期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前市场对 25/26 榨季各主产国的供应前景均较乐观，熊市周期下原糖长期仍有下行压力，短期需关注糖醇价差收窄后巴西制糖比 情况，中期关注巴西压榨进度及印度出口政策，原糖下半年存在阶段性反弹机会。国产糖由于产销进度偏快，短期存在支撑，但三 季度进口放量预期下，郑糖反弹空间受到压制…… 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖半年报 2025-7-6 增产周期未改，市场仍有反复 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 ...

李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 供应方面，因近两年全球新增阔叶浆产能较多，而针叶浆由于有老旧装置退出，产能不增反降，针阔叶浆供应端逐渐分化，导致去 年以来针阔价差持续拉大。2025 年上半年木浆进口量同比增加，其中阔叶浆进口量累计同比增幅较大。国内下半年也有较多纸浆产 能投产，在国产浆替代下，木浆进口量预期有所回落。不过由于当前港口去库节奏较慢，国内纸浆港库水平持续处在近几年高位， 整体来看下半年纸浆供应压力仍存，阔叶浆宽松程度仍将高于针叶浆…… 宏观压制需求，浆价底部震荡 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 纸浆半年报 2025-7-6 宏观压制需求，浆价底部震荡 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前中美达成框架协议，但关税细节仍未公布，宏观不确定性仍存。25/26 年度全球棉花供需仍偏宽松，美棉新年度平衡表预计改 善有限，ICE 美棉预计下半年维持震荡运行，但仍需关注后续各主产国天气及贸易政策变化。国内郑棉在库存偏紧预期影响下短期 走势偏强，但新年度疆棉预期丰产，贸易战令需求也难有爬升，新棉集中上市后棉价压力较大…… 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 棉花半年报 2025-7-6 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 2025 年上半年产区苹果价格呈现偏强运行。2024-2025 产季入库量高于前期市场预期，出库时间明显提前，2024 年 11 月初陆续有 产区开始出库。目前产地剩余库存量仍处于近 5 年偏低位置，6 月份行情表现清淡，库内成交氛围不浓，性价比高的货源成交尚可， 大果走货不快，季节性淡季影响明显，消暑类水果需求继续对苹果走货形成压制…… 苹果供需暂无突出矛盾，红枣关注新季生 长情况 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 果蔬半年报 20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global oil and fat market operated in a complex and changeable pattern, with significant price differentiation among the three major oils and fats. The core drivers were the re - balancing of supply and demand, international trade policy games, and the transformation of the biodiesel industry. The global supply of oils and fats tended to be loose overall, while the structural evolution on the demand side became a key variable, with biodiesel policies dominating the long - term logic [4][101]. - The import volume of the domestic oil and fat market in the first half of the year was restricted by international trade frictions and customs clearance policies, and the consumption was weak overall. Inventory differentiation further highlighted structural contradictions [4][5][102]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - In January, affected by the USDA report, CBOT soybeans rose, and domestic soybean oil and palm oil futures prices also increased. Spot - end basis prices changed accordingly [13]. - In February, palm oil futures prices soared due to Indonesia's policies and Brazil's soybean harvest progress, while soybean oil was affected by domestic soybean customs clearance and state - reserve sales, and rapeseed oil declined slightly [13]. - In March, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated, palm oil futures prices fell, and soybean oil futures prices fluctuated with the influence of South American soybeans [21]. - In April, palm oil and soybean oil futures prices declined due to factors such as OPEC + production increase and Brazilian soybean arrivals, while rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated [21]. - In May, palm oil futures prices fluctuated, soybean oil futures prices first rebounded and then declined, and rapeseed oil futures prices rose [27]. - In June, palm oil futures prices rebounded, soybean oil futures prices rose, and rapeseed oil futures prices fell. Spot - end basis prices generally weakened [29]. Global Oil and Fat Supply Analysis Global Soybean Supply Remains Loose - Global soybeans have had three consecutive years of production increases. In the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 426.8 million tons, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The global soybean ending inventory is expected to reach 125.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 22.08% [30][33]. - The weather in the US soybean - corn belt has improved, and the soybean good - to - excellent rate is at a good level, with a high probability of a bumper harvest [37]. Global Rapeseed Supply Recovers Significantly - In the 2024/25 season, global rapeseed production decreased due to frost in Europe and the Black Sea region. However, in the 2025/26 season, production is expected to reach 89.773 million tons, with significant increases in major producing countries [42][45]. - The overall growth of Canadian rapeseed is good, although there are some risks in the Manitoba region [53]. Global Palm Oil Enters the Seasonal Production Increase Period - In the first half of 2025, Malaysian palm oil production recovered after a low in January - February, and Indonesian palm oil production also reached multi - year highs in March - April [54]. - Indonesia raised the export tax on crude palm oil in May, and Malaysia lowered the export tariff in July. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy is restricted by subsidy funds [57][58]. Overseas Biodiesel Demand Analysis Global Biodiesel Production Trend - In 2025, global biodiesel production is expected to decline, with only Indonesia and Brazil showing an increase. The EU, the US, China, and India are expected to see a decrease in demand [61][62]. - Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% starting from August 1, which will boost soybean oil consumption [62]. Current Situation of the US Biodiesel Industry - In the first half of 2025, the US biodiesel industry faced pressure from falling crude oil prices and the 45Z policy. Industry profits were poor, and production was low. However, US soybean oil exports increased [64][67]. Impact of Future US Biodiesel Policies - The proposed US RVO plan for 2026 and 2027 will significantly increase the mandatory biodiesel blending volume, and the new 45Z policy will enhance the competitive advantage of US soybean oil. If implemented, it will have a long - term positive impact on the global oil and fat market [74][75]. Domestic Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Analysis Import - From January to April 2025, domestic direct imports of soybean oil decreased, and soybean imports decreased in the first four months and then increased in May. Rapeseed oil direct imports increased, while rapeseed imports decreased. Palm oil imports decreased in the first four months, and the import volume may gradually recover after June [76][81][86]. Consumption - The overall consumption of domestic oils and fats in the first half of 2025 was weak. Soybean oil consumption was affected by supply, and consumption is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. Rapeseed oil consumption was constrained by high inventory, and palm oil consumption was affected by price differentials and is expected to increase in the second half [87][88][92]. Inventory - As of June 20, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The national commercial inventory of rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, and the palm oil inventory decreased in the first half of the year and then rebounded [93][95][100].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating, but the strategies for both soybeans and peanuts are rated as "Neutral" [6][8] 2. Core Views - **Soybeans**: In the short - term, the price of domestic soybeans has resilience due to the supply gap, but the increase in imported soybeans (estimated 9.5 million tons in July) and weak demand for soybean meal limit the upside. In the long - term, good weather in new - season soybean producing areas, stable yields, and a loose global supply pattern may lead to lower international prices and drag down domestic prices. The overall price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with policy factors such as provincial reserve auctions and CGSG rotation rhythms to be monitored [1][6][33] - **Peanuts**: In the short - term, the low inventory of old - crop peanuts and the lack of centralized release of cold - storage goods before mid - July support the price, but supply pressure is expected to build up in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather in 2025, the supply of new - season peanuts will be loose, and the support level may decline. However, there are uncertainties such as weather during the key growing period, the impact of imported peanuts, and the influence of soybean production on peanut prices [7][48] 3. Summary by Section Soybeans - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The domestic soybean market fluctuated greatly. Futures prices were affected by factors such as new - season supply, consumption seasons, provincial reserve auctions, and weather. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2505 dropped from 3,936 yuan/ton to 3,269 yuan/ton in January and then fluctuated throughout the first half of the year [10] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, in 2024, the sown area and yield of soybeans decreased slightly. In 2025, the domestic soybean supply showed characteristics of decreasing domestic inventory and fluctuating imports. Policy support may increase the sown area in the future. On the demand side, the demand for pressing was strong first and then weak, while the edible demand was continuously weak. The inventory of domestic soybeans was low, and the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [18][27][30] - **Future Outlook**: The price of domestic soybeans is expected to remain range - bound, with short - term price support from the supply gap and long - term downward pressure from a loose global supply pattern and weak demand. Policy factors may strengthen the expectation of loose supply [33] Peanuts - **Half - year Market Review in 2025**: The peanut market also fluctuated. Futures prices were affected by factors such as supply and demand in the market, new - season sowing delays, and consumption. For example, the futures price of the main contract 2503 slightly dropped from 7,928 yuan/ton to 7,920 yuan/ton in January and then rose and fluctuated [36] - **Half - year Supply and Demand Analysis in 2025**: On the