Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core framework for interest rate bond pricing remains the attitude of monetary policy, market expectations (liquidity), and fundamental expectations [2][92]. - The market has a highly consistent confidence and expectation in re - inflation, but the specific height of recovery depends on the improvement of demand [2][92]. - Next year, external demand is unlikely to continue to provide "above - expected" growth, and the actual growth rate will offset the contribution of re - inflation to the nominal growth rate to some extent [2][92]. - The bond market is facing two major risks: marginal improvement in inflation and supply - demand mismatch at the ultra - long end. The supply - demand mismatch of ultra - long - term government bonds will become more obvious [2][92]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, and the central bank's increase in tools such as bond - buying may bring phased market opportunities [2][92]. - Next year, interest rates will generally continue the low - level shock market, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate between 1.7% - 2% [3][93]. - It is recommended to increase timing and attention to market data to play for band trading opportunities. Before the cycle indicator indicates that the interest rate will break away from the low level, each approach to the upper limit of the range will be a suitable allocation opportunity [3][93]. - In terms of arbitrage strategies, considering the inevitable rise of inflation and the necessity of maintaining monetary easing under the current fundamentals, steepening the 30 - 2 yield curve is the most certain choice [3][93]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Priced by Marginal Increment - **Spring Festival - end of March**: There was a resonance between tightened funds and risk appetite, and policy expectations were significantly revised [6]. - **Second Quarter**: Geopolitical disturbances led to the early implementation of easing policies [6]. - **Third Quarter**: Market sentiment reversed [6]. - **End of October - End of the Year**: The restart of bond - buying triggered new policy games [6]. 2. Interest Rate Decomposition: Correctly View "Re - inflation" - **Price Trend Improvement**: CPI and PPI showed certain trends of improvement, with PPI having a more obvious bottom - up trend [26]. - **Consistent Direction, Diverse Optimism Levels** - Do not over - estimate the effectiveness of anti - involution policies [6]. - The rise in commodity prices is structurally obvious, with price increases concentrated in some industries [6]. - Demand determines the height of the rebound. The recovery height of CPI and PPI depends on demand improvement, with CPI expected to be between 0 - 1% and PPI between - 1% - 1% [6][40]. 3. Interest Rate Decomposition: The Elasticity of Real Interest Rates Still Lies in Domestic Demand - **Economic Growth: Expected Difference Abroad, Elasticity at Home**: In 2025, GDP showed certain growth characteristics, and the expected difference in economic growth mainly comes from external factors, while the elasticity lies in domestic demand [46]. - **Exports: Maintaining Stability, Difficult to Have Expected Differences** - Geopolitical visibility has increased, and the global cycle is improving, but external demand is unlikely to exceed expectations [54]. - The proportion of exports is at a historical high, and the export situation of some countries such as South Korea shows a downward trend in the central level [54][61]. - **Domestic Demand: Policy Support, Emphasizing Both Quantity and Structure** - **Policy Emphasizes Quantity and Quality, "Price" over "Quantity"**: The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year emphasized high - quality development and structural adjustment. In the context of continuing the dual - loose monetary and fiscal policies, the increase in policy intensity in 2026 is likely to be weaker than in 2025 [69][70]. - **Still Facing Downward Pressure in the Short Term**: Domestic demand, especially consumption and investment, still faces certain downward pressure, and the non - government sector's financing is continuously sluggish and the leverage ratio is still high [72][75]. 4. How to Understand Monetary Policy? - **Supportive Policy Stance Remains Consistent**: Although the use of traditional aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has converged this year, the improvement of the policy tool system has reduced the necessity of continuous use of aggregate policies, and the overall capital cost is low. As long as there is pressure on the demand side, there is no need to doubt the central bank's policy stance [79]. - **The Necessity of Interest Rate Cuts is Decreasing, but the "Threshold" to Become a Market Catalyst is also Decreasing**: There are concerns that the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds will be too large next year. Bond - buying by the central bank corresponds to the release of long - term liquidity, and if the central bank extends the bond - buying period, it means further improvement in the expectation of monetary easing [91]. 5. Summary and Outlook - Re - emphasize the core framework for interest rate bond pricing, the situation of re - inflation and external demand, and the risks faced by the bond market [92]. - Forecast the trend of interest rates next year, and give suggestions on trading and arbitrage strategies [93].