新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-27 铝价高位压力有所显现 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24030元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-160元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23940元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-250元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24070元/吨，较上一交易日变化-80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-120元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-26日沪铝主力合约开于24460元/吨，收于24215元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，最 高价达24570元/吨，最低价达到24095元/吨。全天交易日成交510890手，全天交易日持仓322087手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-26，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存77.7万吨，较上一期变化3.4万吨，仓单库存141725 吨，较上一交易日变化573吨，LME铝库存505275吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-26SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2640 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The chemical sector has a general upward trend, with funds flowing into the undervalued chemical sector due to inflation expectations. The port inventory of pure benzene did not continue to decline and slightly rebounded at the beginning of the week. Although the arrival pressure eased, downstream提货 decreased. The overall downstream start - up is okay, with the start - up of non - styrene pure benzene downstream increasing. The domestic pure benzene start - up further decreased, reducing domestic supply. For styrene, with low domestic start - up, the inventory was low initially, but the port inventory rebounded slightly due to increased arrivals. The downstream start - up of styrene is still okay, and the inventory pressure has further eased [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 53 yuan/ton (+63), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 115 yuan/ton (+45 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 203 yuan/ton (+91 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profit, Internal - External Spread - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 195 dollars/ton (+10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 199 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton). The US - South Korea spread is 95.0 dollars/ton (-1.0 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 682 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.80 tons), and the start - up rate further decreased [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 100,600 tons (+7,100 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 62,300 tons (+3,400 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.6% (-1.2%) [1]. 3.4 Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profit - EPS: The production profit is - 26 yuan/ton (-84 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 58.71% (+4.65%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 446 yuan/ton (-54 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 57.30% (-0.10%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 1353 yuan/ton (+82 yuan/ton), and the start - up rate is 66.80% (-3.00%) [2]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profit - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1130 yuan/ton (-115), and the start - up rate is 76.17% (-1.00%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 803 yuan/ton (+249), and the phenol start - up rate is 85.50% (-3.50%) [1]. - Aniline: The production profit is 1241 yuan/ton (+70), and the start - up rate is 87.61% (+10.51%) [1]. - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 950 yuan/ton (+97), and the start - up rate is 69.10% (+3.80%) [1].

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-27 超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（ ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-27 PF方面，现货生产利润-71元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。直纺涤短跟随原料大幅上涨，但需求疲软，涨幅不及原料。负荷 方面个别有小幅提升，大多维持平稳运行，涨价带动销售，短纤库存去化明显。需求方面，纯涤纱及涤棉纱部分 适度跟涨，纯涤纱销售顺畅，库存去化；涤棉纱销售适度好转，库存小幅下降，现金流亏损扩大。 PTA弱现实强预期，关注伊朗局势 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期仍围绕伊朗局势波动。短期中东局势依然紧张，美国持续在中东地区布兵，对伊朗的打击可能箭在 弦上，伊朗不同于委内，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木兹海峡，因此油价对伊 朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞拉。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN358美元/吨(环比变动+17.75美元/吨）。近期资本市场对化工产业看好，而PX和PTA方 面因基本面的支撑，资金介入偏积极，PXN上涨。现货方面，PX现货浮动表现较弱。近期PX效益提升带来供应进 一步增加预期，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，同时需求端检修计划陆续兑现，现实基本面偏弱。但PX中期预 期依然较好，利润修复会带来PX二季度检修计划取消或推迟的逻辑难 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [8] 2. Core View of the Report In the context of strong precious metals, the non - ferrous sector is unlikely to experience a significant correction. Even at the end of the year with high inventories, copper prices mainly fluctuate strongly. As the Spring Festival approaches, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. For enterprises with hedging needs, if copper prices hover around 100,000 yuan/ton, it is recommended to conduct hedging operations on a two - week usage cycle and not to build excessive virtual inventories for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes On January 26, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 102,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,880 yuan/ton, a 0.53% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 103,260 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 103,460 yuan/ton, a 0.68% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 300 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 230 yuan, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 102,200 to 102,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that the spot discount will remain under pressure. If downstream purchasing willingness remains weak, the market may continue the pattern of deep discounts and low trading volumes [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary On Monday, the precious metals market fluctuated sharply. COMEX silver once soared by over 16%, and spot silver rose by nearly 14%, but then both fell back. COMEX gold and spot gold once broke through the 5000 - dollar and 5100 - dollar marks, and finally closed up 0.5%. Spot palladium once rose 7% but ended up falling over 3%. Geopolitically, the European Parliament has not decided whether to resume the approval process of the EU - US trade agreement. Economically, in November 2025, US durable goods orders increased by 5.3% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations [3] 3.2 Mining End On the evening of January 23, Zangge Mining announced that the second - phase project of Julong Copper Mine of its subsidiary was officially put into operation on January 23, 2026. After reaching production capacity, the annual ore mining and processing scale will increase from 45 million tons to 105 million tons, and the annual output of copper ore will increase from 190,000 tons in 2025 to about 300,000 - 350,000 tons [4] 3.3 Smelting and Import From the close of trading on January 28, 2026, the daily price limit range of listed international copper futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the trading margin ratio for hedging positions to 10%, and the general trading margin ratio to 11%. Last week, LME copper inventories accelerated accumulation, reaching 171,700 tons, the highest in eight months. SHFE copper inventories also continued to accumulate, reaching 225,937 tons, the highest in nine and a half months [5] 3.4 Consumption In the past week, the operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, a 10.51 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 16.03 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 58.71%, a 2.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 15.87 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. It is expected that next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will rise to 71.20%, and that of copper cable enterprises to 60.23% [6][7] 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts changed by 3450 tons to 170,525 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 1479 tons to 145,314 tons. On January 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week [7]

