1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3] - For the egg market, the strategy is also cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - The recent firmness of live pig spot prices is supported by the hot demand for secondary fattening, but it will lead to an increase in pig supply in a few months, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market, with near - term contracts and spot prices firm and forward contracts weakening due to expected supply increase [2] - For eggs, after the previous inventory clearance, the current consumer demand is weak in the short - term, and the large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season suppresses the spot price, with the market sentiment being pessimistic and the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.53 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.68 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.79 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.62 yuan/kg, down 0.6%; beef was 66.41 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.82 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; eggs were 7.42 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; white - striped chicken was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Secondary fattening, mainly carried out by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leads to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Egg Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 102.00 yuan (+ 3.49%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.53 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On October 23, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.24 days, down 0.03 days (- 2.36%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.08 days (- 5.71%) [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - After the previous inventory clearance due to improved weather and high replenishment enthusiasm of traders, the current consumer demand is weak with no short - term positive factors, and each link is mainly digesting the previous inventory [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish, with the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly due to large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season [5]

铝期货方面：2025-10-23日沪铝主力合约开于21105元/吨，收于21165元/吨，较上一交易日变化155元/吨，最 高价达21180元/吨，最低价达到21070元/吨。全天交易日成交167345手，全天交易日持仓286749手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-24 氧化铝缺乏跟随反弹的动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21040元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20910元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-140元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20950元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-100元/吨。 库存方面，截止2025-10-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.8万吨，较上一期变化-0.7万吨，仓单库存66894 吨，较上一交易日变化-376吨，LME铝库存477675吨，较上一交易日变化-4850吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2855元/吨，山东价格录得2815元/吨，河南价格录得 2875 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On the port side, the port inventory rebounded on Thursday. Geopolitical conflicts have brought risks to Iranian cargoes, and the willingness of mainstream warehouses and downstream enterprises to receive Iranian ships may be affected, but there has been no obvious decrease in arrivals yet. The Marjan in Iran had a temporary technical shutdown, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter inspection plan [2]. - On the inland side, the coal - based methanol operation rate has significantly increased from the previous bottom, and the inland inventory has continued to build up from a low level. The operation rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are low [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][34]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [6][36][38]. 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and Lunan, etc. [6][40][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][57][59]. Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For inter - period trading, it is advisable to go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9132.00元/吨，环比变化-32元，幅度-0.35%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8188.00 元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9757.00元/吨，环比变化-77.00元，幅度-0.78%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9000.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.53%，现货基差P01-132.00，环比变化 -108.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8380.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元/吨，幅度-0.83%，现货基差Y01+192.00， 环比变化-20.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10070.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差 OI01+313.00，环比变化+7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：国际谷物理事会（IGC）最新月报显示，预计2025/26年度全球大豆产量将同比上一年度减少 100万吨至4.28亿吨，贸易量增加200万吨至1.87亿吨，消费量减少100万吨至4.3亿吨；结转库存减少400万吨至7900 万吨。据农业农村部监测，10月23日"农 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the continuous fluctuations in upstream prices and external uncertainty events, covering various industries including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream, and also tracks key indicators of multiple industries [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Middle - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On October 23, the EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including large Chinese refineries and oil traders for the first time, which was strongly opposed by China [1]. - **Service Industry**: Since mid - October this year until October 23, the search volume for "outdoor ski resorts" on Meituan increased by nearly 900% year - on - year, and the search volume for Keketuohai International Ski Resort increased by 279% year - on - year. The search volume for "delicious food near ski resorts" and "hotels near ski resorts" on Meituan increased by more than 20% year - on - year. The game "Escape from Duckov" sold over 1 million copies within a week after its launch on October 16 [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry dropped significantly, while the price of liquefied natural gas in the energy industry continued to rise [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry was at a high level, while the polyester operating rate declined. The coal consumption of power plants in the energy industry decreased [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline in the real estate industry, while the number of domestic flights increased slightly in the service industry [3]. C. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 23, the spot price of corn was 2177.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, the spot price of eggs was 6.1 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.30%, etc. [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 23, the spot price of copper was 85463.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.17%, the spot price of zinc was 22086.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.82%, etc. [37]. - **Black Metals**: On October 23, the spot price of iron ore was 794.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.16%, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter with a year - on - year decrease of 6.82%, etc. [37]. - **Energy**: On October 23, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 58.5 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.14%, the spot price of Brent crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.10%, etc. [37]. - **Chemical Industry**: On October 23, the spot price of PTA was 4467.