Hong Yuan Qi Huo
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沪铜日评:美联储未来降息路径偏鹰使铜价承压-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 06:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's future hawkish interest - rate cut path weighs on copper prices, but the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be weak first and then strong [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,790, down 940 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,158 lots, an increase of 20,402 lots; the open interest was 171,912 lots, a decrease of 19,604 lots; the inventory was 19,126 tons, a decrease of 822 tons [2]. - **Spot Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,745, down 610 from the previous day. The average price of SMM flat - water copper's opening premium/discount was 20, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of SMM premium copper's opening premium/discount was 100, down 5 from the previous day [2]. - **LME Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on September 18, 2025, was 9,946, down 28 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 71.09, up 0.04 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 160.28, down 10.03 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 18, 2025, was 4.6, down 0.1 from the previous day. The total inventory was 315,206, an increase of 2,338 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decline compared with last week. The supply of scrap copper is tight and production is cut, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The expected tight supply - demand of domestic copper concentrates makes the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo face power - supply problems in September 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, and the decline in copper prices stimulates the downstream purchasing sentiment to warm up [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then layout long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper; the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [2].
贵金属日评:美联储降息预期路径偏鹰使贵金属价格承压-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 06:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Fed's dot - plot in September shows 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 and only 1 in 2026, while the market expects 5 rate cuts from Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Sep 2026, indicating the Fed's future rate - cut path is hawkish. Considering Trump's pressure, geopolitical risks like the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices may be weak first and then strong [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/gram, down 5.72 yuan from the previous day and 5.81 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 49,462, and the holding volume was 207,592 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 9,811 yuan/ten - gram, down 65 yuan from the previous day and 223 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 457,876, and the holding volume was 395,854 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce, down 2.20 dollars from the previous day and 16.40 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 176,290, and the holding volume was 388,882 [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price was 42.10 dollars/ounce, up 0.11 dollars from the previous day and 0.45 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 17,105, and the holding volume was 131,335 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest drop in nearly four years [1]. - Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasuries reached a new high in July. Japan's holdings hit a new high in over a year, the UK increased its holdings by over $40 billion for two consecutive months, China's holdings were at a 16 - year low, and Canada's holdings decreased by $57.1 billion [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly layout long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1].
碳酸锂日评:低位震荡-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 03:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 18, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The current market trading was weak, the basis changed from discount to premium, the price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. Both supply and demand were strong, the upstream inventory pressure was not significant, and the resumption of production of spodumene mines was actively progressing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of downstream replenishment. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 502,269 (+158,406), and the open interest was 281,411 (-13,213). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all decreased compared to the previous day. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 570 yuan/ton higher than the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica remained unchanged. The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different degrees of changes [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate powder increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat. In September, the production of lithium manganate powder and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - On September 18, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts were 39,354 tons (+120), the social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters and others decreased, and the downstream inventory was tight [1]. Industry News - Bandera now expects to achieve a post - tax net present value of $1.45 billion (previously estimated at $1.31 billion) due to increased reserves and mine design optimization. Saycona Mining's expansion plan for the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec, Canada, will significantly improve project economics by increasing production and reducing costs. The annual average output of spodumene concentrate will increase from 192,000 tons to 315,000 tons, and the unit cost will decrease [1].
