Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Core Views - The steel market continues to face weak realities, with steel prices oscillating. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. The fundamentals of finished products have not changed, and the high iron - water cost provides support. Attention should be paid to the impact of upcoming meetings on the market and subsequent changes in supply - demand patterns [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with prices fluctuating within a range. Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices, and the current overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high. Under the current situation of both supply and demand being strong, the price is expected to remain range - bound [3]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a cautious sentiment, with prices fluctuating. After the holiday, coking coal supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains in a loose pattern. Coke supply has slightly decreased due to weather - related logistics disruptions, and market demand has not improved significantly [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is in the off - season, with downstream daily consumption declining and coal prices showing a weak trend. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summaries by Related Content Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3096 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3286 yuan/ton. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.62 million tons, and total inventory was 659.64 million tons, an increase of 57.39 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons, and total inventory was 329.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29.92 million tons. The national building materials trading volume was 11.99 million tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, the traditional peak season is more than half over, terminal demand is still weak, and high inventories have not been alleviated. For plates, after the holiday, prices are relatively stable, and consumption shows resilience. In the short - term, the fundamentals of finished products remain unchanged, and high iron - water costs provide support [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a downward bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price rose slightly. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports increased. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. This period's hot - metal production decreased by 0.27 million tons week - on - week. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 98.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 397.46%. The total transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 145.5 million tons (11 transactions), a week - on - week decrease of 40% (with the mine's transaction volume being 128.5 million tons) [3]. - **Logic and View**: Macro - level strong policy expectations intermittently boost commodity prices. Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, supply is relatively loose at high prices, and there is strong consumption resilience under high hot - metal production. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In the short - term, with both supply and demand being strong, the price will remain range - bound [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke showed an oscillating trend. As of the close, the coking coal 2601 contract rose 1.57%, and the coke 2601 contract rose 0.52%. For imported coal, customs clearance has resumed, traders' enthusiasm for quoting is average, prices fluctuate with the market, and the trading atmosphere is cold [5]. - **Logic and View**: For coking coal, after the holiday, supply is gradually recovering, and the market remains loose. In the short - term, demand is mainly for inventory consumption, and downstream enterprises' purchasing sentiment is cautious. For coke, affected by northern weather, logistics and transportation are blocked, supply has slightly decreased, and downstream steel mills' profits have declined, with purchases mainly for rigid demand, and market demand has not improved significantly [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the prices of thermal coal in major production areas fluctuated slightly. It is the off - season, the number of coal - pulling trucks at stations and some mines has significantly decreased, and terminal procurement is strongly pressing down prices. In the port market, the sentiment is average, downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the transaction price center has slightly declined. For imported coal, prices are stable, trading activity has slightly decreased, and market participants have different views on the future market, with overall trading being cold [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: It is the off - season for thermal coal, downstream daily consumption has declined, and port inventories have accumulated. In the short - term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for L and PP [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the accumulation of petrochemical inventory, new device production, and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend of polyolefins. For PE, the supply increases significantly, while the demand improvement is limited, and the cost - side support weakens. For PP, the supply is restricted by high raw material prices and maintenance, the demand recovery is slow, and the cost support is weak. Overall, the weak demand restricts the upward space of polyolefins, and PP's profit level also limits its downward space [2][3]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7077 yuan/ton (-76), and that of the PP main contract is 6745 yuan/ton (-107). LL North China spot is 7000 yuan/ton (-120), LL East China spot is 7140 yuan/ton (+0), and PP East China spot is 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -77 yuan/ton (-44), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (+76), and PP East China basis is 5 yuan/ton (+107) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 247.7 yuan/ton (+72.5), PP oil - based production profit is -382.3 yuan/ton (+72.5), and PDH - based PP production profit is -224.0 yuan/ton (+40.0) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is -41.5 yuan/ton (-0.1), PP import profit is -517.2 yuan/ton (-0.1), and PP export profit is 13.4 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 35.6% (+2.8%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 52.9% (+0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.3% (+0.4%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, the petrochemical inventory accumulates significantly. The supply pressure from new device production and weak cost - side support drive the downward trend. The supply increases due to the commissioning of a 500,000 - ton LDPE device, the resumption of previous maintenance devices, and concentrated arrival of imported resources. In October, the demand in the "Silver October" period has no obvious improvement, the procurement rhythm is slow, and the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The cost - side support weakens due to OPEC+ increasing oil production [2]. - **PP**: The supply is restricted by high propylene prices, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises decreases. In October, a 400,000 - ton/year device in Guangxi is expected to be put into production, but the return of some devices may be blocked. The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season fails to meet expectations, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the cost support is weak [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: Reverse spread for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [4]. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-10-10 节后累库，关注下游采购情况 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4769元/吨（-70）；华东基差-149元/吨（-10）;华南基差-59元/吨（+20）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4620元/吨（-80）；华南电石法报价4710元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-775元/吨（+9）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-558元/吨（+87）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.0万吨（-1.9）；PVC社会库存53.8万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率81.76%（+1.75%）； PVC乙烯法开工率78.54%（+1.33%）；PVC开工率80.80%（+1.63%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量77.6万吨（+1.7）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1509元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow. For BR, although there are still device overhauls in October, the overall supply remains abundant. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of BR, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,325 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August 2025 and an 82% increase from the 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Rubber Imports - In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 4.73% increase from the previous month and a 7.79% increase year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 5.373 million tons, a 19.06% cumulative increase year - on - year [2] Tire Exports - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 650,000 tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a 4.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 626,000 tons, a 4.8% increase year - on - year; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year - on - year. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 47.86 billion pieces, a 5.6% increase year - on - year [2] Automobile Production, Sales and Exports - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% increase year - on - year, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a 13.7% increase year - on - year. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, an 87.3% increase year - on - year [3] Rubber Exports from Cote d'Ivoire - According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, the total rubber export volume from Cote d'Ivoire was 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the 920,000 tons in the same period in 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the RU basis was - 715 yuan/ton (- 35), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 565 yuan/ton (+ 135), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,969 yuan/ton (+ 329.89), the NR basis was 760.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole - latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+ 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+ 40), the spread between whole - latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (+ 250); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,050 yuan/ton (+ 250) [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.47 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.47), the price of Thai glue was 53.90 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.45), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.45) [4][5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.39% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.64% (- 0.10%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 149,810 tons (+ 390), and the NR futures inventory was 42,034 tons (- 908) [6] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 9, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 175), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,250 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,773 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.95% (+ 2.90%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,700 tons (unchanged), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,600 tons (unchanged) [6] Strategy - **Natural Rubber (RU and NR)**: Maintain a neutral view. After the domestic rubber dumping news was confirmed before the holiday, negative news was exhausted, and market pessimism decreased. During the holiday, rainfall in Thailand decreased, and raw material prices declined slightly. Supported by demand, the decline in raw material prices was small. With the reduction of rainfall, the output of natural rubber is expected to continue to rise. The return of the heavy - truck sales growth in September in China and the resumption of tire factory operating rates after the long - holiday will lead to a situation of strong supply and demand for natural rubber. NR may rebound due to its large previous decline, while RU still has inventory pressure. The short - term price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [7] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: Maintain a neutral view. There are still device overhauls for the upstream of butadiene rubber in October, and the output may be the same as in September. However, the overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period last year, and the abundant supply situation remains unchanged. After the long - holiday, the increase in tire factory operating rates will support the price of butadiene rubber, but the price of upstream butadiene raw materials may have a negative impact [7]

策略 FICC日报 | 2025-10-10 有色板块爆发，沪指站上3900点 市场分析 对稀土等出口管制。国内方面，我国域外管辖迈出坚实一步。商务部发布公告，宣布对境外相关稀土物项和稀土 相关技术实施出口管制，并将反无人机技术公司等14家外国实体列入不可靠实体清单。商务部还会同海关总署连 发4则公告，宣布对超硬材料、部分稀土设备和原辅料、部分中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料等相关物项实 施出口管制。海外方面，哈马斯高级官员、首席谈判代表哈利勒·哈亚发表声明宣布达成停火协议，哈利勒·哈亚表 示，哈马斯已从包括美国在内的调解方那里获得了保证，"加沙战争已经结束"。美国方面，美国共和党提出的结 束美国政府停摆的法案未能在参议院获得足够票数，法案未获通过。 指数走强。现货市场，A股三大指数走强，沪指涨1.32%收于3933.97点，刷新十年高点创业板指涨0.73%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，有色金属板块爆发，钢铁、煤炭、公用事业行业领涨，传媒、房地产、社会服务、行业 跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额约为2.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌0.52%报46358.42点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply at the mine end is tight, and the continuous low operation of TC prices has become the norm, which keeps copper prices in a state where they are more likely to rise than fall. At the same time, the continuous record - high gold prices have stimulated the financial attributes of copper. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 84,610 yuan/ton and closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, a 4.38% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 87,400 yuan/ton and closed at 86,650 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot price ranged from 85,400 to 86,080 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 15 yuan/ton, slightly up from the previous day. The copper futures price rose from 84,800 yuan/ton in the morning, reaching a maximum of 85,980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of over 3,000 yuan. The market showed a Contango structure, and the import loss widened to over a thousand yuan. The rapid rise in copper prices suppressed downstream procurement. The purchase sentiment in Shanghai was weak, and the transaction prices in Jiangsu and other places gradually fell to a discount of 60 - 70 yuan/ton. The Shanghai inventory has not accumulated yet, and imported and domestic supplies are still on the way, expected to arrive gradually over the weekend [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - On October 9, the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects popular with Democrats. New York Fed President Williams supported further interest - rate cuts this year to deal with the possible sharp slowdown in the labor market. The US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chairman candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [3] 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Mine End - Canadian miner Teck Resources Ltd. lowered the copper production guidance for its flagship Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile before 2028 after a company - wide operational review and merger with Anglo American. The copper production guidance for next year is adjusted to 20 - 23.5 tons, previously 28 - 31 tons. The expected production for the year after next is 24 - 27.5 tons, and 22 - 25.5 tons in 2028, all lower than previous forecasts, mainly due to tailings problems related to mine waste treatment [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group expects global copper mine production to increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Global refined copper production is expected to increase by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Global refined copper apparent consumption is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. There will be a supply surplus of about 178,000 tons in 2025 and a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. European copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper selling price for 2026 to a record high of $315 per ton premium over LME copper prices [5] 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - According to the Mysteel survey, the long National Day holiday had little impact on the production and sales of most enterprises, and the resumption of work was in line with expectations. With the resumption of work, the output of copper rod enterprises recovered. After the holiday, the supply and demand of the copper rod market both showed an upward trend, and the market activity increased significantly [6] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 139,475 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,880 tons to 29,703 tons. On October 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 166,300 tons, a change of 18,000 tons from the previous week [7] 3.5 Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is put on hold, and for options, a short put at 85,000 yuan/ton is suggested [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan in the second half of 2026 will significantly increase palm oil consumption and support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 342 yuan or 3.71% from the previous day; the soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8,332 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan or 2.36%; the rapeseed oil 2601 contract closed at 10,248 yuan/ton, up 204 yuan or 2.03% [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan or 4.07%, with a spot basis of P01 + -120 yuan, up 28 yuan. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.77%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 188 yuan, up 38 yuan. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,500 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan or 2.14%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 252 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - **Import Prices**: Argentina's soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,114 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous day; (January shipment) was 1,107 dollars/ton, down 17 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) C&F price was 1,095 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 1,075 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton. Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price was 510 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; (January shipment) was 520 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton. US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton; US West soybeans (November shipment) was 438 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) was 483 dollars/ton, up 8 dollars/ton [2] - **Import Premiums**: Mexican Gulf (November shipment) soybean import premium was 220 cents/bushel, down 12 cents/bushel; US West Coast (November shipment) was 165 cents/bushel, unchanged; Brazilian ports (November shipment) was 285 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the 2024/25 market year, China's edible vegetable oil production was 3,144 million tons. Due to increased production, the import volume of edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 was reduced by 500,000 tons to 7.06 million tons, with palm oil and sunflower oil imports reduced by 300,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively. The average ex - factory prices of national standard third - grade soybean oil, third - grade rapeseed oil, and first - grade peanut oil in 2024/25 were 8,089 yuan/ton, 9,585 yuan/ton, and 14,635 yuan/ton respectively, all within the estimated range. There were no adjustments to the supply - demand forecast data for China's edible vegetable oil in 2025/26 [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on September 30, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to reflect the market conditions of these options. 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On September 30, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1473700 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 1447200 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 1529500 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 127900 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1374900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 51800 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 stock index options was 176000 contracts; the total trading volume of China Securities 1000 options was 267700 contracts [1]. - The detailed trading volume data of call and put options for each type of option are also provided. For example, the call trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 453800 contracts, and the put trading volume was 365700 contracts, with a total trading volume of 819500 contracts [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of various options show the changes in the ratio of put option trading volume or open interest to call option trading volume or open interest. For example, the trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.45, with a month-on-month change of -0.03; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.80, with a month-on-month change of +0.01 [2]. Option VIX - The VIX data of various options reflect the implied volatility of the options. For example, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 18.30%, with a month-on-month change of -0.43%; the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was reported at 19.02%, with a month-on-month change of -0.66% [3].

