Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the domestic smelter comprehensive smelting loss expands, the supply pressure decreases, and the fundamentals are bullish. The zinc valuation is low, the future consumption is optimistic, the interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and the re - inflation has not yet been reflected [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,340 yuan/ton with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,260 yuan/ton with a premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,775 yuan/ton, closed at 24,295 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,175 lots, and the open interest was 96,459 lots. The highest price was 24,420 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,775 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 6, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 105,775 tons, down 75 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The spot market supply is tight, the downstream is reluctant to buy at high prices, the domestic smelting loss increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The fundamentals are favorable, the zinc valuation is low, and the future consumption is expected to be good [1][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 基本面变化有限 但有色整体带动铅价上行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-06，LME铅现货升水为-45.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17350 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至17375元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17375元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化100元/吨至17400元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10400 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-06，沪铅主力合约开于17385元/吨，收于17520元/吨，较前一交易日变化125元/吨，全天交易 日成交56885手，较前一交易日变化18820手，全天交易日持仓51000手，手较前一交易日变化3456手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17670元/吨，最低 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw continues, and treasury bond futures close down across the board. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The current fiscal policy aims to stabilize the aggregate, adjust the structure, and provide support. In the short term, it provides some support to the economy, but stronger impetus depends on the implementation of quasi - fiscal funds and next year's policy intensification [2]. - The financial data in November is generally weak. The follow - up stable growth still depends more on the monetary side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [9]. - **Economic indicators (monthly update)**: The social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, with a decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with an increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [10]. - **Economic indicators (daily update)**: The US dollar index is 98.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.27 and a growth rate of 0.27%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9763, with a month - on - month increase of 0.000 and a growth rate of 0.01% etc. [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing prices and price changes on January 6, 2026**: The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.37 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 107.70 yuan, and 110.93 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.05%, - 0.11%, - 0.13%, and - 0.31% respectively [3]. - **Net basis spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.048 yuan, - 0.026 yuan, 0.034 yuan, and - 0.055 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - In November, the year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue slowed down due to the high base, but the annual revenue progress was still fast. The expenditure decline narrowed significantly, and the structure was more inclined to people's livelihood and investment. The government - funded revenue was still dragged down by the real estate market, but the accelerated issuance of special bonds drove the year - on - year increase in expenditure [2]. - The financial data in November was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline. The growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On January 6, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 1.62 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.263%, 1.422%, 1.465%, and 1.569% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview The report provides various spread data, such as the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][34][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows data such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [38][41][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It includes the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [47][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [52][53]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It contains the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [58][60]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral strategy**: As repurchase rates decline, treasury bond futures prices oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 需求相对偏淡 但宏观因素令铜价维持偏强态势 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-06，沪铜主力合约开于 100890元/吨，收于 105320元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.92%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于104480元/吨，收于 104600 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.68%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价呈现贴水100元至升水60元区间，均价报贴水20元，较昨日下跌55元。 期铜主力早盘自102880元攀升至104100元后涨幅收窄。市场方面，平水铜由早间升水迅速转为贴水成交，午后贴 水扩大至100-70元，交投迟滞。预计高铜价将继续抑制需求，现货维持贴水格局，但需留意交割前可能的收货行为。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括从丹麦购买该 领土、与格陵兰建立自由联系协定，军事手段亦被列为选项之一。该官员称，特朗普希望在其本届任期内完成对 格陵兰岛的获取，并表示这一议题"不会消失"。白宫方面将获取格陵兰岛视为国家安全优先事项，尽管部分北约 领导人提出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has continued to improve, and attention should be paid to the disturbances on the cost side [2][3]. - On the supply side, propylene production has remained at a high level, and the upstream start - up has steadily recovered. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH devices are expected to be overhauled, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically [3]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid - demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and the overall start - up of PP powder has increased. The demand for propylene at the PP end is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The start - up of PO has declined slightly due to the reduction of some device loads. However, propylene is expected to rise further, which will continue to squeeze downstream profits, and the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3]. - The international oil price has rebounded slightly due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the disturbance of oil prices has increased. The CP official price of propane in January has risen more than expected, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. However, the rebound space is still limited under the limited improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the implementation of PDH device overhauls [3]. - The strategy suggests waiting and seeing. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly under the boost of sentiment, waiting for marginal device overhauls [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - This part may include figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, PL01 - 03 contract spreads, PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][7][13]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Startup Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][24]. III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Startup Rate - It involves figures such as the production profit and startup rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [5][39][52]. IV. Propylene Inventory - This part includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][65].