1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - PVC: After the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East eases, the PVC market returns to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with supply in excess and cost - side support lacking. Although exports are stable, domestic demand is weak, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise [3]. - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream procurement is not active, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has risen. The caustic soda market lacks positive drivers, and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit still has room to compress [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4872 yuan/ton (+1). The East China basis is - 142 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 42 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. Production Profit - Upstream: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), and the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - PVC production: The gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The in - plant PVC inventory is 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social PVC inventory is 35.5 tons (+0.0) [1]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.43% (+0.81%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1]. Downstream Orders - The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 64.8 tons (+1.0) [1]. Caustic Soda Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2311 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 127 yuan/ton (-32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. Production Profit - Single - product profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1446 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Comprehensive profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 823.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 111.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1233.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.04 tons (+2.39), and the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.58 tons (-0.27) [2]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of caustic soda is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2]. Downstream Operation Rate - Alumina operation rate is 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2].

苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差659元/吨（+77元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润400元/吨（+148元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润205元/吨（-94元/吨），PS生产利润-545元/吨（-144元/吨），ABS生产利润213元/吨（-43 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-27 下游EPS开工提升，EB基差再度走强 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费169美元/吨（+8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费152美元/吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差55.6美元/吨（+2.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（-15元/ 吨）。 风险 纯苯方面，国产开工压力偏高，下游CPL及苯胺开工 ...

利好不足，市场氛围平淡 液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-27 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t6月26日地区价格：山东市场，4600—4830；东北市场，4160—4310；华北市场，4600—4650；华东市场， 4530—4700；沿江市场，4750—4960；西北市场，4300—4350；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌9美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4699元/吨，跌74元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，跌17美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4652元/吨，跌137元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，能源板块波动率下滑，LP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the methanol industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the market is starting to price in the expectation of Iranian plant restart. Attention should be paid to the progress of Iranian plant restart. In reality, port inventories have increased this week, but the absolute level is still low. Against the backdrop of low inventories in Taicang, the paper cargo delivery location, short - covering before the paper cargo delivery in late June has led to a rapid strengthening of port basis and a deeper discount in the futures market. Regarding MTO, some MTO plants had maintenance intentions earlier, and attention should be paid to the implementation progress in July. In the inland region, the coal - based methanol production rate remains high, but the inland plant inventories have decreased, indicating certain resilience in inland demand. The regional price difference between the port and the inland has declined from its high level and is expected to compress further [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Multiple charts show the basis of methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27][31] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Charts present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operating rate of methanol production in China (including integrated plants) [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - Charts show the price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][47][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts illustrate the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. There may even be a squeeze - out situation, so it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton, closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,643 lots, an increase of 16,421 lots from the previous day, and the position was 51,182 lots, an increase of 36,029 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,150 yuan/ton and 17,255 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,260 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, smelters offered prices at par with SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead contracts 2507/2508. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. With the rise in lead prices, smelters actively offered for sale, and the mainstream production areas sold at discounts. Downstream enterprises only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in limited transactions. Some traders bought large - discount goods, and due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, some holders intended to deliver to the warehouse, and such transactions were fair [2] Inventory - On June 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 26, the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. As the third - quarter peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries approaches and lead ore supply is tight, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. The operation range for the Pb2508 contract is 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton [3] - The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although the social financing data increased year - on - year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and the credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom - bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk - aversion sentiment, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, there were no more - than - expected loose measures, cooling the market's expectation of the central bank's treasury bond trading, causing interest - rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of loose policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra - long - term treasury bond trading was active, but the overall situation was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.31, with a decrease of 0.40 and a decline rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1603, with a decrease of 0.008 and a decline rate of 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.67, with no change and a decline rate of 0.06%; DR007 was 1.69, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.51%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.63, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78% [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures and the price change situation of various treasury bond futures varieties [9][15][17][19]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On June 26, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.670%, 1.736%, and 1.622% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][44][45]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, and the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [47][49]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [56][59][62]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [67][70]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [75][78][81]. 3.9 Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, and the 2509 contract was neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Title - Liquidity Daily Report [3][70] Report Date - June 27, 2025 [70] Core View - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on June 26, 2025, including trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Section 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes for multiple sectors including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On June 26, 2025, the trading volume was 4550.19 billion yuan, a - 26.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 10135.30 billion yuan, a - 4.83% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.51% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 2499.35 billion yuan, a - 30.48% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 8863.54 billion yuan, a - 0.05% change; the trading - holding ratio was 28.93% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume was 2959.58 billion yuan, a + 30.63% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3963.72 billion yuan, a + 1.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 119.65% [1] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 5462.92 billion yuan, a + 4.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3913.21 billion yuan, a + 0.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 97.88% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 3397.47 billion yuan, a + 12.62% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5595.45 billion yuan, a + 0.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 60.37% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 1852.91 billion yuan, a - 0.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3390.78 billion yuan, a + 0.72% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.89% [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 消费排产仍有支撑，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 市场分析 2025年6月26日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60680元/吨，收于61500元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为386982手，持仓量为345216手，较前一交易日减少5190手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳900 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619950手，较前一交易日减少10604手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加39407手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.79 。当日碳酸锂仓单22590手，较上个交易日增加220手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月26日电池级碳酸锂报价6-6.12万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.85-5.95万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.68 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.90 万吨，下游库存为4.06 万吨， 其他库存为3.72 万吨。周度产量也小幅增长305吨至1.88万吨，以锂辉石及云母生产产量均有增长。 策略 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-27 美国或考虑放松伊朗石油制裁 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨32美分，收于每桶65.24美元，涨幅为0.49%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨5美分，收于每桶67.73美元，涨幅为0.07%。SC原油主力合约收跌1.46%，报498元/桶。 2、美国石油高管在废除欧洲环境法规的努力中赢得了特朗普的支持。美国石油巨头和他们的游说者敦促特朗普和 及其内阁成员利用与欧盟正在进行的贸易谈判，推动取消《欧洲绿色协议》中的两项主要气候法律。化石燃料生 产商抓住了美欧贸易争端的契机，多年来欧盟一直试图使欧盟经济摆脱对化石燃料的依赖，并遏制排放。美国公 司抵触的法律之一是欧盟去年通过的《企业可持续发展尽职调查指令》（CSDDD），该指令旨在强制年收入超4.5 亿欧元（约合5.22亿美元）的企业，厘清并遏制其运营及全球供应链中的人权侵犯行为与气候影响。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎没有变化。美国商务部数据 显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商 ...