Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report concludes that from a fundamental perspective, there has been an increase in both shipments and arrivals this period. Shipments from Australia have steadily recovered, while there are significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non-mainstream mines, leading to increased overall supply pressure. On the demand side, the current pig iron output is 240.7 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and it is expected to continue a slight upward trend in the next period. Overall demand remains at a high level but fluctuates. The production restrictions in the north before September 3 will have a phased impact on demand, so attention should be paid to relevant production restriction policies. In summary, after the basis of iron ore narrows, there is clearly insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, the spot and futures prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the basis may strengthen. It is expected that the 01 contract will fluctuate between 90 - 100 US dollars [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot products showed slight fluctuations. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 6, while PB fines decreased by 6. As of August 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.8, up $0.3 week-on-week, equivalent to approximately 851 yuan after currency conversion. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines, with a current price of around 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) is around 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China has increased week-on-week but is lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year. Considering the unloading end, the arrivals are expected to decline; from the demand side, the pig iron output has slightly increased, and the average daily port clearance volume has increased. It is predicted that the overall unloading and warehousing volume at 47 ports in the next period may be lower than the outbound volume, and the port inventory may slightly decrease [6]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period are 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.595 million tons week-on-week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil are 26.697 million tons, an increase of 2.419 million tons week-on-week. Australia's shipments are 16.042 million tons, an increase of 0.238 million tons week-on-week, of which the volume shipped to China is 13.475 million tons, a decrease of 0.181 million tons week-on-week. Brazil's shipments are 10.655 million tons, an increase of 2.181 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Arrivals**: From August 11 - 17, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.315 million tons week-on-week; the total arrivals at 45 ports are 24.766 million tons, an increase of 0.947 million tons week-on-week; and the total arrivals at six northern ports are 12.525 million tons, an increase of 0.495 million tons week-on-week [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills has increased this period, reaching 240.66 million tons per day, an increase of 0.34 million tons per day compared to last week, 0.54 million tons per day higher than the beginning of the year, and 11.89 million tons per day higher than the same period last year. One new blast furnace is under maintenance this period, located in the Northeast region, due to weakening downstream demand for finished products. It is expected to last until the end of the month. Blast furnaces that resumed production in the previous cycle have gradually reached full production this week, so the pig iron output has slightly increased. According to the blast furnace start - up and shutdown plans, the pig iron output may continue to increase slightly in the next period. As of August 15, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China is 3134.5 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of around 138 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils is around 225.5 yuan. In the electric furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao) is around 3368 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost is around 3240 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China is around - 138 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit is around - 10 yuan [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: Details of the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted factory warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties are provided. The optimal deliverable product is Newman fines at 792 yuan, and the second - best is PB fines at 803 yuan [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 15, the spread between the 09 and 01 iron ore contracts closed at 16 (- 0.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profits**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **High - Low Grade Price Spreads**: No specific data analysis is provided in the report. - **Premium Index**: As of August 14, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore is 0.18 (- 0.005), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore is 16 (-) [27]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: Data on the inventory of various iron ore brands (such as Mac fines, PB fines, etc.) at 15 ports and their historical trends are presented, along with information on brand premiums and discounts [30]. - **Steel Mill Sinter Fines Inventory**: As of August 15, the imported sinter fines inventory of 64 sample steel mills is 1318, an increase of 43.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37%. The domestic sinter fines inventory is 8, a decrease of 0.8 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.84%. The average days of imported ore inventory survey is 2, an increase of 1.0 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.00% [33]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption**: As of August 15, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9136.4, an increase of 123.06 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37%. The daily consumption of imported ore is 298.5, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore is 30.6, an increase of 0.38 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.26% [36]. - **Port Inventory and Berthing Vessels**: Data on the total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports are presented, along with their historical trends [39]. - **Port Inventory by Ore Type**: As of August 15, the inventory of imported lump ore at ports is 1688, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.12%. The inventory of imported pellet ore is 325, a decrease of 12 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. The inventory of imported iron concentrate is 1095, a decrease of 19 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The inventory of imported coarse ore is 10712, an increase of 140 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [42]. - **Port Clearance**: Historical data on port clearance volumes from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45]. - **Iron Ore In - Transit Volume**: Data on the in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China are presented, along with their historical trends [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantities**: Data on the import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries are presented, along with their historical trends [51]. - **Australian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world and to China from Australia, as well as the proportion of shipments to China, are provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Australia to China is 1348, a decrease of 18 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The total shipment volume from Australia is 1604, an increase of 23.9 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The proportion of shipments to China is 84.00%, a decrease of 2.4% from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.80% [60]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments**: The monthly average shipment volume to the world from Brazil is provided. As of August 15, the shipment volume from Brazil to the world is 1066, an increase of 218 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 25.74% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: The shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) to China are presented. Compared to August 8, the shipment volume of Rio Tinto decreased by 90 (- 15.41%), BHP Billiton decreased by 18 (- 4.39%), Vale increased by 220 (38.85%), and FMG decreased by 22 (- 8.25%). The total shipment volume increased by 90 (4.88%) [67]. - **Iron Ore Arrivals**: As of August 15, the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2477, an increase of 95 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.0%. The arrival volume at northern ports is 1253, an increase of 50 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.1% [74]. - **Freight Rates**: Historical data on the freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarão to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 - 