化工日报 | 2025-11-11 华东主港大幅累库，本周到港计划仍多 核心观点 市场分析 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为66.1万吨（环比+9.9万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为56.4万吨（环比+6.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数14.6万吨，副 港到港量6.1万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨，副港到港量4.7万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累 库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 11月中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升。需求端，近期随着降温，聚酯下游适 度好转，但聚酯负荷提升有限。 策略 单边：谨慎逢高做空套保。高供应下四季度累库压力较大，后期投产计划较多，中旬附近乙二醇到港计划依旧呈 现中性偏多，港口库存预计逐步回升 跨期：EG2601-EG2605反套 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期现货方面：昨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bearish [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase significantly as rainfall decreases in major production areas, which may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later stage, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. [12] - For butadiene rubber, the supply is expected to increase this week, while the downstream demand is lackluster and the downstream production is restricted in some areas. The supply - demand situation has weakened, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November. [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons. [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. From January to September, the exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. [3] - China's automobile production and sales: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. [4] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. [4] - EU passenger car market: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 510 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 460 yuan/ton (+ 15), the NR basis was 943.00 yuan/ton (+ 15.00). [6] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.34), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40). [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+ 0.77%). [8] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+ 17,061), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931). [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 185), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). [9] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (- 0.88%). [10] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (- 160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (- 1,430). [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, the outlook is neutral. The supply of raw materials is expected to increase, but the cost support is strong, and the supply - demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The spread between RU and NR is expected to widen. [12] - For BR, it is cautiously bearish. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is lackluster, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-11 供需偏弱，PVC震荡探底 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4614元/吨（+3）；华东基差-74元/吨（-33）;华南基差-4元/吨（-13）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4540元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4610元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-100元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-769元/吨（-6）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+79）；PVC出口利润4.8美元/吨（-0.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.5万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存54.6万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.17%（+3.70%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.23%（-1.27%）；PVC开工率79.28%（+2.19%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量74.2万吨（-3.2）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）845.8元/吨（-40.0）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）43.78元/吨（-10.0 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 下游以签订长单为主 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-10，LME铅现货升水为-10.74美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至17350元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17325元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至17375元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-10，沪铅主力合约开于17440元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化85元/吨，全天交易日 成交31610手，较前一交易日变化4404手，全天交易日持仓58725手，手较前一交易日变化-1093手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17535元/吨，最低点达到17440元/吨。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 资金情绪影响较大，碳酸锂增仓大幅上涨 市场分析 2025-11-10，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于82600元/吨，收于87240元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.36%。当日成 交量为986569手，持仓量为534483手，前一交易日持仓量490951手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4210元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27491手，较上个交易日变化159手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价79000-82500元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价78150-78950元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格995美元/吨，较前一日变化55美元/吨。据SMM 数据，市场情绪受需求利好高涨，上游惜售情绪渐浓，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，市场成交极少。目前，上下 游企业正在就明年的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高 位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端开工率均维持在60%以上，成为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂产量可以维持10 月的生产量级，环比大致持平。需求方面， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; may stop falling in the short term, but the upward drive is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and the restart of downstream devices brings demand increments, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds, and the futures market stops falling and consolidates [2] - The supply side has a phased reduction, but the supply is still loose, and the factory inventory pressure is still high. The demand side is driven by downstream bargain - hunting purchases, and the overall profit margin of downstream products has improved. The demand support for propylene may increase later [2] - International oil prices still face oversupply pressure, and the external propane market is continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Information includes the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the market price of propylene in East China, and the market price of propylene in Shandong [6][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information involves the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][27] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Information covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Information includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [63][69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. No recommendations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Core View - With the increase in external market and domestic spot prices, the futures market showed a slightly stronger and volatile trend yesterday. The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend, supported by tight regional supply. The overall combustion demand was weak, while the chemical demand was relatively stable, but profit margins restricted further growth in raw material demand. Currently, the LPG market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Analysis - On November 10, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4400 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3630 - 4050 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4200 yuan/ton; South China market, 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of December 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 543 US dollars/ton and 542 US dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 US dollar/ton, equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton and 4228 yuan/ton respectively, both up 9 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 538 US dollars/ton and 537 US dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton and 4189 yuan/ton respectively, both up 17 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market was stable with a slight upward trend, and tight regional supply supported prices. Overseas arrivals were delayed, leading to tight supply in some domestic regions. The overall combustion demand was weak, while the chemical demand was relatively stable, but profit margins restricted further growth in raw material demand. The LPG market had a mix of bullish and bearish factors, the supply - demand pattern remained loose, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Inter - period: No recommendation [2] - Cross - variety: No recommendation [2] - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2] - Options: No recommendation [2]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-11 市场流动性概况 2025-11-10，股指板块成交6542.67亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.68%；持仓金额13417.18亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.38%；成交持仓比为48.49%。 国债板块成交3408.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.90%；持仓金额8882.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.93%；成交持 仓比为37.99%。 基本金属板块成交4227.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+14.72%；持仓金额6021.77亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.58%； 成交持仓比为87.21%。 贵金属板块成交7700.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+37.13%；持仓金额4478.87亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.22%；成 交持仓比为221.68%。 能源化工板块成交4114.64亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.41%；持仓金额4622.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.38%； 成交持仓比为80.77%。 农产品板块成交2798.22亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.52%；持仓金额5810.93亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.34%；成交 持仓比为45.81%。 黑色建材板块成交2596 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate entered a correction period in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in the last week of November [1]. - The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas is fragile, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still "out of reach." [3] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the overall valuation support is constantly rising. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [4][5]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Maersk's 46 - week quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam is 1335/2230, and it has issued a price increase letter for December to 2080/3200 [1]. - Geopolitical situation: The first - stage cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been in effect for one month, but its implementation has been full of twists and turns, and the second - stage agreement is still uncertain [3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity in the remaining 4 weeks of November is 246,500 TEU, and the monthly average weekly capacity in December is 338,800 TEU. There are 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 3 TBNs in December [3]. Contract Analysis - 12 - month contract: It focuses on the trading rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level. The price increase expectations and actual implementation will alternate. If each price increase letter lands at about 300 US dollars/FEU for three rounds, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 points [4]. - 2026 February contract: There may be a large expectation gap, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Attention should be paid to how the exchange defines the delivery settlement price [5]. Market Data - As of November 10, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 70,044.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,041.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1604.90, EC2604 is 1166.10, etc. [6]. - On November 7, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1323 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2212 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2848 US dollars/FEU. On November 10, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1504.80 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1329.71 points [6]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 9, 2025, 226 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - month contract will fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None at present.