2025-09-30，股指板块成交7051.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.68%；持仓金额13314.95亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.98%；成交持仓比为52.48%。 国债板块成交4171.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.17%；持仓金额7755.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.29%；成交持 仓比为54.47%。 基本金属板块成交3846.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.34%；持仓金额4876.23亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.71%；成 交持仓比为77.85%。 贵金属板块成交5059.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-35.09%；持仓金额5037.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.25%；成交 持仓比为139.97%。 能源化工板块成交3401.70亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.61%；持仓金额3921.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.16%；成 交持仓比为68.83%。 农产品板块成交2339.14亿元，较上一交易日变动-15.89%；持仓金额5042.08亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.38%；成交 持仓比为41.07%。 黑色建材板块成交2107.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-22.19%；持仓金额3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Manufacturing PMI - Supply: Manufacturing production picked up. In September, the production index was 51.9, up 1.1 from the previous month, and the supplier delivery time index was 50.8, up 0.3 from the previous month [3]. - Demand: Manufacturing demand rebounded. In September, the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2 from the previous month; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 from the previous month; and the back - order index was 45.2, down 0.3 from the previous month [3]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand relationship needs improvement. In September, the supply - demand index (demand - supply) was - 2.2, down 0.9 from the previous month, down 0.9 from the same period last year, and down 0.5 from the average of the past three years [3]. - Price: Manufacturing profitability contracted. In September, the raw material price index was 53.2, down 0.1 from the previous month; the ex - factory price index was 48.2, down 0.9 from the previous month. The difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was - 5.0, down 0.8 from the previous month [3]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. In September, the finished goods inventory index was 48.2, up 1.4 from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 48.5, up 0.5 from the previous month. The difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 1.5, down 1.2 from the previous month [3]. Non - manufacturing PMI - Supply: Non - manufacturing employment slowed down. In September, the employment index was 45, down 0.6 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 39.7, down 3.9 from the previous month, and the service industry was 45.9, unchanged from the previous month. The supplier delivery time index was 51.1, down 0.2 from the previous month [4]. - Demand: Non - manufacturing domestic demand declined. In September, the new order index was 46, down 0.6 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 42.2, up 1.6 from the previous month, and the service industry was 46.7, down 1.0 from the previous month. The new export order index was 49.8, up 1.0 from the previous month, and the back - order index was 44.4, up 1.0 from the previous month [4]. - Price: Non - manufacturing industries exchanged price for volume. In September, the input price index was 49, down 1.3 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 47.2, down 7.4 from the previous month, and the service industry was 49.3, down 0.2 from the previous month. The sales price index was 47.3, down 1.3 from the previous month; among them, the construction industry was 48.1, down 1.6 from the previous month, and the service industry was 47.2, down 1.3 from the previous month [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In September, the inventory index was 44.9, down 0.8 from the previous month and down 0.2 from the same period last year [5] Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: Manufacturing sentiment improved, and enterprise production expansion accelerated. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [11]. Demand: Manufacturing Demand Improved, Non - manufacturing Demand Weakened - Manufacturing: Driven by the continuous release of policies such as the "Two New" policies, in September, the new order index was 49.7, up 0.2 from the previous month; the new export order index was 47.8, up 0.6 from the previous month; and the back - order index was 45.2, down 0.3 from the previous month [19]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the new order index was 46, down 0.6 from the previous month, indicating a continued contraction in non - manufacturing order demand. The new export order index was 49.8, up 1.0 from the previous month, indicating a recovery in export demand. The back - order index was 44.4, up 1.0 from the previous month, indicating an accumulation of existing orders [19]. Supply: Manufacturing Production Recovered, Non - manufacturing Sentiment Declined - Manufacturing: In September, the production index was 51.9, up 1.1 from the previous month; the production and business activity expectation index was 54.1, up 0.4 from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 50.8, up 0.3 from the previous month; and the employment index was 48.5, up 0.6 from the previous month [23]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the employment index was 45, down 0.6 from the previous month; the supplier delivery time index was 51.1, down 0.2 from the previous month; and the business activity expectation index was 55.7, down 0.5 from the previous month [23]. Price: Manufacturing Profitability Contracted, Non - manufacturing Price Cuts Continued - Manufacturing: In September, the raw material price index was 53.2, down 0.1 from the previous month; the ex - factory price index was 48.2, down 0.9 from the previous month; and the difference between ex - factory price and raw material price was - 5.0, down 0.8 from the previous month [31]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the input price index was 49, down 1.3 from the previous month; the sales price index was 47.3, down 1.3 from the previous month [31]. Inventory: Manufacturing De - stocking Slowed Down, Non - manufacturing De - stocking Continued - Manufacturing: In September, the finished goods inventory index was 48.2, up 1.4 from the previous month; the raw material inventory index was 48.5, up 0.5 from the previous month; and the difference between new orders and finished goods inventory was 1.5, down 1.2 from the previous month [39]. - Non - manufacturing: In September, the inventory index was 44.9, down 0.8 from the previous month and down 0.2 from the same period last year [39]. - Comprehensive: In September, the composite PMI index was 50.6, up 0.1 from the previous month and up 0.2 from the same period last year, indicating an improvement in overall economic sentiment [39]