Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the caustic soda market is expected to show a pattern of synchronous growth in supply and demand, but there will be a phased mismatch in rhythm and structure. The PVC market will face the triple characteristics of "high supply, pressured demand, and improved exports". The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile with a wide range, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile with a narrow range and the price center may move up [2][9]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side new capacity will continue to be released, and the demand - side main downstream alumina industry has a complex situation of "new investment and production cut expectations coexisting". For PVC, although the new capacity release slows down, the existing capacity output is still at a high level, and the industry is generally under pressure in a low - profit environment [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Annual Trend Review - In 2025, the PVC market fluctuated downward in the first half of the year and first rose then fell in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as social inventory, policy expectations, and overseas macro - uncertainties. The caustic soda market showed the characteristics of "falling from a high level and fluctuating in a range", and its price was driven by factors such as alumina demand, non - aluminum industry procurement rhythm, and chlor - alkali comprehensive cost [17][18]. Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic PVC industry was 220 tons, and all were fulfilled by September, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. In 2026, there is no clear new capacity plan. The new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry in 2025 was significantly lower than expected, with only 90 tons added, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is about 256 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 5% [23][27]. Chlor - alkali Supply and Production Profit - **PVC**: As of October 2025, the cumulative PVC output was 2013 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. The production profit was in a deep - loss range for most of the time, and the industry supply pressure continued to exist [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: As of October 2025, the cumulative caustic soda output was 3514 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. The production profit was generally profitable, but it declined in November [48]. PVC and Caustic Soda Basis Trend and Future Judgment - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market maintained a negative basis structure. In the future, the negative basis structure will still be the norm, but the level may narrow slightly. - **Caustic Soda**: In 2025, the caustic soda basis fluctuated sharply. In 2026, the negative basis may appear more frequently, and the overall basis center level may face downward pressure [60][61]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis - **PVC**: From January to October 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 323 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.85%. The export to India is expected to be further boosted, and the export to other regions is also increasing. PVC products export showed a pattern of mixed performance in 2025 [67][85]. - **Caustic Soda**: From January to October 2025, the domestic caustic soda cumulative export volume was 349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Indonesia and Australia are the main export destinations [90]. Chlor - alkali Demand Status and Outlook - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market showed a pattern of "increased supply, high - growth exports, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the demand will still be dragged down by the real - estate market and maintain a weak and stable state [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and papermaking. In 2026, the new alumina capacity may bring new demand for caustic soda, but there are uncertainties [121][122]. Chlor - alkali Inventory Status and Outlook - In 2025, the PVC social inventory showed a pattern of year - on - year accumulation. In 2026, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain loose, and the marginal change in export demand will be the key variable affecting the social inventory destocking rhythm [142][145].

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 随着中美贸易政策博弈尘埃落定，市场逻辑已从前期的政策驱动逐步回归基本面主导。供应端来看，本年度巴西大豆丰产为我国提供 了充足的进口来源，国内油厂大豆及豆粕库存均攀升至历史高位，市场供应呈现宽松格局。尽管未来美国大豆进口预期有所改善，但 豆粕价格并未出现大幅回落，核心原因在于...... 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 饲料年报 2025-11-30 定价逻辑切换，静待供需改善 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the temporary supply - demand mismatch, the LPG market shows a tight fundamental situation and is oscillating strongly. However, in the medium - term, the supply elasticity of LPG is greater than the demand elasticity. Without large - scale supply disruptions, the supply will be abundant. The supply from the US and the Middle East is expected to grow, while the demand growth in Asia - Pacific countries is restricted by the weak profit of downstream devices. Overall, the global LPG market may continue the oversupply pattern in 2026, but geopolitical conflicts and weather may cause temporary supply - demand mismatches [6][127]. - Based on the decline of the oil price center and the expected oversupply of global LPG, there will be resistance to the upward movement of LPG prices in 2026. After the short - term strong oscillation caused by supply - demand mismatch, opportunities for shorting on rallies can be considered, and the registration of new warehouse receipts after the price rebound on the futures market should be monitored. Recently, the strong cracking spread of naphtha has made LPG more cost - effective, driving the substitution demand of some cracking devices. But if the Russia - Ukraine