Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel, a decline of 1.54%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 91 cents to $68.76 per barrel, a decline of 1.31%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.28% at 510 yuan per barrel [1] - Eight OPEC + member countries reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking the organization's completion of the current - stage supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule and full withdrawal from the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December [1] - The Russian Federal Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the British intelligence agency plans to create an ecological disaster in international waters and blame Russia for threatening international navigation safety. The UK plans to instruct Ukrainian armed personnel to carry out "terrorist actions" at sea and pressure the Trump administration to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy [1] - US President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to the "provocative" remarks of Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev [1] - After the new round of US sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally bound for Indian refineries have changed their routes. Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariffs, India is avoiding purchasing some Russian crude oil. However, India imports 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for 45% of its total crude oil imports, and there are no other willing buyers under the threat of secondary tariffs, so India has limited room to maneuver, and the recent oil price reaction has been negative [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The slowdown of Malaysia's palm oil export data, combined with overseas institutions raising the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America being realized, increased soybean supply pressure, and favorable weather in the US soybean producing areas all put pressure on the oil market [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,838.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -72 yuan and a change rate of -0.81% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,250.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -24.00 yuan and a change rate of -0.29% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,542.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +18.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.19% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,800.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -130.00 yuan and a change rate of -1.46%. The spot basis was P09 + -38.00, with a month-on-month change of -58.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.24%. The spot basis was Y09 + 120.00, with a month-on-month change of +44.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,630.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +20.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.21%. The spot basis was OI09 + 88.00, with a month-on-month change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Consultation Palm Oil - According to SGS, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 was 896,362 tons, a 25.01% decrease compared to the same period last month - Reuters survey showed that the estimated palm oil inventory in Malaysia in July 2025 was 2.25 million tons, an 10.8% increase from June; the estimated production was 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June; the estimated export volume was 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June [2] Soybean - StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% year-on-year increase - Celeres estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.2 million tons (previous season: 172.8 million tons) and the export volume would be 110 million tons (previous season: 106 million tons) [2] Other - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 574 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 564 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1,155 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1,129 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 468 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; US West Coast (September shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, a decrease of 9 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 288 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current core of the lithium carbonate game is still the disruption at the mining end. With the lithium mining approval in Jiangxi still undetermined and the consumer end showing a month - on - month increase in August, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of lithium mining approval, as significant production cuts or shutdowns could change the short - term supply - demand pattern and drive up prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 69,280 yuan/ton and closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 247,898 lots, and the open interest was 207,770 lots, down from 216,103 lots the previous day. The current basis is 1,910 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 12,603 lots, a change of 5,998 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,700 - 73,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,650 - 69,850 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 745 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. Downstream buyers are still观望 and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - In July 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by about 3.9% month - on - month and about 32.9% year - on - year. It is expected to increase by about 6.4% month - on - month and about 26% year - on - year in August [1]. - In July 2025, China's electrolyte production increased