Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The situation in Venezuela is developing as previously predicted, with the trapped Venezuelan oil gradually being absorbed by the US. US Gulf refineries, currently processing 150,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil, can increase their consumption capacity to 500,000 barrels per day. This implies that Venezuelan oil will displace other compliant oils like Canadian heavy oil. Trump's actions are aimed at controlling resources, changing their flow, and obtaining oil rights, rather than cutting off supply [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On March 1, the London Brent crude oil futures price for delivery rose by $1.01 to $61.76 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The SC crude oil main contract fell by 0.28% to 426 yuan per barrel [1]. - On January 7, Chevron booked a small number of vessels to head to Venezuela. After the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro by the US military, it became the sole exporter of Venezuelan oil. At least 11 tankers chartered by the US oil giant are scheduled to arrive at Venezuelan ports this month, up from 9 in December and the highest since October [1]. - On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Carney downplayed concerns that increased Venezuelan oil production might impact the Canadian energy industry. He stated that Canadian crude oil remains competitive due to political and institutional stability, lower production costs, and progress in reducing carbon emissions [1]. - On January 6, after the unexpected arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, US oil stocks continued to rise. Chevron, the only US oil company operating in Venezuela, rose 0.7% in pre - market trading after a sharp increase on Monday. Other oil giants such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips also rose in pre - market trading [1]. - The Trump administration has asked Venezuelan interim leader Rodriguez to take a series of pro - US actions, including combating drug smuggling, expelling personnel from countries hostile to Washington, and stopping oil sales to US adversaries [1]. - US President Trump stated on social media that the Venezuelan interim administration will transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned oil to the US, which will be sold at market prices, and the proceeds will be used for the benefit of the Venezuelan and American people [1]. Investment Logic - The situation in Venezuela is developing as expected, with US refineries having the capacity to increase the consumption of Venezuelan oil, which will displace other compliant oils [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3]. Risk - Downside risks include the achievement of a Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 油厂开机上升，豆粕延续震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2776元/吨，较前日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.80%；菜粕2605合约2390元/吨，较前 日变动+29元/吨，幅度+1.23%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差 M05+334，较前日变动-2；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M05+294，较前日变动-2； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动跌+40元/吨，现货基差M05+334，较前日变动+18。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM05+210，较前日变动-9。 近期市场资讯，1月5日，美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2026年1月1日当周，美国大豆出口检验 量为98万吨，此前市场预估为75-115万吨，前一周修正后为77.3万吨，初值为75万吨。12月25日止当周，美国当前 市场年度大豆出口销售净增117.77万吨，较之前一周增加19%，较前四周均值减少20%。市场预估为净增70-180万 吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are fluctuating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, with limited price volatility. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials will begin, and the game between reality and expectations will intensify. Plates are still restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. - The market sentiment for iron ore has improved, and prices are slightly fluctuating. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The price is at a high - level range in the short term but may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled [3]. - The molten iron output has slightly increased, and coking coal and coke prices are fluctuating widely. After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve, while the supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term [5][6]. - The pit - mouth coal price is adjusting, and the supply in the production area is recovering. The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The national building material prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the national building material trading volume was 96,623 tons [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have no obvious supply - demand contradictions, maintaining low production, consumption, and inventory. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will start. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price fluctuated upward, and the trading volume increased significantly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Shandong ports rose slightly, with low trading volume and low procurement intention from steel mills [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the overall inventory has increased significantly. The market gives a high valuation to the iron ore price, but it may face a downward risk once the negotiation is settled. In the short term, the actual inventory pressure is limited, and the price will maintain a high - level range [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. The coke market continued to be weak and stable, and the inventory pressure of upstream coke has been alleviated. The coking coal auction prices mostly continued to decline, and the price of imported Mongolian coking coal decreased [5]. - Supply and demand logic: After New Year's Day, the demand for coke is expected to improve. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the price may be weak in the short term. After the winter storage, the price may be further adjusted [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal mines are resuming production, and the pit - mouth coal price is adjusting. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the trading volume at ports is light. The import coal market is rising steadily [7]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still not good. After New Year's Day, the supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are oscillating. Glass and soda ash are showing an oscillatory upward trend due to stable downstream consumption. Silicon ferroalloys (silicon manganese and silicon iron) are also experiencing price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as electricity costs, supply - demand relationships, and steel procurement [1][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated upward yesterday, while the spot market's transaction center shifted downward, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The soda ash futures market also oscillated upward, but downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is still significant. Although some production lines are gradually cold - repairing, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. There is a large inventory pressure, and there is a possibility of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The market has expectations for the post - Spring Festival peak season. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. Supply has decreased, and demand has weakened, leading to a month - on - month increase in inventory. With new soda ash projects planned for commissioning and the possibility of increased cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to control the production profit of soda ash enterprises [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is also expected to oscillate. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: The manganese silicon futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the overall sentiment improving. The market is oscillating, and market participants are waiting for the new round of steel procurement. The 6517 manganese silicon is priced at 5570 - 5670 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton in the southern market. The silicon iron futures market rose significantly due to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Traders are actively purchasing during the January steel procurement, and the overall sales are good. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural lump is priced at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron is priced at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not good, with production still higher than demand and a significant increase in inventory. Although the resumption of steel mills after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for manganese silicon, the high inventory pressure restricts price increases. The low inventory of manganese ore at ports provides price support. For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated. Enterprises have actively reduced production, leading to a significant decrease in factory inventory. After the resumption of steel mills, the rigid demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi will increase the production cost of silicon iron enterprises, and the futures market is in a loss state [3]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon is expected to oscillate, and silicon iron is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4].

