Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - The Fed's rate cut is in line with expectations, leading to an adjustment in commodities and relatively weak rubber prices this week. In the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas production areas, mainly Thailand, are still affected by rainfall. It is expected that overseas raw material prices will remain firm, and the cost - side support for rubber may still be strong. The domestic arrival volume has slightly recovered, but the recent concentrated purchasing by downstream has led to a continuous decline in Qingdao port inventory in the past week. After the end of maintenance, the downstream tire operating rate has rebounded again, and the overall downstream demand shows a pattern of seasonal improvement. However, after the downstream restocking is completed, it is expected that there will still be pressure for the domestic port inventory to rise. For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently, mainly due to the weakening of crude oil prices, which may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices. At the same time, the butadiene inventory has gradually increased recently, and there may be pressure after the downstream restocking is completed. The fundamentals of BR itself still show a good pattern, and there are maintenance plans for several BR production facilities, which are expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. The downstream tire demand is in a peak season, with increased purchasing by tire factories, and the operating rate has rebounded after the end of maintenance. The large price difference with natural rubber also supports the BR price [6] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,570 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,300 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,415 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 664,000 tons, an increase of 7.8% compared with 616,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From January to August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 5.373 million tons, an increase of 19% compared with 4.514 million tons in the same period of 2024. - Export: According to QinRex data, in the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 1.05 million tons, an increase of 14.4% compared with 920,000 tons in the same period of 2024. In August alone, the export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 84,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 1% month - on - month and an increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 units in the same period of the previous year. From January to August this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13%. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6% respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million units, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the RU basis was - 820 yuan/ton (- 40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 820 yuan/ton (- 60), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,576 yuan/ton (- 140.37), the NR basis was 709.00 yuan/ton (+ 91.00); the price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 350), the price of mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 30), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (- 200); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,650 yuan/ton (- 50). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai rubber latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.10), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.60), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.70). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 66.36% (+ 0.05%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.74% (+ 0.13%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,235,510 tons (- 22,205.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 586,639 tons (- 5,636), the RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (- 10,490), and the NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (- 605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 18, 2025, the BR basis was 35 yuan/ton (+ 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,700 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,450 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,400 yuan/ton (- 150), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,710 yuan/ton (- 100). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 69.72% (- 3.76%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 7,820 tons (- 390), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,900 tons (- 400) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. For BR, also maintain a neutral view [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market's major indices showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with most sector indices declining. Only the electronics, communication, and social services sectors closed in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15% to 3831.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 3.1 trillion yuan. The U.S. stock market's three major indices all hit new closing highs, with the Nasdaq rising 0.94% to 22470.725 points. [1] - The market adjustment will continue, and it is maintained that the Shanghai Composite Index will be in a volatile adjustment in September. However, there are still structural opportunities in the market. During this market adjustment, the fundamentals and capital enthusiasm of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more advantageous, showing greater resilience. The sentiment weakened yesterday, and the volatility of related options decreased significantly. Opportunities for bottom - up layout can be considered in the next few trading days. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Situation**: In the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment increased continuously. In 2024, the total R & D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020, and the R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, A - share indices rose and then fell. Most sector indices declined, with only a few sectors closing in the green. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 3.1 trillion yuan. In the U.S., the three major stock indices all hit new closing highs. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures decreased on the delivery day of the current - month contract, and both trading volume and open interest increased. [1] 2. Strategy - The market adjustment will continue, and the Shanghai Composite Index will be in a volatile adjustment in September. There are structural opportunities, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing more resilience. Opportunities for bottom - up layout can be considered in the next few trading days. [2] 3. Charts 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends. [5] 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3831.66 (down 1.15% from the previous day), the Shenzhen Component Index was 13075.66 (down 1.06%), the ChiNext Index was 3095.85 (down 1.64%), the CSI 300 Index was 4498.11 (down 1.16%), the SSE 50 Index was 2912.83 (up 0.17%), the CSI 500 Index was 7199.88 (down 0.83%), and the CSI 1000 Index was 7476.40 (down 1.04%). [11] - Also include charts of trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances. [11] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 220,019 (an increase of 57,520), and the open interest was 288,603 (an increase of 14,691). [15] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures decreased. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract was - 10.91 (a decrease of 13.09). [36] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of stock index futures are provided, such as the IF's next - month minus current - month spread was - 11.20 (a change of + 0.20). [42]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous commodities generally corrected. Domestic downstream price - fixing enthusiasm increased, and the spot discount was slightly repaired but still weaker than the off - season. The internal - external ratio is widening, with the LME inventory falling below 50,000 tons and the spot export window about to open. The domestic fundamentals are weak, with large supply pressure and difficult de - stocking. Overseas has strong support, and attention should be paid to overseas interest rate cut frequency and inflation data [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $24.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 21,990 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 80 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On September 18, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,175 yuan/ton, closed at 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 119,872 lots, and the open interest was 71,757 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,950 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 48,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined significantly, and coal inventories have increased; egg prices have risen substantially [2] Midstream - The operating rates of PX and PTA have remained stable [3] Downstream - The movie box office is in the off - season, and the number of domestic and international flights has slightly decreased [4] Meso - level Event Overview Production Industry - The Minister of Science and Technology introduced that in the field of humanoid robots, breakthroughs have been made in overall machine technology, and progress has been achieved in key technologies such as multi - modal perception and brain - cerebellum models, promoting the in - depth integration with embodied intelligence and accelerating the application of humanoid robots in scenarios such as automobile manufacturing, logistics handling, and power inspection [1] Service Industry - The National Health Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Administrative Specifications for the Child - Rearing Subsidy System (Trial)", streamlining the application and review processes, clarifying eligibility, optimizing the application procedures, and emphasizing the role of big - data review [1] Key Industry Price Indicators | Industry Name | Indicator Name | Price on 9/18 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 2287.1 yuan/ton | - 0.87% | | | Spot price: Egg | 8.0 yuan/kg | 9.89% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9366.0 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 15329.5 yuan/ton | 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 19.6 yuan/kg | - 1.91% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 80043.3 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 22006.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 20906.7 yuan/ton | 0.13% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 123016.7 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 17062.5 yuan/ton | 1.26% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 3141.0 yuan/ton | 0.56% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 807.6 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 3342.5 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | | Spot price: Glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 1.06% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 14850.0 yuan/ton | - 1.38% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 793.3 | - 0.24% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 63.7 dollars/barrel | 0.05% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 67.5 dollars/barrel | - 0.04% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 3854.0 yuan/ton | - 0.72% | | | Coal price: Coal | 781.0 yuan/ton | 0.51% | | | Spot price: PTA | 4644.0 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | Chemical Industry | Spot price: Polyethylene | 7396.7 yuan/ton | 0.07% | | | Spot price: Urea | 1672.5 yuan/ton | - 0.07% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | | Cement price index: National | 131.5 | 0.43% | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | 114.0 points | 0.89% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 91.8 points | - 0.62% | [38]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-19 消费端仍有支撑，碳酸锂库存继续去化 市场分析 2025-09-18，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73120元/吨，收于72880元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.74%。当日 成交量为502269手，持仓量为281411手，前一交易日持仓量294624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-150元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39354手，较上个交易日变化120手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72700-74200元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价70600-71800元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨。6%锂精矿价格830美元/吨，较前一日变化5美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料厂逢跌点价采购比较活跃，价格反弹后则回归谨慎观望。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游材料厂存在 一定国庆节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳酸锂占比已 超过60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。整体来看，9月市场呈现供需同 步增长、但需求增速更快的态势，预计当月将 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities experienced an expected correction, and the aluminum spot discount quickly recovered. The supply side remained unchanged, and consumption showed positive signs. Although the social inventory performance was not satisfactory, attention should be paid to macro - influences, and the consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad [6]. - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina are running weakly. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The cost side supports the price, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum was - 30 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount changed by 50 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,730 yuan/ton, a change of - 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount changed by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 20,890 yuan/ton, closed at 20,785 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,900 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,705 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 227,638 lots, and the position was 250,178 lots [2]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 638,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 74,465 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 513,900 tons, a change of 30,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On September 18, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,990 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,960 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,030 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,185 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 325 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On September 18, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,944 yuan/ton, closed at 2,931 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change amplitude of - 0.34%. The highest price was 2,977 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,916 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 433,801 lots, and the position was 306,866 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On September 18, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,200 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,800 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,341 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 159 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, non - ferrous commodities corrected as expected. The supply side remained stable, and consumption showed positive signs. The production of downstream processing enterprises such as aluminum rods, aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to increase month - on - month, and the downstream operating rate increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the macro - influence, the frequency of US interest rate cuts, and inflation data in the later stage. The consumption in the seasonal peak season is expected to strengthen both at home and abroad, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm of aluminum ingots and rods [6]. Alumina - The in - plant price of 10,000 tons of alumina purchased in Qinghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, equivalent to an ex - factory price of 2,970 yuan/ton in Shanxi. India closed a deal of 30,000 tons at FOB 331 US dollars/ton, and Indonesia closed a deal of 27,000 tons at FOB 318 US dollars/ton. The supply surplus situation persists, and the social inventory continues to increase. The cost support of the alumina industry is relatively favorable, and the further decline space is limited. However, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently no rebound momentum [6][7]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports the price. The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 460 yuan/ton. The November contract has become a peak - season contract, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - Positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Since the Fed's interest rate meeting, copper prices have declined due to the implementation of interest rate cuts, but other fundamental factors have not changed significantly. In the long term, the Fed may continue to cut interest rates, so copper prices are expected to strengthen again in the future. It is recommended to conduct buy hedging on dips around the 79,000 - 79,300 yuan/ton level. Arbitrage should be postponed, and short put options at 78,000 yuan/ton are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 79,620 yuan/ton, a -1.17% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,680 yuan/ton and closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, a 0.10% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized. The average price of SMM 1 copper was 79,880 - 80,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 70 yuan/ton (unchanged) over the main contract. The buying and selling sentiment both improved. It is expected that downstream procurement will continue on Friday, and the premium may remain stable [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. However, the number of continued claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3]. - **Industrial Dynamics**: The US government is promoting a $5 - billion mineral investment fund. If established, it will be the US government's first direct participation in large - scale mineral transactions [3]. 3.3 Mine - End Situation - In August 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.76 million tons, a 7.81% month - on - month increase and a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The import value was $7.50821 billion, an 8.39% month - on - month increase and an 18.00% year - on - year increase [4]. - Canadian copper company Ivanhoe Mines agreed to a $500 - million investment from Qatar, giving the Qatar Sovereign Wealth Fund a 4% stake in the company [4]. 3.4 Smelting and Import Situation - In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 112,916 tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. The cumulative exports from January to August were 1.046963 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase [5]. - In August 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to August were 3.54 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In August 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 1.301 million tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. In September, due to maintenance and anode copper supply shortages, production is expected to decline significantly [5]. 3.5 Consumption Situation In August 2025, China's copper product output was 2.222 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase. The cumulative output from January to August was 16.598 million tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Situation - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,175 tons to 148,875 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 822 tons to 32,469 tons [6]. - On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 148,900 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.7 Price and Basis Data The report provides data on spot premiums, different types of copper prices, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis spreads, and arbitrage ratios from September 12, August 20 to September 19, 2025 [26][27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate center continued to decline in the first half of October, and HPL attempted to raise the price in the second half of the month. For the October contract, it is relatively safe to allocate short positions, but the key lies in the downward space. The uncertainty lies in the quotes for the second half of October. If HPL's price increase is successful, the estimated ceiling of the final delivery settlement price of the October contract is likely to be around 1100 points; otherwise, it may be close to 1000 points [4]. - For the December contract, the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. As the freight rate bottom becomes clearer, long positions can be gradually allocated to trade the expected price increases by shipping companies in November and December. However, due to the current large premium of the December contract futures price over the spot price, investors should take long positions in the December contract with a light position [6]. - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping alliances and companies have different price trends. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes decreased from WEEK39 to WEEK41; HPL - SPOT tried to raise the price in the second half of October. In the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC and ONE's prices remained stable in the first half of October compared to the second half of September, and YML's price decreased [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israel launched a large - scale ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza City, with nearly 400,000 people having left so far [2]. - **Capacity and Empty Sailing**: In October, the monthly average weekly capacity to European base ports from China was 272,600 TEU, with 15 empty sailings and 1 TBN. In November, the monthly average weekly capacity was 283,000 TEU, with 4 empty sailings and 6 TBN. HMM announced a winter suspension plan for the PA alliance on the Asia - Europe route [3]. 3.2 Contract Analysis - **October Contract**: It is mainly short - allocated during the off - season. The freight rate center in the first half of October continued to decline to around $1400/FEU (equivalent to about 1000 points on the SCFIS). The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The uncertainty lies in HPL's attempt to raise the price in the second half of October [4]. - **December Contract**: The pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. With the approach of Western holidays in the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high. However, the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of transferring US - bound ships to European routes. The current futures price of the December contract has a large premium over the spot price, so long positions should be taken lightly [6]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 18, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 84,867.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 31,831.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., were provided [7]. - **Spot Market**: The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and the SCFIS prices for European and US West routes were given as of relevant dates. The current spot price center is around $1400/FEU [4][6][7]. 3.4 Strategy and Risk - **Strategy**: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, short the October contract when the price is high [8]. - **Risk**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and US economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected vessel deliveries, insufficient vessel idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include an economic recovery in Europe and the US, supply chain disruptions, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to route detours [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Neutral for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] - Polysilicon: Short - term range operation for unilateral trading, no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have little change, with a slight increase in inventory. The recent rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly due to capital behavior and news, and there is still pressure above. If there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3] - Polysilicon's supply - demand fundamentals are average. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [5][7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The 2511 main contract opened at 8,920 yuan/ton and closed at 8,905 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 285,052 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,871 lots, down 25 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in many regions were stable, and the price of 97 silicon was also stable. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on September 18 was 543,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from last week [1] - **Demand Side**: The price of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, but price increases were restricted. The domestic DMC market price will remain stable in the short term [2] Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 18, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 53,200 yuan/ton and closed at 53,205 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day. The position was 122,834 lots (126,234 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 198,758 lots [4][5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.20 - 55.00 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 219,000 tons (up 3.79% month - on - month), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.87GW (up 1.93% month - on - month). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (up 3.31% month - on - month), and the silicon wafer output was 13.92GW (up 0.29% month - on - month) [5] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable, with only a slight decline in the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers [5][6] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [3][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The late Fuji bag - removing is generally postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be scarce. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels [2][3] - Red dates: The market is debating the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still high inventory pressure. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 8281 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged; the price of 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose slightly. The late Fuji bag - removing is postponed, and the high - quality fruit supply may be short. The inventory apple sales have slowed down. The short - term price is expected to be stable with low inventory support [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. With low inventory, the price has bottom support. The high price of new - season high - quality apples affects the inventory apple sales, and the short - term price is expected to be stable [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red dates 2601 contract was 10620 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (-1.80%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged [4] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price fell. The market is arguing about the new - season reduction and inventory. The double - festival stocking is less than expected. The new - season production is expected to decrease, but the high inventory pressure persists. The price trend depends on the final production and stocking demand [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The futures price may rise due to capital sentiment when the production reduction cannot be falsified. However, if the reduction is less than expected, the price may turn weak under high - inventory pressure [8]