Group 1: Product Price Information - The CFR price of naphtha in the East Asia region was $555.57 per ton on September 23, 2022, up 0.19% from the previous day [1] - The price of ethylene in North America was $851.00 per ton on September 23, 2022, down 0.9% from the previous day [1] - The average ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region was 6,300 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The spot price of methanol was 220 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the main contract was 4,290 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, up 0.23% from the previous day [1] - The settlement price of the near - month contract was 4,338 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price difference between the near - and far - month contracts was 9 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022 [1] - The basis was 88 yuan per ton on September 23, 2022 [1] Group 2: Cost and Production Information - The comprehensive cost of ethylene glycol was 62.20% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The cost of ethylene glycol produced from naphtha was 60.00% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol production was 58.14% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The industrial load rate of PTA plants was 89.00% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The load rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang's PTA industry was 66.57% on September 22, 2022, unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 3: Profit and Cash Flow Information - The after - tax gross profit of ethylene glycol produced from naphtha was $149.2 per ton on September 22, 2022 [1] - The after - tax gross profit of the coal synthesis plant was 366.81 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022 [1] - The price index of polyester was 820 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, down 0.29% from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester esters was 695 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.72% from the previous day [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber was 644 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.39% from the previous day [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips was 60 yuan per ton on September 22, 2022, up 0.52% from the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the double festivals, leading to a low - level repair of steel prices. However, the rebound height may be limited as the supply - demand gap in September, although alleviated, remains at a high level. After the contraction of per - ton steel profit, the driving force for further decline slows down. The raw material varieties show obvious differentiation, and short - term attention should be paid to cost fluctuations. Currently, the long - short game is intense, and prices remain fluctuating within the range. The rebound pressure is concerned with off - peak electricity cost, and cautious operation is recommended [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3260 yuan (+70), and the price of hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan (+20). As of September 18, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 17,800 tons. The inventory in steel mills decreased by 11,400 tons, and the social inventory increased by 62,700 tons. The apparent demand was 8.5033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [5] - **Profit**: As of September 19, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3135 yuan, with a profit of about 95 yuan per ton; the cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coil was about 185 yuan per ton. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of East China rebar was about 3335 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3208 yuan. The profit of flat - rate electricity was about - 245 yuan per ton, and the profit of off - peak electricity was about - 118 yuan per ton [5] - **Scrap Steel**: As of September 18, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 32.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 531,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,300 tons. The daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 505,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons, with an increase rate of 5.1%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.325 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,500 tons, with an increase rate of 0.9% [6] - **Macro Data**: In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 1.7%. The pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared with 2023, with a decline rate of 2.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron was 579 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 672 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [20] - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.85% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 19.95% year - on - year. From January to August, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.43109 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing start - up area was 398.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%. The housing completion area was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [28][31] 3.2 Main Variety Basis, Main Variety Inter - Period, Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has been falling from a high level this week [42] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Long - Process Supply**: As of September 19, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points, with an increase rate of 0.19%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4700 tons, with an increase rate of 0.20% [45] - **Short - Process Supply**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 32.3% (- 2.8). As of September 19, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 13 yuan (- 59) [48] - **Scrap Steel Arrival, Consumption, and Inventory**: The daily arrival of 255 steel mills increased, the daily consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [6] 3.4 Demand - Related Data - **Building Materials Transaction**: The transaction volume data of building materials in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [64][67][68] - **Cement Mill Start - Up Rate**: The average start - up load of cement mills has increased to a certain extent. The average start - up load of national cement mills is 44.88%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points, and the increase rate has narrowed by 1.97 percentage points. The demand growth is still weak, and most regions have no obvious increase and are still in a fluctuating state [73] - **Real Estate Sales**: The high - frequency data of real estate sales in 30 cities are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [75] 3.5 Product - Specific Supply and Demand - **Rebar**: This week, the original sample rebar output was 2.0645 million tons (- 54,800), including 1.7972 million tons of long - process output (- 48,500) and 267,300 tons of short - process output (- 6300). The original sample rebar mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons (- 15,600), the social inventory was 4.8521 million tons (- 20,200), and the total inventory was 6.5028 million tons (- 35,800) [61][78] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the hot - rolled coil output was 326,490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons. The apparent demand was 321,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,400 tons. In terms of inventory, the mill inventory increased by 4200 tons, the social inventory increased by 42,500 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 46,700 tons [81] 3.6 Other Data - **Cold - Hot Price Difference**: As of September 19, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 510 yuan/ton (- 10) [88] - **Export Situation**: As of September 19, the FOB export price in China was 485 US dollars (+6), the export profit was - 5.7 US dollars (- 2), and the outbound volume of 32 domestic major ports was 2.8305 million tons (+122,200) [92]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to cut rates several times in Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Dec 2026, with the expected timing of rate cuts in 2026 postponed compared to last week However, considering Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, the unresolved geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 826.00 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.47 yuan compared to the previous day and -2.03 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 46,932.00, and the open interest was 208,096.