| 资讯 1.美国7月JOLTs职位空缺数量意外从6月向下修正后的736万降至718万,预期为737.8万,为10个月未最低水平。 | | --- | | 9月3日,沪铁主力合约依位震荡,成交量为125550手（-3232）,持仓堂为84729手(-6033),伦铁涨0.41%。观货币场成交较 弱,基差升水缩小。供您端,银矿价格持平,上周铁矿到施重城少,港口库存照库;铁铁厂亏损幅处收窄,8月国内产量增 | | 加,印尼产量增加,银铁去库:9月国内电解银桃产增加,出口盈利缩小。需求端,三元排产减少:不锈钢厂排产培加:合 模 | | 金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LME增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面编松,美联储 | | 降息预期反复,印尼骚乱引发担忧,预计银价宽幅震荡。操作上,建议观望。(观点评分:0) | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级 投资集略 | | 9月3日,不锈钢主力合约低位震荡,成交量为87549手(-43080),特仓量为86864手(-4171);现货市场低价成交较弱,基差 | | 升水扩大。摩存未看,上羽所库存减少,上周300系社会库存为62270 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, as the current domestic situation shows strong supply and weak demand, but from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high; from a driving perspective, there are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: supply - side has an expectation of old - device renovation (about 20% of urea devices are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has an expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 3, UR01 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.83% from September 2; UR05 closed at 1757 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.68%; UR09 closed at 1658 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 1.13% [1] Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 30 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to - 43 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or 0.19% to 5166 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1752 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 232,728 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Information - Crude oil price (CFR, Northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was $605.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethylene price index (Northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was $605.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Upstream cost (northeast Asia, US dollars/ton): On September 2, 2025, it was $841.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Epoxyethane ex - factory price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 4, 2025, it was 6,300.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Methanol spot price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 2,230.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Inner Mongolia brown coal price (tax - included, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 290.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Main contract closing price (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, the main contract closing price was 4,331.00, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous value; the settlement price was 4,340.00, a 0.84% decrease compared to the previous settlement price; the nearby - month contract closing price was 4,338.00, a 0.23% increase compared to the previous value; the settlement price was 4,376.00, a 0.14% decrease compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethanol market price (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 4,430.00, a 0.89% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Ethanol price index (East China region, RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 4,420.00, a 0.11% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Near - far price difference (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 31.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Comprehensive ethanol price: On September 3, 2025, it was 89.00, a 3.00% increase compared to the previous value [1]. Production and Operation Information - Production chain load rate of polyester (PTA factory): On September 3, 2025, it was 87.99%, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Production chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms (PTA): On September 3, 2025, it was 62.03%, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit Information - After - tax gross profit of coal - based methanol plant (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 138.01, a decrease compared to the previous value [1]. Product Price Index Information - Polyester price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 8,750.00, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Polyester ester price: On September 3, 2025, it was 1,200, with no change compared to the previous value [1]. - Polyester staple fiber price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 6,510.00, a 0.1% increase compared to the previous value [1]. - Bottle - grade chip price index (RMB/ton): On September 3, 2025, it was 860.00, a 0.34% increase compared to the previous value [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, considering the cooling sentiment and hedging pressure above the market, the silicon price has adjusted downward. Recently, driven by the polysilicon sentiment, the industrial silicon market has strengthened again. It is expected that the short - term silicon price will maintain high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and the price support is insufficient. Recently, the storage acquisition information has fermented again, and the polysilicon market has continued to rise. In the short term, supply - side disturbances may be repeated, the price fluctuation may be magnified again, and the price is likely to rise rather than fall. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.24% to 8,490 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: N - type dense material remained flat at 50 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material remained flat at 51.