甲醇日报 | 2025-11-18 港口继续下挫，内地成交亦转淡 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润600元/吨（-3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1960元/吨（-45），内蒙北线基差531元/吨（-19），内蒙南线1960元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2140元/吨（-15），鲁 南基差311元/吨（+11）；河南2020元/吨（-40），河南基差191元/吨（-14）；河北2090元/吨（+0），河北基差321元/ 吨（+26）。隆众内地工厂库存369250吨（-17160），西北工厂库存205500吨（-27000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单245400 吨（+24307），西北工厂待发订单116500吨（-8000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2012元/吨（-43），太仓基差-17元/吨（-17），CFR中国239美元/吨（-3），华东进口价差-32元/ 吨（+5），常州甲醇2245元/吨；广东甲醇2015元/吨（-50），广东基差-14元/吨（-24）。隆众港口总库存1543600吨 （+56500），江苏港口库存836600吨（+451 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea trading atmosphere has improved. New orders were slow to follow up last week, but sales improved after price cuts. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, and compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is also winding down. Winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental protection factors. Melamine operating rate has increased, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. Gas - fired plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The news of export quotas has improved urea export expectations at the end of the year, which is expected to support the spot market. The Indian IPL has issued a new urea import tender, and the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm need to be continuously monitored [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report shows data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][11] 2. Urea Production - The report presents data on urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [20][25] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [29][30][33] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [35][40][50] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows data on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [52][53] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes data on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [56][57][61] Market Data Details - **Price and Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,662 yuan/ton (+10). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,590 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,580 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton (-20), in Henan was - 62 yuan/ton (-20), and in Jiangsu was - 82 yuan/ton (-20). Urea production profit was 60 yuan/ton (-10), and export profit was 1,048 yuan/ton (+116) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 84.08% (unchanged). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 148.36 million tons (-9.45), and the port sample inventory was 8.20 million tons (+0.30) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 17, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 30.32% (-0.72%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 57.48% (+4.28%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] Strategy - **Single - sided**: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - **Inter - period**: Wait - and - see - **Inter - variety**: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating for the industry provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength - weakness pattern of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is changing marginally, with the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil continuing to rebound. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, which suppresses the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's previously strong fundamentals are marginally loosening, but there are still support factors below. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait is marginally tightening due to device maintenance changes, and the strong overseas gasoline and diesel also boost the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, the state where low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to form a trend, and the upside space of the high - low sulfur spread may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.92% at 2593 yuan/ton during the day session, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.43% at 3236 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is in a weak oscillation state, and the expectation of oversupply in the oil market is suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil. The high - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is marginally tightening in some regions, with overseas gasoline and diesel boosting its valuation. But the medium - term trend of low - sulfur being stronger than high - sulfur is hard to form, and the high - low sulfur spread's upside space is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term and bearish in the medium term. For cross - variety, the previous long LU - FU spread positions can be appropriately stopped for profit. There are no strategies for cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2]. Charts - There are multiple charts including those showing Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, and the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3].

液化石油气日报 | 2025-11-18 市场支撑仍存，盘面延续震荡偏强 市场分析 1、\t11月17日地区价格：山东市场，4330-4460；东北市场，4010-4110；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4250-4350； 沿江市场，4520-4810；西北市场，4200-4250；华南市场，4300-4450。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2、\t2025年12月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4374元/吨，涨15元/吨，丁烷4311元/吨，涨23元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年12月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷555美元/吨，涨2美元/吨，丁烷547美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4327元/吨，涨15元/吨，丁烷4264元/吨，涨22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着基本面边际收紧，外盘价格上涨，近期LPG现货与盘面呈现震荡偏强走势。现货方面，昨日华北、东北及沿 江区域延续上涨，其余区域维稳，当前市场需求尚 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-18 青岛港口库存继续小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15315元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨；NR主力合约12355元/吨，较前一日变动+90 元/吨；BR主力合约10455元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前 一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1850美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1745美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年10月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.3万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源）， 环比今年9月下降约12%，比上年同期的6.64万辆大幅增长约40%。今年1-10月，我国重卡市场累计销量超过了90 万辆，达到91.6万辆，同比增长约22%，预计在11月过后，累计销量就会超过100万辆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report Core View - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes. - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The supply is slightly abundant, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Feed enterprises are cautious in building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3043 yuan/ton yesterday, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.58%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area as of November 12 was 12.9% of the total expected area, up from 4.4% a week ago but 7.4% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the five - year average. The estimated planting area is 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease. US private exporters reported selling 33.2 tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing but remains high. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - As of November 5, Argentine farmers sold 3072 tons of 2024/25 corn, 72 tons more than a week ago, and pre - sold 546 tons of 2025/26 corn, 46 tons more than a week ago. The Argentine corn spot price on November 5 was 270,000 pesos/ton, up from 267,500 pesos/ton a week ago [4] Market Analysis - New corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. Although the new - season Northeast corn has good yield and quality, port and production - area prices are rising. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to tight supply and rising prices. Feed enterprises are reluctant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. The supply is slightly abundant, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

