Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with low inventory and relatively insignificant market contradictions. Although the recent strong trend of crude oil prices has provided some support to asphalt prices, the upward space and driving force are limited. Currently, the overall demand lacks highlights, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand, resulting in a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On the afternoon of July 9th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 was 3,623 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 218,152 lots, a net increase of 476 lots, and the trading volume was 156,937 lots, a net increase of 21,483 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,640 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China, 3,600 - 3,700 yuan/ton; East China, 3,700 - 3,850 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in North China and South China markets declined yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral trading strategy: Expecting a sideways movement. - Strategies for inter - delivery spread, cross - commodity spread, spot - futures spread, and options: None [2] Figures and Data The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic asphalt weekly production, asphalt production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different sectors (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3].

Market News and Important Data - The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that officials were divided on interest rate cuts, with views falling into three camps: cutting rates this year but excluding July (the mainstream), keeping rates unchanged throughout the year, and advocating immediate action at the next meeting [1] - The EU aims to reach a trade agreement with the US by August 1st, and an agreement may be reached in the next few days. According to British media, the US and the EU will sign a temporary framework agreement, but the treatment will be worse than that of the UK. Trump sent tariff letters to eight countries, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 774.98 yuan/gram and closed at 766.82 yuan/gram, down 1.21% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 310,838 lots, and the open interest was 181,258 lots. In the night session, it opened at 767.50 yuan/gram and closed at 771.02 yuan/gram, up 0.19% from the afternoon close [2] - On July 9, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,940 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,899 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 613,081 lots, and the open interest was 327,567 lots. In the night session, it opened at 8,880 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,870 yuan/kilogram, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.42%, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.48%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the SHFE - On July 9, 2025, in the Au2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,504 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 795 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 439,015 lots, up 79.07% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 95 lots, and the short positions remained unchanged. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contracts on the previous trading day was 921,222 lots, down 28.68% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons compared to the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 31.09 tons to 14,966.24 tons [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On July 9, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 12.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -590.21 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 86.17, down 0.61% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 89.67, a change of -1.02% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On July 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 38,972 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,922 kilograms, up 57.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 19,910 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 188,940 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The market is concerned about the uncertain tariff policy, and the US Treasury yield has been rising for five consecutive days and is now gradually slowing down. The market trend is currently tangled, and the gold price is expected to be range-bound in the short term [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The gold-silver ratio is relatively high. If there is a need for hedging in the future, silver may be more favored by investors due to its relatively lower price compared to gold. Therefore, it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 锌锭累库趋势或已形成 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-9.88 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨120元/吨至22160元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至75元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨120元/吨至22090元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至5元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨120元/吨至 22100元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至15元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-09沪锌主力合约开于22175元/吨，收于22120元/吨，较前一交易日上涨115元/吨，全天交易日 成交154513手，较前一交易日减少4004手，全天交易日持仓114762手，较前一交易日减少4112手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22175元/吨，最低点达到21980元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-07，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.91万吨，较上周同期增加0.85万吨。截止2025-07-09，LME 锌库存为106700吨，较上一交易日减少1800吨。 市场分 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-10 液氯市场低迷，烧碱盘面延续反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4963元/吨（+69）；华东基差-153元/吨（-39）;华南基差-113元/吨（-49）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4810元/吨（+30）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润105元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-552元/吨（-48）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-695元/吨（-2）；PVC出口利润-6.9美元/吨（+0.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.6万吨（-0.9）；PVC社会库存37.3万吨（+1.1）；PVC电石法开工率80.73%（+0.30%）； PVC乙烯法开工率65.46%（-1.92%）；PVC开工率76.50%（-0.31%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量65.8万吨（+2.8）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2454元/吨（+46）；山东32%液碱基差77元/吨（-46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价810元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 光伏产业链报价上调，需注意政策推进情况 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-09，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于8200元/吨，最后收于8140元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-55） 元/吨，变化（-0.67）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓399029手，2025-07-09仓单总数为50792手，较前一日变化 -285手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8100-8300（100）元/吨，99硅价格在8100-8200（100）元/吨。现货价格持稳运行。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，山东单体企业线上DMC报价上调至 10700元/吨，较前期上涨400元/吨，上调主要原因为近期工业硅价格上涨带来的成本支撑增强，消费支撑较弱，有 机硅价格相对平稳。 策略 工业硅盘面受多晶硅影响较大，短期基本面稍有改善，西北大厂减产后复产时间未定，西南开工低于往年，下游 多晶硅产量 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 低库存弱预期，乙二醇窄幅波动 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4283元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.37%），EG华东市场现货价 4348元/吨（较前一交易日变动+5元/吨，幅度+0.12%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-63美元/吨（环比-1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为8元/吨（环比-7元 /吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为58.0万吨（环比+3.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为54.2万吨（环比+3.6万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数10.6万吨，周度港口库存去库； 本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，中性，后期进口回归下港口库存仍有回升压力。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性，但是仓单陆续注销流出后场 内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。