Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The profit margin expands, lithium carbonate production rebounds, downstream demand rises, and social inventory is depleted. In the short term, both supply and demand are strengthening. However, due to the continuous fluctuations in the Jiangxi mining end, there is a need to guard against price drops caused by "anti - involution." It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures - On August 19, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 1,720, 1,680, 1,820, and 1,820 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 87,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the active contract was 734,929 lots (-301,399), and the open interest was 414,097 lots (-7,009) [1] - The inventory was 23,615 tons (+60) [1] Price of Lithium - Related Products - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton (+1,100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton (+1,100). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.85 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide was 77,740 yuan/ton (+1,000), and the average price of domestic battery - grade micron - powder lithium hydroxide was 82,710 yuan/ton (+1,000) [1] Inventory of Lithium Carbonate - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The inventory of smelters was 49,693 tons (-1,306), the inventory of downstream users was 48,283 tons (+124), and the inventory of others was 44,280 tons (+1,020). The total inventory was 142,256 tons (-162) [1] Industry News - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xuancheng Jinkong New Energy Co., Ltd., has completed equipment maintenance and will resume production soon. The maintenance aimed to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment [1] Supply and Demand Situation - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged. In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -地缘冲突 persists, with Trump's meetings with leaders of Ukraine and major European countries yielding no clear results. South American oil supply increases and the production of sanctioned countries remains strong, pressuring oil prices to decline gradually. [2] - Two 800,000 - ton PX plants in South China will restart soon, restoring PX supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. [2] - Recently, there are more PTA plant overhauls, and the low processing fee continues to be favorable. The PTA market has a small increase, and the spot offer basis strengthens. However, with new plant commissioning expected on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is trading between 5880 - 5970 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side quotes mostly increase, and downstream demand is for rigid needs, with a general trading atmosphere. [2] - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.35/barrel, down 1.69% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.79/barrel, down 1.22%; naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $574.50/ton, up 0.66%; isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $676.00/ton, down 0.66% [1] - **PTA Price**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4734 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.25%; settlement price was 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4666 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. [1] - **PX Price**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6774 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, up 0.21%; settlement price was 6792 yuan/ton, up 1.34%. Domestic p - xylene spot price on August 18 was 6609 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. [1] - **PR Price**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5906 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.37%; settlement price was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China remained unchanged at 5920 yuan/ton and 5940 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Price**: CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester filament and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged on August 19, 2025, while the price indices of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips increased slightly, up 0.31% and 0.34% respectively. [2] 3.2 Spread Information - On August 19, 2025, the PXN spread was $260.50/ton, down 0.79%; the PX - MX spread was $159.00/ton, up 4.04%. [1] - The PTA near - far month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PX basis was - 165 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PR basis in East China and South China markets increased by 22 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Production and Sales Information - On August 19, 2025, the PX operating rate was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 75.09%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate remained at 87.30%. [1] - The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased by 5.30%, 12.63%, and 11.05% respectively on August 19, 2025. [1] 3.4 Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA plant is planned for technical renovation from August 15 for 3 months. [2] 3.5 Transaction Strategy - After the price correction, it maintains a volatile trend. The TA2601 contract closed at 4734 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 549,300 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6774 yuan/ton (up 1.07%), with a daily trading volume of 222,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 42,600 lots. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain high-level consolidation due to supply increases and mixed demand, with continued attention to silicon enterprise production dynamics [1] - Polysilicon prices are also expected to stay at a high level with large market fluctuations, and it is necessary to continuously monitor macro - sentiment changes and warehouse receipt registration [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.23% to 8,625 yuan/ton [1] - N - type dense material price was flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re -投料 price was flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material price was flat at 45 yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon price was flat at 44.