宏源期货:PX&PTA&PR早评-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:30
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner. The PX view is rated -1, while the PTA and PR views are rated 0 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 18, 2025, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.75%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan dropped by 1.56%, and the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) in FOB Korea decreased by 0.67%. The spot price of para - xylene (PX) in CFR China Main Port fell by 1.10% [1]. - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main - contract decreased by 0.98%, while the settlement price increased by 0.21%. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.09%, and the CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA also showed slight increases [1]. - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main - contract decreased by 1.30%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.27%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged, and the PXN spread increased by 0.15%, while the PX - MX spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main - contract decreased by 0.89%, and the settlement price increased by 0.38%. The market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets decreased [1]. - **Downstream Price**: The CCFEI price indices of most polyester products remained stable or decreased slightly, such as the price index of polyester bottle - chips decreased by 0.51% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain decreased by 1.59%. The PTA factory load rate remained unchanged, the polyester factory load rate increased by 0.22%, the bottle - chip factory load rate remained unchanged, and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2.01% [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament decreased by 1.61%, the sales rate of polyester staple fiber increased by 8.96%, and the sales rate of polyester chips decreased by 33.45% [1]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped operating on September 5 [2]. Important News and Market Analysis - **PX**: On September 17, due to Ukraine's harassment of Baltic ports, Russia's weekly crude oil exports plummeted, and the overall positive impact on the crude oil supply - demand situation was limited. The cost support for PX was insufficient. The domestic PX operating load was at a high level, and some device maintenance plans were postponed. The demand - side PTA factory maintenance expectations increased, and there was only one transaction heard during the day. The supply of PX increased, and although it was the peak season for downstream polyester, the new orders and load did not exceed expectations, and the PXN was expected to operate weakly [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals did not change significantly. The influence of the Fed's interest - rate cut was overdrawn, the crude oil market declined during the session, the sales of polyester filament were flat, and the PTA market increase was limited. The supply of PTA was expected to increase in the short term, and the new PTA device maintenance plans from October to November had limited impact on the current market [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and bottle - chip futures first rose and then fell. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and some were lowered in the afternoon. The downstream terminals were cautious and the trading atmosphere was cold [2].
镍与不锈钢日评20250919:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, on September 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with decreased trading volume and open interest, and LME nickel dropped 0.45%. The spot market had average trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Considering the supply - demand situation and inventory changes, with the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - For stainless steel, on September 18, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with increased trading volume and open interest; the spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market 3.1.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 840 - 890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 81,612 hands (- 9,122), and the open interest was 55,044 hands (- 3,782). LME nickel prices also declined, with the 3 - month nickel official price at 15,280 dollars (- 27 dollars), and the closing price of the electronic trading session at 15,335 dollars [2]. - The price differences between different nickel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) showed certain changes. For example, the basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 830 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production schedules in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules decreased; stainless - steel plants' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [2]. 3.1.3 Global Supply - Demand Situation - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), in July 2025, global refined nickel production was 320,100 tons, consumption was 284,000 tons, with a supply surplus of 36,000 tons. From January to July, global refined nickel production was 2,237,600 tons, consumption was 1,993,400 tons, with a supply surplus of 244,300 tons. In July, global nickel ore production was 350,700 tons, and from January to July, it was 2,326,200 tons [2]. 3.2 Stainless - Steel Market 3.2.1 Price and Trading Data - On September 18, the stainless - steel main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated downward, with a trading volume of 175,834 hands (+ 5,708) and an open interest of 132,228 hands (+ 4,478). The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened [2]. - The price differences between different stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month and far - month) and the basis (spot - futures) also changed. For example, the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan [2]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory - Supply: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in September [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 596,300 tons (- 15,400 tons) [2]. 3.2.3 Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - For stainless steel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2].
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:13
镍与不锈钢日评20250919:降息落地,上行驱动不足 | 2025-09-17 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-11 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 120940.00 | 121790.00 | 120050.00 | -850.00 | 期货近月合约 | ~~~ | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ~~~ | 121110.00 | 121990.00 | 120620.00 | -880.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | W | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 122180.00 | -840.00 | 121340.00 | 120790.00 | | | | | | W | 期货连三合约 | 121480.00 | 122370.00 | 120950.00 | -890.00 | 收盘价 | > | 120940.00 | 12179 ...
尿素早评:做多机会或逐步到来-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain level of cost - effectiveness, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices: expected supply - side renovation of old facilities (about 20% of urea facilities are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity), and expected improvement in demand - side exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October due to the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1670 yuan/ton on September 18, down 11 yuan or 0.65% from September 17; UR05 closed at 1734 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.52%; UR09 closed at 1755 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong was 1650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.61%; Shanxi was 1530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.65%; Henan was 1660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 84 yuan/ton on September 18, down 1 yuan from September 17. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].
