石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-05 市场压力仍存，盘面延续弱势 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 市场分析 1、12月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价2952元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨31元/吨，涨幅 1.06%；持仓104372手，环比下跌8340手，成交129735手，环比上涨121328手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2840—3470元/吨；华南，2960—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3300元/吨。 虽然原油价格近日小幅反弹，但沥青盘面依然维持低位震荡态势，反弹动力暂有限，需等待筑底完成。现货方面， 昨日西北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格均出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。就沥青自身基本面而 言，市场情绪仍较弱，需求端持续疲软，南方炼厂释放供应较多，压制沥青现货价格。虽然有部分冬储合同释放， 但逆转弱势还需要更多利好因素刺激。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主，等待市场筑底 跨期：逢高反套2601/ ...

油料日报 | 2025-12-05 花生下游疲弱，油厂压价 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4105.00元/吨，较前日变化-34.00元/吨，幅度-0.82%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-5，较前日变化+34，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆现货价格呈现稳中趋强态势，小幅上扬20-40元/吨。基层余粮持续消化，存 量逐步见底，农户惜售情绪普遍，构成市场价格底部的刚性支撑。贸易环节方面，市场流通节奏总体平缓，多数 粮商已完成前期订单交付，现阶段购销活跃度相对有限，买卖双方多持观望态度，交投氛围趋于谨慎。从供需结 构来看，市场整体处于紧平衡状态，预计短期大豆价格稳中偏强。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤， 较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江齐 齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等 蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮 ...

油脂上涨动力不足，盘面持续震荡 油脂日报 | 2025-12-05 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8666.00元/吨，环比变化-64元，幅度-0.73%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8254.00 元/吨，环比变化-32.00元，幅度-0.39%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9618.00元/吨，环比变化-93.00元，幅度-0.96%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8660.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.92%，现货基差P01+-6.00，环比变化-16.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8420.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.47%，现货基差Y01+166.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9870.00元/吨，环比变化-100.00元，幅度-1.00%，现货基差OI01+252.00， 环比变化-7.00元。 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总：巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西12月大豆出口量料为281万吨，去年同期为147 万吨。巴西12月豆粕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent strength of the external market provides some support to the domestic market, but the upward driving force on the futures market is still limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4000 - 4160 yuan/ton; North China market 4250 - 4470 yuan/ton; East China market 4270 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4600 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4350 - 4520 yuan/ton; South China market 4400 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 590 and 582 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4594 and 4532 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, they were 583 and 575 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4540 and 4478 yuan/ton respectively, up 14 and 15 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, Saudi Aramco's December CP increased, and the external swap price maintained a volatile and strong trend, raising the LPG import cost. In the spot market, the price in the East China region rose moderately yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained stable, with a general trading atmosphere and controllable upstream inventory pressure [1] - In terms of fundamentals, the Middle - East supply has tightened marginally recently, the maintenance of Kuwait's Azour refinery has been extended, and the domestic refinery supply is relatively stable. Overseas supply is tightened in the short - term but remains relatively loose in the medium - term. In terms of demand, the combustion - end demand is acceptable; in the deep - processing sector, the operating rate of PDH plants is still limited by profit factors [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [2]

