农产品日报 | 2025-11-14 供需格局延续，猪价震荡运行 市场分析 10月份入场的二次育肥预计出栏时间会在冬至前后，如果价格下降或将有一定提前出栏的风险。从目前的生猪存 栏体重来看未来生猪供应仍处于过剩状态，未来叠加二次育肥的出栏会进一步增加供应压力，整体供强需弱格局 难改。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11860元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.55%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+0，较前交易日变动-64；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.06元/公斤，现货基差LH01+120，较前交易日变动-125；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.33元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH01-530，较前交易日变动-114。 据农业农村部监测，11月13日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.64，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.76，比昨天上升0.10个点。全国农产品 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-14 策略 现货供给充足，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3071元/吨，较前日变动+12元/吨，幅度+0.39%；菜粕2601合约2492元/吨，较前 日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M01-21， 较前日变动-12；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-61，较前日变动-2；广东地区 豆粕现货价格3010元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-61，较前日变动-2。福建地区菜粕现货价格2680 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM01+188，较前日变动+2。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会预计，11月份巴西大豆出口量将达到426万吨，高于一周前预估的377.2 万吨，较去年同期的233.9万吨增长82%。预计2025年1-11月巴西大豆出口量将达到10633万吨，高于去年同期的9583 万吨。 市场分析 谨慎偏空 风险 当前整体供需格局并未改变，下游油厂开机率偏高，但大豆及豆粕库存仍维持高位， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating. Steel prices are also fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Iron ore prices have slightly increased with the rebound of hot metal production, while the price of thermal coal has a complex situation with different trends in production areas, ports, and imports [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3254 yuan/ton. The production, demand, and total inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and spot trading was average. This week, the production and sales of building materials increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and demand slightly rebounded. However, there may be a weakening of demand in the off - season. The production of strip steel decreased due to production restrictions in North China, demand remained resilient, and inventory decreased slightly. The contradiction in strip steel lies in high inventory and production, and export profit losses suppress steel prices, requiring production cuts to resolve the contradiction. Future attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, inventory, and raw material cost support [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices slightly increased. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.28%. This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2660 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore shipments have continued to decline this week, showing a loose supply situation. With the end of production restrictions in Hebei, hot metal production has been supported, and the current average daily hot metal output has rebounded to a high level over the years. The current relative valuation of the Platts iron ore index is relatively high, and iron ore prices face downward pressure, but it is difficult to have a trending direction in the short term under the support of downstream replenishment demand. Attention should be paid to hot metal production, downstream inventory changes, and negotiation situations [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly fluctuating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures declined. In the spot market, coal prices in the main production areas slightly decreased steadily. The coke spot market continued to be strong. For imported Mongolian coal, due to the significant decline in the futures market, port prices were under pressure to adjust downward. Currently, the transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to around 1100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal has dropped to around 1210 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, market sentiment has slightly weakened, rigid demand has declined, and supply has been cut to varying degrees, resulting in a simultaneous tightening of supply and demand. For coking coal, terminal demand has been suppressed, and with the increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance volume, prices are fluctuating. Future attention should be paid to the price trend of thermal coal, coking coal supply, steel mill production cut plans, and macro - policies [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate, and coke is also expected to fluctuate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In production areas, the prices of main - producing areas have slightly decreased. As the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and some coal mine prices have slightly adjusted downward. Currently, coal mine inventories are not high, and port prices are relatively strong, so coal mines are not very willing to cut prices. At ports, port shipments have increased, but downstream buyers are waiting and watching, and trading activity is low. Traders expect a tight supply - demand situation in winter and maintain firm quotes, but downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, intensifying the game between buyers and sellers. In terms of imports, the imported coal market has been trending steadily and strongly recently. Imported coal has an obvious price advantage, and terminal users are concentrated in purchasing imported coal with cost - performance advantages, and imported coal prices have followed the upward trend, maintaining a stable cost - performance advantage. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: Not provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on November 12, 2025 [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On November 12, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 747,500 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 958,000 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,328,100 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 65,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2,019,100 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 44,600 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 120,600 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 315,600 contracts [1] - The table shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 462,600 call and 453,000 put contracts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options, with a total of 915,600 contracts [20] Option PCR - The trading volume - weighted PCR and position - weighted PCR, along with their环比 changes, are provided for different options. For example, the trading volume - weighted PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 0.67, with a环比 change of - 0.08, and the position - weighted PCR was 0.98, with a环比 change of + 0.05 [2][32] Option VIX - The VIX values and their环比 changes of different options are reported. For instance, the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 17.24%, with a环比 change of - 0.26% [3][47]

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices have dropped significantly [3] - Agriculture: Egg prices continue to rise [3] - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices keep falling [3] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate increases, PTA operating rate decreases, and urea operating rate increases [3] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate is at a low level [3] Downstream - Real Estate: Seasonal slight increase in commercial housing sales [4] - Services: Increase in domestic flight frequencies [4] Industry News Production Industry - The National Energy Administration has issued a guidance on promoting the integrated and integrated development of new energy, aiming to promote the coordinated development of new energy and multiple industries, including exploring the construction of computing facilities near offshore wind power bases [1] - The Ministry of Finance released the brief situation of national government procurement in 2024, with the total scale reaching 337.5043 billion yuan, and the scales of goods, engineering, and service procurement accounting for 23.54%, 41.01%, and 35.45% respectively [1] Service Industry - Seven departments including the Ministry of Education have issued an opinion on strengthening science and technology education in primary and secondary schools, setting goals for the development of science and technology education by 2030 and 2035 to support the construction of an education - powerful country [2] Price and Index Data | Industry | Indicator | Price/Index | Date | Y - o - Y Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2161.4 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.40% | | | Spot price: Egg | 6.5 yuan/kg | 11/12 | 4.50% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 8700.