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of -2.03 yuan compared to the previous day and 1.47 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 49,462.00, and the open interest was 262.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 41.20 dollars compared to the previous day and 46.00 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 207,139.00, and the open interest was 387,119.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,463,535.53 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,643.70 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 33.60 dollars compared to the previous day and 19.45 dollars compared to last week [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 9,971.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-22, with a change of 136.00 yuan compared to the previous day and -46.00 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 356,647.00, and the open interest was 433,982.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,159,443.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 43.37 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.27 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.30 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 16,412.00, and the open interest was 131,247.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 524,043,283.40 [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 42.24 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 0.38 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.16 dollars compared to last week [1] Important Information - The US Senate rejected short-term spending bills from both parties, and Trump threatened that the US government is likely to shut down on Oct 1st [1] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with two unexpected dissenting votes It started to reduce its ETF holdings, selling 330 billion yen worth of ETFs annually, causing the Japanese stock market to decline [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices fall For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850 For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20250922: Pre-holiday Stockpiling and High Prices May Cause Copper Prices to Fluctuate" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The Fed's future interest rate cut path is hawkish, but pre-holiday stockpiling before the National Day and high copper prices affect downstream purchasing willingness, which may cause Shanghai copper prices to fluctuate at high levels [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,910, up 290 from the previous day; trading volume was 48,845 lots, a decrease of 41,669 lots; open interest was 116,552 lots, a decrease of 11,308 lots; inventory was 31,838 tons, a decrease of 631 tons; the basis was 80, down 290 [3] - **LME Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,996.5, up 50.5; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 64.9, up 6.19; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 153.2, up 7.081 [3] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6305, up 0.01; total inventory was 316,774, an increase of 3,932 [3] Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The tight supply - demand expectation of scrap copper leads to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [3] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3] Trading Strategy - Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the pressure level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the pressure level around 10,200 - 10,500 for LME copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the pressure level around 4.8 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [3]

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250922: Low-level Fluctuation [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On September 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened low and moved high, with the LME nickel falling 0.01%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure after the Fed's interest rate cut, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [doc id not provided]. - Stainless Steel: On September 19, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the spot market trading was weak, with the basis premium narrowing. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [doc id not provided]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: For Shanghai nickel futures on September 19, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,500 yuan/ton, 121,920 yuan/ton, 121,340 yuan/ton, and 122,160 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 560 yuan, 620 yuan, 580 yuan, and 680 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 62,653 lots (-18,959), and the open interest was 50,421 lots (-4,623) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [doc id not provided]. - **LME Data**: The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,320 US dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 US dollars, and the trading volume was - 1,108 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the stainless steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on September 19 were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, and 12,980 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan, - 15 yuan, - 15 yuan, and - 10 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the stainless steel active contract was 116,925 lots (-58,909), and the open interest was 131,185 lots (-1,043) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 593,400 tons (-2,900) [doc id not provided]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventory accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with increased domestic production in September and increased production in Indonesia, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profitability expanded [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [doc id not provided]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in September [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [doc id not provided]. Group 5: Cost Analysis - For stainless steel, the price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [doc id not provided]. Group 6: Industry News - LME is making important adjustments to its Class 5 membership system to simplify and strengthen the brand registration process. From February 20, 2026, only approved brand registration service providers will be eligible to submit metal brand registration applications to INE, making the process for metal producers to become LME - recognized delivery brands more transparent and efficient. Class 1 to Class 4 members can still assist with brand applications as usual, and the current process remains unchanged [doc id not provided].