Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The CBOT soybean price was weak. There were some differences in the market regarding the results of the autumn negotiations between China and the United States. Coupled with the strong expectation of a bumper harvest of US soybeans and the record - high soybean production in Brazil, the overall soybean supply was unlikely to have a large gap, and the market was under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +226 yuan and a change amplitude of +2.56%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8344.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +94.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.14%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9615.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +73.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +0.77% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8970.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +170.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.93%. The spot basis was P09 + - 94.00, with a month - on - month change of - 56.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +70.00 yuan/ton and a change amplitude of +0.84%. The spot basis was Y09 + 96.00, with a month - on - month change of - 24.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9730.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change amplitude of +1.04%. The spot basis was OI09 + 115.00, with a month - on - month change of +27.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Soybean Oil Volume - On August 5th, the trading volume of soybean oil was 18,500 tons, a 41.27% decrease compared to the previous trading day. On August 4th, it was 31,500 tons, a 27.59% decrease. On August 1st, it was 43,500 tons, a 29.85% increase. On July 31st, it was 33,500 tons, a 67.32% decrease. On July 30th, it was 102,500 tons, a 113.54% increase. The average trading volume of soybean oil last week was 49,300 tons [2] Soybean Oil Inventory - As of August 5th, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.055 million tons, an increase of 43,000 tons compared to the same period last week [2] Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 568 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 558 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 446 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 440 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 477 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged; the Brazilian port (September shipment) was 305 cents/bushel, an increase of 17 cents/bushel. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1149 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1127 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific commodities, the strategies suggest a "sideways" outlook for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, while there is no strategy for thermal coal [2][4][6][7] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Market expectations are fluctuating, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. The current supply - demand fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with policy expectations [1] - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, causing a slight increase in iron ore prices. The short - term fundamentals are good, but the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply expectation disturbances have led to a rise in coking coal and coke futures. The demand is strongly supported, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - **Thermal Coal**: Rainfall has affected the supply in production areas, causing the pit - mouth coal price to run strongly. In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly stronger, while the long - term supply remains loose [7] 3. Summaries by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3233 yuan/ton and 3457 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume is average, with 11.01 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials are in the off - season, while plates are supported by overseas orders. Supply is affected by production - restriction expectations and cost - side policies, leading to a slight increase in prices [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose by 1.20% to 798.5 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tangshan ports increased slightly, with a 10.42% increase in the national main port trading volume and a 22.75% increase in forward - contract trading volume [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply has strong support, and the global shipment shows a seasonal decline. The demand is guaranteed by high pig - iron production and no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly. Some coal mines stopped production for rectification, and the fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented, with a cumulative increase of 250 - 275 yuan/ton [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply expectations are unstable. The demand is supported by the high operating rate and pig - iron production of steel mills, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, rainfall restricted coal production, and the terminal replenishment demand was strong, driving up the coal price. In ports, the supply tightened, inventory decreased, and prices rose. The import price increased, but the trading activity was low [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: At the beginning of the month, some coal mines resumed normal production, and the supply strongly supported the market. With continuous high temperatures, the demand is expected to strengthen, and the price will run slightly stronger in the short term while the long - term supply remains loose [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [10] Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market maintains a weak and narrow - range oscillation. In the short - term, the aluminum price will show a seasonally weak oscillation due to the consumption off - season and unclear policy stimulus. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily. The focus is on the potential price increase during the consumption peak season. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus, with production resuming due to profit incentives and the speed of social inventory accumulation and registered warehouse receipts still to be observed. The aluminum alloy market is in the consumption off - season, with prices following the aluminum price and potential cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [7][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 40 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,420 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 140 yuan/ton with no change from the previous day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,530 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 25 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,525 yuan/ton, the closing price is 20,560 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton. The highest price is 20,570 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 20,435 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 99,996 lots, and the open interest is 225,945 lots [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 5, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 564,000 tons, a change of 2.0 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory is 44,287 tons, a change of - 2,362 tons. The LME aluminum inventory is 466,025 tons, a change of 2,300 tons [3] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On August 5, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3,310 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 375 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 3,232 yuan/ton, the closing price is 3,227 yuan/ton, a change of 37 yuan/ton or 1.16%. The highest price is 3,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 3,178 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 242,539 lots, and the open interest is 124,750 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On August 5, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 15,300 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 19,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 46,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 64,000 tons [5] - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost is 19,949 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 249 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintains a weak and narrow - range oscillation. The social inventory has increased to 560,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory is only 44,000 tons. The 08 contract open interest is 180,000 tons, and there are still conditions for a short squeeze. The "anti - involution" has little impact on the supply side. In the short - term, the aluminum price will show a seasonally weak oscillation. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [7] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, on August 4, India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at FOB 377.25 US dollars/ton for mid - August shipment, a decline of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the July 25 transaction. The alumina warehouse receipts increased rapidly by 6,627 tons to 13,242 tons. The 08 contract open interest remains at 2,190 lots. The bauxite in Guinea is in surplus, and the alumina production profit remains. The supply side continues to resume production, and the surplus situation remains unchanged [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - season. The futures price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 480 yuan/ton. The 11 contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities are worth attention [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. Due to the recent change in market macro - sentiment, nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, high - nickel iron is weakly stable, and the retail price of ferrochrome is strongly stable, so there is still cost support. With few downstream rigid - demand orders and weak spot trading, price increases lack momentum. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range with a slight upward bias in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2509 opened at 120,630 yuan/ton and closed at 120,910 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 84,818 lots, and the open interest was 90,543 lots. Philippine mines are in the shipping stage, while domestic iron plants are reducing production loads and being cautious in raw material procurement. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (first phase) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium remained flat. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel was raised by about 500 yuan/ton, and the premiums of refined nickel were mostly stable, but spot trading became lighter. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 20,923 (- 247.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 211,254 (2172) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: In the near term, trade within the range for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Analysis**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,845 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 79,826 lots, and the open interest was 85,949 lots. The US may impose new tariffs, and China will resume levying VAT on the interest income of certain bonds from August 8, 2025. In the spot market, the futures price oscillated upward, but the spot price changed little. After rigid - demand restocking, market trading declined, and the overall trading was average. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 95 - 295 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 916.0 yuan/nickel point [2]. - **Strategy**: The single - side trading strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading. The mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3].

尿素日报 | 2025-08-06 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 出口扰动，尿素震荡走高 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-05，尿素主力收盘1772元/吨（+39）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1780元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：8 元/吨（-19）；河南基差：8元/吨（-19）；江苏基差：18元/吨（-19）；尿素生产利润250元/吨（+20），出口利润976 元/吨（-7）。 供应端：截至2025-08-05，企业产能利用率83.60%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为91.73 万吨（+5.85），港口样本 库存量为49.30 万吨（-5.00）。 需求端：截至2025-08-05，复合肥产能利用率38.68%（+5.10%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.50%（-1.70%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.12日（+0.18）。 印度IPL尿素进口招标价格较上一轮提升，提振尿素盘面价格，同时受到出口扰动，市场情绪震荡走强。尿素产量 处于较高水平，供应端较为充 ...

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bearish [4] Core View - If terminal consumption remains weak and early-maturing Gala apples are launched, it's difficult for inventory apples to be sold, and the spot price is likely to remain stable and weak [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2510 contract was 7,859 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.42%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 semi-commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose. The new-season fruit bagging in the producing areas has been completed. The number of bagged fruits this year is slightly lower than that of the previous season. The low cold storage inventory in recent years may support the price, but the acquisition situation needs to be analyzed before the new-season fruit is put into storage [3] - The inventory Fuji in the production and sales areas last week still moved slowly. The water rot spots in the western region affected the transaction. As the quality of the goods declined, the price gradually polarized, and the overall spot price decreased [3] - The de-stocking speed of apples has slowed down compared with the same period last year, and the remaining inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [3] - With the rising temperature, melons, peaches and other fruits will dominate the market, and the substitution effect of competing fruits will be strengthened. The arrival of goods in Guangdong Chalong Market last week decreased compared with the previous week, and seasonal fruits suppressed apple consumption [3] - Early-maturing fruits are gradually listed for trading. The prices of Fuji and paper-bagged Qinyang showed a high-opening and low-closing trend. The coloring of the peeled Gala apples is not good, and there is a phenomenon of greening. The price of paper-bagged Gala apples may be difficult to maintain strong in the future [3] Strategy - Neutral to bearish [4] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish [9] Core View - The impact of producing area news on the futures market is significant. Under the expectation of a decline in production and the reality of improved spot transactions, the market may run strongly in the future, and attention should be paid to the growth of new-season red dates [9] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of Red Dates 2601 contract was 10,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.09%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of first-grade gray jujubes in Hebei was 9.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Market Analysis - The red date futures rose slightly. Jujube farmers in the producing areas actively managed, with sufficient water and fertilizer supply. The fruit setting of the second and third crops of flowers was generally good, and the reduction in production was less than expected. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas and the situation of the last crop of flowers [8] - In the new-season red dates, the jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the physiological fruit drop stage. The fruit setting of the first crop of flowers in some jujube orchards is average. The temperature in the main producing areas of Xinjiang last week was between 18°C and 30°C, and there was rainfall in some areas. Jujube farmers plan to stop watering around August. Recently, there was strong wind in Aksu and Alar, causing some fruit drops in a small number of jujube orchards. Strong winds have occurred in the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to rainfall and weather changes [8] - In the sales area market, the total inventory is at a high level in recent years, with an average daily arrival of 6 - 7 trucks. The transfer of goods and the replenishment demand of downstream enterprises support the price increase of high-quality goods [8] Strategy - Neutral to bullish [9]