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.68% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 14848.8 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.15% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 17.9 yuan/kg | 11/12 | - 0.94% | | | Spot price: Copper | 86896.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.71% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22602.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.52% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Aluminum | 21686.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 120916.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.14% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17425.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.61% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Rebar | 3126.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.36% | | | Spot price: Iron ore | 791.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3302.5 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.08% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.0 yuan/square meter | 11/12 | 0.00% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14766.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.03% | | | China Plastics City Price Index | 773.3 | 11/12 | - 0.41% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 61.0 dollars/barrel | 11/12 | 0.79% | | | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 65.2 dollars/barrel | 11/12 | 1.12% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 4202.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 2.01% | | | Coal price: Coal | 832.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.46% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 4635.5 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.76% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 6976.7 yuan/ton | 11/12 | - 0.50% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1615.0 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 1.10% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1211.4 yuan/ton | 11/12 | 0.65% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 136.4 | 11/12 | - 0.16% | | | Building materials composite index | 112.2 points | 11/12 | 0.18% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 90.8 points | 11/12 | - 0.13% | [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The market previously had differences on the issue of oil surplus, but with the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Since Q3, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will become more prominent in the future [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.55 to close at $58.49 per barrel, a decline of 4.18%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell $2.45 to close at $62.71 per barrel, a decline of 3.76%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 3.39% at 451 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 1.074 million barrels to 7.877 million barrels, medium distillate inventories decreased by 0.222 million barrels to 3.012 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 2.352 million barrels to 11.012 million barrels [1]. - Crude oil futures extended losses during U.S. trading hours. After OPEC+ predicted an increase in competitors' supply, market concerns about oversupply intensified. The organization maintained its forecasts for oil demand this year and next but raised its estimate of non - OPEC+ production for next year. The IEA said in its annual report that under the existing policy scenario, oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050. However, progress in the U.S. government's reopening and the prospect of further interest rate cuts this year limited further price losses of crude oil [1]. - The OPEC monthly report shows that the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 is 1.3 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day), and for 2026 is 1.38 million barrels per day (previously estimated at 1.38 million barrels per day). Despite the OPEC+ production increase agreement, the average crude oil production of OPEC+ in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September [1]. - UK Foreign Secretary Cooper announced on the 11th a plan to phase - out the provision of shipping, insurance and other services for Russian LNG exports by UK companies starting in 2026, aiming to cut off Russia's funding from energy exports and end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. This is a new round of sanctions against Russia's energy sector following last month's sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]. Investment Logic - The market previously had differences on the oil surplus problem. With the release of institutional reports, a consensus on future surplus is gradually reached. Although market differentiation due to sanctions still exists, oil supplies in the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia have increased significantly since Q3, and the problem of oil inventory accumulation will be more prominent in the future [2]. Strategy - In the short term, oil prices will fluctuate weakly. In the medium term, a short - position allocation is recommended, and short the calendar spread (long far - month contracts and short near - month contracts, for Brent or WTI) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on November 12, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows data on the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding amount, etc. of different sectors. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On November 12, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 780.603 billion yuan, a + 22.70% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1389.582 billion yuan, a + 5.77% change; the trading - holding ratio was 55.83% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each variety in the stock index plate [5][9][11] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 310.74 billion yuan, a + 1.34% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 881.421 billion yuan, a + 0.39% change; the trading - holding ratio was 35.21% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5][23][25] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the base metals plate was 449.453 billion yuan, a + 24.37% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 619.636 billion yuan, a + 2.17% change; the trading - holding ratio was 83.59%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 662.577 billion yuan, a - 2.02% change; the holding amount was 471.828 billion yuan, a + 1.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 171.75% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each variety in the metal plate [5][31][32] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 344.529 billion yuan, a - 5.51% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 467.036 billion yuan, a - 0.08% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.12% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each main variety in the energy and chemical plate [5][39][42] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 268.968 billion yuan, a - 8.78% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 591.244 billion yuan, a + 0.48% change; the trading - holding ratio was 43.77% [1] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each main variety in the agricultural products plate [5][49][51] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 194.018 billion yuan, a - 17.44% change compared to the previous trading day; the holding amount was 376.326 billion yuan, a - 1.