果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-27 苹果需求持续偏弱，红枣关注市场走势 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9466元/吨，较前一日变动-69元/吨，幅度-0.72%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1466，较前一日变动+69；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1066，较前一日变动+69。 近期市场资讯，产区春节备货陆续进行，整体氛围仍显不温不火，目前行情整体维持稳定，果农货成交略有转好 但仍成交量仍有限。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调 果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星包装，少量75#货源、三级货源出库 为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价 格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农半商品5-6元/斤，果农一般通货出库价格3.7-5 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-27 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3550元/吨；山东，3080—3240元/吨；华南，3200—3300元/吨； 华东，3160—3230元/吨。 近期中东局势显著升温，美国上周五加大了对伊朗的施压，对运输伊朗石油的船只实施更多制裁，并宣布一支舰 队正驶向这个中东国家。伊朗不同于委内瑞拉，由于其地缘位置的重要性，可能波及周边重要产油国以及霍尔木 兹海峡，因此油市对伊朗局势的敏感性远大于委内瑞拉。市场担忧美国、以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，从而造成 大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。 昨日山东、华东、华南沥青现货价格均出现上涨，市场当前主要驱动来自于成本端，盘面在定价委油供应收紧预 期后一度进入震荡阶段。近日地缘局势升温，稀释沥青贴水远月报价显著上涨，国内产业端远期备货积极性提升， 带动盘面再度走强。目前来看，在美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧 的预期已在逐步兑现，沥青成本端支撑较为坚挺，但终端需求的疲软与替代原料的可得性则将制约市场的上方空 间。 策略 原油情绪溢价上涨，成本端支撑稳固 市场分析 1 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-27 股指震荡调整，关注抛售行为 市场分析 关注消费政策。宏观方面，加快培育服务消费新增长点相关政策文件近日将推出。商务部相关负责人介绍，将出 台扩大入境消费的政策措施；启动建设国家数字贸易示范区；优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家电等大宗 耐用商品消费；开展汽车流通消费改革试点；国家层面的海外综合服务大平台近期将上线。海外方面，美国2025 年11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，创六个月最大增幅，远超市场预期的增长3.7%。核心订单耐用品订单环比增长 0.5%，连续第八个月实现增长。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡调整，上证指数跌0.09%收于4132.60点，创业板指跌0.91%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，有色金属、石油石化、煤炭行业领涨，国防军工、汽车、社会服务、电子行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交额为3.2万亿元。中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议强调，逐步拓展宏观审慎政策覆盖范 围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定。海外 方面，美国三大股指集体收涨，道指涨0.64%报49412.4点。 IC增 ...

EG港口库存累积，负荷进一步提升 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3994元/吨（较前一交易日变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.08%），EG华东市场现货价3885 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+93元/吨，幅度+2.45%），EG华东现货基差-120元/吨（环比-2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-40美元/吨（环比+20美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-752 元/吨（环比+114元/吨）。 化工日报 | 2026-01-27 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为85.8万吨（环比+6.3万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港实际到港总数17.1万吨，副 港到港量0万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数14.7万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体略偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下 累库压力仍大，但卫星计划2月转产，关注价格上涨后乙烯下游各品种估值的相对变化；海外供应方面， ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 备货需求逐步释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场分析 豆粕库存持续消耗，但仍明显高于历史同期，大豆库存同样维持高位。受到美豆提振的影响，国内豆粕价格短期 同步偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压力仍存，随着未来新季大豆上市供应压力逐步释放，预计豆粕价格仍将偏弱运 行。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美收获情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2769元/吨，较前日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2605合约2269元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+401，较前日变动-28；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+301，较前日变动-18； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+311，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，1月23日，美国农业部公布的出口销售报告 ...