Workflow
Jian Xin Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:51
1. Report Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The spot price of eggs continued to fall over the weekend. The adjustment in the peak season this year was greater than expected. The short - term market downturn may continue, squeezing the premium of futures. Although there will be at least one wave of price increases in August according to historical patterns, the expected target is lowered to 3.6 - 3.8 yuan. It is not recommended to buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. The fourth - quarter contracts are currently at a historically low valuation, but it is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing, and it is advisable to conduct band operations [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3394, the opening price was 3359, the highest price was 3372, the lowest price was 3323, the closing price was 3330, down 64 or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 253,161 and an open interest of 227,835, a decrease of 4144. - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3258, the opening price was 3245, the highest price was 3266, the lowest price was 3242, the closing price was 3252, down 6 or 0.18%, with a trading volume of 94,484 and an open interest of 194,539, a decrease of 879. - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3335, the opening price was 3323, the highest price was 3352, the lowest price was 3318, the closing price was 3349, up 14 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 30,860 and an open interest of 91,845, an increase of 3208. - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.25 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not buy the dip in the 09 contract in the short term. For the fourth - quarter contracts, it is advisable to conduct band operations and pay attention to the rhythm and entry timing [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9]. - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. This was the first year - on - year decrease in the monthly replenishment volume this year [9]. - From the first to the third week of July 31, the national chicken culling volumes were 13.01 million, 13.38 million, and 15.05 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, and the decline rate is higher than the seasonal average. As of July 31, the average age of culled chickens was 507 days, one day later than the previous week and one day earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg chicken farming profits, egg 08 contract basis, egg 08 - 09 spread, average price of eggs in the main producing areas, and egg 09 seasonal trends, with data sources including Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and others [16][14][11]
建信期货油脂日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:46
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **P2509**: Previous settlement price 8814, opening price 8808, closing price 9064, up 250 (2.84%), trading volume 580261, open interest 400643, open interest change +50247 [7] - **P2601**: Previous settlement price 8830, opening price 8810, closing price 9044, up 214 (2.42%), trading volume 188349, open interest 224873, open interest change +16881 [7] - **Y2509**: Previous settlement price 8246, opening price 8226, closing price 8344, up 98 (1.19%), trading volume 303060, open interest 469009 [7] - **Y2601**: Previous settlement price 8204, opening price 8194, closing price 8320, up 116 (1.41%), trading volume 217779, open interest 500881, open interest change +32194 [7] - **O1509**: Previous settlement price 9490, opening price 9522, closing price 9615, up 175 (1.32%), trading volume 204310, open interest 188408, open interest change +6762 [7] - **OI601**: Previous settlement price 9429, opening price 9458, closing price 9547, up 118 (1.25%), trading volume 77547, open interest 144896, open interest change +11141 [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil prices are under pressure due to increased production and weak demand, but there are rumors of a significant decline in Indonesia's June production. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply but fewer far - month purchases. Soybean oil inventory may increase in the short term but is optimistic in the long term due to biodiesel policies. The spot basis of the three major oils has limited room for significant downward adjustment in the later period. It is advisable to buy far - month basis appropriately. The three major oils may adjust in the short term, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, buy on dips [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports in July were 896362 tons, a 25.0% decrease from June. Exports to China were 75000 tons, down from 168000 tons in June [9] - Malaysian palm oil production in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, with FFB yield up 7.19% and OER down 0.02% month - on - month [9] - Estimates suggest that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a 19 - month high, with Reuters estimating production at 1.828 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.25 million tons; Bloomberg estimating production at 1.83 million tons, exports at 1.3 million tons, and inventory at 2.23 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including those on the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, price spreads of palm oil futures contracts, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit and the Chinese yuan [11][19][26][30]
建信期货工业硅日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:44
Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]
建信期货MEG日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:43
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: August 06, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak overall, and with the weakening of macro - positive support, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to continue its weak trend in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2509 was 4399 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the closing price of EG2601 was 4426 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract EG2509 was 104,974 lots, and the open interest was 224,036 lots, a decrease of 8500 lots. The open interest of EG2601 was 45,563 lots, an increase of 5251 lots [7] 2. Industry News - Oil Price: OPEC and its eight - nation production - limiting alliance agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4475 - 4477 yuan/ton, up 18.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The basis of this week's spot was at a premium of 76 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - Industry Start - up: PX and ethylene glycol started stably. Affected by the full - load operation of the Ningbo PTA plant, the PTA start - up rate increased by 1.23 percentage points. Affected by the restart of the polyester staple fiber plant, the polyester start - up rate increased by 0.94 percentage points [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, etc. The data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [10][15][16]
