Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The EG basis continued to decline. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure. Overseas ethylene glycol plant changes were limited, and the port inventory was expected to remain stable in the short term, but there were still plans for large Saudi vessels to arrive at the port in early December. On the demand side, the polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,873 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton or - 0.28% from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 3,918 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan/ton or + 0.46% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis was 23 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 62 US dollars/ton (up 8 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1,049 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, and some short - process oil refinery plants faced great production pressure [2]. International Price Difference - No specific international price difference data was provided in the text. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load with low inventory was still supported, but the orders showed a marginal weakening [2]. Inventory Data - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged month - on - month) according to CCF data and 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons month - on - month) according to Longzhong data. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides an overview of mid - and macro - level events and industry trends, including production and service industries, as well as upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - and Macro - Level Events - **Production Industry**: The National Space Administration issued an action plan for the high - quality and safe development of commercial space from 2025 - 2027, aiming to achieve significant development in the industry by 2027 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Seven双创Artificial Intelligence ETFs will be issued on November 28, focusing on AI leaders in the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext, bringing incremental funds to high - tech [1]. Upstream Industry - **Agriculture**: Palm oil prices dropped by nearly 5% [1]. - **Chemical Industry**: Urea prices rebounded [1]. - **Energy Industry**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuated downward [1]. Mid - stream Industry - **Chemical Industry**: PX operating rate increased, while PTA operating rate declined [2]. - **Energy Industry**: Coal consumption in power plants increased [2]. - **Infrastructure Industry**: Asphalt production was in the off - season [2]. Downstream Industry - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities declined seasonally [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights decreased slightly [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On November 25, the spot price of palm oil was 8392 yuan/ton, down 4.85% year - on - year; the spot price of corn was 2201.4 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On November 25, the spot price of copper was 86603.3 yuan/ton, up 0.68% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum was 21373.3 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [34]. - **Black Metals**: On November 25, the spot price of iron ore was 808.2 yuan/ton, up 0.51% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3337.5 yuan/ton, up 0.53% [34]. - **Energy**: On November 25, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 58.8 dollars/barrel, down 1.79% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4108 yuan/ton, down 1.77% [34]. - **Chemical Industry**: On November 25, the spot price of PTA was 4651.7 yuan/ton, up 0.49% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1655 yuan/ton, up 1.53% [34]. - **Real Estate**: On November 25, the building materials composite index was 114.4 points, up 0.55% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 90.5 points, down 0.33% [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - During the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a fluctuating trend after a decline. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has slightly decreased, and the spot discount has slightly fallen. The social inventory rarely shows a downward trend on Monday, and the future destocking trend is worth looking forward to. The absolute inventory value remains low, which is unlikely to have a negative impact on the price. There is optimism about future consumption. Although there are differences in the US interest - rate cut policy, the large cycle of interest - rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not been reflected yet. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected destocking of social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - In the spot market of alumina, there are sporadic transactions, and the trading activity has declined compared with the previous period. There are few bullish factors in the fundamental aspect. The bauxite price is firm. Domestic mines are facing short - term environmental protection pressure, while the supply of imported mines is starting to increase, and the sentiment towards the price is starting to weaken. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without triggering large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. It is expected that the procurement demand will decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the price of bauxite has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, so the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum is - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,330 yuan/ton, and the change of the spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is - 20 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The change of the aluminum spot premium/discount compared to the previous trading day is 5 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,415 yuan/ton, closed at 21,465 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,525 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 157,390 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 271,763 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots, as counted by SMM, was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, with a change of - 2,225 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,736 yuan/ton, closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change amplitude of - 0.15%. The highest price reached 2,741 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,722 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 165,823 lots, and the holding volume for the whole trading day was 390,129 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 25, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change in price compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution; neutral on alumina; bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [8]. - Arbitrage: Long - short spread trading in Shanghai aluminum [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside and downside of Zhengzhou cotton prices are limited, and a sideways trading pattern is expected. In the long - term, cotton prices are optimistic after the seasonal pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] - The short - term fundamental drivers of Zhengzhou sugar prices are still downward, but the decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend next year may not be optimistic [5] - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8] Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton yesterday, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.44%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,599 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. As of November 23, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 79%, 4 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The November USDA report was bearish for the market. The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, driving the Zhengzhou cotton futures price to rebound. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, the expected yield in Xinjiang has risen again, the downstream peak season is not obvious, and the demand support is insufficient. But the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is okay, so the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. Consider a sideways trading strategy for Zhengzhou cotton in the short - term. In the long - term, be optimistic about cotton prices after the seasonal pressure and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5387 yuan/ton yesterday, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of November 23, 2025/26, 154 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 34 more than the same period last season, with 15.177 million tons of sugarcane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced, with an average sugar yield of 7.64% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's supply remained strong in the second half of October, strengthening the oversupply expectation. Indian sugar mills have started crushing, and the sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 2025/26 season. The long - term oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices, but the short - term decline space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar: The recently announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and Guangxi sugar mills are starting to crush, so the short - term supply pressure is high, driving the Zhengzhou sugar price to a new low [4] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support prices at the beginning of the season. The short - term decline space is limited, with a possibility of a weak rebound. The long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and new lows may appear [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5212 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5465 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Some pulp prices in the imported wood pulp spot market showed a weakening trend [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply pattern remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was emerging. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing pulp prices. Although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, the paper mill operating rate declined, and the downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7] Strategy - Take a neutral stance. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and pulp prices are expected to continue to trade in a low - level sideways range [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, future supply will increase, especially in December with concentrated slaughter from散户 and secondary fattening. The supply-demand situation remains loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth despite ongoing demand increase [2] - For the egg market, current consumption is in a weak state. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.45 yuan/kg, down 0.20 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.57 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Wholesale market: On November 25, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.24 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.28 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Future supply will increase, and the supply - demand situation will remain loose as supply growth outpaces consumption growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 3202 yuan/500 kilograms, down 8 yuan or 0.25% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.00 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Inventory: On November 25, the national production - link inventory was 1.06 days, down 0.10 days or 8.62%; the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.03 days or 2.22% [3] Market Analysis - Consumption demand is weak. Although egg production capacity is gradually decreasing, the short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

流动性日报 | 2025-11-26 黑色建材板块成交2252.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-24.70%；持仓金额3633.73亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.11%； 成交持仓比为62.98%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场流动性概况 2025-11-25，股指板块成交6740.41亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.13%；持仓金额13043.20亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.08%；成交持仓比为51.14%。 国债板块成交6167.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.52%；持仓金额8311.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.50%；成交持 仓比为74.91%。 基本金属板块成交3912.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.13%；持仓金额5810.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.01%；成 交持仓比为76.62%。 贵金属板块成交7167.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.91%；持仓金额4384.12亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.78%；成 交持仓比为214.55%。 能源化工板块成交3698.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.91%；持仓金额4525.67亿元，较上一交易日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees stay at a low level. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead smelting are both low, resulting in limited supply pressure. On the consumption side, it remains stable without a strong recovery signal. It is expected that the lead price will continue to fluctuate, roughly in the range of 17,000 - 17,700 RMB/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.49/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 0.00 RMB/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,075 RMB/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 RMB/ton to 17,000 RMB/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 9,950 RMB/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,075 RMB/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries decreased by 25 RMB/ton to 10,300 RMB/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 RMB/ton and closed at 17,045 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,496 lots, an increase of 2,076 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest for the whole trading day was 52,466 lots, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous trading day. During the day, the price fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 17,130 RMB/ton and a minimum of 17,010 RMB/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,065 RMB/ton and closed at 17,055 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day. As reported by SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 75 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly sold through long - term contracts, with few spot quotes. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 80 - 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. As the lead price declined, the discount in traders' quotes gradually narrowed, and large - discount goods were traded. Lead smelters in Hunan generally held firm on prices. Branded lead was quoted at a premium of 50 RMB/ton to the SMM 1 lead, with some transactions from rigid - demand buyers. Traders' quotes were at a discount of 30 RMB/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract for ex - factory sales. Traders in Yunnan quoted at a discount of 250 - 200 RMB/ton to the average SMM 1 lead price for ex - factory sales. With the weak and fluctuating lead price, downstream enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and their willingness to stock up at low prices was poor. The market was filled with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and overall spot trading was light [2] Inventory - On November 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 25, the LME lead inventory was 264,575 tons, an increase of 2,425 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy Overall Strategy - The overall strategy for the lead market is "Neutral" due to the weak supply - demand situation [4] Option Strategy - The option strategy recommended is to sell a wide strangle [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].