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, etc. all declined compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from -0.44% to -1.40% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE TA contracts (including main and near - month contracts) and PTA spot prices all decreased, with decline rates between -1.33% and -1.58% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PR contracts and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East and South China decreased, with decline rates from -0.68% to -1.43% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester fibers and slices decreased, with the decline rate of polyester bottle - chips reaching -1.03% [2] Production and Sales - The开工 rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on September 19, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filaments increased by 2.43%, while those of polyester staple fibers and polyester chips decreased by 10.19% and 16.55% respectively [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] PX Market Summary - **Important Information**: Last week, the PX price was stagnant and then declined. By Friday, the absolute price decreased by 1.9% to 816 dollars/ton CFR, and the weekly average price decreased by 0.5% to 830 dollars/ton CFR. Economic concerns led to a decline in international oil prices, squeezing the cost support of PX. The domestic PX operation remained at a high level, while the PTA factory maintenance increased and polyester demand was weak [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The PX2511 contract closed at 6594 yuan/ton (-2.51%). The domestic PX operation remained high, overseas devices were relatively stable, and the short - term overseas operation would increase further. The PTA maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the short - term benefits would be under pressure due to poor supply - demand [2] PTA Market Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The TA2601 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton (-2.21%). The cost support was insufficient, the PTA spot supply was abundant, and the market sentiment was weak. The polyester product sales were mediocre, and the demand peak season had not started [2] PR Market Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5750 - 5870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - chip futures were weak, the supply - side quotes mostly declined, and the trading atmosphere was light [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The 2511 contract closed at 5762 yuan/ton (-1.97%). The bottle - chip supply - side operation was stable, the market spot supply was abundant, and the downstream terminals made rigid purchases at low prices [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renewal and transformation, as the proportion of urea devices over 20 years old is about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, urea exports from September to October are quite promising. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea is relatively limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price (Closing Price) - UR01: On September 19, it was 1661.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan or 0.54% from September 18 [1] - UR05: On September 19, it was 1722.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan or 0.17% from September 18 [1] - UR09: On September 19, it was 1744.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan or 0.06% from September 18 [1] Domestic Spot Price (Small - Granule) - Shandong: Remained at 1640.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Shanxi: On September 19, it was 1510.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.66% from September 18 [1] - Henan: On September 19, it was 1640.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan or 0.61% from September 18 [1] - Hebei: Remained at 1680.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Northeast: Remained at 1660.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Jiangsu: Remained at 1650.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong Spot - UR: On September 19, it was - 82.00 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan from September 18 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On September 19, it was - 61.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from September 18 [1] Upstream Cost - Anthracite Price: In Henan, it remained at 1000.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Shanxi, it remained at 880.00 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it remained at 2930.00 yuan/ton [1] Downstream Price - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price in Henan: Remained at 2520.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19 [1] - Melamine Price: In Shandong, it remained at 5083.00 yuan/ton from September 18 to 19; in Jiangsu, it remained at 5200.00 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1672 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1661 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1666 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 01 contract on dips [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - On September 19, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market trading was fair, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Considering cost, spodumene concentrate prices rose, as did mica prices. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, with output from different raw materials rising. In terms of downstream demand, lithium iron phosphate production and ternary material production increased last week. In September, lithium cobaltate and lithium phosphate production schedules increased, and power battery production was basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed in August, 3C shipments were average, and energy - storage battery production increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased by 130 tons to 39484 tons, social inventory decreased, with smelters and others destocking, and downstream restocking. Overall, the current supply and demand are both strong, upstream inventory pressure is not large, and as downstream lithium mine resumption is actively advancing, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate at a low level. One should be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mine - end reserve reports [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 19, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract were 73760 yuan/ton, 73960 yuan/ton, 74040 yuan/ton, and 73960 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 1140 yuan/ton, 1100 yuan/ton, 1100 yuan/ton, and 1100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 370359 hands (- 131910), and the open interest was 281264 hands (- 147) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 160 yuan/ton, the spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1290 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - **Spodumene Concentrate**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 842 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Mica**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1150 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Phospho - lithium - aluminum Stone**: The average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5770 yuan/ton, and the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7215 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Salt Prices - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 73500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 71250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, coarse - particle, domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, micron - powder type, domestic) was 78970 yuan/ton [1]. Other Battery Material Prices - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 33630 yuan/ton, the average price of mid - to high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate was 32235 yuan/ton, and the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate was 29430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: The average price of lithium cobaltate (60%, 4.35V, domestic) was 236500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electrolyte**: The average price of electrolyte for ternary power batteries was 22250 yuan/ton, the average price of electrolyte for lithium iron phosphate batteries was 18250 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolyte for lithium cobaltate batteries was 0 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate were 39484 tons (+ 130) [1]. - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137531 tons, with smelters and others destocking and downstream restocking [1]. News and Information - Argentina exported 8099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, with 6528 tons exported to China [1]. - The president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association stated that many domestic alumina enterprises' projects are accelerating, and lithium battery raw material enterprises should rationally judge the industry scale and supply - demand relationship [1]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [1].

