Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is mainly in a narrow - range oscillation. The overall operating rate has increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down units and fewer planned shutdowns. New production capacity is continuously being released, leading to a significant increase in supply. There is pressure on the supply side as upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, while the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures related to the plastic futures main contract trend and the LL East China - main contract basis are presented, as well as those for the polypropylene futures main contract trend and the PP East China - main contract basis [9][12] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 202.8 yuan/ton (- 112.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 377.2 yuan/ton (- 112.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 76.1 yuan/ton (- 78.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Spread - Figures show the price differences between HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn East China [29][36][37] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 260.1 yuan/ton (- 110.1), PP import profit is - 600.1 yuan/ton (- 50.1), and PP export profit is 32.4 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (- 0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (- 0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is transferred downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory, indicating certain pressure on the supply side [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

2、 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库0.43百万桶至209.84百万桶，环比去库0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 0.41百万桶至88.22百万桶，环比去库0.47%；柴油商业库存去库2.67百万桶至102.52百万桶，环比去库2.54%；总成 品油商业库存去库3.08百万桶至190.73百万桶，环比去库1.59%。 (来源：Bloomberg） 3、\t俄罗斯卫星网：俄罗斯总统普京表示，有可能就确保乌克兰的安全保障达成共识。(来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-09-03 西方加大对伊朗制裁，但对出口影响有限 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.58美元，收于每桶65.59美元，涨幅为2.47%；11月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨99美分，收于每桶69.14美元，涨幅为1.45%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.14%，报495元/ 桶。 4、\t俄罗斯总统助理：俄罗斯与美国外交部将举行磋商。（来源：Bloomberg） 5、\t美国发布针对与伊朗有关实体的制裁通知。美国财长贝森特：通过针对伊朗的石油收入来源，财政部将进一 步削弱伊朗对美国及其盟友发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market currently has increasing inventory and ample supply, and the price has declined due to lower import costs. Future price trends depend on Sino - US trade policy negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase with the approaching new grain listing, while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the yield of new - season corn [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In June, the US used 1.045 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up 1.95% from May. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains at 178.2 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2200 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2505 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: In Ukraine, due to drought, the corn yield in the southern part of Poltava decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the northern part had good growth. The far - month FOB price of new - crop corn in the Black Sea was about 214 US dollars/ton, up 8% year - on - year. Australia is expected to produce 33.8 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, up 10.5% from the previous forecast [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - Supply: Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing and there is room for further growth due to high future soybean arrivals [2] - Price: The price has declined due to lower import costs caused by positive Sino - US negotiation expectations and weaker Brazilian premiums [2] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Supply: New grain in North China and Northeast China is about to be listed, increasing the supply. Traders have limited remaining grain [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises have low inventory and demand, and wheat substitution is common [4] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is neutral [3] - The strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical and macro - situation remains unclear, especially the limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks. Crude oil is in a range - bound oscillation with no clear direction, and the FU and LU fuel oil futures also show narrow - range fluctuations [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a stage of market adjustment and re - balancing, with both long and short factors intertwined and no obvious contradictions [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with domestic production remaining low. The Western arbitrage supply has tightened again. In the short term, the market structure is relatively stable but lacks strong driving forces. In the medium - term, it still faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, with upward resistance despite some support at the lower end of the valuation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.53% at 2,847 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.54% at 3,559 yuan/ton [1]. - The short - term situation of crude oil is uncertain. The outcome of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and changes in US sanctions policies need to be monitored. Russia's fuel oil production and exports may be affected by sanctions and refinery shutdowns caused by drone attacks in Ukraine [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is suppressed by the rising risk appetite driven by the strong stock market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.20% month - on - month decrease and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.02%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [9]. - The US dollar index is 98.32, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 (+0.64%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1402, with a day - on - day increase of 0.012 (+0.17%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.49%); DR007 is 1.44, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.55%); R007 is 1.67, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.26 (-13.67%); The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.55, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.36%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (+0.36%) [9]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation funds trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between the state - owned development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [12][13][21]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [24][30]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [27][32][33]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [35][38][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [47][53]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55][58]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As financial and macro - economic data weaken, steel consumption in August shows off - season characteristics, with high steel production, poor inventory performance compared to seasonality, and steel inventory accumulating for five consecutive weeks. The export has also weakened due to previous price increases, impacting the black industry. In September, as the phased production - restriction measures during the military