新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪有所消退，工业硅盘面冲高回落 工业硅： 2025-06-30，工业硅期货价格冲高回落，主力合约2509开于8075元/吨，最后收于8060元/吨，较前一日结算变化（230） 元/吨，变化（2.94）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓355751手，2025-06-30仓单总数为52473手，较前一日变化 -271手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅走高。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8400-8500（150）元/吨；421#硅在8600-9000 （100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7800-8000（200）元/吨，99硅价格在7800-8000（200）元/吨。 根据SMM市场交流，2025年6月份工业硅产量环比增加6.5%同比减少27.7%。2025年1-6月份工业硅累计产量同比下 降17.8%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。有机硅价格持稳，整体消费表现一般，下游维持 刚需采购。 策略 上周由于商品情绪较强及头部企业减产，工业硅盘面反弹较多，后续供应端有复产可能，消费表现仍偏弱，盘面 仍有回落可能 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-01 苹果客商按需拿货，红枣销区到货减少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7701元/吨，较前一日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.05%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+499，较前一日变动-4；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1899，较前一日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情维持稳淡运行，库内货源交易不快，部分急售现货商略有让价情绪。西部产区货源 剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等陆续上市，上市后价格稳定；山东产区 仍以发市场为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目 前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果 农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-30 工企盈利承压 ——中国盈利系列十一 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 27 日，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：需求与价格双弱，库存压力仍存。2025年 1-5月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 2.72 万亿元，同比下降 1.1%（较 1-4 月的+1.4%由正转负），主要受三重压力影 响：一是需求与价格双弱，PPI累计同比下跌 3.3%挤压毛利空间，叠加每百元营收成本 同比增加 0.24 元，进一步压缩利润；二是短期基数效应，投资收益等非经营性收益的 高基数下拉利润增速1.7个百分点；三是单月加速下滑，工业企业同比增速从4月的3% 大幅转负至 5 月的-9.1%，反映内需不足与"抢出口"效应消退的冲击。积极信号方面， 营业收入同比增长 2.7%，毛利润增长 1.1%，为后续盈利修复提供基础；装备制造 ...

liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 期货研究报告|纯苯专题 2025-06-29 纯苯期货及基础知识 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 华泰期货纯苯上市专题系列之一：纯苯期货及基础知识，首先是介绍纯苯的期货与期 权合约、期货交割品级、交割及仓单相关事项、限仓手数等内容。然后是介绍纯苯的 基础知识，介绍纯苯的物理性质、化学性质，以及重点介绍纯苯的生产工艺。纯苯属 危险化学品，易燃，蒸汽与空气可形成爆炸性混合物，遇明火、高热能引起燃烧爆 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-27 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为+0.14；持仓量PCR报1.06，环比变动为-0.22； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.54，环比变动为+0.06；持仓量PCR报0.90，环比变动为-0.13； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.68，环比变动为+0.12；持仓量PCR报0.97，环比变动为-0.29 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.55 ，环比变动为-0.01；持仓量PCR报1.11；环比变动为+0.05； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.47，环比变动为+0.04 ；持仓量PCR报0.86，环比变动为-0.22； 上证50股指期权成交额PCR报0.31，环比变动为-0.05；持仓量PCR报0.67，环比变动为+0.00； 沪深300股指期权成交额PCR报0.38 ，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.65，环比变动为-0.01； 中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报0.51，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.95，环比变动为+0.01。 期权 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-27 海外装置集中重启，EG震荡下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4293元/吨（较前一交易日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.69%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动-36元/吨，幅度-0.82%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 近期沙特、伊朗、马来等海外EG装置集中重启，EG价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-72美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为73元/吨（环比-22 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为50.6万吨（环比-3.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.7万吨，港口库存平稳；本周 华东主港计划到港总数6.2万吨，偏少，港口库存可能再度下降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供增需减趋势。供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓 单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，伊朗乙二醇停车装置陆续恢复中 ...

Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - China's independently developed CPU, Loongson 3C6000, was released, featuring self - designed instruction system and high - level security certifications [1]. - The financial regulatory authority and the central bank jointly issued a plan to build a high - quality inclusive finance system in the next five years, and the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025 [1]. - International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices recovered recently [2]. - The polyester operating rate decreased, and the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [3][4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: China launched the domestically developed Loongson 3C6000 processor, which uses the self - designed LoongArch instruction system, meets various computing needs, and has obtained a high - level security certification [1]. - **Service Industry**: The financial regulatory authority and the central bank released a plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries. The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025, and a detailed usage plan will be formulated [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - **Energy**: International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recovered recently [2]. - **Midstream** - **Chemical Industry**: The polyester operating rate decreased [3]. - **Downstream** - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly recently [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of different industries showed various trends. For example, the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry decreased from 56.96 last week to 53.47 this week [51]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries' price indices had different changes. For instance, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $64.9 per barrel on June 26, with a year - on - year decrease of 11.67% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]