化工日报 | 2025-06-19 天然橡胶社会库存环比增加 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14010元/吨，较前一日变动+140元/吨。NR主力合约12330元/吨，较前一日变动+190 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14000元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13850元/吨， 较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1725美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1665美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11650元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，泰国前5个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口195.4万吨，同比增14.3%；合计出 口中国125万吨，同比增40%。 据中国海关总署6月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前5个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达389万吨，同比增长7.3%；出口金 额为691亿元，同比增长7.7%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达375万吨，同比增长7%；出口金额为6 ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-19 俄罗斯考虑进一步增产 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨30美分，收于每桶75.14美元，涨幅为0.40%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨25美分，收于每桶76.70美元，涨幅为0.33%。SC原油主力合约收涨3.52%，报564元/桶。 2、截至6月16日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油库存增加107.8万桶，或6.2%，至1841.9万桶。周度库存变动显 示，中质馏分油库存大幅增加，轻质馏分油库存小幅增加，重质残渣燃料油库存减少。包括汽油和石脑油在内的 轻质馏分油库存增加26.8万桶，或3.4%，至807万桶。柴油、航空燃料等中质馏分油库存增加110.6万桶，或140.5%， 至189.3万桶，继续自近期的低水平回升。重质残渣燃料油库存减少29.6万桶，或3.4%，至845.6万桶。（来源： Bloomberg） 3、俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克称，如果有必要，俄罗斯和其他一些欧佩克+国家可能会提高原油产量，并补充说，这个 问题可能会在欧佩克+的框架内考虑，并参考分析机构的数据进行评估。他表示："我认为许多国家都可以提高（产 量）。关于具体 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-19 伊朗PX装置停车，市场情绪偏强 市场要闻与数据 6月18日，PX/PTA/PF主力合约分别上涨3.83%、3.45%、3.05%，主要原因是中东地缘冲突带来的原油价格大幅上 涨以及PX供需紧张下的情绪驱动。 一方面原油价格走势偏强，成本支撑PX/PTA价格，主要驱动依然来自于地缘冲突。中东局势当前仍较为紧张，虽 然伊朗与以色列没有再袭击能源基础设施，但霍尔木兹海峡的船只雷达信号被干扰，昨日有两艘油轮在海峡附近 相撞起火，部分船只可能选择回避，船东的避险动作已经开始显现。另一方面，美国直接参与本次冲突的概率增 加，特朗普可能让美军直接打击伊朗核设施，这会让冲突的事态显著升级，伊朗石油生产与出口存在断供风险。 极端情况下，伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡用以报复，这将使得整个阿拉伯湾石油出口受到影响，原油市场供应将 大幅收紧。 另一方面，PTA/PX现货供应依然偏紧，周内窗口内外商积极挺价进一步助涨PX涨幅，周三早上浮动价8月在+20/+35 商谈，9月在+10/+25商谈，较上周大幅提升；另外伊朗142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，重启待定，此前该装置半 负荷运行；同时市场对于国内PX ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-19 金融一揽子政策出台，沪指收红 市场分析 金融一揽子政策将出台。国内方面，2025陆家嘴论坛在上海举行，央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局等部门 发布多项金融举措，助力高水平开放。央行将推出8项政策举措支持上海国际金融中心建设，包括设立数字人民币 国际运营中心、"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新等；金融监管总局将支持外资机构参与更多金融业务试点； 证监会将在科创板设置科创成长层，同时推出6项更具包容性、适应性的改革措施；外汇局将在全国实施支持科研 机构吸引利用外资、扩大科技型企业跨境融资便利等政策。海外方面，美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持 在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。鲍威尔表示，预计未来几个月将出现关税驱动的 通胀上升；中东能源冲击不会造成持续通胀效应。 指数震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡整理，上证指数涨0.04%收于3388.81点，创业板指涨0.23%。行业方面， 板块指数跌多涨少，电子、通信、国防军工、银行行业领涨，美容护理、房地产、建筑材料、非银金融行业跌幅 居前。当日沪深两市成交金额维持在1.2万亿元。证监会宣布 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Shipping companies are attempting to increase freight rates in the first half of July, and attention should be paid to the final implementation. The US - China trade route has seen a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with freight rates in the East and West of the US reaching a high and potentially peaking. The European route has a downward pressure on capacity in June, and there is an expectation of price increases in August. Ship delays have a negative impact on the SCFIS, and the Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [1][3][4][7]. - The recommended strategy is for the main contract to fluctuate, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Online quotes show that multiple shipping companies have reported higher freight rates for July. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 26 was 1705/2870, and in the first week of July it was 2040/3400 [1]. - Geopolitically, US Vice - President Pence said Trump might take action against Iran's nuclear program, but no specific details were given [2]. - The US - China trade route has seen a rapid increase in demand due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. Carriers are actively restoring capacity, with the average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June being 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. However, freight rates in the East and West of the US may have peaked [3]. - In June, the capacity pressure on the European route decreased. The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of June was about 236,500 TEU, and there were 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - Ship delays have dragged down the SCFIS on June 16th and are expected to continue to have an impact on June 23rd. The 06 contract's delivery settlement price is expected to be around 1940 points [5]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran may affect the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, which has a greater impact on oil transportation and a relatively small direct impact on container shipping [6]. - There is an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the statistical capacity in July is relatively low. It is recommended to focus on the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates. Currently, shipping companies are trying to increase freight rates in July and August [7]. Futures Prices - As of June 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 88,862 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 93,114 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied, such as the EC2602 contract at 1430.20, the EC2604 contract at 1243.80, etc. [8] Spot Prices - On June 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1844.