农产品日报 | 2025-07-22 现货价格整体上涨，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 政策变化 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3069元/吨，较前日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.43%；菜粕2509合约2727元/吨，较前 日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-99， 较前日变动-13；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-179，较前日变动-3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-209，较前日变动-13。福建地区菜粕现货价格2720 元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09-7，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年7月份巴西大豆出口量1219万吨，高于一周前预估的1193 万吨，低于6月份的出口量1350万吨；预计2025年巴西大豆出口量1.1亿吨，同比增加约1300万吨，超过2023年的历 史峰值1.013亿吨。美国全国海洋大气管理局预报显示，7月22-26日期间，美国大豆主产区北部地区 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-22 规模厂缩量，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14365元/吨，较前交易日变动+230.00元/吨，幅度+1.63%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格14.44元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+75，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.73元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH09+365，较前交易日变动-170；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.62元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-745，较前交易日变动-130。 风险 无 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘鸡蛋 2509合约3636元/500 千克，较前交易日变动+41.00元，幅度+1.14%。现货方面，辽宁地 区鸡蛋现货价格2.90元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.10，现货基差 JD09-736，较前交易日变动+59；山东地区鸡蛋现货 价格3.35元/斤，较前交易日变动+0.20，现货基差 JD09-286，较前交易日变动+159；河北地区鸡蛋现货价格3.07元 /斤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. The good performance of net export data mainly stems from the Shanghai - London ratio limiting imports rather than outstanding export data [3][43]. - In 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume. Assuming the extreme scenario of re - export trade, the US's indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8%. Thus, the US's maximum dependence on Chinese aluminum products could reach 11.5% [4][19][43]. - If the re - export trade of Chinese aluminum products to the US is completely restricted, based on 2025 data, direct exports to the US would decline by 1.8%, and the consumption of aluminum elements in China would only decline by 0.2% [5][24][43]. - Regarding the 24% tariff window on China, starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Assuming the fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [5][40][45]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. Even with the pre - consumption caused by the rush to export, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries [6][27][45]. - The pre - consumption caused by the rush to export may lead to a decline in later consumption, but the steepness of the decline may be less than expected. In the context of limited supply, as long as the year - on - year consumption of aluminum increases, the overall positive trend remains unchanged [6][45] Summary by Directory Export Data Analysis - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 760,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year, with positive year - on - year growth from January to April. This was mainly due to the decrease in net imports of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy affected by the Shanghai - London ratio. From January to May, the cumulative net exports of aluminum products were 2.12 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6%. The cancellation of export tax rebates for Chinese aluminum products since November 2024 had a substantial impact on exports. However, the monthly decline in net exports of aluminum products in the first half of the year narrowed, which was related to the rush to export during the tariff window. Due to the additional tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminum imports, the actual export was more difficult, and the rush to export was mainly in the form of end - products [12]. US's Direct and Indirect Dependence on Chinese Aluminum Products - Using sample data from 2021 - 2024, which accounted for about 24% of the total export volume, it was estimated that in 2024, direct exports to the US accounted for 3.7% of the total export volume, and indirect imports from China accounted for 7.8% under the extreme re - export scenario, with a maximum dependence of 11.5%. If the US imposes tariffs globally, the impact on China's aluminum export consumption is limited under the condition that US consumption does not decline. The biggest impact comes from the re - inflation problem caused by tariffs. Chinese aluminum products can be compensated through re - export trade. From January to May 2025, China's total exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 1.67 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% (130,000 tons), mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The direct export to the US in 2024 was 61,000 tons, while from January to May 2025, it was only 11,000 tons, and the proportion of direct exports to the US dropped to 1.9%. The direct impact of tariffs on exports to the US was only 1.8%. Since the US import data for 2025 has not been released, the impact of re - export has not been evaluated [15][19]. - Based on the aluminum element calculation, in 2024, China's aluminum element supply was 55.75 million tons, and exports accounted for about 12% of China's aluminum consumption. If the US completely stops relying on Chinese aluminum products, the consumption of aluminum elements in China will decline by 1.4%. In reality, on the basis of stable US consumption, re - export trade is difficult to restrict, and US trade actions alone are unlikely to significantly impact China's aluminum consumption [20][24]. Attention to Third - World Consumption Growth after Tariff - Affected Rush to Export - According to customs data, from January to June, China's cumulative exports of automobiles (including chassis) reached 3.473 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 18.6%. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the cumulative exports of automobiles from January to June were 3.078 million units, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3%. Both data sources show a monthly growth trend in exports, and the monthly exports of components also show a recovery trend [27]. - There is no need to overly focus on the US's impact on China's consumption. The export price of Yiwu small commodities remains high, and although the US price in the container shipping price index has dropped significantly, the comprehensive price index is still good. Therefore, attention should be paid to the consumption resilience of other developed regions and the consumption growth of third - world countries. From January to May, China's cumulative exports of wire and cable were 1.23 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rise, showing a continuous growth trend in recent years. The rapid development of developing countries will drive the export and consumption of China's infrastructure products [27]. Rush - to - Export Time Point under US Tariff Window - Since January 20, 2025, when Trump officially took office as the US President, the tariff war began. With the implementation of tariff executive orders such as those related to fentanyl, the US imposed a maximum tariff of 145% on Chinese goods. After the Geneva negotiations on May 12th, 91% of the reciprocal tariffs were cancelled, and the 24% tariff on China was suspended for 90 days, reducing the tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US to 30%. However, for aluminum products, due to the US's consecutive increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, even after the Geneva talks, Chinese aluminum products still face a high tariff of 104% when exported to the US [40]. - Starting from May 14th, if goods arrive in the US and clear customs before August 11th, they can be exempted from the 24% tariff. Considering the fastest shipping time from China's coastal areas to the US West Coast (about 12 days) and the estimated fastest clearance time of 15 days, China's rush to export can last until the end of July [40]. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the export situation of Chinese aluminum products, the US's dependence on Chinese aluminum products, the impact of tariff policies, the rush - to - export time point, and the focus on consumption in other regions [43][45].

