Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report provides a liquidity overview of various market sectors on September 29, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio [1][2] Group 2: Sector - by - Sector Liquidity Details 1. Overall Sector Liquidity - Figures related to each sector's trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, etc., are presented, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][8] 2. Stock Index Sector - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume was 948.773 billion yuan, a + 25.70% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1401.24 billion yuan, a + 6.08% change; the trading - holding ratio was 68.18% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Sector - The trading volume was 400.508 billion yuan, a + 8.44% change; the holding amount was 773.263 billion yuan, a - 0.32% change; the trading - holding ratio was 52.68% [1] 4. Base Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Sector - Base metal trading volume was 368.626 billion yuan, a - 3.78% change; holding amount was 491.108 billion yuan, a - 2.99% change; trading - holding ratio was 89.33%. Precious metal trading volume was 779.433 billion yuan, a + 31.74% change; holding amount was 520.729 billion yuan, a - 2.21% change; trading - holding ratio was 214.33% [1] 5. Energy and Chemical Sector - The trading volume was 407.915 billion yuan, a + 0.29% change; the holding amount was 409.107 billion yuan, a - 3.31% change; the trading - holding ratio was 77.94% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Sector - The trading volume was 278.101 billion yuan, a - 7.58% change; the holding amount was 527.324 billion yuan, a - 3.33% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.06% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Sector - The trading volume was 270.845 billion yuan, a - 8.72% change; the holding amount was 326.976 billion yuan, a - 7.76% change; the trading - holding ratio was 87.88% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On September 29, 2025, the trading volumes of various options were as follows: 788,200 contracts for SSE 50 ETF options, 937,300 contracts for SSE 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), 1,443,500 contracts for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), 124,500 contracts for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, 1,787,700 contracts for ChiNext ETF options, 117,400 contracts for SSE 50 index options, 106,400 contracts for SSE 300 index options, and 306,600 contracts for CSI 1000 options [1]. - The detailed trading volumes (including call, put, and total) of different index ETF options on a recent day are presented in a table, with specific values for each type of option [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different options on a recent day are as follows: for SSE 50 ETF options, the turnover PCR is 0.48 (with a -0.19 change compared to the previous period), and the open - interest PCR is 0.79 (with a +0.01 change); for SSE 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR is 0.47 (-0.16 change), and the open - interest PCR is 1.08 (-0.03 change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the turnover PCR is 0.63 (-0.25 change), and the open - interest PCR is 1.28 (-0.04 change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the turnover PCR is 0.73 (+0.03 change), and the open - interest PCR is 1.16 (-0.02 change); for ChiNext ETF options, the turnover PCR is 0.59 (-0.15 change), and the open - interest PCR is 1.33 (+0.14 change); for SSE 50 index options, the turnover PCR is 0.28 (-0.07 change), and the open - interest PCR is 0.70 (+0.04 change); for SSE 300 index options, the turnover PCR is 0.30 (-0.19 change), and the open - interest PCR is 0.92 (+0.05 change); for CSI 1000 index options, the turnover PCR is 0.67 (-0.42 change), and the open - interest PCR is 0.99 (+0.02 change) [2][28]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different options on a recent day are as follows: for SSE 50 ETF options, the VIX is 18.73% (with a +1.92% change compared to the previous period); for SSE 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX is 19.68% (+1.54% change); for CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), the VIX is 24.28% (-0.15% change); for Shenzhen 100 ETF options, the VIX is 27.23% (-0.07% change); for ChiNext ETF options, the VIX is 36.65% (-1.00% change); for SSE 50 index options, the VIX is 18.54% (+1.01% change); for SSE 300 index options, the VIX is 19.17% (+0.95% change); for CSI 1000 index options, the VIX is 24.70% (-0.16% change) [3][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - It is necessary to do a good job in pre - holiday risk management. During the National Day holiday, there are risks of pre - holiday adjustments in the stock index and pre - holiday depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, while there are opportunities in certain commodity sectors after the holiday. The domestic situation shows a greater gap between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the correction of the current off - peak season expectation. The inflation outlook in the US is clearer, and the Fed has restarted the interest rate cut cycle. Different commodity sectors have different characteristics and investment opportunities [1]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk and Policy Expectations**: From October 1st to 8th is the National Day holiday in China, with 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index may adjust before the holiday and rise after it, and the RMB exchange rate may depreciate before the holiday and recover after it. After the holiday, there may be opportunities in commodity sectors such as coking coal, steel ore, and non - metallic building materials. The domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weak industrial, investment, and consumption data, and increased external tariff pressure. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. The central bank also proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation. Six departments issued a steady - growth plan for the machinery industry, aiming for an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan [1]. - **US Economic Situation**: In August, the US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, the new order improved, and the price index declined again. The CPI increased year - on - year, the PPI growth slowed down, and the new non - farm employment and unemployment rate were worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The retail sales and new home sales increased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the federal funds rate target range is now 4.00% - 4.25%. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [1]. - **Commodity Analysis**: The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products can be concerned due to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be focused on. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has increased recently. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term. In the chemical industry, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short - term. Precious metals, especially gold, are expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Strategy - Allocate industrial products and precious metals on dips for commodities and stock index futures [2]. To - do News - The six - department plan aims for the machinery industry to achieve an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% from 2025 - 2026 and break through 10 trillion yuan in revenue. The NDRC will continue to implement macro - policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. On September 29th, the A - share market rose, and the financial stocks such as securities firms exploded. The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the EU will resume sanctions on Iran. Spot gold reached a new high, standing at $3,820 per ounce with a 1.6% intraday increase [4]. Macro - economy No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, etc. [5][7][10] Interest Rates No detailed analysis provided, only some relevant charts are mentioned, including the 10Y and 2Y China - US Treasury bond spreads, the US dollar exchange rate, etc. [5][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Big funds drive up the financial sector, making the market prone to rising and difficult to fall. New news about DeepSeek will push the technology sector's market to spread and extend to the software application end, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized high - quality development in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, including new development concepts, reform, opening - up, and risk prevention. Overseas, Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on overseas - made movies and furniture from non - US countries [1] - In the spot market, A - share major indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9% to 3862.53 and the ChiNext Index rising 2.74%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.1 trillion yuan. The scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan. Overseas, US major indices also rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.48% [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded rapidly, and the IF and IH contracts were at a premium. Both trading volume and open interest increased [2] Strategy - Big funds drive the financial sector up, and the market is likely to keep rising. New news of DeepSeek will expand the technology sector's market to software applications, and the market is expected to continue in October [3] Macro - economic Charts - Include charts on the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [5][6][8] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.05%, etc. Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [5][6][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Provide data on the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), basis, and inter - delivery spreads. For example, the trading volume and open interest of all contracts increased, and the basis of each contract changed [5][6][17]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Machinery Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for the machinery industry to maintain a stable and positive development trend from 2025 to 2026, with an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will focus on the science - technology and AI industries, formulating development guidelines for smart terminals and agents, opening up industry scenarios, and providing computing power subsidies. A new policy - based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan will be used to supplement project capital [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have rebounded significantly [2]. - Energy: International oil prices have rebounded [2]. Midstream - Chemical: The polyester operating rate is at a medium level [3]. - Energy: Coal consumption by power plants has remained stable [3]. Downstream - Real Estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities have slightly rebounded [4]. - Services: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 2. Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/29 | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.4 yuan/kg | - 4.77% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9248.0 yuan/ton | 3.08% | | | Spot price of cotton | 14982.5 yuan/ton | - 1.17% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.3 yuan/kg | - 1.28% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 82271.7 yuan/ton | 2.54% | | | Spot price of zinc | 21618.0 yuan/ton | - 1.48% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20700.0 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122050.0 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16856.3 yuan/ton | - 1.14% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of rebar | 3176.0 yuan/ton | 0.27% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 806.7 yuan/ton | - 1.51% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3357.5 yuan/ton | - 1.54% | | | Spot price of glass | 15.4 yuan/square meter | 7.90% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14775.0 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | China Plastic City price index | 790.0 | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 65.7 dollars/barrel | 5.32% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 69.2 dollars/barrel | 4.82% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3828.0 yuan/ton | 0.90% | | | Coal price | 793.0 yuan/ton | 1.02% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4612.5 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7345.0 yuan/ton | - 0.14% | | | Spot price of urea | 1621.3 yuan/ton | - 2.04% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | National cement price index | 135.1 | 0.63% | | | Building materials composite index | 113.3 points | - 1.19% | | | National concrete price index | 91.7 points | - 0.01% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The port experienced a decent de - stocking as the arrival was lower than expected and downstream pre - holiday pick - up was good, but the absolute inventory is still high. The future change mainly depends on the announcement of Iran's winter inspection plan. The port's lower support relies on the window for re - flowing to the inland. - In the inland, the northwest prices remain strong. With mainstream CTO factories continuing to purchase at the beginning of the week and low inventory, the inland is stronger than the port. Traditional downstream has mixed performances, and coal - based methanol production restart is slow, waiting for a further increase in October [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts about methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, and MA2609 - MA2601 [7][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - It shows charts related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [27][36]. III. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Charts display methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated). The port total inventory is 1492190 tons (- 65580), and the inland factory inventory is 319940 tons (- 20540) [2][38]. IV. Regional Price Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. For example, the Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 43 yuan/ton (- 5) [2][42]. V. Traditional Downstream Profit - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [52][61]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Inter - period: Go long on MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - Cross - variety: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

Report Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. The settlement price of the October contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. There is uncertainty about the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October [4]. - The December contract is still far from delivery, and trading mainly focuses on the rhythm. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of price increases in November. There are risks such as the bottom of the current freight rate decline and weak demand on the US route. The trading rhythm involves first trading the price - increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice, and repeating this process until delivery [6]. - The strategy suggests going short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expecting the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly. There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotations**: Different shipping companies have different price quotations and price - increase notices. For example, Maersk's WEEK42 quotation for Shanghai - Rotterdam has risen to 1800 US dollars/FEU, HPL - SPOT's price in the second half of October is 600 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the first half, and MSC has issued a price - increase notice for the second half of October [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: US President Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas. If both sides accept, the two - year conflict will end immediately, and Israel will withdraw troops in stages [2]. - **Container Ship Capacity**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European basic ports from China is 263,900 TEU, with 17 blank sailings. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity is 304,000 TEU, with 3 blank sailings and 3 TBNs [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **October Contract**: The central value of the freight rate in the first half of October has continued to decline to around 1400 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be around 1000 points, and the SCFIS on October 20th is estimated to be similar. The uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of price increases in the second half of October. Optimistically, if the settlement price in the last week increases by 500 US dollars/FEU, the final three - phase settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately 1400/1500/1900 US dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1150 - 1200 points on the SCFIS; if the price - support fails, the final settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4][5]. - **December Contract**: With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping volume remains high, and shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, there are risks such as weak US demand. The trading rhythm first involves the price - increase expectation and then the actual implementation of the price - increase notice [6]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of September 29, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route is 69,419 lots, and the daily trading volume is 33,930 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, such as EC2602 at 1667.00, EC2604 at 1253.00, etc. [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the SCFI for Shanghai - Europe is 971 US dollars/TEU, for Shanghai - US West is 1460 US dollars/FEU, and for Shanghai - US East is 22385 US dollars/FEU. On September 15, 2025, the SCFIS for Shanghai - Europe is 1120.49 points, and for Shanghai - US West is 921.25 points [7]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of September 28, 2025, 201 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEU. Among them, 63 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 948,300 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [7]. 5. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Go short on the 10 - contract on rallies and expect the 12 - contract to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: There is currently no arbitrage strategy [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the near - term contract and short the far - term contract [9] Group 2: Core Views - The macro environment at home and abroad remains positive. The domestic 15th Five - Year Plan meeting may implement new policy financial tools, while overseas policies are still hawkish overall. There is no need to be pessimistic about aluminum prices, and consumption in the fourth quarter at home and abroad is expected to be positive [6]. - For electrolytic aluminum, pre - holiday restocking has led to a continuous decline in social inventory. The supply is basically stable, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering. Although the social inventory situation is mediocre, the absolute value is still relatively low, which is not likely to cause a negative impact [6]. - For alumina, the supply is still in surplus, and the opening of the import window has exacerbated the domestic surplus situation. The social inventory is rapidly accumulating. The cost side is in a state of game, and policy disturbances in Guinea in the next two months need to be vigilant. Although the current price is close to the marginal high - cash cost and facing losses, the downside space is limited under the low - valuation background [6][7]. - For aluminum alloy, downstream consumption is recovering, but the supply is still in surplus, and the overall social inventory is relatively high. The absolute price is subject to many macro disturbances, which is not conducive to the seasonal convergence of the price difference with aluminum ingots [8]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Data Aluminum Spot - On September 29, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 20,755 yuan/ton, closed at 20,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,770 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,660 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 132,925 lots, and the open interest was 203,858 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 59,747 tons, a decrease of 3,483 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 515,600 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 72,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 58,200 tons [4]. Alumina - On September 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,935 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,895 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,965 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,145 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - The main contract of alumina futures opened at 2,898 yuan/ton, closed at 2,904 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,862 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 356,985 lots, and the open interest was 292,517 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - On September 29, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,323 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 177 yuan/ton [5].