Hua Tai Qi Huo
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黑色建材日报:宏观情绪乐观,钢价震荡运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [3] - Coking Coal: Oscillating weakly [4] - Coke: Oscillating [4] - Thermal Coal: Oscillating strongly [5][6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is optimistic, and steel prices are oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - The supply - demand disturbances of iron ore continue, and ore prices maintain an oscillation. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is accumulating. Coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, and coke prices follow coking coal fluctuations [3][4]. - The rigid demand for thermal coal procurement is stable, and coal prices are oscillating strongly. The supply is gradually tightening, but the port market sentiment is weak [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3106 yuan/ton and 3309 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, with 10.13 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure of coils and rebar has been well alleviated. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore was 97.5 tons, a 13.02% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 165.0 tons, a 73.68% increase [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipment decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory continued to rise. Downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts due to continuous losses, and there is a possibility of further production cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. The coke market was stable and weak, and the production increased steadily. Some coal mines in the origin of coking coal had production cuts, and the import of Mongolian coal was affected by snow [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction gradually accumulated. The cost support of coke weakened, and the market sentiment turned weak [4]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be oscillating weakly, and coke should be oscillating. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgy and chemical industries was active. The port market sentiment was weak, and the downstream procurement demand was cold. The import coal bid price decreased [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply is gradually tightening, which supports coal prices. The inventory in coal mines is not high, but the inventory in northern ports has increased rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices are oscillating [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:消费端分歧较大,碳酸锂盘面或维持高位震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Group 1: Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 91,000 yuan/ton and closed at 95,400 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 511,279 lots, and the open interest was 343,199 lots, down from 365,078 lots the previous day. The current basis is 810 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,615 lots, a change of 105 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,800 - 94,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 88,300 - 91,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,120 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price is in the range of 90,000 - 92,000 yuan, downstream material factories increase their procurement, and market transactions become more active. As the futures price rises to around 95,000 yuan, downstream material factories reduce their price - fixing behavior. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient [1]. Group 2: New Energy Policy - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in 2026. The bidding does not distinguish between project types. The bidders are new energy projects that were put into operation (fully grid - connected) between June 1, 2025 (inclusive) and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), have not been included in the mechanism electricity price implementation scope, and voluntarily participate [2]. - The total scale of the bidding electricity is 1.2 billion kWh in 2026. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.3598 yuan/kWh. The upper limit of the declared electricity volume for a single project does not exceed the estimated annual on - grid electricity volume, which is determined by multiplying the installed capacity by the annual average power generation utilization hours and deducting the power consumption of the power plant. The annual average power generation utilization hours for photovoltaic power generation in Beijing is 1,450 hours, and for wind power is 2,000 hours, with a power plant power consumption rate of 3%. The implementation period for the selected projects' mechanism electricity price is 12 years [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Currently, there are significant differences in the consumer end. There are large differences in the overall production scheduling expectations after the decline in the power end in the first - quarter off - season of 2026 and the supplement of energy storage. In the short term, it cannot be falsified, and the futures market may maintain high - level volatile operation [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and the resumption of production at the mine end, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. For inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading, there are no specific strategies. For options, sell out - of - the - money options on both sides [3].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升贴水持续偏强运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]
FICC日报:人民币汇率稳步走强,美联储降息预期强化-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 人民币汇率稳步走强,美联储降息预期强化 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日,"十五五"规划建议全文发布,公报提到,到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升,人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算,"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右,较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日, 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识,11月5日,中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面,10月全国制造业PMI录得49, 环比值下跌0.8;中国10月出口(以美元计价)同比下降1.1%,前值增8.3%,进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响,前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化,同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓。11 月14日国务院常务会议,研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作,部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措 施,国内经济基础仍待夯实。国务院新闻办公室定于2025年11月27日(星期四)上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹 风会,介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况。1 ...
