1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Suspended 2. Core View of the Report This week, the Shanghai copper price showed a fluctuating downward trend, mainly due to the widening of the spread between Comex and LME under the influence of Trump's tariff policy, which led to a decline in the copper price in non - US markets. As a result, the domestic copper price was temporarily suppressed, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for now [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 77,810 yuan/ton and closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, a - 0.18% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 77,800 yuan/ton and closed at 77,620 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 60 - 150 yuan/ton to the current 2508 contract, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 77,950 - 78,090 yuan/ton. The intraday trading weakened, and the spot premium may further decline today [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: Fed Governor Kugler said the Fed should not cut interest rates "for some time" due to the impact of Trump's tariffs on consumer prices. The US unemployment rate is 4.1%, and inflation is above the 2% target [3]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 0.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: In the second quarter of 2025, Rio Tinto's copper production reached 229,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company maintained its annual production target of 780,000 - 850,000 tons [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: In the second quarter, 29Metals' Golden Grove project in Western Australia produced 5,600 tons of copper, lower than the previous year. China's refined copper production in June 2025 was 1.302 million tons, a 14.2% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Consumption**: China's copper product output in June 2025 was 2.214 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 10,525 tons to 122,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 8,103 tons to 42,139 tons. On July 14, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 143,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Table of Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: The premium of SMM 1 copper on July 18, 2025, was 105, with changes compared to the previous day, week, and month [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 122,150 tons, SHFE inventory was 81,462 tons, and COMEX inventory was 217,212 tons on July 18, 2025 [27]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 42,139 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 10.19% on July 18, 2025 [28]. - **Arbitrage**: The import profit was - 2 on July 18, 2025, and there were also data on other arbitrage indicators [28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall grain production in the year has a good foundation. Summer grain production achieved stable yields and a bumper harvest, with a national summer grain output of 299.48 billion catties, the second - highest in history after last year [1]. - The retail price threshold for the super - luxury car consumption tax has been adjusted to 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) [1]. - Guangzhou is soliciting opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different measures based on the housing provident fund personal housing loan rate [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry** - The scope of super - luxury cars subject to consumption tax has been adjusted to include vehicles with a retail price of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and above of various power types [1]. - Summer grain production overcame drought in some areas, achieving stable yields and laying a solid foundation for annual grain production [1]. - **Service Industry** - Guangzhou is seeking public opinions on the implementation measures for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans, with different control measures based on the loan - to - deposit ratio [2]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - International oil prices are fluctuating [3]. - Egg prices are rising [3]. - **Mid - stream** - The operating rates of polyester and PX are stable [4]. - **Downstream** - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are stable at a low level [5]. - The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [5]. C. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - Different industries have different credit spread values and trends. For example, the credit spread of the real estate industry decreased from 101.86 last week to 99.89 this week, with a quantile of 2.70 [48]. D. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Various industries have different price trends. For instance, the spot price of corn in the agricultural industry was 2327.1 yuan/ton on July 17, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%, while the spot price of eggs was 5.8 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 4.91% [49].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 铝锭库存小幅回落对铝价形成支撑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20570元/吨，较上一交易日上涨50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨10元/吨至110元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20440元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 上涨20元/吨至-30元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20550元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至85元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-17日沪铝主力合约开于20415元/吨，收于20415元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨15元/ 吨，涨幅0.07%，最高价达20465元/吨，最低价达到20390元/吨。全天交易日成交102174手，较上一交易日增 加28925手，全天交易日持仓268542手，较上一交易日增加74084手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-17，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存49.2万吨。截止2025-07-17，LME铝库存427200 吨，较前一交易日增加3675吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-17 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得 ...

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit on rallies [3] Core Viewpoints - Some urea plants restarted, leading to a continuous increase in capacity utilization and a rising supply pressure. Production remains at a high level. It is currently the peak agricultural demand season, with agricultural demand continuing to advance. Compound fertilizer production has increased, and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizers has begun, resulting in a phased increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with melamine production decreasing month-on-month and the panel industry sluggish. Urea exports are improving, with increased port collection intentions, leading to a continuous increase in port inventories and a decrease in upstream factory inventories [2] Section Summaries 1. Urea Basis Structure - Analyzes the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and the price spreads between different periods [7][8][9] 2. Urea Production - Focuses on the weekly urea production and the loss of production due to plant maintenance [17] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production cost, spot production profit, and capacity utilization rates of coal-based and gas-based urea [20][27] 4. Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - Examines the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic and Southeast Asia, as well as the export profit and the profit on the futures market [29][31][40] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Considers the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine production, and the number of days of pending orders [51][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Looks at the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract [49][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU neutral, NR neutral, BR neutral [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent warming of the macro - atmosphere and rain disturbances in rubber main - producing areas have driven the continuous rebound of futures prices. With China in the seasonal import off - season in July and Thai processing plants still in a loss situation for shipping to Chinese ports, the domestic import pressure is expected to ease. After the end of semi - steel tire maintenance, the operating rate has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern corresponding to NR has improved slightly. However, due to the increase in global natural rubber supply and lackluster demand, the rebound space of rubber futures prices is limited [4][5] - The price of upstream raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm in the short term as domestic butadiene supply has decreased slightly, port inventory has continued to decline, and the restart of downstream maintenance devices has boosted butadiene demand. With butadiene rubber in a loss situation, the strength of the raw material end is expected to drive the continued rebound of butadiene rubber. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase next week as the number of maintenance devices decreases, and tire demand has increased month - on - month, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. It is expected that butadiene rubber will follow the upstream butadiene raw material and run strongly this week [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,585 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,710 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - In June 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 599,000 tons, a 27.2% increase from the same period in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the total imports were 4.075 million tons, a 24.1% increase from the previous year [2] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 751,700 tons, an 11.8% increase from the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, an 18.1% year - on - year increase and a 7.6% month - on - month increase. In the first half of the year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a 10.8% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 15 yuan/ton (+35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 245 yuan/ton (+45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,694 yuan/ton (+89.97), the NR basis was 135 yuan/ton (+1), full - latex was 14,650 yuan/ton (+200), mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton (+120), 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), STR20 was quoted at 1,780 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between full - latex and 3L was 100 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene was 2,420 yuan/ton (+120) [3] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 65.90 baht/kg (+0.25), Thai glue was 54.50 baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 48.55 baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.95 baht/kg (unchanged) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+0.87%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+1,811), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 636,383 tons (+4,006), the RU futures inventory was 188,690 tons (- 160), and the NR futures inventory was 36,994 tons (+7,258) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On July 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+100), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 for butadiene rubber was 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong private butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 977 yuan/ton (+90) [3] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 65.21% (- 0.32%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+330), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3]

