液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-10 市场氛围温和，刚需采购 市场分析 1、\t6月9日地区价格：山东市场，4520—4650；东北市场，4060—4150；华北市场，4500—4600；华东市场，4350—4600； 沿江市场，4600—4650；西北市场，4250—4450；华南市场，4500—4650。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷600美元/吨，稳定，丁烷540美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4746元/吨，稳定，丁烷4272元/吨，涨1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，稳定，丁烷545美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4786元/吨，涨1元/吨，丁烷4311元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 现货方面，昨日华北、华南地区价格小幅上涨，其余区域主流稳定，氛围温和，成交平平。供应方面，对美采购 有所回升，海外供应充裕；随国内炼厂检修结束，国内供应逐步回升，整体供应充足。需求方面，PDH开工率回 升至63%左右，新装置投产扩大原料需求的基本盘，但利润限制了开工率持续上升，整体需求改善 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-10 社会库存进入累库模式 重要数据 库存方面：截至2025-06-09，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.17万吨，较上周同期增加0.43万吨。截止2025-06-09，LME 锌库存为135600吨，较上一交易日减少1375吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游接货意愿较差，贸易商频频下调现货升水，成交依旧冷清。从上周开始锌锭开始累库，对锌 价的支撑瓦解。矿端港口库存及冶炼厂原料库存依旧较为充足，TC持续上涨，冶炼利润依旧丰厚。供给端压力依 旧，6月份供给增长预期重新回到10%左右，下半年有望维持长期供给高增速。消费方面，从下游开工率表现来看， 消费整体表现为强势，中美关税对消费的实际影响尚未显现，但难以对冲供给的高增长，且进入季节性消费淡季， 消费存在环比走弱的迹象。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-35.03 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至22590元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌45元/吨至300元/吨，SMM广东锌现 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，并无重要经济数据公布，而在事件方面，加州起诉特朗普政府调兵进入洛杉矶，后者威胁逮捕加州州长、 马斯克公开支持特朗普派兵、特朗普表示不希望美国发生内战。而美司法部要求法院延长特朗普关税无效判决的 暂缓执行期。美国国会预算办公室称，政府可能会在8月中旬至9月底之间耗尽用于履行其偿付义务的资金。债务 上限于今年年初重新生效，此后财政部一直在动用特殊会计手段，以免突破上限，同时仍能按时履行联邦偿付义 务，此前美债CDS价格再度大幅上涨。共和党人在特朗普的"大漂亮法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill）中附加了 一项措施，该措施将赋予财政部数万亿美元的额外借款权。该法案目前正在参议院进行审议。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-09，沪金主力合约开于 781.12元/克，收于 774.72元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -1.09%。当日成交量为 255991手，持仓量为 173184手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 774.00 元/克，收于776.66 元/克，较昨日午后收盘上 涨0.18%。 2025-06-09，沪银主力合约开于 8846元/千克，收于 8909元/千克，较前一交 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil price increases support the prices of three major oils, causing them to fluctuate and strengthen [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +72 yuan or +0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7766.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.36% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9182.00 yuan/ton, a change of +42.00 yuan or +0.46% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan or +0.71%, with a spot basis of P09 + 368.00, a change of -12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 7970.00 yuan/ton, a change of +50.00 yuan/ton or +0.63%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 204.00, a change of +22.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan or +0.43%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 198.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary US Soybean Export - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 547040 tons, compared to the previous week's revised 301459 tons [2] - This crop year to date, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 45188245 tons, compared to 40543390 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - As of the week ending June 5, 2025, the US shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China (Mainland), compared to 64998 tons the previous week [2] Russia Wheat - Russian agricultural consulting firm Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production by 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million tons, and noted severe weather in Rostov [2] International Oilseed Prices - Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price was 595 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 459 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Brazilian soybeans (July shipment) C&F price was 451 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import soybean premium for the Gulf of Mexico (July shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for the US West Coast (July shipment) was 183 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (July shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, up 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]

化工日报 | 2025-06-10 再传减产，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4256元/吨（较前一交易日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.12%），EG华东市场现货价4380 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.45%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）115元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 长丝企业将继续第三轮减产方案，瓶片可能也将进一步减产，产业链价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-37美元/吨（环比-3美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为80元/吨（环比-30 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为63.4万吨（环比+1.3万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为59.8万吨（环比+2.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.1万吨，港口库存平稳略增； 本周华东主港计划到港总数12.8万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑： 供应端，卫星、恒力等几套大装置检修时间较长，6月国内供应端恢复幅度有限，供需结 构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；需求端，聚酯减产下需求有所回 ...

据农业农村部监测，6月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.11，比上周五下降0.29个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为113.19，比上周五下降0.32个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.46元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉64.29 元/公斤，比上周五上升0.7%；羊肉59.51元/公斤，比上周五下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.42元/公斤，比上周五下降1.7%；白 条鸡16.92元/公斤，比上周五下降0.5%。 农产品日报 | 2025-06-10 出栏节奏放缓，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13475元/吨，较前交易日变动+15.00元/吨，幅度+0.11%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.90元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+425，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.12元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+645，较前交易日变动-205；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.78元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+305，较前交易日变动-115。 市 ...

