Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The refined nickel market is in a state of oversupply, with recent trading relatively sluggish. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - The stainless steel market also has low market confidence. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,700 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,158 lots, and the open interest was 76,791 lots. The contract showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the daily MACD red column area continued to expand. The 117,000 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term. The spot market had mixed price changes, and the supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,221 (-36.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (-288) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower range is 117,000 - 118,000. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,590 yuan/ton and closed at 12,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,051 lots, and the open interest was 101,013 lots. The contract oscillated and declined, and the daily MACD red column area's expansion speed slowed down. The 12,400 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term, and the 13,100 level is a resistance level. The spot market had weak trading and low confidence. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower range is 12,400 - 12,500. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

买卖双方拉锯 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-30，沪铜主力合约开于 79520元/吨，收于 79870元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.06%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 79,630元/吨，收于 79,780 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.01%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，日内为季度末，多数企业现货不参与采销，部分持货商持货保持挺价态度。早盘盘初铁峰类升水60-80 元/吨被抢，随后升水90-100元/吨。主流平水铜升水100-140元/吨，好铜升水140-160元/吨。BMK等升水40元/吨成 交不佳，非注册均升水报价，下游还盘贴水，然持货商出货意愿降低。 日内成交拉锯，月末几个交易日贸易商积 极收取低价货源，预计今日进入7月首个交易日现货报价仍然坚挺，但需注意月差走扩对现货升水的压制。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，在经济数据方面，美国芝加哥6月商业活动指数从5月份的40.5微降至40.4，低于43.0的预 期，为1月以来最低水平，意味着经济活动已连续19个月萎缩， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to a drop in the US dollar index and a rise in Shanghai aluminum prices. The alumina spot price has slightly weakened, and the smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the consumption off - season. Although the overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the absolute inventory value remains at a historically low level, with long - term attention to delivery risks [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but the alumina plants are relatively pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low enthusiasm for bauxite procurement. The weekly production and inventory are both rising significantly, and the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Currently, the delivery risk has been alleviated [4]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,690 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract on June 30, 2025, was 20,575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 167,837 lots and a position of 272,406 lots [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 345,750 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The supply is stable in China, and the Middle East crisis has not affected Iranian electrolytic aluminum. The European natural gas inventory is in good condition. The overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, and inventory accumulation is expected in July, but the accumulation range is limited [3]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to take a neutral stance. For arbitrage, a long - position in the positive spread of Shanghai aluminum is recommended [5]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 30, 2025, was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,985 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 253,492 lots and a position of 288,909 lots [2]. Market Analysis - A certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered 10,000 tons of alumina spot, and the winning bid price was between 3,370 - 3,410 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the previous transaction. The cost is stable, but alumina plants are pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. The production and inventory are rising [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a cautiously bearish stance is recommended [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 26,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons; the total inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 2,100 tons [2]. Market Analysis - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a neutral stance is recommended. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on AD11 and short on AL11 [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现实及预期供给压力依旧不减 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.24 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22490元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌35元/吨至80元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌60元/吨至22490元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至80元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至 22410元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-30沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22495元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨，全天交易日成 交160924手，较前一交易日减少64900手，全天交易日持仓140186手，较前一交易日减少2242手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1750吨。 市场分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on June 30, 2025, including changes in trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratios, reflecting the market liquidity situation of different sectors [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - position ratios, trading volume change rates, position quantities, position values, trading volumes, and trading amounts of various sectors, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On June 30, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 419.937 billion yuan, a - 17.35% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 1001.352 billion yuan, a - 4.39% change; the trading - position ratio was 41.75%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the stock index plate [1][12][13] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 362.091 billion yuan, a + 8.43% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 874.609 billion yuan, a - 2.87% change; the trading - position ratio was 42.58%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][20][23] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The base metals plate had a trading volume of 278.158 billion yuan, a - 9.34% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 409.516 billion yuan, a - 1.64% change; the trading - position ratio was 117.52%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 428.967 billion yuan, a + 6.04% change; the position value was 427.153 billion yuan, a - 2.43% change; the trading - position ratio was 106.03%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the metal plate [1][37][39] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 465.256 billion yuan, a + 0.62% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 387.537 billion yuan, a + 0.32% change; the trading - position ratio was 92.77%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [1][39][41] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 300.795 billion yuan, a + 24.13% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 550.123 billion yuan, a - 1.02% change; the trading - position ratio was 48.32%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [1][52][54] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 238.173 billion yuan, a + 2.58% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 345.320 billion yuan, a + 0.10% change; the trading - position ratio was 70.10%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][57][59]

