Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250819: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Widely [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange first rose and then fell. The nickel market fundamentals are loose, and with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 18, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, the price still needs time to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the macro situation. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Information Nickel Market Futures Market - The closing prices of nickel futures contracts such as the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased compared with previous days. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 78,139 hands (-9,510), and the open interest was 62,507 hands (-3,820). The LME 3 - month nickel price had a slight change, with the official spot price unchanged at $15,075, and the electronic - disk closing price at $15,151 (-44) [2]. Spot Market - The prices of nickel ore remained flat. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decrease in August and Indonesian production increasing, leading to nickel - iron inventory accumulation. The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased in August, and export profitability decreased. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices were stable, and port inventories increased. The production of nickel - iron and electrolytic nickel had different trends in different regions. Demand side: The production of ternary materials increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - The stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 121,765 hands (-22,195), and the open interest was 134,400 hands (+148) [2]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: The production of stainless steel was scheduled to increase in August. Demand side: The terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2]. Macro - Information - The State Council Premier Li Zhang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing the need to continuously stimulate consumption potential, foster new growth points such as service consumption and new - type consumption, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization and recovery of the real - estate market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The rebound space of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. If export demand cannot make up for the shortfall, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 17 yuan/ton (0.98%), in Shanxi remained unchanged, UR05 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.39%), and UR09 increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granules): In Henan, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.16%); in Hebei, by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%); in Northeast, remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.75%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - Basis (Shandong spot - UR) increased by 23 yuan/ton [1] - Spread (01 - 05) increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Market Situation - The trading volume of the main contract 2601 was 2601 lots and the open interest was 183,795 lots. The opening price was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1767 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1754 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - The domestic urea supply is strong, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level, and the upstream enterprise inventory is about 860,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On August 18, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The market showed rigid - demand procurement, and the basis discount widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, with the profit margin expanding, lithium carbonate production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, it is necessary to guard against the "reversal" sentiment decline. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The operation suggestion is short - term range operation and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: On August 18, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 89,300.00 yuan/ton, 89,280.00 yuan/ton, 89,240.00 yuan/ton, and 89,240.00 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to previous days [3] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures on August 18 was 1,036,328.00 lots, an increase of 167,517.00 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 421,106.00 lots, an increase of 19,967.00 lots [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory on August 18 was 23,555.00 tons, an increase of 70.00 tons from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was 20.00 yuan/ton, the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 40.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was - 4,640.00 yuan/ton on August 18 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978.00 US dollars/ton on August 18, an increase of 38.00 US dollars/ton from the previous day. The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,385.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 65.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 84,600.00 yuan/ton on August 18, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 82,300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,900.00 yuan/ton [3] - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - based materials, and negative electrode materials also showed different degrees of changes [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Information - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. The SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons in total, with the inventory of smelters at 49,693 tons, showing a decreasing trend [3] - **Demand**: In the downstream, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. The production of cobalt - based lithium decreased in August, while the production of manganese - based lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month. The 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3] 3.4 Company News - Nengdongli stated on the interactive platform on August 18 that since the self - operation of its Lijiagou lithium mine, the operation has been good, and it is currently in the production - capacity climbing stage. De'ayi Industry successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium salts in July 2025 [3] - Australian Covalent Lithium Company started producing lithium hydroxide at its 50,000 - ton/year Kwinana refinery on August 15, confirming that the commissioning has entered the trial - production stage, but its expansion plan has been shelved [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is still weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, but downstream profits in the inland areas are poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, as the proportion of old facilities in methanol production is small. The supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories, and the port inventory accumulation is accelerating, which will suppress the spot price in East China. After the weakening of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On August 18, 2025, MA01 closed at 2396 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.66%) from August 15; MA05 closed at 2378 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.38%); MA09 closed at 2293 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.99%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average prices in various regions on August 18, 2025, showed declines compared to August 15, except for Hubei where it remained unchanged. For example, the price in Taicang was 2300 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.29%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.28%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 14 yuan/ton from August 15 [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The prices of Buzhoukes Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 520 yuan/ton and 587.