新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-21 现货成交一般，多晶硅盘面回调 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-10-20，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8500元/吨，最后收于8565元/吨，较前一日结算变化（75） 元/吨，变化（0.88）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓114236手，2025-10-20仓单总数为49303手，较前一日变化-811 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年9月工业硅出口量在7.02万吨，环比减少8%同比增加8%。2025年1-9月份工业硅 累计出口量在56.16万吨，同比增加2%。进口方面：2025年9月中国金属硅进口量在0.19万吨。2025年1-9月累计进 口量在0.86万吨，同比减少64%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价111 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-10-21 巴西播种良好，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9318.00元/吨，环比变化+10元，幅度+0.11%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8298.00 元/吨，环比变化+42.00元，幅度+0.51%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9918.00元/吨，环比变化+57.00元，幅度+0.58%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9290.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.87%，现货基差P01+-28.00，环比变 化+70.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8510.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元/吨，幅度+0.59%，现货基差Y01+212.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10230.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.59%，现货基差 OI01+312.00，环比变化+3.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：咨询机构AgRural周一表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆播种率已经达到预期的24%。 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油出口量为1044784吨，较上月同期出口的10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - China's economic growth slowed in September, with a widening gap between domestic and external demand. Domestic economic data in August showed signs of weakness, while exports in September were resilient. The M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. Amid increasing external tariff pressure, China has introduced frequent growth - stabilizing policies [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified, and there is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea from October 28th to November 1st [2] - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown, as the market has not fully priced in the severity of the issue [3] - In the commodity market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the near term. Each commodity sector has its own characteristics and risks [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption." In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a new low for the year. External tariff pressure increased, and China introduced growth - stabilizing policies. The Third Quarter GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% for the first three quarters. Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year - on - year, while social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3%. Fixed - asset investment continued to decline [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have escalated. The delay in Sino - US tariff implementation will expire on November 10th. The US has taken a series of measures such as adding Chinese enterprises to the entity list and imposing tariffs on imports, and China has responded with counter - measures. There is a risk of tariff escalation before the APEC Summit in South Korea [2] - The US government shutdown issue persists. The Republican temporary appropriation bill failed to advance in the Senate, and economic data releases have been delayed. The market has not fully priced in the severity of the shutdown [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply; the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals; precious metals have short - term price volatility risks but long - term buying opportunities [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Social consumer goods retail总额 in September increased by 3% year - on - year. The national urban survey unemployment rate in September was 5.2%. The stock market showed mixed trends, with coal and gas sectors rising and precious metals sector falling. Sino - US officials agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses starting from November 1st. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached an agreement on coalition government [6]