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: The price of liquefied natural gas has declined [2] - Agriculture: The price of pork has slightly rebounded [2] - Non-ferrous metals: The prices of aluminum, nickel, copper, and zinc have significantly rebounded [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate reached a seasonal high yesterday, while other chemical products were at a low level [2] - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants was at a seasonal low [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first- and second-tier cities continued to recover [2] - Services: The number of domestic flights increased [2] Key Industry Price Indicators Agriculture - Spot price of corn: 2,248.6 yuan/ton, -0.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of eggs: 6.4 yuan/kg, 0.63% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of palm oil: 8,480.0 yuan/ton, -0.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of cotton: 15,602.8 yuan/ton, 0.35% year-on-year [34] - Average wholesale price of pork: 18.0 yuan/kg, 2.10% year-on-year [34] Non-ferrous Metals - Spot price of copper: 100,653.3 yuan/ton, 6.06% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of zinc: 23,952.0 yuan/ton, 3.87% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 23,323.3 yuan/ton, 5.98% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of nickel: 139,250.0 yuan/ton, 6.66% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of aluminum: 17,343.8 yuan/ton, 0.40% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of rebar: 3,228.0 yuan/ton, -0.09% year-on-year [34] Ferrous Metals - Spot price of iron ore: 817.1 yuan/ton, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of wire rod: 3,492.5 yuan/ton, 0.72% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of glass: 12.8 yuan/square meter, -0.23% year-on-year [34] Non-metals - Spot price of natural rubber: 15,575.0 yuan/ton, 1.08% year-on-year [34] - China Plastic City Price Index: 752.7, 0.30% year-on-year [34] Energy - Spot price of WTI crude oil: 57.3 US dollars/barrel, 1.02% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of Brent crude oil: 60.8 US dollars/barrel, 0.25% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of liquefied natural gas: 3,238.0 yuan/ton, -2.18% year-on-year [34] - Coal price: 795.0 yuan/ton, -0.75% year-on-year [34] Chemical Industry - Spot price of PTA: 5,079.1 yuan/ton, 0.45% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of polyethylene : 6,410.0 yuan/ton, 0.52% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of urea: 1,725.0 yuan/ton, -1.85% year-on-year [34] - Spot price of soda ash: 1,208.6 yuan/ton, -1.40% year-on-year [34] - National cement price index: 135.3, -0.57% year-on-year [34] Real Estate - Building materials composite index: 115.3 points, -0.09% year-on-year [34] - National concrete price index: 90.4 points, 0.00% year-on-year [34] Other Information Production Industry - On the afternoon of January 5th, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two sides emphasized strengthening cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, green industries, and the silver economy [1] Service Industry - The application for the child-raising subsidy in 2026 has been fully open since January 5th. As of 12:00 on the 5th, the child-raising subsidy information management system was operating smoothly. The biggest change in the online application for the 2026 child-raising subsidy is the addition of a renewal function. As of now, all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China have issued the 2025 child-raising subsidy, with a cumulative number of over 24 million people, and the issuance rate in 2025 reached about 80% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various stock index options on January 5, 2026, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market situation of stock index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On January 5, 2026, the trading volumes of various options were as follows: Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF option (Shanghai) was 78.90 million contracts; CSI 500ETF option (Shanghai) was 105.32 million contracts; Shenzhen 100ETF option was 3.50 million contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 169.50 million contracts; SSE 50 stock index option was 5.11 million contracts; Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index option was 10.32 million contracts; and CSI 1000 option was 31.41 million contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes of each option is shown in Table 1 [19] 2. Option PCR - The PCR data of various options and their changes are presented. For example, the turnover PCR of SSE 50ETF option was 0.58, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23; the position PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of + 0.18. Similar data for other options are also provided [2][34] 3. Option VIX - The VIX data of various options and their changes are given. For instance, the VIX of SSE 50ETF option was 14.79%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.35%. The data for other options are also included [3][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical events and economic data may boost the allocation value of physical assets such as gold, and the market's risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential increase in the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [1][8] Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Switzerland has frozen all assets held by Maduro and related individuals in Switzerland, which may further promote the allocation value of physical assets such as gold [1] - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders remain weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 991.00 yuan/gram and closed at 995.00 yuan/gram, a change of 1.78% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.60 yuan/gram, a 0.66% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,200.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 6.87% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 671,811 lots, and the open interest was 238,881 lots. The night session closed at 18,745 yuan/kilogram, a 2.73% decrease from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.165%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.71%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 214 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,347 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 191,025 lots, a change of -27.68% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 9,187 lots, and the short positions changed by 3,136 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,079,343 lots, a change of -6.54% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 1,065.