1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by tight supply at the mine end and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 17, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.09/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap spread remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 17, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,520 yuan/ton and closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 74,591 lots, an increase of 37,245 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 74,585 lots, an increase of 36,168 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,520 yuan/ton and a low of 17,310 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,345 yuan/ton and closed at 17,250 yuan/ton, a 0.83% decrease from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 17, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 17, the LME lead inventory was 266,125 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Given the tight supply at the mine end, differentiated consumption, and continuous inventory accumulation before delivery, the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the inventory depletion rhythm, with the price range roughly between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton. For options, selling a wide straddle is recommended [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the market bottom to consolidate [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The asphalt market is experiencing low - level fluctuations on the disk with limited positive factors. The downward pressure on asphalt prices has eased, but there is a lack of clear positives and the upward driving force remains insufficient [1] Market Analysis - On November 17, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,032 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 194,477 lots, up 1,726 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 156,039 lots, down 111,877 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are: Northeast 3,156 - 3,700 yuan/ton; Shandong 2,990 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China 3,110 - 3,210 yuan/ton; East China 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions declined yesterday, while those in other regions were relatively stable [1] - The market bottom signal has emerged. The refinery operating rate and production have shown a downward trend. After the previous concentrated release of resources, there is a shortage of limited - quantity提货 in northern refineries. However, there is no clear sign of the release of winter - storage demand. The market sentiment is relatively flat, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, but US gasoline inventories are at a low level, and gasoline cracks continue to strengthen, which supports Asian aromatics for blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered but not opened up. The future arrival pressure in China may slow down, but in the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, and port inventories are rising faster. Domestic production operations continue to increase, while downstream operations are weak. Styrene maintenance is concentrated, waiting for recovery at the end of the month; phenol operations are dragged down by low operations of bisphenol A and PC; CPL operations remain at a low level, waiting for inventory reduction; aniline and adipic acid operations are fair [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories continue to decline, partly due to increased exports and partly due to low domestic operations. However, there are expectations of resumption in late November. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream demand for pick-up remains stable, but downstream operations are still low. EPS continues to reduce operations during the off-season, while ABS and PS operations are at a low level. Inventories of EPS and PS have decreased, but ABS still faces inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - continuous third contract spread. Figures related to EB include the EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - continuous third contract spread [7][12][16]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profits, and differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and other regions, as well as import profits of pure benzene and styrene [18][21][30]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate. For styrene, figures display the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [36][38][41]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][48][53]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [57][62][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, total inventory has decreased, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand have both weakened, the inventory pressure is large, and the consumption performance is average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the influence of anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9025 yuan/ton and closed at 9080 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 251,549 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 44,022 lots, a change of - 1323 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangzhou decreased more actively, and the overall social inventory decreased [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream monomer manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price of silicone products such as DMC and intended to jointly reduce production, but the implementation of production cuts was still to be discussed [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and go long on the dry - season contracts on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 54,060 yuan/ton and closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.57% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,246 lots (145,191 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 249,758 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type polysilicon was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a change of 3.09% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42 GW, a change of 5.14% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a change of - 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12 GW, a change of - 2.45% month - on - month [6]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region is expected to decline significantly [6]. Strategy - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated weakly on the day. The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The consumption performance was average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to operate in the short - term range. The December contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption of production in the northwest and shutdown in the southwest, changes in the start - up of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on global stock indices, which are undergoing an adjustment. After the adjustment of the technology sector, the overall trading volume in the market has declined, showing a rotational pattern with generally low sustainability. Some sectors have gradually fallen to support levels, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of these supports. The overall index is still moving around the previous central level, but individual stocks are showing significant differentiation. Caution is needed in operations, and hasty bottom - fishing should be avoided [2] 2. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][11] Spot Market Tracking Charts - On November 17, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3972.03, down 0.46%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13202.00, down 0.11%; the ChiNext Index was at 3105.20, down 0.20%; the CSI 300 Index was at 4598.05, down 0.65%; the SSE 50 Index was at 3012.07, down 0.87%; the CSI 500 Index was at 7235.35, unchanged; and the CSI 1000 Index was at 7523.08, up 0.