Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The asphalt market is under pressure with local spot prices falling. The current fundamental situation of asphalt is weak, with sluggish terminal demand and concentrated release of long - term refinery resources, suppressing the spot market. Without significant fluctuations in the cost side, the market is expected to continue weak and volatile [2]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 207,852 lots, a net increase of 7,905 lots, and the trading volume was 263,304 lots, a net increase of 82,215 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,406 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,150 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China 3,370 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot prices in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing. - Inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy. - Futures - spot: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts has deepened, and weak economic data may add more weight to the Fed's decision to continue cutting rates in December. Short-term risk aversion catalysts are weakening. Gold and silver prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold may fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 940 yuan/gram, and the Ag2512 contract for silver may fluctuate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, saying the Fed's policy is too tight and the longer it remains restrictive, the greater the risk of an economic downturn. He reiterated that the neutral policy rate is far below the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50-basis-point rate cuts. Governor Cook said each Fed meeting is a real-time decision on monetary policy, the current policy is moderately restrictive, inflation remains high and faces upward risks, and a rate cut in December is possible but depends on new information. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. New orders declined for the second consecutive month, the production index was weak, and the price payment index hit a new low since the beginning of this year [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 924.60 yuan/gram and closed at 922.58 yuan/gram, a change of 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 921.90 yuan/gram and closed at 919.52 yuan/gram, a 0.33% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,455.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 752,034 lots, and the open interest was 261,467 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,455 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,350 yuan/kilogram, a 0.92% decline from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 3, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, up 2.71 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes was 0.505%, down 0.38 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,855 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,997 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 341,261 lots, a 13.8% decrease from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 2,117 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,530 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,267,986 lots, a 16.7% decrease from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,039.20 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,190 tons [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On November 3, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 4.41 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -905.77 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 80.54, a 0.59% decrease from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 81.97, a 0.93% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 3, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,556 kilograms, a 5.20% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 525,416 kilograms, a 7.75% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112,200 kilograms [7]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-04 液氯价格大幅下调 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4680元/吨（-21）；华东基差-80元/吨（-9）;华南基差0元/吨（+1）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4600元/吨（-30）；华南电石法报价4680元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格740元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-763元/吨（-40）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-545元/吨（+16）；PVC出口利润-3.7美元/吨（+7.2）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.8万吨（+0.4）；PVC社会库存54.5万吨（-1.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.47%（+4.82%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.50%（-0.06%）；PVC开工率77.09%（+3.35%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.4万吨（+13.9）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2350元/吨（+40）；山东32%液碱基差150元/吨（-40）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1250元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - PTA follows cost fluctuations. The market focus is on the increased maritime inventory of Russian oil. If most is compliant oil, there will be significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q4; if most is sanctioned oil, the impact on price decline is limited. PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA has low processing fees and high inventory pressure after November. The demand side has improved marginally, but the long - term inventory accumulation expectation has limited improvement. Polyester demand has improved, and the load in November is expected to remain stable. PF has good fundamentals, and the processing difference is expected to be strong. PR processing fees are expected to fluctuate with raw materials [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA & PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [23][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX loads in China and Asia [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [46][48][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, and relevant operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and various month - to - month spreads [89][91][98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory has rebounded this week, indicating weak downstream提货 demand. Styrene is in the maintenance period, and the operation rates of caprolactam and phenol are still low. On the supply side, the domestic pure benzene operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded [3]. - Styrene is under short - term maintenance, but port arrivals are still acceptable. The decline in port inventory is due to a short - term increase in downstream提货. However, the operation of ABS remains at a low level, the operation of PS further decreases, and the inventory pressure of the three hard - plastic finished products is still high. The continuous performance of downstream提货 remains to be observed [3]. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - The report presents figures on pure benzene's basis and futures contract price, pure benzene's basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene's inter - period spread between the first and third contracts [8][11]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the naphtha processing fee, the spread between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene's non - integrated production profit, and various internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene [17][20][27]. III. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene's East China port inventory is 12.10 tons (+3.60 tons), and its operation rate has bottomed out and rebounded. Styrene's East China port inventory is 179,300 tons (-13,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 109,800 tons (-11,200 tons), and its operation rate is 66.7% (-2.5%) [1][34][36]. IV. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS production profit is 255 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 45 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 144 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton). EPS operation rate is 62.24% (+0.27%), PS operation rate is 52.00% (-1.80%), ABS operation rate is 72.10% (-0.70%) [2]. V. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1870 yuan/ton (-70), phenol - acetone production profit is - 478 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1098 yuan/ton (+48), adipic acid production profit is - 1178 yuan/ton (-63). Caprolactam operation rate is 86.05% (-2.84%), phenol operation rate is 78.00% (+0.00%), aniline operation rate is 78.57% (+2.09%), adipic acid operation rate is 58.00% (+2.20%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell and hedge BZ and EB at high prices. - Basis and inter - period: No strategy. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Apple: The new - season Fuji apple's storage work has started. Due to continuous rainfall, the storage volume is expected to be lower than last year. The market shows a "two - tiered" pattern, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm in the short term, and the storage volume and structure being key factors for future market trends [3][4] - Red dates: As red dates are about to be harvested, the futures prices have dropped significantly, increasing market competition. Attention should be paid to changes in purchase prices and actual yields [8] Summary by Sections Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9104 yuan/ton, a change of - 134 yuan/ton or - 1.45% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, also unchanged. The spot basis AP01 - 1604 for Qixia and AP01 - 804 for Luochuan both changed + 134 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The storage work in late Fuji producing areas continues. In Shandong, the ground transactions are increasing, with high - quality goods prices remaining stable and firm. In Shaanxi, the storage work is gradually starting, and in Gansu, it is almost finished. The prices vary by quality, and the market is expected to remain "two - tiered" in the short term. The storage progress has slightly accelerated [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fluctuated and declined yesterday. The ground transactions are entering the later stage, with a "two - tiered" market pattern. High - quality goods prices are expected to remain stable and firm. The storage work in the west is slow, while in Shandong, it is concentrated after the Frost's Descent and also slow [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Due to continuous rainfall, the expected storage volume in November is lower than last year [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10280 yuan/ton, a change of + 135 yuan/ton or + 1.33% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 880 changed - 135 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In Xinjiang, the purchase progress varies by region. Some areas have basically completed the purchase, while others are still in progress. The purchase price is based on quality. In the Hebei market, the price has slightly decreased, and the market mainly trades old goods. In the Guangdong market, the price is stable [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price rose significantly yesterday. The purchase in Xinjiang is at a critical stage. The downstream market has weak demand, and the purchase enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has decreased. The price in the Hebei market has slightly declined [7] Strategy - Neutral. With red dates about to be harvested, the futures price has dropped significantly, and attention should be paid to purchase price changes and actual yields [8]

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-04 供应压力持续，压制甲醇价格 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润600元/吨（-15）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1980元/吨（-25），内蒙北线基差437元/吨（+12），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2195元/吨（-25）， 鲁南基差252元/吨（+12）；河南2050元/吨（-30），河南基差107元/吨（+7）；河北2155元/吨（+0），河北基差272 元/吨（+37）。隆众内地工厂库存376060吨（+15700），西北工厂库存231300吨（+12300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 215558吨（-92），西北工厂待发订单113600吨（-6400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2102元/吨（-55），太仓基差-41元/吨（-18），CFR中国249美元/吨（-8），华东进口价差-19元/ 吨（+31），常州甲醇2285元/吨；广东甲醇2125元/吨（-40），广东基差-18元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1506470吨 （-5730），江苏港口库存824300吨（-26200），浙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy upstream prices are fluctuating, while the chemical mid - stream starts to increase. The report also presents various events in the production and service industries, as well as price and operation data of different industrial chains from upstream to downstream [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Mid - level Event Overview 3.1.1 Production Industry - On November 3, affected by rising production costs and continuous supply shortages, TSMC has started annual price negotiation with customers, with an expected 3% - 10% increase in advanced process prices in 2026. Samsung Electronics has suspended DDR5 DRAM contract quotes in October, and other storage manufacturers are expected to resume quotes around mid - November [1]. 3.1.2 Service Industry - China has decided to resume travel agencies' business of organizing Chinese citizens' group tours to Canada. The visa - free policy for France and other countries will be extended to December 31, 2026, and Sweden will be visa - free from November 10, 2025, to December 31, 2026 [1]. 