Report Investment Rating - The strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [4][8] Core Viewpoints - For apples, the previous expectation of a production cut has weakened with the new - season fruit bagging work progressing, leading to a correction in the futures price. The demand for apples is being impacted by the increasing demand for melons and other summer fruits as the temperature rises. Although the current inventory is at a five - year low with less pressure to clear stocks, there is a risk of price decline due to potential quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] - For red dates, the main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price of red dates has been falling under multiple conditions such as the off - season, high inventory, and normal growth in the growing period, and has broken through the warehouse receipt cost of the 2024 production season. Due to over - production in 2024, there are potential risks in the new - season growth, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Market News and Important Data Apples - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7486 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 2.85% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 714, a change of + 220 from the previous day. The price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 2114, a change of + 220 from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2509 contract yesterday was 8910 yuan/ton, a change of + 90 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 1.02% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 8.30 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ09 - 610, a change of - 90 from the previous day [5] Market Analysis Apples - The apple futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The new - season fruit bagging work is in progress, and the previous production cut expectation has weakened, leading to a correction in the futures price. As the temperature rises, the demand for apples is being impacted by other fruits. Currently, the trading in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory is at a low level, but there is a risk of price decline due to quality issues. Attention should be paid to the yield expectation after bagging [3] Red Dates - The red date futures price rose yesterday. The main producing areas' jujube trees are growing normally, and the supply in the sales areas is sufficient with a high total inventory. The price has been falling in the off - season, and there are potential risks in the new - season growth due to over - production in 2024. Attention should be paid to the market opportunities brought by high - temperature and drought weather [7] Strategy Apples - Adopt a neutral strategy. Continuously monitor the game between low inventory and weak demand, as well as the yield data after bagging [4] Red Dates - Adopt a neutral strategy. The current absolute price is low, and it is in the critical growth period of new - season red dates. Pay close attention to the impact of over - production in the 2024 season and weather changes on the new - season growth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate without growth interference [8]

农产品日报 | 2025-06-10 现货整体上涨，豆粕偏强震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3019元/吨，较前日变动+9元/吨，幅度+0.30%；菜粕2509合约2614元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.23%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2920元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-99， 较前日变动+1；江苏地区豆粕现货2840元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-179，较前日变动+1；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2840元/吨，较前日变动跌+40元/吨，现货基差M09-179，较前日变动+31。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2520元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09-94，较前日变动-16。 近期市场资讯，Safras数据显示，截至6月6日，巴西农户已销售2024/25年度大豆64%，低于去年同期的71.8%和五 年均值76.9%。巴西农户将在三个月后开始播种新豆，产量预计为1.83亿吨，预售比例10.8%，仍低于去年同期以 及五年均值。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所报告，截至6月4日，阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收获进度为88.7%，比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch, but there are signs that the rates to the US West have peaked. The freight rates on the European route are expected to rise in July and August, and the peak time of the European route freight rates in 2025 is unclear. The 08 contract is in a fierce game between expectation and reality, and it is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations recently. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [3][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **European Route**: In the second half of June, the prices of most shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. For example, HPL's shipping schedule quotes from June to July increased gradually; some shipping companies such as MSC announced price increase letters for the second half of June. The average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU. The expected delivery settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract. There is still an expectation of price increase in July and August, and CMA's July shipping schedule quote on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by about 1000 US dollars/FEU compared with the second half of June [1][2][5][6]. - **US Route**: The freight rates on the US route increased significantly in June due to the supply-demand mismatch. The demand on the China - US route increased rapidly with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. However, there are signs that the freight rates to the US West have peaked, such as the decrease in the prices of Maersk on the Shanghai - Los Angeles and Shanghai - New York routes in the second week of the second half of June [3]. 2. Shipping Capacity - **European Route**: The shipping capacity pressure on the European route decreased in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June on the Shanghai - European route was about 280,600 TEU, and there were 6 blank sailings in total. The average weekly shipping capacity in July is 279,600 TEU, and there are 5 blank sailings in total [4]. - **US Route**: The shipping capacity on the Shanghai - US East and West routes recovered quickly in June. The average weekly shipping capacity in the remaining three weeks of June was 361,000 TEU, the average monthly weekly shipping capacity in May was 243,400 TEU, and the average weekly shipping capacity in July is 326,400 TEU [3]. 3. Geopolitical Situation The date of the next round of Iran - US talks has not been determined. Iran will respond to the US proposal in the next few days, and the Omani Foreign Minister will then determine the time and place of the next round of negotiations [2]. 4. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 10, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 87,143 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 67,155 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract closed at 1376.50, EC2604 contract at 1225.50, EC2506 contract at 1948.60, EC2508 contract at 2065.60, EC2510 contract at 1343.70, and EC2512 contract at 1520.70 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West) price was 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest in the year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). On June 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1622.81 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 2185.08 points [3][7]. 5. Container Ship Delivery In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 7, 2025, 120 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 940,000 TEU. Among them, 36 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 544,000 TEU; 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 94,864 TEU [8].