Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little. In August, both supply and demand will increase, and there may be a slight reduction in inventory overall, but the total inventory pressure is significant. With the cooling of sentiment caused by anti - involution, the industrial silicon futures market may experience a weak and oscillating correction in the near term [2]. - After continuous increases, polysilicon has seen a correction. It is expected to have strong support around 45,000 yuan/ton. The details of the anti - involution plan in the photovoltaic industry are still being determined, and the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium to long term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout on dips [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the futures price of industrial silicon dropped significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,490 yuan/ton and closed at 8,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton (- 3.46%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 176,164 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,312 lots, a change of - 204 lots from the previous day [1]. Supply - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. In July 2025, the output of industrial silicon was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12,100 - 12,700 yuan/ton. The non - affected units of the Shandong accident monomer plant have gradually resumed normal operation, while the affected units need renovation and reconstruction, with the completion time undetermined. The matching degree of transactions has decreased because downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material inventories and limited purchasing意愿 [1]. Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon Price and Trading Volume - On August 4, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely. It opened at 48,800 yuan/ton and closed at 48,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 106,749 lots (99,344 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 296,610 lots [3]. Supply and Inventory - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 5.76%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW, a month - on - month change of 1.57%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a month - on - month change of 3.92%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.00GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.79% [3]. Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading - No strategies are provided for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The propylene market in Shandong has shifted from tight supply before 2016 to near - balance or even oversupply currently due to the high - speed commissioning of propylene plants, especially PDH and naphtha cracking plants [4][12][28]. - After the listing of propylene futures, the market mainly trades on strong macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy is expected to promote the rectification and elimination of old - fashioned plants, which may reduce propylene supply and have a positive impact, but the extent remains to be tracked [14]. - In the short term, the propylene market shows a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists with expected increases in propylene circulation due to plant restarts and new capacity releases. Demand has some short - term support but may not be sustainable during the off - season. Cost support from rising oil prices is offset by supply - demand pressures, resulting in a downward - pressured price trend [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Purpose - Explore the impact of propylene futures listing on the industry and understand the supply - demand situation of the propylene market in Shandong [10][11]. 2. Research Conclusion - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Shandong's propylene production capacity exceeds 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total, and the external sales volume accounts for 39%. It has changed from a supply - tight to a near - balanced or oversupplied market. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and it is a major propylene - importing province. Propylene flows in from the Northeast, Northwest, North, and Central China and flows out to East China [4][12][25]. - **Trading Mode**: Shandong is the national price benchmark for propylene, with earlier spot quotations. Contract sales in Shandong are less than 50%. Contracts are usually signed annually and settled monthly, while spot sales are full - payment locked - price. The flow of goods is determined by price differences, freight, and demand [4][12]. - **Cost - Profit**: The propane consumption of PDH plants is between 1.14 - 1.2, and the theoretical processing cost is between 1200 - 1500 yuan. The full cost of PDH - produced propylene is around 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. Freight varies by transportation mode [4][15]. - **Inventory**: Inventory varies among enterprises. PDH enterprises generally have larger storage capacity and longer storage periods. During the research, enterprises reported low inventory and no obvious inventory pressure [4][15]. 3. Core Logic and Future Outlook - After the listing of propylene futures, the market is influenced by macro - policy expectations. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce supply, but the impact needs further observation. Currently, the market is in weak consolidation. Supply pressure exists due to plant restarts and new capacity, demand has short - term support but limited sustainability, and cost support is offset by supply - demand pressures [14]. 