Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - term: Before the export window period, conduct positive spread trading on UR01 - 05 to capture fluctuations; after the export window period, conduct reverse spread trading on UR01 - 05 at high prices [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders, with light trading volume and weak domestic demand. Some regions are starting to use autumn fertilizers in agriculture, and industrial demand mainly comes from the rigid procurement of compound fertilizers and melamine. Industrial demand was relatively weak due to the impact of the parade on panel factories and compound fertilizer factories, but the operating rate will rise. Urea production remains at a high level, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation is still relatively loose. Coal - based urea has decent profits, and cost - side support is average. The export side has a significant impact on urea price sentiment. Attention should be paid to the Indian NFL urea import tender, and the export in August and September is expected to be good, which may lead to a decline in urea inventory. Focus on the resonance period of increased export speed and improved domestic demand [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][15] 2. Urea Production - Includes charts of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [17][22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Includes charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][26][34] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Includes charts of urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB price in China, urea large - particle CFR price in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB price minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR price in Southeast Asia and China's FOB price, urea export profit, and disk export profit [31][33][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Includes charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [50][51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Includes charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [55][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4] - Options: Buy put options [4] Core Viewpoints - The futures market of lithium carbonate may decline due to the news of mine restart and weak overall commodity sentiment. The price will gradually return to the fundamentals if the previously shut - down mines resume production [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On September 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,740 yuan/ton and closed at 72,900 yuan/ton, a - 2.62% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 591,675 lots, and the open interest was 351,340 lots (364,137 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 300 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,101 lots, a change of 650 lots from the previous day [2]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,700 - 75,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,750 - 72,950 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 850 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The market is in the peak demand season with downstream rigid demand, but procurement activities slowed slightly this week as the futures price rebounded. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with lithium carbonate produced from spodumene accounting for over 60% and that from lepidolite dropping to 15%. In September, supply and demand are both increasing, but demand is growing faster, and overall supply is expected to be tight [3]. Strategy - The futures market declined significantly after oscillation, affected by weak commodity sentiment and the possible approval of Jiangxi manufacturers. The short - term spot supply - demand pattern is good, with reduced inventory and production. If the previously shut - down mines resume production, the price will return to fundamentals, and the futures market may decline. Attention should be paid to mine operation, and participants should manage risks [3].

流动性日报 | 2025-09-10 市场流动性概况 2025-09-09，股指板块成交7565.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.42%；持仓金额13038.41亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.86%；成交持仓比为57.20%。 国债板块成交3693.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.27%；持仓金额7112.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.45%；成交持 仓比为52.37%。 基本金属板块成交3433.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.47%；持仓金额5039.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.11%；成 交持仓比为79.58%。 贵金属板块成交5502.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.29%；持仓金额4999.64亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.17%；成交 持仓比为119.54%。 能源化工板块成交3946.37亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.03%；持仓金额4417.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.31%； 成交持仓比为63.96%。 农产品板块成交2948.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.59%；持仓金额5529.53亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为49.48%。 黑色建材板块成交2829. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "sideways to bearish" for the unilateral strategy, with no specific ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market's fundamental situation is average. Although crude oil prices rebounded slightly on the previous day, the potential increase in OPEC production and the slight decline in diluted asphalt discounts weakened the cost - side support for asphalt. The peak demand season characteristics are not obvious, and the increase in asphalt supply in some areas has put pressure on spot prices. If oil prices lack upward momentum, the asphalt futures market may operate sideways to the downside [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - On September 9th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 241,910 lots, a decrease of 619 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 112,448 lots, a decrease of 77,019 lots [1] Spot Market - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 3,470 - 3,820 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,540 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,700 yuan/ton in East China. On the previous day, asphalt spot prices fell in North China and Sichuan - Chongqing markets, rose slightly in the Shandong market, and remained generally stable in other regions [1] Group 4: Chart Information Summary Price Charts - There are charts showing the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest China, and Northwest China, all with the unit of yuan/ton [3][5][7][10] Futures - related Charts - Charts display the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, the main contract, and the near - month contract, the near - month spread, and the trading volume and open interest of the unilateral and main contracts of petroleum asphalt futures, with units of yuan/ton and lots respectively [3][19][21][22] Production Charts - Charts present the weekly domestic asphalt production, independent refinery asphalt production, and asphalt production in Shandong, East China, South China, and North China, all with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][31][33][38] Consumption Charts - There are charts showing domestic asphalt consumption in road construction, waterproofing, coking, and ship - fuel sectors, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][40][43] Inventory Charts - Charts show the asphalt refinery inventory and social inventory according to Longzhong's data, with the unit of 10,000 tons [3][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stock index is in a wide - range volatile adjustment phase, and the market is digesting the chip pressure through fluctuations, which may take a monthly - level time. Despite the intensified short - term fluctuations, based on the optimistic expectation of the medium - and long - term trend, the stock index is unlikely to have a large - scale downward space. Actively using derivative tools for risk hedging is a reasonable strategy choice during this period [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Non - farm data was significantly revised. In China, the State Council Information Office held a series of theme press conferences on high - quality completion of the "14th Five - Year Plan", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the development achievements of the industrial and communication industries in the past five years. Overseas, the US government announced preliminary benchmark revision data, with the US non - farm employment number revised down by 911,000 from March this year, equivalent to an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000, the largest downward revision since 2000 [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% to close at 3807.29 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.23%. Most sector indexes declined, with real estate, banking, and non - ferrous metals leading the gains, and electronics, computer, communication, and pharmaceutical and biological industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2.1 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, all hitting new closing highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.43% to 45711.34 points [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded on that day. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volumes of IH and IM increased, and only the open interest of IM rose [1] Strategy - During the current stock index adjustment phase, actively using derivative tools for risk hedging is a reasonable strategy [2] Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][9][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on September 9, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.23%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.90%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.16% [11] - The charts also include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts show that the trading volume of IH and IM increased, and only the open interest of IM rose [13] - The basis data of stock index futures show the basis and its changes of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [37] - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures show the spreads and their changes between different periods of IF, IH, IC, and IM [44][45]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-10 电解铝成有色最强品种 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20770元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20650元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-130元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20730元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化5元/吨至-50元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-09日沪铝主力合约开于20695元/吨，收于20750元/吨，较上一交易日变化40元/吨，最 高价达20805元/吨，最低价达到20695元/吨。全天交易日成交99364手，全天交易日持仓194194手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存63.1万吨，较上一期变化0.5吨，仓单库存64459 吨，较上一交易日变化-74吨，LME铝库存485275吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-09SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3040元/吨，山东价格录得3030元/吨，河南价格录得 3090元/吨，广西价格录得322 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core View - The peak demand season has arrived, but it is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, with the market fluctuating narrowly. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased, with supply pressure expected to ease slightly, while new PP production capacity is being released. Downstream demand is in the transition period between the "Golden September and Silver October" seasonal off - peak and peak seasons, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend. The upstream production inventory has increased slightly, while the inventory in the middle - stream has decreased. As the peak demand season arrives in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is weakly consolidating, and the profit of PDH - made PP is slightly in the red, with an increase in the maintenance volume of PDH units [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L (LLDPE) main contract closed at 7229 yuan/ton (- 22), and the PP main contract closed at 6949 yuan/ton (- 19). The LL North China spot price was 7180 yuan/ton (+ 30), the LL East China spot price was 7190 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the PP East China spot price was 6800 yuan/ton (+ 0). The LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 52), the LL East China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+ 42), and the PP East China basis was - 149 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 80.5% (+ 1.9%), and the PP operating rate was 79.9% (- 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 344.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), the PP oil - based production profit was - 265.5 yuan/ton (- 41.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 296.9 yuan/ton (- 21.8) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 238.9 yuan/ton (- 1.6), the PP import profit was - 523.0 yuan/ton (+ 54.2), and the PP export profit was 38.8 US dollars/ton (+ 3.9) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 20.2% (+ 2.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.5% (+ 0.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.4% (+ 1.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream production inventory increased slightly, and the inventory in the middle - stream decreased [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-10 昨日苹果期价大幅收跌，主力合约完成切换，空头增仓苹果期价遇阻大幅回落，早熟富士上货量逐渐增多，下游 节日备货需求也渐显，继续关注主产区天气情况对晚熟富士的质量影响情况。上周早熟品种方面，西部嘎啦质量 问题较为突出，具体表现为不上色、果个小，货源两极分化，好货价格明显高于去年同期，部分客商收购嘎啦好 货利润较低。山东产区冷库库存基本以客商刚需补货为主，库存货源价格继续下滑，剩余货源质量不一。山东产 区早熟鲁丽、金都红、华硕、美八等陆续上市交易，整体上量不多，价格符合高开低走预期。陕西产区库存果余 量有限，陆续进入后期，受到早熟质量影响，客商转向库内货源，库内好货价格走高，形成翘尾。销区市场方面， 市场批发价格稳定，两极分化明显，早熟果上市后市场到车量较前期淡季略有增量，仍以富士苹果为主，早熟嘎 啦有所上量，早熟走货尚可，但客商利润一般，终端走货速度不快，好货消化速度尚可，差货消化缓慢。 策略 中性。库内果走货转好，但整体去库速度仍显一般，预计短期行情呈稳定态势运行。 苹果主力合约切换，回吐月内涨幅 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8033元/ ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-10 内地成交偏强，港口维持偏弱格局 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润793元/吨（+18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2098元/吨（+18），内蒙北线基差300元/吨（+28），内蒙南线2120元/吨（+50）；山东临沂2383元/吨（+13）， 鲁南基差185元/吨（+23）；河南2225元/吨（+0），河南基差27元/吨（+10）；河北2235元/吨（+0），河北基差97元/ 吨（+10）。隆众内地工厂库存341083吨（+7690），西北工厂库存219000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单237285 吨（+20300），西北工厂待发订单133200吨（+19900）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2275元/吨（+0），太仓基差-123元/吨（+10），CFR中国262美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（+8），常州甲醇2475元/吨；广东甲醇2275元/吨（+5），广东基差-123元/吨（+15）。隆众港口总库存1427655吨 （+127905），江苏港口库存760000吨（+885 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With the upcoming release of the MPOB and USDA reports, the market still anticipates inventory accumulation for palm oil. As the soybean harvest season approaches in the US, the soybean output is mostly determined. These two reports will further verify market expectations, and the market is awaiting guidance [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,486.00 yuan/ton, a +0.21% change; the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,408.00 yuan/ton, a -0.10% change; and the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,851.00 yuan/ton, a +0.16% change [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the palm oil spot price was 9,400.00 yuan/ton, a +0.43% change; in Tianjin, the first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8,510.00 yuan/ton, a -0.12% change; in Jiangsu, the fourth - grade rapeseed oil spot price was 10,050.00 yuan/ton, a +0.10% change [1] Market Data from Canada and China - Canada: As of July 31, wheat production was 35.94 million tons (vs. 33.41 million tons last year), and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons (vs. 5.28 million tons last year). Rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons (vs. 19.46 million tons last year), and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons (vs. 3.22 million tons last year) [2] - China: As of the 36th weekend of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory was 1.44 million tons, a 1.60% increase; soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a 9.09% increase; imported rapeseed oil inventory was 0.71 million tons, a 4.01% decrease. The contract volume of imported rapeseed oil was 77,000 tons, a 44.65% decrease [2] International Commodity Prices - Canada: Rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was $514/ton; (January shipment) was $522/ton [2] - Argentina: Soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was $1,164/ton; (December shipment) was $1,168/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil: Canada (October shipment) was $1,070/ton; (December shipment) was $1,050/ton [2] - Soybeans: US Gulf (October shipment) C&F price was $466/ton, up $1/ton; US West (October shipment) was $445/ton, up $8/ton; Brazil (October shipment) was $489/ton, up $2/ton [2] - Imported soybean premiums: US Gulf (October shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, down 5 cents; US West Coast (October shipment) was 178 cents/bushel, up 13 cents; Brazil ports (October shipment) was 298 cents/bushel, down 2 cents [2]