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 575 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.86%) from August 15 [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.19 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 413.70 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, down 16.30 yuan/ton (-3.79%) from August 15. The profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 412 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profits**: The profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of Northwest MTO was 99.40 yuan/ton on August 18, 2025, up 55.20 yuan/ton (124.89%) from August 15; the profit of MTBE was 74.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-26.16%) [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated downward, opening at 2415 yuan/ton, closing at 2396 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 438,253 lots, and the open interest was 665,628, with shrinking volume and increasing open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: After some methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country restarted or increased their loads, the overall methanol operating rate in that country reached 66.36%, and the daily total methanol production increased. As of August 18, the methanol loading volume in that country reached 715,000 tons, a 385,000 - ton increase (116.67%) compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated weakly, and the night - session closed at 2375. Given the weak fundamental outlook, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly after the weakening of coking coal sentiment [1]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The rebound of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market. If export demand fails to supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. Group 2: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices showed an upward trend on August 18 compared to August 15, with UR01 in Shandong rising by 0.98% (17 yuan/ton), UR01 in Shanxi rising by 1.76% (30 yuan/ton), UR05 rising by 0.39% (7 yuan/ton), and UR09 rising by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton) [1]. - Domestic spot prices of small - particle urea also increased in some regions, such as in Henan by 1.16% (20 yuan/ton), in Hebei by 0.58% (10 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu by 1.75% (30 yuan/ton) [1]. - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 23 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Upstream coal prices and downstream product prices (compound fertilizer, melamine) remained unchanged [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Situation - The daily production of urea is close to 190,000 tons, at a high level, and the supply pressure is still large [1]. - The inventory accumulation of enterprises is not significant mainly due to the increase in port collection, but the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons [1]. - Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face downward pressure [1].

Group 1: Report Data - The data shows various percentage changes including -17.70%, -9.29%, 21.00%, 18.44%, etc [1] - There are numerical values such as -1512.98, 6300.00, 2325.00, etc [1] - Different quantities are presented in tons and prices in dollars per unit [1] - Dates like 2025/8/18, 2025/8/19, 2025/8/15 are included [1] Group 2: Industry - Related Items - The report involves industries such as polyester, ethylene, coal, and oil [1] - It mentions different regions like Inner Mongolia, East China [1] - Items include products like polyester fiber, ethylene glycol, and various chemical compounds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - PX market is strong, and its cost supports PTA. PTA market shows a slight increase with a minor fluctuation in the spot basis. PTA processing fees are in the low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season make it difficult for unplanned device maintenance to boost prices. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains stable. The supply side of bottle - chips has low - level operations, with sufficient market spot supply. Downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market sentiment is cautious [2]. - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On August 18, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.42 per barrel, up 0.99% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $570.75 per ton, down 0.31%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4746 yuan per ton, up 0.64%; the settlement price was 4726 yuan per ton, up 0.38%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4696 yuan per ton, up 0.43%; the settlement price was 4680 yuan per ton, up 0.17%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4659 yuan per ton, up 0.11% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6760 yuan per ton, up 1.08%; the settlement price was 6702 yuan per ton, up 0.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6804 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 6756 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6581 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5928 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the settlement price was 5896 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5856 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5844 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; in the South China market, it was 5940 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Product Prices** - On August 18, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6475 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5920 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On August 18, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA plants was 77.67%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.30%, up 0.42%; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.80%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On August 18, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 45.74%, up 9.42%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 40.41%, down 9.21%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 75.00%, up 21.43% [1]. Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months. Two 800,000 - ton PX devices in South China will be restarted soon [2]. Important News - The US - Russia meeting ended on Friday. Although no substantial agreement was reached, the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is expected to accelerate, and the expectation of US sanctions against Russia has relaxed, reducing geopolitical risks. The PX supply is recovering, and the current PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is unstable. The supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline of overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,971 dollars/ton, down 0.50% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 62,225 tons, up 0.71% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 30,595 lots, down 6.15%; the position was 49,496 lots, down 3.34% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Pre - maintenance smelters are gradually resuming production. For secondary lead, scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Terminal demand has not improved significantly [1]. - **Industry News**: An East - China large secondary lead smelter plans to stop production for 1 month, expected to affect August secondary refined lead output. Dongying Xinsanyuan's 200,000 - ton lead - acid battery environmental utilization project has determined the winning bidder [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,777 dollars/ton, down 