液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-14 2、\t2025年9月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷536美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4407元/吨，跌27元/吨，丁烷4210元/吨，跌28元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷556美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷531美元/吨，跌8美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4367元/吨，跌28元/吨，丁烷4171元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 原油价格近日走势偏弱，LPG外盘与国内期货同样呈现弱势震荡态势，虽然盘面位置已经较低，但市场上行驱动 不足。现货方面，昨日国内民用气价格整体持稳，山东地区小幅下跌，当地供应偏宽松，高价仍有下调，但整体 出货好转，下游存在逢低补货意愿。就基本面来看，目前全球LPG供需格局延续宽松状态，市场驱动有限。供应 方面，海外供应维持充裕，进口套利窗口打开的背景下国内到港量或持续偏高，整体供应较为充裕。需求方面， 淡季燃烧端需求延续疲软，深加工方面下游装置开工率近期边际改善，但持续增长的动力不足。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱，关注盘面筑底信号 跨期：无 跨品 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-14 猪企挺价出栏，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14045元/吨，较前交易日变动-185.00元/吨，幅度-1.30%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.74元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.06元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-305，较前交易日变动+245；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09-185，较前交易日变动+265；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.44元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-605，较前交易日变动+285。 据农业农村部监测，8月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.58，比昨天上升0.19个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为114.86，比昨天上升0.23个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.25元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉64.76元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；羊肉59.69元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.51元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.23 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The remarks of Besent suggesting a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted the US stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with recent days but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term washing behavior, but the overall upward channel pattern is maintained. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities during the pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Consumption Policy Advancement**: Domestically, from January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial coordination to support and boost consumption and will form a "combination punch" with policies such as subsidies for trading in old consumer goods for new ones. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary Besent issued the clearest call for interest rate cuts so far, asking the Federal Reserve to immediately start a new round of interest rate cut cycles and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. He believes that the Federal Reserve may start interest rate cuts earlier, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Shanghai Composite Index Uptrend**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3683.46 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose. The communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains, while the banking, coal, and food and beverage industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan on that day. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.04% to close at 44922.27 points [1]. - **Futures Index Position Reduction**: In the futures market, in terms of basis, the current - month futures index contract will be delivered on Friday, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of the IH contract increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [2]. 2. Strategy - The remarks of Besent about a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted US stocks. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume increased significantly but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term adjustments, but the overall upward trend remains. Investors are advised to look for opportunities during pullbacks [3]. 3. Charts Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50, up 3.62%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4176.58, up 0.79%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.98, up 0.61%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6508.10, up 1.40%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7064.33, up 1.45% [14]. - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][15]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 126774, an increase of 23189, and the open interest was 266298, an increase of 10150 [16]. - **Basis**: The basis data of the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was 4.62, an increase of 4.05 [41]. - **Inter - temporal Spread**: The inter - temporal spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was - 10.40, an increase of 2.80 [46]. - Also includes charts related to open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net positions of each contract [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the strong stock market, the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September exceeds 95%, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - The price of Treasury bond futures fluctuates. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rallies. For arbitrage, pay attention to the decline of the basis of TF2509. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and 0.00% year - on - year change; monthly PPI has a - 0.20% month - on - month and - 3.60% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a 1.04 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and 0.24% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, up 0.50% from the previous period with a 6.02% growth rate; manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a - 0.80% growth rate [9]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.78, down 0.28 with a - 0.29% change; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1817, down 0.009 with a - 0.13% change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, up 0.00 with a 0.07% change; DR007 is 1.45, up 0.01 with a 0.54% change; R007 is 1.56, down 0.12 with a - 7.38% change; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.53, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, down 0.01 with a - 0.65% change [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), spread between government - issued bonds and Treasury bonds, and Treasury bond issuance of Treasury bond futures main contracts [13][16][18]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance [32][28]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][38]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TS main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TS main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract in the past three years [41][43][52]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TF main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TF main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract in the past three years [50][54][51]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the T main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the T main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the T main contract in the past three years [58][60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond yield of the TL main contract, the IRR and funding rate of the TL main contract, and the basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract in the past three years [66][69][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The PVC market is affected by macro - sentiment, with the disk fluctuating strongly. However, the fundamentals remain weak. Supply pressure is high due to increased production, while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation. Although the cost provides some support, the 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Demand from the alumina sector is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking during the peak season and the production schedule of Guangxi alumina [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5016 yuan/ton (-31), the East China basis is -136 yuan/ton (+31), and the South China basis is -76 yuan/ton (+31) [3]. - Spot: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4880 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4940 yuan/ton (+0) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The production gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC is -252 yuan/ton (-231), and that of ethylene - based PVC is -489 yuan/ton (-10). The export profit is 6.9 dollars/ton (-2.1) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [3]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [3]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2481 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 19 yuan/ton (+21) [3]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% is 1310 yuan/ton (+10) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 765.8 yuan/ton (+40.0) [4]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [4]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [4]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The operation rate has increased significantly, and new production capacity is being gradually put into production, leading to an expected increase in output and high supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, with enterprises purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Export performance is affected by policies and the rainy season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high. The 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Cost: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are relatively stable, providing some cost support [5]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation rate is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [5]. - Demand: Alumina operation is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Non - aluminum demand remains weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and downstream enterprises may stock up in advance [5]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is neutral, and the V09 - 01 inter - period reverse spread is recommended [6]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to wait and see [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the documents. Group 2: Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - emotions. However, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the contradiction between the release of Indonesian production capacity and weak stainless steel demand is still unresolved, so nickel prices are under pressure in the medium term [3]. - Under the dual pressure of abundant nickel ore supply from Indonesia and South Korea's anti - dumping policy, stainless steel is under medium - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of domestic steel mill production cuts in September and the marginal improvement signals of new energy vehicle demand [6]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,520 yuan/ton and closed at 122,340 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session volume was 96,355 lots, and the day - session volume was 89,510 lots. The position decreased from 73,889 lots at night to 70,930 lots during the day, indicating continuous capital outflow [2]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had a strong attitude of holding up prices, and downstream iron plants' loss narrowed, so their pressure on raw material procurement prices eased. In Indonesia, the August (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, and the August (Phase I) premium was mainly +24, unchanged from the previous period [3]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the upward momentum continued to slow down. Downstream enterprises still had strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average [3]. Group 4: Nickel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [3] Group 5: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 13,215 yuan/ton and closed at 13,130 yuan/ton. The night - session volume was 130,400 lots, and the day - session volume was 160,300 lots. The position increased from 143,700 lots at night to 144,200 lots during the day, indicating that short - sellers dominated [4][5]. Spot - In the morning, due to weak trading and falling futures prices, many sellers lowered their quotes to promote transactions. The overall inquiry atmosphere decreased compared with before, but as the traditional peak season approached, most downstream enterprises were still bullish on the future. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,300 yuan/ton [5]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Variety Strategy - Unilateral: neutral; Cross - period: no operation; Cross - variety: no operation; Spot - futures: no operation; Options: no operation [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days is a macro - level positive, but the market has returned to fundamental trading after a slight boost. PE supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity from Jilin Petrochemical, while PP has low current overall开工率 but future supply pressure is high with the upcoming commissioning of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's new PP plant. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton (-16), and the PP main contract closed at 7107 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+20), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+20), and PP East China spot was 7040 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 43 yuan/ton (+36), LL East China basis was - 13 yuan/ton (+36), and PP East China basis was - 67 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), and PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 404.4 yuan/ton (+35.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 75.6 yuan/ton (+35.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was 174.2 yuan/ton (-50.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 78.8 yuan/ton (-4.7), PP import profit was - 513.4 yuan/ton (-4.8), and PP export profit was 31.2 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on in the provided content Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery spread: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of temporary tightness within an overall loose framework, mainly due to short - term supply and demand changes. The peanut market shows a significant differentiation during the new - old crop transition period [2][4] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the soybeans 2509 contract was 4107.00 yuan/ton, up 73.00 yuan/ton (+1.81%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 193, down 73 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] - The main soybean futures contract rose 1.83% due to short - term supply - demand changes [2] Supply - side Factors - Domestic soybeans have a short - term tight supply due to reduced grassroots surplus, state - reserve purchases, and traders' reserves. The import volume in August decreased and costs rose, and the drought in US soybean - producing areas revised the global supply expectation [2] Demand - side Factors - Policy subsidies, the summer consumption peak, Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, and the recovery of pig farming all contribute to the demand for soybeans, resulting in a temporary tight supply - demand situation [2] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7988.00 yuan/ton, up 44.00 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8400.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 212.00, down 44.00 (-17.19%) from the previous day [3] Market Conditions - The peanut market was volatile and weak. New peanuts were supported by delayed harvests and had strong prices, while old peanuts had weak demand and low - level price adjustments. Terminal demand was weak [3][4] Strategies - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of poor credit data and a month - on - month increase in steel inventory. The iron ore market has a falling market sentiment and is oscillating. The coking coal and coke market has the sixth round of coke price increase implemented and is also oscillating. The thermal coal market has high daily consumption and rising coal prices [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures contracts declined slightly, and the spot market had average transactions with 91,282 tons of building materials sold nationwide. July's financial data showed negative private - sector credit growth and government financing boosting social financing. Steel inventory increased and production and sales declined according to Ganggu data [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production and sales are in the off - season with a slight increase in inventory. Plate is affected by Tangshan's production restrictions with marginal improvement in sentiment. Before the parade, production restrictions on steel mills are frequent, and there is a possibility of marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, it's difficult for steel mills to cut production autonomously due to good profits. Raw material prices are firm, and the steel fundamentals have few contradictions with strong support on the futures market. Future focus is on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated, and the prices of mainstream spot varieties rose slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 842,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.57 million tons (8 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 383.08% (with 1.38 million tons from mines) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments declined seasonally in July, but with rising prices, supply has strong support. Pig iron production remains high, steel profits are strong, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is high. There are no large - scale overhauls in the short term, so iron ore consumption and demand are resilient. In the long run, the iron ore supply - demand is still slightly loose. Future focus is on pig iron production and floating cargo changes [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black building materials commodities on the futures market declined collectively, and the main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated downward. The exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal. For imported Mongolian coal, customs clearance restrictions remain in place, and port traders are reluctant to sell due to high - level fluctuations in the futures market. The sixth round of coke price increase was implemented, 523 sample mines had a slight increase in clean coal inventory, and raw coal inventory reduction slowed down with a slight decline in production [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mine supply recovery is slow, and imported coal customs clearance is restricted, so the overall supply is tight. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down their procurement and mainly purchase for rigid demand. For coke, affected by rising coking coal prices, some coking enterprises are showing signs of losses. Coupled with Shandong's environmental protection production restrictions on September 3, coke supply is tightening. Although steel mills' profits have narrowed and pig iron production has declined, it is still at a high level in the same period, supporting demand. In the short term, coking coal and coke futures are restricted by the supply side. Future focus is on supply recovery progress, subsequent coke price increases, and the sustainability of high - level pig iron production [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The coking coal strategy is to oscillate, the coke strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the main production areas continued to be strong. Some open - pit mines have not resumed production, and after rainfall, some chemical plants and surrounding power plants are actively replenishing stocks. Large - scale purchasers at stations have increased their demand, and pit - mouth coal prices remain firm. At ports, the inventory at northern ports continues to decline, shipping is seriously inverted, high - quality resources are relatively scarce, and traders are strongly holding prices with quotes more likely to rise than fall. For imported coal, with rising temperatures, the port arrival cost has increased, and imported coal quotes continue to rise [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Safety inspections in production areas are stricter, some over - producing mines are shut down for rectification, and some previously shut - down mines are under re - inspection. The overall supply is still tight. Coal daily consumption remains high, inventory continues to decline, and the coal fundamentals are good. Coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy content provided.