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 49 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.55% to 52,160 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: The price of N - type 183mm silicon wafers rose 2.40% to 1.28 yuan/piece, while other silicon wafers, battery cells, and components prices remained flat. The price of DMC decreased 0.47% to 10,650 yuan/ton, while the prices of 107 glue and silicone oil remained flat [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The CIF price of Malaysian bauxite (with an original ore aluminum content of 37% - 41% and a silicon content of 5% - 6%) has risen by 2.5 US dollars to 50.5 US dollars due to the increase in freight [1]. - The PC project of the second and third bid sections of the 1 million - kilowatt photovoltaic desert control project in Shache County, Xinjiang has been temporarily terminated due to a major change in the design plan [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial silicon: On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the power cost in the southwest production area has decreased during the wet season, with stable recovery in enterprise operations. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, with some silicon material plants planning to resume production; an organic silicon manufacturer has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with low inventory - building willingness in the downstream [1]. - Polysilicon: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, with some new production capacity expected to be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, the silicon wafer price cannot cover the full cost, battery cell prices are loosening due to inventory accumulation, and the terminal acceptance of high prices is low [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions drive up oil prices, but macro - level financial market shocks cause wide - range oil price fluctuations. PX prices return to normal after the hype of domestic PX device maintenance news. With low PX inventory, the price has strong bottom support, and its future performance depends on unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain due to the rigid demand of new PTA production devices. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester start - up is gradually increasing [2]. - Crude oil is weakly oscillating. PTA has sufficient spot supply, and its spot average price drops while the spot basis weakens. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance can't continuously boost prices. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester start - up load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The downstream polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm for PTA spot is low, and the polyester inventory is transferred downward, but the equity inventory is expected to change little. The overall sales of downstream polyester products are dull, and there is no clear signal for the start of the demand peak season. PTA will move in an oscillating manner, with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remains stable. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures fluctuate slightly. The supply - side quotes of bottle - chips are mostly stable, and downstream terminals follow up cautiously with a light trading atmosphere. The supply - side start - up of bottle - chips is stable, with sufficient market spot supply, and market demand is weakening [2]. - With the weakening of cost support, TA2601, PX2511, and PR2511 contracts all closed lower. OPEC and its production - limiting allies are expected to dominate the overnight crude oil market. As the downstream peak season has not started, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to run weakly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 3, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.97 per barrel, down 2.47% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.60 per barrel, down 2.23% [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $605.00 per ton, up 0.75%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $687.00 per ton, up 0.37%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $843.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, down 0.50%; the settlement price was 4,754 yuan per ton, down 0.46%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,660 yuan per ton, down 0.94%; the settlement price was 4,692 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,720 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $632.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,810 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,834 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX near - month contract were both 6,714 yuan per ton, with no change. The domestic PX spot price was 6,742 yuan per ton, with no change. The spot price (mid - price) of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $844.00 per ton, down 0.35%; the spot price (mid - price) of PX (FOB Korea) was $819.00 per ton, down 0.36% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,892 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 5,924 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR near - month contract were both 5,818 yuan per ton, with no change. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5,940 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and polyester chips remained unchanged on September 3, 2025. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,510 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,860 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [2]. Production and Sales Information - **开工率**: On September 3, 2025, the start - up rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 74.26%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.99%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.27%, with no change; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, with no change [1]. - **产销率**: The sales rate of polyester filament was 50.83%, up 12.80 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.19%, down 1.06 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 45.48%, down 15.56 percentage points [1]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22, 2025. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2].