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,444 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 4.45 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -834.29 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 54.53, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.11, a change of 2.03% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 44,012 kilograms, a change of -29.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,430 kilograms, a change of -2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 9,030 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, and the Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 18,400 yuan/kilogram and 19,400 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 氧化铝现货价格继续下调 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化850元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价23080元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-450元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23250元/吨，较上一交易日变化870元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-280 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-05日沪铝主力合约开于23085元/吨，收于23645元/吨，较上一交易日变化905元/吨，最 高价达23780元/吨，最低价达到23065元/吨。全天交易日成交335721手，全天交易日持仓261132手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-05，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存68.4万吨，较上一期变化1.5万吨，仓单库存82796 吨，较上一交易日变化1127吨，LME铝库存506750吨，较上一交易日变化-2500吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-05SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2665元/吨，山东价格录得2610元/吨，河南价格录得 269 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. With rising global trade uncertainty increasing the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The current fiscal policy stabilizes the total amount, adjusts the structure, and provides support. In the short term, it supports the economy, but stronger impetus depends on the implementation of quasi - fiscal funds and next year's policy reinforcement. In the context of weakening demand and expected policy easing, subsequent stable growth relies more on monetary policy [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.10% and同比 is 0.70%; China's PPI monthly环比 is 0.10% and同比 is - 2.20% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a环比 growth rate of 0.54%; M2同比 is 8.00%, down 0.20% from the previous period; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, up 0.90% from the previous period with a环比 growth rate of 1.83% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.33, down 0.11 with a环比 change rate of - 0.11%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.9760, up 0.005 with a环比 change rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.42, down 0.01 with a环比 change rate of - 0.35%; DR007 is 1.43, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of 0.18%; R007 is 1.51, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of - 0.31%; The 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, up 0.06 with a环比 change rate of 3.61%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 with a环比 change rate of 3.61% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.71 yuan, 107.86 yuan, and 111.32 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.03%, - 0.02%, 0.03%, and - 0.05% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.015 yuan, - 0.037 yuan, 0.042 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In November, the general public budget revenue slowed down year - on - year due to the high base, but the annual revenue progress was still fast. The expenditure decline narrowed significantly, with a more people - oriented and investment - in - people structure. Government - managed funds revenue was still dragged down by real estate, but the accelerated issuance of special bonds drove the expenditure to turn positive year - on - year, supporting the broad - based fiscal situation [2]. - In November, financial data was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the medium - and long - term financing demand of residents and enterprises continued to decline. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing. M1 and M2 growth rates declined simultaneously, indicating weak economic vitality [2]. - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.264%, 1.423%, 1.457%, and 1.574% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - There are various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of treasury bond futures, the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads (e.g., 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [29][34][36]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are indicators such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [38][41][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are indicators such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [46][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are indicators such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [54][55]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are indicators such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [60][62]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price was driven by funds and sentiment, with the main contract 2605 opening at 125,000 yuan/ton and closing at 129,980 yuan/ton, a 7.74% change from the previous settlement price. The price increase was due to new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors, although it didn't break through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow down, and the market showed a divergence between futures and spot prices. The current futures price is mainly dominated by funds and sentiment, with over - speculation [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On January 5, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 125,000 yuan/ton and closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, up 7.74% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 343,623 lots, and the open interest increased from 490,194 lots to 515,292 lots. The basis was - 4,360 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,281 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 - 119,000 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,568 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Driving Factors**: The price increase was driven by new long - term funds entering the market, the overall strength of the non - ferrous metals sector, and technical factors. The news about Ningde Times' lithium mine tailings affected the bulls but its authenticity needs verification [1]. Inventory and Production - **Inventory**: The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory decreased by 184 tons to 17,667 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 894 tons to 38,998 tons, and other inventories increased by 910 tons to 52,940 tons. The de - stocking speed continued to slow down [2]. - **Production**: The weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous week [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - **Options**: None [3] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: None [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4] - **Futures - spot**: None [4]