0.70% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 32,538 tons, up 62.53% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 80,217 lots, down 3.61%; the position was 69,630 lots, down 8.80% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In August, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising. Downstream demand is mainly consuming existing inventories, but some terminal demand has increased due to concerns about zinc price increases [1]. - **Industry News**: Indian Zinc (HZL) plans to build a zinc tailings re - processing plant in Rajasthan and expand its metal (zinc + lead) production capacity [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon price has adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the disk, but the bullish sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain in a high - level consolidation. The price of polysilicon has continued to rise since the end of June due to supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, and although the sentiment has weakened recently, it is still volatile. It is expected that the price will remain in a high - level consolidation with large fluctuations in the disk, and operations should be cautious [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygen - passing 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.27% to 8,605 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - side**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise start - up rates have steadily increased. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand - side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon manufacturer has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the supply has tightened temporarily. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, the market supply pressure has increased, and prices may be under pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 0.87% to 52,280 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons [1] - **Demand - side**: The photovoltaic market as a whole is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have risen, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, the terminal market is still weak, and the component prices have adjusted downward [1] Other Information - **New Energy Tenders**: On August 14, the list of candidates for the 2025 Jizhong New Materials 7.15MWp N - type double - sided double - glass photovoltaic module project of Hebei Jizhong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was announced. The first candidate was JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 5,112,586.05 yuan and a converted unit price of about 0.715 yuan/W. The second candidate was Yingli Energy Development Co., Ltd. with a bid price of 5,076,500 yuan and a converted unit price of about 0.71 yuan/W [1] - **New Energy Company Establishment**: State Power Investment Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Group have established new energy companies in Tianjin and Tibet respectively, with a total registered capital of 400 million yuan. Tianjin Electric Power Investment Qingneng New Energy (Limited Partnership) was established on July 3, 2025, with a registered capital of 300 million yuan and is indirectly 100% controlled by State Power Investment Corporation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of finished steel products rebounded briefly and then declined. The spot market was relatively strong, and the basis widened significantly. The consumption of listed steel products decreased month - on - month, while the total output increased slightly. - In terms of varieties, both the production and sales of rebar decreased, with consumption declining faster than production, and the total inventory continued to rise. Both the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and the total inventory increased slightly month - on - month. In the short term, the structure of stronger hot - rolled coils and weaker rebar is maintained. For rebar, the valuation is in the repair stage, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the support at 3200. Operate with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - **Price and Output**: Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated slightly. As of August 14, the total output of five major steel products increased by 2420 tons. The apparent demand was 831,020 tons, a decrease of 14,720 tons month - on - month. As of August 15, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of rebar in East China was 3134.5 yuan, with a profit of about 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 225.5 yuan. For electric furnaces in East China, the flat - rate electricity cost was about 3368 yuan, and the valley - rate electricity cost was about 3240 yuan [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of August 15, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 558,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6100 tons. The supply of scrap steel increased, but the inventory of 255 steel enterprises decreased by 2.6% [7]. - **Macro Data**: In 2025 from January to July, the cumulative output of pig iron was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI was 49.3%. The newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises decreased year - on - year. From January to July 2025, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, infrastructure investment decreased by 5.07%, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][23]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and the completed floor area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year [30]. **Main Varieties' Basis and Spread** - **Spread Strategy**: This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to be strong [41]. **Supply Analysis** - **Long - Process Supply**: As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%, and the daily output of hot metal was 2407,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14% [44]. - **Short - Process Supply**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 36.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. As of August 15, the iron - scrap price difference was - 37.7 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.3 yuan [47]. **Demand - Related Indicators** - **Rebar Production**: This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a decrease of 730 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 190,250 tons, a decrease of 290 tons, and the short - process output was 30,200 tons, a decrease of 440 tons [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: The trading volume of building materials in different regions showed different trends [63]. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating rate of national cement mills was 41.91%, a month - on - month increase of 6.2 percentage points, turning from a decline to an increase [71]. - **Real Estate Sales**: The 30 - city real - estate sales data showed certain trends [73]. **Inventory Situation** - **Rebar Inventory**: The original sample rebar factory inventory was 172,260 tons, an increase of 4060 tons, the social inventory was 414,930 tons, an increase of 26,450 tons, and the total inventory was 587,190 tons, an increase of 30,510 tons [76]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 315,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons. The apparent demand was 314,750 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8540 tons. The factory inventory increased by 2100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 1210 tons, and the total inventory increased by 840 tons [79]. **Export Situation** - As of August 15, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, an increase of 5 US dollars, and the export profit was - 4.5 US dollars, an increase of 6.4 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.0699 million tons, an increase of 425,500 tons [90].