建信期货棉花日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:43
Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]
建信期货PTA日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:41
Group 1: Report Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated August 6, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as Li Jie for crude oil and fuel, Ren Junchi for PTA and MEG, etc [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - On August 5, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.72%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 12,105 lots. Due to weak cost support, sufficient PTA supply, and low downstream factory procurement intentions for spot goods, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 4: Industry News - OPEC and its eight allied countries agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [7] - The PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $838 - 840 per ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The PX price in the South Korean market was estimated at $818 - 820 per ton, also stable. The cost support for PX has strengthened slightly, and its supply - demand structure is relatively stable [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures 2509 contract, down 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including those related to international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:41
Report Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Market Performance - Multiple contracts of polysilicon declined significantly. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,330 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.88%. The trading volume was 433,130 lots, and the open interest was 127,587 lots, a net increase of 20,838 lots [4] Future Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices. It has ended its previous adjustment and returned to range - bound trading. The price increase in the photovoltaic industry has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, polysilicon production is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the pressure of a sharp decline in terminal demand has gradually spread upstream, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand relationship remains loose. Currently, the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy implementation has cooled market sentiment. Prices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with 47,000 yuan as a short - term support level [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline. On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025. According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic components, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic components was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]
建信期货原油日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:40
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI dropped 1.62% to $66.24, Brent fell 1.42% to $68.68, and SC decreased 1.55% to 508.8 yuan/barrel. Trading volumes were 25.39 million hands for WTI, 30.84 million hands for Brent, and 10.72 million hands for SC [6] - Market Drivers: India will continue importing Russian oil, OPEC+ will increase production by 550,000 barrels per day, and the revised US non - farm payroll data triggered recession fears [6] - Fundamental Analysis: OPEC+ and US production growth is limited, demand in the peak season is slightly below expectations, and the fundamentals are neutral. In the medium term, demand will enter the off - season [7] - Trading Strategy: Consider shorting after a rebound due to negative macro sentiment [7] Group 3: Industry News - Demand Forecast: Saudi Aramco CEO expects oil demand to grow by 1.1 - 1.3 million barrels per day this year, approaching the upper end of the range, and reach 105.8 million barrels per day [8] - OPEC Production: OPEC production remained stable as Saudi's cuts offset UAE's increase [8] - Business Cooperation: Libya's National Oil Corporation signed a memorandum with ExxonMobil after a ten - year interruption [8]
建信期货贵金属日评-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:17
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The employment market deterioration in the US may prompt the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process ahead of schedule. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, with its volatility rising but the mid - line upward trend remaining good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold, while Trump's reforms and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price - to - earnings ratio also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [6]. Group 4: Content Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The significant deterioration of US non - farm employment in July and the large downward revision of the previous two months' data may lead the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler gives Trump the power to influence monetary policy. The US dollar index fell sharply, and London gold rebounded above $3350/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce and then rise again. This week, attention should be paid to China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. Mid - line Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's demand, the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $3120 - $3500/ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to participate in trading with a long - position mindset and medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The US Trade Representative said the tariffs may continue. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about reaching an agreement with China [18]. - US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, with a significant downward revision of 258,000 non - farm jobs in the previous two months. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September has increased. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [18]. - Trump fired a senior official of the Labor Department after the weak employment report and accused her of manipulating data without evidence. Fed Governor Kugler resigned unexpectedly, giving Trump an earlier opportunity to influence the Fed. Trump said Fed Chairman Powell may stay in office [19]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Eight member countries will meet again on September 7 to consider whether to lift another approximately 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts [19]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 02:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures rebounded significantly after hitting lows, with coking coal showing a larger increase. The spot market of double - coking is lagging behind the futures market, resulting in a significant difference in the trend between the two. Considering the tight supply in the double - coking spot market driven by supply - demand relationship, there is still room for price increase. It is possible that the phased decline of double - coking futures has ended, and then it may turn into a volatile trend, waiting for further development of the supply - demand relationship after the spot market price increase to determine the direction [5][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On August 4, the main contract J2509 of coke futures had a previous closing price of 1585 yuan/ton, an opening price of 1585.5 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1626 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1551.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1615 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451 lots, the open interest was 25,782 lots, a decrease of 2,331 lots, and the capital outflow was 0.58 billion yuan. The main contract JM2601 of coking coal futures had a previous closing price of 1092.5 yuan/ton, an opening price of 1099.5 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1143 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1066.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1141 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758 lots, the open interest was 487,977 lots, an increase of 59,997 lots, and the capital inflow was 10.71 billion yuan [5]. - **Spot Market**: On August 4, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. In Tangshan, it was 1350 yuan/ton, also with no change. For low - sulfur main coking coal, the price in Tangshan increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1485 yuan/ton, in Linfen it remained unchanged at 1500 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. - **Technical Indicators**: On August 4, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning up slightly, while the K - value and D - value continued to decline. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to decline. The daily MACD indicator of the coke 2509 contract had a dead - cross the previous day and the green bar enlarged; the daily MACD indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract had a dead - cross [8]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **Policy**: The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to ensure coal production and supply, and conduct production inspections to prevent over - capacity production [10]. - **Fundamentals**: For coke, the output of independent coking plants decreased slightly after two consecutive weeks of increase, and the output of steel mills reached a new low since late February. The port coke inventory reached a new high since early June, while the inventories of steel mills and coking plants reached new lows since late December last year. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 11 consecutive weeks, and the fifth round of spot price increase for coke was proposed on August 3. For coking coal, from January to June, the import volume of coking coal in China still showed a large year - on - year decline of 7.4%. The inventories of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants have dropped significantly in the past 7 weeks, with declines of 17.6% and 33.8% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has increased for 6 consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early February, the port inventory reached a new low since early August last year, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 3 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase of steel mill inventory, the replenishment of coking plants has significantly cooled down [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission has completed the allocation of the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in this year, and will allocate the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in October to complete the annual allocation plan of 300 billion yuan. The 800 billion yuan list of "two major" construction projects and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. The NDRC will promote project construction and strengthen supervision [12]. - From July 19 - 25, the average coal price in Inner Mongolia was 730.96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. Domestic coal production capacity is continuously released, and overseas coal imports have increased significantly year - on - year [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Shaanxi Coal Industry Group achieved an operating income of 227.5 billion yuan and a profit of 18.04 billion yuan, with coal production reaching 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and power generation reaching 27.27 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [14]. - Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd. has transferred its coal production capacity replacement indicators to Shenmu Shengfu Mining Co., Ltd. for a total transaction price of 1.01132 billion yuan [14]. - The "Xinjiang Coal to Jiangsu" railway direct - access channel of Xinjiang Energy Group has been successfully connected. The comprehensive shipping cost has decreased by 20% compared with the beginning of the year, and it aims to achieve an annual sales volume of 3 million tons in the East China region this year [14]. - In July, the single - month power sales of State Grid Shandong Electric Power exceeded 62.12 billion kWh for the first time, a year - on - year increase of 20.19% [15]. - As of July 30, Gansu has signed new inter - provincial power transmission agreements with 9 provinces and cities this year, and the cross - provincial and cross - regional power transmission transaction volume has reached 61.742 billion kWh, of which new energy accounts for 57.57%, a year - on - year increase of 27.18% [15]. - In July, the coal production of Coal India Limited was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.72%, and the sales volume was 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.09% [16].