Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent changes in the Russia - Ukraine battlefield show that Ukraine has shifted its targets from refineries to important export ports. Damage to important export terminals could significantly impact Russia's oil exports, and the subsequent situation needs close monitoring [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Key Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's October - delivery light crude oil futures rose 61 cents to $63.30 a barrel, a 0.97% increase; November - delivery London Brent crude futures rose 45 cents to $67.44 a barrel, a 0.67% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.11% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump proposed sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, aiming to end the war and save lives [1] - Ukraine's drone and special operations forces attacked Kirishi Refinery in Russia's Leningrad Oblast. The refinery, one of Russia's top five, has an annual output of about 20 million tons [1] - The Doha Arab - Islamic Summit declared efforts to suspend Israel's UN membership [1] - The US Treasury Secretary said the US is willing to consider stricter sanctions on Russia, including targeting oil giants and using frozen Russian assets [1] Investment Logic - The shift in Ukraine's attacks from refineries to export ports may have a greater impact on Russia's oil exports, and the follow - up situation requires close attention [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy rainfall in Malaysia may affect the palm oil picking progress in the short term [1] - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA report maintains the expectation of a soybean bumper harvest, and the overall soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China-US negotiation is ongoing, which may have a further impact on future market prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall in palm oil producing areas [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.36% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,376.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.65% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +43.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.43%. The spot basis was P01 + -122.00, with a month-on-month change of -86.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, with a month-on-month change of -14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.50%. The spot basis was OI01 + 210.00, with a month-on-month change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - As of September 15, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.70444 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons compared to the same period last week - The Sabah state government of Malaysia announced the cancellation of the state-level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday (16th) at the Independence Square in Kota Kinabalu due to heavy rain causing floods in at least seven counties - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to last week, with a decline rate of 0.01% - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to last week, with an increase rate of 3.58%; an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, with an increase rate of 24.92% - According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 was 742,648 tons, a 2.6% increase compared to the export volume of 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-16 经济数据波动，沪指震荡收跌 市场分析 经济数据波动。国内方面，8月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%、环比增长0.37%，服务业生产指数同 比增长5.6%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%、环比增长0.17%。1-8月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%， 其中制造业投资增长5.1%，房地产开发投资下降12.9%。《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《纵深推进全国 统一大市场建设》，文章强调我国作为全球第二大消费市场，必须把全国统一大市场建设好，增强我们从容应对风 险挑战的底气。文章指出，要着力整治企业低价无序竞争乱象。海外方面，美国9月纽约联储制造业指数急剧下降 21个点，至-8.7，远低于市场预期的5。新订单以及出货量指标均跌至2024年4月以来的最低水平。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，沪指跌0.26%收于3860.50点，创业板指涨1.52%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，电力设备、传媒、农林牧渔、汽车行业涨幅居前，通信、国防军工、银行、有色金属行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额为2.28万亿元。海外方面，特朗普表示，鲍威尔必须立即降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on September 15, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to help investors understand the market conditions of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 15, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.1156 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.3422 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 2.1128 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.1266 million contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.9948 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 0.0346 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1549 million contracts; the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 0.2504 million contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.60, with a month - on - month change of +0.14; the position PCR was reported at 0.84, with a month - on - month change of +0.00. Similar data for other options are also provided, showing different changes in turnover PCR and position PCR [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 19.38%, with a month - on - month change of +0.56%. The VIX and its month - on - month changes of other options are also presented, such as the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 20.29%, with a month - on - month change of +0.70% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 10 - month contract is mainly short - allocated in the off - season, with its valuation continuing to be revised downwards. The uncertainty lies in the second half of October. The 12 - month contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and recently, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November. The far - month contracts should pay attention to the recent Trump tariff risk [4][5][6]. - The strategy includes a weakly fluctuating main contract for unilateral trading and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies for arbitrage [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of September 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index Europe route futures is 83,189.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 31,407.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1516.90, 1253.90, 1431.90, 1603.70, 1163.10, and 1656.20 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping alliances are provided, such as Gemini Cooperation (Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam prices in weeks 38 and 39, HPL - SPOT prices in late September and early October), MSC + Premier Alliance (MSC, ONE, HMM, YML prices), and Ocean Alliance (CMA, EMC, OOCL prices). As of late September, the central price has dropped to around 1500 - 1600 US dollars/FEU (equivalent to about 1050 - 1120 points of SCFIS) [1][2][4]. - On September 12, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1154 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2370 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3307 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1440.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1349.84 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From September to November 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European basic ports shows different levels. There are 15 blank sailings and 1 TBN in October and 3 blank sailings and 6 TBN in November. HPL has announced two additional vessels in October [3]. - As of September 14, 2025, 186 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.495 million TEU. Among them, 59 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 886,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events, such as Israel's stance on the Hamas leadership in Qatar, may have an impact on the supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand in the US line is weak, with the US NRF estimating that the container import demand in the US from September to December will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the off - season of shipping, the demand is generally low, but in the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume usually remains at a high level [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The port inventory pressure of methanol remains high, but after the resumption of downstream MTO Xingxing, the port basis has slightly bottomed out and rebounded, and the port inventory accumulation rate may slow down, but the arrival pressure is still large, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [2] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol start - up in the inland has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month; the inventory of inland methanol factories is still low, and the overall situation is that the inland is stronger than the port. The port back - to - inland window is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, and methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The figures in this part cover the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [26][27][31] III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - The figures present the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P start - up rate (including integration), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol start - up rate (including integration) [34][35][37] IV. Regional Price Differences - The figures display the price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, Taicang - Lunan, etc [39][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures include the production gross profit of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [51][56][58]