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8330.00元/吨，环比变化-46元，幅度-0.55%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-18.00元，幅度-0.22%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9415.00元/吨，环比变化-51.00元，幅度-0.54%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8410.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.71%，现货基差P09+80.00，环比变化-14.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+176.00，环比变 化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9570.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差OI09+155.00，环 比变化+21.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国4月用于生产生物柴油的豆油减少至8.29亿磅，3月为8.32亿磅。 豆油仍是美国生物柴油最大原料来源。针对行业分析师的调查显示，截至2025年6月26日当周，美国大豆出口检验 量料为15-40万吨，玉米出口检验量料为125-166.5万吨，小麦出口检验量料为2 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-01 主产国供应前景乐观，原糖期价再度重挫 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13740元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15117元/吨，较前一日变动+64元/吨，现货基差CF09+1377，较前一日变动+84；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+45元/吨，现货基差CF09+1414，较前一日变动+65。 近期市场资讯，2025年6月，国家棉花市场监测系统就棉花实播面积展开全国范围专项调查，样本涉及14个省（自 治区）、46个县（市、团场）、1700个定点信息联系户。调查结果显示，2025年全国棉花实播面积4580.3万亩，同比 增加270.7万亩，增幅6.3%。其中，新疆棉花实播面积为4102.0万亩，同比增加310.3万亩，增幅8.2%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，中东地缘政治缓和提振市场情绪，美元有所走弱，提振ICE美棉走高。6月USDA 供需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。 近期美棉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The market risk sentiment has grown as the Israel-Iran conflict eases. The expectation of a looser Fed monetary policy mainly affects risk assets, causing the gold price to fluctuate downward. In the long term, the real interest rate is likely to decline. Gold remains an irreplaceable investment if the expansion of the US fiscal and debt scale persists. For gold, short - term trading can be done by selling high and buying low between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram, and long - term positions can be lightly established based on the 740 yuan/gram level. For silver, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging in the range of 8,640 yuan/kg to 8,660 yuan/kg with a stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US economic data is poor. The Chicago business activity index in June dropped slightly to 40.4 from 40.5 in May, lower than the expected 43.0, the lowest since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic activity contraction. The Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut this year and three next year. Goldman Sachs advanced its prediction of the Fed rate cut to September. Trump criticized the Fed, and there are speculations about Powell's successor [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 764.10 yuan/gram and closed at 767.58 yuan/gram, up 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 211,285 lots, and the open interest was 155,821 lots. In the night session, it opened at 766.18 yuan/gram and closed at 768.98 yuan/gram, up 0.54% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,716 yuan/kg and closed at 8,762 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 504,424 lots, and the open interest was 277,702 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,737 yuan/kg and closed at 8,722 yuan/kg, up 0.10% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.29%, with a change of 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.52%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 129 lots and the short positions by 52 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 398,616 lots, up 4.72% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 10 lots and the short positions decreased by 1,436 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 949,707 lots, down 13.39% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 952.53 tons, down 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,826.61 tons, down 39.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On June 30, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 9.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 553.85 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 87.60, up 0.50% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 90.86, with a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57,766 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 487,620 kg, with a change of 2.21% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,240 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price for the June contract is determined, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of July. There is a possibility that the freight rate peaked in the first half of July, and the EC2410 contract in the off - season can be sold for hedging when the price is high [1][3][5] - Geopolitically, China will accelerate rare - earth exports to the US, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China. The freight rates on the US routes are stabilizing after a decline from their high levels [2] - The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe routes are in a state of correction in the first half of July, and there is a game about when the freight rate will peak in the August contract [4][5] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract in the unilateral market and a long - December, short - October strategy in the arbitrage market [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 86,515 lots, and the daily trading volume is 46,152 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1307.80, 1169.80, 1888.50, 1761.40, 1339.00, and 1500.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On the online quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route: Maersk's price in the second week of July is 1740/2900 (down $200/FEU from the previous period and now up to 1770/2960); HPL's quotation for the first half of July is 2035/3235, and for the second half is 2435/3835. Other shipping companies also have corresponding quotations [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the second week of the first half of July is 1586/2245 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price is $4120/FEU (compared to $6410/FEU in the first half of June) [2] - The SCFIS on June 16, 23, and 30 are 1697.63, 1937.14, and 2123.24 points respectively, and the June contract settlement price is 1919.34 points [3] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July is 261,900 TEU, and in August is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. The decrease in capacity in July is mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route [3] - As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU and 6 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is gradually entering the peak consumption season for lead-acid batteries, and the rising prices have stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, showing a "buying on the rise" characteristic. The improvement in macro sentiment and the spillover of risk sentiment will benefit lead prices to some extent [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$22.14/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,275 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,105 yuan/ton, closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,321 lots, a decrease of 8,329 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 51,408 lots, a decrease of 392 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,220 yuan/ton and a low of 17,095 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,200 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On June 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 30, the LME lead inventory was 271,925 tons, an increase of 175 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: For the SHFE lead 2508 contract, consider buying on dips between 16,800 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - **Options Strategy**: Sell put options at a strike price of 16,500 yuan/ton [3]