Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.12%; the spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and future domestic supply is expected to be abundant; overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import volume is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Given the high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and with many production plans, port inventories are expected to gradually increase [3]. - Inter - period: Go short on EG2601 and long on EG2605. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply shortage in the mining sector and the persistently low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association proposes to set an upper limit on smelting capacity. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The strategy for November is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with a suggested buying range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 90,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,210 yuan/ton and closed at 87,300 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 87,430 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 80 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 5 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price dropped, attracting downstream buyers, but more arrivals made holders eager to sell, pressuring the spot premium. It is expected that downstream buyers will continue to bargain today, and the spot premium is unlikely to rise significantly [2] Important Information Summary - Interest rate: Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, while Governor Cook said December rate cuts depend on new information. Economic data: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, with new orders falling and production weak [3] Mining End - Tanzania's election unrest closed the Dar es Salaam Port, causing shipping delays and cost increases. Ivanhoe Mines' Prat Reef Phase I concentrator started feeding on October 29, and Indonesia approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrate [4] Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline to 134,625 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased 10.83% to 116,140 tons, reaching a six - month high. International copper inventory decreased by 1,422 tons to 15,059 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate to 355,660 tons, the highest since mid - April 2003 [4] Consumption - In October, the copper cable market was sluggish due to high copper prices, with the monthly operating rate between 60% - 63%, down significantly year - on - year. In November, the market is still dominated by rigid demand, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 325 tons to 133,600 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 356 tons to 40,066 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [6][7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Category | Project | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 03 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | - 5 | 0 | - 45 | 15 | | | Premium Copper | 60 | 55 | - 5 | 70 | | | Flat - water Copper | - 30 | - 50 | - 75 | - 30 | | | Wet - process Copper | - 100 | - 115 | - 135 | - 80 | | | Yangshan Premium | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 26 | - 43 | | Inventory | LME | 133,600 | 134,625 | 135,975 | 141,725 | | | SHFE | 116,140 | | 104,792 | | | | COMEX | 322,649 | 320,493 | 315,665 | 294,007 | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | 40,066 | 39,710 | 35,392 | 26,823 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 9.95% | 10.54% | 7.59% | 5.68% | | Arbitrage | CU2602 - CU251 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 70 | - 40 | - 10 | - 300 | | | CU2512 - CU2511 (Main - Near Month) | 40 | | - 20 | - 20 | - 240 | | | CU12/AL12 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.02 | | | CU12/ZN12 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 3.95 | 3.81 | | Import Profit | - 872 | - 793 | - 786 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | 8.07 | 7.99 | 8.03 | 8.07 | [26][27][28][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The peak of device maintenance has passed. Although there is a phased reduction in supply, the supply remains loose. Demand is mainly rigid, and it is difficult to see significant improvement. International oil prices have risen slightly, and the rise in the price of external propane has increased cost support and narrowed PDH profits. The supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remain loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of the cost side and the registration of warehouse receipts in South China [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract price, East China market price, and Shandong market price [5][8][10] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene production profit and capacity utilization include the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [15][17][18] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Data on propylene import and export profit include the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on propylene downstream profit and capacity utilization include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [65]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-04 市场流动性概况 2025-11-03，股指板块成交7411.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.52%；持仓金额13606.25亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.39%；成交持仓比为54.40%。 国债板块成交3367.53亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.48%；持仓金额8845.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.07%；成交持 仓比为38.15%。 基本金属板块成交3925.86亿元，较上一交易日变动-24.08%；持仓金额5959.58亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.94%； 成交持仓比为71.46%。 贵金属板块成交6423.11亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.83%；持仓金额4343.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.81%；成交 持仓比为167.28%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 | | --- | | 二、股指板块 5 | | 三、国债板块 6 | | 四、基本金属与贵金属（金属板块） 7 | | 五、能源化工板块 8 | | 六、农产品板块 9 | | 七、黑色建材板块 10 | 能源化工板块成交4457.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.37%；持仓金额4433.86亿元，较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Views - The supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig industry is difficult to change, and the long-term supply pressure is obvious, mainly due to the superposition of consumption decline and supply increase after the Spring Festival; in the egg industry, although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed in the off-season of egg consumption [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,735 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.68%; Spot: The price of ternary live pigs in Henan was 12.21 yuan/kg, a change of -0.32 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of -0.14 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.84 yuan/kg, a change of -0.16 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.0% from last Friday; beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%; mutton was 63.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.7%; eggs were 7.29 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.0%; white-striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - Next week, the group's pig slaughter is expected to increase. The national inventory of pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and narrowed by 2.4% year-on-year; the number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year, with large-scale farms increasing by 1.8% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year. The second-round fattened pigs entering the market this month are also expected to be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the consumption side may not be able to absorb the increased supply, so the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3,158 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +12.