4. Specific Situations of Research Enterprises - **Enterprise A**: Total propylene capacity is 70,000 tons/year, using catalytic cracking. All products are sold externally. Current external sales are about 270 tons/day. The enterprise believes the market is oversupplied and focuses on PDH operations [15][16]. - **Enterprise B**: Total capacity is 355,000 tons/year, with 105,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 250,000 tons from PDH. One of the two gas - fractionation units is operating, with an output of about 75 tons/day. The PDH unit has been shut down for over three months [17]. - **Enterprise C**: Total capacity is 420,000 tons/year, with a 70% load on the mixed - alkane dehydrogenation unit. By - product hydrogen is sold externally. The acrylic acid unit is operating, and the propylene oxide unit is shut down due to profit issues [20]. - **Enterprise D**: Total capacity is 380,000 tons/year, with 80,000 tons from catalytic cracking and 300,000 tons from PDH. Only the gas - fractionation unit is operating, with an output of about 200 tons/day. The PDH unit is shut down [22]. - **Enterprise E**: Total capacity is 600,000 tons/year, using PDH. The PDH unit is operating at 90% load. The enterprise has a low - inventory strategy and is bearish on the market [24]. 5. Analysis of the Supply - Demand Pattern of Shandong Propylene - Shandong is a major propylene production and sales area, with a production capacity exceeding 15 million tons, accounting for 21% of the national total and an external sales volume accounting for 39%. There are regional differences within Shandong. There is a demand gap of nearly 600,000 tons, and the market has shifted from tight supply to near - balance or oversupply [25][27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the roller - coaster market in June due to Middle - East conflicts, oil prices were generally volatile in July. Brent crude oil traded in the range of $65 - 73 per barrel. In the last week of July, influenced by Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil and the sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data in the US, the oil price fluctuation increased significantly. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the oil price movement during the period with less prominent fundamental contradictions [3]. - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [3]. - The short - term oil price will oscillate within a range. If the absolute price returns to a high level, consider short - selling in the medium - term. A Brent crude oil backwardation strategy is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Price Spread: Geopolitical Concerns and Macro - sentiment Once Again Dominate the Market - In terms of absolute prices, after the June fluctuations, oil prices were volatile in July. Brent traded between $65 - 73 per barrel. In late July, geopolitical and macro - factors increased price volatility. Geopolitics and macro - sentiment dominated the market when fundamentals were less contradictory [10]. - Regarding monthly spreads, the monthly spreads of the three major benchmark crudes remained strong in July, with the near - month premium still very firm. The shape of the forward curve showed a premium structure at the near end and was close to flat at the far end. The monthly spreads of WTI and Brent were weaker than that of Dubai. The short - end structures of CFD and DFL were also relatively firm, indicating good physical demand during the refinery peak season [10]. - For physical discounts, the discounts of North Sea oil varieties were differentiated. The discounts of OseBerg and Johan Sverdrup decreased significantly. The discount of Azerbaijani Azeri crude dropped sharply due to organic chlorine pollution. The discount of West African oil decreased slightly, while the physical discounts of Middle - East oil varieties were firm. The discount of Guyanese crude in Latin America declined from a high level. In North America, the triangular spread of WTI in Cushing, Midland, and Houston narrowed again, indicating that the tight inventory situation in Cushing had not been completely alleviated [10]. - In terms of regional spreads, the Brent - Dubai EFS recently dropped to around $1 per barrel, showing an obvious trend of the East being stronger than the West. The WTI - Brent spread was maintained at around $3.3 per barrel [11]. - Regarding refined - oil spreads, the diesel crack spread and monthly spread declined from high levels. In the short term, factors such as the continuous decline in diesel shipments from the Middle East to Europe, low diesel inventories in the West, and refinery operation issues drove the strong performance of European diesel in June. The east - west diesel spread continued to weaken, promoting more arbitrage shipments from the East to Europe and refineries to switch to diesel production for re - balancing. The diesel contradiction mainly came from the supply and trade sides rather than the demand side [11]. Petroleum Inventory: The Differentiation of Crude - oil Inventories between China and Overseas Continues - According to Kpler's high - frequency inventory data, as of the end of July, the global sea - land crude - oil inventory (excluding China and the US SPR inventory) was about 2.85 billion barrels, which was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. China's on - shore crude - oil inventory continued to increase, with a total of about 1.14 billion barrels (excluding underground SPR). China's high inventory was due to both the active replenishment of strategic reserves to hedge geopolitical risks and the passive inventory build - up caused by the decline in refinery processing volume [22]. - In terms of floating - storage crude - oil, as of the end of July, the global floating - storage crude - oil inventory rose to 89 million barrels, and the Iranian floating - storage crude - oil increased to 48 million barrels. Regarding refined - oil inventories, the global refined - oil inventory increased slightly last week, but the inventory level remained at a five - year low in the same period. Meanwhile, the European diesel inventory continued to decline, and the tight diesel spot situation had not been alleviated [22]. Crude - oil Shipments: Both Shipments and Arrivals Increase Simultaneously - In terms of global shipments, the global crude - oil shipments in July rose to the high level of the same period in the past five