Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market continues to be weak, with supply remaining abundant and demand showing slight improvement. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution policies [4]. - The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. The demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4921 yuan/ton (+45), the East China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (+5), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (-15) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+50), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (+30) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit is - 502 yuan/ton (-81), and the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit is - 672 yuan/ton (-1). The PVC export profit is 7.4 dollars/ton (+0.2) [2]. - Inventory and production - start: The PVC factory inventory is 31.0 tons (-0.6), the social inventory is 53.2 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based production - start rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based production - start rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall production - start rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [2]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+1.8) [2]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2571 yuan/ton (+11), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 70 yuan/ton (-89) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 845 yuan/ton (-25), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1650 yuan/ton (-78), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 746.4 yuan/ton (-78.1) [3]. - Inventory and production - start: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (-3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda production - start rate is 83.40% (-0.80%) [3]. - Downstream production - start: The alumina production - start rate is 85.21% (+0.83%), the printing and dyeing production - start rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber production - start rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [3]. Market Analysis - **PVC**: The overall PVC market remains weak, with supply and demand improving slightly. New production - start devices increase supply, and downstream demand is improving but export expectations in the fourth quarter are weakening. The inventory is high, and there is still room for profit compression. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a slight decline. Chlor - alkali enterprise production - start rates are slightly decreasing. Demand support is weakening, but cost support exists. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm before the holidays and the production - start rhythm of Guangxi alumina [4]. Strategy - **PVC** - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V01 - 05 spread when it is low [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]. - **Caustic Soda** - Single - side: Wait and see [6]. - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [6]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent supply - side disturbances in the copper market, with low TC prices and an unstable supply situation in the scrap copper industry. Although the demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, copper prices may maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. It is advisable to conduct buy - hedging at dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 80,750 yuan/ton and closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 81,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper narrowed slightly. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,780 - 81,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) over the main contract. The last trading day saw light trading. It is expected that the spot premium may show a pattern of high quotes and low transactions [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic data: The US September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately [3]. - Tariffs: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - Mine end: Due to a mudslide at the Grasberge copper mine in Indonesia, only the Block Cave has stopped operation, and the overall mining operation in the Grasberg area is currently at 30% of normal capacity [3]. Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories are fluctuating, with the latest at 153,950 tons, a one - month low. SHFE copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, a two - and - a - half - month high. COMEX copper inventories reached a new high since mid - August 2003. As of September 9, the net long position of funds in COMEX copper futures rebounded to 27,241 lots [4]. Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 67.53%, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate rose slightly to 67.62%. This week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises may rise to 70.79%, while that of cable enterprises is expected to drop slightly to 67.5% [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 152,625 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,083 tons to 30,643 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.42 million tons, a change of 0.99 million tons from the previous week [5]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - The global cotton inventory has reached a four - year low, and the supply - demand situation of US cotton in the new year is expected to improve, but the short - term upward space of US cotton is restricted. The domestic cotton price has strong short - term support, but there is also pressure during the new flower listing period. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [2] - For sugar, the international raw sugar price is under pressure but has a certain support, and the domestic sugar price is driven downward in the short term but the downward space is limited [5] - Regarding pulp, there is still supply pressure, and the demand side is weak. In the short term, the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,167 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA's September report, in the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, the global cotton output, consumption, and trade volume increased, and the ending inventory decreased [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand data in the new year has improved, but the US cotton export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand has improved marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation is strong, and the hedging pressure during the new flower listing period is large [2] Strategy - If the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fails or is not good enough, the Zhengzhou cotton price may fall. In the long run, the cotton price is expected to rise after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,549 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.16%) from the previous day. The spot prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan remained unchanged [4] - The USDA predicts that the US sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 9.47 million short tons, and the inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2%. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of 2025 [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased production but has support from the ethanol price. The domestic sugar price has been following the international market down due to poor sales and concerns about syrup policies [5] Strategy - The short - term domestic sugar price is driven downward, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound while the price oscillates at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,056 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+1.32%) from the previous day. The spot prices of different pulp types in Shandong had different changes [6] - The import wood pulp spot market had mixed price trends, with different price adjustment ranges for different pulp types [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, although there are overseas pulp mill production cut news, the supply pattern has not changed significantly, and the domestic pulp import volume is expected to decline. The port inventory is high, so the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the global pulp consumption is weak, and the domestic demand is also lackluster [8] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [9]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-16 宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 钢材：宏观预期渐浓，钢价震荡偏强 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货价格震荡上涨，现货方面，钢材现货成交一般，低价成交尚可，以终端和前期超卖补 库为主，投机情绪一般。全国建材成交11.76万吨，钢银数据显示钢材库存有所增长。 供需与逻辑：当前库存压力下，建材基本面矛盾有所增加，价格表现承压。板材需求韧性仍在，基本面表现平稳， 价格相对偏强，关注需求改善力度。伴随美联储降息概率增长，市场对于后期国内政策加码预期渐浓，同时反内 卷政策和双节补库预期共同刺激，钢材价格表现偏强。 策略 单边：震荡偏强 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运显著回升，铁矿跟随板块 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小幅走弱，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商 报价积极性一般，钢厂采购多以刚需为主。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运显著回升，全球发运总量3573万吨， 其中巴西和非主流发运明显增长。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2362万吨，周环比减少86万吨。昨日 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-09-16 美经济数据维持弱势 中美经贸谈判达成框架共识 市场分析 经济数据方面，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数急剧下降21个点，至-8.7，远低于市场预期的5。新订单以及出货量 指标均跌至2024年4月以来的最低水平；疲软的经济数据推动市场交易可能出现的超预期宽松。美国总统特朗普 在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，"太迟先生"美联储主席鲍威尔必须立即降息，而且幅度必须比他预想 的更大。关税方面，中美经贸中方牵头人何立峰与美方牵头人贝森特在西班牙马德里举行会谈，就以合作方式妥 善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。双方将就相关成果文件进行 磋商，并履行各自国内批准程序。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-09-15，沪金主力合约开于833.82 元/克，收于 831.60 元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.31%。当日成交量 为 131159手，持仓量为 104349手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于833.48 元/克，收于 839.08元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.90%。 