Industry Overview Upstream - Egg prices in the agricultural sector have declined significantly year-on-year [2] - Glass prices in the black sector have dropped [2] Midstream - The operating rate of PTA in the chemical industry has recently decreased [3] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three-year low [4] - The box office of summer movies has increased [4] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the implementation of anti-involution policies. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products has issued an initiative to photovoltaic enterprises, including adhering to fair competition, controlling production capacity expansion, focusing on technological innovation, and strengthening self-discipline [1] - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the update of parenting policies. The State Council General Office has issued an opinion on gradually implementing free preschool education, and from the fall semester of 2025, the tuition fees for children in the first year of public kindergartens will be waived [1] Other Information Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry has decreased to 45.97 BP, and that of the real estate industry has decreased to 84.61 BP [47] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The prices of various industries have different changes. For example, the spot price of eggs in the agricultural sector has increased by 7.35%, while the spot price of glass in the black sector has decreased by 3.86% [48]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [6] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by supply and demand changes and potential industry measures. The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies, with large short - term fluctuations and suitable for mid - to long - term bottom - up long positions [2][6] 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8345 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 181,168 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,806 lots, an increase of 494 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9900 (-200) yuan/ton [1] - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 12100 - 12700 yuan/ton. The supply of silicone gradually recovered, but the demand was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 48615 yuan/ton and closing at 50330 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 127,587 lots, and the trading volume was 433,130 lots [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [3] Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The production plan of silicon wafer enterprises was inconsistent, and the production of leading professional silicon wafer enterprises might increase [5] - **Battery**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable. The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 57 - 58GW [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged [5] 4. Strategy Industrial Silicon - The industrial fundamentals have little change. The supply has a certain increase, the consumption increases month - on - month in August, and the inventory decreases slightly, but the overall inventory pressure is still large. It is expected that the short - term disk will fluctuate widely [2] Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the interval. In the mid - to long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, covering option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on August 4, 2025. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 782,100 contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 814,500 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1,206,200 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 114,700 contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 1,064,800 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option was 30,000 contracts; CSI 300 stock index option was 72,300 contracts; and CSI 1000 option total trading volume was 217,100 contracts [1]. - The detailed breakdown of call and put trading volumes and total trading volumes for each option is presented in Table 1 [19]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different stock index options on August 4, 2025, and their环比 changes were reported. For example, the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 1.02, with a环比 change of -0.09; the position PCR was 0.90, with a环比 change of +0.03 [2]. - The detailed PCR data for each option are presented in Table 2 [35]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different stock index options on August 4, 2025, and their环比 changes were provided. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 15.91%, with a环比 change of +0.04% [3]. - The detailed VIX data for each option are presented in Table 3 [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,389 yuan/ton (a change of -16 yuan/ton or -0.36% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,455 yuan/ton (a change of -25 yuan/ton or -0.56% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 5 yuan/ton). The ethylene-based EG production profit was -$49/ton (a month-on-month decrease of $3/ton), and the coal-based syngas EG production profit was 42 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 24 yuan/ton). The MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons) according to CCF data and 427,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 48,000 tons) according to Longzhong data. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, with a slight de-stocking of port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 138,000 tons, and with concentrated arrivals at secondary ports, the main ports are expected to see inventory accumulation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: On the supply side, domestically, the syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the supply of ocean - going cargo is expected to gradually return to normal. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, relieving the inventory pressure of filament yarns. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. There will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. The port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase in August [3]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish due to weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4]. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Analyzes the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the ethylene - based EG production profit, coal - based syngas EG production profit, and the overall load of ethylene glycol production [2]. International Price Difference - Analyzes the international price difference between the US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Considers the sales and production of filament yarns and short - fiber yarns, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip [21][23][25]. Inventory Data - Focuses on the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China, including the inventory data from different sources, actual and planned arrivals, and the inventory situation of different ports [2][34].