基本面无太多意外 宏观因素令铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-11 冶炼及进口方面，，外电9月8日消息，周一智利央行公布数据显示，2025年8月该国铜出口额为41.6亿美元，同比下 降2.2%。分析人士指出，出口下滑主要受国际铜价调整及部分矿区生产不稳影响，但总体幅度有限。与此同时， 全球对清洁能源和电动汽车的需求依旧强劲，为智利铜出口提供长期支撑。 消费方面，据Mysteel调研显示，2025年8月，国内铜杆及铜管行业呈现分化态势。精铜杆领域，调研的61家企业（总 产能1584万吨）实际产量84.78万吨，环比增2.76%，产能利用率63.02%。增长主要源于铜价回调刺激集中补库订 单，加之行业政策调整与价差收缩促使部分需求从再生铜杆转移，带动生产积极性提升。与之相反，再生铜杆产 量环比降7.15%至17.26万吨，产能利用率仅24.81%，主因原料供应收紧及政策波动影响，尤其江西主产区环比减 产1.11万吨。铜管产量同步走弱，8月产量14.45万吨，环比降7.84%，产能利用率62.55%。其中大型企业（产能10 万吨以上）开工率降幅达8.65%，主机厂排产计划下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoint - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 9, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 944,700 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,150,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,591,200 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 163,100 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2,209,900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 36,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 131,600 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 291,600 contracts [1] - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [21] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.79, with a month - on - month change of +0.18; the position PCR was reported at 0.83, with a month - on - month change of +0.02. Similar data for other types of options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [2][30] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 18.47%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.84%. The VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 18.85%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.10%. Similar data for other types of options are also provided, including CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [3][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are affected by policies, and inventory is high. The "anti - involution" factor affects the market, and the short - term is macro - led, with policy progress to be monitored [3]. - Caustic soda spot is mainly stable. Supply from chlor - alkali enterprises rises, demand from major downstream in Shandong is stable with increasing delivery, and non - aluminum downstream demand is rising. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and production in Guangxi, and cost support remains [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the main PVC contract is 4847 yuan/ton (- 43), the East China basis is - 197 yuan/ton (+ 23), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+ 43) [1]. - Spot: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4650 yuan/ton (- 20), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is at 4750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream profit: Coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+ 0), calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+ 0), calcium carbide profit is - 64 yuan/ton (+ 0), PVC calcium carbide - based gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), PVC ethylene - based gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and PVC export profit is 13.1 dollars/ton (+ 0.1) [1]. - Inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+ 0.4), social inventory is 53.3 tons (+ 1.1), calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 77.65% (+ 2.41%), ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 72.59% (+ 3.93%), and overall PVC operation rate is 76.18% (+ 2.85%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2569 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 150 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 870 yuan/ton (+ 0), and 50% liquid caustic soda is at 1360 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1]. - Upstream profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 944.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 612.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 tons (+ 0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (+ 0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+ 1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+ 0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+ 1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. Newly - commissioned plants lead to abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation remains low, with rigid procurement. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment in the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and the export outlook in Q4 weakens [3]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, suppressing prices [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profit can still be compressed, and supply - demand remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Chlor - alkali enterprise operation rates rise slightly, reaching a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of major downstream alumina factories in Shandong is stable, with increasing deliveries. Non - aluminum downstream operation rises, with rigid procurement. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and production in Guangxi [3]. - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong rises slightly in September, and the liquid chlorine subsidy is expected to increase, providing cost support [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Neutral [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The valuation ceiling of the October contract continues to be revised downward, and it is recommended to mainly short - allocate the off - season October contract. The current valuation ceiling of the October contract may be around 1200 points [1][6]. - The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. In the near future, one can bet on the price increase expectation in November for the December contract. As the bottom of the freight rate becomes clearer, one can gradually go long to trade the price increase announcements by shipping companies for November and December [7]. - For the strategy, the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to short the October contract when the opportunity arises [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of September 9, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 78,742.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,654.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1527.40, 1256.70, 1434.50, 1608.00, 1268.70, and 1682.90 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies are provided. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 38th week is 1050/1760; HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of September and the first half of October is 935/1535. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam price for the second - half - September sailing is 1210/2020 [1][2]. - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on August 29 is 1315.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2189.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3073.00 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on September 1 is 1566.46 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 980.48 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of September 7, 2025, 182 container ships with a total capacity of 1.472 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. From 2025 - 2028, there is still significant supply - side pressure, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 35 ships [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: MSC and the Gemini Alliance announced blank sailings during the Chinese Golden Week. The monthly average capacity in September and October for the China - European base ports is 282,500 TEU and 278,200 TEU respectively. HPL announced two additional ships in October, with a total capacity of about 11,500 TEU [4][5]. 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events: An Israeli official said that Israel attacked senior Hamas political leaders in Doha, Qatar, escalating the conflict. Qatar condemned the attack, stating that it violated international law [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the container import demand in the US from September - December will decline by about 20% compared to the same period in 2024. During the fourth quarter, Western holidays lead to high shipping volumes, and shipping companies adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, if US - bound ships are diverted to European routes, it may put pressure on European freight rates [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] 2. Core View - Domestic apparent consumption of zinc maintains high - speed growth but cannot offset supply pressure, leading to continuous expansion of social inventory. Zinc prices show a weak and volatile trend, with the spot discount widening. There is a contradictory situation between domestic and overseas markets, with overseas inventory continuously decreasing and domestic inventory increasing. The domestic fundamentals are still weak, but overseas factors provide favorable price support [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $16.46 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,190 yuan per ton, with a change of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 65 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,160 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan per ton, with a change of 40 yuan per ton and a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 9, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,245 yuan per ton and closed at 22,125 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,465 lots, and the open interest was 108,199 lots. The highest price was 22,265 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,115 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,100 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Domestic consumption growth is high - speed but can't counter supply pressure, resulting in continuous inventory build - up. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with domestic TC slightly decreasing in September but still having cost - effectiveness, and import TC expected to rise. Domestic smelting profit exists, and supply pressure is large, with an 28% year - on - year increase in zinc ingot production in August. In the consumption peak season, inventory build - up is likely. Overseas, the macro - environment is positive, zinc supply contracts, consumption is stable, inventory is decreasing, the discount is narrowing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment of LPG has improved marginally, with the overseas market prices rebounding continuously. The spot prices are mixed, and the prices in the East China, South China, and North China markets have increased. The current LPG market has support at the bottom but limited upward driving force. The near - term fundamentals are okay, but the global oversupply pattern has not reversed, and the medium - to - long - term prospects remain weak. If OPEC continues to increase production in the future, it may bring new pressure to the LPG market [1] - The unilateral strategy is to be moderately bullish with oscillations. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected upside space is limited [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4580 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3940 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4620 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4560 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4580 - 4750 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4730 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 600 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and 580 US dollars/ton (up 4 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4690 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) and 4534 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 593 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton) and 573 US dollars/ton (up 4 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4636 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton) and 4479 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Moderately bullish with oscillations. Focus on the opportunity of going long on the PG main contract at low prices, but the expected space is limited [2] - Inter - delivery spread: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment has slightly recovered from the news of OPEC's production increase, and oil prices have stabilized. However, due to the unclear situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and US sanctions, oil prices may fluctuate repeatedly, providing limited guidance for the unilateral price direction of downstream fuel oil [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined. Supply is tightening due to sanctions on Russia and Iran and attacks on Russian refineries, and downstream bunker demand is fair. But Middle East fuel oil exports are increasing, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure. Domestic production has slightly rebounded but remains at a relatively low level. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share being replaced and having more surplus capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower valuation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.13% at 2,764 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.68% at 3,385 yuan/ton [1] - Although OPEC has lifted the second - layer production limit, the increase in quotas does not necessarily mean an increase in actual production, and the short - term pressure on the market is limited [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is affected by sanctions and attacks on refineries, while Middle East exports are expected to increase, and Singapore's inventory is high [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Domestic production in August was 1.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. There are no obvious signs of increased production in September, and the production trend this year is expected to be more stable than last year. The supply of arbitrage cargoes from the Western region is expected to decrease in September [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: From August to September, new production capacity in China was concentrated, and domestic supply pressure remained high. Downstream of pure benzene, the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain had large inventory pressure, which dragged down CPL开工; aniline开工 was weak, and there was still inventory pressure in MDI, the downstream of aniline; phenol开工 declined again, affected by bisphenol A; only styrene开工 was strong, but styrene maintenance was gradually implemented, which might drag down pure benzene demand. This week, port inventory began to peak and decline, and attention should be paid to downstream performance during the peak season [3]. - Styrene: During the peak season, downstream performance was mediocre, and the EB basis fluctuated within a range. Maintenance increased, and the开工 rate gradually reached its peak and declined. Port inventory was expected to peak, but the decline was limited. This week, port inventory also began to peak and decline, and attention should be paid to downstream提货 performance. Downstream of EB, the提货 volume during the peak season increased, the recovery of PS开工 was satisfactory, and ABS maintained a relatively low inventory load during the production cycle [3]. - Policy: The market began to pay attention to the impact of "anti - involution" on different industries. In the petrochemical industry, further details on the rectification of production facilities over 20 years old were still awaited [3]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - The report presents figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [9][12][18]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures include naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, and the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants [20][23]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The inventory in East China ports was 144,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), and the开工 rate was not mentioned in the summary of this part [1]. - Styrene: The inventory in East China ports was 176,500 tons (- 20,000 tons), the commercial inventory in East China was 87,000 tons (- 9,500 tons), and the开工 rate was 79.7% (+ 1.7%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit was 226 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate was 52.52% (- 5.82%) [2]. - PS: The production profit was - 24 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate was 61.00% (+ 1.10%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit was - 101 yuan/ton (+ 50 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate was 69.00% (- 1.80%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit was - 1690 yuan/ton (+ 85), and the开工 rate was 90.41% (+ 1.03%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit was - 272 yuan/ton (- 25), and the开工 rate was 75.00% (- 1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit was - 99 yuan/ton (+ 117), and the开工 rate was 67.96% (+ 0.41%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit was - 1274 yuan/ton (+ 9), and the开工 rate was 60.00% (- 3.20%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Go long on the spread between EB2510 and EB2511 when it is low [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread between EB2510 and BZ2603 when it is low in the short term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [7] - BR is rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in major production areas, raw material prices may rise, and cost - side support may weaken. Demand has an improvement expectation, and port inventory is expected to rise after downstream stocking ends [7] - For BR, supply is expected to decline, demand has an improvement expectation, and prices may have upward - repair momentum, but the impact of weak crude oil on upstream raw materials should be noted [7] Market News and Data Futures - RU主力合约 closed at 15,940 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR主力合约 at 12,735 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton; BR主力合约 at 11,690 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan/ton [1] Spot - Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 25 dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,785 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import Volume - In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, up 7.8% from the same period in 2024 [2] Tire Industry - Tire enterprises' production capacity utilization has returned to normal, and some enterprises' orders and production volume have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" has a positive impact on market sentiment, and market stocking is expected to increase [2] Export Volume of Cote d'Ivoire - In the first 8 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, up 14.4% from the same period in 2024. In August, exports were up 14.8% year - on - year and down 8.9% month - on - month [2] Global Natural Rubber Production and Consumption - In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, up 7.9% from the previous month; consumption was expected to decrease by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption decreased by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] Heavy - Truck Market - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 vehicles, down 1% month - on - month and up about 35% from the same period in 2024. From January to August, cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, up about 13% year - on - year [3] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, up 7% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, RU basis was - 890 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 940 yuan/ton (- 70), imported profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,594 yuan/ton (- 308.29), NR basis was 508 yuan/ton (+ 129); whole latex was 15,050 yuan/ton (- 350), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 250), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (- 100), STR20 was quoted at 1,865 dollars/ton (- 25), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (- 250), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (- 50) [4][5] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 61.10 baht/kg (- 1.00), Thai latex was 56.00 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.25), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 3.05 baht/kg (- 0.25) [5] 开工率 - All - steel tire开工率 was 60.74% (- 4.15%), and semi - steel tire开工率 was 66.92% (- 4.05%) [6] 库存 - Natural rubber social inventory was 1,264,898 tons (- 5,911), Qingdao Port natural rubber inventory was 592,275 tons (- 10,020), RU futures inventory was 162,230 tons (- 16,410), and NR futures inventory was 46,569 tons (+ 907) [6] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spread - On September 9, 2025, BR basis was 110 yuan/ton (+ 240), Sinopec's ex - factory price of butadiene was 9,350 yuan/ton (- 150), Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was quoted at 11,900 yuan/ton (- 200), Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 11,800 yuan/ton (- 150), Shandong private - owned BR was 11,650 yuan/ton (- 100), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,471 yuan/ton (- 275) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 76.16% (+ 0.31%) [6] 库存 - BR traders' inventory was 7,260 tons (+ 640), and BR enterprises' inventory was 24,650 tons (- 450) [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the pig market is cautiously bearish [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the holiday boost effect this year. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, but in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, the supply pressure makes the holiday boost weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market [2][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract yesterday was 13,230 yuan/ton, a change of - 75.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.56%. Spot: The price of external ternary live pigs in Henan was 13.51 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.76 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.26 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.11 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on September 9 was 118.35, down 0.16 points from the previous day. The national average wholesale price of pork was 19.86 yuan/kg, down 1.2% [1] Market Analysis - The current weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the holiday boost effect. The long - term focus should be on the reduction of the number of breeding sows. The pig production capacity has remained at around 40.5 million heads for about a year, and there is room for reduction in the future production capacity. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and in the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the reduction of production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2510 contract yesterday was 3060 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 58.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 1.93%. Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 3.27 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.45 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged. On September 9, the national production - link inventory was 0.48 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.79 days, unchanged [3][4] Market Analysis - High - temperature weather in mid - and early August led to frequent problems of egg storage and deterioration, and all links were cautious in purchasing. In late August, downstream stocking drove up egg prices slightly. School demand recovered this month, but tourism and catering demand declined significantly. Food enterprise processing demand was strong in mid - and early September, but ended near the Mid - Autumn Festival. Supermarkets and e - commerce still had some pre - holiday promotion demand, and overall demand gradually declined over time. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market on the spot market [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]