years. OPEC's shipments reached 20 million barrels per day but dropped below 17 million barrels per day in the last week of July (mainly due to Saudi Arabia's exports falling below 6 million barrels per day). It is expected that with OPEC's production increase and the decrease in direct - burning power - generation demand for crude oil in the Middle East in summer, OPEC's exports still have room to grow. Non - OPEC shipments reached a high of 21.5 million barrels per day this year. Latin American shipments increased to 5.3 million barrels per day, with the increased supply from Guyana and Brazil offsetting the decreased supply from Mexico and Ecuador. West African shipments were stable at 3.4 million barrels per day, and North African shipments (including transit shipments from Egypt) remained stable at 2.5 million barrels per day. In North America, Canada's crude - oil shipments remained at around 0.8 million barrels per day, and the US shipments remained at a low of 3.1 million barrels per day. The shipments from Russia in the former Soviet Union region dropped to 3.2 million barrels per day, while Kazakhstan's shipments remained at a high of 1.6 million barrels per day. Due to organic chlorine pollution, Azerbaijan's shipments dropped to 0.4 million barrels per day. In the North Sea, Norway's recent oil - field maintenance led to a drop in shipments to 1.5 million barrels per day [24]. - Regarding global arrivals, the recent arrivals rose to a high of 44.2 million barrels per day this year and in the same period of history. The arrivals in Northeast Asia remained at a high of 15.8 million barrels per day, South Asian arrivals increased slightly to 5 million barrels per day, Southeast Asian imports remained strong at 3.6 million barrels per day, the US arrivals dropped to 2.7 million barrels per day, and European arrivals increased significantly recently to 8.9 million barrels per day. As refineries reach their peak operating rates in mid - August and then decline, the arrivals will gradually decrease. Meanwhile, China's high crude - oil imports may reverse in the second half of the year, which will also drag down the arrivals [25][26]. Crude - oil Supply: OPEC Increases Production Cautiously, and Non - OPEC Non - US Production Increases Accelerate - OPEC+'s actual production increase still does not match the quota increase, indicating Saudi Arabia's cautious attitude towards production increase. OPEC's overall released supply is still very restricted. According to OPEC's plan to lift production limits, it will continuously increase production by 0.55 million barrels per day before September to completely cancel the 2.2 million barrels per day production limit. The negotiation between Iraq and Kurdistan on the resumption of oil exports has made some progress, but the Kurdish oil exports have not resumed, and the resumption requires the consent of Turkey [35]. - Recently, the supply situation in Latin America has improved significantly. Brazil's supply has grown strongly supported by the commissioning of four FPSO projects. Guyana is expected to install a new FPSO in the third quarter, one quarter earlier than the market expected. Recently, the two crude - oil pipelines in Ecuador have resumed operation, and Ecuador's crude - oil exports will resume. Argentina's crude - oil supply has continuously reached new highs [35]. - In the US, due to cautious capital expenditure and the slowdown of well - drilling and completion operations, it is expected that the US production will stabilize after reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, and the decline will not be significant. The commissioning of projects in the Gulf of Mexico will partially offset the decline in shale - oil production [35]. Refinery Maintenance and Profits: The Peak of Operating Rates is Approaching - The global refinery shutdown volume continued to decline seasonally. As of the week of July 25, the global shutdown capacity dropped to 5.2 million barrels per day. Refinery units in China, the former Soviet Union, Japan, and Latin America restarted. It is expected that the global refinery operating rate will reach its annual seasonal high in mid - August and then decline, entering the autumn maintenance period from September to October. Meanwhile, as the diesel crack spread declined from a high level, the global refinery profits decreased significantly, especially in the regions east of the Suez Canal [42]. Geopolitics: Trump Threatens Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil, and India Will Not Abandon Russian - oil Purchases - Regarding the Russia - Ukraine situation, there has been no obvious progress in the cease - fire agreement. The 18th round of EU sanctions has increased the sanctions on Russian oil, including the implementation of a dynamically adjusted price cap on Russian oil and restrictions on third - country refineries from processing Russian oil and re - exporting it to Europe to plug the refining loophole. Trump plans to restore Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, which will help stabilize Venezuela's crude - oil supply. In terms of tariffs, Trump has successively announced trade agreements with various countries, reducing the tariff risk. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, mainly targeting China, India, and Turkey, aiming to gain more benefits in tariff negotiations. China will ignore Trump's threat of Russian - oil tariffs, and India also said it will continue to purchase Russian crude oil. India currently purchases up to 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil and is the largest buyer of Russian Urals crude oil since the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There is no additional supply in the current market to fill the 2 million barrels per day supply gap of Russian oil [44][47]. Liquidity: Hedge Funds Are Bullish on Diesel, but Positions Are Overcrowded - Recently, in terms of fund positions, there has been a divergence between Brent and WTI. The net long positions of Brent funds have risen to a high level, while the net long positions of WTI funds have decreased significantly. In terms of refined - oil positions, the net long positions of European and US diesel funds are at a high level this year, indicating extremely crowded long positions and a relatively consistent bullish sentiment in the market [50]. Overall Forecast: The Fundamental Situation Will Enter a Turning Point from Strong to Weak in August - As global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. China's high crude - oil inventory indicates a disconnection between imports and terminal consumption, which may not be sustainable. With the new supplies from Latin America, the North Sea, etc., entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year. Unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia leading to a notable supply decrease, the center of oil prices will move down [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, with the restart of Tianjin Bohua's PDH unit in early August and the expected release of new production capacity. The demand has staged support due to the restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. The rebound in oil prices provides short - term cost support, but prices are mainly under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [1][2] Summary by Directory Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene prices are in a low - level weak oscillation, showing a negative basis pattern [14] Propylene Monthly Output - In July, China's propylene plant output reached 5.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,400 tons (2.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 13.0%. The output remains at a high level in the same period [22] Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The profits of propylene production by different processes decreased month - on - month. The production profit of PDH - made propylene was in the red, and the loss of methanol - to - propylene profitability deepened. In July, the overall propylene capacity utilization rate was 71.6%, with a narrow month - on - month fluctuation [24] Propylene Outer - Market Spread and Import - Export - In June, China's propylene imports increased month - on - month, driven by imports from Japan, South Korea, and increased supply from Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea are still the traditional major import sources. In June, China's propylene imports were 253,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.0669 million tons [39] Propylene Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The overall downstream operating rate increased limitedly. End - users mainly purchased at low prices, and demand resilience was still insufficient. The restart of some polypropylene and octanol plants provided staged demand support, but its sustainability is questionable during the traditional off - season. In terms of downstream profits, the profit of the propylene oxide industry rebounded significantly, while the profit of the n - butanol industry decreased month - on - month [53] Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory in factories continued to rise, being higher year - on - year. The inventory of PP powder, the main downstream consumer, declined from a high level [75]

期货研究报告|PX&PTA&PF&PR 月报 2025-08-03 8 月 PX 供应恢复，关注成本端支撑 市场分析 价格和基差方面，7 月 PX 和 PTA 价格月初偏弱运行，随后大幅上涨，月底回落。月 初盘面震荡偏弱，需求端笼罩在淡季减产的氛围中；随后月中在反内卷政策预期下宏 观情绪大幅改善，商品普涨，PX/PTA 价格跟随上涨，PXN 从 260 美元/吨附近反弹至 280 美元/吨，终端也在原料涨价效应下集中补库；月底，在政治局会议和中美经贸谈 判落地后市场情绪回落，PX/PTA 价格回落，在现货供应逐步宽松以及主流供应商出货 下，PTA 现货基差大幅下降，PTA 现货加工费维持低位。PR 和 PF 方面，7 月原油偏强 支撑，国内受供给侧改革、"反内卷"等宏观利好支撑，聚酯原料先弱后强，聚酯瓶片市 场随原料先抑后扬运行，PF 现货加工利润整体转弱，瓶片加工费在减产下有所修复。 汽油和芳烃方面，7 月汽油裂解价差偏弱运行，美国汽油库存近五年季节性高位，汽油 市场对 PX 影响有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过多的期待。3~7 月韩国出 口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX 有明显下降。7 月短流 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China - Europe Base Port: In August, the monthly average weekly capacity was 347,300 TEU, and in September, it was 297,100 TEU. In August, Maersk added two additional vessels, and the OA Alliance added one. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA Alliance, and currently 3 TBNs in August and 2 in September [2][115]. - August Contract: The top of the freight rate has appeared. The estimated SCFIS on August 4th and 11th is between 2300 - 2400 points. The delivery settlement price has been revised down to 2100 - 2200 points. Pay attention to Maersk's Week 34 opening price [3][122]. - October Contract: It is mainly for short - allocation. Normally, October is one of the two months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The 10 - month contract price is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Currently, the 10 - contract is equivalent to a spot price of around $2000/FEU. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract on rallies, but do not over - short [4][123]. - December Contract: The pattern of off - peak and peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Normally, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [6][124]. Summary by Directory 7 - Month Container Freight Rate Review - Futures Market: As of August 1st, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 75,300 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 41,800 lots. In July, the EC2508 contract rose 20.73%, the EC2510 contract rose 6.35%, the EC2512 contract rose 12.83%, the EC2602 contract rose 13.93%, and the EC2604 contract rose 13.27% [11]. - Spot Price Performance: In July, most routes saw price increases. Among the 10 routes counted by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, 4 routes had an increase of over 50%. The SCFIS European route (basic port) rose 9.1% to 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS US - West route (basic port) fell 20.7 to 1284.01 points [22]. - Forward Spot Quotation: The forward quotation has peaked and declined. Different shipping companies have different price trends for different weeks and ship - departure periods [35]. Supply Chain - Overall Contradiction: The overall contradiction is small. The number of container ships passing through the Suez Canal is still at a low level. The container ship diversion pattern continues. The number of container ships passing through the Cape of Good Hope has increased significantly [39]. - Global Supply Chain: The supply - chain efficiency is continuously recovering. In June, the comprehensive punctuality rate of global main routes was 47.58%, approaching the high in 2023. The punctuality rates of Asian - European, Asian - US West, and Asian - US East routes have all reached new highs [49]. - Port Congestion: The overall port congestion pressure is small, but there is local pressure. As of July 31, 2025, the global container ship congestion capacity was 9.96 million TEU, accounting for 31% of the total container ship capacity [56]. Capacity Supply - Global Supply: The container ship delivery pressure remains large. New shipbuilding orders are at a high level. In 2024, shipping companies significantly increased container ship orders. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the ship - dismantling pressure is limited [67][72]. - Far East - Europe Route Capacity Supply: The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships on the Far East - Europe route is still large. From 2025 - 2028, there will still be significant supply - side pressure [87][92]. Overseas Demand - Eurozone Economy: The Eurozone economy stabilized in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the GDP increased by 1.2% year - on - year and 0.4% quarter - on - quarter. The inflation is stable, and the market confidence has improved to some extent, but it is still affected by the shadow of tariffs [103]. - Import Demand: In 2025, the European import demand is acceptable. From January to May, the container trade volume between the Far East and Europe increased by 10.6% year - on - year, while China's exports to the US decreased by 10.71% from January to June [105][107]. European Line Strategy - Freight Rate Trend: The top of the freight rate has appeared. Pay attention to the downward slope of the freight rate in the later stage. The capacity in August and September is relatively high, and there are additional vessels in August for Maersk and the OA Alliance [115][122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the overseas methanol plant operation rate dropped from a high level, but the overall operation level remained relatively high, and the supply pressure was still significant. In August, the pressure of imported methanol arriving at ports further increased. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, leading to continuous inventory accumulation at ports. - In July, it was the concentrated maintenance period for coal - based methanol plants in the inland areas. In August, some plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were still under maintenance, and the operation rate would gradually recover only in late August. The supply in the inland areas was relatively tight. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry. - The balance sheet showed that the total inventory in August was close to the supply - demand balance, with inventory accumulation at ports and inventory reduction in the inland areas [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Basis Structure - The basis of Taicang Port further weakened, corresponding to the inventory accumulation period at ports. Meanwhile, the MA9 - 1 inter - period spread also continued to weaken. - The basis trends were significantly differentiated. The port basis weakened, while the inland basis rebounded, indicating that the port market was weak and the inland market was strong [17][20]. Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis Overseas Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In December 2024, the 1.7 - million - ton/year Marubeni 3 plant in Malaysia was put into production. In April 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year VenIran apadana Petrochemical Co plant in Iran was put into production, and its operation rate was gradually increasing. In the second half of 2025, the 1.65 - million - ton/year Dena Methanol plant in Iran was expected to be put into production [22]. Overseas Methanol Operation Rate and Forecast - In July, the overseas plant operation rate dropped from a high level. The Iranian busher plant had a short - term maintenance until early August, the ZPC plant reduced its load to 50%, the Marubeni 1 and 2 plants reduced their loads to 50%, and the 3 plant had been under maintenance since late July. The Brunei plant was scheduled for maintenance in late August, with concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia. In South America, an 880,000 - ton/year plant of Chilean Methanex was still shut down, and the Trinidad plant had been operating stably since July, indicating that the lowest operation rate in South America had passed. The overall overseas operation rate remained at a high level, and the estimated imported methanol arriving at ports in August would further increase to around 1.3 million tons, indicating continued pressure on port arrivals [26]. Methanol Import Profit and Cross - Country Spread - In July, when the overseas operation rate was relatively high, the overseas premium performance was differentiated. Due to concentrated maintenance in Southeast Asia, the Southeast Asia - China spread quickly rebounded and then quickly declined again. The US Gulf - China methanol spread strengthened, while the Rotterdam - China spread weakened. Since there was not much maintenance in Europe and the US, it reflected the difference in demand [36]. Methanol Port Inventory - The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Jiangsu, the trading distribution center. The inventory in Zhejiang, where MTO plants were located, decreased as MTO plants redirected their shipments to Jiangsu. The inventory in South China ports also accelerated its accumulation [44]. Downstream MTO Plant Operation - The Xingxing MTO plant started a one - month maintenance at the end of July, dragging down the port demand. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - planned load reduction of the Nanjing Chengzhi MTO plant could be implemented [53]. Methanol Regional Spread - Currently, the inland market was strong while the port market was weak, and the port - to - inland return window was largely closed, resulting in a fragmented state between the port and inland markets. In the traditional downstream sector, the unexpectedly high operation rate of MTBE drove the consumption of inland inventory [57]. Inland Methanol Supply - Demand Analysis China's Methanol Newly - Added Capacity - In the non - integrated sector, the pressure of newly - added plant production was not significant. In the first half of the year, only the 1 - million - ton/year Xinjiang Zhongtai plant was put into production in May, and its operation rate was not high. In the second half of the year, the newly - added capacity was limited, mainly green methanol. In 2025, the newly - added capacity was mainly from integrated plants, and all three lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng had been put into production [64][65]. China's Methanol Operation Rate (by Process) - In terms of existing plants, coal - based methanol plants had concentrated maintenance in July, mainly in Shaanxi. In August, there were still maintenance plans in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and the operation rate would gradually recover only at the end of August. The production profit of coal - based methanol remained at a relatively high level. In terms of upstream raw materials, due to the seasonal peak of daily consumption and the increase in coking coal prices, the price of steam coal at the Inner Mongolia mine mouth gradually recovered. The coking coal market was also an indicator affecting the subsequent trend of the coal - chemical industry [68]. Methanol Inland Inventory and Traditional Downstream Operation - Against the background of concentrated maintenance of coal - based methanol plants, the inland factory inventory remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that the inland market was stronger than the port market. - The operation rate of traditional downstream industries declined, corresponding to the off - peak season for formaldehyde. Although it was the seasonal off - peak season for formaldehyde, its operation rate had rebounded from the bottom. The operation rates of MTBE and acetic acid remained resilient, and the demand in the inland areas was also strong. The inventory of inland methanol plants decreased again, showing a pattern where the inland market was stronger than the port market [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, making the short - term interest - rate cut path uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25bp cut exceeding 85%. The overall labor market showed structural weakness, and after the data release, the US Treasury yields declined across the board [12]. - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm, but the increase in the proportion of short - term bonds has a greater impact on liquidity. The market sentiment swings between "economic recession" and "policy game", and the short - term volatility of US Treasury assets has increased. It is expected that the US Treasury market will face intensified fluctuations around September [13][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Yield Review - As of August 1st, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 21bp in two weeks, falling to 4.23%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 19bp, and the 30 - year yield dropped 19bp [5]. 2. US Treasury Market Changes - In actual bond issuance, the duration of US Treasury issuance declined slightly in late July, with 68.44 billion for 2 - year, 69.88 billion for 5 - year, and 43.92 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US had a fiscal surplus of 27.01 billion dollars in June, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to 1.90 trillion dollars [5]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of July 29th, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.681 million lots. The federal funds rate futures market shifted from a net long to a net short position of - 0.13 million lots, reflecting an increased demand for hedging against the expected decline in interest rates [5]. 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: In July 2025, the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. The policy statement recognized a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and there was a divergence of opinions within the Fed, with two governors advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut being rejected [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of July 30th, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by 107.361 billion dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool contracted by 49 billion dollars in two weeks, leading to uncertainty in the short - term liquidity buffer space [6]. - **Economic Situation**: As of July 26th, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.56 (2.34 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term improvement in the economy after stability [6]. 5. US Treasury Yield Trends - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, and the short - term rate - cut path is uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a September rate cut increased, and the US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield dropping 25bp in a single day [12]. 6. US Treasury Issuance Policy - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm but increases the proportion of short - term bonds. The new refinancing plan is 125 billion dollars, with an increase in short - term Treasury issuance and a decrease in long - and medium - term bonds. Relying more on short - term debt financing may increase fiscal financing volatility and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [13].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].