Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall trading atmosphere in the asphalt market is dull, with the market showing a narrow upward trend. The current market supply is relatively abundant, while demand is weak. Most regions have a flat trading atmosphere, but there are signs of rush - work in some terminal projects in the southern region. Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation, international oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday, which may disrupt the post - holiday BU market. It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday. The strategy for the asphalt market is to expect a sideways movement and maintain a light position before the holiday [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 29, the closing price of the main BU2511 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,466 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 132,865 lots, a decrease of 25,763 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 152,121 lots, a decrease of 57,958 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast region, 3,756 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong region, 3,450 - 3,720 yuan/ton; South China region, 3,500 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China region, 3,510 - 3,600 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market continued to decline slightly, while those in the South China and Sichuan - Chongqing markets continued to rise. The prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways movement, maintain a light position before the holiday. - Inter - delivery spread: No strategy. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy. - Futures - cash: No strategy. - Options: No strategy [2]. Figures The report includes figures showing various aspects of the asphalt market, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, production volume in different regions, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, and ship fuel), and inventory levels (refinery and social inventory) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both apples and red dates is neutral [3][7] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the current inventory level is low, providing price support at the bottom. High - quality new - season apples have relatively high prices, which affects the sales of inventory apples. Short - term prices are expected to remain stable [3] - For red dates, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend may continue. Otherwise, the futures price will face a volatile pattern with limited upside and strong downside support [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8486 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 1.01% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10915 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan/ton or 3.28% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price rose slightly yesterday, while the mainstream apple prices in Shandong and Shaanxi remained stable. New - season late Fuji and early - picked Fuji had active transactions. The double - festival stocking entered the later stage last week, and late Fuji in the east and west entered the bag - removing period. The inventory apples in Shandong had slow sales, and the early - picked Fuji in the west was affected by rain, with a shorter high - grade acquisition period [2] Red Dates - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday, and the price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei remained stable. The procurement by merchants in the sales areas was cautious, and inventory removal was slow. The 2024 production season had large production and high inventory but poor quality. The new - season production is expected to decrease, and the market has differences in fruit quality [6] Strategy Apples - The strategy is neutral. With the low inventory level, the price has bottom support, and short - term prices are expected to be stable [3] Red Dates - The strategy is neutral. The price trend depends on whether the production and quality meet expectations [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways to bearish [2] - Iron ore: Sideways to bearish [5] - Coking coal: Sideways [8] - Coke: Sideways [8] - Thermal coal: No strategy provided [10] Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward. The inventory pressure will increase after the pre - holiday restocking ends, and supply control is needed later [1]. - Iron ore shipments have slightly rebounded, and the price is oscillating downward. It shows a situation of strong supply and demand in the short term, and the price will remain range - bound [3][4]. - The double - coking market has strong risk - aversion sentiment and is oscillating. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, while the demand for coke remains resilient [6][8]. - The thermal coal market has intensified wait - and - see sentiment, and the coal price in the production area is running weakly. The price will be under pressure in the short term [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The rebar futures contract closed at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3289 yuan/ton. The national urban inventory of building materials was 491.96 million tons, a 5.10% week - on - week decrease; the national urban inventory of hot - rolled coils was 221.74 million tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The domestic macro - policy is in a wait - and - see period. Steel inventory has been accumulating, weaker than seasonal performance. After the pre - holiday restocking, the inventory pressure of finished products will increase. Attention should be paid to steel consumption after the National Day holiday, and supply suppression is needed to relieve the inventory pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The total cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 584,000 tons, a 46.00% week - on - week increase; the cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 1.1 million tons, a 110% week - on - week increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total shipment volume of 347.54 million tons, a 4.5% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 236.05 million tons, an 11.8% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments rebounded slightly this week, with strong shipment resilience. The arrival volume increased rapidly. The demand for iron ore is resilient as steel mills have good profits and no intention to cut production actively. The port inventory increased slightly, and the floating inventory decreased. The steel mill's iron ore inventory increased seasonally and is at a high level in the same period. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the supply is relatively loose at high prices. The price will remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and coal price changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for the single - side strategy, and no strategies for other aspects [5]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: The double - coking futures oscillated weakly throughout the day. The main contracts of coking coal and coke both fell, with declines of 4.98% and 4.16% respectively. The price of imported coal fell with the disk, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the holiday approaches, speculative demand has declined, and some funds have strong risk - aversion sentiment. For coking coal, supply is relatively loose, and demand from downstream coking enterprises is mainly for rigid needs. For coke, the daily output has decreased, and downstream steel mills still have relatively high production enthusiasm, and the consumption demand is resilient [8]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [8]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the market is running weakly as the holiday approaches. The prices of most coal mines are under pressure to decline. In the port area, the market sentiment is average, and the transaction price has slightly decreased. The price of imported coal is stable, and the trading activity has decreased [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the double - festival holiday approaches, the wait - and - see sentiment in the market has intensified. The price will oscillate in the short term, and the supply is expected to remain loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [9]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [10]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.17% at 2,919 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.29% at 3,480 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently, but the expectation of a looser medium-term balance sheet is suppressing the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situation, oil prices may fluctuate significantly during the National Day holiday [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the reduction in the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has also provided additional support for the FU futures structure. However, based on the current valuation level and supply-demand situation, the upward driving force of the high-sulfur fuel oil market is still limited and requires new variables [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the recent shutdown of RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local low-sulfur fuel oil supply, suppressing the crack spread and monthly spread structure. However, domestic production remains at a medium to low level, and the strong premium of gasoline and diesel has diverted low-sulfur oil components. Overall, the supply pressure is relatively limited. In the medium term, the trend of substitution of low-sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 2: Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term [2] - Cross-variety: No strategy [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread on dips [2] - Spot-futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@80000 yuan/ton Core Viewpoints - Overseas copper mine disturbances persist, and the low TC price around -$40/ton has reflected the expectation of copper concentrate shortage, making the TC difficult to rebound in the short term and copper prices more likely to rise than fall, but it's not enough to form a continuous positive for the absolute copper price. Domestic anti - involution measures for copper smelting enterprises need attention. Near the National Day holiday, speculators with heavy positions are advised to reduce positions, and hedging investors can buy on dips between 80,500 yuan/ton and 80,800 yuan/ton [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 82,270 yuan/ton and closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the electrolytic copper spot remained at a discount. The SMM1 copper average price was 82,010 - 82,410 yuan/ton, with a discount of 5 yuan/ton to the main contract (unchanged). The Shanghai copper price oscillated between 82,030 - 82,440 yuan/ton in the morning, and the import loss narrowed to less than 700 yuan/ton. Affected by the National Day holiday and end - of - quarter factors, market trading sentiment cooled, and high copper prices continued to suppress downstream procurement. The discount of flat - water copper decreased from 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton and then rebounded to 50 yuan/ton for transactions. The discount of wet - process copper was 100 - 80 yuan/ton, and that of non - registered sources was 200 - 160 yuan/ton. It is expected that trading activity will further decline at the end of the month, and the center of the spot premium or discount may move slightly higher [2] Important Information Summary - **Interest Rates**: Fed's Williams supported a rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor - market weakness and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [3] - **Tariffs**: US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the US and large tariffs on countries that don't manufacture furniture in the US to revitalize domestic industries [3] - **Fiscal**: The US Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and Democrats rejected a short - term temporary spending bill [3] - **Geopolitics**: US President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which, if agreed by both sides, would end the war immediately, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian committee [3] Supply - Side Analysis Mine End - The copper market focuses on industry conferences and supply - side disruptions. The domestic copper industry association pointed out that "involution - style" competition in the smelting industry has pressured processing fees, and called for avoiding vicious competition. The spot market was quiet, with only a few smelters purchasing LP ore for November/December shipments at a low price of -$40/ton. Freeport confirmed that an accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine killed two and left five missing. After a two - week shutdown, the 2025 output forecast was lowered to 488,000 tons (from 750,000 tons), and the 2026 forecast to 500,000 tons (from 730,000 tons). SMM estimated a supply shortage of 268,000 tons in 2025. Hudbay's Peru Constancia concentrator temporarily closed due to social unrest but said it would not affect the annual output target [4] Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories continued to decline last week, reaching a new two - month low of 144,400 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that in the week of September 26, Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 6.65% to 98,779 tons, at a three - month high. International copper inventories decreased by 50 tons to 12,277 tons. COMEX copper inventories continued to increase, reaching a new high since late June 2003 at 322,284 tons [4] Demand - Side Analysis Consumption - Demand in various industries showed no seasonal improvement, with the power, construction, and automotive sectors remaining weak. Enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday. Raw material inventories increased by 2.21% to 32,400 tons, and finished - product inventories increased by 10.66% to 78,900 tons. Affected by the National Day holiday next week, many enterprises plan to stop production for holidays, and the operating rate is expected to drop to 59.72%, a decrease of 9.74 percentage points [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 143,900 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 954 tons to 25,603 tons. On September 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,300 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. Considering current market conditions, there are continuous overseas copper mine disturbances, but the long - term low TC price has reflected the shortage expectation. Grasberg's accident may make TC harder to rebound in the short term, making copper prices more likely to rise. However, it's not a continuous positive for the absolute price. Near the National Day holiday, speculators with heavy positions are advised to reduce positions, and hedging investors can buy on dips between 80,500 yuan/ton and 80,800 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put@80000 yuan/ton