situation eases and sanctions are relaxed, the supply of Russian naphtha may increase, which could suppress the naphtha cracking spread and have an indirect negative impact on LPG valuation [7][128]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Supply - demand Imbalance in the Oil Market and Resistance to Oil Prices - In 2025, international oil prices were in a wide - range oscillating and declining trend. Taking Brent as a reference, the price center has moved down compared to last year. As of November 25, 2025, the average price of the Brent futures main contract was $68.87 per barrel, a 13.76% decrease from the average price in 2024 [14]. - In 2026, the oil market is expected to face downward pressure. The growth elasticity of oil demand has significantly decreased and cannot offset the release of surplus supply capacity. China's oil demand growth has slowed down, and the global oil consumption has entered a stage of low - growth. Although the supply growth rate will slow down next year, it is still expected to exceed demand, leading to an increase in global oil inventories [15]. 3.2 Weak Oscillation in the 2025 LPG Market and Tariff Disturbances - In 2025, the LPG market was in a weak oscillating pattern. The price center moved down due to the decline in oil prices. The Sino - US tariff conflict caused additional disturbances, mainly resulting in regional price differences rather than global trends [29]. - In Q1 2025, the LPG market was oscillating. Although there were some disturbances such as Middle - East device maintenance and US shipping delays, the impact was limited. The downstream demand in the Asia - Pacific region was weak, and there was no obvious supply shortage [29]. - In Q2 2025, the Sino - US tariff conflict led to a significant change in the trade pattern. China reduced its procurement from the US and turned to the Middle East. The supply - demand imbalance between the US and non - US sources supported the CP price and caused the FEI price to drop. After the tariff was reduced, the domestic market still had a wait - and - see attitude. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict in June also had a short - term impact on the LPG market [30]. - In Q3 2025, the LPG market was relatively stable, and the supply - demand imbalance continued [31]. - In Q4 2025, the Sino - US tariff issue resurfaced, but the impact on the market was smaller than in April. The supply in the Middle East decreased due to refinery maintenance, and the demand in India and Southeast Asia increased during the peak season, which supported the LPG price. However, the weak profit of domestic downstream chemical industries limited the upward movement of the domestic market [32]. 3.3 Continued Oversupply of Global LPG in 2026 and the Reshaping of Trade Flows 3.3.1 Growth in Middle - East LPG Supply - OPEC has gradually withdrawn from the production - cut agreement, and the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to grow. Although the actual production increase may be different from the quota increase, the overall trend is upward. The UAE is promoting natural - gas field development projects, which will contribute to the growth of NGL supply. In 2026, the LPG supply in the Middle East is expected to increase year - on - year [47]. - In the short - term, the supply in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait has tightened due to refinery maintenance, but it is expected to return to the growth track after the maintenance is completed. Saudi Arabia will face more competition from the US, which may suppress the CP pricing in the medium - term. The US sanctions on Iran have increased, but the LPG supply in Iran has not been significantly affected [48][49]. 3.3.2 Growth in US LPG Supply - The production of NGL and LPG in the US has continued to grow in recent years. In 2025, the LPG export volume increased, and the export capacity has been improved through terminal expansion projects. Although there was a potential device failure in December 2025, it is not expected to affect the long - term supply trend [66]. - In 2026, the growth trend of US shale - gas production is expected to continue, and the production of NGL and LPG is also expected to increase. The expansion of export terminals will further enhance the export capacity [67]. 3.3.3 Reshaping of LPG Trade Flows - After the Sino - US tariff conflict in April 2025, China reduced its imports from the US and increased imports from the Middle East. Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and India increased their imports from the US. India signed a long - term LPG procurement agreement with the US, which will affect the CP and FEI pricing [85][86]. 3.3.4 Increase in Russian LPG Supply to China - In recent years, China's imports of LPG from Russia have been increasing. From January to November 2025, the import volume exceeded 700,000 tons, a 63.8% increase compared to the previous year. Although the absolute volume is limited by transportation bottlenecks, it has become an important marginal increment, especially for the Northeast region [102]. 3.3.5 Constraints on the Growth of China's LPG Demand - China's LPG demand has been growing, mainly driven by the commissioning of downstream chemical devices (mainly PDH). In 2026, about 3.75 million tons/year of propane dehydrogenation capacity is planned to be put into operation, which may contribute about 2.8 million tons of propane demand. However, the weak profit of the PDH industry has restricted the start - up of existing devices and the commissioning of new ones, so the actual demand growth may be lower than expected [105]. - Other devices such as ethylene - cracking also have potential for growth, but the low profit restricts the endogenous demand growth. The demand for LPG in the combustion sector lacks growth potential, and the demand growth in 2026 will still be mainly driven by the chemical downstream, with profit being the main limiting factor [107].