2025-09-15，沪银主力合约开于 10018元/千克，收于 10017 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the restart of two PDH units in Wanhua Penglai and Hebei Haiwei has increased the supply, weakening the supply - side support and causing the spot price of propylene to decline. Some units are still under maintenance. On the demand side, the profits of propylene downstream have been significantly compressed, and the overall operating rate has decreased month - on - month. Some downstream products have reduced their purchasing enthusiasm due to cost pressure, which may suppress the upward space of propylene. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, oil prices have rebounded, and the price of external propane has continued to strengthen, boosting market sentiment and causing the propylene futures to fluctuate higher [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 6442 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is 58 yuan/ton (-97), and the North China basis is 173 yuan/ton (-107) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 73% (-2%), the China CFR propylene - Japan CFR naphtha is 207 US dollars/ton (+11), and the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 95 US dollars/ton (+13) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 279 yuan/ton (-70) [1] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 33% (-4.04%), production profit is - 215 yuan/ton (+85); Epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 534 yuan/ton (+49); N - butanol operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (+53); Octanol operating rate is 96% (+1%), production profit is 65 yuan/ton (+61); Acrylic acid operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 485 yuan/ton (+153); Acrylonitrile operating rate is 72% (-1%), production profit is - 539 yuan/ton (+111); Phenol - acetone operating rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is - 272 yuan/ton (+25) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 31710 tons (-5320) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short - term range operation for polysilicon [5][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Inter - commodity: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] Core View - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The intraday sharp rise and then fall of the industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the rise of coking coal. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise as the current valuation is low [2] - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. The policy is still in progress, and the futures fluctuate greatly. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,725 yuan/ton and closed at 8,800 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 290,948 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,905 lots, down 93 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions rose slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was slightly adjusted up [1] - The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were sufficient, and the inventory pressure was not large. Downstream enterprises' procurement rhythm remained unchanged, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices, with limited support for the market. Silicone is expected to stabilize in the short term [1] Polysilicon - On September 15, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,630 yuan/ton and closed at 53,545 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 132,212 lots (134,898 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 237,981 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.79%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.78%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.31%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a month - on - month change of 0.73%) [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.33 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.68 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece) [4] - Silicon wafer enterprises may raise prices. N - type silicon wafers - 183mm may rise to 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type silicon wafers - 210R to 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm to 1.7 yuan/piece. The price increase of 183mm is likely to be accepted by downstream, while the other two sizes need to pay attention to the transaction situation [6] - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price rose slightly following the futures. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. Attention should be paid to whether there are policies for capacity withdrawal. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. Participants should pay attention to risk management. They need to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices. Short - term range operation is recommended [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG futures market is oscillating with a slight upward trend, and market sentiment has marginally improved. However, the global oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for LPG is still weak. Also, due to the rebound in LPG procurement costs, PDH profit has shrunk again, and the plant operating rate has dropped to around 70%, indicating limited upward price breakthrough space [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Sections Market Analysis - On September 15, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4550 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4000 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4570 - 4685 yuan/ton; South China market, 4448 - 4640 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 603 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton) and 583 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4717 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) and 4561 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 596 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton) and 576 dollars/ton (up 1 dollar/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4662 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) and 4506 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The LPG futures market has shown an oscillating and slightly upward trend recently. Spot prices in North China, East China, and Northwest regions rose slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable. Overall, the global oversupply pattern persists, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for LPG is weak. Also, with the rebound in LPG procurement costs, PDH profit has shrunk again, and the plant operating rate has dropped to around 70%, suggesting limited upward price breakthrough space [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The market is oscillating with a slight upward trend. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the PG main contract at low prices, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated at high prices. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Analysis - On September 15, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 71,260 yuan/ton and closed at 72,680 yuan/ton, with a 2.31% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 482,790 lots, and the open interest was 309,446 lots, compared to 309,402 lots the previous day. The current basis is 50 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 38,963 lots, a change of 338 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 71,300 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 69,600 - 7,0800 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 810 US dollars/ton, a change of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories are generally in a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and market transactions have weakened. However, due to the peak demand season and pre - National Day stockpiling needs, their purchasing willingness is strong when prices are relatively low [1]. - In terms of supply, lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounts for over 60% of the market supply, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. In September, the market shows a situation where both supply and demand increase, but demand grows faster, and a temporary supply shortage is expected this month [1]. - The weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons, with small increases in production from spodumene, mica, and salt lakes. The weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, while inventory in the intermediate links and smelters decreased significantly, indicating good downstream restocking willingness [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, among 623 products of large - scale industries, 319 had year - on - year production growth. For example, steel production was 122.77 million tons, a 9.7% increase; cement was 148.02 million tons, a 6.2% decrease; ten non - ferrous metals were 6.98 million tons, a 3.8% increase; ethylene was 3.14 million tons, a 10.4% increase; automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a 10.5% increase, among which new - energy vehicles were 1.333 million vehicles, a 22.7% increase; power generation was 936.3 billion kWh, a 1.6% increase; and crude oil processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% increase [2]. 2. Core View - The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday, mainly affected by leading companies' upward revision of battery cell shipment expectations. With support from the peak consumption season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the market has some support. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the short term. After the resumption of mining production and the weakening of consumption, the market may decline [3]. 3. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies. - Inter - delivery spread: None. - Cross - product: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3].