Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. There will be concentrated new capacity additions from August to September. Domestic existing unit operations are still stable, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick - up has reached its peak and declined but remains at a decent level, leading to a decline in port inventory. Downstream operations of pure benzene are recovering from the bottom, but overall operations are still low, and short - term maintenance of styrene has dragged down the rigid demand for pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, downstream pick - up during the peak season remains at a relatively high level, and port inventory is waiting to be further reduced. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still high. There will be short - term maintenance in the first and middle of September, leading to a decline in operations, and port inventory has started to decline. However, operations may recover in the second half of September. Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of ABS and PS have slightly declined, EPS operations are decent, and ABS has a large inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [9][14][20] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [22][25][33][40] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][58] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][74][86] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go for a positive spread arbitrage when the EB2510 - EB2511 spread is low [4] - Cross - Product: Temporarily go for widening the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low [4]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Views - On September 18, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,268 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the East China spot basis was 83 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - The ethylene - made EG production profit was -$71/ton, up $2/ton; the coal - made syngas EG production profit was -180 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 46.5 tons, up 0.6 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 38.4 tons, up 2.1 tons. As of September 18, the inventory was 38.37 tons, down 1.19 tons or 3% from Monday, up 2.05 tons from last Thursday [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remained high and stable, and there were still many overseas supply losses. The import volume from September to October may be revised down. On the demand side, the demand recovery was slow, and the polyester load was expected to increase slightly [2] - In September, the EG balance sheet was slightly balanced, and the main port inventory was expected to remain low, but the early commissioning of two new plants suppressed market sentiment [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,268 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day; the East China spot price was 4,362 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the East China spot basis was 83 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - made EG production profit was -$71/ton, up $2/ton; the coal - made syngas EG production profit was -180 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] International Spread - No specific data was provided in the text Downstream Sales and Operation - The demand recovery was slow, orders were insufficient, and the polyester load was expected to increase slightly, but the increase might be limited [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 46.5 tons, up 0.6 tons; according to Longzhong data, it was 38.4 tons, up 2.1 tons. As of September 18, the inventory was 38.37 tons, down 1.19 tons or 3% from Monday, up 2.05 tons from last Thursday [1]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the prices in Shandong and Henan dropped to 1,580 yuan/ton, the transaction improved. After manufacturers raised the quotes, the transaction was average. - Domestic demand is weak, with urea factory inventories continuing to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start time of demand in Northeast China. - Urea production remains at a high level. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. - The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. - The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. In September, it is still the export window period, and urea exports are continuing with an accelerating pace, leading to a decline in port inventories. The export volume in August was 800,000 tons, and the export volume in September is still expected. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the month - on - month improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary of Each Section Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On September 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,670 yuan/ton (- 11). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,650 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,640 yuan/ton (- 10); in Jiangsu, it was 1,650 yuan/ton (+ 0). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 30 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Henan, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 1); in Jiangsu, it was - 20 yuan/ton (+ 11). The urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 10), and the export profit was 1,158 yuan/ton (- 5) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.1653 million tons (+ 32,600 tons), and the port sample inventory was 516,000 tons (- 33,400 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63% (+ 0.81%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+ 1.40%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.18 days (- 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; - Inter - variety: None [3] Sections in the Table of Contents - **Urea Basis Structure**: It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [5][1][6] - **Urea Production**: It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [5][23] - **Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate**: It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [5][27][35] - **Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit**: It includes figures of FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, CFR prices of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, FOB and CFR prices of small - and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [5][34][44] - **Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders**: It includes figures of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and the number of days of orders to be delivered [5][51][52] - **Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes figures of upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract positions, and main contract trading volume [5][55][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The postponement of the maintenance of two PX units has narrowed the de - stocking range of PX in the fourth quarter, weakening the previous de - stocking support. Coupled with more PTA maintenance plans, PX prices have fallen and PTA processing fees have widened [1] - The recent oil price has been oscillating, and the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored. The PX load in China has gradually recovered, and the PX balance sheet in September has changed from de - stocking to a loose balance. However, PX is still in a low - inventory state [1] - The PTA load is rising from a low level. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals are okay, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning expectations. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase is restricted [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase in September [2] - The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing margin has widened. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is still large supply - demand pressure under the new device commissioning [3] - For the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices in cross - variety trading, and there is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - The report presents PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][45] Downstream Polyester Load - The report shows the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][62] PF Detailed Data - The report presents the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and the available inventory days in pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][73][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [91][93][101]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market has certain short - term support but lacks further upward drivers. Without unexpected macro or supply - disruption events, price breakthrough space is limited, and the market will mainly move in a range. The market has shown resistance factors after a recent rebound, with abundant supply, high arrival volumes and port inventories. PDH profit has shrunk, and the overall operating rate has declined due to some device overhauls. [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 18, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4500 - 4550 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3970 - 4380 yuan/ton; North China market 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market 4400 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4610 - 4750 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; South China market 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton. [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 600 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton, and butane was 582 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4695 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, and butane was 4555 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 593 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton, and butane was 575 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4641 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton, and butane was 4500 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. [1] - In the spot market, prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River region decreased slightly yesterday, while other regions rebounded steadily with average trading volume and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The external market price also declined. [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to move in a range. Long positions established earlier can be appropriately liquidated at high prices. [2] - Inter - period: No strategy provided. [2] - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided. [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided. [2] - Options: No strategy provided. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic policy expectations are rising to counter external pressures, and incremental policies are expected to follow, with potential fiscal expansion [2]. - The US inflation outlook is clearer, and the Fed's rate cut supports the rise of US stocks and bonds, but the US market still faces recession risks [3]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different investment opportunities, and it is recommended to allocate commodities and stock index futures by going long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic: In August, external pressures increased, with weakened exports to the US but resilient non - US exports. The government has proposed policies for stable growth. The August economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and dull consumption", and the A - share market declined on September 18, while the bond market and commodity market also showed a downward trend [2]. - US: In August, the ISM manufacturing index contracted, CPI increased, PPI slowed, employment data was weak, and retail sales exceeded expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the UK central bank maintained the interest rate and slowed down quantitative tightening [3]. Commodity Analysis - Black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side; precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector has limited long - term supply, the energy supply is expected to be loose, and some chemical products have "anti - involution" space. Precious metals are suitable for multi - allocation, and agricultural products need to wait for fundamental signals [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. To - do News - On September 18, the Ministry of Commerce held a press conference. The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as Tiktok. On the same day, the A - share market had a volatile decline, with tourism stocks rising and gold, brokerage, and financial technology stocks falling [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "shockingly weak" for the unilateral strategy, while there are no ratings for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market has slow inventory reduction and insufficient positive drivers. The overall fundamentals are average, and the market may continue to operate with weak shocks. The cost - side drive is limited due to the weak fundamentals of crude oil, and locally, the supply growth is stronger than the terminal demand, leading to a thick market wait - and - see sentiment [1] 3) Summaries According to Related Contents Market Analysis - On September 18, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2511 in the afternoon session was 3,427 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 233,261 lots, a decrease of 329 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 151,997 lots, an increase of 10,727 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,886 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,480 - 3,770 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,480 - 3,540 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,550 - 3,650 yuan/ton in East China. The asphalt prices in the Northwest and North China markets rose yesterday, while the prices in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Shockingly weak; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Graphical Data - There are multiple graphs showing various aspects of the asphalt market, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, and near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, production from independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society (according to Longzhong's data) [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core View - On the supply side, the 650,000 - ton naphtha cracking new device of Yulong Petrochemical is planned to be put into production, and the PDH of Hebei Haiwei restarts. The propylene start - up rate increases month - on - month, and the supply is expected to recover. On the demand side, the spread between PP powder and propylene continues to shrink, and the profit is difficult to repair. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens due to cost pressure, but the pre - holiday replenishment demand may drive short - term demand support. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the oil price is under pressure, the price of external propane is adjusted, and the cost support is weakened [2] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The figures involved are the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] II. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The figures involved are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [41][43][54] V. Propylene Inventory - The figures involved are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-19 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油仍处于市场再平衡的阶段，近端供应相对充裕，库存较高，但压力相比前 期已有所缓和，市场结构持稳运行。参考IES数据，新加坡燃料油库存本周录得2541万桶，环比减少4.2%。这是新 加坡库存连续第二周下滑，但依然显著高于往年同期水平，高库存仍有待消化。 低硫燃料油方面，近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口，局部供应压力增加，但 同时西区套利船货量下滑，国产量维持中低位，且在第三批配额下发后国内炼厂无显著增产倾向，低硫燃料油市 场压力有限，裂解价差预计处于下有支撑上有阻力的状态。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 新加坡燃料油库存回落 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.24%，报2798元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.07%，报3410 元/吨。 昨日美联储降息25bp落地，原油市场反应不大，油价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been realized, and steel inventories continue to accumulate. The glass and soda ash markets show factory inventory destocking and significant downward movement in the futures market. The double - silicon market features firm spot prices and strong alloy performance [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy for Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, glass futures fluctuated downward. Downstream procurement was cautious, mainly for immediate needs. With the recent price increase, glass production and sales improved month - on - month. This week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous period, and factory inventory was 60.908 million heavy boxes, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease. There is still a supply - demand contradiction in the glass market, and the short - term premium in the futures market suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, soda ash futures also fluctuated downward. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking. This week, the operating rate was 85.53%, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, production was 745,700 tons, a 2.02% month - on - month decrease, and inventory was 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% month - on - month decrease. The supply - demand imbalance will continue with new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter, and the current premium in the futures market further suppresses price increases [1]. - **Strategy**: The price trend is expected to be oscillating and weakening [2]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy for Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, manganese silicon showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. The manganese ore market maintained a price - supporting sentiment. The final price of the mainstream steel tender was 6,000 yuan/ton, with the price in the northern market at 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton and in the southern market at 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton. Production and sales slightly increased, but enterprise inventory rose due to continuous production growth. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern tends to be loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4]. Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate and strengthen. The market sentiment was average, with the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas at 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton and 75 - grade ferrosilicon at 6,000 - 6,050 yuan/ton. Production and sales were differentiated, and factory inventory reached a high level, suppressing prices. The industry has an obvious supply surplus, and profits are constrained without industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [4].