华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 2025 年国债期货整体呈现前高后稳、震荡分化格局：年初在降准降息预期与避险情绪下走强，二季度受中美关税与宽松落地回 调，三 季度财政供给与权益走强导致长端承压、短端稳健，四季度虽因央行重启国债买卖短暂反弹，但 11 月后在利多弱化下再度震荡 。展望 2026 年，财政赤字率维持高位、特别国债与专项债供给延续，配置需求结构性收缩使长端利率下行受限；货币政策维持稳中偏 松并可 能降准一次，通胀中枢温和回升但再通胀风险不大，叠加外部利率约束弱化，收益率或呈底部抬升、顶部受限的区间震荡上行。 国债期货：再定价框架下的新均衡 期货市场研究 本期分析研究员 徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 郭欣悦 从业资格号：F03149577 期货研究报告 | 国债年报 2025-11-30 国债期货：再定价框架下的新均衡 策略摘要 2025 年国债期货整体呈"前高后稳、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral neutral, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main drivers. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [1][8] - The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the current high inventory is a major issue [7][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Overseas supply: In 2026, the nominal new foreign production capacity is 1.65 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.62 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of about 0.8%. The total import increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.37 million tons, with an import growth rate of about 9.6% [5] - Domestic non - integrated production: In 2026, the nominal new non - integrated production capacity is 1.2 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.98 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Demand increment: The new external - purchase methanol MTO devices will increase the methanol demand by 2.2 million tons/year after weighted by commissioning time, with a demand growth rate of 13.8%. In 2026, the new production capacity of traditional downstream industries will increase the nominal methanol demand by 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual demand increment is 2.5 million tons/year, driving the methanol demand growth by 7.9% [6] 3.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main factors. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [8] 3.3 Methanol Annual Balance Sheet Estimation - 2026 MTO and traditional downstream commissioning boost demand, and the high - level inventory is expected to be cleared. The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate [15][21] 3.4 Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis - New external devices: In 2026, the pressure of new overseas methanol production capacity is not significant. The nominal new production capacity is 1.65 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate weighted by commissioning time is about 0.8% [22][23] - Overseas existing devices: In 2025, the Iranian methanol supply showed a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The winter maintenance at the end of 2025 was late, and the actual maintenance duration needs attention. Non - Iranian supply also had different performance in different regions [25][26][31] - Internal - external price ratio: In the context of high port inventory, the import was in an inverted state, and the overseas premium performance was average [43] - Port inventory: In 2025, the port inventory reached a historical high. The winter maintenance of Iran was later than expected, and the inventory pressure in December 2025 continued. The inventory in different regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China all reached historical highs [49] - MTO new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning plan of external - purchase MTO is the highest since 2020, mainly including Shandong Lianhong Phase II and Guangxi Huayi. The integrated MTO mainly focuses on the commissioning plan of CCM Yulin Phase II in Q3 of 2026 [64] - MTO existing devices: In 2025, the operation of external - purchase MTO was acceptable. The maintenance was not concentrated, and the loss gradually recovered after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [70][72] - Regional price difference: Pay attention to the sustainability of the window for port methanol to flow back to the inland [79] 3.5 Inland Supply - Demand Analysis - Inland methanol new situation: In 2026, the domestic commissioning pressure is not significant. The planned commissioning is 5.13 million tons/year, but non - integrated methanol devices are only 1.1 million tons/year [83] - Inland existing device load: Coal - based maintenance is mainly seasonal, and the winter maintenance of gas - based devices is still slow [90] - Non - integrated coal - based: The profit of coal - based methanol was good in the first three quarters of 2025, and the operation was acceptable [91] - Natural gas - based: The winter maintenance of southwest gas - based devices was late in 2025 [97] - Coke oven gas - based: Pay attention to the maintenance of coking enterprises. The operation of coke oven gas - based methanol has a certain long - term correlation with the coking operation rate [99][103] - Inland inventory: In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises decreased compared to 2024, and the inventory of east - China enterprises increased after October [105] - Traditional downstream performance: In 2025, acetic acid entered a loss and production - reduction stage after concentrated commissioning, while MTBE performed well driven by exports [109] - Traditional downstream new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning scale of traditional downstream industries is still considerable. The nominal new methanol demand is 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual new demand is 2.5 million tons/year [122][125]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the unilateral market and suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ for spreads [1]. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the new production of pure benzene will exceed the incremental demand from downstream production, leading to a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pure benzene may maintain a weak and low - volatility oscillation. For styrene, the new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. But the current port inventory of styrene is still high. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [1][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - In 2026, the nominal new production plan of pure benzene is 2.81 million tons/year, with the actual capacity growth weighted by production time at 1.37 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate at 4.8%. The nominal growth in pure benzene demand due to new downstream capacity in China in 2026 is only 2.59 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is only 0.64 million tons/year, with a demand growth rate of only 2.2%, significantly slower than in 2025. The annual balance sheet of pure benzene is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [7]. - In 2026, the nominal capacity growth of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth weighted by production time is 0.013 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 0.5%, significantly slower than in 2025. The nominal growth in styrene demand due to the production of three major hard plastics in China in 2026 is 1.88 million tons/year, and the actual demand weighted by production time is 0.87 million tons/year, driving a 5.3% demand growth rate. In 2026, styrene may shift from a stockpiling to a destocking cycle, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the downstream inventory operation is lower than expected [8]. Market Analysis - The new production of pure benzene in 2026 exceeds the incremental demand from downstream production, and it is expected to enter a stockpiling cycle. However, the processing fee of pure benzene is already at a low level and will oscillate at a low level. Styrene's new production will slow down in 2026, and there are still production plans for downstream hard plastics. One can track the rhythm of inventory reduction at the high - level to engage in the cross - variety trading opportunity of going long on EB and short on BZ [9]. Strategy - On an annual basis, the unilateral price will oscillate in a range. In the first half of the year, the production pressure of pure benzene still exists, and the price will oscillate weakly. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to whether the summer gasoline blending and crude oil prices can support the unilateral price. For spreads, pay attention to widening the EB - BZ spread at low levels, especially in the first half of the year. In terms of inter - period trading, BZ still favors reverse arbitrage, while EB should track the annual inventory reduction rhythm for positive arbitrage opportunities [10]. Annual Balance Sheet Estimation Pure Benzene & EB - **Pure Benzene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene still exists, but the downstream production is limited. The total supply of pure benzene in China will increase by 2.7%, and the total demand will increase by 1.5%. The inventory change will be a 280,000 - ton increase, with an inventory change rate of 0.9% [17]. - **Styrene Annual Self - estimated Balance Sheet Outlook**: In 2026, the new production of styrene will slow down, and it is waiting for further inventory digestion. The total supply of styrene in China will decrease by 0.6%, and the total demand will increase by 2.1%. The inventory change will be a 130,000 - ton decrease [21]. 2026 China Pure Benzene & Styrene Production Situation - The nominal capacity growth rate of pure benzene in China in 2026 is 9.8% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 4.8%), and the nominal capacity growth rate of styrene is 3.9% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by production time is about 0.5%), significantly slower than in 2025 [26]. - The main large - scale pure benzene production in 2026 will be Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei in the third quarter, with greater production pressure in Q1 and Q4. The production of styrene will slow down significantly in 2026, mainly focusing on Huajin Aramco in the fourth quarter. Before the start of the peak summer gasoline - blending season, the EB - BZ spread is expected to widen in the first half of the year [28][29]. Styrene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, styrene had a profit recovery and inventory reduction in the first half of the year and then entered a loss - making and production - reduction pattern in the second half. The main maintenance periods were in April - May and October - November, especially for non - integrated plants using purchased pure benzene in October - November [31]. - In 2025, the overseas styrene maintenance increased, but the export did not increase further. The overseas demand for styrene was weak, resulting in the situation where increased overseas maintenance did not significantly support China's styrene export [45]. - In 2025, the styrene port inventory accumulated to a historical high and is waiting for digestion. The main reasons for the inventory increase were the weakening of downstream demand and the impact of new production [67]. EB