期货研究报告|LNG 专题报告 2025-07-18 中东专题系列之一：卡塔尔天然气市场展望 研究院 能源化工组 研究员 潘翔 康远宁 0755-23991175 kangyuanning@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 内容摘要 ■ 资源禀赋全球领先，出口格局以卡塔尔为核心扩张延伸 中东地区拥有全球超 40%的探明天然气储量，以卡塔尔、伊朗、阿联酋为代表的产气 国构成核心输出力量。2024 年卡塔尔出口约为 7950 万吨 LNG，长期维持全球前三， North Field 扩建项目（NFE/NFS）将进一步巩固其主导地位。阿联酋、阿曼等国家在 保持稳定出口基础上，亦推进新终端与合同多元化战略。 ■ 进口结构高度依赖外部供给，脆弱性与调峰需求并存 包括约旦、科威特、土耳其在内的多国缺乏经济性气源，天然气消费严重依赖 LNG 进 口以满足发电与工业需求。该类国家普遍采用 FSRU 或岸基终端，进口以现货和短约 为主，对价格波动与地缘政治风险高度敏感。埃及虽存在再出口能力，但其国内产量 下降叠加夏季发电制冷需求增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On July 17, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.113 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.4456 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1.6467 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 0.087 million contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1.537 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 0.0397 million contracts; CSI 300 index options was 0.0993 million contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 0.273 million contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.63, with a month - on - month change of - 0.20; the position PCR was 1.04, with a month - on - month change of + 0.02. Similar data for other options are also provided, including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [2] - A table presents the turnover PCR, its month - on - month change, position PCR, and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [29] Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 15.05%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06%; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 15.43%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.23%; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 19.41%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.32%; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 18.17%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.47%; ChiNext ETF options was 22.74%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.36%; SSE 50 index options was 17.23%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.49%; CSI 300 index options was 16.98%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.33%; and CSI 1000 index options was 20.27%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.54% [3] - A table shows the VIX and its month - on - month change for various index ETF options [43]

国债期货日报 | 2025-07-18 资金面宽松，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2）通胀： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial Silicon: Short - term watch [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in the long - term [6][8] 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon's supply - demand pattern has improved due to low开工 of northwest and southwest factories and lower - than - usual production in the southwest, with reduced inventory. The overall commodity sentiment has a positive impact, but the influence of policies on the industrial silicon industry needs attention. For polysilicon, recent price increases are driven by policies and funds. Policy implementation and price transmission need to be monitored, and it is suitable for long - term low - level long - position layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,750 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. The main contract's open interest was 381,048 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, an increase of 142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,800 yuan/ton this week, while the prices of other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable. The market's mainstream transaction center was around 10,800 yuan/ton. Although the low - price quotes in the domestic market increased slightly, the matching degree of transactions decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term watch, and short - position holders should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 43,900 yuan/ton and closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, a 7.49% increase from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 70,964 lots (71,783 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 410,795 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 36.60 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.80 yuan/kg), dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 44.50 - 49.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.25 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 GW, a decrease of 5.70%. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 5.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.10 GW, a decrease of 3.37% [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.25 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.67 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.32 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.28 yuan/piece) [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. - **Strategy** - In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions when the price is low. In the short - term, be cautiously bullish [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain; exports were under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. The government may further strengthen pro - growth policies in the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After passing the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump shifted his focus to external pressure to advance tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff events on demand expectations [2]. - Domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new - energy metal sectors, while overseas inflation expectations benefit the energy and non - ferrous sectors. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate more industrial products on dips [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in May was mixed. Investment weakened, exports were under pressure, and only consumption was resilient. China's June manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw - material industries. The growth of industrial added value and new - energy vehicle and industrial robot production was rapid in June, while the growth of social retail sales slowed down. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing declined, and overall fixed - asset investment weakened. Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium - battery, and automotive have been expected to increase, and some commodity prices have recovered [1]. - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, shifting the US from a stage of "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" to a stage of "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten" policies. The Fed may consider a rate cut, and tariff negotiations are accelerating. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved, and the energy market has a short - term end of geopolitical premium and a medium - term supply - side easing. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected. The short - term fluctuation of agricultural products is relatively limited [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to buy industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - The market opened low and closed high, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell and may impose tariffs on Japan and other countries. The eurozone's June inflation data met expectations [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-18 绝对价格：中性 目前国内矿端供应仍然相对偏紧，不过旺季需求的体现暂时并不十分明显，同时有色板块整体相对偏弱也拖累铅 价走势，因此当下操作上暂时以高抛低吸或观望为主。 期权策略：暂缓 风险 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 下游观望情绪仍然较重 铅价震荡下行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-07-17，LME铅现货升水为-31.02美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16700 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-30.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/ 吨至16725元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至16700元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-100元/吨至16725元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10250元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10500元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-07-17，沪铅主力 ...