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [7]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,375 yuan/ton, a change of - 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 90 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a month - on - month increase of 4.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.79%. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.06% [2]. - **Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 47.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to August, the export volume of automobile tires was 555,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export value was 94.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2][3]. - **Côte d'Ivoire Export Data**: In the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume of Côte d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3]. - **Automobile Market Data**: In August 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a slight month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports reached 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports reached 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [4]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the RU basis was - 825 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 575 yuan/ton (- 45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,258 yuan/ton (- 33.81), the NR basis was 721.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+ 0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (- 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,000 yuan/ton (+ 250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.61 Thai baht/kg (- 0.27), the price of Thai glue was 54.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.55 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50) [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,420 tons (- 5,500), and the NR futures inventory was 42,942 tons (- 1,611) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On September 29, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+ 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,000 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,350 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,200 yuan/ton (- 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,749 yuan/ton (- 50) [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41% (- 3.31%) [6]. - **Inventories**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (- 2,120), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (+ 700) [6]. Strategy - **RU and NR**: Maintain a neutral rating. With the reduction of rainfall in domestic and overseas production areas, raw material prices are expected to decline, weakening cost - side support. As the domestic holiday approaches, downstream tire factories will enter a short - term maintenance period, and demand will decline. Overall, supply and demand are gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion may slow down or even accumulate again. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside space is limited after the news of a new round of state reserve sales is announced [7]. - **BR**: Maintain a neutral rating. Upstream plants will still have maintenance in October, and the operating rate may first rise and then fall. The production volume will change little in the next two weeks. The overall operating rate this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the supply remains abundant. After the downstream raw material replenishment is completed, demand will remain stable. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream tire factories will have a short - term shutdown and resume production after the holiday. It is expected that the downstream will continue to be in a peak season, and the supply and demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be booming [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the current new - season US soybeans are being harvested with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, leading to an expected reduction in overall output. However, due to the unclear outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and China's reduced imports of US soybeans, the export progress of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition between North and South America, further impacting US soybean exports. As a result, both CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure [2] - For the corn sector, in the domestic market, new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2933 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton or - 0.14% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2416 yuan/ton, a change of + 11 yuan/ton or + 0.46% [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 37, a change of + 4; in Jiangsu, it was 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 53, a change of + 4; in Guangdong, it was 2900 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M01 - 33, a change of + 4. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM01 + 164, a change of - 11 [1] - **Market Information**: As of Friday, the soybean sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season reached 5.97%, much faster than the same period last year. For the week ending September 18, US soybean export sales net increased by 72.45 tons, with a market forecast of a net increase of 60 - 160 tons [1] 3.2. Market Analysis for Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The new - season US soybean harvest is underway, with a slight decline in the good - to - excellent rate and a decrease in planting area, resulting in an expected reduction in overall output. Uncertain Sino - US trade policies and China's reduced imports slow down US soybean exports, pressuring CBOT US soybean prices. Argentina's policy change may intensify export competition and impact US soybean exports. CBOT US soybeans and domestic soybean oil and meal prices are under pressure, and attention should be paid to China's imports from Argentina and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] 3.3. Market News and Important Data for Corn - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2159 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton or - 0.87% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2483 yuan/ton, a change of + 3 yuan/ton or + 0.12% [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 141, a change of + 19; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS11 + 87, a change of - 3 [3] - **Market Information**: The EU Commission's monthly report shows that the EU's corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season is lowered by 80 tons to 5680 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, far lower than the initial forecast of 6500 tons. Due to the continuous drought in Southeast Europe in the summer of 2025, the corn yield per hectare is expected to be 6.88 tons, 1% lower than last month's forecast and 3% lower than the five - year average [3] 3.4. Market Analysis for Corn - **Supply**: New - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is continuously coming onto the market. The purchase price of new - season corn in the Northeast is declining, while in North China, the harvest progress is slowed by weather, and prices have slightly increased due to low inventories in deep - processing enterprises. As the supply increases in the future, traders are pessimistic about the market outlook and have a low willingness to store grain [4] - **Demand**: The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises have relatively little inventory, mainly replenishing stocks as needed. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement attitudes and the volume of new - grain supply [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Near the holiday, EG fluctuates. The spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous trading day, and the basis is 67 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton. The inventory data from different sources shows different trends. The overall supply and demand logic is that the domestic EG load is running at a high level, there are still many overseas supply losses, and there will be more arrivals during the National Day holiday. The demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. The near - term EG balance sheet has little contradiction, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but there is great pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 4224 yuan/ton (+ 11 yuan/ton, + 0.26% from the previous trading day), and the spot price of EG in the East China market is 4295 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton, - 0.12% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) is 67 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 62 dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 0 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG is - 283 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data in the provided content, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [17] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Pre - holiday stocking has slightly boosted demand, and the production and sales of filaments have improved significantly, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand recovery [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the main ports of East China is 40.9 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 5.8 tons); according to Longzhong data, it is 40.0 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.7 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight accumulation. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 7.3 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.3 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have not changed significantly. The futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With low valuation, there may be room for the price to rise if relevant policies are introduced [2][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure and weak short - term trading. The market is influenced by anti - involution policies and weak reality. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price decreased with reduced positions. The main contract 2511 opened at 8850 yuan/ton and closed at 8610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 390 yuan/ton (-4.33%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract was 206,977 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,202 lots, an increase of 69 lots from the previous day [2]. - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 (-50) yuan/ton [2]. - On the consumption side, the price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Last week, some domestic monomer enterprises slightly increased their DMC quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, and this week the price remained stable, supported by cost, supply - demand, and expectations [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, and long positions can be considered for dry - season contracts at low prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On September 29, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,950 yuan/ton and closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous trading day. The open interest was 93,768 lots (101,486 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 158,112 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased by 10.78% to 22.60, while silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.80% to 16.23GW. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,100.00 tons, a 0.30% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW, a 1.00% decrease [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor price changes in some products [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment has cooled. Polysilicon faces high inventory pressure, and the production reduction in October may be less than expected. Downstream silicon wafer price increases also face resistance [5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is recommended, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The mainstream price of LPG remains stable. Before the holiday, the demand is mainly for essential needs. Sellers focus on inventory reduction, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic supply also maintains an overall abundant state. The increase in the demand of the combustion terminal is lower than expected, and the growth of deep - processing is limited by profit factors. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG is relatively loose, and there is strong resistance in the market. After continuous corrections, it is expected that the short - term downward space of the futures market is limited, but it lacks the impetus to strengthen [1] Market Analysis - On September 29, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,600 yuan; Northeast market: 4,020 - 4,280 yuan; North China market: 4,400 - 4,650 yuan; East China market: 4,210 - 4,630 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,590 - 4,830 yuan; Northwest market: 4,400 - 4,500 yuan; South China market: 4,548 - 4,750 yuan [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 582 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,657 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,555 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 588 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 575 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,602 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Figures - Figures include the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River region; the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River region, and Northwest; the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract; the near - month spread of PG futures; and the trading volume and open interest of PG futures' main contract and total [3]