parade end and the macro - policy is expected to be in a vacuum period, the pricing of black commodity prices will depend on the performance of peak - season consumption. The overall financial and macro - economic situation is not optimistic, and future focus should be on domestic steel consumption, exports, and macro - policies [1][7][86][110]. - M1 and M2 continue to rise, and enhancing currency effectiveness is crucial. In July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of June; M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than at the end of June. The growth rate gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 3.2%, a 0.5% decrease from June [2][16][106]. - Real estate policies continue to be tightened, but real estate data is still at the bottom. In July, real estate development investment, completion, new construction, construction, and sales area all declined year - on - year [2][20][106]. - The economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, but infrastructure investment has weakened significantly. In July, the monthly infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth since December 2021, which will have a negative impact on domestic steel consumption [2][30][106]. - The manufacturing industry shows a mixed performance, and manufacturing investment is weakening. From January to August, China's manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line only in February and March, and has been below it for five consecutive months since April. In July, the overall growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 0.3%, the lowest since July 2020 [3][35][107]. - Domestic demand increases slightly, and raw material demand remains strong. From January to July 2025, domestic crude steel production was 64,890 million tons, a 2.8% year - on - year increase, and consumption was 57,126 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. Pig iron production was 52,815 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase [3][50][107]. - The steel export structure shows differentiation, but exports still maintain significant growth. From January to July 2025, domestic steel exports were 6,798 million tons, an increase of 675 million tons compared to last year. Steel billet exports were 747.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 565.3 million tons [5][54][108]. - Overseas consumption continues to expand, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increases. From January to July 2025, overseas crude steel production was 49,063 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease, and consumption was 56,542 million tons, a 2.30% year - on - year increase. In July, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish [6][67][109]. - The inventory of finished steel products continues to accumulate, and the support from raw materials weakens. Currently, the molten iron production remains high, iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and iron element inventory is at a medium - low level. The coking coal supply is expected to improve in the future [7][92][110]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Steel Consumption Increases Slightly, and Macro - economic Indicators Weaken - **M1 and M2 Continue to Rise, and Currency Effectiveness is Key**: In July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points higher than at the end of June; M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than at the end of June. The growth rate gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 3.2%, a 0.5% decrease from June. New RMB loans were - 50 billion, 310 billion less year - on - year, with a growth rate of 6.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of June. New social financing was 1.16 trillion, 389.3 billion more year - on - year, with a growth rate of 9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than at the end of June [2][16][106]. - **Real Estate Policies are Tightened, and Real Estate Data is at the Bottom**: Since the second half of 2021, the real estate industry has been in deep adjustment. From January to July 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, and in July, all real estate economic data showed a downward trend [19][20][106]. - **The Economy was Resilient in the First Half of the Year, but Infrastructure Investment Weakens Significantly**: After a series of macro - policies were introduced last September, the domestic economy maintained strong resilience. In the first half of this year, the GDP growth rate was 5.3%. In July, the monthly infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% year - on - year, the first negative growth since December 2021 [30][31][106]. - **The Manufacturing Industry Shows a Mixed Performance, and Manufacturing Investment is Weakening**: From January to July, the second - industry electricity consumption showed some resilience. From January to August, China's manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line only in February and March, and has been below it for five consecutive months since April. In July, the overall growth rate of manufacturing investment was - 0.3%, the lowest since July 2020 [35][47][107]. - **Domestic Demand Increases Slightly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong**: From January to July 2025, domestic crude steel production was 64,890 million tons, a 2.8% year - on - year increase, and consumption was 57,126 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. Pig iron production was 52,815 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, indicating strong raw material demand [50][51][107]. 3.2 Steel Export Structure Shows Differentiation, but Exports Still Maintain Significant Growth - **Anti - dumping Investigations Disturb, and Export Structure Shows Differentiation**: In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, a new high since 2017. From January to July 2025, domestic steel exports were 6,798 million tons, an increase of 675 million tons compared to last year. Although some varieties' exports decreased due to anti - dumping investigations, overall exports are still strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - dumping investigations and domestic prices on exports [54][55][57]. - **Steel Billet Exports Increase Continuously, Significantly Easing Domestic Pressure**: Since 2021, steel billet exports have increased significantly. From January to July 2025, domestic steel billet exports were 747.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 565.3 million tons, mainly exported to Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe [62][63][65]. 3.3 Overseas Consumption Continues to Expand, and the Expectation of the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Increases - **Overseas Consumption Expands, and India Continues to Grow Significantly**: From January to July 2025, overseas crude steel production was 49,063 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease, and consumption was 56,542 million tons, a 2.30% year - on - year increase. India's production increased by 14%. From January to July, the net export of crude steel equivalent was 7,479 million tons, a 24.2% year - on - year increase [67][68][70]. - **Overseas Total Iron Production Decreases Slightly, and India Contributes Most of the Increment**: From January to July 2025, overseas total iron production was 30,991 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease. India's production increased by 8.7%. From January to July, overseas scrap steel consumption was 22,978 million tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with an increasing trend from June to July [73][74][77]. - **The Fed's Meeting Turns Dovish, and Monetary Liquidity is "Easy to Loosen and Hard to Tighten"**: In July, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting turned dovish, clearing the way for long - term inflation [79][84][85]. 