基本面疲软，盘面延续弱势 市场分析 1、\t8月5日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4560；东北市场，4040-4360；华北市场，4410-4600；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4450-4640；西北市场，4100-4200；华南市场，4280-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷552美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷510美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4337元/吨，跌23元/吨，丁烷4007元/吨，跌23元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷548美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷506美元/吨，折合人民币价格 丙烷4305元/吨，跌24元/吨，丁烷3975元/吨，跌24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-06 策略 单边：震荡偏弱，关注盘面筑底信号 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 近日沙特阿美公司公布8月CP价格，丙、丁烷均均较7月大幅下调：其中丙烷为520美元/吨，较上月跌55 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - After the previous downstream restocking ended, zinc price rebounds led to a cold spot market with an expanding spot discount. Supply pressure is increasing, while consumption, though showing some resilience, cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a trend of inventory accumulation and putting pressure on zinc prices. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$10.87/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton, closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 85,449 lots, and the open interest was 98,472 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 5, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, a change of -4,725 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: After downstream restocking, zinc price rebounds made spot transactions cold and spot discounts expand. [4] - **Supply**: In July, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, and supply pressure continues to increase. [4] - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, and the domestic concentrate treatment charge (TC) has increased by 100 yuan/ton, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. [4] - **Consumption**: Downstream operating rates show relative resilience, but overall consumption cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a trend of inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On Hold [7] - Options: Short Put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. However, the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious. There is no obvious marginal improvement in demand. The uncertainty of the global macro - economy makes the market worried about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. In the short term, the weakening of macro - level catalysts makes it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper varieties, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 5, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,460 yuan/ton and closed at 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,170 yuan/ton and closed at 78,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The spot offer was at a premium of 80 - 180 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading range was 78,530 - 78,700 yuan/ton. The spot premium dropped significantly due to the replenishment of imported goods and the weakening of downstream purchasing willingness. It is expected that the spot premium may continue to adjust weakly [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5. The US trade deficit in June shrank by 16% to $60.2 billion. Trump said he would announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with a maximum drug tariff of 250%, and would significantly increase tariffs on India in 24 hours. A 35% tariff would be imposed if the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US [3]. - **Mine End**: McEwen Mining expects to complete the feasibility study of its Los Azules copper mine in Argentina in two months, aiming to obtain $600 million in financing next year. The mine is expected to start construction in 2027 and be put into production by the end of 2029 or early 2030, with an annual production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons of copper [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Copper is entering a critical decade. Although the importance of copper is increasing, the copper supply chain still faces challenges. The LME inventory decline has triggered regulatory intervention, and mine disruptions have also affected the market. In 2025, the mine supply is expected to increase slightly by about 1.2% to 23.2 million tons [4]. - **Consumption**: Copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. The rise of resource nationalism poses risks to new supplies, and about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed by 2035 to meet demand [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,175 tons to 153,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,581 tons to 18,767 tons. On August 4, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.359 million tons, an increase of 166,000 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to use buy - on - dips hedging, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7]. - **Options**: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7].

化工日报 | 2025-08-06 原料价格回升，橡胶成本支撑力渐强 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14545元/吨，较前一日变动+180元/吨。NR主力合约12300元/吨，较前一日变动+140 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14500元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14320元/吨， 较前一日变动+220元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1770美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/ 吨。浙江传化BR9000市场价11500元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年6月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量46.34万吨，环比增加 2.21%，同比增加33.95%，2025年1-6月累计进口数量312.57万吨，累计同比增加26.47%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年6月报告预测，6月全球天胶产量料降1.5%至119.1万吨，较上月增加14.5%；天胶消费量 料增0.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of PX is expected to increase, with the balance sheet shifting from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state. The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level, and it is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August. The demand side has not significantly improved, and the improvement still awaits the arrival of seasonal peak - season orders [1][2]. - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR. There are suggestions for cross - variety and cross - period trading, such as narrowing the PTA processing fee at high prices, increasing the PR processing fee at low prices, and conducting reverse spreads for PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - TA main - contract spot basis is - 19 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 4 yuan/ton), PTA spot processing fee is 111 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 34 yuan/ton), and the main - contract on - paper processing fee is 370 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - The PXN of PX is 253 dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11.38 dollars/ton) [1]. 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - PX processing fee PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR; PTA spot processing fee; South Korea's xylene isomerization profit; South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit are all analyzed in the report [6][7]. 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Analyzed are the toluene US - Asia spread: FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [7]. 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Recent commissioning of multiple reforming units and restart of some PX units have led to a gradual recovery of supply. China's PX load is expected to recover successively, and the supply of PX is expected to increase [1]. - Short - term PTA maintenance has improved supply - demand, but mainstream suppliers' active sales have suppressed prices [2]. 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts has led to abundant liquid supply [2]. - The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to balance, but it remains in a low - inventory state [1]. 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Polyester operating rate is 88.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%). In late July, terminal weaving concentrated on replenishing raw materials, significantly reducing filament inventory pressure. Short - term polyester load remains firm [2]. - Short - fiber factories have different pressures in different product types, with cotton - type pressure being acceptable, while hollow and low - melting - point types face greater pressure and have slightly reduced production [2]. - For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. 7. PF Detailed Data - PF spot production profit is 122 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton). PF demand - side orders are weak, inventory remains high, and the willingness to hold goods is low under the drag of downstream production cuts. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - PR bottle - chip spot processing fee is 443 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 10 yuan/ton). After the maintenance plans of several large manufacturers are completed, there are no restart plans in August. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for fluctuations after repair [3].