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.9 trillion yuan [14][1] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contract of IH was at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased simultaneously. Specifically, the trading volume of IF was 114,292 (an increase of 4,303), and the open interest was 272,721 (an increase of 7,845); the trading volume of IH was 57,196 (an increase of 8,963), and the open interest was 101,114 (an increase of 3,993); the trading volume of IC was 116,917 (an increase of 305), and the open interest was 245,834 (an increase of 816). The trading volume of IM was 197,327 (an increase of 4,748), and the open interest was 355,153 (a decrease of 2,069) [1][18] - The report also provides data on the basis of stock index futures contracts (including current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts) and inter - period spreads of different contracts (such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) [39][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oils and fats industry is neutral [4] Report's Core View - The USDA released its monthly supply and demand report on Friday night, lowering the U.S. soybean yield, which was in line with market expectations, but raising Brazil's production forecast. The overall supply side is favorable, and with the smooth sowing in Brazil recently, the expectation of a bumper harvest persists. The overall supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains unchanged, and the prices will fluctuate [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,680 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 36 yuan or 0.42% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,282 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 26 yuan or 0.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,880 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 43 yuan or 0.43% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%. The spot basis was P01 + - 110 yuan, a环比 decrease of 46 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,470 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.24%. The spot basis was Y01 + 188 yuan, a环比 decrease of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,230 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 40 yuan or 0.39%. The spot basis was OI01 + 350 yuan, a环比 increase of 3 yuan [1] Recent Market Consultation - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 were 702,692 tons, a 10% decrease from the same period last month. According to SGS, the expected exports from November 1 - 15 were 334,295 tons, a 44.9% decrease from the same period last month [2] - As of last Thursday, 71% of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area and 85% of the first - season corn planting area in Brazil's central - southern region had reached the expected area [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 529 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 537 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,134 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,135 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a cautious and slightly bullish stance on PX, PTA, PF, and PR. However, due to fundamental pressures, the upside potential of the 01 contract may be limited. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the 05 contract. [4] - For PX, China's PX load has returned to a relatively high level. Supported by polyester production, PXN has support, but its upside space is restricted by high PX load and capacity expansion of some units. The focus is on the gasoline blending situation. [4] - Regarding TA, there are many maintenance plans in November, so the inventory accumulation pressure is not significant. But after December, as demand weakens, the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge. The market has abundant spot supply, limiting the upside of the 01 contract. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. [4] - For PF, the load is high, factory inventories have been reduced to a low level, and the fundamentals provide some support. Processing fees are expected to remain stable. [4] - For PR, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed significantly. Maintenance continues, but the off - season demand is average. It is expected that the spot processing fees of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. [4] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report presents figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [8][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes figures on PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits. [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report shows figures on toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits. [24][26] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It provides figures on PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX load in China and Asia. [27][30][32] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA's warehouse receipt inventory, PX's warehouse receipt inventory, and PF's warehouse receipt inventory. [35][38][39] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It presents figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [47][49][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - The report shows figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, spreads between original and recycled fibers, and the operating rates and production profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [68][72][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot and export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads. [87][89][100]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Apple strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date strategy: Neutral to bearish [8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable. The market should focus on the inventory volume in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipping speed in the western region [2][3] - Red dates: The new red dates are expected to be listed intensively, and the inventory pressure is high. The future market trend depends on the actual consumption at the consumer end [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract was 9438 yuan/ton, a change of - 132 yuan/ton or - 1.38% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of Red date 2601 contract was 9270 yuan/ton, a change of + 80 yuan/ton or + 0.87% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western出库 work continues, with more buyers in western warehouses. Ground transactions are ending, mainly in Shanxi paper - wrapped film area and western towns of Shandong Qixia. The quality of ground goods is declining, and fruit farmers are selling at market prices [2] - The price of high - quality apples in the west is expected to remain stable and firm, and the price of ordinary goods will remain stable [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hetian and Qiemo is basically over, while that in Aksu and Alar is accelerating. The market adheres to the principle of pricing by quality [6] - The spot price in the sales area is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term [6] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price showed a downward trend yesterday. The western出库 work is advancing, and the warehouse transactions in Gansu and Shaanxi are active. The ground transactions are ending, and the inventory volume is lower than last year [3] - The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price rose slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the main production areas is uneven, and the enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average [7] - The acquisition enthusiasm in the sales area has weakened, and the inventory is accumulating. The quality of new dates is better than last year [7] Group 6: Charts - There are multiple charts related to apple and red date prices, futures contracts, yields, consumption, inventory, and shipment volume, with data sources from Steel Union and Huatai Futures Research Institute [10]

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-18 下游装置集中重启带动需求回升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5913元/吨（-4），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5845元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差-13元/吨（+29），丙烯华北基差-45元/吨（+53）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR148美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR60美元/吨（-1），进口利润-279元/吨（+25），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-115元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-186元/吨（-25）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-280元/吨 （-28）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润561元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-242元/吨（-31）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...