3.4 The Inventory of Finished Steel Products Continues to Accumulate, and the Support from Raw Materials Weakens - **The Consumption of Finished Steel Products Weakens Month - on - Month, and Steel Inventory Continues to Accumulate**: From January to July, domestic steel consumption maintained resilience, and exports were strong, with low inventory. In August, due to weakening financial and macro - economic data, steel consumption showed off - season characteristics, with high production, poor inventory performance, and five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation. The export also weakened. In September, the pricing of black commodity prices will depend on peak - season consumption [86][87][90]. - **Iron Ore Supply Continues to Recover, and Future Expectations Weaken**: In August, iron ore shipments rebounded month - on - month, and the arrival of iron ore decreased slightly. The molten iron production remained high, and the iron ore inventory accumulation was lower than expected, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance. With weakening domestic demand and export expectations, the molten iron production may decrease, breaking the tight balance [92][93][110]. - **Coking Coal Maintains a Tight Balance, and Supply Will Recover**: Since mid - June, coking coal and carbon element inventories have been continuously depleted. In August, the fundamentals of coking coal continued to improve, but the improvement rate slowed down. The coking coal production recovered slowly due to short - term production - restriction during the military parade, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered. The coking coal supply is expected to improve in the future [94][97][110]. 3.5 Conclusion - The situation is similar to the previous core viewpoints, emphasizing the need to pay attention to domestic steel consumption, exports, and macro - policies in the context of current economic situations such as weakening infrastructure investment, mixed manufacturing performance, and changes in steel exports and raw material supply [106][107][110]. 3.6 Strategy - With the continuous accumulation of contradictions in finished steel products and the weakening support from raw materials, attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policies [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the Fed's rate - cut expectations rise, attention should be paid to precious metals [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and Powell's dovish stance paves the way for a September rate cut, making the overseas inflation rise path smoother [2] - For commodities, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. China's July economic data showed mixed performance: the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were weak, and investment data faced pressure. In August, the official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated expansion. A - shares showed a volatile and differentiated trend on September 1. In the US, the August PMI continued to improve, and the "big beautiful" bill may support subsequent consumption. The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal [1] - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, which cleared the way for a September rate cut. In the eurozone, the August manufacturing PMI reached a 38 - month high, and factory production growth was strong [2] Commodity Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors in China are most sensitive to the supply - side. Precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" in the non - ferrous, energy, and chemical sectors is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals and attention to Sino - US negotiations. On September 1, the precious metals market performed well, with silver reaching its highest level since 2011 and gold rising for the fifth consecutive day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, industrial products should be bought on dips [4] Important News - On the afternoon of September 1, the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting was held in Tianjin. The overall stock market showed that the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated sideways, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Black - series futures fell, and the eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.7. Spot gold reached $3480 per ounce [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, supporting prices, but downstream profits are under pressure and may struggle to keep up [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supported by supply, demand, and inventory, propylene spot prices continue to be strong, but the futures market shows a volatile trend. The supply side is affected by PDH device maintenance, and the demand side has a mixed situation of downstream start - up rates. The cost side sees the crude oil price remaining volatile [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures are the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The TC price on the supply side is continuously declining, and there are more maintenance activities in smelters. On the consumption side, the inventory clearance of dealers is slow, the purchasing willingness is low, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has accumulated. With the upcoming implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles and the Middle East tariff policy in September, the impact on consumption is uncertain. Therefore, the lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.07/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price remained unchanged at 16,750 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On September 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,854 lots, a decrease of 3,999 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,017 lots, an increase of 1,835 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 16,880 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 16,780 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,875 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted prices at par with the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 110 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted prices at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and some holders quoted prices at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, holders quoted prices at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. The lead price was consolidating, and downstream buyers made purchases on dips, resulting in relatively better spot transactions in some regions [2] Inventory - On September 1, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 67,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of September 1, the LME lead inventory was 259,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Given the current situation of weak supply and demand in the lead market and the uncertainty of consumption impact, the lead price is expected to remain volatile in the range of 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

国债期货日报 | 2025-09-02 PMI稳中向好，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-09-01，央 ...