Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. Attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]. - Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts and increasing global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% decrease and a - 4.55% change rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% increase and a 0.81% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.94, with a 0.35 increase and a 0.36% growth rate; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1191, with a 0.003 decrease and a - 0.04% change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.56% growth rate; DR007 is 1.44, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.70% growth rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 increase and a 1.49% growth rate; The 3 - month yield of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit is 1.60, with a 0.01 increase and a 0.31% growth rate; The 1 - year AA - AAA credit spread is 0.09, with a 0.00 increase and a 0.31% growth rate [9]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 115.59 yuan respectively, with daily changes of 0.04%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.16% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is - 0.018 yuan, - 0.005 yuan, - 0.034 yuan, and - 0.240 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but its sustainability remains to be seen. Expenditure continued to increase, with high growth rates in social security, education, and debt interest payments, providing stable support for aggregate demand. Government - managed fund budget revenue is still weak, and the decline in land sales has narrowed but the recovery is limited, while fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year, indicating that the fiscal side is hedging against economic downward pressure by accelerating the expenditure pace [2]. - On October 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.317%, 1.426%, 1.504%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data through multiple figures, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds, and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][31][32]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract through figures [34][37][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract through figures [47][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract through figures [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract through figures [61][63][67].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices may weaken due to new cotton listing,增产 expectations, and weak demand, but long - term prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [2][3] - For sugar, short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish due to global surplus expectations [3][5] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and short - term prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations, with attention on the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [7][8] Group 3: Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.56%) [1] - Spot: Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,586 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton; national average price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton [1] - Import: In September 2025, China imported 9.5 tons of cotton, a 31.16% increase from the previous month and an 18.67% decrease from the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2025, imports were 68.5 tons, a 69.82% decrease from the same period last year [2] Market Analysis - International: Due to the US government shutdown, key data was postponed, and the new - year global cotton market is expected to be loose. The short - term external market is under pressure [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and the new - year market starts with low inventory. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, limiting the decline of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may weaken, but long - term prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure [3] Group 4: Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5770 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Export: Brazil exported 233.46 tons of sugar and molasses in the third week of October, a 2.68% decrease from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures rose during the day and fell at night following the external market. Brazilian supply is strong, suppressing raw sugar prices, but there is support from the ethanol price [4][5] - In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but the increase in production in the new season may be less than expected [5] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term prices may follow the external market, and long - term prices are bearish [3][5] Group 5: Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [5] - Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual impact on supply is limited, and domestic port inventory remains high [7] - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, the US, and China is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale restocking [7] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of fourth - quarter demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The counter - measure taken by China against the US USTR port surcharge has a relatively small impact on the European routes [4]. - The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations, and the 10 - month contract delivery settlement price may be higher than 1110 points. There are large differences in the market regarding the final delivery settlement price [5]. - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, and the shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate at a high level. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations [6][7]. - The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price quotes and price increase letters. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam 45 - week quote is 1410/2350, and HPL has price increase letters for November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: On October 21, local time, Turkey's diplomatic and intelligence officials met with Hamas representatives in Doha to discuss the Gaza situation and the implementation of the cease - fire agreement, but more details were not disclosed [2]. 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in October is 250,800 TEU, 299,500 TEU in November, and 308,800 TEU in December. There are 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: The SCFIS on October 20 exceeded expectations. The final SCFIS index on the 27th is estimated to be higher than 1140.38 points, and the delivery settlement price of the 10 - month contract may be higher than 1110 points. The market has large differences in the final delivery settlement price [5][6]. - **December Contract**: The trading focuses on the rhythm. The shipping companies will adjust the supply side to keep the freight rate high. The trading process will involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [6]. - **February 2026 Contract**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. If the shipping companies' price - holding period is extended, the February contract price may be higher than the December contract price [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The 12 - month contract is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is recommended for now [9]. 3.5 Ship Delivery - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 17, 2025, 211 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.706 million TEU [8].

尿素日报 | 2025-10-22 下游采购依旧谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-21，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（+9）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1540 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1540元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-69 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：-69元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：-59元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润10元/吨（-10），出口利润982 元/吨（-1）。 供应端：截至2025-10-21，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-21，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价，伴随盘面小幅上涨，现货成交 好转，但下游采购依旧谨慎。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The game between weak reality and policy expectations continues, and the polysilicon futures market fluctuates widely. The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation currently, but there may be a reduction in production in the southwest region at the end of October. The polysilicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price transmission to downstream products is not smooth. However, relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the long - term, which may bring opportunities for the market [1][3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 107,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,851 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 9300 - 9400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 11100 - 11500 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC price may have a small trial increase, but it may be under pressure this week if the actual situation does not meet expectations [1]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes of organic silicon in China was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% and a year - on - year increase of 9.57%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The import volume in September 2025 was 7500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.46%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 71,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [2]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but production may decrease in the southwest at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity withdrawal, the market may rise. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,210 yuan/ton and closed at 50,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 52,237 lots (56,806 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 121,870 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a month - on - month change of 5.33%), the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a month - on - month change of 3.16%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (a month - on - month change of 11.85%) [6]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. There will be a significant reduction in production in the southwest region in November. The silicon wafer production schedule increased significantly in October, but silicon wafer enterprises are expected to reduce production from November to December according to the association's quota [6]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.32 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamental situation of polysilicon is average, with high inventory pressure. The production reduction in October did not meet expectations, and the price transmission to downstream products was not smooth. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, with the 11th main contract fluctuating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the 12th contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Group 5: Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the shutdown in the southwest; changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; and the start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - discipline on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises; the promotion of the spot market by the futures listing; capital sentiment; and policy disturbances [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - With the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine easing, the safe-haven premium of precious metals has faded, and the demand for gold investment may weaken slightly. Coupled with the profit-taking of investors, the prices of gold and silver are expected to be range-bound in the near term [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiations, and Japan's new Prime Minister Kishida Sanae is considering a supplementary budget to address rising prices [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 990.00 yuan/gram and closed at 994.06 yuan/gram, up 2.45% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 945.44 yuan/gram, down 4.89% from the afternoon session [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,982.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,805.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.54% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,582,985 lots, and the open interest was 424,554 lots. The night session closed at 11,285 yuan/kilogram, down 4.40% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was 3.953%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.508%, also unchanged [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 522 lots, and the short positions decreased by 224 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 695,291 lots, down 29.90% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contracts was 2,383,616 lots, down 35.60% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,058.66 tons, while the silver ETF holdings decreased by 93 tons to 15,677 tons [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On October 21, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -31.30 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,378.39 yuan/kilogram [6]. - The ratio of the prices of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.21, up 1.90% from the previous trading day, and the ratio in the overseas market was 82.10, up 0.62% [6]. Fundamentals - On October 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 87,030 kilograms, up 21.13% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 2,116,166 kilograms, up 27.61% [7]. - The gold delivery volume was 16,814 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 139,020 kilograms [7]. Strategies - Gold: The price of gold is expected to be range-bound, with the Au2512 contract likely to trade between 930 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price of silver is also expected to be range-bound, with the Ag2512 contract likely to trade between 10,800 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [4] - Red dates: Neutral [9] Core Views - Apple: The current late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with an obvious polarization trend. The price trend of late Fuji apples, the acquisition mentality of merchants, the selling mentality of fruit farmers, weather conditions, and terminal consumption progress should be focused on [3][4]. - Red dates: If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a shock pattern with limited upward space and strong downward support. The acquisition progress and price changes of new - season red dates in the main producing areas should be concerned [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.17% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1,350, a change of + 15 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 550, a change of + 15 from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The apple futures price declined slightly yesterday. The supply of late Fuji apples in major producing areas increased, and the market polarization continued. The price of high - quality apples in western producing areas such as Gansu Jingning and Shaanxi Luochuan was stable and firm, and the ordering was in the middle and late stages. In Shandong producing areas, due to the average redness and brightness of the fruits, merchants were cautious in their acquisitions, and the opening prices were determined by quality. The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, while the price of general - quality apples may decline due to the increase in supply [2][3]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Currently, late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with an obvious polarization trend [4]. Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1,780, a change of + 5 from the previous day [5]. Market Analysis - The red dates futures price showed a volatile trend yesterday. The orchard - ordering process in the main producing areas of Xinjiang was fast. Apples in Hetian and Qiemo were being harvested, and those in Alar were sporadically harvested. The mainstream price was 6.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg. The supply of goods in the Hebei sales area increased slightly, and merchants purchased on demand. The overall inventory pressure still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - overdraft, and a reduction in production is a normal expectation. It is estimated that the new - season yield is between 560,000 and 620,000 tons [7][8]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a shock pattern with limited upward space and strong downward support. The acquisition progress and price changes of new - season red dates in the main producing areas should be concerned [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The EG main contract closed at 4004 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton, +0.02% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4090 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton, -0.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 74 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -68 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -627 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (+3.8 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (+5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.5 tons, and port inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 5.3 tons and at the secondary ports are 6.3 tons, and inventories are expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol production load is operating at a high level, overseas supply losses are still significant, and there are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in a shutdown or low - load operation state with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, the peak season is not prosperous, and the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The overall EG balance sheet faces significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol port inventories are expected to gradually rise [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. As ethylene glycol port inventories rise, there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - made EG, coal - made syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as the total load and syngas - made load of ethylene glycol [1][10][16]. International Price Difference - It provides the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It includes the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [20][21][24]. Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of ethylene glycol at ports in East China, including overall port inventories, inventories at specific ports like Zhangjiagang and Ningbo, and the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at ports in East China [28][30][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment for steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating; market sentiment for glass and soda ash is low, with glass and soda ash prices oscillating at low levels; the futures prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon have risen and then fallen, while the spot prices have shown mediocre performance [1][3] - For glass, supply is on a low - level upward trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and demand is expected to further decline with the end of the consumption peak season; for soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction remains prominent, supply is at a high level and has growth expectations, and the de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - For silicomanganese, enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate; for ferrosilicon, enterprise production has slightly decreased, losses continue, demand is weakening, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated yesterday with active intraday trading, while the spot market had low trading sentiment and a wait - and - see attitude; soda ash futures also oscillated, with regional spot prices slightly adjusted and downstream buyers restocking based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass supply is on a low - level upward trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and demand is expected to decline further with the end of the consumption peak season; soda ash supply is at a high level and has growth expectations, demand has resilience, and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly; Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicomanganese futures oscillated steadily yesterday, and the mainstream steel tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, with the 6517 grade having different market prices in the north and south; the main contract of ferrosilicon futures oscillated upward, and the spot prices were stable, with different prices for different grades in Ningxia [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand is weakening with the decline of hot metal, and prices are expected to oscillate; ferrosilicon enterprises' production has slightly decreased, losses continue, demand is weakening, and inventory has increased, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating; Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene remains relatively loose, and the spot market continues to be weak. The demand side is cautious in restocking, mainly for rigid demand. The cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. The overall supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with limited upward drive, but also limited downward space at the current price level [2] - Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, a sell - high reverse spread for PL01 - 02 in inter - period trading, and no strategy for inter - variety trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure is presented through charts including the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Charts show the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production profit and capacity utilization, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, and naphtha cracking production profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Charts present the price differences between South Korea FOB, Japan CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Charts display the production profit and capacity utilization of downstream products such as PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Charts show propylene plant inventory and PP powder plant inventory [68]