FICC日报 | 2025-07-04 缩量反弹，板块轮动 市场分析 非农数据超预期。国内方面，6月财新中国服务业PMI录得50.6，较5月回落0.5个百分点，下行至2024年四季度以来 最低。6月综合PMI产出指数反弹1.7个百分点至51.3。据商务部，1-5月，我国服务进出口总额32543.6亿元，同比 增长7.7%，其中，出口14033.7亿元，增长15.1%；进口18509.9亿元，增长2.7%。海外方面，美国国会众议院以218 票赞成、214票反对的表决结果通过了总统特朗普推动的"大美丽"税收与支出法案。该法案将美国联邦政府的法定 债务上限提高5万亿美元，国会预算办公室估计，这可能会让政府预算赤字未来十年内增加3.4万亿美元。 IM增仓。期货市场，股指期货基差走势分化，IC、IM贴水再度加深。成交持仓方面，IF成交量增加，IC、IM持仓 量回升。 指数回升。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡回升，上证指数涨0.18%收于3461.15点，创业板指涨1.90%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，电子、电力设备、医药生物、通信行业涨幅居前，煤炭、交通运输、钢铁行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额继续回落至1.3万亿 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-07-04 市场流动性概况 2025-07-03，股指板块成交3899.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.43%；持仓金额9958.70亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.78%；成交持仓比为38.95%。 国债板块成交2876.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.71%；持仓金额9042.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.18%；成交持 仓比为32.97%。 基本金属板块成交3373.47亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.39%；持仓金额5142.44亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.45%； 成交持仓比为97.76%。 贵金属板块成交3313.89亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.87%；持仓金额4462.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.66%；成交 持仓比为88.80%。 能源化工板块成交4775.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.57%；持仓金额4316.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.07%；成 交持仓比为89.68%。 农产品板块成交2747.87亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.25%；持仓金额5618.28亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.22%；成 交持仓比为44.06%。 黑色建材板块成交2850.84亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The overall view is that the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate weakly. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation difference, a neutral Sino-US interest rate difference, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. The outlook suggests that the US dollar index is facing dual impacts of repeated inflation data and policy uncertainty, with a short-term weak trend. The RMB is supported by export resilience and flexible policy adjustments, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15–7.20. It is recommended to maintain a neutral and flexible allocation [30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with significantly higher volatility on the Put side than on the Call side. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY [4]. - The term structure data shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the Sino-US interest rate difference in different periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter-cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [10]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed has priced in a 65bp interest rate cut by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts has rebounded. The TGA account had a balance of $334.5 billion on June 25 (previous value of $383.8 billion, $120.7 billion/month), and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $210.8 billion. On June 24, Powell stated that there are multiple possibilities for the future monetary policy path [17]. - The US economic situation shows mixed employment, stable inflation below expectations, and marginal economic decline. Fiscal spending has declined, the economic sentiment in June has been differentiated, and retail sales in May have been under pressure [19]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations between the US and 15 key countries and regions, there is a differentiated pattern. As the deadline for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" 90-day suspension period (July 9) approaches, most negotiations have not made breakthroughs. The US government's attitude towards extension is inconsistent, and the subsequent progress needs continuous attention [20]. Event: The "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The bill consists of six parts and is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 - 2034. Trump requires the bill to be passed before Independence Day. The US Senate passed the bill on July 1, and it has been submitted to the House of Representatives [24]. Macro: Chinese Economy - The economic structure in China showed increased pressure in May. The June national PMI was 49.7, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 and a year-on-year increase of 0. The production volume increased by 0.3 to 51, and new orders increased by 0.4 to 49.5. Different industries showed different trends [25][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter-period: None [3] Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic boost continues, the commodity atmosphere is slightly pushed up, international oil prices and propane prices have slightly increased, and the cost support for polyolefins has strengthened [2] - Some previously overhauled plants have restarted, leading to higher capacity utilization and increased domestic supply, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000-ton/year PP Line 4 successfully put into production [2] - The terminal industry is still in the off-season, with the agricultural film industry operating at a low level and other terminal industries maintaining weak operations. There are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, and factory operations remain at a low level, intensifying the expected supply-demand contradiction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7284元/吨（-4），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+2），LL华北现货为7190元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-94元/吨（+24），LL华东基差为16元/吨（+4），PP华东基差为46元/吨（-2） [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为212.3元/吨（-154.6），PP油制生产利润为-207.7元/吨（-154.6），PDH制PP生产利润为243.3元/吨（-10.4） [1] III. Polyolefin Non-standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-99.6元/吨（-1.2），PP进口利润为-538.3元/吨（-1.3），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.2） [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4%（+0.0%） [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices rebounded year-on-year yesterday and have been in a volatile trend recently [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices continued to decline [2] Midstream - Chemical: The operating rates of PTA, PX, and polyester decreased [3] Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities declined seasonally [4] - Service: The number of domestic flights increased during the summer vacation [4] Market Pricing - Agricultural credit spreads have rebounded slightly recently [5] Industry Credit Spreads | Industry | Last Year | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 102.36 | 80.56 | 60.94 | 57.09 | 25.81 | 0.00 | | Mining | 38.94 | 46.31 | 39.57 | 37.35 | 34.86 | 4.90 | | Chemical | 74.08 | 66.20 | 51.92 | 49.18 | 46.66 | 0.00 | | Steel | 46.13 | 55.63 | 46.92 | 47.48 | 45.28 | 8.10 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 45.99 | 55.48 | 52.12 | 49.42 | 47.24 | 7.80 | | Electronics | 65.47 | 73.03 | 65.42 | 54.62 | 52.29 | 1.90 | | Automotive | 62.40 | 48.88 | 41.44 | 39.92 | 37.08 | 0.00 | | Household Appliances | 44.95 | 48.00 | 46.60 | 47.10 | 45.67 | 11.10 | | Food and Beverage | 44.62 | 45.57 | 36.28 | 37.12 | 35.05 | 1.40 | | Textile and Apparel | 53.88 | 52.14 | 52.04 | 52.65 | 50.47 | 5.70 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 51.66 | 200.14 | 149.91 | 146.32 | 140.66 | 7.10 | | Pharmaceutical Biology | - | 70.86 | 62.08 | 53.47 | 50.74 | 1.20 | | Necessities | 29.89 | 33.12 | 27.14 | 27.41 | 25.37 | 5.10 | | Transportation | 31.83 | 36.27 | 30.91 | 30.25 | 28.24 | 3.80 | | Real Estate | 232.48 | 146.23 | 101.32 | 100.80 | 95.16 | 0.50 | | Commercial Trade | 47.29 | 50.47 | 42.95 | 42.17 | 39.54 | 2.10 | | Leisure Services | 80.77 | 110.81 | 120.10 | 118.95 | 117.51 | 93.90 | | Banking | 31.25 | 27.05 | 18.83 | 18.64 | 15.98 | 1.30 | | Non-bank Finance | 30.86 | 34.30 | 29.98 | 30.08 | 27.97 | 5.00 | | Comprehensive | 72.39 | 48.02 | 42.55 | 41.37 | 39.32 | 0.40 | | Building Materials | 40.15 | 45.82 | 38.38 | 37.31 | 34.14 | 3.80 | | Building Decoration | 44.57 | 53.79 | 60.04 | 51.32 | 49.56 | 11.10 | | Electrical Equipment | 57.19 | 85.69 | 80.21 | 72.51 | 73.08 | 33.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 34.79 | 43.22 | 43.32 | 44.40 | 43.66 | 24.20 | | Computer | 68.04 | 65.47 | 49.65 | 46.60 | 43.96 | 0.00 | | Media | 249.31 | 46.75 | 39.22 | 37.92 | 35.66 | 0.00 | | Communication | 35.73 | 32.75 | 24.50 | 29.10 | 29.42 | 8.50 | [47] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot Price: Corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 2367.1 | 0.61% | - | | | Spot Price: Eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 5.6 | -3.46% | - | | | Spot Price: Palm Oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 8744.0 | 2.15% | - | | | Spot Price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 15199.8 | 1.30% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/3 | 20.3 | -0.10% | - | | | Spot Price: Copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 81021.7 | 2.71% | - | | | Spot Price: Zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 22400.0 | 