需 求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂近期检修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - In June, the year-on-year CPI turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI year-on-year increase of 0.7% reached a 14-month high. The CPI as a whole presented the characteristics of "energy drag, food differentiation, and dual drivers of industrial products and services". The risks of pork overcapacity and the transmission of PPI industrial deflation to the consumer side need to be vigilant. [3] - In June, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened to 3.6%, and the month-on-month decline was 0.4%. The PPI presented the characteristics of "deepening drag from weak domestic demand, intensified differentiation between old and new driving forces, and effective policy support". Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement effects of high-tech production capacity release and infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [3] Summary According to the Directory 6-month CPI Recovery and PPI Pressure PPI - The year-on-year decline of PPI widened. In June 2025, PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (compared to -3.3% in May), and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. The cumulative PPI decline in the first half of the year was 2.8%. [7] - The supply and demand of energy and raw materials became more relaxed. The prices of coal mining and washing, coal processing, and power and heat supply industries decreased. The prices of black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products industries decreased, with the month-on-month decline widening. [7] - Export-dependent industries were under pressure. The prices of export-related industries such as computer and communication equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery manufacturing, and textile industries declined. [7] - The international input pressure was adjusted. Although the domestic gasoline price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month due to the rebound of international oil prices in June, there was still lagging pressure in the energy and chemical industry chain. The price of gold jewelry increased year-on-year, partially offsetting the downward pressure on energy. [7] - Some areas showed positive marginal changes. High-tech manufacturing industries showed enhanced resilience, and the demand for consumption and equipment manufacturing was released. The price of means of subsistence stabilized. [8] - The PPI data in June highlighted three characteristics: weakening of domestic demand seasonally, deepening differentiation between old and new driving forces, and initial effectiveness of policy transmission. [9][17] - In the future, attention should be paid to the disturbances of external geopolitics to the supply chains of crude oil and non-ferrous metals, the progress of internal high-tech industry production capacity release, and the pulling effect of infrastructure investment on raw material demand. [10] CPI - The CPI turned from a decline to an increase. In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year (compared to -0.1% in May), ending a four-month consecutive decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. [21] - The decline of food prices narrowed but still dragged down the CPI. The prices of fruits and aquatic products increased, while the prices of pork and eggs decreased. [21] - The drag of energy weakened, and the price turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month. The price of gasoline increased month-on-month, driving the energy price to turn from a decline to an increase. [21] - The service price increased steadily, and the policy effect was prominent. The service price increased by 0.5% in June. Affected by the "trade-in" policy, the prices of cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, household textiles, and household appliances increased. The price decline of automobiles narrowed. [23] - The CPI in June highlighted the following characteristics: the turning of the CPI to an increase marked the emergence of a short-term inflection point, but the recovery foundation was still unstable. The core CPI continued to rise, the drag of industrial products weakened, and the resilience of service consumption was strengthened. Attention should be paid to the risks that the continuous weakness of food prices may suppress the recovery of rural consumption, and the lagging effect of the transmission to CPI under the pressure of industrial demand. [23] Appendix: CPI and PPI Data for June 2025 - In June 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. The prices of food and consumer goods decreased, while the prices of non-food and services increased. [36] - In June, the prices of food and tobacco increased by 0.1% year-on-year and decreased by 0.3% month-on-month. Other seven major categories of prices showed six increases and one decrease year-on-year and three increases, two stabilizations, and two decreases month-on-month. [37][38] - In June 2025, the ex-factory price of industrial producers decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. [38] - In June, among the ex-factory prices of industrial producers, the prices of means of production and means of subsistence decreased. Among the purchase prices of industrial producers, the prices of most categories decreased, while the prices of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased. [40][41] National Bureau of Statistics Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of June 2025 CPI and PPI Data - The CPI increased year-on-year after a decline, and the core CPI continued to rise. The increase of CPI year-on-year was mainly affected by the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices. The decline of food prices narrowed slightly, and the service price increased steadily. The core CPI reached a new high in nearly 14 months. The CPI decreased month-on-month, with the decline narrowing. The decline of food prices was less than the seasonal level, the price of industrial consumer goods turned from a decline to an increase, and the service price increased steadily. [43][44][45] - The month-on-month decline of PPI was the same as last month, and the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery. The reasons for the decline of PPI month-on-month included the seasonal decline of domestic raw material manufacturing prices, the decline of energy prices driven by the increase of green electricity, and the pressure on the prices of some export-oriented industries. With the implementation of various macro policies, the prices of some industries showed a trend of stabilization and recovery due to the promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the implementation of consumption-boosting policies, and the accumulation of new driving forces. [46][47][48]

2025-07-08，股指板块成交5297.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+57.03%；持仓金额10838.98亿元，较上一交易日变动 +8.13%；成交持仓比为48.80%。 国债板块成交3260.07亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.65%；持仓金额9160.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.36%；成交 持仓比为35.99%。 基本金属板块成交4185.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+31.58%；持仓金额5069.95亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.21%； 成交持仓比为129.25%。 流动性日报 | 2025-07-09 市场流动性概况 贵金属板块成交2855.39亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.52%；持仓金额4320.77亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.67%；成交 持仓比为72.91%。 能源化工板块成交4350.40亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.84%；持仓金额4351.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.17%；成 交持仓比为75.71%。 农产品板块成交2793.86亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.35%；持仓金额5679.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.51%；成交 持仓比为42.51%。 黑色建材板块成交1518. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]