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-05 盘面小幅反弹，短期市场矛盾有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收涨0.29%，报2442元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.73%，报3042 元/吨。 近日原油价格从低位小幅反弹，但油市供过于求的预期在逐步兑现，俄乌和平谈判的进展对短期市场情绪造成影 响，而中期成本端对燃料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，高硫燃料油裂解价差连续调整后需要炼厂端的增量需求来托底。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11 月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零，短期低硫燃料油市场支撑仍存。近日高低硫价差短期走势震荡偏强，但预 计上方空间有限。 | 图1：新加坡高硫380燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2：新加坡低硫燃料油现货价格 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | 图3：新加坡高硫燃料油掉期近月合约 | 单位：美元/吨 3 | | 图4： ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-05 聚乙烯下游开工延续走低 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6776元/吨（-32），PP主力合约收盘价为6359元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为6700 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6880元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6350元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-76元/吨（-18），LL 华东基差为104元/吨（+32）， PP华东基差为-9元/吨（+23）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（-0.5%），PP开工率为77.6%（-0.5%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为359.7元/吨（-12.1），PP油制生产利润为-410.3元/吨（-12.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为-534.6元/吨（+23.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为136.7元/吨（+91.1），PP进口利润为-223.3元/吨（+5.9），PP出口利润为-23.4美元/吨（-0.8）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为48.1%（-0.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.2%（-0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-05 现货库存充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2833元/吨，较前日变动-213元/吨，幅度-6.99%；菜粕2601合约2422元/吨，较前 日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M01+237，较前日变动+203；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01+187，较前日变动 +213；广东地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M01+167，较前日变动+203。福建地 区菜粕现货价格2570元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM01+148，较前日变动-4。 美豆进口情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯， 咨询机构Safras & Mercado的调查显示，基于港口装运计划，12月份巴西大豆出口量估计为281.4 万吨。11月的大豆出口量估计为423.4万吨，高于去年同期的233.9万吨。10月份的大豆出口量估计为639.8万吨。作 物专家迈克尔·科尔多涅博士表示，巴西2 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-05 丙烯下游整体开工走弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5885元/吨（-36），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（-15），丙烯华北现货价6050元/吨（-15）， 丙烯华东基差115元/吨（+21），丙烯华北基差115元/吨（+1）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR188美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR58美元/吨（+2），进口利润-321元/吨（+6），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-250元/吨（+15）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润407元/吨（+69）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润622元/吨（+161）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润440元/吨（+11）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-550元/吨（+18）；酚 酮开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-827元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，东华能源宁波PDH装置、茂名石化裂解装置检修，巨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the market liquidity situation on December 4, 2025, including the trading volume, holding value, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity The report details the trading volume, holding value, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for multiple sectors, including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 5422.17 billion yuan, a - 3.31% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 12717.80 billion yuan, a - 2.71% change. The trading - holding ratio was 42.45% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 6338.89 billion yuan, a + 82.55% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 7460.51 billion yuan, a - 0.79% change. The trading - holding ratio was 86.52% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - Basic Metal: On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 6288.88 billion yuan, a + 41.78% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 6733.83 billion yuan, a + 3.96% change. The trading - holding ratio was 81.17% [1]. - Precious Metal: On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 10437.94 billion yuan, a - 5.41% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 4862.81 billion yuan, with no change. The trading - holding ratio was 326.71% [1]. V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 3831.98 billion yuan, a - 4.20% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 4645.49 billion yuan, a - 0.25% change. The trading - holding ratio was 70.49% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 3177.12 billion yuan, a + 14.85% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 6081.99 billion yuan, a + 0.22% change. The trading - holding ratio was 52.56% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume was 2288.76 billion yuan, a + 7.00% change from the previous trading day. The holding value was 3559.93 billion yuan, a + 0.08% change. The trading - holding ratio was 64.59% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory this week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The overall supply-demand logic of the fundamentals: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short-process oil chemical plants had relatively high production pressure. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. - The strategy is unilateral neutral. The commissioning pressure is relatively large, and with the increase in port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price center of ethylene glycol has now fallen to the lowest level in the past two years, and recently, negative feedback from high-cost plants has gradually emerged, and the pressure of inventory accumulation has been alleviated [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3826 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.42%. The spot basis of EG in East China was -7 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -71 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1058 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the content. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The inventory of polyester was at a low level, and the polyester load provided good support, but the orders weakened marginally [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 75.3 tons, up 2.1 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 71.9 tons, up 1.1 tons month-on-month. The total planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week were 16.1 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port were 4.1 tons, which were relatively high, and it is expected that the main port will continue to accumulate inventory [1].