Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, the lead market is currently in a consumption off - season, with poor downstream enterprise operations. Sellers have lowered their premium quotes to sell, and some smelters are resuming production. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling hedges on rallies, with the selling range suggested between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 10, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.95 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,725 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and holders quoted a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters' quotes changed to a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price, and traders quoted a premium of 0 - 30 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. In Jiangxi, smelters quoted a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price [2] Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,815 yuan/ton and closed at 16,880 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,214 lots, an increase of 8,676 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 43,968 lots, a decrease of 5,599 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,905 yuan/ton and a low of 16,790 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,815 yuan/ton, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1] Inventory - On June 10, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous week. As of June 10, the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, a decrease of 1,950 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead is cautiously bearish, and it is recommended to sell hedges on rallies, with the selling range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 16,980 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to be postponed [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-11 成本端支撑增强，供需矛盾有限 市场分析 1、6月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3483元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌28元/吨，跌幅 0.8%；持仓215950手，环比上涨11329手，成交220645手，环比下降42903手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3950元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3600—3670元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡偏强走势，沥青成本端支撑稳固，昨日山东以及华东地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，东北和华北 地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主，盘面则延续区间波动。就沥青自身基本面而言， 供需两弱格局延续，终端需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏 超季节性的增长动力；而南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同 时，目前市场供应增量有限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端 改善乏力依然制约了市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig futures market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg futures market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - The pig market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to stable downstream consumption and potential supply pressure from large fat pigs [2] - The egg market currently has a seasonal weak demand, and the short - term market pattern of oversupply is difficult to change [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract was 13,595 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton or 0.89% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: Henan's outer three - yuan live hog price was 14.01 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; Jiangsu's was 14.25 yuan/kg, up 0.13 yuan/kg; Sichuan's was 13.88 yuan/kg, up 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on June 10: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.09, down 0.02 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 113.15, down 0.04 points. The national average wholesale price of pork was 20.30 yuan/kg, down 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - With acceptable breeding profits, the supply side will not make significant strategic adjustments. The demand side is hard to improve, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue. The supply pressure of large fat pigs is large, which may lead to a wide - range inversion of the fat - to - standard pig price difference and further increase the supply pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract was 2,833 yuan/500 kilograms, down 4 yuan or 0.14% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.64 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.80 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.56 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous trading day [3] - Inventory: On June 10, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, up 0.08 days; the circulation - link inventory was 1.55 days, up 0.05 days [3] Market Analysis - After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand declined due to inventory clearance. After the college entrance examination, school demand decreased, while tourism and catering demand increased. However, due to high temperature and humidity, the storage time of eggs decreased, and traders were cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Recently, Sino - US economic and trade consultations in London led to a shift in market expectations from optimism to pessimism, and the crude oil price first strengthened and then retreated, causing the polyester industry chain to rise and then fall [1] - The cost - end oil price fluctuates due to market concerns about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes. Gasoline cracking spreads have limited upside, and the aromatics market has seen changes in exports and short - process device operations. PX supply is recovering, and its price spread has declined [2] - PTA supply is becoming more abundant as devices restart, with a slight inventory reduction in June. However, strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects demand expectations. Polyester demand is weak in the off - season, and the production rates of downstream weaving and texturing are declining [3] - PF has weak fundamentals, and it's difficult to further improve the processing margin. PR has high inventory pressure and a compressed processing interval, facing price pressure [3][4] Summary by Catalog Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene spreads between South Korea and Japan, and PTA export profits [24][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][57] PF Detailed Data - It contains data on polyester staple fiber load, factory inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and profits of related yarns [70][72][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report presents polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and price differences [87][89][95]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-11 宏观题材交错，油脂价格震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8116.