Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil price has been continuously declining recently under the influence of multiple negative factors such as the fundamentals, the macro - aspect, and geopolitical policies, suppressing the overall energy sector. Due to the key window period of Sino - US and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, macro uncertainties remain, and caution is advised [1] - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a differentiation pattern where high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. For high - sulfur fuel oil, there is some support in its structure, but the peak demand season for power generation has ended, and the market has mixed long and short factors, with limited upward driving force based on the current valuation [1] - The recent fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are relatively weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. Under the intensifying trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks. The downstream demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive to tariff frictions. However, the RFCC unit of Dangote refinery restarted on October 19, and the current operating rate is around 60%. The estimated low - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume from Nigeria in October is 340,000 tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with the previous month. If the RFCC unit operates stably, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2] Group 3: Strategy Summary - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly wait - and - see in the short term [3] - There are no specific strategies for cross - varieties, cross - periods, spot - futures, options [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.11% at 2,647 yuan/ton during the day session. The main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.42% at 3,072 yuan/ton during the day session [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a neutral view of copper prices, with an expected trading range of RMB 81,600/ton to RMB 86,600/ton this week [7] Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The overall demand on the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai Copper main contract opened at RMB 85,220/ton and closed at RMB 85,400/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at RMB 85,300/ton and closed at RMB 85,020/ton, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at par to a premium of RMB 100/ton, with an average premium of RMB 50, down RMB 10 from the previous day. The copper price ranged from RMB 85,560 - 85,900/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was divided. High copper prices suppressed purchasing willingness, and it is expected that the demand will not improve under high prices, and the spot premium will remain under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Japan's new female Prime Minister, Takamori Sanae, is considering a supplementary budget to address high prices [3] Mine - end - BHP's Escondida copper mine produced 328,900 tons in Q3 2025, an 8% year - on - year increase and unchanged quarter - on - quarter. The increase was due to record processing volume and improved recovery, partially offset by lower ore grades. The 2026 fiscal year production guidance remains at 1.15 - 1.25 million tons, and the expected annual ore grade is about 0.85% [4] Smelting and Import - In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5] Consumption - In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded last week but were still below pre - holiday levels and down over 15 percentage points year - on - year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and the overall recovery space is limited [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 137,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,641 tons to 37,678 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Arbitrage and Options - Arbitrage: Put on hold - Options: Short put @ RMB 81,000/ton [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View - Overseas premiums for zinc have strengthened further, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand. The previous bearish logic for zinc prices has begun to change due to macro - favorable factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $230.29 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 21,910 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 21,940 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On October 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,915 yuan/ton and closed at 21,970 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 108,521 lots, and the open interest was 130,442 lots. The highest price was 22,045 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,875 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, a change of 2,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,275 tons, a change of - 50 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - Overseas premiums have strengthened, and the export profit of refined zinc in China has expanded. Domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, leading to a decline in domestic TC. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the domestic - foreign zinc price ratio, their processing fees may also be adjusted downward. The domestic market remains in surplus, but with the opening of the export window, the accumulation of social inventory is expected to be less than expected. The comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed, and if this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, smelting enthusiasm may be dampened, and domestic supply pressure is expected to ease [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The caustic soda market has a stable - to - falling spot price, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,699 yuan/ton (- 3), the East China basis was - 69 yuan/ton (+ 3), and the South China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,630 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,700 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit was - 12 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 713 yuan/ton (- 91), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 553 yuan/ton (- 14), and the PVC export profit was - 0.8 US dollars/ton (- 0.2) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC factory inventory was 36.0 tons (- 2.3), the PVC social inventory was 55.6 tons (- 0.1), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 74.73% (- 7.03%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 76.10% (- 2.44%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.14% (- 5.66%) [1] - Downstream orders: The production enterprise's pre - sales volume was 55.6 tons (- 2.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,375 yuan/ton (- 5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 188 yuan/ton (+ 5) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 820 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,280 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,571 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 988.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 216.28 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,241.75 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.33 tons (- 1.79), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.45 tons (+ 0.34), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.40% (- 2.90%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 86.22% (- 0.10%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 66.76% (+ 0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 88.61% (- 1.02%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market may rebound with macro - sentiment after a volatile decline. The supply is abundant with new capacity coming on - stream and some maintenance enterprises resuming production. The demand has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The export has shown strong growth, but there are potential impacts from anti - dumping investigations [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable - to - falling. The supply is expected to increase slightly with new capacity and the resumption of maintenance enterprises. The demand from the alumina industry has some uncertainties, and the non - aluminum downstream has seen an increase in operation rate. The inventory has decreased, and there is cost support [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract when the spread of V01 - 05 is high - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery spread: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity spread: None [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to close at 3916.33 points and the ChiNext Index rising 3.02%. Most sector indices increased, with the communication, electronics, and building decoration sectors leading the gains, while only the coal sector closed lower. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was approximately 1.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.47% to 46924.74 points [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of IC and IM rebounded, and both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [1]. - In the short term, the market is likely to continue the pattern of shock digestion, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices still operating within the box range formed in September [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The content shows the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][8][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance data of major domestic stock indices on October 21, 2025, and October 20, 2025, are presented. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% from 3863.89 to 3916.33 [12]. - The content also includes the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 122466, an increase of 10179, and the open interest was 258766, an increase of 1315 [14]. - The basis data of stock index futures for different contracts (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are given, such as the current - month contract basis of the IF was - 19.27, a decrease of 0.85 [38]. - The inter - period spread data of stock index futures are presented, including the spread between the next month and the current month, the next quarter and the current month, etc. For example, the spread between the next month and the current month of the IF was - 11.00, an increase of 2.00 [43] - There are also various figures related to stock index futures, such as the open interest of different contracts, the latest open - interest ratio, and the net open interest of foreign investors in different contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][14][15]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, mainly from the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Guyana. Guyana's loading volume increased from 700,000 barrels per day to 950,000 barrels per day after the commissioning of the Yellowtail FPSO project, with a faster - than - expected increase in shipments. Saudi Arabia's recent shipments have also increased to nearly 7 million barrels per day. Iraq's northern crude oil exports are expected to grow in the future as the recovery has not been reflected in shipping data [2]. - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 30 cents to $57.82 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 31 cents to $61.32 per barrel, a 0.51% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 0.64% at 439 yuan per barrel [1]. - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, higher than the market expectation of 2.3%. The main driving factors were the narrowing year - on - year decline in gasoline prices and rising food prices. The probability that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29 is over 86%. If the cut occurs, the benchmark policy rate will drop to 2.25%. Canada's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month in September, compared with a 0.1% decline in August [1]. - In the four weeks ending October 19, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports climbed to a 29 - month high, approaching the highest level after the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The four - week average export volume from its ports reached 3.82 million barrels per day, an increase of 80,000 barrels from the data for the period ending October 12, the highest since May 2023. However, exports may be approaching their peak [1]. - Malaysia's national oil company has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to jointly promote oil and gas exploration and production cooperation in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [1]. - The Russian military attacked Ukraine's energy facilities on the night of October 20 [1]. Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil loading volumes have increased significantly, with notable increases in Guyana and Saudi Arabia, and potential growth in Iraq's northern exports [2]. Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak, and previous short positions should be held [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The supply - demand pattern of oils remains stable in the short term, and prices are mainly in a state of fluctuating adjustment [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9294.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 24 yuan and a decline of - 0.26%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8294.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 4.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.05%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9864.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 54.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.54% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9290.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.00%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 4.00, with a month - on - month change of + 24.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8520.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 226.00, with a month - on - month change of + 14.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10170.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.59%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 306.00, with a month - on - month change of - 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in October to be 7.34 million tons, higher than last week's forecast of 7.31 million tons; soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.09 million tons, higher than last week's forecast of 2.01 million tons; and corn exports are expected to be 6.57 million tons, higher than last week's forecast of 6.46 million tons. A tropical storm "Melissa" has formed in the Caribbean, which is expected to affect eastern Cuba in the next few days and strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend. Haiti has issued a hurricane warning, and Jamaica has issued a tropical storm warning. From October 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and the output increased by 2.71% month - on - month [2] Group 4: Figures and Data Sources - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and most of the data sources are from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

流动性日报 | 2025-10-22 市场流动性概况 2025-10-21，股指板块成交7535.01亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.44%；持仓金额12964.63亿元，较上一交易日变动 +3.00%；成交持仓比为58.11%。 国债板块成交3559.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.52%；持仓金额8228.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.34%；成交持 仓比为43.52%。 基本金属板块成交2850.28亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.99%；持仓金额5210.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.29%；成 交持仓比为60.62%。 贵金属板块成交11144.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.30%；持仓金额5259.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.15%；成 交持仓比为258.24%。 能源化工板块成交3854.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+5.74%；持仓金额4422.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.49%；成 交持仓比为70.19%。 农产品板块成交2977.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.71%；持仓金额5685.41亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.04%；成交 持仓比为45.48%。 黑色建材板块成交2160. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-22 氧化铝价格或已进入筑底阶段 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20970元/吨，较上一交易日变化40元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20850元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-110元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20870元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化15元/吨至-85元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-21日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于20965元/吨，较上一交易日变化35元/吨，最 高价达21005元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交108173手，全天交易日持仓234936手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.5万吨，较上一期变化-0.2万吨，仓单库存69397 吨，较上一交易日变化-550吨，LME铝库存484125吨，较上一交易日变化-3000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2865元/吨，山东价格录得2830元/吨，河南价格录得 2885元/吨，广西价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].