甲醇日报:继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:59
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should continue to monitor the progress of winter inspections of Iranian methanol plants. Although some Iranian plants have shut down, the shipping volume in November exceeded 1 million tons, so there is still significant inventory pressure at ports in December, and the current situation remains weak [3]. - In the domestic market, there are both new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. Among traditional downstream sectors, acetic acid and formaldehyde have low operating rates, while only MTBE has a relatively high operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China) [6][27][28]. 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), domestic factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is presented through charts [6][35][36]. 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts showing regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280, East China and Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang and Lunan - 250, etc. [6][40][47]. 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production profits of traditional downstream products, including the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][55]. 3.6 Market News and Key Data Domestic Market - The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 583 yuan/ton (unchanged). The prices of methanol in different domestic regions have different changes, with some increasing and some remaining stable. The inventory and pending order volumes of domestic factories also show different trends, with inventory decreasing and pending orders increasing [1]. Port Market - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2060 yuan/ton (+7 yuan), and CFR China is 238 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars). Port inventory has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO has increased slightly [2]. Regional Price Differences - There are various changes in regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest - 280 increasing by 15 yuan/ton, and the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia - 550 increasing by 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.7 Market Analysis - At ports, the market is waiting for further progress of winter inspections of Iranian plants. Although some plants have shut down, the high shipping volume in November leads to high inventory pressure in December. In the domestic market, there are new shutdowns and restarts, resulting in high supply pressure. Some MTO plants are under maintenance or operating at low loads, and traditional downstream sectors have different operating rates [3]. 3.8 Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [4]. - Inter - period: Expand the price difference between MA2605 and MA2609 when it is low [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [4].
农产品日报:现货持续累库,豆粕宽幅震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
新能源及有色金属日报:铜价冲高之际,下游采购有所放缓-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Inflation Data**: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - **Fiscal Data**: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - **Fed Information**: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - **Mine - end News**: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - **Arbitrage and Import Profit**: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].
贵金属日报:美10月联邦预算赤字高企,贵金属价格走强-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:56
贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面,美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%,核心PPI环比上涨0.1%,均较前值明显加速,显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时,美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%,连续四个月正增长但显著放缓,且低于市场预期,汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面,美国财政部表示,受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响,10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元;财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示,由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天,导致部分款项(例如政 府雇员的工资)的支付延迟,2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面,美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段,美国财政部长贝森特称,总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外,美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称,当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展,美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-11-25,沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克,收于946.50元/克,较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手,持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...
纯苯苯乙烯日报:苯乙烯检修仍持续-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the pure benzene market, with the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing and the resumption of refinery operations, the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmical arrival of pure benzene at ports increases the pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories at the beginning of the week, which suppresses the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with the operation rate of phenol rising, while those of aniline and adipic acid declining. Styrene is still in the maintenance period and is expected to resume operations at the end of the month [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories did not continue to decline, and the arrival of goods increased rhythmically. Styrene is still in the low - operation maintenance stage, and the resumption plan has been postponed. Attention now shifts to the downstream. Currently, downstream operations are still at a low level. The operation rate of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, is expected to further decline at the end of the year, while those of ABS and PS are slightly rising from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the summary part, only mentioned figures related to pure benzene's basis and futures contracts, and EB's basis and spreads [1][7][12] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 101 dollars/ton (-10 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 89 dollars/ton (-9 dollars/ton). The profit of downstream products varies, with caprolactam at -850 yuan/ton (+275), phenol - acetone at -415 yuan/ton (+0), aniline at 499 yuan/ton (+3), and adipic acid at -1245 yuan/ton (+23) [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is -223 yuan/ton (+30 yuan/ton), with an expected gradual compression [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operation Rates - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 tons (+1.70 tons), and the downstream operation rate is generally low, with the phenol operation rate rising, and those of aniline and adipic acid falling [1][2]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+15,900 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+6,900 tons), and the operation rate is 69.0% (-0.3%). It is still in the maintenance period, and the resumption plan is postponed [1][2]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 105 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), operation rate is 56.27% (+4.64%); PS production profit is 5 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), operation rate is 55.90% (+0.50%); ABS production profit is -493 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), operation rate is 72.40% (+0.60%). EPS is expected to have a further decline in operation rate at the end of the year, while ABS and PS have a slight increase from a low level, and there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS [1][2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operation and Production Profits - Caprolactam operation rate is 88.23% (+2.18%), phenol operation rate is 79.00% (+12.00%), aniline operation rate is 75.68% (-4.49%), adipic acid operation rate is 55.50% (-6.50%). The production profits of downstream products vary as mentioned above [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy provided. - Basis and Inter - Period: Consider a positive inter - period spread arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices. - Cross - Variety: Consider widening the spread for EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3].
丙烯日报:地缘局势缓和,关注成本端扰动-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:55
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn has weakened the cost - side support for propylene. With the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remaining unchanged, the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. The supply side has some short - term support due to PDH device maintenance, while the demand side's support may decline as the price increase squeezes downstream profits. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China propylene basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong propylene market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][19][22] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - This part contains figures on the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profits [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Capacity Utilization - It includes the production profits and capacity utilization rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][50][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section has figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]