农产品日报 | 2025-11-18 消费跟进不足，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11695元/吨，较前交易日变动-80.00元/吨，幅度-0.68%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-95，较前交易日变动-250；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 11.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.12元/公斤，现货基差LH01+55，较前交易日变动-150；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.24元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-455，较前交易日变动+80。 据农业农村部监测，11月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比上周五下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为127.53，比上周五下降0.05个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.98元/公斤，比上周五下降0.4%； 牛肉66.54元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1%；羊肉62.33元/公斤，比上周五下降1.0%；鸡蛋7.35元/公斤，比上周五下降 2.3%；白条鸡17.78元/公斤，比上周五下降0.1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View of the Report - The recent correction in precious metal prices is due to the market's pre - pricing of a possible pause in interest rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting. However, the long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, and prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance but also emphasized caution as interest rates approach the neutral level. Fed Governor Waller advocated for another rate cut in December due to a weak labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low - and middle - income consumers. White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out "mixed signals" in the job market, suggesting a possible slowdown, while real wages are rising and this trend will continue [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 940.88 yuan/gram and closed at 929.46 yuan/gram, a - 2.49% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 931.24 yuan/gram, a 0.19% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 12,220.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,933.00 yuan/kg, a - 3.38% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,558,545 lots, and the open interest was 311,515 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,975 yuan/kg and closed at 11,983 yuan/kg, a - 0.42% change from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 17, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.139%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10 - year to 2 - year spread was 0.54%, a - 0.5 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,432 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,625 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 724,872 lots, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 26,020 lots, and the short positions decreased by 21,951 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 2,791,606 lots, a - 5.26% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,044.00 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, an increase of 45 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 17, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 21.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 564.90 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 77.89, a 1.07% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 80.01, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On November 17, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 82,068 kg, a - 31.06% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 759,026 kg, a 32.12% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to oscillate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to oscillate between 11,700 yuan/kg and 12,200 yuan/kg [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

化工日报 | 2025-11-18 主港大幅累库，EG基差走弱明显 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3938元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.41%），EG华东市场现货价 3975元/吨（较前一交易日变动-7元/吨，幅度-0.18%），EG华东现货基差42元/吨（环比-11元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比+4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-967 元/吨（环比+39元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为73.2万吨（环比+7.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.8万吨（环比+5.4万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数17万吨，副 港到港量4.7万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副港到港量2.8万吨，整体中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，国内供应表现宽裕；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限， 单边：中性。投产压力较大，随着港口库存的回升，场内货源流动性增加，乙二醇现货基差趋弱。但近期高成本 装置负反馈逐渐出现，高供应和累库压力 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][8][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market lacks obvious upward drivers, with international and domestic markets facing supply - demand imbalances. In the short - term, cotton prices are under pressure, while in the long - term, they are expected to be more optimistic. The sugar market is in a globally over - supplied situation, but short - term price declines are limited, and long - term trends are not optimistic. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance, with supply remaining loose and demand weak, limiting the rebound of pulp prices [2][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Different Commodities Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,579 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the USDA's November report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, the harvest area is 44.729 million mu, with a constant abandonment rate of 20.7%. The expected yield per mu is 68.7 kg, up 6.7% from September, and the expected output is 3.073 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons from September. The expected consumption is 370,000 tons, and the expected export volume is 2.654 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from September. The ending inventory increases by 152,000 tons to 936,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's November report significantly increased the US cotton output, and the global cotton output, consumption, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment direction. The northern hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak. Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded. However, new cotton is still expected to increase in production, the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not prosperous, and it is currently the off - season for the textile industry, with insufficient demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the supply - demand is not too loose. After the seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, an increase of 3.902 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 292,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 16.40%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production was 38.085 million tons, an increase of 611,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [4][5] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a pattern of over - supply, with Brazil's supply remaining strong, India's sugar production expected to rebound significantly, and Thailand's sugar production also expected to increase. However, in the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening. The domestic new crushing season has a strong expectation of increased sugar production, but the current price is close to the cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price, and the syrup control policy is tightened, so the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the support around 5,400 is strong, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may not be optimistic next year, with the possibility of new lows [8] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.11%. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Baikal) was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with only a few pulp types showing a strengthening trend [9] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port inventory removal was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. Domestic demand was weak, and although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' operating rate declined [9] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [10]