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 双硅同步走强，减产支撑上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-06，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8900元/吨，较前一日结算变化（120） 元/吨，变化（1.37）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓234611手，2026-01-05仓单总数为10687手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。近日新疆石河子地区发布污染橙色警报，供应预 期收缩，短期供应压力减少支撑价格上行。有机硅企业周度产量环比变化有限。减排挺价背景下，有机硅单体企 业从12月初开始陆续降负减产。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The short - term increase is too large, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 132,600 yuan/ton and closed at 137,940 yuan/ton. The closing price increased by 8.99% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,237 lots, and the open interest was 534,999 lots (the previous day's open interest was 515,292 lots). The current basis was - 9,600 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,141 lots, a change of 2,860 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 120,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 - 130,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,680 US dollars/ton, an increase of 113 US dollars/ton [2] Policy Impact - On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document clarifying the subsidy policy for automobile trade - ins in 2026, which significantly improved the expectation of the decline in new - energy vehicle demand in the first quarter. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", which affected small and medium - sized mines in lithium mica production areas such as Yichun, Jiangxi, and strengthened the market's expectation of supply tightening [2] Inventory and Production - The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,667 tons, a decrease of 184 tons; the downstream inventory was 38,998 tons, a decrease of 894 tons; other inventories were 52,940 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow, and the weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. Options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, which may increase the demand for gold investment and lead to a slightly stronger and volatile gold price in the near term [1][8] - Silver prices are relatively stronger than gold due to geopolitical risks and ongoing physical shortages, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Trump administration is discussing various options to acquire Greenland, including purchase, free association, and military means, and this issue is considered a national security priority by the White House [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 994.02 yuan/gram, closed at 1004.98 yuan/gram, up 1.00% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 41,087 lots and an open interest of 129,725 lots. Overnight, it closed at 1008.74 yuan/gram, up 0.37% from the afternoon close [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,126.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 19,452.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.60% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,929,943 lots and an open interest of 277,149 lots. Overnight, it closed at 19,820 yuan/kilogram, up 1.89% from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 6, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.714%, also unchanged [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On January 6, 2026, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 1,662 lots and the short position decreased by 2,686 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts increased by 61.30% to 308,118 lots [4] - In the Ag2604 contract, the long position increased by 19,204 lots and the short position increased by 21,768 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 168.34% to 2,896,340 lots [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, while the silver ETF position decreased by 90 tons to 16,354 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 6, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.23 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,012.04 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 51.66, down 5.25% from the previous day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.10, up 2.03% [6] Fundamental Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 44,252 kilograms, up 0.55% from the previous day. The silver trading volume was 876,640 kilograms, up 33.34% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,000 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold is expected to trade in a range of 990 - 1015 yuan/gram, and the overall trend is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] - Silver is expected to trade in a range of 19,000 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [8] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The nickel and stainless steel markets showed strong performance on January 6, 2026. Although the fundamentals still indicate high inventory and oversupply, with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metals being in a long - term bottom - shock period, they are likely to attract the attention of profit - seeking funds from the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, and are expected to remain strong [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,100 yuan/ton and closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.13% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 738,334 (+371,441) lots, and the open interest was 131,481 (-3,248) lots. The overnight LME nickel rose 3.16% to $17,290/ton. The supply contraction expectation was the core driving force for price increase, and the strengthening of the outer market and the overall recovery of the non - ferrous sector provided a good external environment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The overall nickel ore resources in the market are limited, and the price remains stable. The Benguet mine in the Philippines is tendering for 1.25 nickel ore, and the mine maintains a bullish attitude. In January 2026 (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 147,700 yuan/ton, up 5,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 39,388 (+964) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,546 (+192) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The fundamentals still show high inventory and oversupply, but with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metal being in a long - term bottom - shock period, it is expected to remain strong. - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 13,395 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,101 (+51,971) lots, and the open interest was 63,161 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, it broke through the upper limit of the previous shock range, showing a cost - driven upward trend. Although the increase was less than that of Shanghai nickel, the trend was stable, with good volume - price coordination and improved technical patterns [3]. - **Spot**: The continuous strengthening of the futures market boosted market confidence, resulting in good market transactions and higher spot quotes. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 50 - 250 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to continue the shock - upward trend, and investors can consider adding positions on dips. In the medium - to - long term, beware of the risk of a high - level correction. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and the downstream inventory situation. - Unilateral: Neutral; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

中观事件总览 生产行业：1）2026年1月6日，全球消费电子展（CES）在拉斯维加斯举行。英伟达推出Alpamayo开源人工智能， 用于安全且基于推理的自动驾驶汽车。英伟达在CES 2026上宣布了Alpamayo系列开源人工智能模型、仿真工具和 数据集，以加速基于推理的自动驾驶汽车（AV）的开发。 服务行业：1）中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，中国人民银行要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策， 发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深 化金融改革和更高水平对外开放，增强宏观政策前瞻性针对性协同性，着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风险、 稳定社会预期，为经济稳定增长、高质量发展和金融市场稳定运行营造良好的货币金融环境。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：液化天然气价格回落。2）化工：PTA、尿素价格回落。3）有色：铜、铝、镍、锌价格大幅回升。 宏观日报 | 2026-01-07 上游价格分化 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：煤炭: 日均耗煤量: 六大发电集团 | ...