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.53% [2] - There are figures showing the price change rate, trading - holding ratio, precipitation funds change, and trading volume change of each variety in the black building materials plate [5][60][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. It is affected by the stock market, Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut expectations, and global trade uncertainties that increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, down 0.40% (-4.55%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% (-1.61%) [10]. - The US dollar index is 99.48, with no change; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1207, down 0.003 (-0.04%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, down 0.03 (-1.80%); DR007 is 1.49, down 0.02 (-1.47%); R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with no change (-0.24%); AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with no change (-0.24%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of various treasury bond futures varieties, the capital precipitation trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [14][17][19][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [28][29]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures involve the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread [34][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][45][53]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [55][59]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [62][64]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [69][71][75]. Market Analysis - **Macro - level**: On October 27, the central bank restarted the open - market treasury bond trading operation, releasing a clear signal to stabilize expectations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate on the US. In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding - level**: In the first half of the year, fiscal operations were generally stable, with revenues gradually recovering and key expenditures being effectively guaranteed. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 195.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% on November 12, 2025. The main term repurchase interest rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.415%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.523% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates have recently declined [2]. - **Market - level**: On November 12, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.47 yuan, 105.97 yuan, 108.52 yuan, and 116.45 yuan respectively, with price change rates of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.09% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.009 yuan, - 0.037 yuan, - 0.028 yuan, and - 0.036 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of the repurchase interest rate and the oscillation of the treasury bond futures price, 2512 is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium - term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of industrial silicon remains stable, and its futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is greatly disturbed by policy - related news, resulting in wide - range fluctuations. Currently, the consumer side shows average performance, and policies are still being promoted. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management and continuously follow up on policy implementation. It is expected that the market will maintain wide - range fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9165 yuan/ton and closed at 9195 yuan/ton, a change of (-40) yuan/ton or (-0.43)% compared with the previous day's settlement. At the close, the position of the 2601 main contract was 262136 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on November 12, 2025 was 45936 lots, a change of - 143 lots compared with the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - In terms of consumption, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11000 - 11300 (0) yuan/ton. The monomer industry organized a meeting, and most monomer factories have officially closed their positions and temporarily stopped quoting. The market quotation will be suspended until the end of the meeting, and then enterprises will restart the quotation process according to the final agreement of the meeting [2]. - **Strategy** - Spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. During the dry season, the cost in the southwest region increases, and the start - up rate drops significantly. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the valuation is relatively low, but currently lacks driving factors, so the market is mainly in a state of shock [2]. - Unilateral: Short - term wait - and - see, and consider buying on dips [3]. - Cross - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Automobile Industry - **Production and Sales Data** - Passenger cars: In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% respectively [2]. - Commercial vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% respectively [2]. - New energy vehicles: In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [2]. - Exports: In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 12, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 51890 yuan/ton and closing at 53460 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.43% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 140617 (138468 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 413154 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 (-0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [5]. - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 25.90, with a month - on - month change of - 0.77%, the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, with a month - on - month change of - 7.45%. The weekly polysilicon output was 27000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 4.30%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, with a month - on - month change of - 5.55% [5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.63 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece. After the demand expectation weakened, the price of silicon wafers accelerated its decline, and the decline rate of 183 was faster than that of 210R. Currently, only the price of 210N was relatively supported [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27(0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28(0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.31(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.30(0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28(0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37(0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Operate within the range, and it is expected to operate within the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [9]. - Cross - period: None [9]. - Cross - variety: None [9]. - Spot - futures: None [9]. - Options: None [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range likely between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On November 12, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,590 yuan/ton and closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,410 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: On the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,630 - 86,960 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium of 55 yuan/ton to the current - month contract average price, unchanged from the previous day. The cross - month spread was in a Contango structure, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai improved slightly [2]. Important Information Summary - **US Politics**: The US House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening. The 43 - day federal government shutdown crisis may end. The White House press secretary said the shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points [3]. - **Federal Reserve**: White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman if nominated. He hopes for a larger - scale interest rate cut in the December policy meeting [3]. Mining End Japanese JX Advanced Metals, its partners, and Mitsubishi Materials plan to integrate Mitsubishi's copper concentrate procurement and copper product sales business into Pan Pacific Copper (PPC). The integration aims to reduce costs and streamline sales operations [4]. Smelting and Import JX, one of Japan's largest copper smelters with an annual capacity of 450,000 tons, may cut copper production by tens of thousands of tons in the 2025 fiscal year. Mitsubishi also warned of reducing copper concentrate processing scale. Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the sharp decline in copper concentrate processing and refining fees (TC/RC) [5]. Consumption A survey of 59 domestic copper strip producers (covering 94.03% of the 3.58 million - ton capacity) showed that the domestic copper strip production in October 2025 was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The expected production in November is 194,600 tons, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,124 tons to 44,088 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.959 million tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Basis Data The report provides data on copper prices, spot premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, and other indicators from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [23][24][25].