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.43%, the spot price of polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.45%, etc. [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 23, the cement price index nationwide was 134.3 with a year - on - year increase of 0.27%, the building materials composite index was 111.9 points with a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, etc. [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently average. For industrial silicon, the inventory increased in October, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the southwest region starts to cut production at the end of October. For polysilicon, the overall inventory pressure is high, the production reduction in October was less than expected, and the production in November may decrease, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken [3][7]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, policy - side news, and anti - involution policies. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management [3][7]. - The industrial silicon valuation is currently low. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the industrial silicon futures market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,505 yuan/ton and closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (2.41%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 76,195 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,371 lots, a decrease of 367 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained slightly stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained slightly stable [1]. - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 123,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 436,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. Recently, some goods in Xinjiang warehouses have been transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream transaction was concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the average market price decreased week - on - week. However, the quoted prices of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable compared to last week [2]. Strategy - The current fundamentals are average. The recent increase in the start - up rate in the Northwest and the fact that the southwest region has not reached the dry season have led to a large increase in inventory in October. The intraday rebound was mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, the southwest region will start to cut production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - side news [3]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. For contracts during the dry season, consider going long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a volatile trend, opening at 50,225 yuan/ton and closing at 50,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 45,407 lots (49,016 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 86,148 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (with a month - on - month change of 1.98%), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a month - on - month increase of 6.70%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.84%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a month - on - month increase of 2.65%) [5]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The warehouse receipts in November will face cancellation, which will have a certain impact on the futures market. The futures market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations [7]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. The main contract 11 will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the contract 12 is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

流动性日报 | 2025-10-24 市场流动性概况 2025-10-23，股指板块成交7975.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+35.61%；持仓金额13326.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.74%；成交持仓比为60.11%。 国债板块成交4024.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.89%；持仓金额8034.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.93%；成交 持仓比为50.03%。 基本金属板块成交3433.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.10%；持仓金额5448.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.91%； 成交持仓比为75.77%。 贵金属板块成交9725.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.52%；持仓金额4662.87亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.70%；成交 持仓比为207.82%。 能源化工板块成交3999.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.06%；持仓金额4396.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.88%；成 交持仓比为72.45%。 农产品板块成交3156.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.12%；持仓金额5676.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为53.30%。 黑色建材板块成交2327 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The recovery of risk appetite driven by the stock market suppressed the bond market. The continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between the expectations of stable growth and easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The current fiscal data shows a pattern of "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion". The central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan. The repurchase rates in the money market have recently rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of 0.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, a decrease of 0.40% and a decline rate of 4.55%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 0.81% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.93, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 0.04%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1263, with a month - on - month increase of 0.002 and a growth rate of 0.03%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.35%; DR007 was 1.43, a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.42%; R007 was 1.53, an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.49%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a month - on - month change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.16%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.16% [9] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.65 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 115.21 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.07%, - 0.12%, and - 0.34% respectively [2] - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.001 yuan, - 0.006 yuan, 0.041 yuan, and 0.096 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion". The general public budget revenue in the first three quarters increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The expenditure continued to increase, with social security, education, and debt interest payments maintaining high growth rates. The government - managed fund budget revenue was still weak, the decline in land sales narrowed but the recovery was limited, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2] - On October 23, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.318%, 1.417%, 1.512%, and 1.556% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2] 4. Spread Overview No specific spread data is further described in the text, but it is mentioned that there are relevant charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][28][33] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on two - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [36] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on five - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [47] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on ten - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [54] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on thirty - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [61] Strategies - Unilateral: With the rebound of the repurchase rate and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]