Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply-demand gap is narrowing, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] Core View - Upstream maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in propylene production. Meanwhile, downstream production resumption has led to an overall increase in downstream operations, narrowing the supply-demand gap of propylene and improving spot market trading. However, the expectation of a loose propylene supply-demand situation remains unchanged, and there is insufficient upward driving force in the fundamentals, so the market remains in a low-level oscillation. The supply-side reduction provides short-term support for prices, and the demand-side support for propylene has strengthened, but it may decline. The cost side of propylene has support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The main contract closing price of propylene is 5,881 yuan/ton (+74), the spot price of propylene in East China is 5,945 yuan/ton (+20), the spot price of propylene in North China is 5,925 yuan/ton (-15), the basis of propylene in East China is 64 yuan/ton (-54), and the basis of propylene in North China is 8 yuan/ton (-86) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of propylene is 88% (+14%), the CFR of Chinese propylene - CFR of Japanese naphtha is 173 US dollars/ton (+21), and the CFR of propylene - 1.2 CFR of propane is 59 US dollars/ton (+10) [1] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit of propylene is -331 yuan/ton (-89) [1] 4. Profit and Capacity Utilization of Propylene Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is -255 yuan/ton (-45); the capacity utilization rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the capacity utilization rate of n-butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is -286 yuan/ton (+9); the capacity utilization rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is -138 yuan/ton (+111); the capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 479 yuan/ton (-14); the capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is -296 yuan/ton (+5); the capacity utilization rate of phenol-ketone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is -415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 5. Propylene Inventory - The in-plant inventory of propylene is 45,040 tons (-2,150) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - The report's investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils are oscillating under pressure due to a lack of clear guidance. The soybean supply is abundant, and the oil mill's crushing volume remains high. The market's focus has shifted from the cost of imported soybeans to the substantial supply pressure. There is also a market expectation of state reserve sales, with a relatively high probability of soybean reserve sales in the first quarter, reducing the expectation of a soybean supply shortage from February to March. Currently, soybean oil lacks upward momentum and is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Although there are occasional abnormal weather conditions in South America, their impact is currently minimal, and future weather conditions in South American production areas should continue to be monitored [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8486.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.75% from the previous day. - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8168.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.00 yuan or 0.27% from the previous day. - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9778.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8450.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.74% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 - 36.00, a decrease of 86.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous day, with a spot basis of Y01 + 192.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan from the previous day. - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.69% from the previous day, with a spot basis of OI01 + 322.00, a decrease of 32.00 yuan from the previous day [1] Market News - A private exporter reported selling 123,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, which starts on September 1st in the US. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 81% of the expected area, and the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn had reached 93% of the planned area in the central - southern region. - As of November 21, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across China was 117.99 million tons, an increase of 3.14 million tons or 2.73% from the previous week. - As of November 21, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key regions across China was 222.40 million tons, an increase of 0.10 million tons or 0.04% from the previous week, and a 12.84% increase compared to the same period last year. - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across China was 66.71 million tons, an increase of 1.39 million tons or 2.13% from the previous week, and a 31.34% increase compared to 50.79 million tons in the same period last year. - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 522 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1170 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1158 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1090 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 494 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 492 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. - The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Strategy - The recommended strategy is "Neutral" [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [4] - The Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in December, and the change in market expectations has impacted short - term overseas assets [3] - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be strengthened, but the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations [2] Summary by Related Content Domestic Economic Situation - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5% [2] - On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs [2] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down [2] - On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies [2] - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan [2][6] - On November 24, the A - share market fluctuated with reduced trading volume, and the military industry sector soared [2] International Economic Situation - Multiple Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest - rate cut, while Fed Governor Waller supports a cut and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious approach [3] - The US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, the highest in four months, with the service sector accelerating and the manufacturing sector slowing [3] - The US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined [3] - The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.7, unexpectedly falling below the boom - bust line, with manufacturing in Germany and France deteriorating [3] - The EU Council approved the EU's 2026 annual budget, with a total budget commitment of 192.8 billion euros [3][7] Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - The long - term supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worthy of attention [4] - In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US talks concluded, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4] - After the short - term sharp adjustment risk in the precious metals sector is cleared, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [4] International Political Events - On November 23, the US and Ukrainian delegations held talks on the US - proposed "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Geneva, Switzerland, and jointly drafted an updated peace framework text [4][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of Iran's gas restrictions, EG rebounded from a low level. The price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both increased. The production profit of ethylene - based and coal - based synthetic gas - based EG decreased. The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, the overseas device changes were limited, the polyester load support was okay but the orders weakened marginally [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3884 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan/ton, +2.00% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 3900 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton, +1.35% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in the East China market was 32 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 70 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based synthetic gas - based EG was - 1101 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - The report shows a chart of the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [20] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The polyester load was supported by low inventory, but the orders weakened marginally. The report provides data on the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [2][21][28] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged), and according to Longzhong data, it was 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and at the auxiliary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The overall inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention is focused on Maersk's quotes in the second week of December and whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of December [1] - The December contract trading emphasizes the rhythm, with expectations and reality interacting, and the valuation gradually becoming clear. Shipping companies will adjust the supply - side to keep freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for next year's long - term agreement negotiations [3] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages. The delivery and settlement time of the contract is determined, and its price may reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may reach parity with the December contract [4][5] - The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no current arbitrage opportunities [7] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents I. Futures Prices - As of November 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 71,641.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 21,265.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1,568.60, 1,142.10, 1,358.20, 1,488.10, 1,110.00, and 1,779.70 respectively [6] II. Spot Prices - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1367 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1645 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2384 dollars/FEU. On November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1107.85 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 253,800 TEU [6] - The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of November is 343,700 TEU, with capacities of 336,200/351,300 TEU in weeks 48 and 49 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in December is 303,900 TEU, with capacities of 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in January is 310,100 TEU, with capacities of 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. There is 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, an explosion occurred in the remaining Israeli forces in the northwest of Gaza City, and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation stated that its emergency mission in Gaza was "completed" [3] V. Demand and European Economy No specific information provided regarding demand and European economy in the content that meets the requirements

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场成交依然偏淡 铅价弱势运行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-24，LME铅现货升水为-22.41美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17075元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 17150元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17075元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至17075元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24，沪铅主力合约开于17195元/吨，收于17135元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交38420手，较前一交易日变化-1713手，全天交易日持仓52888手，手较前一交易日变化-2218手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17230元/吨，最低点达到17115元/吨。夜盘 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 下游采购以刚需为主 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-24，沪铜主力合约开于 85750元/吨，收于 86080元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.49%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 86,080元/吨，收于 86,040 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘基本持平。 现货情况： 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价86060~86410元/吨，对当月合约均价升水85元/吨，较前日微降5元。早 盘期铜冲高回落，进口亏损扩大至近1000元/吨，跨月价差维持Contango结构。市场采购情绪受铜价波动抑制，销 售意愿增强令现货升水承压。平水铜主流成交于升水10-60元/吨，好铜资源偏紧，金川大板升水约150元/吨。湿法 铜流通减少，非注册货源成交平淡。预计今日持货商报盘有限，下游以刚需采购为主，现货将维持小幅升水格局。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，国内方面，5月20日，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、招商银行、邮储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].