新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 多晶硅现货成交一般，盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-10，工业硅期货价格偏强运行，主力合约2507开于7405元/吨，最后收于7415元/吨，较前一日结算变化（60） 元/吨，变化（0.82）%。截止收盘，2507主力合约持仓155627手，2025-06-11仓单总数为59252手，较前一日变化-927 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9000 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨，现货价格企稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10700-11500（-100）元/吨。SMM报道，据SMM统计，5月国内有机硅产 量环比4月上升6.48%，开工率增至62.37%，月内龙头企业集中规模检修，但其他部分企业装置负荷稍有提高，故 表现为运行产能减少，但实际产量增长的现象。6月虽仍有部分装置处于检修周期，但负荷的提高影响下，预计6 月排产仍将继续走高。 策略 近几日工业硅期货盘面反弹 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is a strong and volatile trend, while the medium - term suggests a bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The recent strengthening of the WTI monthly spread and the increase in the premium of WTI Cushing over WTI Midland and WTI MEH indicate a tight fundamental situation in Cushing. This is mainly due to the reduction of Canadian light crude components flowing south to Cushing for blending, caused by wildfires and oil sands refinery maintenance. However, this only represents a local issue in the Midwest crude oil market. Usually, after the Canadian oil sands refinery maintenance ends in June, the situation will recover, and the current price difference will drive more Midland crude to flow to Cushing, suppressing the structural strengthening trend of Cushing [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 31 cents to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 17 cents to $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 0.25%. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.54% to 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the average prices of WTI crude oil in the next two years will be $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel respectively (previously $61.81 per barrel and $55.24 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil will be $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $65.85 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel). It is also predicted that the average daily output of US crude oil this year will be about 13.4 million barrels, and it will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year [1] - The EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel in a new round of sanctions and ban the use of energy infrastructure including the "Nord Stream" pipeline. In response, Russian President Putin extended the ban on oil sales to buyers who comply with the crude oil price cap [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years. OPEC expects that global energy demand will increase by 24% from now to 2050, and during this period, oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day [1] - In the week ending June 6 in the US, the API crude oil inventory was - 370,000 barrels (expected 100,000 barrels, previous value - 3.3 million barrels); the Cushing crude oil inventory was - 728,000 barrels (previous value 952,000 barrels); crude oil imports were - 117,000 barrels (previous value 141,000 barrels); gasoline inventory was 2.969 million barrels (expected 1.177 million barrels, previous value 4.7 million barrels); the volume of crude oil put into production was 152,000 barrels per day (previous value 316,000 barrels per day) [1] Strategy - Short - term: The oil price will be in a strong and volatile state. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]

化工日报 | 2025-06-11 降雨干扰，云南胶水价格回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13805元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。NR主力合约12155元/吨，较前一日变动+105 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13800元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13740元/吨， 较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1715美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号 标胶1665美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11600元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex据中国海关总署6月9日公布的数据显示，2025年5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合 计60.7万吨，较2024年同期的48.5万吨增加25.2%。2025年1-5月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计347.6万吨， 较2024年同期的281.4万吨增加23.5%。 开工率：全钢胎开工率为55.65%（-5.15%），半钢胎开工率为64.05%（-8 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-06-11 中美经贸磋商持续进行，关注美国5月CPI数据 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月CPI同比降0.1%，环比由涨转降，PPI同比降幅扩大至3.3%。 中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从集装箱的船运数据来 看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下，前期透支的需求会重新 回到偏弱的去库周期中。国家发改委副秘书长表示，预计今年支持社会事业的中央预算内投资规模将比"十三五" 末提高30%以上。6月10日，中办、国办印发《关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点 深化改革创新扩大开放的意见》， 推进金融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一 步加码的可能。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈， ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-11 苹果套袋进入中后期，红枣长势较为正常 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7523元/吨，较前一日变动+37元/吨，幅度+0.49%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+677，较前一日变动-37；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+2077，较前一日变动-37。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场整体成交清淡，产区新季苹果套袋工作继续，库内货源交易氛围一般，产地包装发货不 快，客商多自行发货为主。西部产区客商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体 惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大果及好果走货一般，部分乡镇价格小幅松动。销区市场市场走货一般，天气转热，瓜 类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论 价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates on the US - West route show signs of peaking, while the freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June due to supply - demand mismatch, but carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - Some shipping companies announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and the average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [1][2][5]. - There is an expected price increase in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates [6]. - The recommended trading strategies are that the main contract fluctuates, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in June, and some companies' quotes for the second half of June are higher than those for the first half. For example, HPL's quote for the second - half - of - June shipments is 1835/2935, higher than 1635/2535 for the first - half - of - June shipments [1]. - Price increase letters: Some shipping companies, like MSC, announced price increase letters for the second half of June. MSC's price in the second - half - of - June price increase letter is 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first - half - of - June price increase letter [2]. II. Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Factors - Geopolitical factor: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that they would face maritime and air blockades if they did not stop attacking Israel [3]. - Supply - demand mismatch: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the Trans - Pacific east - bound routes faster than during the pandemic due to expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, demand on the Sino - US routes increased rapidly, leading to a significant increase in freight rates. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. III. Freight Rate and Capacity Analysis - Freight rates: The freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June. The latest SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI Shanghai - US East freight rate is 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). However, the US - West freight rates show signs of peaking [3]. - Capacity: The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining three weeks of June is 361,000 TEU, up from 243,400 TEU in May and 326,400 TEU in July. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June decreased, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,600 TEU in the remaining three weeks of June [3][4]. IV. Contract and Trading Analysis - Contract valuation: If calculated based on the spot prices corresponding to the last three periods of SCFIS at 2500 US dollars/FEU, 3000 US dollars/FEU, and 3000 US dollars/FEU, the expected delivery and settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - Trading strategy: The main contract fluctuates. For arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. V. Future Outlook - Price increase expectation: It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August in early June and early July. CMA's quote for July shipments on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is 2385/4345, about 1000 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the second half of June [6]. - Peak time: Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rates generally peaked around Week 34 in most years after 2017 (Week 34 in 2025 is from August 11 - 17). The peak time of the Shanghai - European route freight rates in 2025 is not clear [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The supply of polyolefins is under pressure due to the expected restart of multiple previously shut - down plants and the ramp - up of new production capacities. The cost support for polyolefins has increased with the rising international crude oil prices. The propane price has been weakening, leading to a slight increase in the start - up rate of PDH - based PP production. It is the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand, with the agricultural film start - up rate continuing to decline and other terminal start - up rates being weakly volatile. Terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The inventories of upstream factories and traders are being slowly depleted. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side, and there is no strategy for the inter - period [1][3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure The L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton (+28), the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton (+9), the LL spot price in North China was 7140 yuan/ton (+50), the LL spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (+20), the PP spot price in East China was 7080 yuan/ton (+10), the LL basis in North China was 34 yuan/ton (+22), the LL basis in East China was 14 yuan/ton (-8), and the PP basis in East China was 139 yuan/ton (+1) [2] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate The PE start - up rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP start - up rate was 77.0% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit was 159.4 yuan/ton (-47.7), the PP oil - based production profit was - 110.6 yuan/ton (-47.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 122.1 yuan/ton (+42.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference No specific data and analysis provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits The LL import profit was - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit was - 475.4 yuan/ton (-15.3), and the PP export profit was 16.5 US dollars/ton (+1.9) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 60.4% (+0.7%). No downstream profit data provided [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory The upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are being slowly depleted, but no specific inventory data provided [3]

流动性日报 | 2025-06-11 市场流动性概况 2025-06-10，股指板块成交5126.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+18.44%；持仓金额9879.64亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.12%；成交持仓比为51.64%。 国债板块成交2488.97亿元，较上一交易日变动-18.22%；持仓金额8154.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.03%；成交 持仓比为31.55%。 基本金属板块成交2237.67亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.27%；持仓金额3959.73亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.47%；成 交持仓比为85.21%。 贵金属板块成交4482.52亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.50%；持仓金额4603.73亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.94%；成交 持仓比为125.04%。 能源化工板块成交4039.03亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；持仓金额3745.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.03%；成 交持仓比为90.94%。 农产品板块成交2639.82亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.92%；持仓金额5367.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为45.28%。 黑色建材板块成交2230.8 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-11 新品种上市，铝板块运行平稳 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20160元/吨，较上一交易日下跌50元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日上涨10元/吨至80元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20100元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日持 平于10元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20020元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下跌10元/吨至-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-06-10日沪铝主力合约开于20075元/吨，收于19980元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价下跌25元/ 吨，跌幅-0.12%，最高价达20100元/吨，最低价达到19925元/吨。全天交易日成交149209手，较上一交易日增 加15980手，全天交易日持仓184305手，较上一交易日增加2633手。 库存方面，截止2025-06-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.7万吨。截止2025-06-10，LME铝库存359900 吨，较前一交易日减少2100吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-06-10 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3275元/吨，山东价格录得3260元/吨， ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-11 港口库存总量不高，基差再度反弹 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存14.90万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费163美元/吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费144美元/吨（+4美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差65.6美元/吨（+1.1美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-15元/吨（+40元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差344元/吨（+50元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润196元/吨（+52元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存80000吨（-9100吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存58100吨（-12400吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率72.3%（+0.3%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润137元/吨（-183元/吨），PS生产利润-313元/吨（-83元/吨），ABS生产利润204元/吨（-27 元/吨）。EPS开工率46.42%（-12.25%），PS开工率59.20%（-2.60%），ABS开工率64.02%（+1.70%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯检修峰值已过，开工逐步回升，但到港节奏性放缓，本周港口未 ...