0.70% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 20870.0 | 1.21% | - | | | Spot Price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 122933.3 | 0.41% | - | | | Spot Price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 17100.0 | 0.16% | - | | Black Metals | Spot Price: Rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3104.0 | 1.43% | - | | | Spot Price: Iron Ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 720.2 | 0.62% | - | | | Spot Price: Wire Rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 3292.5 | 1.54% | - | | | Spot Price: Glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/3 | 14.0 | 0.94% | - | | Non-metals | Spot Price: Natural Rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 13858.3 | -0.14% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/3 | 825.5 | -0.44% | - | | Energy | Spot Price: WTI Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 67.5 | 3.90% | - | | | Spot Price: Brent Crude Oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/3 | 69.1 | 2.11% | - | | | Spot Price: Liquefied Natural Gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 4062.0 | 1.75% | - | | | Coal Price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 727.0 | 0.14% | - | | Chemical | Spot Price: PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 5031.3 | -1.02% | - | | | Spot Price: Polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 7466.7 | -0.60% | - | | | Spot Price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1829.0 | 0.35% | - | | | Spot Price: Soda Ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/3 | 1252.5 | -6.36% | - | | Real Estate | Cement Price Index: National | Daily | - | 7/3 | 136.7 | -0.80% | - | | | Building Materials Composite Index | Daily | Points | 7/3 | 111.8 | 1.31% | - | | | Concrete Price Index: National Index | Daily | Points | 113 | 96.4 | -0.87% | - | [48] Policy Focus Production Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on promoting the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry and aims to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] Service Industry - Shanghai plans to optimize the duty-free shopping environment for outbound tourists, aiming to increase the number of duty-free shops and consumption scale by 2027 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views - The economic situation in China and the US is complex. In China, the economic sentiment has improved slightly, but there are still pressures in the manufacturing sector. In the US, the labor market is strong, but there are signs of weakness in retail sales and manufacturing [1][2]. - The "Big Beautiful" bill in the US has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump. The progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - Macro - inflation trading is heating up, with the non - ferrous sector, gold, and the black sector being key areas of concern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the May investment data is weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue. Exports are under pressure, while consumption shows resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI have all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The new order index has entered the expansion range, and investment and consumption demand are expected to be released with the implementation of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible further growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - In the US, the deadline for the suspension of tariffs is approaching. There are various trade negotiation situations among countries. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI has risen. The Fed Chairman has not ruled out the possibility of a July interest rate cut. The US House of Representatives has passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, which is expected to be signed by President Trump on July 4th. The US May retail sales decreased significantly, and the June ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, but the June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, causing traders to abandon their bets on a July interest rate cut [1][2]. Macro - inflation Trading - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the passage of the US "Big Beautiful" bill and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are key areas of concern, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [4]. To - do List - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. The Iranian president has approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th and the verification of production increase [3].

