Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Report Core Views - The steel market's trading volume has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates are not improving enough. The arrival of the off - season for building materials demand should be monitored [1]. - Iron ore prices have slightly declined due to a drop in hot metal production. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and the release of inventory in the future may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - A new round of price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun, and their prices are fluctuating downward. The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, and the price of coking coal is still under pressure [4][5]. - The price of thermal coal at ports and in production areas has been continuously falling. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures closed at 3238 yuan/ton. The production, inventory, and demand of the five major steel products have all decreased. The spot trading of steel was weak, and prices in mainstream areas followed the decline of the futures market [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with both consumption and production declining, and inventory pressure easing. The fundamentals of plates are not improving enough, and high inventory is suppressing prices, requiring appropriate production cuts. The impact of off - season demand on the fundamentals should be monitored [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were weak. The trading volume at major ports was 99.1 million tons, a 38.60% increase from the previous period. The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 229.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.10 million tons from the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments increased slightly this period, and the average daily hot metal production continued to decline. The supply - demand contradiction is still accumulating, and inventory is rising. If external factors are removed, inventory release may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of iron ore negotiations [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated downward. Some steel mills initiated a new round of price cuts for coke, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The price of coking coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coal also decreased [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The bearish sentiment for coke is strong, the support for raw material demand is weak, and the demand for coke is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the price of raw coal and changes in hot metal production. The sentiment for coking coal is still weak, downstream demand is limited, and coal prices are still under pressure [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is an oscillation, with no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of coal in the main production areas continued to decline, and there was a wait - and - see sentiment in the market. The supply in the production areas was slightly tightened due to the maintenance of some coal mines. The price at ports continued to fall, demand was weak, and trading was cold. The price of imported coal also fell rapidly and maintained a cost - performance advantage [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Pessimistic sentiment has spread in the market recently, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the long - term, the supply remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [6]. - **Strategy**: There is no strategy provided for thermal coal [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation gap, a narrowing Sino-US interest rate gap favorable to the RMB, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. It is predicted that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.05 - 7.10. If the US core data is significantly weaker than expected or China's external demand continues to improve, the probability of a short-term upward movement of the RMB will increase, but the probability of breaking through 7.0 in the short term is relatively small [32][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity, Price, and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the new exchange USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and Sino-US interest rate differentials in different time periods [7]. Policy Observation - The adjustment direction of the counter-cyclical factor has returned to above 0% from negative. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Interest Rate Cuts and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 908.5 billion on December 3rd (remaining at a high level), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (-123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non-US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [16]. Macro - Federal Reserve Voting Seats - Stephen Milan holds a temporary seat, and the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman will be determined before Christmas on December 25th. Raphael Bostic will retire early in February 2026, and the candidate is yet to be determined. The Supreme Court will rule in January 2026 on whether Trump has the right to dismiss Lisa Cook. The Federal Reserve passed the December interest rate decision with a 9:3 vote, cutting the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 3.50% - 3.75% [18]. Macro - Federal Reserve Chairman Candidates - The core competition is between Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett. Currently, market probabilities show that Hassett is leading, but Trump highly trusts Raphael Bostic. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it is expected to trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Federal Reserve losing its independence," which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [20]. Core Charts - US Economy - The government has reopened, and attention should be paid to the impact on the economy during the shutdown period. In November, the ADP employment data exceeded expectations, inflation data is awaited, and the economic outlook has been revised upwards. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in October increased slightly [22]. Economy - US November PMI - In the manufacturing sector, new orders, employment, and delivery made negative contributions, while prices and output made positive contributions. In the service sector, prices made a positive contribution, while employment and imports made negative contributions [23]. Macro - Chinese Economy - There is a structural differentiation in the economy. Exports and imports rebounded in November. The reduction in working days in October dragged down the data for that month, and there is an expected slight rebound in November. The December Politburo meeting shows a swing in policy expectations [26]. Macro - November Export Rebound - The characteristics of re - exports continue. Exports to the US decreased by 28.58% (previous value: -25.17%), while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa were 8.17%, 7.97%, and 5.4% respectively (previous values: 10.96%, 14.3%, and 23.3% respectively). Most sub - items declined, but rare earths, electromechanical products, and automobiles still showed resilience. The market has a consistent optimistic expectation for exports, and attention should be paid to the impact risk if there is an unexpected downward revision [28]. 12 - month Politburo's Task Deployment for 2026 - There are changes in the task deployment for 2026 compared to 2025, including adjustments in the focus on domestic demand, science and technology/industry, reform, opening - up, risk prevention, and other aspects [30]. Comparison of Politburo Meetings - There are differences in the judgment of the economic situation, overall economic work requirements, macro - policy tones, consumption and investment, risk prevention focuses, and other aspects between the July 30, 2025 Politburo meeting and the December 8, 2025 Politburo meeting [31]. Macro - 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there are important time points such as the determination of the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, OPEC and FOMC meetings, the release of the government work report, the National People's Congress, the expiration of Powell's term, and the US mid - term elections, which will have an impact on the economy and policies [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" in 2025 to "improving quality and efficiency" in 2026, with a shift from quantity requirements to quality requirements. As the economic cycle gradually improves, the marginal intensity of macro policies weakens [2]. - Fiscal policy in 2026 lacks incremental fiscal spending and emphasizes "strict financial discipline." It is expected to shift from "expansion" to "stability" [2][8]. - The increment of monetary easing is limited, and the focus shifts to credit expansion. The policy center shifts from focusing on the matching between the real economy and finance to promoting the growth of the real economy, with an emphasis on key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3][9]. - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expect the implementation of the "income doubling plan"), innovation (the "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry and "fintech" may be highlights), and risk prevention (the order of risk prevention is postponed, and local government debt will be resolved "actively and orderly") [3][9]. Summary by Catalog Strategy Summary - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 10th to 11th. After a "very extraordinary" year in 2025, the macro policy remained stable, and the economy began to show characteristics of "new and high-quality development" [1][7]. - With the macro environment shifting from "strategic defense" to "strategic stalemate," the demand for "putting ourselves first" in the domestic economy has increased. The relationship between the effective market and the effective government has shifted from "letting go and controlling well" in 2024 to "letting go and managing well," reflecting a transformation towards a service-oriented government [7]. - In 2026, the instability of external demand will increase, and the domestic economy should "put itself first" to expand domestic demand [8]. Core Views - The supply side focuses on "anti-involution," and the demand side focuses on the "income increase plan." The goals, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and key tasks in 2026 are as described above [2][3]. First Paragraph - The description of the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 remains the same as in 2024 [10][11][12]. Review - Compared with the Politburo meeting on the 8th and the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year, the main changes include the description of the nature of the year, the economic situation, and the development of productivity [14][15][16]. Understanding - The epistemological paragraph of the 2025 economic work conference regarding "economic work" is advanced compared to 2024, highlighting the guiding concept of economic work - "putting ourselves first." The strategic autonomy has been enhanced, and the relationship between the effective market and the effective government has changed [19][20][21]. Current Situation - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference added the description of "old problems and new challenges" when describing economic development problems. It believes that these are problems in development and transformation and can be solved through efforts. The description of the external environment has changed, and the focus on the domestic