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-08-06 集团厂持续降重，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13885元/吨，较前交易日变动-55.00元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.99元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+105，较前交易日变动+55；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.10元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH09+215，较前交易日变动+45；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.38元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH09-505，较前交易日变动-45。 据农业农村部监测，8月5日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.52，比昨天上升0.02个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为113.63，比昨天上升0.02个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.33元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉64.30元/ 公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉59.34元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.60元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.49元/公 斤，比昨天上升0.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，当前的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory has slightly decreased without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 rates of CPL and styrene have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure on the downstream, with the开工 rate of phenol - acetone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, the port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, the port basis rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded. The downstream pick - up volume has increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. However, there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, the production profit is average, and the sustainability of stockpiling is questionable, while the styrene 开工 rate remains high [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 195 yuan/ton (+10), and the spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+0). For the inter - period spread, relevant data is not further elaborated in terms of specific trading strategies in this part [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 18 yuan/ton (+4), and the futures 09 - 10 inter - period spread has rebounded [1][3] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 165 dollars/ton (+12 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 153 dollars/ton (+13 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 69.7 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 238 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and 开工 Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.30 tons (- 0.70 tons), and the 开工 rate situation is not specifically mentioned [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and it is in the inventory reconstruction stage. The 开工 rate is 78.9% (+0.1%) [1] IV. 开工 and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 223 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 27 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 53.30% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 139 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton), and the 开工 rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%). The downstream 开工 is at a seasonal low [2] V. 开工 and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1535 yuan/ton (+60), and the 开工 rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 647 yuan/ton (- 87), and the 开工 rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and the 开工 rate is 73.94% (+0.28%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1373 yuan/ton (- 41), and the 开工 rate is 64.80% (+0.00%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper - cargo - distal BZ2603 spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high; for the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread, conduct reverse arbitrage when it is high [4] - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Propylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly under supply - demand pressure [3] - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has warmed up, and the propylene futures market has recovered. However, the continuous decline in crude oil prices at the cost end, combined with insufficient supply - demand drivers, restricts the upward space of propylene. On the supply side, there are maintenance works at Tianjin Bohua and Dongming Petrochemical, and the upstream operating rate has declined slightly. The overall operating rate of PDH has also decreased slightly month - on - month. There is an expectation of restarting the Bohua PDH device in early August, and with the expected release of new production capacity, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, some polypropylene and octanol devices have restarted, providing phased support for demand. The overall downstream operating rate has increased slightly month - on - month, but the sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season of demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price of propylene [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate are provided [16][23][26] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Information includes the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][37] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are given [40][42][45] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-06 美国服务业扩张放缓 贵金属受益宽松预期 策略摘要 宏观数据面上，美国7月ISM非制造业指数由前值50.8降至50.1，不及预期的51.5。新订单几乎接近停滞，就业萎缩， 价格指数则创2022年10月新高。同时伴随着特朗普政府关税政策推进，美国6月商品和服务贸易逆差环比大幅收缩 16%至602亿美元，为2023年9月以来的最低水平，主要由于企业在年初大规模进口潮后纷纷削减采购。进口总值下 降3.7%，其中消费品进口降至2020年9月以来的最低水平。关税上，特朗普称未来一周将宣布药品和芯片关税，药 品关税最高可达250%。将在未来24小时内大幅提高印度关税。若欧盟不履行对美投资义务，将征收35%关税。整 体看，美国服务业扩张速度明显放缓，叠加非农数据导致对美国经济成色担忧以及特朗普关税政策的不确定性仍 存，市场继续交易美联储货币政策转宽预期，对贵金属价格形成支撑。 基本面： 期货行情与成交量： 2025-08-05，沪金主力合约开于782.40元/克，收于782.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.14%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合 ...