2025 are provided [76]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: The production and inventory data of iron concentrate from domestic mines are presented. As of August 15, the production of iron concentrate from mines is 78.9, an increase of 3.3 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 4.37%. The inventory of iron concentrate from mines is 35, a decrease of 2 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [78]. - **Steel Mill Fines Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization**: The average daily consumption of imported and domestic sinter fines by 247 steel mills, as well as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, are presented. As of August 15, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.2, an increase of 0.13 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14%. The average daily consumption of imported sinter fines is 61.2, a decrease of 0.39 from August 8, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.63%. The average daily consumption of domestic sinter fines is 8.7, an increase of 0.46 from August 8, with a week - on - week increase of 5.60% [80]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The daily average pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year comparisons [86]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China are presented, along with historical trends [89]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The pig iron production data of regions outside China are presented, along with historical trends and year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in August may decrease month-on-month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month-on-month. The US port inflation rebound reduces the Fed's expected number of interest rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 50,116 lots, down 1,618 lots; the open interest was 152,557 lots, up 216 lots; the inventory was 24,560 tons, up 126 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180 yuan, down 255 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) on August 15, 2025, was 9,760 US dollars, down 17 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 155,800 tons [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 15, 2025, was 4.489 US dollars, down 0.01 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 267,195 tons, up 400 tons [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia, the second - largest copper producer in Africa, had a copper production of about 439,644 tons in the first six months of 2025. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production of about 224,000 tons, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. Four producers had problems in the second quarter. To reach the 1 - million - ton target set by the government this year, the production in the second half of the year needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry News - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. plans to invest 197.66065 million yuan to relocate and upgrade its existing project to build an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project in Jiangxi Qianshan County Industrial Park [3] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build an annual 500,000 - ton steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 - ton copper - aluminum recycling project in De'an County, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was accepted for public notice, with a public notice period from August 14 to August 27, 2025 [5] Copper Product Industry Analysis - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, affecting the capacity utilization rate of copper products. The capacity utilization rate of different copper products may change in August. For example, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, copper foils, and brass rods may increase, while that of recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound of consumer inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. The EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. However, due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to build long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 775.86 yuan/gram, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 23,234, and the open interest decreased by 730 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 9,173 yuan/ten - grams, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the spot Shanghai silver T + D was 452,542, and the open interest was 3,447,314, down 63,142 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week. The trading volume was 115,486, and the open interest was 328,360, down 3,192 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on August 15, 2025, was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 86,225, and the open interest was 70,294, down 34,959 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Economy**: US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations rose. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate at the consumer end. The inflation expectations in August are higher than expected, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August. It continued to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025 and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK's CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan's (Tokyo) core CPI annual rate in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in the second quarter was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still has the possibility of raising rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time being October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait for price drops to build long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - grams [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market is worried about the contraction of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and uncertainties in domestic salt lake supply. The "anti - involution" sentiment continues, and the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, high prices will stimulate the release of overseas resources, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short - term operation, be cautious when chasing long positions, and appropriately buy options for protection; Operating range: 70,000 - 100,000 [4][90] - Resource side: There are still concerns about the supply of lithium mica in Jiangxi, the output of spodumene is basically flat, and the import volume of lithium ore has decreased [4][90] - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, the import volume of lithium salts decreased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile increased significantly, and the recycling end was strengthened [4][90] - Demand side: The growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories have increased, with inventory accumulation of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries has increased slightly, and the energy - storage winning bid scale has decreased [4][90] - Cost side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have risen significantly [4][90] - Inventory: Overall inventory reduction, inventory reduction in smelters, and inventory accumulation in downstream and other sectors [4][90] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 15.87%. The trading volume reached 4.63 million lots (+1.86 million), and the open interest reached 401,100 lots (+80,400). The basis was at a discount of 4,200 yuan/ton [6][7] 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's spodumene output was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica output was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [12] - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [16] - In April, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [21] 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [26] 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% - In July, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [32][34] 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the output was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3% - In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [42] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 79,053 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the output was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [45] 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the output of ternary materials was 16,283 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% - In June, the import and export volume increased [50] 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the output was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4% - In June, the export volume decreased [53] 3.4.4 Manganese - Based and Cobalt - Based Materials - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26% - In August, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the output was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [54] 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In August, the output of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% - In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 