FICC日报 | 2025-09-16 再提"全国统一大市场"，商品情绪有所提振 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月外部压力边际增加，一是中国8月出口有所转弱，尤其是对美出口，但非美出口的韧 性也对后续出口提供支撑；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时 报》和路透社披露，特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频 提稳增长政策。9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表 示"不断释放内需潜力""推进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。商务部决定自2025年9月13日起对 原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。中美双方于9月14-17日在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行 会谈。此外，中国8月新增社融2.57万亿元，新增贷款5900亿元，企业新发放贷款利率保持历史低位，M2-M1剪刀 差创四年新低。中国8月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，预期增5.7%，前值增5.7%，装备制造业和高技术制造业 增势较好；中国8月社零同比增速放缓至3.4%，家电和音像器材类零售增速放缓 ...

Report Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.41% at 2,799 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.65% at 3,375 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation. With the peak of refinery autumn maintenance approaching, demand will decline seasonally. Under the trend of continuous OPEC production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing stage, with both long and short factors intertwined. Near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East and other regions is expected to gradually decline, and high-sulfur fuel oil exports still have room for growth. On the positive side, Russian and Iranian supplies are affected by drone attacks and sanctions respectively, and Middle East fuel oil shipments in September have also significantly declined. Overall, short-term market contradictions for high-sulfur fuel oil are limited. If refinery demand improves significantly, the market will receive new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery has increased low-sulfur fuel oil exports, increasing market supply pressure. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has declined, and there is no expectation of serious oversupply. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity. Therefore, while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [2] Directory Summaries Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 2.41% at 2,799 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.65% at 3,375 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are in a range-bound oscillation. With the peak of refinery autumn maintenance approaching, demand will decline seasonally. Under the trend of continuous OPEC production increase, the crude oil balance sheet is expected to gradually loosen. However, due to geopolitical uncertainties and low actual inventories, the short-term direction of oil prices is unclear, providing limited guidance for fuel oil prices [1] - High-sulfur fuel oil is in the market rebalancing stage, with both long and short factors intertwined. Near-term supply is relatively abundant, and Singapore's inventory is at a high level. As summer ends, fuel oil demand in the Middle East and other regions is expected to gradually decline, and high-sulfur fuel oil exports still have room for growth. On the positive side, Russian and Iranian supplies are affected by drone attacks and sanctions respectively, and Middle East fuel oil shipments in September have also significantly declined. Overall, short-term market contradictions for high-sulfur fuel oil are limited. If refinery demand improves significantly, the market will receive new support [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of the RFCC unit at Nigeria's Dangote refinery has increased low-sulfur fuel oil exports, increasing market supply pressure. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region has declined, and there is no expectation of serious oversupply. In the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity. Therefore, while there is some support below the valuation, the upward resistance is also large [2] Strategy - High-sulfur: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Low-sulfur: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

贵金属板块成交3350.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-29.88%；持仓金额5044.83亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为80.65%。 能源化工板块成交4203.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.90%；持仓金额4380.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.91%；成 交持仓比为80.02%。 农产品板块成交3457.56亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.29%；持仓金额5498.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.60%；成 交持仓比为65.12%。 流动性日报 | 2025-09-16 市场流动性概况 2025-09-15，股指板块成交7132.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.13%；持仓金额13125.18亿元，较上一交易日变动 -5.02%；成交持仓比为53.98%。 国债板块成交3661.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.19%；持仓金额7347.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.52%；成交 持仓比为50.86%。 基本金属板块成交3210.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.46%；持仓金额5265.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%； 成交持仓比为76.86%。 黑色建材板块成交3087 ...