Group 1: Price Information - The spot price of bottle - grade chips is 5820 yuan/ton, with a - 1% change [1] - The CFR Japan naphtha price is 96.5 yuan/ton, with a - 980% change [1] - The Northeast Asia ethylene price is 46.8 yuan/ton, with a - 500% change [1] - The ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China is 6300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol MA spot price is 4022 yuan/ton, with a - 4500% change [1] - The tax - included pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 90.2 yuan/ton, with a - 900% change [1] - The DCE EG主力合约收盘价 is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change; the settlement price is 5042 yuan/ton, with a - 8000% change; the near - month contract closing price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change; the near - month contract settlement price is 3043 yuan/ton, with a - 3000% change [1] - The market intermediate price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China is 6043 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of MEG inner - plate is 4043 yuan/ton, with a - 400% change [1] - The near - far month price difference of MEG is 9.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 6.0 to 23.0 [1] - The basis of MEG is 8.7 yuan/ton, with a change from 7.0 to 10 [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 5085 yuan/ton, with a - 5000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY is 5070 yuan/ton, with a - 0000% change [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber is 4064 yuan/ton, with a - 6000% change [1] Group 2: Operating Conditions - The overall ethylene glycol operating rate is 2.6%, with a change from 1.2 [1] - The operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 5.6%, with a change from 3.2 [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 8.5%, with a change from 8.4 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories is 9.8%, with a change from 9.0 [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 7.6%, with a change from 7.5 [1] Group 3: Cash - flow Situation - The post - tax gross profit of MTO - made MEG is 497 yuan/ton, with a change from 1402 [1] - The post - tax device gross profit of coal - based syngas method is 66.3 yuan/ton [1] - The external - plate price of naphtha - made ethylene glycol is 19.0 yuan/ton, with a change from - 12955 [1] - The external - plate price of ethylene - made ethylene glycol is 39.5 yuan/ton, with a change from 13150 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips. The current urea price has dropped to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the urea valuation being cheap. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the future: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, the space for further decline in the current urea price is relatively limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices (closing prices): UR01 decreased from 1681.00 yuan/ton to 1670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; UR05 decreased from 1734.00 yuan/ton to 1725.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52%; UR09 decreased from 1755.00 yuan/ton to 1745.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1650.00 yuan/ton to 1640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61%; Shanxi decreased from 1530.00 yuan/ton to 1520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%; Henan decreased from 1660.00 yuan/ton to 1650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60%; Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The direct difference between Shandong spot and UR decreased from - 84.00 yuan/ton to - 85.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.00 yuan/ton; the spread between 01 - 05 decreased from - 53.00 yuan/ton to - 55.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.00 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The anthracite price in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930.00 yuan/ton and 2520.00 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5083.00 yuan/ton and 5200.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1662 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1670 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1671 yuan/ton. The 2601 position was 286,823 lots [1]. Long - Short Logic and Trading Strategy - Long - short logic: Urea is cost - effective, with low upstream profits. On the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned devices (20 - year - old devices account for about 20% and the comprehensive operating rate is close to 80%, with little idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October [1]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract on dips [1].