尿素日报 | 2025-06-25 供需延续宽松，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-24，尿素主力收盘1698元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1750元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：52 元/吨（+13）；河南基差：62元/吨（+13）；江苏基差：72元/吨（+13）；尿素生产利润220元/吨（+0），出口利润705 元/吨（+57）。 供应端：截至2025-06-24，企业产能利用率88.28%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为29.50 万吨（+5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-24，复合肥产能利用率31.82%（-1.99%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.32%（+0.55%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 伊朗以色列地缘冲突有缓和迹象，尿素盘面重回基本面交易，供需延续宽松。尿素开工高位运行，装置检修计划 偏少，产量预计走高，供应端压力较大。尿素下游农业需求追肥补货需求释放，工厂预售订单 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

昨日三大油脂价格震荡下跌，地缘政治影响原油价格大幅下跌，叠加美国产区天气改善，整体油脂承压下行。 策略 油脂日报 | 2025-06-25 原油价格下跌，油脂整体承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8326.00元/吨，环比变化-194元，幅度-2.28%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7950.00 元/吨，环比变化-176.00元，幅度-2.17%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9572.00元/吨，环比变化-149.00元，幅度-1.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.62%，现货基差P09+154.00，环比变 化+54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化-120.00元/吨，幅度-1.45%，现货基差Y09+210.00， 环比变化+56.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-150.00元，幅度-1.52%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国总统特朗普呼吁以色列停止向伊朗投掷炸弹，称这"严重违反"了他几个小时前宣布的两 国之 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-25 持货商继续低价清库 铜价仍维持震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-24，沪铜主力合约开于 78340元/吨，收于 78640元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.45%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,410元/吨，收于 78,470 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.04%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内采销情绪均有所回升，主因持货商继续低价清库令升水持续走跌，部分低价货源已经降低 至贴水出货。早盘盘初持货商报主流平水铜升水70元/吨，好铜升水100元/吨，随后迅速降价至升水40-80元/吨。此 时市场成交仍处于下游低价还盘状态。日内部分持货商有清库需求，积极甩货，平水附近成交低价货源，随后降 至贴水10元/吨，市场整体成交重心走弱。但日内非注册货源较少，成交贴水70-贴水40元/吨。目前季度末清库与 资金需求仍存，预计今日现货升水仍有继续走跌的可能。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储主席鲍威尔近期称，目前政策处于有利位置，可以观望等待再考虑利率调整。不过美联 储内部似乎仍存分歧。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，目前没有必要降息，预计今年晚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic data in May was mixed, with investment and exports under pressure while consumption showed resilience. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The US economy is in good condition but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts within the Fed. The Israel - Iran conflict has an uncertain future, which may impact global asset prices. Different commodities have different outlooks based on factors such as tariffs and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. There are expectations of further fiscal measures. The US - China economic and trade consultation made new progress, and there is flexibility in the US tariff schedule [1] - **US Economy**: The Fed maintained interest rates. Powell said the US economy is in good condition, but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials. US retail sales in May declined, while the June Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed expansion [2] - **Israel - Iran Conflict**: The conflict has lasted for 12 days. Although a cease - fire was announced, there are still disputes and the future is uncertain. Historically, such conflicts can impact global asset prices, including oil, stocks, and precious metals [3] - **Commodities**: For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. Agricultural products may see price increases due to tariffs. Energy prices are sensitive to Middle - East geopolitical events, with short - term fluctuations and a medium - term supply - side view of relative abundance. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - Do List - China's central bank will conduct a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25. Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, including a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [7]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-25 国内政策提振，指数反弹 市场分析 金融促消费政策出台。国内方面，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍，9月3日上午，北京天安门广场将举行纪念中国人 民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会，包括检阅部队。央行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和 扩大消费的指导意见》，从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘释放居民消费潜力、促进提升消费供 给效能、优化消费环境和政策支撑保障等六个方面提出19项重点举措。海外方面，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火， 伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其支持者"停火。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡也发表声明称，接 受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数收复3400点，涨1.15%收于3420.57点，创业板指涨2.3%。 行业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，电力设备、非银金融、商贸零售、汽车行业涨幅居前，仅石油石化、煤炭行业收 跌。当日沪深两市成交金额上升至1.4万亿元。海外市场，鲍威尔在国会证词中表示，美联储目前处于有利位置， 能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场。但他不排除关税 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-25 以伊冲突缓和，聚酯产业链大幅回落 市场要闻与数据 6月24日，PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约分别下跌4.57%4.17%、3.03%、3.69%、3.82%，主要原因是伊朗和以色列 停战下原油大跌，截至收盘时原油主力合约SC2508跌幅达到9%(跌停)。 周末美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，伊朗对美国的回击力度有限仅仅袭击了卡塔尔一个空的美军基地且在袭击前提前通 知美国随后，周二特朗普宣布伊以两国停火，战争将快速结束。局势显著缓和后，前期由于地缘冲突攀升的原油 溢价也迅速回落，已基本抹去这轮冲突爆发以来的涨幅，并带动能源板块整体下跌。 同时，伊朗的石化装置正在逐步重启中，周一隆众资讯消息称，伊朗因战争因素停车的一套EG装置正在重启，据 悉伊朗境内其他乙二醇装置近期也将陆续重启。PX装置暂没有消息，但若停战，预计也会陆续重启，市场担忧情 绪明显缓解。聚酯产业链期货产品也将重新回归基本面交易，关注前期原料高价下的聚酯减产计划在原料下跌后 还能否兑现；另外PX基本面依然偏紧但市场商谈氛围已有所回落。后期宏观方面7月还有OPEC+会议:关税延期时 限到期等需要关注，地缘端也需要关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the first half of July were revised, and the August contract is in a game to determine the specific time when the freight rates will peak. However, there is a possibility that the freight rates peaked in the first half of July. Considering Maersk's rate cut in the second week of July, there is an expectation that the prices in the first half of July have already peaked. Due to the unclear peak - time of Shanghai - Europe route freight rates, it is necessary to pay attention to Maersk's actual quotation in the first week of the second half of July [5][6]. - The supply and demand of the US route both increased, with supply recovering rapidly. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US have fallen from their highs. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. It is expected that the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small [2][3]. - The 6 - month contract is approaching delivery. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 94,675 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 101,361 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1306.60, 1151.00, 1888.10, 1772.00, 1304.60, and 1457.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On June 16, the SCFIS was 1697.63 points; on June 23, it was 1937.14 points; on June 30, the corresponding spot price was between 2900 - 3000 US dollars, equivalent to 2030 - 2100 points of SCFIS. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points [4]. - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different shipping companies have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the first week of July decreased from 3400 US dollars/FEU to 3160 US dollars/FEU, and then dropped to 2900 US dollars/FEU in the second week. PA Alliance's average price is around 3300 US dollars/FEU, and OA Alliance's average price is around 3600 US dollars/FEU [1][6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port in July was 279,500 TEU, and in August it was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July, including 5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the PA Alliance [3]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. Although the Strait of Hormuz is a key node for global oil trade, the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small because the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The supply and demand of the US route both increased. Due to the expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs in April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the transpacific east - bound route faster than during the pandemic. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for the Sino - US route has increased rapidly, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage if there are no new variables. The energy sector has fallen sharply due to the easing of the Middle East situation [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has support despite weak spot demand, as power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to increase in summer, and China's import and refinery demand may rise [1]. - The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and downstream demand is good, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum as domestic refinery production is expected to recover [2]. - The strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is to be oscillating and slightly bullish, with attention on the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Price Movements**: The night - session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 6.05% at 3,012 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.5% at 3,691 yuan/ton [1]. - **Geopolitical Impact**: After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the crude oil premium caused by the geopolitical conflict has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has fallen significantly [1]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The monthly spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient spot supply. However, with the approaching summer, power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. Egypt may import more LNG and high - sulfur fuel oil, and Saudi Arabia's imports are rising. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted, which could boost refinery demand [1]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, with low domestic production in May. Singapore's May bunker sales increased significantly, supporting the market. But domestic refinery production is expected to recover after the maintenance season, and the market lacks continuous upward drivers [2]. Strategy - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - **Cross - Variety**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Cross - Period**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Spot - Futures**: No strategy provided [3]. - **Options**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in the off - season with expectations remaining, and steel prices will maintain a volatile trend. The iron ore market is in the consumption off - season and will likely show a volatile and weakening trend. The coking coal and coke market has weak demand expectations and will maintain a volatile downward trend. The power coal market has a short - term price increase due to supply tightening in some areas, but the long - term supply is still in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 2977 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3099 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. For rebar, the Middle East conflict has repeated disturbances, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. For hot - rolled coil, the profit of sheet metal is better than that of building materials, and the production and sales are resilient. Although exports have declined slightly, they remain at a high level in the short term. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant [1]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuated. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port decreased slightly. The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, with a total of 35.07 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.63 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 813,000 tons, a 31.22% decrease from the previous day. The forward - looking spot transaction volume was 1.1 million tons, a 266.67% increase from the previous period. The iron ore price lacks the momentum to rebound, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and weakening trend in the short term. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of "volatile and weakening" is recommended, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, with a cumulative decline of 220 - 240 yuan/ton. The loss of coking enterprises has expanded again, and the coke production has slightly decreased. For coking coal, some coal mines in Shanxi have not resumed production, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The downstream procurement of low - price coal has improved. The inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port is still at a high level, and the customs clearance continues to fluctuate at a low level. In the short term, the futures prices of coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Strategy**: A strategy of "volatile" is recommended for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies are recommended for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are stable with a slight increase. Due to strict safety and environmental inspections, some coal mines have stopped production for maintenance, resulting in a tightening of coal supply in some areas. The rigid replenishment demand of chemical and coking users has increased, and prices have slightly increased. At ports, the inventory reduction effect is obvious, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has moved up. The price of imported coal has stopped falling. Currently, downstream users are mainly inquiring, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high. In the short term, the price will rise slightly, and in the long term, the supply is still in a loose pattern [8]. - **Strategy**: No strategies are recommended [9].