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.38%; Spot: The egg price in Liaoning was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.20 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.04. On November 3, 2025, the national production link inventory was 1.15 days, an increase of 0.09 days from yesterday, an increase of 8.49%; the circulation link inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days, an increase of 4.03% [3] Market Analysis - In the early part of this month, there was a demand for restocking in supermarkets and e-commerce platforms during the "Double Eleven", and the approaching "Double Twelve" at the end of the month also boosted egg demand, but in the off-season of consumption, the e-commerce marketing activities had limited impact on demand, and the overall demand was still insufficient. Although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] Report's Core View - For the粕类 market, the overall supply is relatively loose as the US harvest is progressing smoothly and South American sowing is also going well. In China, the arrival of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and bean meal remains high. Attention should be paid to import conditions and changes in the cost of imported US soybeans after the China-US negotiations [2] - For the corn market, the inventory of deep - processing and feed enterprises is relatively low, with a weak willingness to build inventory and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. The selling progress of farmers and the inventory strength of traders should be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3026 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2491 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan/ton (+4.31%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Information**: As of October 31, the soybean sowing area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, in the 2025/26 crop year had reached 76.13% of the estimated area, an increase of 16.08 percentage points from the previous week [1] Market Analysis - The overall supply is loose, putting pressure on prices. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also abundant, and post - negotiation import conditions and cost changes need attention [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2141 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (+0.52%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2453 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.53%) [3] - **Spot Prices**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: As of last Saturday, the planting of the first - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 40.0% completed, compared with 33.2% last week, 36.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 39.6% [3] Market Analysis - Enterprises have low inventory, weak willingness to build inventory, and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is concentrated on the market, and the oversupply situation persists. Monitor farmers' selling progress and traders' inventory strength [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - **Price and Basis**: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is also neutral [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has rebounded. Despite potential further inventory increases, strong cost - side support due to raw material price firmness in overseas main producing areas may limit short - term downward adjustment. The domestic futures price is undervalued, but with insufficient supply - demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent price decline is mainly due to cost - side drag. The upstream raw material butadiene has a weak price trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. However, with resilient downstream demand and the current low absolute price, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles for the first time in the same period in history, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 5.3491 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3]. - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 495 yuan/ton (+ 60), the NR basis was 769.00 yuan/ton (- 43.00); whole latex was 14,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4]. - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), Thai rubber latex was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [4]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [5]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (- 300), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,285 yuan/ton (- 211) [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [5]. - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. With the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has increased. Although inventory may further increase, strong cost - side support may limit short - term downward adjustment. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The recent price decline is due to cost - side drag, but with resilient downstream demand and low absolute price, the downward space is limited [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market rebounded with shrinking volume, and the current market is in a phase of rapid rotation, increasing the difficulty of operation. The overall adjustment is not sufficient. In the short term, stock index futures can be used for hedging, and the market will continue to rise after the adjustment is completed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of Sino-foreign relations, US Treasury Secretary Besent said that if China continues to block rare earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that dialogue and cooperation are the correct ways, and threats and pressure do not help solve problems. China and the EU held export control dialogue consultations in Brussels, agreeing to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains. China decided to extend the visa-free policy for 45 countries including France and Germany until December 31, 2026, include Sweden in the visa-free list until December 31 next year, and resume group tours for Chinese citizens to Canada [1]. - In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes rebounded after hitting bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to close at 3976.52 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%. Most sector indexes rose, with media, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel industries leading the gains, while non-ferrous metals and household appliances industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, Federal Reserve Governor Milan called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, saying that the Fed's policy is too tight. The longer the policy remains restrictive, the greater the risk of economic downturn. Milan reiterated that the neutral policy interest rate is much lower than the current level and should be achieved through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.46% to 23834.72 points [2]. - In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IC declined. There was a divergence in trading volume and open interest. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and only the open interest of IM increased [2]. Strategy - The market rebounded with shrinking volume. The current market is in a rapid rotation phase, and the overall adjustment is insufficient. In the short term, stock index futures can be used for hedging, and the market will continue to rise after the adjustment is completed [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on November 3, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%, etc. [12]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: The table shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF, IH, IC decreased, and only the open interest of IM increased. Another table shows the basis of stock index futures for different contracts, and the basis of IF, IH, IC declined. There is also a table showing the inter - period spreads of stock index futures [12][15][38].