3.5 Terminal Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the output of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8% - In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [64] 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% - In July, the sales of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [67] 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In August, the output of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% - In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [72] 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1% - In July, China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [75] 3.6 Cost Analysis - Lithium ore prices have risen significantly. The price of spodumene concentrate has increased by $163/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 300 yuan/ton [79] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 162 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 1,306 tons, downstream inventory increased by 124 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,020 tons - Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 483 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 737 tons [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper production in Zambia's second quarter poses risks to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. The domestic copper smelting plant's maintenance capacity may decrease month - on - month in August, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month - on - month. The inflation rebound at the US port end reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see [1][2][4] Summary by Related Contents Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060, with an increase of 110 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 50,116 lots, a decrease of 1,618 lots. The open interest was 152,557 lots, an increase of 216 lots. The inventory was 24,560 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180, a decrease of 255 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis difference was 120, a decrease of 365 [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,760, a decrease of 17 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 155,800 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.489, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day. The total inventory weight was 267,195, an increase of 400 [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia is the second - largest copper producer in Africa. In 2025, the first - quarter copper production was about 224,000 tons. The copper production in the first six months was 439,644 tons. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 4% [2] - Four producers, Sino Metals Leach, First Quantum Minerals, Mimbula, and Sino Xinyuan, affected the second - quarter production. Sino Metals Leach was forced to close due to tailings dam failure and acid leakage [2] - Zambia produced about 820,000 tons of copper last year. The first - half production increased by about 18% year - on - year. To reach the 1 - million - ton target this year, the second - half production needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry Projects - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly Jiangxi Jinhui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.) plans to invest 1.9766065 billion yuan in the industrial park of Qianshan County, Jiangxi to relocate and upgrade the existing project, building an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was publicly announced for acceptance, with a publicity period from August 14 to August 27 [5] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build a project in De'an County for annual processing of 500,000 tons of steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 tons of copper - aluminum recycling, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] Copper Product Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China increased compared to last week, leading to an increase (decrease) in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods). The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared to last week [4] - The capacity utilization rate of copper product industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil in some fields may increase, while that of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - US consumer - end inflation rebound reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, and the EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. Due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions [1] Summary by Related Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 775.86 yuan/g, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 23,234. The position volume decreased by 730. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 2.34, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 2.71 [1] Shanghai Silver - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 9,173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 452,542. The position volume decreased by 63,142. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 23, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 12 [1] COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week, and the trading volume was 115,486. The position volume decreased by 3,192. The inventory was 38,668,707.68 troy ounces [1] COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the trading volume was 86,225. The position volume decreased by 34,959. The inventory was 507,014,610.35 troy ounces [1] London Gold Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,383.75 dollars/ounce, down 8.35 dollars from the previous day [1] London Silver Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 37.73 dollars/ounce, down 0.59 dollars from the previous day [1] Summary by Macroeconomic Information US Economy - In July, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in Q3. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in PPI and core CPI in July. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in August were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected and previous values, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] European Economy - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] UK Economy - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and previous values. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] Japanese Economy - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core CPI annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), flat compared to expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in Q2 was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise rates, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/g and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/g; for London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strengthening, with profit margins expanding, production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, due to the cooling measures taken by the Dalian Commodity Exchange on coking coal futures, there is a need to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended operation strategy is short - term range trading, and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: On August 15, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 868,811 lots (-191,316), and the open interest was 401,139 lots (+11,962). The spreads between different contracts (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - two to consecutive - three) and the basis also showed certain changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The SMM average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and the prices of various lithium minerals (spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) changed. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica also rose. The price differences between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 23,485 tons (+1,546). The social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials rose. In August, the production of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and the production of lithium manganate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3]. - **Demand Side**: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the month - on - month sales decreased. The shipment volume of 3C products was average. In August, the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased [3]. 