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7758.00 元/吨，环比变化-8.00元，幅度-0.10%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9188.00元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.70%，现货基差P09+374.00，环比变化 +6.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7970.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y09+212.00，环 比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9390.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元，幅度+0.11%，现货基差OI09+202.00， 环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：巴西植物油行业协会（Abiove）：维持巴西2024/25年度大豆产量预测为1.697亿吨；维持本年 度大豆压榨量5750万吨的预测。据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚6月1-10日棕榈油出口量为285 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and unresolved market sentiment volatility risks, the market is expected to undergo a technical correction after a short-term rapid decline. It is recommended to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Domestically, the central budgetary investment for social undertakings is expected to increase by over 30% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan". Policies related to social security, education, and employment are being promoted, and the basic pension for retirees will be moderately raised, with plans to establish a childcare subsidy system. Overseas, the US and Mexico are close to an agreement to cancel a 50% tariff on a certain quantity of steel imports [1] - In the spot market, the three major A-share indices rebounded after hitting bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 3384.82 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%. Most sector indices declined, with the beauty care, banking, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while the national defense and military industry, computer, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.63% to 19714.99 points [2] - In the futures market, only the IM basis rebounded. On the trading volume and open interest front, the trading volume of index futures increased on the day, and the open interest of IH and IM rose [2] Strategy - Given the uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and the lingering risks of market sentiment fluctuations, it is expected that after a short-term rapid decline, the market will experience a technical correction. Operationally, it is advisable to focus on the layout of large-cap index futures and use small and medium-cap index futures for hedging [3] Macro Economic Charts - The content mainly lists charts related to the relationship between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A-share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A-share styles [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on June 10, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.17%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.82%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.92% [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest data of index futures show that the trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased, and the open interest of IH and IM rose, while that of IF and IC decreased [16] - The basis data of index futures show that only the IM basis increased, while the basis of IF, IH, and IC decreased or changed slightly [36] - The inter - delivery spread data of index futures show the differences and changes in spreads between different delivery months of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a downward bias [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal oscillating, coke oscillating with a downward bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: No rating provided [7] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, and exports show resilience. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Sino - US talks [1]. - The iron ore market is also in a cautious state, with prices oscillating weakly. Although short - term demand keeps prices firm, the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. Focus on off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply - side disturbances, with prices oscillating. Coking coal supply may shrink due to factors, but there are still pressure from high inventory and weakening demand. Coke supply is relatively loose and demand is weak [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is affected by environmental inspections, with prices oscillating. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3089 yuan/ton. The futures trading atmosphere was light, and the spot market transactions were average, with 9980 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is continuously destocking, with low raw material prices and good steel mill profits. As the off - season approaches, building material production declines, and consumption may also fall, but low inventory supports prices. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand, and exports are resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price continued to weaken. The main 2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. Spot prices in Tangshan ports decreased slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 949000 tons, a 11.65% increase. Forward spot trading volume was 1.664 million tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global shipments increased slightly this period, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a significant decline in Brazilian shipments. Iron - water production is at a relatively high level, and inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The market has a strong expectation of falling raw material prices, and coke procurement is mainly volume - controlled. Some coking coal mines have reduced production due to inventory pressure and inspections, and the supply of coking coal is loose. After the third - round price cut of coke, coking enterprise profits are further compressed. Imported Mongolian coal has weak downstream procurement and high trader shipment pressure [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening demand. For coke, the situation of relatively loose supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is oscillating, coke is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating due to environmental inspections. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. In ports, the market is stable, with price differentiation. Imported low - calorie coal prices are falling, widening the price gap with domestic coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and the long - term supply is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Views - Currently, downstream consumption is affected by holidays and shows a downward trend. In the short term, the operating rates of copper products and wire and cable may still face pressure. However, the supply at the mine end is still significantly disrupted. The continuously low TC price and the continuous strengthening of silver drive up the copper price. Therefore, for the copper variety, it is still recommended to mainly conduct buy hedging on dips, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,920 yuan/ton and closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The night session of the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 79,050 yuan/ton and closed at 79,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% compared with the afternoon closing of the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, holders began to lower the premium quotes. The mainstream flat copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in the Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, and then were traded at a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton after being pressured. The mainstream flat copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton, with tight supply. Good copper was at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton, mainly Jinchuan, and CCC - P was still in short supply. In the second trading session, some sources such as those from Japan, South Korea, Dajiang PC, and Dajiang HS were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the market procurement sentiment index increased to 3.18, and the sales sentiment index increased to 3.29. Shanghai copper spot merchants were worried that the premium would continue to fall in the future and actively sold goods to take profits [2] 3.3 Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion", and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop the Trump administration from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon. In China, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day [3] - **Mine End**: Talon Metals plans to raise about C$24 million (US$17.6 million) for the development of its Tamarack nickel - copper - cobalt project in Minnesota, but its stock price plunged after investors digested the pricing. The financing will be carried out through two independent financings. Tamarack is a joint - venture project with Rio Tinto, which holds 51% of the equity as the project operator. Rio Tinto has approved the adjustment of the underground development plan of its Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold mine in Mongolia. Due to the continuous delay in the license transfer, the company has suspended the development work in the joint - venture area with Entrée Resources. Rio Tinto said that the capacity ramp - up of Oyu Tolgoi is still progressing as planned, and the target of an average annual copper production of about 500,000 tons from 2028 to 2036 remains unchanged. Depending on the license transfer schedule of Entrée, the company may prioritize the production of Panel 1 or Panel 2 South. Despite the adjustment of the development strategy, Rio Tinto still maintains its 2025 copper production guidance between 780,000 and 850,000 tons [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Zhongkuang Resources Group announced on June 6 that due to the global shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. The smelter has an annual copper concentrate processing capacity of 240,000 tons and is one of the few facilities in the world capable of processing complex copper ores containing arsenic and lead. It became a Chinese - funded enterprise after being acquired from Dundee Precious Metals in Canada in 2024. Currently, the plant is planning to upgrade its equipment to commercially extract key minerals such as germanium (with a reserve of 746 tons) and evaluate the feasibility of adding a zinc smelting line. In May 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, compared with 438,000 tons in April; from January to May, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7% [5] - **Consumption**: From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 74.87%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week, and 2.27 percentage points lower than market expectations. The year - on - year increase narrowed to 8.16 percentage points. The industry showed typical off - season characteristics. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and combined with the Dragon Boat Festival holiday factor, some enterprises cut production and reduced inventory more than expected. During the same period, the operating rate of the copper cable industry was reported at 76.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59 percentage points. Although it still increased by 2.09 percentage points year - on - year, the phenomenon of weak new order acceptance was prominent. Research showed that as the previous orders were gradually delivered, the new order volume of some enterprises decreased by about 10% month - on - month. Under the dual pressures of high raw material prices and seasonal weakening of demand, the short - term operating rate is expected to remain under pressure [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 120,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons to 33,746 tons. On June 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 149,500 tons, a change of 700 tons compared with the previous week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes [3][83]. - Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing. Monthly production has significantly declined, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. The weekly production rate has also gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6% in May, and weekly production dropping to 162,800 tons [4][85]. - Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases. As of early June, the consumption of silicon-manganese alloy in the five major steel products decreased by 1.04%. From January to May, production increased year - on - year while consumption decreased, leading to relatively high inventory. The three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4][85]. - Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to the lowest levels in the same period of previous years. In 2025, with large - scale new energy installations, the prices of traditional energy and electricity have decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area was adjusted downward in April. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. Although the port manganese ore inventory has recovered recently, the low inventory still deserves market attention [5][86]. Summary According to the Directory I. Silicon-manganese prices are under pressure, and the center of gravity is gradually shifting downward - From January to May 2025, domestic silicon-manganese prices generally showed a "high - then - low" trend. In the context of loose silicon-manganese production capacity, the price center of gravity gradually shifted downward. In mid - to late January, silicon-manganese prices rose significantly due to supply disturbances in manganese ore. After that, as coal prices fell and alloy costs decreased, the market's ability to support prices weakened. From March to May, affected by the US tariff increase and weak market expectations, commodities were under pressure, and silicon-manganese prices continued to decline [14]. II. Silicon-manganese enterprises in different production areas are suffering losses, and production is gradually decreasing - From January to May 2025, all production areas experienced long - term losses, including Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, which have relatively low production costs. Alloy enterprises reduced production through measures such as maintenance. The weekly production rate of silicon-manganese gradually decreased, reaching a minimum of 33.6%, and weekly production dropped to 162,800 tons. Monthly production also decreased significantly, with May's monthly production dropping to 743,000 tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of silicon-manganese alloy was 4.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Production was relatively high in March at 899,000 tons and then gradually decreased [17][20][32]. III. Downstream consumption has weakened, and silicon-manganese inventory still suppresses price increases - The downstream demand for silicon-manganese is mainly concentrated in steel consumption, especially in the five major steel products. As of early June, the demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products decreased by about 1.04%. The inventory of sample enterprises is higher than the same period last year. Although the number of days of available inventory for downstream steel enterprises is at a low level, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts + valid forecast warehouse receipts has reached over 1 million, and the three - link inventory of silicon-manganese remains at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [36][43][52]. IV. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost center of silicon-manganese has shifted downward - The cost of silicon-manganese mainly depends on the prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal. As of early June, the prices of South African semi - carbonate and Gabonese lump ore dropped to historically low levels. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year import of manganese ore decreased by 6.0%. The inventory days of manganese ore for alloy enterprises remain relatively low. As of early June, the inventory days of manganese ore for alloy plants across the country have been reduced to 12.4 days. In May 2025, while manganese ore prices were at a low level, the electricity prices and coal prices in production areas also decreased. The settlement electricity price for alloys in the Ningxia production area decreased in April, causing a significant decline in silicon-manganese prices [54][55][76]. V. Conclusion - The silicon-manganese industry has overcapacity, with no significant increase in downstream consumption and high inventory levels, which restricts the upward movement of silicon-manganese prices. Since May, the decline in prices of manganese ore, electricity, and coal has shifted the cost center of silicon-manganese downward. Although there were some disturbances in manganese ore supply from January to May, the manganese ore inventory has recently recovered. All production areas have experienced long - term losses, so attention should be paid to production cuts and inventory changes in silicon-manganese, as well as electricity price changes. In the current situation, although prices are relatively low, cautious operations are still required until there are significant decreases in production and inventory. Attention should be paid to changes in silicon-manganese production, inventory, and manganese ore supply [83][85][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The peak of styrene maintenance has passed, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. The previous concentrated short - covering of styrene port paper goods led to the flow of styrene factory inventory to ports. However, port inventory did not continue to accumulate this week, and the port basis has rebounded. But there are still concerns about inventory replenishment in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulates in styrene factories or ports. Styrene production profit continues to be compressed. On the downstream side, ABS inventory has rapidly accumulated again, and the operating rates of PS and EPS have declined, dragging down styrene demand. For pure benzene, the operating rates of downstream CPL and aniline have remained low, and MDI inventory has accumulated again, dragging down pure benzene demand. There is still pressure on pure benzene arrivals, and pure benzene port inventory continues to accumulate [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Phenyl Difference Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.90 million tons (+0.40 million tons); pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 159 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 141 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread of pure benzene is 64.5 US dollars/ton (+19.1 US dollars/ton). The spread between spot and M2 of East China pure benzene is - 55 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton). Styrene main contract basis is 294 yuan/ton (-63 yuan/ton); non - integrated production profit of styrene is 144 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), and it is expected to be gradually compressed [1] EB& Pure Benzene Operating Rate and Inventory - Styrene East China port inventory is 80,000 tons (-9,100 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 58,100 tons (-12,400 tons), in the stage of inventory replenishment. Styrene operating rate is 72.3% (+0.3%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - EPS production profit is 320 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 230 yuan/ton (-19 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 231 yuan/ton (+29 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 46.42% (-12.25%), PS operating rate is 59.20% (-2.60%), ABS operating rate is 64.02% (+1.70%), and the downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Not provided with specific profit data analysis in the current content Strategy - Cautiously short - hedge [3]