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 4120.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 6745.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1697.63 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2908.68 points [8] Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a major year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU have been delivered. Among them, 37 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 557,200 TEU and 6 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [8] Supply Chain - Ship delays have affected the SCFIS, and the conflict between Israel and Iran may have an impact on shipping routes, but the direct impact on container shipping is relatively small [5][6] Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the content other than the potential impact on shipping demand and freight rates due to geopolitical and trade factors [2][3]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-19 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 市场情绪谨慎，钢价区间震荡 钢材：市场情绪谨慎，钢价区间震荡 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于2986元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3102元/吨。现货方面，现货方面，根据昨日钢谷数 据显示，昨日全国建材产量、消费都有所上升，库存下降；热卷产量和库存下降，需求小幅上升。昨日，全国建 材成交9.67万吨。 综合来看：螺纹方面，随着建材进入消费淡季，建材产销存持续回落，由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季弱需 求将持续压制钢材价格；热卷方面，目前板材利润优于建材，产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退 坡后影响板材消费，虽然出口略有下滑，但是短期仍保持高位。整体来看，钢材目前供需矛盾不大，后期关注中 美关税谈判和内需刺激政策。 策略 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场成交一般，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the demand support from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, with the Pb2506 contract ranging from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On June 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -33.19 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount increased by 25 yuan/ton to -30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton, 10,100 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, closed at 16,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,557 lots, an increase of 6,561 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 40,054 lots, a decrease of 1,403 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,925 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,750 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the afternoon closing price [2] Market Transaction - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters' quotes were at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 180 - 140 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead or at a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex-factory. In Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The lead futures price weakened during the day, downstream buyers were cautious and waited and watched, and some holders slightly increased the discount to sell. The overall spot market transaction was light [3] Inventory - On June 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of June 18, the LME lead inventory was 289,475 tons, an increase of 2,025 tons compared to the previous trading day [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 现货价格涨跌互现，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3062元/吨，较前日变动-12元/吨，幅度-0.39%；菜粕2509合约2688元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-42， 较前日变动+32；江苏地区豆粕现货2900元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M09-162，较前日变动+12；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M09-152，较前日变动+22。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2650元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09-38，较前日变动+4。 近期市场资讯，巴西国家商品供应公司数据显示，截至6月14日，巴西2024/25年度大豆收获进度为100%，一周前 为99.9%，去年同期100%。作为对比，过去五年同期的平均收获进度为100%。预计2024/25年度巴西大豆产量为1.696 亿吨，较上年的1.477亿吨增长14.8%。 市场分析 整体来看，当前新季美豆播种较为顺利，播种进 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-06-19 价格延续上行，尿素成交放缓 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-18，尿素主力收盘1789元/吨（+15）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1820 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1830元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1850元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 41元/吨（+5）；河南基差：31元/吨（+15）；江苏基差：61元/吨（+5）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（+20），出口利润 521元/吨（-49）。 供应端：截至2025-06-18，企业产能利用率87.80%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为113.60 万吨（-4.11），港口样本 库存量为24.50 万吨（+4.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-18，复合肥产能利用率33.81%（-3.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.77%（-0.54%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.29日（+0.58）。 尿素盘面价格延续上行，但期货成交有所放缓，现货下游需求跟进亦有所放缓。当前正值传统农需旺季，农业需 求释放，尿素工厂出货量与企业订单天数增加，但在市场较大供应压力下，尿素产量持续处 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-19 现货端表现相对平稳，关注伊以冲突走向 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷651美元/吨，涨11美元/吨，丁烷578美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5143元/吨，涨88元/吨，丁烷4566元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、 2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷648美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，丁烷578美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷5119元/吨，涨24元/吨，丁烷4566元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 在伊以冲突升级的背景下，PG盘面持续反弹，现货端表现则相对平稳，期货端更多反映了对局势恶化的担忧，包 含了地缘溢价。作为这轮冲突的中心，伊朗LPG供应面临下行风险，今年出口量水平在100万吨/月左右，其中接近 80%的LPG直接发往中国。6月份伊朗LPG发货已经有减少迹象，如果伊以冲突导致伊朗石油设施或LPG出口终端 受损，则伊朗LPG产量和出口或持续下滑，我国LPG原料来源将显著收紧，亚洲及国内LPG市场存在上行驱动。目 前局势仍不明朗，暂未对伊朗石油供应造成显著影响，市场或面临反复波 ...