下游订单情况：生产企业预售量55.6万吨（-2.8）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-10-21 PVC出口仍保持韧性 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4702元/吨（+14）；华东基差-72元/吨（-14）;华南基差-2元/吨（-14）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4630元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+0）；电石利润-12元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-713元/吨（-91）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-553元/吨（-14）；PVC出口利润-0.6美元/吨（-3.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存36.0万吨（-2.3）；PVC社会库存55.6万吨（-0.1）；PVC电石法开工率74.73%（-7.03%）； PVC乙烯法开工率76.10%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率75.14%（-5.66%）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2380元/吨（+36）；山东32%液碱基差183元/吨（-67）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（-10）；山东50%液碱报价128 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For apples, currently, the late Fuji apples are sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it's difficult to organize a large quantity of red apples. The acquisition period may be shortened. It's expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with a significant price gap between high - quality and general - quality apples [3] - For red dates, if the yield and quality fall short of expectations, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will face a situation of limited upward movement and sufficient downward support, showing a volatile pattern [8] Group 3: Summary According to the Apple - Related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8865 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton or 2.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1365, down 332 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 565, down 240 from the previous day [1] - Market situation: The coloring progress of late Fuji is accelerating, and the supply in the production areas is increasing. There is a polarized market, with the price of high - quality goods remaining stable and firm. Different production areas have different price ranges due to quality differences, and many merchants in Shandong are flowing to the western and Liaoning production areas [1][2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose significantly. The coloring of late Fuji in the spot production areas is accelerating, and the supply is increasing. The price of high - quality goods is stable and firm. Last week, the supply of new - season late Fuji in the western production areas increased, and the price polarization was obvious. The price of high - quality goods is strong, while the price of general - quality goods is chaotic. The Shandong production area is still waiting for coloring, and merchants are flowing to other areas. This week, the supply of late Fuji in the eastern and western regions is increasing, and the price polarization is obvious. If there is a rush to buy high - quality goods, the price will remain stable and firm, while the price of general - quality goods may fall due to increased supply [2] Strategy - The strategy for apples is neutral. It is expected that the price of high - quality apples will remain stable and firm, with obvious price polarization [3] Group 4: Summary According to the Red - Date - Related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11385 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 1785, up 35 from the previous day [4] - Market situation: The new - season red dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the harvest time may be about one week earlier than last year. Merchants from the inland areas are going to the production area for the new season. The tree - ordering in the Hotan area is coming to an end, and the orchard - ordering in the Aksu, Qiemo, and Alar areas is progressing rapidly. The new prices are not yet mainstream. The supply in the Hebei sales area has increased slightly, and downstream merchants are waiting and seeing the quality and price of the new season and making purchases as needed. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in the short term [5][6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price showed a volatile downward trend yesterday. The new - season red dates in the Xinjiang main production area may be harvested one week earlier, and inland merchants are preparing for acquisition. The tree - ordering in Hotan is at the end, and orchard - ordering in other areas is fast. The new prices are not yet mainstream. The weather is favorable for improving the quality of red dates, which is better than last year. Last week, the trading atmosphere in the sales - area spot market was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was a bit light. Affected by the preparation for the new season, some merchants sold their inventories to recover funds, and the inventory reduction of 36 sample points accelerated, but the overall inventory pressure still exists, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - overdraft, and a reduction in production is a normal expectation. It is estimated that the new - season yield is between 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - The strategy for red dates is neutral. If the yield and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the futures price of red dates will be in a volatile pattern. The new - season red dates in the main production area have not been harvested in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the harvesting work will start after the Frost's Descent. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The crude oil end still exerts pressure, and the fuel oil market shows a differentiated structure. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stronger than the low - sulfur fuel oil market, but both face certain uncertainties and resistance [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.08% at 2,646 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.55% at 3,079 yuan/ton [1]. - Due to the loosening fundamentals and potential tariff frictions, the crude oil price has been weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. There are many uncertainties in the macro and geopolitical aspects, so caution is needed regarding the short - term trend of the crude oil end [1]. - In terms of fuel oil fundamentals, there is a differentiation with high - sulfur fuel oil being stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is relatively firm. Russia's supply is restricted, and the continuous drone attacks in Ukraine have led to more unexpected refinery overhauls. New sanctions from the UK on October 15 and the US's intensified sanctions on Iran have also affected their oil trade. However, the upward drivers of the high - sulfur oil market are also limited based on current valuation and supply - demand expectations [1]. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has been weak. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and the market supply is abundant. In the context of intensified trade disputes, the shipping and marine fuel demand face potential risks, and the actual marine fuel consumption has been weak. The latest September sales volume in Singapore decreased by 4% month - on - month. The low - sulfur fuel oil downstream demand is more concentrated and more sensitive to tariff frictions. With the restart of Dangote refinery's RFCC unit, the local supply pressure is expected to ease [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [3]. - Cross - variety: No recommended strategy [3]. - Cross - period: No recommended strategy [3]. - Spot - futures: No recommended strategy [3]. - Options: No recommended strategy [3].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-10-21 市场成交偏弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾不减，玻碱弱势下行 市场分析 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化、玻璃产线点火及产区供给扰动等。 双硅：企业维持亏损，供给压制价格 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡偏弱，日内成交活跃。现货方面，下游采购情绪谨慎，市场成交重心下移。 供需与逻辑：玻璃供给维持低位回升趋势，中游贸易库存高企且投机需求同步走弱，去库压力加大。伴随消费旺 季即将结束，且个别产线仍存复产预期，预计玻璃需求或将进一步走弱，持续关注玻璃产线变动情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡运行，成交活跃。现货方面，市场成交整体一般，下游采购情绪谨慎，低价刚 需成交为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱供需矛盾依旧不减，供应处于高位且仍存在增长预期。需求端保持韧性，去库压力贯穿全年， 持续关注纯碱供应变化及下游需求情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 硅锰方面，昨日锰硅期货主力合约震荡上涨，现货方面，硅锰市场表现尚可，周初市场观望情绪浓，6517北方市 场价格5630-5680元/吨，南方市场价格5650-5700元/吨。 逻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

甲醇日报 | 2025-10-21 周初内地价格继续回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润605元/吨（-43）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2010元/吨（-43），内蒙北线基差344元/吨（-37），内蒙南线2050元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2295元/吨（-23），鲁 南基差229元/吨（-17）；河南2160元/吨（-5），河南基差94元/吨（+1）；河北2210元/吨（+0），河北基差204元/吨（+6）。 隆众内地工厂库存359900吨（+20500），西北工厂库存223000吨（+19000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单228910吨 （+113670），西北工厂待发订单136730吨（+73530）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2275元/吨（+3），太仓基差9元/吨（+9），CFR中国261美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-10元/吨（+1）， 常州甲醇2355元/吨；广东甲醇2255元/吨（+0），广东基差-11元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1491360吨（-51870）， 江苏港口库存773000吨（-20000），浙江港口库存2 ...

LPG市场反弹后阻力仍存，外盘价格再度下跌。现货方面，昨日国内主流价格下调，下游逢低采购，观望情绪较 强，交投氛围清淡。供应方面，海外供应相对充裕，且存在进一步增长可能；国内商品供应小幅波动，整体维持 充裕。需求方面，近期气温持续下降，燃烧端逢低采购。深加工需求变动幅度有限，PDH开工率维持72%左右。在 10月CP价格下调、进口成本回落后，化工利润有望边际改善，尤其是LPG对石脑油比价优势将刺激裂解装置的部 分原料切换，或为市场提供一定下方支撑。 策略 单边：中性，短期观望为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 油价波动、宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-21 市场缺乏利好，供过于求格局延续 市场分析 1、\t10月20日地区价格：山东市场，4050-4090；东北市场，3910-4210；华北市场，4050-4450；华东市场，4155-4260； 沿江市场，4470-4730；西北市场，4100-4200；华南市场，4390-4498。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年11月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷529美元/吨， ...