Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX for various types of stock index options on November 3, 2025 [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On November 3, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1.06 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.1622 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1.5502 million contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 55,800 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1.7054 million contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 35,700 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 stock index options was 156,800 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 243,100 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.90, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.86, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05. Similar data was provided for other types of options [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.37%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.11%. Similar data was provided for other types of options [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable with continuous inventory depletion and good performance on the consumption side, providing some support for the market. However, the upstream hedging willingness will increase at the price of 83,000 yuan/ton. An inventory inflection point is expected in December. If consumption weakens and the mining end resumes production, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 81,260 yuan/ton and closed at 82,280 yuan/ton, with a - 0.10% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 586,668 lots, and the open interest was 525,184 lots (compared to 510,440 lots the previous day). The basis was - 960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,290 lots, a decrease of 331 lots from the previous day [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,400 - 82,600 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 78,200 - 79,400 yuan/ton, both up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 975 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' operating rates are rising, but market transactions are dull after the price increase. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term contracts for next year, mainly on coefficients. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake ends above 60%. November's domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to be similar to October's [2]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased 6% month - on - month and 55% year - on - year. Other products like lithium hydroxide, cobalt sulfate, etc. also showed various growth or decline trends [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, focus on inventory and consumption inflection points, and opportunistically sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Cross - period: None [5]. - Cross - variety: None [5]. - Spot - futures: None [5]. - Options: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has received frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals were released, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%. The A-share market rebounded on November 3rd, and the thorium-based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2] - The Fed's pace of ending QT is still slow, and liquidity risks need to be monitored in November. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the selection of the Fed chair candidate will also affect future monetary policy [2] - For commodities, the overall strategy is to be neutral. Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: basic metals are strong, black sectors are affected by downstream demand, the energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and the focus on agriculture products is on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals set goals for national development, and the average GDP growth rate during this period is expected to be around 5%, which boosts market sentiment. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, which includes resolving the TikTok issue, suspending some US investigations and export control rules, and canceling the "fentanyl tariff" [2] - The manufacturing PMI in October showed a decline. The China-US export and import rush needs to be digested. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, down from the previous value of 51.2 [2][5] - The China-EU export control dialogue was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2][5] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. However, short - term capital tensions persist. The probability of a December rate cut is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues and may become the longest in history [2] Commodity Analysis - The basic metal market is strong, with aluminum prices likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices approaching the historical high [3][5] - The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted [3] - The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations [3] - The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November and December, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other products is worthy of attention [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations [3] - Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term fluctuations. A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Risk - Geopolitical risks may cause an upward risk in the energy sector; global economic downturn, Fed tightening, and overseas liquidity shocks may lead to a downward risk for risk assets [4] To - Do List - The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from the previous value [5] - The China - EU export control dialogue was held in Brussels to promote the stability of the industrial and supply chains [5] - The A - share market rebounded on November 3rd, with the GEM index rising 0.29%. The thorium - based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2][5] - Aluminum prices are likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices are approaching the historical high [3][5] - OPEC+ will increase production in November and December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3][5] - A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas, production cuts in Iceland and high power costs put pressure on overseas production. Consumption is expected to peak in November - December. With positive macro - factors, aluminum price declines are limited, and upward space may open if inventory reduction goes smoothly [6] - Alumina has a surplus supply - demand pattern. Although the spot price is low and market activity has increased due to winter storage demand, the price is hard to rise, and continuous restocking by electrolytic aluminum plants is unsustainable. There are few positive factors in the current fundamentals [7][8] Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On November 3, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, the Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on November 3, 2025, was 21,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, the warrant inventory was 64,269 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 554,575 tons [2] Alumina Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On November 3, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,010 yuan/ton, and 3,015 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the alumina main contract on November 3, 2025, was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,789 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Alloy - **Prices**: On November 3, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum and mechanical raw aluminum were 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton respectively, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4] - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Overseas production cuts, high power costs, and positive macro - factors support the aluminum price. Consumption is expected to improve in the peak season, and the aluminum price may rise if inventory reduction is smooth [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price is low, and market activity has increased due to winter storage. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and the price is hard to rise. Cost reduction from imported ore has not improved smelting losses [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2. Core View - The newly released November CP price is slightly higher than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic spot market. The rebound of the overseas propane - butane swap also supports the landed cost. Spot prices in the Northeast, North China, and East China regions increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also relatively limited short - term contradictions [1] 3. Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on November 3**: Shandong market: 4260 - 4370 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3630 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market: 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market: 4150 - 4290 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4450 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4070 - 4150 yuan/ton; South China market: 4350 - 4430 yuan/ton [1] - **December 2025 First - Half Import Prices**: In East China, the landed price of propane is 565 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton), and butane is 563 dollars/ton (up 23 dollars/ton). In South China, propane is 560 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton), and butane is 558 dollars/ton (up 23 dollars/ton). The RMB - converted prices also increased [1] - **Market Impact**: The higher - than - expected November CP price and the rebound of the overseas swap support the market. Northeast, North China, and East China prices rose, and the active trading in Shandong and planned refinery maintenance may reduce the supply of post - ether C4 and boost prices. However, the LPG supply - demand is loose with limited upward drivers [1] 4. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral, short - term waiting and observing [2] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches and southwest production decreases, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although production is decreasing, downstream demand may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the year [1][3][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 228,268 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,161, a decrease of 1092 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The price in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises was 6265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. As the dry season in Yunnan approaches, some local silicon furnaces have stopped production, and the operating rate is in a continuous downward trend. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will be in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20 [1]. Consumption Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11000 - 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale price adjustment of the leading manufacturer, downstream inventory replenishment increased, and market confidence was boosted. However, the problem of oversupply was still prominent, and the market was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and production in the southwest is decreasing, so the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 56320 yuan/ton and closed at 56065 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 143,844 lots, and the trading volume was 215,288 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of 1.16%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.49%). The weekly output of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest will decrease significantly, and the output is expected to decline [7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.31 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large inventory pressure. The production has started to decrease recently, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The downstream production plan may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Participants need to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the second half of November [1] - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, and the 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of flights [4][5] - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by 10% is conducive to promoting the recovery of Sino - US trade, driving the recovery of demand on the US route, and providing some support for European route prices [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Futures Prices - As of November 3, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 66,706.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 26,649.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1592.20, 1184.40, 1400.80, 1483.50, 1139.30, and 1851.70 respectively [5] II. Spot Prices - On October 31, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1344 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2647 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3438 dollars/FEU. On November 3, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1208.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1267.15 points [5] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity from China to European base ports was 286,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 45, 46, 47, 48, and 49 were 310,700, 273,000, 296,500, 270,000, and 299,900 TEU respectively. In December, the average weekly capacity was 322,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 were 336,400, 299,400, 335,600, and 320,400 TEU respectively. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November and 6 TBNs in December [3] - As of October 31, 2025, 218 container ships with a total capacity of 1.784 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 67 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 1.008 million TEU were delivered, and 11 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total capacity of 236,320 TEU were delivered [6] IV. Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content V. Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE: Neutral; PP: Cautiously short on rallies [3] - L01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05: Reverse calendar spread on rallies [3] - Cross -品种: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - PE: The pattern of weak supply and demand continues. The short - term polyethylene futures is dominated by the cost side and continues the volatile pattern. High supply, limited demand support, and weak cost - side support lead to weak and volatile PE [2]. - PP: The supply - demand contradiction still exists. The previous weak propane on the cost side and the lack of macro - level boost lead to a weak pattern. Supply - side pressure persists, demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6888元/吨（-11）, PP主力合约收盘价为6576元/吨（-14）, LL华北现货为6890元/吨（-10）, LL华东现货为7000元/吨（-20）, PP华东现货为6580元/吨（+0）, LL华北基差为2元/吨（+1）, LL华东基差为112元/吨（-9）, PP华东基差为4元/吨（+14） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为283.4元/吨（-54.1）, PP油制生产利润为 - 396.6元/吨（-54.1）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 152.1元/吨（-55.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为18.8元/吨（-51.6）, PP进口利润为 - 292.8元/吨（-11.4）, PP出口利润为 - 16.5美元/吨（+1.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is expected to increase, the demand follow - up is limited, the cost - side support is expected to weaken, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction exists. The supply - side pressure persists, the demand support is limited, and it continues the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE neutral; PP cautiously short on rallies [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: L01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies; PP01 - 05 reverse calendar spread on rallies [3]. - **Cross -品种**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material inventory days of smelters are declining, and with winter storage demand, the procurement demand for the mining end is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, squeezing smelting profits. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, and if TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and the overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated as expected, and the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro environment remains favorable [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $85.57/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,425 yuan/ton and closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 140,709 lots, and the open interest was 118,939 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,700 tons, with a change of 300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons, a decrease of 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are falling, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for mining end procurement is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, severely squeezing smelting comprehensive profits. High - cost areas are facing losses. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, with the expected year - on - year growth rate in November falling below 20%, and the daily average output decreasing month - on - month. If TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing, with the warehouse receipt risk not alleviated. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude is lower than expected. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains favorable [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]