Report Overview - Investment Rating: Neutral [4] - Core View: Iranian methanol plants are gradually resuming production, ports are experiencing a slight inventory build - up, and the basis has returned to a reasonable level after the June paper - cargo delivery. There is still pressure from future arrivals, and MTO plants have maintenance plans in July. Inland coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, but traditional downstream industries are resilient, and inland factories have no inventory pressure. The impact of the "orderly exit of backward production capacity" mentioned in the meeting needs further attention [3] Market News and Key Data Inland - Coal price: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Production profit: Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 715 yuan/ton (+8) [1] - Methanol prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 2010 yuan/ton (+8), Inner Mongolia South Line is 2020 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Linyi is 2330 yuan/ton (+0), Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei is 2185 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Basis: Inner Mongolia North Line basis is 196 yuan/ton (-3), Shandong Linyi basis is 116 yuan/ton (-10), Henan basis is - 4 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei basis is 31 yuan/ton (-10) [1] - Inventory: Longzhong inland factory inventory is 352,280 tons (+10,730), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,500 tons (+18,000) [1] - Pending orders: Longzhong inland factory pending orders are 233,250 tons (-7,450), and Northwest factory pending orders are 110,400 tons (-9,100) [1] Port - Methanol prices: Taicang methanol is 2460 yuan/ton (-25), Changzhou methanol is 2465 yuan/ton, Guangdong methanol is 2455 yuan/ton (+5) [2] - Basis: Taicang basis is 46 yuan/ton (-35), Guangdong basis is 41 yuan/ton (-5) [2] - Import price: CFR China is 283 dollars/ton (+0), and the East China import spread is 2 yuan/ton (-46) [2] - Inventory: Longzhong port total inventory is 673,660 tons (+3,160), Jiangsu port inventory is 333,000 tons (-23,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 176,500 tons (+37,000), Guangdong port inventory is 120,500 tons (-13,500) [2] - Downstream MTO operating rate: 84.60% (-2.82%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (+28), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 100 yuan/ton (-33), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 120 yuan/ton (-25), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 230 yuan/ton (+25), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+30), East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 20 yuan/ton (-25) [2] Strategy - 9 - 1 inter - period spread: Do reverse arbitrage when the spread is high [4] Directory Summary I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Include figures such as methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Include figures of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import spreads between different regions [26][30] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - Include figures of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operating rate [34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Include figures of spreads between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Include figures of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, etc [53][58]

供应端小幅增长，关注需求改善情况 市场分析 1、7月3日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3588元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨0.25%；持仓222124 手，环比减少5171手，成交141409手，环比下降10969手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3640—4070元/吨；华南，3620—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-04 昨日华北、山东以及华南市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。原油价格有所上涨，对 沥青现货市场心态存在提振，BU盘面则呈现震荡偏强走势，波动率相比之前明显降低。就沥青自身基本面而言， 整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强， 另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体增量不多，当前供应压力相对有限。与此同时， 天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求表现一般，情绪仍较为谨慎，市场驱动不足。但随着南方地区梅雨季节结 束，终端消费存在一定改善预期，值得保持关注。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-07-04 高硫燃料油市场结构持续调整，低硫端相对坚挺 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.05%，报2987元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.89%，报3623 元/吨。 随着中东局势缓和，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油溢价也迅速回落，并带动能源板块大幅下跌，目前市场重回基 本面主导的逻辑，盘面波动率也显著降低，FU、LU进入窄幅震荡状态。 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需求超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 就高硫燃料油市场而言，近日价差结构明显转弱，现货贴水、月差、裂解价差连续走低，反映现货端供应相对充 裕，利好驱动不足。目前来看，欧佩克增产将带动中高硫原油与燃料油供应提升。此外，与以色列停火后伊朗出 口有回升迹象，供应压力或开始显现。需求方面，目前夏季发电端需求较为旺盛，航运端消费也相对持稳。炼厂 端需求则需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引增量，近期国内部分炼厂消费税抵扣比例上调也有利于高硫燃料油进口 需求回升。因此，高硫燃料油市场结构调整充分后将迎来新的支 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 政策端扰动较大，多晶硅短期波动显著放大 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8600-8800（50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9100 （50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8200（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（0）元/吨。 SMM统计7月3日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.2万吨，较上周环比减少1万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.6万吨，较 上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比增加1.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅企业周度产量环比小降，主 因个别单体厂周内有降负荷生产情况，从月度周度看，7月份有机硅产量环比预期小增，对工业硅需求量表现尚可。 铝硅合金企业周度开工率小幅走弱，主要受需求淡季订单疲软影响。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格震荡运行，现货价格企稳。短期供需边际好转，西南开工增加，西北大厂开工存在不确 定性，消费端环比改善，显性库存降低，但总库存或维持增加，没有政策干预情 ...