Downstream Situation - In the second half of 2025, the production schedule growth rate of white goods significantly declined. The export of white goods decreased due to the tariff war, and the domestic sales also decreased due to the exhaustion of government subsidies [70]. - In 2026, the planned production of EPS is 0.82 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.1%; the planned production of PS is 0.87 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 10.1%; the planned production of ABS is 0.4 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.3%. The production growth rate of ABS will slow down in 2026 [91]. Pure Benzene Fundamental Analysis - In 2025, the pure benzene port inventory had great pressure. The processing fee of pure benzene decreased throughout the year, and the port inventory reached a relatively high historical level in July, mainly due to weak overseas demand and poor performance of domestic downstream industries [102]. - In 2025, the summer gasoline blending in the US was weak, and more pure benzene from South Korea was diverted to China, resulting in a significant increase in China's pure benzene imports. The gasoline demand in the US in 2025 was weak, especially in the peak season from June to August, which affected the Asian aromatic hydrocarbon market [107]. Pure Benzene Downstream Situation - In 2025, the downstream operation of pure benzene was weak. The downstream operation of pure benzene was significantly differentiated, with the demand for pure benzene mainly supported by the high operation of styrene. The non - styrene downstream industries of pure benzene had little demand growth or even negative growth [121]. - In 2026, the planned production of styrene is 0.93 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 3.9%; the planned production of phenol is 1.08 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.1%; the planned production of aniline is 0.3 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.2%; the planned production of adipic acid is 0.6 million tons/year, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.5%. In the first half of 2026, the new demand for pure benzene from downstream production will be less than the new pure benzene production capacity, and the pure benzene processing fee is expected to be weak. In the third and fourth quarters, the downstream production of pure benzene will gradually exceed its own production [128][131].

2026 年期货市场展望 虽然高硫油市场存在边际转弱的预期，但中期而言燃料油整体供需格局并未逆转：高硫燃料油需求端保持坚挺，来自国内地方炼厂的采购 成为常态。在重油结构性偏紧、炼厂二次装置升级的背景下，供应将持续受到制约；与此同时，低硫燃料油市场仍存在需求增量有限、剩 余产能较为充裕的矛盾，市场驱动相对有限...... 供需结构性矛盾仍存，高低硫市场或延续分化 Energy 能源板块研究 Research 华泰期货研究 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 2025 年 11 月 30 日 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 期货研究报告 | 燃料油年报 2025-11-30 供需结构性矛盾仍存，高低硫市场或延续分化 策略摘要 高硫燃料油结构性支撑因素仍存，裂解价差回调到位后可以关注逢低多机会。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 基于对明年油价中枢下移的预期，FU、LU 单边价格将持续受到牵制。 当前高低硫燃料油自身市场矛盾相对有限，整体供应较为充裕。其中，低硫 燃料油由于阿祖尔与 Dangote 炼厂装置变动的缘故 ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 展望明年全年，结合我们对原油成本端支撑偏弱以及沥青需求下滑的预期，我们认为市场中期依然存在一定下行压力，明年现货与期货价 格的运行区间可能会同比今年下移，未来可以持续关注逢高空 BU 主力合约的机会，但需要注意地缘局势变化对原料供应的潜在扰动风 险...... 成本中枢存下行预期，需求前景仍难言乐观 Energy 能源板块研究 Research 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 石油沥青年报 2025-11-30 成本中枢存下行预期，需求前景仍难言乐观 策略摘要 结合我们对原油成本端支撑偏弱以及沥青需求下滑的预期，我们认为市场中 期依然存在一定下行压力。短期等待底部信号明确，中期可以持续关注逢高空 BU 的机会。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 2025 年国内沥青基本面整体延续了供需两弱的格局，市场氛围较为平淡。 在原油价格中枢下移的背景下，成本端支撑与自身基本面均缺乏有效支撑，现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyolefin industry is neutral on a single - side basis [2][12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the growth rate of polyolefin capacity expansion will slow down, especially in the first half of the year when there will be a new - production vacuum period. The first half of the year will focus on digesting the existing high inventory of polyolefins. However, the demand support before the Spring Festival is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread strategy for the 01 - 05 month inter - period spread. In March, as the "Golden March" peak season, polyolefin demand may seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to start the destocking process. The annual strategy recommends the positive spread strategy for L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 inter - period spreads. In 2026, the new PE production will mainly be non - standard HDPE, and the proportion of standard linear production is relatively low. It is recommended to short non - standard products and long standard linear products to narrow the non - standard price spread [2][12] Summary According to the Directory Market News and Important Data - **New production**: In 2026, the total new PE capacity will be 4.74 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 11.9%, which is slower than in 2025. Most of the new production will be concentrated in the second half of the year, and only BASF's 500,000 - ton FDPE device will be put into production in the first half. For PP, the new capacity in 2026 will be 4.4 million tons per year, with a capacity growth rate of 8.8%, significantly slower than in 2025, and the new production will mainly be concentrated in Q3 - Q4 [7] - **Inventory**: After the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the polyolefin inventory has not been effectively destocked and remains at a high level. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the existing high inventory. But before the Spring Festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to remain high until March [7] Market Analysis - **Production in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the total domestic polyethylene production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11%, with the cumulative year - on - year increase in drawn wire production being 8% [8] - **Demand in 2025**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product output was 0.5%, with the main growth coming from industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 1.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of primary - shaped plastic import volume was - 7.6%. The downstream demand for PE and PP is generally weak [9] Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - **PE market**: The plastic main contract shows the trend of the main contract, basis, and inter - period spread from 2023 to 2025 [19] - **PP market**: The domestic polypropylene market in 2025 showed a trend of continuous decline followed by low - level oscillation. It can be divided into three stages: the decline stage from January to May, the short - term support stage from June to August, and the low - level oscillation stage from September to the end of the year [22][23] Polyolefin Capacity Expansion - **2026 China's polyolefin production rhythm**: The production rhythm of polyolefins in China will slow down in 2026, especially in the first half of the year. The new PE capacity in 2026 is 4.74 million tons per year, and the new PP capacity is 4.4 million tons per year [27][33] - **2025 overseas polyolefin production**: In 2025, the total overseas new polyethylene capacity was 2.382 million tons, and there was an expected 1.85 - million - ton PP capacity expansion, with 600,000 tons in India already realized [35][38] Polyolefin Maintenance - **PE maintenance by process**: In 2025, the overall PE device maintenance volume remained high. Oil - based and alkane - based maintenance volumes were relatively large, while coal - based maintenance volume was similar to the same period [41] - **PP maintenance by process**: In 2025, the PP device maintenance volume continued to be high. Oil - based and PDH - based maintenance volumes were higher than the same period, while coal - based maintenance volume changed little [44] - **Polyolefin operating rate forecast**: The PE operating rate is expected to recover, and the PP operating rate is also expected to increase, but attention should be paid to the raw material supply and profit of PDH devices [53] Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export - **Domestic polyolefin production**: In 2025, the monthly PE output exceeded 2.6 million tons, and from January to October, the total production was 26.195 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The total domestic polypropylene production from January to October was 31.86 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11% [63] - **Polyolefin production profit and operating rate**: In 2025, the polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by raw material prices, and the operating rate was generally low. The operating rate of alkane - based PE and PP devices was affected by Sino - US trade conflicts [68] - **Polyolefin non - standard price spread performance**: In 2025, the LLDPE operating rate increased significantly, and the non - standard price spread of PE is expected to narrow in 2026. The PP non - standard price spread showed a trend of narrowing and then rising [77] - **Polyolefin import - export situation**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative polyethylene imports decreased by 3% year - on - year, and cumulative polypropylene imports decreased by 8% year - on - year. The PE external dependence is decreasing, and PP is gradually changing to an export - oriented product [95] - **Polyolefin domestic - foreign price spread**: In 2025, the LLDPE import window was mostly closed, and the export window was also closed. The PP import and export windows were mainly closed, but the Southeast Asian PP demand showed a slight recovery [103] Polyolefin Demand and Inventory - **Polyolefin downstream demand**: From January to October 2025, the domestic plastic product demand increased slightly, but the external demand was weak. The downstream demand for PE and PP was generally insufficient, waiting for policy - driven stimulation [125] - **Polyolefin inventory**: In 2025, the polyolefin inventory remained high. In 2026, especially in the first half of the year, the focus will be on digesting the high inventory, and the inventory is expected to start destocking in March [155][157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry in 2026 is "Neutral" for single - side trading [2][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the fundamental pressure on propylene's market is difficult to change, with prices expected to oscillate weakly, refinery profits shrinking, and PDH profits gradually contracting. Although the demand increment from downstream propylene projects in 2026 is greater than the propylene production capacity increase, most downstream projects are scheduled for the fourth quarter. Therefore, the supply - demand situation will remain loose in the first half of the year, and attention should be paid to the PL03 - 05 inter - period reverse arbitrage opportunity. With the peak of downstream production capacity coming in the second half of the year, propylene