by 1.96% month - on - month and about 48.8% year - on - year. It is expected to increase by about 4.1% month - on - month and about 40.0% year - on - year in August [2]. Strategy - The current core of the lithium carbonate game is the disruption at the mining end, including lithium mining approval in Jiangxi and some disruptions in African mines. With the consumer end showing a month - on - month increase in August, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of lithium mining approval, as significant production cuts or shutdowns could change the short - term supply - demand pattern and drive up prices [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol market shows a pattern where the inland is stronger than the ports. Overseas methanol production has a short - term decline from the peak but remains at a relatively high level, leading to continued pressure on port arrivals and inventory accumulation. Inland coal - based methanol had concentrated maintenance in July, with supply at a low level, and some maintenance is still scheduled in August in the northwest. The overall demand in the inland has sufficient resilience, while the port basis is weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in the East China region, and various import price differences, such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between different international regions and CFR China [26][33]. 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report shows data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [35][36]. 4. Regional Price Differences - Multiple figures illustrate regional price differences, such as the price difference between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [40]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53]. Group 4: Market Data Inland Market - Coal price: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 460 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Production profit: Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton (+20). - Spot prices: Inner Mongolia North Line is 2085 yuan/ton (+20), Inner Mongolia South Line is 2080 yuan/ton (+30), Shandong Linyi is 2360 yuan/ton (+15), Henan is 2220 yuan/ton (-15), Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Basis: Inner Mongolia North Line basis is 295 yuan/ton (+23), Lunan basis is 170 yuan/ton (+18), Henan basis is 30 yuan/ton (-12), Hebei basis is 105 yuan/ton (+3). - Inventory and orders: Longzhong inland factory inventory is 324,520 tons (-15,310), Northwest factory inventory is 216,000 tons (+8,000); Longzhong inland factory pending orders are 230,725 tons (-14,107), Northwest factory pending orders are 112,000 tons (-6,500) [1]. Port Market - Spot prices: Taicang methanol is 2368 yuan/ton (-17), Changzhou methanol is 2440 yuan/ton, Guangdong methanol is 2375 yuan/ton (-10). - Basis: Taicang basis is - 22 yuan/ton (-14), Guangdong basis is - 15 yuan/ton (-7). - International price: CFR China is 269 US dollars/ton (-3). - Import price difference: East China import price difference is 11 yuan/ton (+8). - Inventory: Longzhong port total inventory is 808,400 tons (+82,600), Jiangsu port inventory is 419,000 tons (+10,000), Zhejiang port inventory is 153,000 tons (+15,000), Guangdong port inventory is 155,000 tons (+32,500). - Downstream operating rate: Downstream MTO operating rate is 85.27% (+0.32%) [2]. Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 45 yuan/ton (-20), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 267 yuan/ton (-37), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 242 yuan/ton (-32), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 108 yuan/ton (+32), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 173 yuan/ton (+7), East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 62 yuan/ton (-17) [2]. Group 5: Strategies - Unilateral: Stay on the sidelines. - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high. - Cross - variety: Narrow the PP2601 - 3MA2601 spread when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but the开工 of CPL and styrene has declined, and there is still some pressure on finished product inventory in the downstream, with the开工 of phenol - ketone also dropping. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China will impact the market, and BZ processing fees will continue to consolidate at a low level. For styrene, port inventory peaked and declined in the first week, port basis rebounded, and downstream提货 volume increased, indicating the emergence of speculative demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Domestic EB开工 remains high, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation, especially as the开工 of downstream PS and ABS is still low. The recommended strategies are to remain on the sidelines for both pure benzene and styrene in the single - side trading. For basis and inter - period trading, short the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant - month BZ2603 when the spread is high, short the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread when it is high, and short the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread when it is high. For cross - product trading, short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 205 yuan/ton (- 15). The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 65 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of pure benzene is also presented in the report [1][11] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 14 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the first - month and third - month contracts of styrene is also included in the analysis [1][17] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 153 dollars/ton (+ 0 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 140 dollars/ton (+ 2 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea price difference is 66.8 dollars/ton (- 7.1 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid are - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0), - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51), - 160 yuan/ton (- 47), and - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) respectively [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 243 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 16.30 million tons (- 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate data of downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 90.21% (- 0.69%), 73.00% (- 5.00%), 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and 64.80% (+ 0.00%) respectively [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 159,000 tons (- 5,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 66,500 tons (- 1,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.9% (+ 0.1%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.25% (- 0.95%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 32 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.30% (+ 1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 152 yuan/ton (- 173 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (- 0.92%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Caprolactam: The operating rate is 90.21% (- 0.69%), and the production profit is - 1595 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Phenol - ketone: The operating rate is 73.00% (- 5.00%), and the production profit is - 560 yuan/ton (+ 51) [1] - Aniline: The operating rate is 73.94% (+ 0.28%), and the production profit is - 160 yuan/ton (- 47) [1] - Adipic acid: The operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%), and the production profit is - 1332 yuan/ton (+ 7) [1]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-05 油价回调，成本端支撑边际转弱 市场分析 1、8月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3573元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌79元/吨，跌幅 2.16%；持仓93050手，环比下降23728手，成交169138手，环比下降51344手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3880—4086元/吨；山东，3590—4070元/吨；华南，3580—3630元/吨； 华东，3660—3800元/吨。 昨日西北以及东北市场沥青现货价格出现小幅上涨，华北、山东、华南以及川渝地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，华 东市场暂时以持稳为主。随着原油价格下跌，沥青成本端支撑边际转弱，盘面出现明显回调。就沥青自身基本面 来看，整体供需两弱格局延续。一方面，成本坚挺环境下生产利润承压，炼厂供应增长幅度受到限制；另一方面， 资金矛盾与降雨天气对终端需求释放形成阻碍。不过库存仍处于低位，还未出现显著累库的信号，市场短期压力 有限。但抛开成本端的带动外，沥青来自基本面的上行驱动有限。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-05 观望情绪浓厚，市场氛围一般 市场分析 1、\t8月4日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4560；东北市场，4100-4350；华北市场，4410-4590；华东市场，4270-4500； 沿江市场，4450-4630；西北市场，4100-4250；华南市场，4280-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷555美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷513美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4360元/吨，跌30元/吨，丁烷4030元/吨，跌126元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷551美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷491美元/吨，跌29美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4329元/吨，稳定，丁烷3999元/吨，跌94元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近日沙特阿美公司公布8月CP价格，丙、丁烷均均较7月大幅下调：其中丙烷为520美元/吨，较上月跌55美元/吨， 丁烷为490美元/吨，较上月跌55美元/吨。现货方面，市场在逐步消化CP价格的下调，华东、东北区域有所下跌， 其余区域维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and attention should be paid to Maersk's price offer in Week 34 [1][4]. - The top of the August contract freight rate has appeared, and the shipping company's price has started a downward cycle [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate [5]. - The volume of shipments in December usually remains at a high level, and the freight rate is generally 10% higher than that in October. However, the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [7]. - The strategy includes a weak and volatile main contract in the unilateral market, and in the arbitrage market, it is advisable to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price trends for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Week 32 quote was 1846/3102, and Week 33 was 1760/2960 [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on August 4, and they discussed the Middle East situation, with Russia reiterating its stance on peaceful resolution [2]. 3.3 Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in August was 347,300 TEU, and in September it was 297,100 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September [3]. - Maersk added two extra - loading vessels in August (Beijing Maersk in Week 32 and Maersk Emden in Week 35), and the OA Alliance added one (OOCL/Cosco CSCL JUPITER) [3]. 3.4 Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate top has emerged. After Maersk's Week 34 price dropped to $2,800/FEU, the prices of the OA and PA Alliances followed suit [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the normal price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The freight volume is usually high due to holiday procurement. The price in December is generally 10% higher than that in October, but the risk is the resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. 3.5 Shipping Vessel Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU have been delivered [8]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-05 持货商存在挺价情绪 铜价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-04，沪铜主力合约开于 78380元/吨，收于 78330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.09%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 73,810元/吨，收于 74,060 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.47%。 现货情况： 矿端方面，外电8月2日消息，Koryx Copper公司已完成此前宣布的包销公开发行，此次共发行1905万股普通股，每 股价格1.05加元，为公司带来总计2000万加元的总募集资金。这其中包括承销商全额行使超额配售权所对应的股份。 该公司同时完成了一项非经纪私募配售，以相同发行价额外发行476万股普通股，总募集资金约500万加元。公司 计划将此次公开发行和私募配售的净收益用于推进其位于纳米比亚的Haib铜矿项目的技术研究，继续该矿区的勘 探工作，同时也将部分资金用于营运资本及一般企业用途。 冶炼及进口方面，卡莫阿–卡库拉50万吨/年的高技术一步炼铜冶炼厂将于2025年9月初点火烘炉。冶炼厂最低可以 按50%产能运行，相当于约25万吨铜的年化产量。公司预计，矿山现场的 ...