1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged. With high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market after policy stabilization, the overall soybean meal price is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the sales progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid while traders are eager to store high - quality grain [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2758 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous day. The rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2341 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 332, down 8. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was M05 + 292, up 2. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was M05 + 302, up 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM05 + 219, up 6 [1] - Market Information: As of December 11, the planting rate of the 2025/26 - season soybeans in Argentina was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The current supply - demand situation has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation, along with stable policies and no sudden news, lead to a volatile soybean meal price. High US soybean import costs require attention to US soybean imports and South American weather [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2601 contract closed at 2228 yuan/ton yesterday, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C01 + 97, up 24. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was CS01 + 137, up 13 [3] - Market Information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 - season corn in Argentina was 59.2%, up from 44% a week ago, and the expected output may reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress in Argentina was 60.2%, up 15 percentage points week - on - week [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell makes the effective supply tight. As prices rise and holidays approach, sales may speed up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed demand is rigid while traders want to store high - quality grain [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of macro - expectation implementation and price fluctuations. The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions and wide - range price oscillations. The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply expectations and shows an oscillatory trend. The thermal coal market has weak spot prices and different views at ports [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3,233 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were average, with prices rising slightly following the futures. National building materials transactions reached 101,217 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' supply - demand fundamentals are improving, with decreasing production and low inventory pressure. Plate prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand has resilience. Attention should be paid to demand, exports, production cuts, and profit changes during the off - season [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 753 yuan, down 0.92%. Spot prices fell slightly with few transactions, and steel mills restocked as needed [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week's iron ore shipments increased by 6.6% week - on - week to 3,592.5 million tons, with Australia up 4.3% and Brazil up 32.7%. Supply - demand contradictions are intensifying, inventory is rising, and some port supplies have weak liquidity, supporting high prices. Some steel mills have started production cuts, and there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. If port supply liquidity recovers, prices may face pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2][3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated strongly, with coking coal prices rebounding significantly. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment for imported Mongolian coal [3]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is at a low level, and there is no obvious increase. Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. Steel mills' procurement is mainly for刚需, and the market's restocking willingness is weak. For coke, the second price cut has been implemented, profits are shrinking, supply has declined slightly, and demand is weak due to some steel mill overhauls and lack of winter - storage restocking [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [3][4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak, and snow has affected shipments. Some coal mines have stopped production. At ports, there are different views. Some traders think coal prices will stabilize due to increased daily consumption in cold weather, while others are selling at reduced prices due to high inventory and turnover requirements. Import coal has great pressure, and the market is inactive [4]. - **Demand and Logic**: Coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. Some coal mines will stop production after completing annual tasks, and supply improvement is difficult. In the long - term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [4][5]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to coal mine safety supervision, port inventory changes, daily consumption of power and chemical coal, and other unexpected events [6].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-16 期货价格上扬，市场观望为主 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪缓和，玻碱震荡调整 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡运行，盘面小幅上涨，成交活跃。现货方面，下游交投情绪一般，按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，供满矛盾依旧存在。玻璃刚需依旧缺乏起色，且伴随着淡 季到来，刚需仍有进一步回落预期，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，成本支撑凸显。现货方面，盘面反弹期现成交惨淡，以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。