environment has shifted to "strong supply and weak demand" [23][24][26]. Requirements - The description of the requirements for economic work in 2026 is basically consistent with that of the Politburo meeting. The "steady progress while maintaining stability" work keynote is postponed, and the external demand faces increased instability in 2026. Macro policies remain "active and effective," with enhanced policy "foresight, pertinence, and synergy" and an adjustment in the relationship between supply and demand policies [28][30][31]. Goals - In 2026, the four goals of economic work were removed, and the focus shifted from "promoting stability through progress" to "improving quality and efficiency." Fiscal policy shifts from "expansion" to "stability," and monetary policy focuses on credit expansion. Policy coordination focuses on considering "stock" and "increment" together [44][45][46]. Tasks - The key tasks in 2026 include domestic demand (expanding the "income increase plan" to urban and rural residents, optimizing the implementation of "two new" and "two important" projects, and high-quality urban renewal), innovation (talent as the primary task, "capacity expansion and quality improvement" of the service industry, and fintech services), reform ("anti-involution" in the reform part, "reduction and quality improvement" of small and medium-sized financial institutions), and risk prevention (postponing the order of risk prevention, stabilizing the real estate market, and actively resolving local government debt risks) [49][60][61]. Methods - The goal has changed from "achieving an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment, and reasonable price recovery" in 2025 to "solving existing difficult problems," which is more of an economic structure issue that needs to be addressed through reform [66][67][68]. Actions - The shift from "emphasizing action" in 2024 to "correct performance concept" and "acting according to laws" in 2025 implies that the economy in 2026 will show structural characteristics [69][70][71]. New Year Transition - Arrangements are made for the New Year transition, emphasizing the resolution of social contradictions in the context of pressure and difficulties [72][73][74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on December 10, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 10, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 575,400 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 804,600 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 923,900 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 59,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2,082,900 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 35,500 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 97,400 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 240,600 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of different index ETF options on the same day [20] Option PCR - The PCR data of various options on December 10, 2025, are presented, including the turnover PCR and position PCR and their环比 changes. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 0.85, with a 环比 change of +0.15; the position PCR was 0.98, with a 环比 change of -0.03 [2][34] Option VIX - The VIX data of various options on December 10, 2025, are presented, along with their 环比 changes. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 14.25%, with a 环比 change of +0.24% [3][49]

宏观日报 | 2025-12-11 上游价格持续分化，关注年末下游促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家统计局发布数据，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业 生产者出厂价格同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 服务行业：1）北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，宣布降息25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场"鹰派降息"预期。"点阵图"显示，决策者预计2026 年只会再降息一次，2027年再降一次，然后利率将回到3%的长期水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前利率水平处 于良好位置，可应对经济前景变化，但他未对近期是否会再次降息提供指引。鲍威尔指出："值得注意的是，自去 年9月以来，我们已累计降息175个基点，其中自今年9月以来就下调了75个基点。目前，联邦基金利率已位于中性 水平的一个大致区间，我们也处于有利位置，可以等待观察经济的进一步发展"。2）全国零售业创新发展大会12 月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国 内大循 ...

MPOB报告发布，棕榈油累库承压 油脂观点 市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-12-11 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8542.00元/吨，环比变化-106元，幅度-1.23%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9443.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8680.00元/吨，环比变化+100.00元，幅度+1.17%，现货基差P05+138.00，环比 变化+206.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8410.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元/吨，幅度+0.72%，现货基差 Y05+410.00，环比变化+44.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9690.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.52%，现 货基差OI05+247.00，环比变化+0.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：加拿大菜籽(1月船期)C&F价格516美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨；加拿大菜籽(3月 船期)C&F价格525美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调4美元/吨。阿根廷豆油(1月船期)C&F价 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - The decline in electrolytic aluminum prices is limited, with weak spot market trading and slight repair of spot discounts. Social inventory is basically stable with a slight decline. Consumption has rigidity in the off - season, and the low inventory level is not a negative factor for prices. There is optimism about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the economic conference and the expected inventory reduction before the Spring Festival. Overseas liquidity risks need to be vigilant. [6] - GIC is allowed to resume operations. Once a $125 million payment is transferred to the treasury, it can start operating the former Axis mine, indicating the government's support for local bauxite mining and reducing policy uncertainty. The alumina fundamentals lack positive factors, with no significant reduction in domestic supply, continuous increase in