1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper smelters, are countered by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season for consumption. With the global electrolytic copper inventory starting to accumulate, the upward space for copper prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 80,560, up 20 from the previous day; the trading volume was 83,386 lots, down 18,572; the open interest was 224,672 lots, up 1,550; the inventory was 24,103 tons, down 994 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,980, down 10; the Shanghai copper basis was 420, down 30; the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes, such as a 20 - point decrease in Guangzhou and East China [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,951.5, down 58.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 94,325; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 87.61, down 8.59 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.196, up 0.08; the total inventory was 213,171, up 1,962 [2]. 3.2 Important News - **Macro - news**: The US Senate - version "Six - Pretty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with potential fiscal deficit expansion. The Trump administration's tariff policy affects consumption, and the US ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with expected rate - cut months being September, October, or December [3]. - **Industry - specific News**: Some copper mines and smelters faced disruptions. For example, Las Bambas and Constancia had copper concentrate transportation interruptions; several smelters, including Pasar in the Philippines, Rosh Pinah in Namibia, and Altonorte in Chile, had production suspensions. Meanwhile, some new projects were progressing, such as the Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan's projects and other copper - related projects in China [4]. 3.3 Downstream Market - Some copper rod enterprises plan to cut production to reduce inventory in July. The capacity utilization rates of various copper products, including refined copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper foil, and copper pipes, are expected to decline in July, except for the potentially rising capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rod production [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, it is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 81,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (4.6 - 4.9 and 5.2 - 5.5) [5].

| | | 尿素早评20250704: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 変化值 变化值 单位 7月3日 7月2日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1699.00 | 1698.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% 0.56% 0.00% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1713.00 | 1710.00 | 3.00 | 0.18% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1737.00 | 1739.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1800.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 10.00 0.00 | | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 1780.00 | 20.00 | 1.12% | | (小顆粒) | | 河北 ...

| 铅锌日评20250704：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.44% | | | | | | | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.41% | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -245.00 5.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - | | | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.47 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | | -64.00 -5.10 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 10.00 40.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -3 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250704："反内卷"情绪推动，硅系价格强势上行 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 8,400.00 0.60% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,010.00 -2.44% | | | | | | | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | | | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 34.50 0.00% | | | | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 35,050.00 0.00% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 -550.00 - 基差 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 8,400.00 0.60% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 8,400.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly, affecting the PX trend. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price has fallen back to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, with effective support from rigid demand. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise in the future depends on whether there are more unexpected factors [2]. - PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Its own fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but there is no inventory accumulation. If the polyester production cut increases in the future, PTA will be relatively weaker [2]. - The supply of polyester bottle - chips may decrease, and the market liquidity is expected to tighten. The downstream terminal has rigid demand, and the restocking sentiment may improve [2]. - The polyester industry chain's demand is not optimistic currently, and it generally fluctuates with the cost. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $67.00 per barrel, down 0.67% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.80 per barrel, down 0.45% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $577.38 per ton on July 3, 2025, up 0.90%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $728.50 per ton, down 1.49% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00 per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.59%; the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6740 yuan per ton, down 0.74% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 1.00%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4881 yuan per ton, down 0.87% [1]. - **PR and Polyester Bottle - chips**: The closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5894 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.77%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6000 yuan per ton, down 0.08% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8875 yuan per ton on July 3, 2025, down 0.84%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6760 yuan per ton, down 0.07% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, and bottle - chip factories remained unchanged on July 3, 2025, at 78.98%, 76.84%, 88.52%, and 75.15% respectively. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms decreased by 3.73 percentage points to 61.22% [1]. - The sales - to - production ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 33.00%, 46.00%, and 51.00% respectively on July 3, 2025. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 7.00 percentage points, and that of polyester staple fiber decreased by 14.00 percentage points, while that of polyester chips increased by 20.00 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - The US - Vietnam trade agreement and Trump's tariff statement have boosted market sentiment. The recent sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices have affected the PX trend, and the PX price has fallen back. The PX inventory is at a historical low, and the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PTA spot market atmosphere is not good, the spot basis continues to weaken, and the PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a near - five - year high in relative terms. The polyester production cut plan is limited, and the PTA is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market price has declined. The supply side of bottle - chips may reduce production, and the downstream terminal has rigid demand [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4746 yuan per ton (-0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 1.06 million lots. PX is affected by maintenance news, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6740 yuan per ton (-0.30%) with a daily trading volume of 222,900 lots. PR follows the cost, and the 2509 contract closed at 5894 yuan per ton (-0.47%) with a daily trading volume of 47,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].

| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 单 | 位 | 值 | 前 | 值 | ...

