Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port remains weak with rapid inventory accumulation this week. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, increasing the arrival pressure. The downstream MTO device, Xingxing, will be shut down for one - month maintenance starting at the end of July. There is a possibility of methanol production reduction in Shandong during the military parade. Inland methanol prices are stronger than those at the port. Inland factory inventory is low, and coal - based methanol production is on the rise, with further recovery expected at the end of August. Some downstream industries like acetic acid are seeing a decline in production, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures show methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [5][6][10][11][14][22][24] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [5][26][30][34] III. Methanol Production and Inventory - Figures present total port inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [5][36][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures show price differences in different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [5][40][47][50] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [5][51][58] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market expected a possible reduction in Shandong pure benzene production before the military parade, but no significant reduction has occurred yet. Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, with a narrowing futures premium. The import pressure is not increasing due to a slower arrival rhythm in China and planned maintenance of Korean aromatics in August - September. However, the overall downstream production has declined, leading to a smaller future de - stocking amplitude for pure benzene and a still relatively high absolute inventory level. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle. The pre - peak - season stocking before the "Golden September and Silver October" and a slower arrival rhythm have led to this round of de - stocking. But the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of white - goods production has declined, and the boost to styrene downstream production is limited. The styrene basis has been stable recently, indicating no further large - scale downstream procurement [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Related figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend and basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [8][12][16] 3.2 Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [19][22][31][37] 3.3 Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures show pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [39][41][44] 3.4 Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures include EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [51][53][54] 3.5 Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures cover caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [60][64][71][73][85]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand for asphalt remains weak, and the market driving force is limited. The supply - demand pattern of asphalt is generally in a weak state, with inventory at a low level and no significant signal of inventory accumulation. The short - term surplus pressure in the market is limited, but the improvement of terminal demand is weak due to weather factors, and speculative demand also needs to recover. The price of the asphalt market is closely related to oil prices, and if oil prices continue to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is that the unilateral trend is expected to be weakly volatile, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 13, the closing price of the main BU2510 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,503 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 224,999 lots, a net increase of 1,869 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 123,189 lots, a net increase of 2,907 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,520 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China: 3,520 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China: 3,600 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market increased yesterday, while the spot prices in the East China and South China regions decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly volatile - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, different regions), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their highest annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. The oil market may decline in the second half of the year unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX remains in a low - inventory state. The PXN has support at the bottom, but the floating price of PX has shown some weakness [1] - In the short term, the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved due to maintenance, but it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The mainstream suppliers' active sales are putting pressure on prices [2] - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). The terminal weaving industry's raw material restocking was driven by anti - involution sentiment in July, but the demand has not fundamentally improved. The polyester load remains firm in the short term [2] - The spot production profit of PF is 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton). The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is under pressure from the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - The spot processing fee of PR is 393 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 27 yuan/ton). Major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in August, and the processing fee is expected to recover [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA, as well as Chinese and Asian PX [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, processing fees, and in - factory inventory available days [68][72][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [88][93][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The apple market is currently in a stable and dull state. The inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports the price of inventory apples. The quality of early - maturing apples is not good, with many showing green - returning phenomena, resulting in average sales of both early - maturing and inventory apples. The impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the market and the weather conditions in the main producing areas need to be followed [1][2][3] - Red date: Since June, the market has been trading around the expectation of a new - season red date production cut. The sensitivity to new - season changes in the producing areas has increased. The current differences in the estimation of the new - season red date production are intensifying. The short - term trend of the futures may be volatile and strong due to capital sentiment. However, if the production - cut expectation cannot be realized, the red date price may return to a weak state under the high - inventory pressure [7][8] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8158 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 558 in Shandong and AP10 + 842 in Shaanxi increased by 20 respectively [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed lower yesterday. The high - temperature weather in Shaanxi may affect the high - quality fruit rate of Gala apples. The inventory Fuji farmers are selling at discounted prices. The impact of the large - scale listing of Gala apples on the futures market and the weather changes in the main producing areas need to be followed. The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. The high - quality apples are sold at high prices in the sales area, but the overall sales are slow [1][2] Strategy - The apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [3] Red Date Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11410 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (- 1.21%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1810 increased by 240 [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures continued to close lower yesterday. The high temperature in the producing areas makes the quality of new - season red dates to be verified. The futures market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment. The early - stage fruit - setting of some orchards was average, but the fruit - setting of the second and third batches of flowers was good due to temperature drop and rainfall in early July. The trading atmosphere in the sales area has improved, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 255 tons (2.54%) from the previous week [5][6][7] Strategy - The differences in the estimation of the new - season red date production are intensifying. The short - term futures trend may be volatile and strong due to capital sentiment. But if the production - cut expectation cannot be realized, the red date price may return to a weak state under the high - inventory pressure [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is neutral [4] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the new - season US soybeans are expected to be in good harvest, the lack of substantial progress in Sino - US policies and the rising Brazilian premium have supported the soybean meal price. In the short term, the fundamentals will not change significantly, and policies and Brazilian premium will be important price - influencing factors [3] - For the corn market, the low remaining grain in the domestic market provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+2.33%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2723 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+2.64%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2980 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2690 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2279 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.84%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2651 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.3 US Department of Agriculture's August Supply - Demand Report - Soybeans: The estimated harvest area for the 2025/26 US soybeans was 80.104 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The yield per acre was 53.6 bushels, higher than expected. The production was 4.292 billion bushels, slightly lower than expected, and the ending stocks were 290 million bushels, a three - year low [2] - Corn: The estimated sown area for the 2025/26 US corn was 97.3 million acres, the harvested area was 88.7 million acres, the yield per acre was 188.8 bushels, the production was 16.742 billion bushels, the export volume was 2.875 billion bushels, and the ending stocks were 2.117 billion bushels, all higher than the July estimates [4] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with a high - level growth situation in five years. The weather is favorable, and the expectation of a good harvest is strong. However, the lack of progress in Sino - US policies has caused market concerns. Domestically, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the soybean meal inventory is rising, the rising Brazilian premium and lack of policy progress have supported the price [3] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Domestically, the low remaining grain provides some support, but the weak market sentiment and low demand mean there is a lack of upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn yield [5] 3.3 Strategy - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is neutral [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, failing to reflect the characteristics of the traditional peak demand season. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile range of 16,300 - 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On August 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$38.73/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells increased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,940 yuan/ton, closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28,937 lots, down 1,049 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 49,424 lots, down 1,799 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point at 16,975 yuan/ton and the lowest at 16,865 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,880 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the Henan region, holders offered at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or at a discount of 170 - 110 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with limited supply of low - priced goods. In the Hunan region, smelters offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 170 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, but the trading was relatively light. In the Jiangxi region, holders offered at a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or at a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. The lead futures weakened during the day, and some holders near the delivery date stopped offering and preferred to deliver to the warehouse. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases at low prices, and the overall market trading improved limitedly [2] Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still focused on the progress of the Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. Although there are significant differences between Russia and Ukraine, Trump's direct meeting with Putin indicates that the situation is moving towards the end of the war. Future actions by Trump, whether to relax or increase sanctions, will have a significant impact on Russian oil, especially India's procurement of Russian oil [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 52 cents to $62.65 per barrel, a decrease of 0.82%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 49 cents to $65.63 per barrel, a decrease of 0.74%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 1.69% at 482 yuan per barrel [1]. - Trump stated that the core goal of his meeting with Putin this week is to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine, not to discuss territorial division. All leaders agreed that Ukraine must participate in the negotiations throughout, and the decision on territorial concessions belongs exclusively to Ukraine. If Putin refuses to cease fire, Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia [1]. - Trump will propose to Putin during the Russia-US summit to jointly develop rare earth mineral resources in Alaska and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts, stating that such incentives "can be accepted by Europe" [1]. - Russia will extend oil production cuts in the remaining time of 2025 to compensate for exceeding the OPEC+ quota. Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels per day from July to November and an additional cut of 9,000 barrels per day in December [1]. - The foreign ministers of France, the UK, and Germany stated that if a satisfactory solution cannot be found by the end of August, they will activate the "restoration mechanism" of sanctions against Iran [1]. - As of the week ending August 11, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased to 17.427 million barrels, the lowest in two weeks but still 12% higher than at the end of 2024. Light distillate inventories increased by 8.8% to 7.766 million barrels, reaching a three - week high. Medium distillate inventories decreased by 1.4% to 2.245 million barrels. Heavy residual fuel oil inventories decreased by 23% to 7.416 million barrels, hitting a two - month low [1]. Investment Logic - The market is concerned about the Trump - Putin meeting. Trump's meeting with Putin means the situation is moving towards the end of the war, and Trump's actions on sanctions will significantly affect Russian oil, especially India's procurement of Russian oil [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3]. Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3]. - Upside risks include the US increasing sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The USDA unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area, and the prices of the three major oils oscillated upward. Despite a record - high yield per unit, the significant reduction in the planting area led the USDA to lower the soybean production forecast. With the bullish impact of the USDA report and the conclusion of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the overall situation provided some support for the oil market, causing the oil prices to strengthen [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9424.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan and a change rate of +0.66%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8576.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.18%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 10064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +262.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.67% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.61%. The spot basis was P09 + 46.00, with a month - on - month change of +88.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8680.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.28%. The spot basis was Y09 + 104.00, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10170.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.62%. The spot basis was OI09 + 106.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Export Tax - Malaysia raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [2] Soybean and Rapeseed Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 498 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 542 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 532 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Oil Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1146 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1138 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] USDA Forecast - The USDA expected the soybean yield per unit in the United States in the 2025/26 season to reach 53.6 bushels per acre, higher than the July forecast of 52.5 bushels and the analyst's expectation of 52.9 bushels. The USDA significantly cut the soybean planting area forecast from 83.4 million acres in July to 80.9 million acres, and lowered the soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral. The lower inventory and upcoming textile peak season provide strong support for cotton prices, but the ample global supply in the new year and potential regulatory policies limit the upside [2] - Sugar: Neutral. Short - term range - bound, long - term bearish [5] - Pulp: Neutral. The current pulp market fundamentals have no significant improvement, and short - term prices are hard to break out of the bottom [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The USDA report is bullish, causing cotton prices to rise. However, the global cotton market in the 2025/26 season may still be in a loose supply pattern. In China, short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] - Sugar: The Brazilian data is bearish, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures face short - term upward pressure due to factors like slow domestic sales and large imports [4] - Pulp: The supply of pulp is under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to remain at a low level [6] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,057 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5657 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton (+0.87%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5855 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - Export: Brazil exported 392.08 million tons of sugar in August 2024, with a daily average of 17.82 million tons [3] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5302 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - International: The USDA report is bullish, but the global cotton market in 2025/26 may have loose supply. The US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve, and prices will follow the macro - market sentiment [1] - Domestic: Short - term cotton prices have bottom support, but the long - term outlook is bearish due to new cotton listing and uncertain demand [1] Sugar - International: Brazilian data is bearish, and the raw sugar futures are in bottom - range oscillation with limited rebound space [4] - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has increasing pressure due to slower sales, large imports, and falling processed sugar prices [4] Pulp - Supply: There is supply pressure in the second half of 2025, with high port inventories and expected decline in imports [6] - Demand: The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [6] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the price has a bottom and upside limited [2] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral strategy, with short - term range - bound and long - term bearish views [5] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, as the short - term price is hard to break out of the bottom [7]