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 0.04% to 52,260 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon - Supply: As silicon prices rise, some previously - overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, with the arrival of the wet season, power costs have decreased, and enterprise start - up rates are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon plant stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the recent supply pressure of monomer plants has increased, and prices may be under pressure again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that production will increase slightly, reaching nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices have risen, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large - scale pre - installation in the first half of the year [1] Industry News - On August 19, TBEA Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to issue up to 8 billion yuan of convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects, and the funds will be used for a coal - to - natural - gas project with a total investment of 17.039 billion yuan [1] - From January to June 2025, Shandong Province issued 53.83 million green certificates, a 130.4% increase year - on - year, covering various renewable energy types [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Commodity Prices and Changes** - The CFR price of naphtha in Asia on August 20, 2022, was $557 per ton, up 0.66% from the previous day [1]. - The ethylene price index in North America on August 20, 2022, remained unchanged at $826 per ton [1]. - The average ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on August 20, 2022, was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on August 19, 2022, was $436.3 per ton, up 0.23% [1]. - The price of methanol in the East China market on August 19, 2022, was 4,440 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - The price of polyester staple fiber on August 19, 2022, was 6,495 yuan per ton, up 0.31% [1]. - **Production and Operation Conditions** - The comprehensive operating rate of coal - to - ethylene glycol on August 19, 2022, was 61.09%, up 1.27 percentage points from the previous day [1]. - The operating rate of the PTA industry chain on August 19, 2022, was 87.30%, unchanged [1]. - The operating rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang's PTA industry on August 19, 2022, was 80.57%, unchanged [1]. - **Profit Conditions** - The after - tax gross profit of a coal - based synthesis device on August 19, 2022, was 461.95 yuan per ton [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that ethylene glycol (MEG) will maintain a volatile trend, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, and recommends maintaining a wait - and - see attitude. The reasons include the weak atmosphere in the commodity market, potential fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, stable overall domestic device operation with occasional short - stops, normal downstream polyester operation, and low but increasing port inventories [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints - This week, MEG fluctuated narrowly. The main reason was the weak atmosphere in the commodity market. In the second half of the week, the MEG futures callbacked, and there was good buying at low levels. Two large - scale plants are restarting, and port inventories are increasing but still at a low level. Downstream polyester maintains normal operation, while terminal weaving orders are mediocre [5]. - Next week, cost - side geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. On the supply side, short - stops of domestic plants may occur occasionally, and overall operation is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, there are few planned plant changes, and the determining factor for the turning point of filament load will shift from equity inventory to processing fees. Port inventories are expected to remain low despite the increase [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: This week, the trading volume was 476,600 lots, and the open interest was 148,500 lots (a decrease of 56,800 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on August 18 was 4346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to August 11. The settlement price on August 18 was 4353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton or 1.16% compared to August 11 [10][12]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4518 yuan/ton on August 12, and the low - end was 4442 yuan/ton on August 14. From August 10 - 16, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. The foreign - market price was 524.7 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.9 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 88.40 yuan/ton, higher than last week's 78.00 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 100 - 115 US dollars/ton [14]. 3. MEG Plant, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Plant Operation**: From August 12 - 19, the comprehensive operating rate of MEG was 62.98%, slightly higher than 62.81% from August 5 - 11. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 64.03%, 61.43%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, there were short - stops and restarts at some plants, such as the short - stop of the Shenghong plant and the restart of the Guanghui plant [18][21][23]. - **Production Profit**: Due to the continuous strengthening of thermal coal prices and the weakening of MEG spot prices, the profit of coal - based MEG production has been further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production are - 1513.88 yuan/ton, 485.39 yuan/ton, and - 112.90 US dollars/ton respectively [31][33]. - **Inventory**: As of August 14, MEG port inventory was 495,400 tons, an increase of 78,200 tons or 11.77% compared to the previous period. The supply and demand of MEG are expected to remain basically balanced from August to September, and there is room for downward adjustment of imports [37][38]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The market's expectation of a US - Russia peace negotiation has put downward pressure on oil prices. The decline in crude oil and PTA prices has a negative impact on the market sentiment of polyester products [44][49]. - **Downstream Market**: The average weekly load of polyester plants was 86.97%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 57.81%. The prices of some polyester products have declined slightly. The inventory of polyester staple fiber has decreased, and the supply is still sufficient, while the demand is weak. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market inventory is generally abundant [48][52]. - **Weaving Market**: The shipment of grey fabrics is slow, and the number of inquiries has decreased. The operating rates of some weaving areas have increased slightly. The weekly average polyester sales rate from August 11 - 15 was estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament has decreased slightly [53][55][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX prices remained sluggish due to insufficient cost support, with multiple domestic and international PX plants restarting and overall supply on the rise. PTA prices fluctuated at a low level as there were no unexpected news, and the impact of planned PTA plant maintenance on the market had been overdrawn. Downstream polyester sales increased last weekend, relieving inventory pressure, and some polyester factories replenished stocks during the week, following the pulse law [9]. - **Market Forecast**: Geopolitical conflicts will amplify market uncertainties, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. PX is expected to remain volatile within the range of 6,650 - 6,850 yuan/ton, and PTA within 4,650 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Situation - **PX Futures**: Without unexpected news, prices continued to be sluggish. The closing price of the PX main contract on August 15 was 6,688 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.56%. The settlement price on August 15 was 6,682 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.98%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -67 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,659.6 yuan/ton, down 81.8 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -1.21% [13][15][16]. - **PTA Futures**: There were no unexpected changes, and prices were at a low level. The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 15 was 4,716 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.68%. The settlement price on August 15 was 4,708 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.42%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -3.50 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [18][20][23]. 2. Device Operation Status - **PX Devices**: Multiple domestic and international PX plants restarted, and the supply gradually recovered. The domestic operating rate of PX from August 11 - 15 was 84.97%, up from 82.01% from August 4 - 8 [32]. - **PTA Devices**: Some PTA plants carried out planned maintenance, and the overall supply was sufficient. The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.91%. For example, Ningbo Taihua's 120 - ton PTA plant restarted on August 7 after maintenance, and Hainan Yisheng's 200 - ton plant started maintenance on August 1 and was expected to last until November 1 [35][36]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical factors and market supply - demand expectations, showing a weak trend. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 62.80 US dollars/barrel, down 1.08 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Brent crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 65.85 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Naphtha prices oscillated, and the economic situation remained stalemate. The weekly average price of PX spot was 831.08 US dollars/ton (CFR China Main Port), a change of -0.89% from the previous period [43][48][51]. - **Supply**: The processing margin of PX remained at a high level in the industrial chain, with the PXN weekly average at 262.05 yuan/ton, a change of -0.89% from the previous period. The PTA processing margin was in a loss state across the industry. As of August 15, the social inventory of PTA was 4.502 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from the previous week, and the change in the year - on - year growth rate was 0.26% [52][56][62]. - **Demand**: The prices of polyester products were affected by the decline in crude oil and PTA prices. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,735 yuan/ton, 7,940 yuan/ton, and 7,085 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -0.15%, -0.19%, and +0.93% from the previous period. The average weekly production and sales of polyester from August 11 - 15 were estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament decreased slightly, and the shipment speed of grey fabrics was generally slow, with the number of market inquiries decreasing compared to the previous period [67][75][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly assign an investment rating to the methanol industry but suggests a bearish outlook, advising to sell high on rallies [5][43] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell high on rallies. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [5][43] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - From August 1 to August 15, methanol prices trended lower. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol prices returned to a weak fundamental state, with increasing supply putting downward pressure on prices [5][10][43] 2. Basis and Spread - In the East China region, the spot price has been continuously at a discount to the futures price. The 09 - 01 spread has been decreasing, maintaining a C - shaped structure in the monthly spread. On August 1, the basis in East China was - 23 yuan/ton, and on August 15, it was - 6 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread was - 92 yuan/ton on August 1, and - 96 yuan/ton on August 15 [11] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profit remains high. Although the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises declined slightly, it is still at a year - on - year high. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart from late August to late September, so the upstream operating rate is expected to gradually increase. As of August 15, the closing price of Qinhuangdao steam coal was 696 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from August 1, and the FOB price of Datong steam coal was 630 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from August 1. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 77.68%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points from the previous period, and an increase of 1.04 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 50.79%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous period, and a decrease of 5.73 percentage points year - on - year [14] 3.2 Inventory - The inventory accumulation rate at East China ports has accelerated. As of the week of August 14, the inventory at East China ports was 56.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.25 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 32.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons. Inland inventory in the northwest region decreased to a low level. As of the week of August 13, the inventory in the northwest region was 18.25 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.87 tons [21] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - The operating rate of MTO remained relatively high. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefin was 81.41%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.51 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 76.92%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 7.38 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, about 68 tons, so the demand for further inventory building is low [26] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The traditional downstream industries of methanol, including acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, experienced a decline in operating rates last week, mainly due to the significant decline in acetic acid production. Overall, downstream profits are still poor, and the ability to accept high - priced methanol is limited. Currently, it is in a pre - peak season decline, and attention should be paid to the performance during the peak season from September to October [34] 5. Summary and Outlook - The methanol market has been in a weak and volatile state since early August. The report maintains a bearish view on methanol, suggesting selling high on rallies. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and it is recommended to sell high on rallies [5][43]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Weekly Report - Repeated Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts and "Anti - involution" Sentiment, Difficult to Form a Trend [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Author: Wu Jinheng from Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] Investment Ratings - Nickel: The investment strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 116,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [3][88] - Stainless Steel: The investment strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton [4][113] Core Views - Nickel: With high pure nickel production, loose supply - demand, and repeated expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][88] - Stainless Steel: Although production has rebounded, demand is average, and inventory pressure remains. However, with strong cost support and the influence of "anti - involution" sentiment, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][113] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward with a weekly decline of 0.46%, trading volume reaching 488,300 lots (+23,600), and open interest at 96,900 lots (-12,700). LME nickel rose 0.26% weekly, with trading volume at 28,400 lots (+2,700). The basis premium was 1,190 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged. In June, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports increased, and China's imports reached 4.35 million tons, up 10.7% month - on - month and down 7.2% year - on - year. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 100,600 tons, and port inventory increased by 60,000 wet tons [18][23][25] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose 7 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron rose 20 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron compared to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel narrowed. In June, China's nickel - iron imports were 1.041 million tons, up 22.8% month - on - month and 50.0% year - on - year, and imports in July were expected to decline. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, and the operating rate increased. In August, the operating rate and production of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased slightly. Nickel iron had a slight inventory reduction [30][34][43] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In August, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased, the export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased, and in June, both imports and exports of electrolytic nickel declined [47][51][54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In August, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel increased. In June, stainless - steel exports decreased by 10.6% month - on - month and 13.9% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 12.5% month - on - month and 16.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports were expected to decline in July [58][62][102] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate over pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small. In August, the production schedules of ternary precursors and ternary materials increased, while that of nickel sulfate decreased. In July, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units, down 2.0% month - on - month and up 26.3% year - on - year, and sales were 1.262 million units, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 27.4% year - on - year [67][71][79] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory decreased, Shanghai Free - Trade - Zone pure - nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 1,319 tons [80][84] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate and MHP increased, while that from externally purchased nickel matte remained flat. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel from integrated MHP over integrated nickel matte was obvious [87] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome rose, providing strong cost support. The losses of 200 - series and 400 - series stainless steel narrowed, while those of 300 - series stainless steel widened [94][98] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In August, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel increased. In June, stainless - steel exports and imports decreased, and they were expected to decline in July [102][105] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. The inventory of 200 - series and 300 - series stainless steel decreased, while that of 400 - series stainless steel increased [111]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, but the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the supply side has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Cost & Profit - The prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded due to anti - involution sentiment and increased demand. However, as the southwestern production areas enter the wet season, the electricity cost has significantly decreased, weakening the cost support for silicon prices [2]. - In July, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 1,329 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,032 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 988 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1,061 yuan/ton [32]. Supply - The number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises has increased overall this week. Northern large factories have gradually resumed supply, and after the cost in the southwestern production