Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a view that the nickel and stainless steel markets will remain volatile with limited downside potential, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [1]. 2. Core View The nickel market shows a continuous volatile trend with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.39% and a historical percentile of 0.5% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Nickel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The nickel market is volatile with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, there is an increased expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, and stainless steel has been de - stocking for several weeks [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Pure nickel inventories are high, nickel ore seasonal inventories are rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs have increased, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates [7]. 3.5 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous is 120,620 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 87,538 lots, an increase of 12,532 lots or 16.71% month - on - month; the open interest is 81,691 lots, an increase of 79 lots or 0.10% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 tons, a decrease of 193 tons or 0.87% month - on - month [8]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous is 12,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 112,848 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots or 2.26% month - on - month; the open interest is 128,344 lots, an increase of 5,176 lots or 4.20% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 97,554 tons, a decrease of 734 tons or 0.75% month - on - month [9]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventories are 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons; LME nickel inventories are 223,152 tons, an increase of 2,058 tons; stainless - steel social inventories are 918,700 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; nickel pig iron inventories are 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10].

俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 | 2025-09-11 | 基差（点） | 日涨跌（点） | 周涨跌（点） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 362.66 | 63.60 | -110.24 | | EC2512 | -42.64 | 64.90 | -140.24 | | EC2602 | 69.06 | 26.60 | -185.84 | | EC2604 | 324.46 | 4.00 | -201.34 | | EC2606 | 135.86 | 13.30 | -194.74 | | EC2608 | -28.54 | 5.00 | -194.74 | source： 同花顺iFinD、南华研究 EC价格及价差 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, due to the continuous improvement in commodity shipping volume, the demand for mainstream ship types has significantly increased, especially for Capesize and Panamax vessels. This has led to a substantial week - on - week increase in the BCI and BPI freight rate indices, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to rise by over 8%. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products has increased significantly, benefiting all dry - bulk carriers. [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with September 3 data, the week - on - week increase in the freight rate indices of mainstream ship types was significant. The BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2112 points, up 8.87% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index was at 3071 points, up 10.75% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index was at 1975 points, up 14.89% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index was at 1478 points, up 0.75% week - on - week; and the BHSI freight rate index was at 798 points, up 1.27% week - on - week. [4] - The BDI composite freight rate index increased by 4.30% month - on - month and 105.25% compared to the beginning of the year; the BCI index decreased by 6.37% month - on - month but increased by 143.54% compared to the beginning of the year; the BPI index increased by 23.90% month - on - month and 97.5% compared to the beginning of the year; the BSI index increased by 10.63% month - on - month and 64.40% compared to the beginning of the year; the BHSI index increased by 15.65% month - on - month and 44% compared to the beginning of the year. [5][7] 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On September 10, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all increased. Among them, the rental freight of Panamax vessels in the FDI rental freight index had the largest month - on - month increase. - The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1366.34 points, up 1.11% month - on - month; the FDI rental index was at 1686.96 points, up 1.3% month - on - month. The Capesize vessel rental index was at 1822.95 points, up 1.77% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index was at 1546.77 points, up 2.03% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index was at 1645.83 points, down 0.03% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index was at 1152.59 points, up month - on - month. [8] 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On September 11, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 58 vessels, Russia 8 vessels, Argentina 18 vessels, Uruguay 0 vessels, and Australia 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 vessels, Guinea 37 vessels, Indonesia 47 vessels, Russia 15 vessels, South Africa 19 vessels, Brazil 13 vessels, and the United States 8 vessels. [15][16] 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 22 vessels were used for corn shipping, 21 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 20 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 104 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 23 for other dry goods. - For agricultural product shipping, the most required were Post - Panamax vessels (42), followed by Handymax vessels (22), and then Handysize vessels (27). For industrial product shipping, the most required were Capesize vessels (92), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (72), and then Handymax vessels (60). [17] 4. Main Port Vessel Quantity Tracking - In mid - September, the number of vessels docked at Chinese ports continued to increase. The data showed that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 22 week - on - week, while the number at Australian ports decreased by 2, and the number at Indonesian ports increased by 1. The number of vessels at Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged. [18] 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 10, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4033.52 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28045/day, and the latest quote for iron ore CIF price was $123.95/kiloton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14227/day, and the latest quote for steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 790.4 points. On September 12, the 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114/cubic meter. [22]

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年09月11日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：76000 | 40.7% | 67.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 采购管理 | 产品价格无相关性：未来有 未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据 | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 20% | 67000-70000 | | | 生产电池材料的计划，担心 | 生产计划需买入对应生产计 | | | | | | | | 划的期货合约锁定采购成 ...

股指期货日报 2025年9月11日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 结构性拉动下，警惕"一时热情" 今日股市明显放量上涨，两市成交额重回2.4万亿上方水平，以沪深300为代表，收盘价创今年新高，股市各 行业指数普涨。信息面，昨日晚间公布美国PPI数据，整体低于市场预期，但是观察美国金融市场表现，并未 给予过多定价，美元指数仅小幅回落后反弹，市场或在等待今日晚间美国CPI数据进一步公布，所以对于今日 股市起到的乐观拉动不大。今日上行预计主要受甲骨文带来的行业拉动效应，A股数日调整后，资金再度入场 推升股市全面上行。结构性行情下，关注市场热情延续性，主要跟踪量能变化情况，警惕急涨急跌。 策略推荐 观望为主 股指日报期指市场观察 市场回顾 今日股指大幅上涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨2.31%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨4595.96亿元。 期指方面，各品种均放量上行。 重要资讯 1、国务院同意自即日起2年内开展10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点。 2、OpenAI已签署一项协议，将在大约五年内向甲骨文购买价值3000亿美元的算力，甲骨文隔夜大涨近 36 ...

