Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 2: Core View - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. The orders of downstream refined copper rod enterprises continue to decline, and there is great uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 18, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the early morning, holders quoted JCC, Lufang, Xiangguang at a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton. After traders bought JCC at a low - premium of 170 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price weakened. In Changzhou, iron - peak, Honglu, Yuguang copper were traded at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton. Russian copper was sold at low prices, with transactions from par to a premium of 40 yuan/ton. Holders rushed to sell due to concerns about subsequent warehouse receipts, and the spot premium is expected to decline further [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has risen to 7, and the expected rate cuts next year have been reduced to 1. Powell emphasized uncertainty and said the current economic situation requires waiting. He also expects tariff - driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Trump called for a 200 - BP rate cut and said 250 - BP would be better. In China, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight major financial opening - up measures [3] - **Mine End**: Anglo Asian aims to transform into a medium - sized copper - based producer by 2029. Besides the Gilar mine, it plans to put three other mines (Zafar, Xarxar, and Garadag) into production. In 2024, its operations were restricted by environmental closures but resumed at the end of the year, with a total gold - equivalent output of 16,760 ounces [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In April 2025, China's scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) imports were 204,747.956 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month and down 9.43% year - on - year. Japan was the largest supplier, with imports of 32,677.883 tons, up 20.95% month - on - month and 13.72% year - on - year. Thailand was the second - largest supplier, with imports of 25,049.854 tons, up 27.15% month - on - month and 61.91% year - on - year [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases on dips [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 107,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons. On June 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended [5] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Data Table - Various copper - related data are presented in tables and figures, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium and discount quotes, inventory, warehouse receipts, and price differences [6][27][28]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 仓单减少较多，需关注近月交割情况 市场分析 2025年6月18日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60000元/吨，收于59880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价下跌0.02%。当 日成交量为181046手，持仓量为306885手，较前一交易日减少450手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳570 元/吨。所有合约总持仓604974手，较前一交易日减少7855手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少12486手，成交 量减少，整体投机度为0.43 。当日碳酸锂仓单29967手，较上个交易日减少1746手。近期仓单注销较多，价格较低 时，新仓单注册较少，需关注7月仓单注销后，新仓单注册情况。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月18日电池级碳酸锂报价5.99-6.1万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.835-5.935万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0万元/吨。现货价格持稳，当前碳酸锂市场仍呈现供需过 剩格局，供应端可流通量级维持相对充足，而需求端表现则相对疲软，下游材料企业采购意愿偏低，以刚需补库 为主，未见备库需求显现。 库存方面：根据SMM最新 ...

铝期货方面：2025-06-18日沪铝主力合约开于20520元/吨，收于20680元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨275元/ 吨，涨幅1.35%，最高价达20745元/吨，最低价达到20500元/吨。全天交易日成交135602手，较上一交易日增 加33904手，全天交易日持仓198623手，较上一交易日减少321手。 能源扰动引发铝价上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20900元/吨，较上一交易日上涨280元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌30元/吨至180元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20750元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日 下跌40元/吨至40元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20760元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨25元/吨至55元/ 吨。 库存方面，截止2025-06-16，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存45.8万吨。截止2025-06-18，LME铝库存347000 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-18 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3170元/吨，山东价格录得3180元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-19 不锈钢支撑显现，盘面价小幅反弹 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-18日沪镍主力合约2507开于118790元/吨，收于118480元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.42%，当日成交量 为76829手，持仓量为84114手。 沪镍主力合约2507继续弱势震荡，日线收出五连阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所增加，持仓量对 比上个交易日基本持平。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积开始缓慢扩大，短周期内或许会延续弱势震荡 的阶段。60分钟线在6月6日的123000附近出现顶背离现象，继续关注上方122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方 119000已破位底背离结构出现，关注短周期内反弹的力度。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日报价持 平，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，但市场升贴水相对强硬，沪镍下方仍 有支撑，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现尚可，升贴水对比上个交易日持平，升贴水近期处于相对平稳的态势。其 中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2600元/吨，进口镍升水变化150元/吨至500元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-06-19 港口再度去库，基差快速走强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤410元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润703元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1998元/吨（+5），内蒙北线基差81元/吨（-57），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2355元/吨（-25），鲁 南基差38元/吨（-87）；河南2245元/吨（-25），河南基差-72元/吨（-87）；河北2195元/吨（-5），河北基差-62元/吨 （-67）。隆众内地工厂库存367350吨（-11770），西北工厂库存237000吨（-100）；隆众内地工厂待发订单274780吨 （-27310），西北工厂待发订单149500吨（-17500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2700元/吨（+85），太仓基差183元/吨（+23），CFR中国298美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-3元/ 吨（+29），常州甲醇2515元/吨；广东甲醇2570元/吨（+60），广东基差53元/吨（-2）。隆众港口总库存586400吨（-65800）， 江苏港口库存293500吨（-18500），浙江港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there is no recommendation for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a strong trend in crude oil prices, driving up polyolefins from the cost side. Propane prices are also strong, and the production profit of PDH - made PP remains in the red. The previously shut - down PE plants have resumed operation, and some plants are under planned maintenance, with overall high - level operation. The shut - down PP plants have returned, putting great pressure on the supply side. The overall inventory level of upstream has a small reduction. In the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream demand remains weak, mainly with terminal rigid - demand procurement. The agricultural film operation has bottomed out and rebounded but is still at a low level, and demand cannot drive the market [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7418 yuan/ton (+101), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7214 yuan/ton (+89). The LL North China spot price is 7370 yuan/ton (+60), the LL East China spot price is 7420 yuan/ton (+70), and the PP East China spot price is 7250 yuan/ton (+60). The LL North China basis is - 48 yuan/ton (-41), the LL East China basis is 2 yuan/ton (-31), and the PP East China basis is 36 yuan/ton (-29) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 79.2% (+1.8%), and the PP operating rate is 78.6% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit is - 318.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), the PP oil - based production profit is - 718.7 yuan/ton (-251.0), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 33.7 yuan/ton (-40.2) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 26.6 yuan/ton (-3.6), the PP import profit is - 316.3 yuan/ton (+6.4), and the PP export profit is 2.2 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (-0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.4% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.4% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+0.0%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, leading to poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - Smelters' raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged [3] - Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,200 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 25 yuan/ton to 155 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 45 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 180 yuan/ton to 22,210 yuan/ton, and the spot premium fell by 35 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,885 yuan/ton and closed at 22,060 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 123,695 lots, a decrease of 694 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 97,228 lots, a decrease of 8,440 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,130 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,825 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of June 18, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 128,250 tons, a decrease of 625 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, mainly consuming inventory, resulting in poor spot market transactions and a further decline in spot premiums [3] - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore remains stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third - quarter overseas continues to rise [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is still increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of accumulation, possibly due to the zinc alloy reservoir effect [3] - **Risk**: In the short term, be vigilant about energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to both PVC and caustic soda [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak in the medium - to - long - term, lacking upward driving forces, and the price increase may not be sustainable. For caustic soda, the short - term trend follows the basis repair logic, but there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,899 yuan/ton (+66), the East China basis was - 139 yuan/ton (-26), and the South China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 3.7 dollars/ton (+0.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,298 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 296 yuan/ton (-25) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,380 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 819.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 267.53 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,264.03 yuan/ton (-141.52) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operation level decreased slightly month - on - month. Later, with reduced maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. With the expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3] - Demand side: The operation of downstream products decreased slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, continuing the weak domestic demand pattern. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month but at a slow pace. With increased supply and weak demand later, the social inventory may enter an accumulation phase [3] - Export: Export orders are being delivered steadily. There is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. The sustainability of the export side needs to be monitored [3] - Price: Affected by the Middle East situation, the energy - chemical sector rose generally. Driven by market sentiment, both PVC futures and spot prices increased [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mainly concentrated in North and East China. The operation in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintained high - load production. The overall caustic soda operation remains at a high level. With the expected new caustic soda capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure will further increase [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, and the restarted and newly - built capacities are gradually stabilizing. The spot price of alumina declined. A Shandong alumina plant maintained a high delivery volume and lowered the liquid caustic soda purchase price by 20 yuan to 800 yuan/ton ex - factory. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, with the dyeing operation rate declining month - on - month and the terminal operation of viscose staple fiber at a low level. Downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for immediate needs [3] - Price: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has fallen to a relatively low level. The futures are deeply discounted, and the spot price of caustic soda has decreased. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are weak, lacking upward driving forces. The price increase may not be sustainable. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile upward pattern. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the export side dynamics and new production progress [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The short - term trend follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit. The later trend of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13835元/吨，较前交易日变动+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.14%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+465，较前交易日变动+0；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.61元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH09+775，较前交易日变动-40；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.85元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09+15，较前交易日变动-150。 据农业农村部监测，6月18日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.64，比昨天下降0.19个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.64，比昨天下降0.22个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.24元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉63.80元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；羊肉59.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋7.15元/公斤，比昨天下降1.4%；白条鸡16.99 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 综合来看， ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-06-19 局势仍不明朗，盘面震荡偏强运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.78%，报3333元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.02%，报3921 元/吨。 随着伊以冲突升级，原油价格走势偏强，对FU、LU单边价格形成提振，但目前局势仍不明朗，市场或面临反复波 动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前整体矛盾有限，市场存在一定支撑，伊以冲突暂时还未对基本面造成实质性影响。 高硫燃料油方面，随着夏季临近，中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升，市场短期存在支撑。此外，由于以色列 天然气出口到埃及，如果其天然气田生产受损，则可能导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧，进而采购更多的高硫 燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性的供应中断，但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口在冲突中受到严重 损坏，则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能，我国炼厂的原料来源或边际收紧，亚洲高硫燃料油市场面临潜在上 行风险。 低硫燃料油方面，短期供应压力有限，5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位。此外，最新数据显示新加坡5月份船燃销 量显著增长，下游船燃需求表现良好，对市场存在支撑。但随着国内炼厂检修季结束，预计低硫燃料 ...