areas has decreased, the resumption of production has continued, with the number of open furnaces increasing. The overall supply shows an incremental trend [2]. - On the week of August 14, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week [33]. Demand - The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. As the polysilicon price has reached a high level and the southwestern production areas have entered the wet season, the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work has greatly increased. The polysilicon production in July increased to around 110,000 tons and is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons in August. The organic silicon industry has gradually recovered after some enterprises resumed work after accident - related rectification, with rigid demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak, with no incremental demand for industrial silicon for the time being [2]. Inventory - The futures price has remained at a high level, and the number of warehouse receipts has been increasing. As silicon enterprises in the southwestern production areas have gradually resumed production, the factory inventories of silicon factories have gradually accumulated [2]. - As of August 14, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons; the total factory inventories of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 171,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,100 tons. As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons of spot [120]. Market Outlook The fundamentals of industrial silicon show both increasing supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains significant. Recently, driven by macro - sentiment, the silicon price has been relatively strong and is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Polysilicon Supply - In July, some polysilicon enterprises increased production, mainly concentrated in the southwestern region and Qinghai region, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [2]. - The polysilicon production last week was 29,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. As of August 14, the polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [63]. Demand Based on the current latest silicon material price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The end - market has a low acceptance of high prices, and the overseas component export tax - refund stockpiling is basically completed, with components continuing to weaken [2]. Inventory As of August 14, the total polysilicon inventory was 242,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.8 GW. As of August 15, the total number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 5,600 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased significantly [2]. Market Outlook The supply side of silicon materials has a strong incremental expectation, the demand side has no significant change, the number of warehouse receipts is gradually increasing, but the bullish sentiment is still strong. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 44,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the implementation of policies [2]. 3. Organic Silicon Supply In July, the operating rate of China's DMC was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the DMC output was 199,800 tons, a month - on - month decline [89]. Demand The demand for organic silicon is weak, and the price is declining. As of August 8, the average price of DMC was 11,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.17%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92%; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. New orders are weak, and monomer factories are selling at reduced prices [95]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy Supply On the week of August 14, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 percentage point [104]. Price The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of August 15, the average price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand of lead are in a stalemate, and it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% month-on-month to 16,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract increased by 0.03% month-on-month to 16,850 yuan/ton; the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 1.12% to 1,981 US dollars/ton [14]. 2. Supply Side 2.1 Ore Tightness Pattern Not Alleviated, Import TC Decreased - The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat month-on-month at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the import lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/dry ton to -80 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of ore tightness remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of August 8, the smelter profit (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 72.5 yuan/ton [32]. 2.2 Primary Lead开工率 Increased to 68.07% - The primary lead smelter that had undergone maintenance earlier has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The total weekly output of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises is expected to be 52,075 tons [33][38]. 2.3 Recycled Lead开工率 Declined - As of August 15, the average price of waste batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, remaining flat month-on-month. The market - circulating supply of waste batteries is limited, and the quotation is relatively firm. As of August 15, large - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 444 yuan/ton, and small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises had a comprehensive loss of 1,023 yuan/ton. As of August 14, the raw material inventory of recycled lead was 132,400 tons, and the finished product inventory was 16,300 tons. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41%, and the weekly output decreased [46][49][56]. 3. Demand Side - The lead battery operating rate increased by 2.05 percentage points to 67.3%. From the terminal perspective, battery consumption is average, dealers are mainly consuming inventory, the peak - season effect has not yet appeared, and production enterprises are mainly producing based on sales [63]. 4. Import and Export - As of August 8, the refined lead export loss was about 2,400 yuan/ton. As of August 15, the import profit was -579.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [73]. 5. Inventory - As of August 14, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 71,700 tons, with a slight increase. As of August 15, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 64,800 tons, showing a month - on - month increase; as of August 14, the LME inventory was 261,100 tons, showing a decrease [82][85].