3.2 Industry Overview 3.2.1 Upstream - **Black**: Iron ore prices have rebounded [3]. - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices have declined [3]. - **Energy**: Liquefied natural gas prices have dropped [3]. 3.2.2 Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX start - up rate has been rising, and the urea start - up rate has remained stable [3]. - **Energy**: Coal inventories in power plants have increased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The asphalt start - up rate has gone up [3]. 3.2.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have decreased [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [3]. 3.3 Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On November 3, the spot price of corn was 2150.0 yuan/ton (- 0.20% year - on - year), eggs were 6.2 yuan/kg (- 1.13% year - on - year), palm oil was 8714.0 yuan/ton (- 3.39% year - on - year), cotton was 14859.2 yuan/ton (+ 0.19% year - on - year), and pork was 18.0 yuan/kg (- 0.28% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On November 3, the spot price of copper was 86941.7 yuan/ton (- 1.48% year - on - year), zinc was 22328.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.59% year - on - year), aluminum was 21450.0 yuan/ton (+ 1.53% year - on - year), and nickel was 122216.7 yuan/ton (- 0.11% year - on - year) [32]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On November 3, the spot price of iron ore was 817.4 yuan/ton (+ 2.31% year - on - year), rebar was 3178.2 yuan/ton (+ 0.55% year - on - year), and wire rod was 3335.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.53% year - on - year) [32]. - **Non - metals**: On November 3, the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter (0.00% year - on - year), and natural rubber was 14658.3 yuan/ton (- 1.29% year - on - year) [32]. - **Energy**: On November 3, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 61.0 dollars/barrel (- 0.85% year - on - year), Brent crude oil was 65.1 dollars/barrel (- 1.32% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas was 4320.0 yuan/ton (+ 2.53% year - on - year), and coal was 817.0 yuan/ton (+ 0.99% year - on - year) [32]. - **Chemical**: On November 3, the spot price of PTA was 4558.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.51% year - on - year), polyethylene was 7088.3 yuan/ton (- 0.49% year - on - year), urea was 1590.0 yuan/ton (- 2.15% year - on - year), and soda ash was 1204.3 yuan/ton (- 0.47% year - on - year) [32]. - **Real Estate**: On November 3, the national cement price index was 136.3 (+ 1.43% year - on - year), the building materials composite index was 113.0 points (+ 0.89% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index was 91.0 points (- 0.10% year - on - year) [32].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy rating: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy rating: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The supply of raw materials remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead is slowly resuming production. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is suppressed by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Social inventories are at historical lows, but with the recovery of supply and the arrival of imports, inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Overall, the lead price is constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The expected price range is approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot remained unchanged at 17,250 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,390 yuan/ton, closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,978 lots, a decrease of 13,341 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 68,089 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory, with few actual transactions. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 170 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 75 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead with small-volume transactions. With the lead price consolidating, downstream battery enterprises were mostly in a wait-and-see mode, mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On November 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 3, the LME lead inventory was 216,800 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low prices [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2) Core Viewpoints - After important macro events, crude oil prices are in a volatile state, and the short - term guidance for FU and LU directions is limited. The strength - weakness pattern of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has shown marginal changes [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the spot market has loosened, the market structure has adjusted. OPEC's production increase and the decline in power generation terminal demand will drive the growth of Middle - East exports, while the situations in Russia and Iran are uncertain [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, with the restart of the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure has eased. Kuwait's November shipments are expected to decline due to the maintenance of Azur refinery's units. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has short - term repair conditions but lacks continuous positive drivers [1]. 3) Directory - based Summaries Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.42% at 2,790 yuan/ton; the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.93% at 3,335 yuan/ton [1]. - Crude oil prices are volatile as the market assesses the impact of sanctions on Russian supply, with limited short - term guidance for FU and LU [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil spot has become looser, and the market structure has adjusted. OPEC's production increase and lower power - generation demand will boost Middle - East exports, while Russia and Iran's situations are variable [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has eased locally with the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit. Kuwait's November shipments are expected to fall due to Azur refinery's unit maintenance, and the market has short - term repair conditions but no continuous positive drivers [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: Go long on the spread of LU2601 - FU2601 at low prices [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - There are multiple figures showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore's high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spot, swaps, and domestic fuel oil futures contracts, with their respective units (e.g., dollars/ton, yuan/ton, hands) [3]