Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 2nd, the Shanghai nickel main - contract first rose then declined, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and basis premium widened. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, decreased nickel ore arrivals last week, and increased port inventories. Ferronickel plant losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production and decreased ferronickel inventory. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability shrank. The demand side had reduced ternary production, increased stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. Considering inventory changes and external factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Indonesian unrest, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on September 2nd, the stainless - steel main - contract fluctuated at a high level, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had better low - price trading, and basis premium decreased. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week. The supply side will see increased stainless - steel production in September. The demand side has weak terminal demand, while the cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Given the large impact of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals are loose, cost provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is also recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel decreased by 43,115 hands to 128,782 hands, and the open interest decreased by 1,201 hands to 90,762 hands. The LME 3 - month nickel price fell 1.29%. The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products (nickel beans, electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, etc.) mostly decreased. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract decreased, while the premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) remained stable [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME nickel inventory increased, the social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,402 tons, and the inventory in the Shanghai bonded area remained unchanged [2]. - **Industry News**: In August, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Greenmei stated that its nickel project in Indonesia was operating normally without being affected by local unrest. The Indonesian nickel ore association reported that the nickel price in this cycle decreased compared to the previous one, with the September 1st nickel ore reference price (HMA) set at $14,999.64 per kiloton, lower than the previous cycle. Some nickel products' prices showed different trends, with the MHP price rising significantly [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) had different changes. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel main - contract decreased by 34,264 hands to 130,629 hands, and the open interest decreased by 9,528 hands to 91,035 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various stainless - steel products (304 series, 316 series, etc.) had different changes, with some prices rising and some remaining stable. The basis between the 304/2B coil (Wuxi) average price and the active contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of stainless - steel decreased by 3,200 tons. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless steel increased by 2,400 tons, the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 3,300 tons, and the inventory of 400 - series decreased by 2,300 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, stainless - steel production is expected to increase, but terminal demand is weak. The cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices [2].

碳酸锂日评20250903:波动仍大,持仓注意保护 | 较昨日变化 交易日期(日) 近两周走势 | 2025-09-02 | 2025-09-01 | 2025-08-26 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 73280.00 | 75540.00 | 79260.00 | -2,260.00 | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 72660.00 | 75540.00 | 79140.00 | -2,880.00 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 72640.00 | 75420.00 | 79020.00 | -2,780.00 | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 72640.00 | 75420.00 | 78700.00 | -2,780.00 | | 收盘价 | 72620.00 | 75560.00 | 79020.00 | -2,940.00 | | 砖酸包期货 3 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 | 620441.00 | 540295.00 | 559599.00 | 80,146.00 | | (元/吨) 持仓量(手) 1 | 348109.00 | 3 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and positive domestic sentiment, lead prices will maintain range - bound consolidation [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, due to the low LME zinc inventory overseas, the LME 0 - 3 shifting to a back structure, and high capital concentration, LME zinc has been rising. In the short term, Shanghai zinc may show a strong - side consolidation under the influence of external markets and macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Lead**: SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, down 0.47%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 5.94% to 42,223 hands, and the open interest increased by 0.95% to 51,504 hands [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,325 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,865.5 dollars/ton, up 1.15%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.03% to 125,688 hands, and the open interest decreased by 7.34% to 107,662 hands [1]. Market News - **Lead**: A small - and - medium - sized lead - zinc mine project in Qinghai completed its 10 - day autumn maintenance, and production resumed in August. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.47 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 686 hands to 160,389 hands [1]. - **Zinc**: Since September 1st, many galvanized sheet plants in Hebei have been on holiday due to the approaching National Day, and the resumption time is undetermined. Some plants in other regions have chosen to conduct maintenance or stop production due to vehicle transportation restrictions. On September 1st, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 14.98 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,018 hands to 192,517 hands [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the operating rate has declined slightly. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Zinc**: Smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 93.75 dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. However, due to the off - season and environmental protection restrictions in the north, some downstream industries' operating rates have weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon price of industrial silicon may maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon fluctuates and is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply side is increasing steadily, while the demand side has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be under pressure again. For polysilicon, the fundamental situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the price support is insufficient [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.29% to 8,470 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, bringing some demand increments. For organic silicon, a large factory stopped for rectification due to an accident, and the supply is tightened stage - by - stage. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase according to demand [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material rose 4.17% to 50 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 5.10% to 51.5 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material rose 4.26% to 49 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon rose 5.43% to 48.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.78% to 51,875 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month - on - month [1] - **Demand Side**: According to the current latest polysilicon price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. The price of battery cells has loosened, and the terminal's acceptance of high prices is low [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The price of polysilicon fluctuates and is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 55,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro - emotions [1] Other Information - **Company News**: On September 1, Longi Green Energy held a performance briefing for the first half of 2025. The company's HIBC battery technology has matured for large - scale mass production and has been gradually introduced to the distributed photovoltaic market [1] - **Market News**: Recently, domestic component enterprises have started negotiations on the Q4 procurement plan. Some silicone factories have finalized orders, and the trading volume has increased significantly. The average price of photovoltaic glue is expected to rise slightly [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long. Methanol's valuation is neutral. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the price of methanol in East China is relatively undervalued compared to downstream, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long in the future [5][41]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [5][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From August 18th to August 29th, methanol prices oscillated downward. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol returned to a weak fundamental situation. The increase in supply from inland coal - to - methanol enterprises and imported methanol led to price downward pressure [5][10][41]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - With the increasing import pressure, the spot is relatively weak. The East China spot basis has weakened, and the near - month futures contracts have also weakened. On August 18th, the East China basis was - 106 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, it was - 151 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was 18 yuan/ton on August 18th and - 11 yuan/ton on August 29th [11]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Cost and Production**: Coal - to - methanol profits are still high. Although the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate decreased slightly, it is still at a high level year - on - year. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart in September, so the upstream production is expected to gradually increase. As of August 28th, the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.07 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly gas - to - methanol production rate was 50.79%, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 4.52 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation rate continues to accelerate. As of the week of August 28th, the total port inventory was 106.6 tons, an increase of 13.18 tons month - on - month and 16.52 tons year - on - year. The inventory in the Northwest region also increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - **MTO Demand**: The profit of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has improved, and the MTO production rate remains relatively high. As of August 28th, the weekly production rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 82.24%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 0.25 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly production rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally was 78.56%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 2.76 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, so the demand for restocking is low, and the upward driving force for methanol is insufficient [24]. - **Traditional Demand**: The traditional downstream of methanol includes acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether. Although the production of some traditional downstream industries decreased last week, the downstream profit has improved marginally. The peak season from September to October may boost the demand for methanol [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both supply and demand increases, but the inventory pressure remains high. In the short - term, affected by macro - sentiment fluctuations and the driving force of polysilicon, the silicon price is expected to remain at a high level, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon present a situation of strong supply and weak demand. However, due to anti - involution and supply reform, the quotes of holders are firm, and the bullish sentiment is still strong. In the short - term, the price is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, most industrial silicon prices showed a downward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main - contract closing price decreased by 355 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.06%. The prices of different types of industrial silicon in various regions also decreased to varying degrees [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of N - type dense materials, N - type re - feeding materials, etc. remained unchanged during this period, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed small fluctuations [10]. - **Organic Silicon**: The average price of DMC remained unchanged, while the average price of 107 glue decreased by 0.86% and the average price of silicone oil decreased by 0.38% [10]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The average price of ADC12 increased by 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%, while the average price of A356 remained unchanged [10]. 