inventory may gradually be reduced [2][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **New Capacity**: 2026 is still a propylene production capacity expansion period in China, but the growth rate is expected to slow down compared to 2025. The expected new propylene production capacity in 2026 is 7.36 million tons, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.3% (the actual capacity growth rate weighted by the commissioning time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than that in 2025 [6][25] - **Supply Pattern**: In 2025, China's propylene industry was in a rapid capacity expansion period, with new production capacity reaching 9.485 million tons, intensifying the market supply pressure. The supply in the Shandong market remained loose [6][35] - **Import - Export Pattern**: In 2025, China's propylene imports generally decreased, and the import dependence gradually declined. The cumulative import volume from January to October was 1.8349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.96%, and the cumulative export volume was 26,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.67%. The import dependence is expected to further decline [7][53] - **Demand Increment**: The propylene demand converted from downstream new projects in 2026 is 8.24 million tons, with a nominal growth rate of 9.57%. However, due to the concentration of downstream projects in the fourth quarter, the weighted actual demand growth rate may be only 3.86%, lower than the actual growth rate of new propylene production capacity. The inventory pressure will persist in Q1 - Q2, and the inventory may gradually be reduced in the second half of the year [7][116] 3.2 Market Analysis - In 2025, propylene supply was at a high level, with high upstream inventory and continuous price pressure. The core factor was the lack of obvious highlights in terminal demand. In the short term, there was no obvious sign of demand improvement. In the first half of 2026, the focus was on digesting the existing high inventory, but the supply remained loose. Attention should be paid to the positive feedback from PDH device maintenance [8] 3.3 Propylene 2025 Market Review - The domestic propylene spot price showed a downward trend in 2025, affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The price trend can be divided into four stages: a decline from the beginning of the year to early June, a short - term increase from late June to early August, a sharp decline from October to early November, and a weak rebound at the end of the year [17] - The propylene futures price showed a fluctuating downward trend, affected by the loose supply - demand situation and weak international oil prices. The game between warehouse receipt registration and delivery was an important factor affecting the futures price [18] 3.4 2026 China Propylene Commissioning Situation - From 2021 - 2025, the compound growth rate of propylene production capacity was 11.97%, with 9.485 million tons of new capacity in 2025, a growth rate of 13.6%. In 2026, the new capacity is expected to be 7.36 million tons, with a nominal growth rate of 9.3% (actual growth rate about 4.4%), lower than that in 2025 [25] 3.5 Propylene Supply Pattern and Production Profit Analysis - In 2025, the propylene supply was loose due to capacity expansion. The low - point of propylene operation mainly occurred in mid - to - late May, affected by PDH device maintenance. The profit of major refineries and PDH devices was compressed, which dragged down the operation rate, while the coal - based operation was less affected by profit [35][49] 3.6 Propylene Import - Export Pattern Analysis - In 2025, China's propylene imports decreased, and the import dependence declined. The import window remained closed, and the domestic price advantage was obvious. The import dependence is expected to further decrease [53] 3.7 Propylene Upstream Raw Material Propane Pattern Analysis - The price of propane had a significant impact on the profit of domestic PDH devices. In 2025, the propane price fluctuated greatly, affected by factors such as Sino - US tariffs, market demand, and supply. The price decline in the second half of the year compressed the profit of PDH devices and led to a decline in the operation rate [70] 3.8 Propylene Downstream Pattern Analysis - **Downstream Profit and Demand**: In 2025, the profit of propylene downstream products shrank, and the demand support was weak. Downstream factories mainly purchased propylene on a rigid - demand basis, putting downward pressure on the propylene price [86] - **2026 Downstream Commissioning Situation**: In 2026, the commissioning pace of propylene downstream projects slowed down. The converted propylene demand from downstream new projects was 8.24 million tons, with a nominal growth rate of 9.57%. However, the weighted actual demand growth rate may be only 3.86%, lower than the actual growth rate of new propylene production capacity. The inventory pressure will persist in the first half of the year and may be reduced in the second half [109][116] 3.9 Propylene and Downstream Inventory Situation and Outlook - In 2025, the propylene inventory remained high, and the high - production growth rate may continue in 2026. The inventory pressure of propylene and its downstream products such as PP and acrylonitrile will persist in the first half of 2026, but the PP inventory may be reduced in the first half of 2026 due to the slowdown of new capacity commissioning [117]