social inventory, and weak procurement willingness of electrolytic aluminum plants. The near - month contract is at a large discount to the far - month contract. The cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. [6][7] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum Spot - On December 10, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,770 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,660 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,670 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,805 yuan/ton, closed at 21,935 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 22,025 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 21,735 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 159,863 lots, and the position was 185,806 lots. [2] Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 595,000 tons, a change of - 1000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 68,587 tons, a change of 724 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 520,800 tons, a change of - 2500 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On December 10, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2740 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2820 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2890 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On December 10, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2540 yuan/ton, closed at 2477 yuan/ton, a change of - 81 yuan/ton or - 3.17% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2546 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2474 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 283,517 lots, and the position was 278,854 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 10, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 21,000 yuan/ton, with a daily price change of 100 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory and Cost - Profit - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons. The theoretical total cost was 21,387 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 387 yuan/ton. [4][5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to the target price policy for next year's cotton [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low. At the beginning of the sugar - making season, sugar mills have the intention to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of capital on the market should be watched [6] - **Pulp**: Due to the digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit its upward space. The impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market should be noted [9] Group 3: Summary of Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton contract 2601 yesterday was 13,780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The USDA's December report shows a slight decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season, and a slight increase in ending inventory [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and global textile consumption is weak, so ICE US cotton is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, supply is abundant in the short - term. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved and inventory pressure is acceptable [2] Group 4: Summary of Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar contract 2601 yesterday was 5328 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5340 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. As of now, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 2025/26 season, 7 less than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar harvest has suppressed the raw sugar market, but the short - term decline is limited. There is no sign of a reversal. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. Sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is high [4] Group 5: Summary of Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp contract 2605 yesterday was 5436 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.93%). Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market is stable, with individual price fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills are shutting down for maintenance. Domtar has permanently closed a paper mill, and Finnforest has temporarily shut down a pulp mill. Demand: European port pulp inventories have decreased in October, but in China, terminal demand is insufficient, paper mills' operating rates are low, and port inventories are at a historical high [8]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-11 联储如期降息，提振权益市场情绪 市场分析 联储如期降息。宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，创2024年3月以来最高；核心 CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。11月PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨，高基数下同比降幅 扩大至2.2%。海外方面，美联储货币政策委员会会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%– 3.75%。为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预 测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次 会议依据数据决策。 股指探底回升。现货市场，A股三大指数探底回升，沪指跌0.23%收于3900.50点，创业板指跌0.02%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，房地产、商贸零售、社会服务、通信行业领涨，银行、电力设备、计算机行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交额继续回落至1.78万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.05%报48057.75点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基 ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-11 2、国际油价正经历自新冠以来最糟糕的一年，而华尔街认为抛售尚未结束。目前布伦特原油期货价格在每桶62美 元附近，但根据美国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根士丹利五家投行的平均预测，2026年将进一步 下滑至约59美元。上述五家银行预计，2026年全球油市将面临日均约220万桶的供应过剩，因全球产量增长将超过 需求增速。高盛观点最为悲观，预计2026年布油均价为56美元，花旗则最为乐观，维持62美元的预期。(来源： Bloomberg) 3、哈萨克斯坦石油生产面临减产风险，因黑海关键出口系泊设施的维修工作持续拖延。目前，黑海CPC终端三个 系泊点中仅有一个在运行，一个此前遭乌克兰无人机严重损毁，另一个则正在维修中。CPC需至少两个系泊点同 时运作才能维持哈萨克斯坦的全额出口能力。由于当前运力受限，已导致储油设施库存不断累积。维修工作现在 预计要到12月15日才能完成，比此前预期耗时更长。照此情形，储油设施可能很快装满，迫使哈萨克斯坦不得不 削减产量。CPC石油终端该终端是哈萨克斯坦最大油田原油出口的唯一主要通道，同时也运输部分俄罗斯原油。(来 源：Bloomberg) ...