免费声明:宏深规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的物货经营机构。已具备规律交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和差整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准和建议 仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。（风险提示；助市有风险 2 市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据米源:SMM W 银与不锈钢日评20250903:宏观反复,驱动不足 | 期货近月合约 收盘价 122220.00 123220.00 120180.00 -1,000.00 | | --- | | 期货连一合约 收盘价 122530.00 123450.00 120370.00 -920.00 | | 收盘价 122730.00 123580.00 -850.00 期货连二合约 120480.00 | | 期货连三合约 收盘价 122880.00 123730.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The Fed's expected rate cut in September, the shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the expected accumulation of domestic electrolytic copper inventories due to continuous imported copper arrivals may lead to strong fluctuations in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 2, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,660 yuan, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 61,677 lots, a decrease of 16,804 lots; the open interest was 180,065 lots, down 579 lots; the inventory was 19,501 tons, a decrease of 699 tons [2]. - The price of SMN 1 computer copper + 12 was 80,160 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 500 yuan, an increase of 380 yuan [2]. - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic) was 9,980.5 US dollars, up 96.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 158,775 tons [2]. - The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.641 US dollars, up 0.10 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory was 281,075 tons, an increase of 5,849 tons [2]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a month - on - month decline of 14.20%; the cumulative production was 136.434 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.34%. In September 2025, the total production schedule of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 27.07 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.28% [2]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will face a temporary decline in production due to the failure of two ball mills within a week [2]. - After the Shanghe Summit and approaching the end of the military parade, downstream enterprises of refined copper rods in North China will gradually resume normal production [2]. Investment Strategy - The restriction on the export of high - quality European scrap copper, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may lead to a decrease in the import and production of domestic scrap copper in September. The planned maintenance of domestic smelters in September may reduce the production and import of refined copper. New domestic production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the future, which may increase the production of electrolytic copper in September. The import window for electrolytic copper is opening, which may increase the import volume and inventory [3].

| | 甲醇日评20250903:等待做多机会 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 2025/9/2 2025/9/1 | | | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2372.00 | 2385.00 | -13.00 | -0.55% | | | MA05 元/吨 甲醇期货价格 | 2372.00 | 2390.00 | -18.00 | -0.75% | | | (收盘价) MA09 元/吨 | 2212.00 | 2226.00 | -14.00 | -0.63% | | | 太仓 元/吨 | 2235.00 | 2225.00 | 10.00 | 0.45% | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2295.00 | 2290.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | 期现价格 | 广东 元/吨 | 2242.50 | 2240.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 及基差 | 甲醇规货价格 陕西 元/吨 | 2080.00 | 2085.00 | -5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global long - term bonds are facing a "Black September". Political crises and fiscal deficits have pushed the 30 - year bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France to multi - year highs [1] - The import tariffs in the US have raised commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand make the September interest - rate cut expectation almost certain, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI on September 5th and 11th should be monitored [1] - The European Central Bank has paused interest - rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. With the eurozone and Germany and France's manufacturing PMI in August higher than expected and previous values, and the CPI annual rates also higher, the ECB may cut interest rates at most twice before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given economic data, it may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce its quarterly government bond purchases from ¥400 billion to ¥200 billion in April 2026. With economic data and the US Treasury Secretary's call for a rate hike, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] - The US August ISM manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] - Metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly place long orders when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Market Data Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided for different dates. For example, on September 2, 2025, the closing price was 804.32, and the trading volume was 199,052.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are also given. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 3599.50 [1] - **London Gold**: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 3490.00. Data on ETF holdings are also provided, such as the SPDR Gold ETF holding 990.56 on that day [1] Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, basis, and inventory data are presented. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 9800.00, and the trading volume was 444,734.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 41.73 [1] - **London Silver**: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 40.52. Data on ETF holdings are also given, like the US iShare Silver ETF holding 15366.48 on that day [1] Price Ratios - Ratios between gold and silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) are presented, such as the London gold - to - silver ratio being 86.13 on September 2, 2025 [1] Other Commodities - Prices of INE crude oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore are provided with their changes compared to previous days and weeks [1] Interest Rates - Interest rates of major countries are given, including the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield (4.2800 on September 2, 2025), the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate [1] Stock Indices - Closing prices and changes of major global stock indices (Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, Nikkei 225, South Korea Composite Index) are presented [1] Exchange Rates - Exchange rates such as the US dollar index, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are provided with their changes [1]

| 尿素早评20250903:关注逢低做多机会 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 单位 9月2日 9月1日 | | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1746.00 1710.00 | 1743.00 1700.00 | 3.00 10.00 | 0.17% 0.59% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1787.00 | 1784.00 | 3.00 | 0.17% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1677.00 | 1670.00 | 7.00 | 0.42% | | 期现价格 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1720.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1 ...