南华金属日报：关注晚间美CPI对降息预期影响 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月11日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场高位震荡，目前投资者等待今晚美8月CPI数据指引9月中旬降息幅度。8月底来贵金属的强势 主要受美联储宽松预期增强以及长端美债收益率大幅下滑影响。目前市场焦点在美联储降息预期、美联储人 事调整和独立性问题以及债市风险上。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3680.4美元/盎司，-0.05%；美白银 2512合约收报于41.65美元/盎司，+0.75%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约收833.42元/克，+0.21%；SHFE白银 2510合约收9796元/千克，-0.72%。数据方面，周三晚公布的美8月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.1%，而7月的数据被下修，PPI同比上涨2.6%，该数据支持9月降息预期，且未浇灭9月降息50BP可能性。 事件方面，美联储理事库克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 贵金属期现价格表 | | 单位 | 最新价 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Affected by the significantly lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, the gold price rose sharply and the Shanghai copper price dropped significantly on the night of last Friday, indicating a significant decline in investors' risk preference and demand expectations. On Wednesday night, affected by the low PPI data, investors continued to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, multiple research institutions predict that China's refined copper production this month will decline by 4%-5% month-on-month, the first decline in September since 2016. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to decline by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% month-on-month, further amplifying the effect of supply contraction. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rods increased by 1.66 percentage points to 69.78% month-on-month. Affected by Document No. 770, the operating situation of recycled copper rods is still unclear. In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The impact of the weak US employment data on copper prices may continue, and in the short term, copper prices may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non-farm payroll data does not ferment further, combined with the expected month-on-month increase in the operating rate of copper rods and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20-day moving average and still have the potential to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton [4]. Key Points Summary by Section Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - **Copper Price Volatility**: The latest copper price is 79,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long spot positions, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, for short spot positions, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,790 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract rose 140 yuan to 79,790 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.18%. The Shanghai copper continuous three contract was unchanged at 79,740 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M contract rose 95.5 US dollars to 10,012 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.96%. The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.11, a decrease of 0.02 or -0.25% [8]. - **Spot Data**: - The prices of Shanghai Non-ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non-ferrous decreased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.14% respectively. The Shanghai Non-ferrous and Shanghai Wumao spot premiums decreased by 33.33% and 37.5% respectively [14]. Copper Market Supply and Demand Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies. - The increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non-ferrous metals. - The lower support level rises [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Tariff policies fluctuate. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to extremely high COMEX inventories [7]. Copper Inventory Data - **Domestic Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a daily increase of 0.24%. The international copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,418 tons [20]. - **LME Inventories**: The total LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a daily decrease of 0.14%. The European inventories remained unchanged, while the Asian inventories decreased by 225 tons [22]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The total COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,244 tons to 308,706 tons, a weekly increase of 2.4% [23].

金融期货早评 宏观：核心 CPI 增幅回升 【市场资讯】1）发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内 需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。2）财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循 环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力支持稳 就业稳外贸。3）中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%，PPI 同比降幅收 窄至 2.9%。4）美国通胀意外下跌，8 月 PPI 环比-0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同比增速 2.6% 低于预期。PPI 公布后，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。5）美联储理事库 克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。米兰出任美 联储理事的提名获得参议院委员会投票通过。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国新办就《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发 展的意见》相关政策措施展开解读。我们判断，此举或标志着促进服务消费系列政策的启 动，后续预计将有更多政策逐步落地，需重点跟踪相关举措的实施进展。此类服务消费刺 激政策，将与"以旧换新"等商品消费提振措施形成协同效应，共同支撑社 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the self - driving force of PE is still weak. It is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the slow recovery of downstream demand limits the upward push on PE. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, waiting for a significant demand recovery signal on the spot side to drive PE up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7150 - 7400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.8% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short plastic futures (L2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 7300 - 7350 yuan/ton and sell call options (L2601C7400) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. - For procurement management with low standing inventory, it is recommended to buy plastic futures (L2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell put options (L2601P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 70 - 100 [2]. Core Contradiction - Although PE supply is expected to decrease in September due to high - volume device maintenance and demand is expected to increase as downstream moves from the off - season to the peak season, the slow recovery of demand and weak base - strengthening trend limit the upward push on PE [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Liduo Factors**: Demand is expected to improve month - on - month; the commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new device is expected to be postponed; there are still many device overhauls in September, leading to a de - stocking pattern in the balance sheet [4]. - **Likong Factors**: The current demand recovery speed is slow; the current LLDPE inventory is at a high level [5]. Daily Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Plastic main base - spread was - 16 yuan/ton on September 10, 2025, with a daily change of 3 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 14 yuan/ton. L01, L05, and L09 contracts had different price changes [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Prices in North China, East China, and South China showed different trends, and regional spreads also changed [8]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between different HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, had different changes [8]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Brent crude oil price, US ethane price, coal price, and methanol price had different trends, and processing profits of different PE production methods also changed [8].

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7800-8400 | 10.5% | 37.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 | 情况，做空苹果期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | AP2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 8300-8 400 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若苹果价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | AP2511C8400 | 卖出 | 50% | 30-40 | | 采购 管理 | 担心旧作苹果库存下 | | 为 ...