宏源期货日刊-20250919
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:07
Group 1: Price Information - Spot price of naphtha CFR Japan on 2025/9/18 was $599.38 per ton, down 1.56% from the previous value [1] - Price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia on 2025/9/17 was $851.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Factory - average price of ethylene oxide in East China on 2025/9/19 was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Spot price of methanol MA on 2025/9/18 was 2,280 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Pit - mouth price (tax - included brown coal) of coal (Q3500 in Inner Mongolia) on 2025/9/18 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,268 yuan per ton, down 0.67% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG主力合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,282 yuan per ton, down 0.16% from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约收盘价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - DCE EG近月合约结算价 on 2025/9/18 was 4,338 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol (MEG in East China) on 2025/9/18 was 4,370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic on 2025/9/18 was 4,345 yuan per ton, down 0.80% from the previous value [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/9/18 was 56 yuan per ton, up 7 yuan from the previous value [1] - Basis on 2025/9/18 was 77 yuan per ton, down 6 yuan from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester DTY on 2025/9/18 was 8,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester POY on 2025/9/18 was 7,000 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber on 2025/9/18 was 6,465 yuan per ton, down 0.08% from the previous value [1] - CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips on 2025/9/18 was 5,820 yuan per ton, down 0.51% from the previous value [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (comprehensive) on 2025/9/18 was 61.32%, down 0.88% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (petroleum - based) on 2025/9/18 was 63.52%, down 1.48% from the previous value [1] - Operating rate of ethylene glycol (coal - based) on 2025/9/18 was 58.14%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories on 2025/9/18 was 89.00%, up 0.22% from the previous value [1] - PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on 2025/9/18 was 67.55%, up 2.01% from the previous value [1] Group 3: Cash - flow and Gross - profit Situation - Cash - flow of naphtha - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $126.19 per ton, down 0.69% from the previous value [1] - Cash - flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol (outer - market) on 2025/9/17 was - $139.15 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG on 2025/9/18 was - 1,485.02 yuan per ton, down 19.74% from the previous value [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method device on 2025/9/18 was 382.30 yuan per ton, down 25.66 yuan from the previous value [1]
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地上行驱动不足-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 13:16
Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Driving Force Insufficient" [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel near - month contract was 121,790 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 90,734 lots, down 13,858 lots; the open interest was 58,829 lots, down 7,709 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,250 dollars/ton, down 165 dollars from the previous day; the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 6,290 lots, up 1,202 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - first contracts was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the LME nickel 0 - 3 months was - 182.88 dollars/ton [2] - The basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 990 yuan/ton; the basis of LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price was - 195 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,167 tons, down 26 tons; the LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 214,602 tons, down 220,866 tons; the total LME nickel inventory was 228,468 tons, down 7,602 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. The nickel ore price remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production scheduling in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron destocking. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased. With the Fed's rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest selling short on rallies [2] Group 3: Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 170,126 lots, down 60,650 lots; the open interest was 127,750 lots, down 3,036 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month and continuous - first contracts was 20 yuan/ton; the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 95,265 tons, down 480 tons; last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 96,600 tons, down 15,400 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated at a low level, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. In terms of inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased. On the supply side, stainless - steel production scheduling increased in September. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the high - nickel pig iron price and high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest waiting and seeing [2] Group 4: Company News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's 2025 Q2 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea operated by MCC Group's Ramu Nickel Cobalt had a production of 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal (up 22.87% year - on - year) and 787 tons of cobalt metal in this quarter. The MHP nickel sales volume was 7,846 tons (up 27.93% year - on - year), and the cobalt sales volume was 719 tons. The cash cost of producing MHP and removing by - products in this quarter was 2.68 dollars/pound, equivalent to 5,908 dollars/ton [2]
宏源期货农产品早报-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 13:09
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The ethylene market is volatile, with supply being tight and prices fluctuating. Investment in related products should be cautious, and attention should be paid to market trends and changes in supply and demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Price and Volume Data**: There are price and volume data for various products such as polyester, ethylene glycol, and coal, including different regions and time points, like on September 17 - 18, 2025. For example, there are data on prices like -1511.08, 6300.00, 2287.50 etc., and percentage changes such as (6.17), 9.00, 2.00 etc. [1] - **Market Situation**: The market shows a complex situation. The ethylene market is tight, and the polyester market has supply - demand differences. The market is affected by factors such as production inspections, inventory, and trading volume. For instance, the supply of some products is weak, and the market is in a state of shock [2] - **Investment Advice**: Investment in the ethylene - related market should be cautious. Investors need to pay attention to market information, supply - demand relationships, and price fluctuations [2]