3.3 Company News - **Sigma Lithium**: From April to June 2025, the company's lithium carbonate ore production totaled 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons. The total sustaining cash cost was $594 per ton, lower than the target of $660 per ton and 24% lower than the same period last year. However, the sales volume in the second quarter decreased by 23% to 40,350 tons. The company's revenue decreased to $21.1 million compared with the first quarter of 2024, and the net loss expanded from $10.8 million to $18.8 million [3]. - **Global Lithium Resources**: On August 13, it reached an aboriginal land mining agreement for its flagship Manna lithium project in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. With the agreement, the company can accelerate other project priorities, and the final feasibility study and mining lease application optimization will be completed by the end of the year. The Manna lithium project has a mineral resource of 51.6 million tons with a lithium grade of 1.0% [3]. - **Green Technology Metals**: On August 13, it obtained two new 21 - year mining licenses for its Seymour lithium project. The new licenses cover the entire proposed construction area, which is an important regulatory milestone for the project and further promotes the project's development schedule. The project only needs to be subject to provincial environmental assessment disclosure and does not require federal review under Canada's Impact Assessment Act [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to the typhoon affecting the rubber tapping process in some producing areas, while synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate as the upstream raw material price support is insufficient but the automobile production and sales data is stronger than expected. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 15,905, the trading volume was 404,764 lots, the open interest was 186,459 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 179,930. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 270, the trading volume increased by 22,582 lots, the open interest increased by 4,607 lots, and the registered warrant volume increased by 860 [2]. - The natural rubber basis was -1,180, a decrease of 395 compared with the previous day. The Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, a decrease of 25 compared with the previous day; the Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -175, unchanged from the previous day; the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was 75, an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [2]. - The natural rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was -145, a decrease of 360 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -15, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was -40, a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [2]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On August 15, 2025, the closing price was 11,815, the trading volume was 63,265 lots, the open interest was 20,356 lots, and the registered warrant volume was 10,470. Compared with the previous day, the closing price increased by 170, the trading volume decreased by 4,888 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,317 lots, and the registered warrant volume remained unchanged [2]. - The synthetic rubber basis was -248.33, a decrease of 170 compared with the previous day. The North China - East China butadiene rubber spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the South China - East China butadiene rubber spread was -50, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The synthetic rubber near - month to continuous - first spread was 65, a decrease of 190 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - second spread was -5, a decrease of 5 compared with the previous day; the continuous - first to continuous - third spread was 5, an increase of 5 compared with the previous day [2]. Supply Side - In the coming days, there will be precipitation in major producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. In domestic producing areas, affected by the typhoon, there will be heavy precipitation in Hainan, Guangxi, and other places, and also precipitation in Yunnan and other places. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 62.91%, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous week, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.71%, an increase of 1.39% compared with the previous week [2]. Inventory Side - As of August 15, 2025, the weekly warrant total inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 213,190 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 401,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared with the previous week; the bonded area inventory was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with the previous week. As of August 14, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 11,531 tons, a decrease of 1,135 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of August 15, 2025, the purchase price of rubber latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 61.2 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 1,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 15, 2025, the daily average price of butadiene (99.6%) in China was 9,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. As of August 13, 2025, the weekly import inventory of butadiene in China was 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with the previous week [2]. Demand Side - As of August 14, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 63.07%, an increase of 2.09% compared with the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 72.25%, a decrease of 2.28% compared with the previous week. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from July 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.593 million vehicles, a decrease of 311,500 vehicles compared with the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in July was 2.287 million vehicles, a decrease of 248,500 vehicles compared with the previous month; the sales volume of trucks in July was 264,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,200 vehicles compared with the previous month. The automobile market has entered the traditional off - season. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12% respectively [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 15, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest also decreased. The LME nickel rose 1.09%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel ore price remained flat, the nickel iron plant's loss narrowed, and the domestic production schedule decreased in August while Indonesia's production increased. The domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and the export profit decreased. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel plants, and alloy and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and the nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 15, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The stainless - steel production schedule increased in August, the terminal demand was weak, the high - nickel pig iron price rose, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. The current macro - sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals still needed time and there was cost support. It was expected that the price would follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Futures Market - Shanghai nickel: The closing prices of futures near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased on August 15 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 87,649 hands (- 14,608), and the open interest was 66,327 hands (- 110). The inventory increased by 1,421 tons [2]. - LME nickel: The closing price of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic disk increased by 145 to 15,195. The trading volume was 5,540 hands (- 1,692). The total inventory increased by 522 tons [2]. Spot Market - The average prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) all decreased. The basis premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract increased by 100 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron plants' losses narrowed, domestic production schedules in August decreased, and Indonesia's production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits decreased [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Futures Market - The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased on August 15 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 143,960 hands (- 16,602), and the open interest was 134,252 hands (- 985). The inventory decreased by 244 tons [2]. Spot Market - The average prices of 304/2B coil (both trimmed and untrimmed edges in Wuxi and Foshan), 304/No.1 coil in Wuxi and Foshan, and other stainless - steel products decreased to varying degrees. The basis premium of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge in Wuxi) to the active contract decreased by 85 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The stainless - steel production schedule increased in August [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The high - nickel pig iron price rose, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat [2]. Market News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [2]. - Multiple domestic provinces and cities have suspended accepting applications for automobile replacement subsidies, but scrapping and renewal subsidies continue [2]. - On August 13, Chinese nickel producer Luojia Nickel submitted an application for nickel metal brand listing on the LME. If approved, it will be the seventh Chinese nickel brand listed on the LME since 2023, which will increase the LME nickel's liquidity [2].

Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - **Profit Situation**: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].