Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Upstream coal - head profits are still high, while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor, making methanol valuation relatively expensive. The supply - demand drive of methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. The basis may converge through a decline in the East China spot price. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500, with a unilateral suggestion to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2420 yuan/ton to 2434 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.58%); MA05 rose from 2334 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan/ton (0.60%); MA09 (closing price) increased from 2384 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.84%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In different regions, prices showed various changes. For example, in Taicang, it decreased from 2540 yuan/ton to 2465 yuan/ton, a drop of 75 yuan/ton (- 2.95%); in Shandong, it increased from 2240 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, a rise of 20 yuan/ton (0.89%) [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton and 490 yuan/ton respectively; Yulin Q6000 decreased from 495 yuan/ton to 492.50 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.51%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 433.40 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 460.00 yuan/ton [1] - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit remained at 527.00 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit remained at - 1054.57 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits of Methanol**: Profits of acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - In the international market, 90% of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are restarting. In the domestic market, the main methanol contract MA2509 rose, opening at 2386 yuan/ton, closing at 2404 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 696,255 lots and a position of 736,158 lots, showing a decrease in volume [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading is advised to wait and see. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to go long on MTO profits. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500. This week, attention should be paid to potential macro - level disturbances, such as whether the US tax - cut bill will be passed and whether the US non - farm payroll data will deteriorate [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead Market**: The lead price has been rising due to raw material constraints and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. However, as the market is not yet in the peak - consumption season, there is a risk of inventory accumulation, which may limit the upward momentum of the lead price [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The zinc price has rebounded recently due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances. But after the rebound, it has suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to inventory accumulation. The upside potential is limited, and investors should watch for short - selling opportunities when favorable factors disappear [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price remained unchanged from the previous day, while the Shanghai lead futures main contract closed 0.44% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,063.50 per ton, up 1.20%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.32, down 0.75% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, rising scrap lead - acid battery prices, limited recycler supplies, and strong hoarding sentiment among stores have led to some refineries reducing or halting production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. The inventory of secondary lead products is increasing [1]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve, which may reduce the downward pressure on lead prices [1]. - **Industry News**: A secondary lead smelter in the western region with a capacity of 200,000 tons suspended production in May due to equipment failures and is expected to complete repairs by late July. If equipment debugging goes smoothly, it may resume normal production in August. Recently, domestic reduced lead supplies have been tight, and prices have been firm. Overseas crude lead (mostly from Malaysia) arrived at the port this week, with a known trading volume of about 1,000 tons [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Price Movements**: On July 3, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.05% from the previous day, while the Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed 0.11% lower. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) closed at $2,753.00 per ton, up 1.46%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.07, down 1.55% [1]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have been rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased by 200 yuan/metal ton to 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index rose by $9.98/dry ton to $65.25/dry ton. The production of zinc is showing an increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: The zinc price rebound has reached a level that downstream buyers find unacceptable, and the weak demand has led to mainly just - in - time purchases [1]. - **Industry News**: On July 1, the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.75 per ton, with open interest increasing by 842 to 208,381 contracts [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a strong upward trend on July 3, 2025, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment. In the short - term, both may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises may increase, while the demand from the organic silicon sector is weak. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the market demand is slowing down. The price increase is mainly driven by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment. [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.83% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.70% to 8,950 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 5.73% to 8,210 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Northern large factories have production reduction plans, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. After offsetting, the supply may decrease. [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. The organic silicon sector has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, the price may continue the strong trend, but the upward pressure will increase after the rebound. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material increased by 2.99% to 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material increased by 3.17% to 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material increased by 3.33% to 31.0 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material increased by 3.51% to 29.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.19% to 35,050 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, remaining below 100,000 tons. [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, driven by the long - position sentiment, the price may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify due to limited fundamental improvement. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual operations of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reform. [1] Other Information - On July 1, 2025, the Suzhou Ecological Environment Bureau planned to make a decision on the environmental impact assessment of Suzhou Qizhu New Materials Co., Ltd.'s project. Suzhou Qitian New Materials Co., Ltd. has four holding subsidiaries and three production bases, with a lithium - battery electrolyte additive production capacity of 36,900 tons/year and a functional organic silicon material production capacity of 26,700 tons/year. [1] - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, governing low - price and disorderly competition, and guiding enterprises to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - series products moved down, with significant differentiation in the supply - demand structure and price strength of various varieties. In the second half of the year, the steel market environment remains complex and volatile, facing risks such as supply - demand pressure and cost decline [2]. - The real demand of finished products is stronger than expected. The export maintains a high growth rate, and the domestic demand structure is significantly differentiated. The building material demand continues to decline, while the strip demand is significantly stronger [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore prices had limited downward drive due to high hot - metal demand, with the Platts Index down 8% cumulatively. Scrap steel prices had less pressure, with a 4% cumulative decline in the first half. Coking coal and coke were the weakest, with coking coal down over 30% and coke down about 27% [2][6]. - **Finished Products**: From January to May 2025, crude steel consumption was 374 million tons, down 1.2% year - on - year. The output of finished products remained high, and the steel mills' profitability was stable. Exports maintained a high growth rate, and domestic demand was differentiated. Building material demand declined, while strip demand was strong. The cumulative decline of rebar was 9%, and that of hot - rolled coil was 6% [2][6]. 3.2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Macro**: In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and an expected H1 growth of about 5.3%. Fiscal policy was proactive, and monetary policy was flexible. However, the economy also faced challenges such as a complex external environment and real - estate market adjustments [19]. - **Steel Demand Analysis** - **Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year. Construction and new - start areas declined, and sales showed signs of stabilization. The demand for steel in the real - estate sector will continue to be weak [20][23]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. However, factors such as debt - repayment pressure and consumption - intensity decline may restrict the demand for steel in infrastructure [31]. - **Manufacturing Investment**: From January to May 2025, manufacturing investment showed rapid growth and structural optimization, supported by industrial upgrading, export - structure optimization, and domestic - demand policies [40]. - **Exports**: From January to May 2025, steel exports remained at a high level, with cumulative steel exports of 48.48 million tons, up 8.6% year - on - year, and steel billet exports of 4.72 million tons, up 307% year - on - year. In the second half of 2025, the export volume may decline by 8 - 10 million tons [45]. - **Supply Analysis**: From January to May 2025, pig - iron production was 363 million tons, down 0.1% year - on - year, and crude - steel production was 432 million tons, down 1.7% year - on - year. To meet the energy - saving target, the crude - steel output in 2025 should not exceed 983 million tons. The iron - water output decline may be slightly stronger than that of crude steel, and the pattern of strong strips and weak building materials will continue [51][54]. 3.3. Crude - Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion In the second half of 2025, the steel market environment is still complex. In the off - season, the supply - demand contradiction of finished products has not effectively accumulated, and the basis has weakened. The cost side may decline, and risks of supply - demand pressure and cost decline should be watched out for in the middle and late third quarter [66].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]

| 電視版 | | 碳 酸 锌 8 详20250702: 国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-01 | 2025-06-30 | 2025-06-25 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 62980.00 | 62420.00 | 61180.00 | 560.00 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 62840.00 | 62440.00 | 61080.00 | 400.00 | | | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 62580.00 | 62100.00 | 60880.00 | 480.00 | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 62580.00 | 62100.00 | 60800.00 | 480.00 | | | | 收盘价 | 62780.00 | 62260.00 | 60880.00 | 520.00 | | | 砖酸锂期货 | 成交量(手) | 398387.00 | 389727.00 ...

| 元用用模 贵金属日评20250702: 鲍威尔表示未排除7月降息可能,美国6月ISM制造业PMI小于50 | | | --- | --- | | 持仓量 | | | 18453.00 18237.00 18213.00 216. 00 240. 00 上海黄金 收盘价 772.04 764. 15 771.68 7.89 0. 36 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D | | | 成交重 39118.00 57766.00 35850.00 -18, 648. 00 3, 268. 00 持包量 217596.00 219956.00 209866. 00 -2, 360. 00 7.730.00 价差(近月与远月) 近月连续-远月活跃 -3.86 -1.80 -1. 46 -2. 06 -2. 40 基差(现货与期货) 现货价格-期货价格 -4. 06 -3. 43 -2. 26 -0. 63 -1.80 | | | 收盘价 8810.00 8762. 00 8726.00 48. 00 84. 00 成交重 342536.00 504424.00 606376.00 -161,888.00 -263, 840 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that methanol may experience weak and volatile movements in the short - term. The valuation of methanol is relatively high as upstream coal - based profits are still high while downstream comprehensive profits are relatively poor. The supply - demand drive for methanol is not strong currently, and the basis in the East China region needs to converge. With the easing of the geopolitical situation, the restart of most Iranian plants, and the supply from the mainland and South America, the tight supply of port spot has been alleviated, and the basis may converge through a decline in spot prices. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trade and choose the opportunity to go long on MTO profits [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2413 yuan/ton to 2420 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.29%; MA05 rose from 2325 yuan/ton to 2334 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%; MA09 increased from 2381 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.13% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang dropped from 2790 yuan/ton to 2540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.96%; in Shandong, it rose from 2230 yuan/ton to 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%; in Guangdong, it increased from 2435 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.41%; in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, there was no change; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it dropped from 2300 yuan/ton to 2250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%; in Hubei, it decreased from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 377 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (430 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (490 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (495 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 493.40 yuan/ton to 433.40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.16%; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 460 yuan/ton [1]. - **MTO Profits**: Northwest MTO profit decreased from 562 yuan/ton to 527 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.23%; East China MTO profit increased from - 1183.07 yuan/ton to - 1054.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.86% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Acetic acid profit increased from 347 yuan/ton to 351.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.37%; MTBE profit increased from 139.12 yuan/ton to 159.88 yuan/ton, a rise of 14.92%; formaldehyde profit increased from - 262.40 yuan/ton to - 233.60 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.98%; the profit of another product increased from 518 yuan/ton to 602 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.22% [1]. c) Market Information - **Domestic Market**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2384 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 819352 lots and an open interest of 756727, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Market**: It is reported that 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are in the process of restarting. Attention should be paid to the subsequent start - up and shipping situation [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]