供给端，天齐绝仙痛下降林布什题厂3万吨湿笼项目或于25年01月投产后总产销约达到201万吨年，但是国产进口1艘矿价格视现升高3+高)但见处低位，或使国内智障了月生产进口量环化减少增加；中国碳敏锂 产能所工率(生产量;较上周升高(增加)，广东浩海锂电000吨电池级碳酸铝;能氮于25年1月产，紫金团式银炭路每电池级碳酸型:3.57吨产销将于2年12月建成股产，中国阀银凹工业与电视灯(7月生产量或环比增加) [着加、寂少而供给预期情松，唯保成都遇船产投于5月21日开启检修日数料氢氧化塑产能装换为假酸塑产能，中矿锂业旗下年产2.5万吨肥盐生产线计划停产检修并技双升级为年产7.5吨高纯壁盐项目目建成投产后合 计划有1.1万吨年电池数程盐产销，藏帘门业旗下麻米猪盐脱塑和矿开采项目/年产5.7吨电池级质链裡求得够成智能复目建设期为2年，外购醒年后和担云母情广*庆龄醒目度现金生产成本分别为60.000元/吨左右 致生产利润为负，中国锂军石与管云母及盐湖产顿敏程一体化季度观金生产成本分别为5000和61700及1750元吨左右致生产利润为正正压压，进口窗口关闭，赣锋智业位于阿根廷10aians脸盐湖项目一概况7吨氨化锂 产能2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts, the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs, the traditional consumption off - season, disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the downward trend of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories have led to a relatively strong copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures on July 2, 2025, was 80,540, down 100 from the previous day. The trading volume was 101,958 lots, down 11,491 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 223,122 lots, down 861 lots from the previous day. The inventory was 22,425 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper on July 2, 2025, was 80,208, up 785 from the previous day. The basis of Shanghai copper was 450, up 885 from the previous day. The spot premiums and discounts of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different changes [2]. - **LME Market**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 2, 2025, was 9,943, up 67 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 93,475, down 93,250 from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Macro - level**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit may expand by more than $3 trillion. The Fed may appoint a successor to Chairman Powell in advance. The US ADP employment in June was 33,000, lower than expected, which slightly reduced the probability of no interest - rate cut in July, but the expected time for interest - rate cuts is still September/October/December [3]. - **Upstream**: The copper concentrate transportation of some mines was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Some copper smelters had production disruptions, while some new smelters were expected to be put into production. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July may increase. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to increase, and the import volume may be affected by the closed import window [3]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises may cut production due to high finished - product inventories. The capacity utilization rates of various copper - related downstream industries are expected to decline due to factors such as the traditional consumption off - season and the easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 776.04 yuan/gram, with a change of 0.76 yuan compared to the previous day and - 0.06 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 202,457.00, and the open interest was 33,329.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Gold Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 770.33 yuan/gram, down 2.93 yuan. The trading volume was 29,774.00, and the open interest was 225,294.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8,747.00 yuan/kg, down 63.00 yuan. The trading volume was 323,881.00, and the open interest was 249,023.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 8,737.00 yuan/kg, down 68.00 yuan. The trading volume was 521,320.00, and the open interest was 3,142,008.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,368.70 dollars/ounce, up 30.20 dollars. The trading volume was 129,510.00, and the open interest was 332,177.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.92 dollars/ounce, up 0.55 dollars. The trading volume was 39,724.00, and the open interest was 131,315.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,335.70 dollars/ounce, up 33.20 dollars [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, down 0.20 dollars [1]. Important Information - **US Situation**: The US House - passed "Great Beauty" bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and expand the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/October/December [1]. - **Eurozone Situation**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Situation**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May. The CPI annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The manufacturing and service PMI in June were higher than expected. Due to the GDP decline in April, the expectation of an August rate cut is rising, with 2 - 3 rate cuts expected by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan Situation**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. It may reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 31 - 34 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/kg [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250703: 供应仍有压力,转机在于出口 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 7月2日 | 7月1日 | 变化值 (矩对值) | 変化值 (相对值) 0.95% | | | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1698.00 1710.00 | 1682.00 1694.00 | 16.00 16.00 | | | | | | | | | | 0.94% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1721.00 | 18.00 | 1.05% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1790.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1630.00 | 0.00 30.00 | 0.00% 1.84% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1780.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | (小額粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | ...