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燃料油日报:俄罗斯燃料油出口有所下滑-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:23
燃料油日报 | 2025-06-20 随着伊以冲突升级,原油价格走势偏强,对FU、LU单边价格形成提振,但目前局势仍不明朗,市场或面临反复波 动。就燃料油市场而言,目前市场关注的焦点在中东,伊以冲突暂时还未对基本面造成实质性影响,但运费攀升 与物流的扰动已经显现,潜在风险还在持续发酵。 高硫燃料油方面,随着夏季临近,中东、埃及等地发电端需求逐步提升,市场短期存在支撑。此外,由于以色列 天然气出口到埃及,如果其天然气田生产受损,则可能导致埃及的天然气供应进一步收紧,进而采购更多的高硫 燃料油来填补天然气的缺口。目前战事还未造成实质性的供应中断,但如果有伊朗炼厂和港口在冲突中受到严重 损坏,则其燃料油供应有从源头减少的可能,我国炼厂的原料来源或边际收紧,亚洲高硫燃料油市场面临潜在上 行风险。除中东局势变化外,值得一提的是俄罗斯燃料油出口有下滑迹象。参考Kpler船期数据,俄罗斯6月高硫燃 料油发货量预计为153万吨,环比5月减少103万吨,同比去年下降88万吨。 低硫燃料油方面,短期供应压力有限,5月低硫燃料油国产量处于低位。此外,最新数据显示新加坡5月份船燃销 量显著增长,下游船燃需求表现良好,对市场存在支撑。 ...
原油日报:霍尔木兹海峡航运扰动仍存,油轮运费上涨-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:22
原油日报 | 2025-06-20 霍尔木兹海峡航运扰动仍存,油轮运费上涨 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨38美分,收于每桶73.88美元,涨幅为0.52%;8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨2.15美元,收于每桶78.85美元,涨幅为2.80%。SC原油主力合约收涨2.77%,报575元/桶。 2、美国正考虑在本周末对伊朗发动袭击。美国对伊朗的任何攻击计划都在持续演变,一些人指出存在本周末发动 袭击的潜在计划。一些联邦机构的高层领导人也已开始为袭击做准备,福尔多核设施将是攻击的主要目标。一位 白宫官员表示,所有选项仍摆在桌面上。而推迟几天发动袭击,将使伊朗领导人有更多时间向特朗普表明,他们 愿意放弃部分铀浓缩能力,以阻止美国的攻击。而以色列方面预计美国将在24至48小时内就加入对伊朗的打击行 动作出决定。(来源:Bloomberg) 3、自上周以色列对伊朗发动袭击以来,通过霍尔木兹海峡的大型油轮的租赁价格上涨了一倍以上,原因是船东不 愿冒险使用这条航道。克拉克森数据显示,从海湾地区到中国的一艘超大型原油运输船(可运载200万桶石油)的 租用价格,从上周三(以色列发动 ...
油料日报:花生现货交易氛围一般,价格上涨动能不足-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:18
大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘豆一2507合约4233.00元/吨,较前日变化-25.00元/吨,幅度-0.59%。现货方面,食用豆现货基 差A07-53,较前日变化+25,幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总:周三,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘略微上涨,其中基准期约收高0.1%,主要受到小麦 期货大幅攀升的比价提振。截至收盘,大豆期货上涨0.50美分到0.75美分不等,其中7月期约上涨0.75美分,报收 1074.75美分/蒲式耳;8月期约上涨0.50美分,报收1076.75美分/蒲式耳;11月期约上涨0.50美分,报收1068.25美分/蒲 式耳。5月19日,黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江双鸭山 宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39% 蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.22元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙 江绥化海伦 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:氧化铝现货市场成交连续性下滑-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:17
Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [6] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [6] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, with energy prices rising and downstream acceptance poor. The alumina market has a continuous decline in spot market transactions, and the supply is expected to be in excess. The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [3][5]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,585 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume was 143,884 lots, an increase of 8,282 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 175,674 lots, a decrease of 22,949 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 449,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 344,950 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - The spot market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. The supply side has no negative factors in China, but there is a risk of production cuts at the Rio Tinto electrolytic aluminum plant in Australia. The consumption side shows marginal weakness, and the inventory reduction rate slows down. There is a condition for continuous squeezing of positions in China under the current low - inventory situation [3]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,175 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,901 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 250,405 lots, a decrease of 209,382 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 300,995 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - The spot market transactions have a continuous decline. The electrolytic aluminum plants have stable long - term supply, and the spot procurement frequency is reduced. The alumina plants have no great sales pressure under long - term supply guarantee. The supply has increased with the resumption of production of long - term overhauled capacity and the release of new capacity in North China. The cost of alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and the supply is expected to be in excess [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons, the in - factory inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons, and the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [2]. Market Analysis - It is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. Strategies Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6]. Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [6].
化工日报:下游轮胎开工率环比回升-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 03:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rubber prices rebounded mainly due to rainfall interference in major production areas at home and abroad, a slight recovery in raw material prices, and the support of the rubber cost - end, as well as the drive of the rebound of surrounding butadiene rubber. The supply side continued a slight upward trend, and the demand side had no obvious highlights. However, due to the good production profit of tire factories, there was rigid procurement of raw materials, and the operating rate also showed a slight upward trend this week. The expected increase in future supply pressure will limit the upward space [5] - This week, there were no maintenance or restart devices for butadiene rubber, and the supply side was expected to remain stable. The recent production losses have been repaired but are still near the break - even point, and it is expected that there will be no substantial increase in future output for the time being. With the restart of the previous maintenance devices of downstream tire factories, the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded month - on - month. Given the current acceptable production profit of tire factories, it is expected that the factories will have a strong willingness to maintain the current operating rate. However, semi - steel tire factories still face the pressure of increasing finished product inventory. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber itself is not prominent. From the perspective of surrounding price differences, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the downstream tire replacement demand still exists. Future prices may fluctuate with the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures Prices**: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,655 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Production Data**: In May 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [1] - **Passenger Car Market Data**: In May this year, the retail volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (- 20), the price difference between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,922 yuan/ton (- 91.16), the NR basis was 22.00 yuan/ton (- 27.00); the whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton (+ 30), the 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,715 US dollars/ton (- 10), the price difference between the whole latex and the 3L was - 900 yuan/ton (+ 50); the price difference between the mixed rubber and the styrene - butadiene rubber was 1,680 yuan/ton (+ 30) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.95), the price of Thai glue was 57.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 9.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.40) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+ 2.69%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+ 1.56%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,278,303 tons (+ 3,253.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,975 tons (+ 1,410), the RU futures inventory was 193,070 tons (- 460), and the NR futures inventory was 34,876 tons (+ 13,003) [3] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Price Differences**: On June 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 745 yuan/ton (+ 0) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+ 1.30%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,820 tons (+ 610), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,950 tons (- 700) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance [4][5]
美联储按兵不动,鲍威尔称通胀或走高
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 08:57
贵金属日报 | 2025-06-19 美联储按兵不动 鲍威尔称通胀或走高 市场要闻与重要数据 今日凌晨,美联储6月议息连续第四次维持利率不变,点阵图显示今年降息两次,但预计今年不降息的官员人数升 至7位,明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性,目前的经济情况适合观望。他还预计未来几个 月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。而美国总统一特朗普重申美联储应降息应降200BP,降250BP会非常好。地缘方面, 伊朗总统哈梅内伊称伊朗不会投降,不接受强加的战或和。据悉如果美国干预以色列和伊朗的冲突,俄罗斯威胁 将介入。地缘因素目前仍然相对复杂多变。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-06-18,沪金主力合约开于 785.36元/克,收于 785.42元/克,较前一交易日收盘 0.04%。当日成交量为 164233手,持仓量为 162421手。 2025-06-18,沪银主力合约开于 8932元/千克,收于 9045元/千克,较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 776804手,持仓量 445981手。 美债收益率与利差监控: 2025-06-18,美国 10 年期国债利率收于4.38%,较前一交易日变化-0.01% ...
华泰期货股指期权日报-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 07:01
股指期权日报 | 2025-06-19 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 2025-06-18,上证50ETF期权成交量为89.01万张;沪深300ETF期权(沪市)成交量为104.24万张; 中证500ETF期权(沪市)成交量为173.61万张;深证100ETF期权成交量为5.60万张; 创业板ETF期权成交量为81.88万张;上证50股指期权成交量为3.02万张; 沪深300股指期权成交量为7.68万张;中证1000期权总成交量为21.27万张。 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.89,环比变动为-0.06;持仓量PCR报0.90,环比变动为-0.01; 沪深300ETF期权(沪市)成交额PCR报0.95,环比变动为+0.18;持仓量PCR报0.86,环比变动为+0.01; 中证500ETF期权(沪市)成交额PCR报0.97,环比变动为+0.08;持仓量PCR报1.05,环比变动为-0.06 ; 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.94 ,环比变动为-0.60;持仓量PCR报0.99;环比变动为+0.03; 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报1.09,环比变动为+0.05 ;持仓量P ...
关注金融业开放政策推进
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the advancement of the new energy upstream raw material production in the production industry and the promotion of financial industry opening - up policies in the service industry [1][2] - Monitor the trends of upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries, as well as the recent slight decline in credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries [3][4][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Mid - view Event Overview Production Industry - The "Fujian Province Hydrogen Energy Industry Innovation and Development Medium - and Long - Term Plan (2025 - 2035)" aims to achieve a green hydrogen production capacity of 30,000 tons/year and a hydrogen - based green fuel production capacity of 100,000 tons/year with a total hydrogen energy industry output value exceeding 60 billion yuan/year from 2025 - 2030. From 2030 - 2035, it aims to form an industrial system with diverse application scenarios and a total output value exceeding 300 billion yuan/year [1] Service Industry - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange drafted the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of Cross - border Investment and Financing Foreign Exchange Management (Draft for Comment)" involving three aspects: deepening cross - border investment foreign exchange management reform, cross - border financing foreign exchange management reform, and optimizing the facilitation of capital project income payments [2] - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced eight major financial opening - up measures in Shanghai, including setting up a transaction reporting repository, a digital RMB international operation center, a personal credit reporting agency, etc. [2] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - International crude oil prices are continuously rising, while egg prices are continuously falling [3] Mid - stream - The PX operating rate is at a high level, and the urea operating rate is continuously rising [4] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year and at a near - three - year low. Domestic flight frequencies are cyclically decreasing [5] 3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [6] 4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 6/18) | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 60.79 | 66.88 | 59.28 | 56.87 | 0.00 | | Mining | 32.93 | 44.31 | 39.39 | 39.73 | 10.20 | | Chemical Industry | 71.19 | 59.18 | 20.99 | 50.48 | 0.20 | | Steel | 39.49 | 21.93 | 46.91 | 48.18 | 12.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 41.14 | 55.28 | 51.00 | 20.59 | 11.60 | | Electronics | 58.53 | 68.99 | 28.89 | 64.45 | 19.00 | | Automobile | 58.68 | 46.21 | 41.64 | 41.55 | 0.90 | | Household Appliances | 40.37 | 49.64 | 46.68 | 48.10 | 15.00 | | Food and Beverage | 40.25 | 41.59 | 36.25 | 37.52 | 4.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 48.03 | 51.98 | 51.69 | 52.77 | 12.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 46.71 | 159.30 | 145.95 | 146.85 | 7.60 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 52.64 | 68.67 | 59.40 | 57.89 | 7.30 | | Public Utilities | 24.62 | 30.71 | 27.04 | 26.96 | 9.40 | | Transportation | 30.29 | 34.77 | 31.18 | 31.11 | 6.10 | | Real Estate | 219.38 | 117.08 | 103.67 | 102.13 | 4.80 | | Commerce and Trade | 42.35 | 47.40 | 41.84 | 42.96 | 5.60 | | Leisure Services | 75.74 | 122.67 | 122.09 | 123.60 | 98.70 | | Banking | 26.58 | 18.03 | 18.01 | 17.09 | 2.60 | | Non - banking Finance | 26.45 | 31.70 | 29.51 | 29.12 | 6.60 | | Comprehensive | 66.51 | 47.54 | 42.20 | 42.27 | 2.00 | | Building Materials | 33.99 | 43.29 | 38.25 | 39.05 | 9.90 | | Building Decoration | 40.92 | 53.96 | 60.30 | 51.44 | 11.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 48.87 | 80.41 | 79.15 | 80.50 | 45.40 | | Machinery and Equipment | 29.54 | 46.61 | 43.99 | 44.63 | 27.30 | | Computer | 66.64 | 55.32 | 46.46 | 48.05 | 0.40 | | Media | 232.69 | 42.80 | 39.69 | 40.20 | 1.50 | | Communications | 29.66 | 24.94 | 25.36 | 26.40 | 2.80 | [51] 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 6/17) | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 2335.7 | 1.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 5.6 | - 3.95% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 8848.0 | 2.53% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 14846.5 | 1.53% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 6/17 | 20.2 | - 0.34% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 78740.0 | - 0.70% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 22008.0 | - 0.62% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 20633.3 | 2.18% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 120008.3 | - 2.34% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 16800.0 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3062.3 | - 0.90% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 736.6 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3252.5 | - 0.46% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 6/17 | 13.8 | 0.00% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 13718.3 | 0.35% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 831.1 | 0.81% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 71.8 | 9.92% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 6/17 | 73.2 | 9.23% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 3960.0 | - 0.95% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 731.0 | - 2.27% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 5045.0 | 3.37% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 7438.3 | 1.04% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1820.0 | - 0.09% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 6/17 | 1370.0 | 0.00% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 6/17 | 140.5 | - 0.27% | | | Real Estate | Building materials comprehensive index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 111.8 | 0.18% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 6/17 | 99.0 | - 0.11% | | [52]
FICC日报:美联储维持利率不变,点阵图凸显内部分歧-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:25
FICC日报 | 2025-06-19 美联储维持利率不变,点阵图凸显内部分歧 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半,4月出口整体略超预期,但转口支撑的特征明显,叠加中美关税缓和, 短期出口有支撑;但4月投资数据有所走弱,尤其是地产边际压力再增;4月财政收入和支出同步回升,收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑;同时消费也略有承压。中国5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%,较前值继续回落,主 要受制造业拖累,美国关税的不利影响显现。中国5月消费走强,工业生产偏弱,投资三大分项增速均下行,国内 经济基础仍待夯实。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%,略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%,进口下降3.4%。从 集装箱的船运数据来看,5月上旬出口有所改善,但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下,前 期透支的需求会重新回到偏弱的去库周期中。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求,关注财政进一步加码 的可能。6月9-10日,中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行,落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致,就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。2025年陆家嘴论 ...
国债期货日报:政策呵护期内,国债期货涨跌分化-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:24
国债期货日报 | 2025-06-19 政策呵护期内,国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策:5月7日国新办发布会上,央行宣布落实适度宽松政策,推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施,包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调,同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款,强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制,旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期,推动经济高质量发展;5月10日,中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈,为时两天;5月12日,中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》,声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施,对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ;5月20日,中国人民银行公布LPR下调:1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%,5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%,为近半年首次下调。同日,多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率,涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施,延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。 2)通胀 ...