3.2 North - South Increase, Continuous Increment in Supply - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: In the week of August 28, the number of silicon - enterprise furnaces in operation increased by 12 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and other regions also increased to varying degrees. For example, Xinjiang's production increased by 1,980 tons, and its operating rate increased from 58.48% to 62.57% [39]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, with the monthly output reaching about 110,000 tons. In August, it is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons. Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons [3][68]. 3.3 Improved Transactions, Reduction in Polysilicon Inventory - As of August 28, the total polysilicon inventory decreased to 213,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons. Multiple upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments before the end of August, resulting in a significant increase in the trading volume of the polysilicon market and a relatively obvious decline in inventory [3][68]. 3.4 Peak - Season Demand Not Yet Apparent, Weak Organic Silicon Prices - **Supply**: In August, the DMC operating rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 percentage points, and the output was 223,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,300 tons. Last week, due to anti - involution in the industry, some local devices reduced their loads for maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in weekly production [97]. - **Demand and Price**: The organic silicon prices weakened. As of August 29, the average DMC price remained unchanged, the average 107 glue price decreased by 0.86%, and the average silicone oil price decreased by 0.38%. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and new orders were weak [103]. 3.5 Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate with Minor Fluctuations - **Operating Rate**: In the week of August 28, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [111]. - **Price**: The aluminum alloy prices rebounded. As of August 29, the average ADC12 price increased by 1.47%, and the average A356 price remained unchanged [114]. 3.6 High Inventory Pressure - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of August 28, the industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 541,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 173,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. As of August 29, the exchange - registered warehouse receipts were 50,453 lots, equivalent to 252,300 tons of spot [124]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The industrial silicon supply - demand balance showed different situations in different months. From January 2024 to July 2025, the supply - demand balance fluctuated, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton. The market is characterized by weak supply and demand, and high inventory levels. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased 0.45% to 16,725 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price rose 0.60% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased 0.20% to 1,991 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Lead Concentrate**: The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The forward supply of imported ore is expected to be tight, and the TC quotation is falling. Domestic ore TC adjustment is relatively stable, and smelters prefer domestic ore. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 90 US dollars/dry ton [3][27]. - **Scrap Batteries**: Due to poor terminal consumption, the recycling volume of scrap batteries is limited. As the production of secondary lead decreases, the demand for scrap batteries weakens, and the price of scrap batteries has slightly declined. As of August 29, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous period [3][41]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased and decreased simultaneously, with overall relatively stable operation. The production rate of primary lead has increased to 68.33%. Some smelters have maintenance plans in September, which may lead to a reduction in production [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: Due to raw material restrictions and losses, the production rate of secondary lead has continued to decline. The production rate decreased 4.1 percentage points to 35.3%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing a decline [51]. 3.4 Demand Side - The terminal demand for lead - acid batteries has not improved. Dealers' inventories have accumulated, and lead - acid battery companies mainly produce based on sales, resulting in limited purchases of lead ingots. The production rate of lead - acid batteries decreased 1.05 percentage points to 70.59% [3][58]. 3.5 Transactions and Inventory - The price of secondary lead is inverted compared to electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead with higher cost - effectiveness. Recently, due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and military parade activities, vehicle transportation has been restricted, leading to an accumulation of lead ingot inventory at the production end. - As of August 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,100 tons, showing a slight decline. As of August 28, the factory inventory of primary lead's main delivery brands was 15,700 tons, showing an increase. As of August 29, SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,700 tons, showing an increase, and LME inventory was 259,550 tons, showing a decrease [76][79]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of August 22, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 29, the import profit was - 381.05 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - **Blister Copper**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - **Copper Products Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - **Copper Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - **Copper Strips**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - **Copper Foils**: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For electrolytic nickel, wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton due to loose supply - demand and high production despite supply concerns from the riots and fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations [3][90]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton because of increased production, average demand, but strong cost support [4][116]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 1.75% weekly, with trading volume reaching 671,400 lots (+263,900) and open interest at 89,600 lots (-21,800). LME nickel rose 2.13% weekly, with trading volume at 28,300 lots (-900) [10]. - The basis showed a premium of 850 yuan/ton [12]. 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, while the shipping price from the Philippines to China increased [18]. - In June, Philippine nickel ore exports rose. In July, China's nickel ore imports reached 5.01 million tons, up 15.2% month - on - month and 43.6% year - on - year [22]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals decreased by 308,200 tons, and port inventories increased by 540,000 wet tons [24]. Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose 12.5 yuan/nickel point, and 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron rose 20 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and that to scrap stainless steel narrowed [30]. - In July, China's nickel pig iron imports were 836,000 tons, down 19.7% month - on - month but up 1.8% year - on - year. August imports are expected to be flat [34]. - Nickel iron mills' losses shrank, and the operating rate increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production and operating rate rose, and in September, Indonesia's did the same. Nickel iron inventory decreased [36][41][43]. Electrolytic Nickel - In September, the operating rate and production of refined nickel increased, and export profitability expanded [47][52]. - In July, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel increased [56]. 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [61]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased by 6.7% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year, while imports decreased by 33.3% month - on - month and 39.0% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [65]. New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was minimal [71]. - In September, the production plan of ternary precursors increased by 12.9% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year, while that of ternary materials decreased by 1.5% month - on - month but increased by 26.2% year - on - year [74]. - In August, the production plan of nickel sulfate decreased by 2.5% month - on - month and 10.9% year - on - year [76]. - In July, new energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month but up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month but up 27.4% year - on - year [81]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [82]. - Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons [86]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally sourced nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte [89]. 1.5 Market Outlook for Nickel - Strategy: Wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices after the Indonesian riots subside. - Operating range: 116,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. - Logic: Supply - side factors include stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals, and increased port inventories; narrowing losses for domestic iron mills, decreased domestic production plans, increased Indonesian production plans, and reduced nickel iron inventories; increased refined nickel production and expanded export profitability. Demand - side factors are decreased ternary material production plans, increased precursor production plans, increased stainless - steel mill production plans, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory - side factors are decreased pure nickel social inventory and stable bonded - area inventory. Overall, despite Fed rate - cut uncertainties and supply concerns from the riots, high pure nickel production leads to loose supply - demand and expected wide - range price fluctuations [90]. 2.2 Cost and Profit for Stainless Steel - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices increased, providing strong cost support [97]. - The losses of 200 - series stainless steel widened, those of 300 - series narrowed, and those of 400 - series widened [101]. 2.3 Fundamental Aspects of Stainless Steel - In September, stainless steel production plans increased, especially for 300 - series stainless steel [105]. - In July, stainless steel exports increased, and imports decreased. Exports and imports are expected to decline in August [108]. 2.4 Inventory Side for Stainless Steel - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. 200 - series inventory increased, while 300 - series and 400 - series decreased [114]. 2.5 Market Outlook for Stainless Steel - Strategy: Wait and see. - Operating range: 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton. - Logic: With increased production, average demand, strong cost support, and overall and 300 - series inventory reduction, the stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate within a range [116].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices are expected to remain range - bound [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory is accumulating. However, the dovish remarks from Powell and increased expectations of a Fed rate cut in September provide some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to trade in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat, the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.15%. The Shanghai lead basis increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Other spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract decreased by 9.12% to 39,854 lots, while the open interest increased by 3.73% to 51,017 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 12.39% to 0.78 [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 259,550 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.91% to 56,801 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase as some refineries resume production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste lead - acid battery prices and limited supplies, some refineries cut or stopped production. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **News**: On September 1, 2025, the new national standard for electric bicycles was officially implemented. On August 29, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.07 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 800 lots to 161,075 lots [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose by 0.41%, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract rose by 0.16%. The Shanghai zinc basis increased by 55 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton. Zinc ingot premiums in different regions decreased [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract increased by 0.05% to 139,706 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.35% to 116,185 lots. The trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 0.40% to 1.20 [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 55,875 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 37,957 tons. As of September 1, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven locations increased to 146,300 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply of zinc is increasing, but demand is affected by the off - season and environmental restrictions in the north, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is limited [1]. - **News**: A zinc smelter in Guangxi will stop production for maintenance from September 7 due to a temporary interruption in zinc concentrate supply, with an expected impact of 10,000 tons [1].