库存虽有去化，但 考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等 双硅：期货价格上扬，市场观望为主 市场分析 硅锰方面：昨日通过钢银公布的上周钢材消费数据来看，目前建材消费较好，虽处淡季，但去库依旧尚可，随着 黑色反弹，硅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry in China has formed a cross - regional circulation pattern of "production in the west and consumption in the east, production in the north and consumption in the south". The industry concentration is increasing, and the scale effect and risk - resistance ability of leading enterprises are enhanced. The cost structure varies by process, and marginal devices are key to observing cost support and supply changes [4]. - The marginal devices of PVC futures are defined from multiple aspects such as policy guidance, old - age devices, production scale, and raw material procurement. Small - scale, old - age, and high - cost marginal capacities with external raw material procurement are core variables affecting short - term supply elasticity and medium - long - term cost curves [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Industry Chain Supporting Analysis Overall Industry Situation - In 2025, the domestic PVC industry entered a period of concentrated production capacity release, with new production capacity of 2.2 million tons and an annual growth rate of 8%. The new capacity is mainly ethylene - based, increasing the proportion of ethylene - based PVC to 31% and diversifying the raw material routes. The industry has a resource - oriented layout, with the northwest and east regions having different advantages, forming a cross - regional supply - demand pattern [11]. - The industry concentration is high, and as of 2025, the top ten enterprises/groups accounted for 43% of the total production capacity, which strengthens the scale effect and market bargaining power of leading enterprises and affects market supply stability and price volatility [17]. - In terms of upstream raw materials, PVC production is mainly based on calcium carbide and liquid chlorine, and 93% of PVC production capacity is equipped with caustic soda plants, showing a high degree of integration in the chlor - alkali industry [19]. Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Supporting Analysis - In the calcium carbide - based PVC industry, enterprises with self - supplied calcium carbide account for 73% of the calcium carbide - based production capacity, mainly in the northwest and east regions, while those with externally - purchased calcium carbide account for about 27%, distributed in multiple regions, and their costs are affected by regional supply and transportation fees [20]. - The northwest region is a major surplus area of calcium carbide, while the north, central, and east regions are net purchasers. The cost of enterprises with externally - purchased calcium carbide is higher, and they are more sensitive to price fluctuations, making them key indicators for observing marginal cost changes and supply - demand adjustments [22]. - Many externally - purchased calcium carbide - based devices are in a long - term shutdown or low - load state. With the decline of chlor - alkali integration profit, some enterprises may consider reducing production [25]. - About 62% of PVC enterprises are equipped with self - supplied power plants, mainly in the northwest. In the calcium carbide - based process, enterprises with both self - supplied power plants and calcium carbide have a cost advantage, while those without either are at a disadvantage. The northwest has the lowest production cost due to coal - power integration [29]. - Most externally - purchased calcium carbide - based enterprises are operating at reduced loads, and the power spot market reform has a greater impact on them [30][32]. Ethylene - Based PVC Supporting Analysis - The raw material sources of ethylene - based PVC are diversified, including integrated ethylene, externally - purchased ethylene, and externally - purchased vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). The ethylene - based process is in line with national policies and has environmental advantages, and new PVC plants are mainly ethylene - based [33]. - Among domestic ethylene - based PVC production capacity, 31% of enterprises are self - sufficient in raw materials, while 69% rely on external procurement. Different procurement modes have different cost challenges and price sensitivities, and marginal devices are affected by external factors such as international ethylene prices and VCM import - export policies [34]. PVC Marginal Device Analysis Policy - based Identification of Marginal Capacities - Future marginal elimination capacities will mainly focus on calcium carbide - based devices with backward processes, small - scale devices, and old - age devices. Enterprises without self - supplied power plants and relying on external procurement may operate at low loads or shut down [40][41]. Capacity - Scale and Production - Time Analysis - In 2025, the PVC industry showed a significant trend of large - scale devices. Devices with a single - set capacity of more than 300,000 tons/year accounted for 60% of the total capacity, while those less than 200,000 tons/year accounted for 20%. Small - scale devices face operational pressure and a trend of being phased out [42]. - About 12% of the existing PVC production capacity was put into operation before 2005. After excluding leading enterprises' and long - term shutdown capacities, about 8% is from relatively old and small - scale devices. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy depends on subsequent implementation details [46]. Ethylene - Based Marginal Devices - Among the old - age devices, 3.6% are ethylene - based, with a relatively low risk of elimination. However, high - cost enterprises relying on external raw materials, such as Suzhou Huasu and Cangzhou Julong, are in a long - term shutdown state. Cangzhou Julong is promoting a port transformation project to reduce costs and enhance supply chain stability [50]. Calcium Carbide - Based Marginal Devices - Among the old - age devices, 8.8% are calcium carbide - based, which are more likely to be eliminated. Some "small - scale and externally - purchased calcium carbide" devices have already exited. Among the remaining 1.69 million tons of old - age calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity less than 200,000 tons, 720,000 tons are externally - purchased calcium carbide devices, which are currently operating at low loads and their operating conditions will affect industry supply elasticity and cost support [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) data for various stock index options on December 14, 2025. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On December 14, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 719,600 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 955,400 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,066,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 65,900 contracts; GEM ETF options was 2,261,500 contracts; Shanghai - 50 stock index options was 34,600 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 109,300 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 286,600 contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type is also provided in Table 1, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 873,200 contracts (418,900 call and 454,300 put) [19]. Option PCR - The PCR data (including turnover PCR and open - interest PCR) and their环比 changes for different stock index options are presented. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 0.79 with a环比 change of - 0.03, and the open - interest PCR was 1.00 with a环比 change of + 0.07 [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX data and their环比 changes for different stock index options are given. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 13.82% with a环比 change of - 0.54% [3][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on December 12, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, and also shows the changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio for different sectors, along with their changes from the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate On December 12, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 746.525 billion yuan, a +20.12% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1390.143 billion yuan, a +5.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 53.59% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 464.695 billion yuan, a +27.39% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 725.148 billion yuan, a - 3.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 65.61% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) The basic metal plate's trading volume was 697.053 billion yuan, a +30.47% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 702.402 billion yuan, a +3.16% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.81%. The precious metal plate's trading volume was 966.907 billion yuan, a +13.93% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 511.462 billion yuan, a +4.99% change; the trading - holding ratio was 275.60% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 470.863 billion yuan, a - 4.63% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 455.676 billion yuan, a - 0.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.43% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 324.239 billion yuan, a - 9.32% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 595.909 billion yuan, a - 0.81% change; the trading - holding ratio was 50.99% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 228.045 billion yuan, a - 11.57% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 326.643 billion yuan, a - 2.08% change; the trading - holding ratio was 67.46% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report presents an overview of the stock index options market on December 11, 2025, including option trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index) for various stock index options [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On December 11, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF option (Shanghai market) had 112.35 million contracts; CSI 500ETF option (Shanghai market) had 129.65 million contracts; Shenzhen 100ETF option had 8.14 million contracts; ChiNext ETF option had 215.97 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index option had 11.79 million contracts; and CSI 1000 option had 24.00 million contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes for each option type. For example, the total trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF option (Shanghai market) was 95.54 million contracts, with 46.74 million call contracts and 48.81 million put contracts [19]. II. Option PCR - The report provides the turnover PCR and position PCR for different stock index options, along with their环比 changes. For instance, the turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF option (Shanghai market) was 0.92, with a环比 change of - 0.08, and the position PCR was 1.01, with a环比 change of - 0.09 [2][33]. III. Option VIX - The VIX values and their环比 changes for different stock index options are presented. For example, the VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF option (Shanghai market) was 16.04%, with a环比 change of + 0.36% [3][47].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 社会库存回落现货贴水修复 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21890元/吨，较上一交易日变化120元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-60元/吨， 较上一交易日变化30元/吨；中原A00铝价21820元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化70元/吨至-130元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21780元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化25元/吨至-165元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-11日沪铝主力合约开于21990元/吨，收于21970元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，最 高价达22110元/吨，最低价达到21865元/吨。全天交易日成交189881手，全天交易日持仓294576手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.4万吨，较上一期变化-1.1万吨，仓单库存69410 吨，较上一交易日变化823吨，LME铝库存518750吨，较上一交易日变化-2050吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2790元/吨，山东价格录得2725元/吨，河南价格录得 2815元/吨 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-12 社会库存稳中回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为158.52美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化40元/吨至23110元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水65元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至23000元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-11沪锌主力合约开于23050元/吨，收于22995元/吨，较前一交易日-70元/吨，全天交易日成交93062 手，全天交易日持仓88499手，日内价格最高点达到23095元/吨，最低点达到22920元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-11，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.82万吨，较上期变化-0.78万吨。截止2025-12-11，LME 锌库存为60350吨，较上一交易日变化550吨。 市场分析 锌锭社会库存持续稳重回落，呈现出季节性去库走势，下游开工率整体继续保持平稳，广东地区现货贴水大幅度 修复，下游接货偏谨慎，贸易商积极出货，近月合约价差收至平水，更多缘于现货市场供应减少。矿 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-12 美联储降息25bp, 国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同 ...