supply side, the domestic peanut production in 2024 was basically the same as that in 2023. In 2025, the sown area is expected to increase due to lower costs. The supply rhythm showed that the remaining grain decreased, and the import volume was at a low level in the first four months. On the demand side, the demand from oil mills was weak, and the edible demand was affected by consumption downgrade [38][43][45] - **Future Outlook**: In the short - term, the price has support, but supply pressure is expected in September. In the long - term, if there is no extreme weather, the supply will be loose, and the support level may decline. There are also uncertainties in weather, imports, and the impact of soybean production [46][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on July 3, 2025. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On July 3, 2025, the trading volumes of different options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 707,900 contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 791,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1,065,800 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 83,100 contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 1,261,200 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option was 17,500 contracts; CSI 300 stock index option was 72,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 option was 166,600 contracts [1]. II. Option PCR - The PCR data of different options on July 3, 2025, showed various changes. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 0.70, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the position PCR was 0.98, with a month - on - month change of +0.03. Each option type had its own specific PCR values and changes [2]. III. Option VIX - The VIX data of different options on July 3, 2025, also had different changes. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 13.99%, with a month - on - month change of +0.03%. Each option type had its own VIX value and change rate [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively explores the fundamentals, trading strategies, and price characteristics of stock index futures in the Chinese market. It analyzes the development, trading mechanisms, and influencing factors of stock index futures, aiming to provide investors with a detailed understanding and practical strategies for investment and risk management [18][167][204]. - It emphasizes the importance of basis in stock index futures research, as it is a key indicator for many hedging and arbitrage strategies. The report also highlights the impact of factors such as market sentiment, dividends, and macro - economic indicators on the basis [89][138][109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Preliminary Exploration - **Definition and Characteristics**: Stock index futures are standardized financial futures contracts with stock indices as underlying assets. They have features like standardized contract design, margin - leveraged trading, T + 0 trading, and daily mark - to - market settlement. They play functions such as hedging, speculation, and arbitrage [18][19]. - **Differences from Stock Indices**: Stock indices are used to measure market trends and cannot be directly traded, while stock index futures are tradable contracts with expiration dates, allowing for long and short positions. Their price fluctuations are affected by different factors [18]. - **Contract Design**: There are four listed stock index futures varieties in China. Each variety has four contracts with different expiration dates. The contract value is calculated by multiplying the contract price by the contract multiplier. The naming, switching, and characteristics of contracts are also introduced [27][37]. - **Market Development**: The development of China's stock index futures market has gone through stages of initial exploration, suspension, policy research, and gradual relaxation. The number of varieties has gradually increased, and market liquidity has gradually recovered [38][39][42]. - **Trading Groups**: The participants in the stock index futures market include hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs. Different types of institutional investors have different participation purposes and restrictions [52]. - **Seat Data**: Seat data in the stock index futures market reflects the behavior and confidence of investment entities. By analyzing seat characteristics, seats can be classified, which helps in understanding market trends [66][82]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures Basic Research - **Basis Overview**: Basis is defined as the difference between the stock index futures price and the index price. It has characteristics such as converging to zero as the expiration date approaches and showing mean - reversion. The annualized basis rate is used for comparison between different contracts [88][89]. - **Basis and Market