流动性日报 | 2025-07-18 市场流动性概况 2025-07-17，股指板块成交5374.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.34%；持仓金额10821.84亿元，较上一交易日变动 +2.76%；成交持仓比为49.59%。 国债板块成交2606.24亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.56%；持仓金额9072.33亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.20%；成交持 仓比为29.01%。 基本金属板块成交4441.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.92%；持仓金额4882.71亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.99%； 成交持仓比为122.02%。 贵金属板块成交5384.61亿元，较上一交易日变动+36.71%；持仓金额4535.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.45%；成 交持仓比为118.61%。 能源化工板块成交4389.77亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.20%；持仓金额4420.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为73.99%。 农产品板块成交3415.00亿元，较上一交易日变动+33.30%；持仓金额5874.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.82%；成 交持仓比为54.68%。 黑色建材板块成交2586 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Citigroup upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "Overweight," with a year - end target of 25,000 for the Hang Seng Index and 4,200 for the CSI 300 Index [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets: Driven by strong growth in US retail sales data in June and a continuous decline in the number of initial jobless claims, the three major US stock indexes closed higher [2] - Domestic markets: The A - share market continues its structural market characteristics. The national defense and military industry sector leads the gains, highlighting the performance - driven main line. Sectors with performance support such as rare earth permanent magnets, biomedicine, and consumer electronics are expected to regain upward momentum based on fundamental advantages after a short - term technical correction [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,516.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 10,873.62 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.76% to 2,269.33 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68% to 4,034.49 points, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.23% to 2,744.26 points, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.08% to 6,082.46 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14% to 6,535.67 points [12] - **Transaction Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded to 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - **Charts**: Include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IH and IF contracts increased synchronously. The trading volume of IC and IM contracts decreased, while the open interest increased [1][16] - **Basis**: The basis of the current - month contracts basically converged. The report details the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [1][36][38] - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts, including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc., along with their changes [46][47] - **Charts**: Include charts of contract open interest, open - interest ratios, foreign - funded net open positions, basis, and inter - period spreads for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-18 成本端指引不明确，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、7月17日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3628元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨11元/吨，涨幅 0.3%；持仓226709手，环比上涨1229手，成交185709手，环比上升77446手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3660—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3630元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余区域沥青现货价格均以持稳为主。目前原油价格震荡运行，强现实、 弱预期的格局导致市场缺乏明确趋势，对沥青而言成本端方向指引有限。就沥青自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱 格局延续，库存处于低位，市场矛盾相对不突出，现货端观望情绪较为浓厚。往前看沥青供需两端均存在增长预 期，需要关注库存趋势的变化情况。 策略 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - The polyolefin market continues fundamental trading, with weak and stable prices. During the upstream petrochemical plant maintenance season, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization decreases, and new capacity continues to be released, so the overall supply maintains an increasing trend. Enterprises' inventory accumulates, and the destocking rate is slow. Downstream demand remains in the off - season, the terminal operating rate remains low, and the overall operating rate changes little. Purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and there is little hope for improvement in the short term. International oil prices and propane prices continue to be weak, and are expected to remain weak, with weak cost support, and PDH - made PP profit remains slightly profitable [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7215元/吨（+1），PP主力合约收盘价为7020元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7150元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7190元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-11），LL华东基差为 - 25元/吨（-31），PP华东基差为50元/吨（-17） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.2%（+0.4%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.7%）；PE油制生产利润为171.7元/吨（+4.6），PP油制生产利润为 - 208.3元/吨（+4.6），PDH制PP生产利润为301.8元/吨（+56.9） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（+76.3），PP进口利润为 - 672.8元/吨（+0.0），PP出口利润为34.2美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE下游农膜开工率为12.5%（-0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.6%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.2%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given text

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 沪镍弱势震荡，现货升贴水相对平稳 镍品种 市场分析 2025-07-17日沪镍主力合约2508开于119700元/吨，收于119880元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.60%，当日成交量 为85829手，持仓量为53426手。 沪镍主力合约2508小幅震荡，日线收阳线。08主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有较大幅度的减少，持仓量对比 上个交易日则有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积继续收窄，已接近转绿边缘，短周期内回调 的需求仍存。日线在6月23日的117000附近出现底背离现象，中长线上我们预估117000一线是强支撑位。现货市场 方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日报价下调1600元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有所下调。近期精炼镍盘面步入横 盘阶段，向下的力度在增加，精炼镍现货成交整体一般，基本面供应过剩格局不改，近期升贴水有所回落，但升 贴水仍处于高位，因此现货价对盘面下方有支撑力。其中金川镍升水变化50元/吨至2050元/吨，进口镍升水变化0 元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 0元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为20958（-91.0）吨，LME镍库存为 ...