Conditions**: The basis can act as a market sentiment indicator and has a leading relationship with the market. It can also show trend divergence from the index, providing insights into market trends [95][98]. - **Basis Distribution Characteristics**: Stock index futures are often in a state of contango, mainly due to hedging demand. The basis is related to factors such as macro - economic indicators (e.g., treasury bond yields), shows seasonality, and has a certain convergence speed [102][109][114]. - **Basis Modeling**: Building a basis prediction model requires identifying relevant factors, quantifying them with appropriate factors, and combining them through mathematical models. The influencing factors are divided into those from the spot market and the futures market [124]. - **Stock Index Futures and Index Dividends**: Index dividends affect the basis of stock index futures. The price index will decline with dividends, and the basis needs to be adjusted according to dividend expectations. Methods for calculating index dividend points and predicting ex - dividend dates are also provided [138][142][148]. 3.3 Stock Index Futures Trading Strategies - **Hedging Strategies**: Hedging aims to reduce investment risks by establishing opposite positions. The four elements of hedging are variety selection, contract selection, hand - number selection, and timing. Different methods can be used for each element to optimize the hedging effect and reduce costs [167][170][175]. - **Cash - and - Carry Arbitrage Strategies**: Cash - and - carry arbitrage takes advantage of the price difference between the spot and futures markets. When the futures are at a premium, a long - spot and short - futures strategy is used; when at a discount, the opposite is done. Setting appropriate opening thresholds can help balance risk and return [204]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategies**: Calendar spread arbitrage exploits the price difference between contracts with different expiration dates. The influencing factors of the spread include market sentiment, basis, and trading behavior. When the market is expected to rise, a long - far - short - near strategy can be used; when it is expected to fall, a long - near - short - far strategy is appropriate [208][214].

下游畏高情绪较重 铜价高位震荡 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-03，沪铜主力合约开于 80560元/吨，收于 80560元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.02%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80,460元/吨，收于 80,540 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.27%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日铜市现货交投清淡，SMM1#电解铜报价80870-81090元/吨，现货升水70-160元/吨，均价115元/ 吨，较前日微降5元。期货主力合约早盘自81000元高位回落至80760元后企稳，最终收于80900元附近，隔月价差 维持在210-250元区间。市场呈现供大于求态势，早盘平水铜报价80-100元/吨后快速下调至70元方有成交，好铜因 货源紧缺维持130-160元高升水。湿法铜缅甸货源贴水20元至平水成交，非注册品牌贴水50元左右。考虑到进口铜 陆续到港且下游畏高情绪浓厚，预计今日现货升水将维持当前水平。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，在经济数据方面，美国6月季调后非农就业人口增加14.7万人，好于预期，失业率意外下 降至4.1%。交易员 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate has likely reached its peak as Maersk and MSC have kept their freight rates unchanged in the second half of July. The EC2510 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [4][5]. - The supply of the US - bound routes has rapidly recovered, and the freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West coasts of the US have dropped from their highs. The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route are still uncertain as to when they will peak, and the settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of July 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 83,240 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 39,157 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1338.70, 1172.90, 1319.90, 1896.90, 1363.90, and 1538.70 respectively [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for the 29th week from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1785/2990. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27th was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1st was 2123.24 points [1][6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July was 261,900 TEU, and in August it was 269,900 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events in Israel may affect the shipping market. The supply and demand of the US - bound routes have both increased, and the capacity has been rapidly restored. The congestion situation of container ships globally and the passage of ships through major canals such as the Suez, Panama, and around the Cape of Good Hope are also factors affecting the supply chain [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly after the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The industrial production index, import and export data, consumer confidence index, and retail sales data of the EU 27 countries are important factors affecting the demand for shipping [2].