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, which leads to the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The 01 contract of domestic sugar is unlikely to have a large - scale rebound and may transition smoothly with the spot price; the 05 contract may face greater pressure and has the possibility of falling to a very low price [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to have limited rebound height in the near - term, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Domestic Contracts**: The 01 contract's pricing and the 05 contract's trend are key issues. The 01 contract is less likely to rebound significantly and may align with the spot price. The 05 contract has the greatest pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future and may fall to a low price [1]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price has fallen sharply, and it is difficult for it to firmly stand above 15 cents. The near - term rebound is limited, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Situation**: The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing. Although the long - term structure is bearish, there is a short - term need for price to rebound and return to the 10 - day moving average [10]. - **Strategy Review**: Unilateral long position on SR2511 has been stopped out. There are also some basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 7.29% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [13]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, enterprises with high finished - product inventory can short Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low procurement inventory can long Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to November increased. The imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased. In the second half of November, Brazil's sugar production decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the export volume in the first two weeks of December increased [14]. - **Negative Information**: In November 2025, China's dairy product production decreased year - on - year, and the number of sugar mills in Guangxi that started production decreased. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor the weekly quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's sugar export data for November (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar pressing progress [17][20]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar price fell by 2.42% this week. The position of the SR2605 contract increased seasonally and reached a historical high. The market shows a bearish technical pattern. The basis of the 01 contract is expected to repair to near - par, and the market presents a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread expanding [19][22]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price fell by 1.66% last week. Although it rebounded on Friday, it still closed below 15 cents. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position. The market shows a back structure, and there is pressure from hedging positions above 15.2 cents [24][26]. - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to weak domestic and strong international [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is very rich. The imports of syrup and premixed powder are relatively stable [32]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1156 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and the current situation [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. In the future, the driving logic of lithium carbonate futures prices will focus on factors such as the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. In the medium - to - long - term, the long - term value supported by the industry fundamentals remains unchanged. There are opportunities for long - position building on dips. It is recommended that investors focus on structural long - position opportunities after price corrections, anchor a reasonable valuation range based on fundamentals for batch layout, and avoid short - term volatility risks caused by blind chasing of highs [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range and strong - side oscillatory trend this week. The future price of lithium carbonate futures is driven by factors including the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo, the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises, and the production schedule of downstream in Q1. The domestic available lithium concentrate inventory is still tight. The resumption progress of Jianxiawo is a key variable. If it exceeds market expectations, it will increase lithium salt supply and suppress prices. The demand side is strong, with overall market inventory continuously decreasing, especially significant drops in downstream inventory. In December, the production schedules of downstream cathode materials and power cells increased slightly month - on - month, and market demand remained strong. However, downstream enterprises' willingness to purchase high - priced lithium carbonate decreased during the price increase period, mainly consuming their own inventory. If subsequent rigid - demand restocking needs are gradually released, the spot basis is expected to strengthen. Technically, there is significant correction pressure [1]. - Near - end trading logic (before the end of 2025): includes the tightness of domestic lithium ore inventory, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo lithium ore, and the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises. Distant - end trading logic (after January 1, 2026): not elaborated in detail in this part [7][8]. 1.2 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Lithium carbonate futures price range**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 85,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 45.9% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 78.0% [9]. - **Risk - management strategy recommendations for lithium - battery enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for procurement management, sales management, and inventory management under different scenarios, including using futures contracts and option combination strategies, with corresponding recommended hedging ratios [9]. Chapter 2: Market Information - This week's main information includes: on December 15, the 2.4 million - ton/year mining construction project of Inner Mongolia Weilasituo Mining Co., Ltd.'s lithium - tin polymetallic ore was officially approved; on December 17, LG Energy Solution terminated a long - term battery supply contract with Ford Motor Company worth about 45.7 billion yuan; on December 18, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the EU are conducting consultations on the electric vehicle case; on December 19, the environmental impact assessment information of the Jianxiawo lithium ore mining project in Yichun was publicly announced [10]. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 111,307 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.28%; the trading volume was about 1.2015 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 28.70%; the open interest was about 1.052 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million lots. The LC2605 - LC2609 monthly spread showed a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 720 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts was 15,511 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 461 lots. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price is in a strong - side operation, and in the long - term, it is still in an upward trend [11][12]. - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of lithium carbonate futures showed an oscillatory correction trend in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation is still at a high level. The implied volatility of at - the - money options showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, indicating that market participants expect future price fluctuations to be large. The PCR of option open interest showed an upward trend, indicating increasing bearish sentiment in the market [15][16]. - **Capital movement**: The long - position scale showed an upward trend this week [18]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The current lithium carbonate futures contract distribution still shows an overall contango structure. The resumption of production in Ningde suppresses the near - term price, and the traditional off - season in Q1 and the maintenance of material factories are expected to weaken market demand and affect the near - term price. The long - term positive logic supports the far - term price, including the growth of the domestic energy - storage industry and the increase in the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles. In the medium - to - long - term, the support for far - term contracts will be stronger than that for near - term contracts, and the contango structure is likely to deepen [20]. - **CME lithium - spodumene and lithium - hydroxide futures**: Data on CME lithium - hydroxide futures are provided, showing price changes in different months [32]. - **LME lithium - hydroxide futures**: No specific content is provided. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated widely this week. Currently, the basis is at an extremely low level, and going long on the basis can be considered [37]. - **Spot price data**: The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends. For example, the prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and electrolytes all had certain increases or decreases [39]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry - Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Recently, the demand for lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary batteries has been strong, driving up the prosperity of the entire lithium - battery industry chain. The production start - up rates of upstream lithium - salt enterprises and downstream cathode - material enterprises are at high levels, and the profits of each link have improved marginally. However, the profit of lithium - carbonate production lines using externally purchased lithium ore has weakened marginally, as well as that of lithium - hydroxide production lines, mainly due to the shortage of available lithium - ore inventory and the higher increase in ore prices than in lithium - carbonate prices. Among cathode materials, the profit of lithium - iron - phosphate has a marginal strengthening trend, the profit of ternary materials has turned positive, and the profits of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium are in an oscillatory range but still positive. The profit of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased significantly [40]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit - This week, the import profit of lithium carbonate showed a marginal upward trend due to market shipping - schedule time locks. The export profit of lithium hydroxide showed a marginal weakening trend [47]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - **Domestic mine output**: The report provides seasonal production data of sample pyroxene mines and lithium - mica mines in China [51]. - **Overseas mine imports**: Data on the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium - spodumene from different countries are provided [53]. - **Lithium ore inventory**: The current available total inventory of lithium ore, the inventory of lithium - ore traders, and the inventory in domestic warehouses, as well as the port inventory, are presented. The available total inventory of lithium ore and the inventory of traders increased this week, while the inventory in warehouses decreased [54][55]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - **Lithium carbonate supply**: The total start - up rate of sample enterprises is 51.4%, with different start - up rates for lithium - spodumene, lithium - mica, salt - lake, and recycling production lines. The total production of sample enterprises is 22,045 tons, with different production volumes from different sources [57]. - **Lithium carbonate net export**: Seasonal data on lithium carbonate net export are provided [74]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 110,425 tons, with decreases in smelter and downstream inventories and an increase in other inventories. The inventory days also changed accordingly [75]. - **Lithium hydroxide supply**: Data on the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by different processes, including the total production, production at the smelting end, and production at the causticizing end, are provided [84]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Factory Supply - **Material factory output**: The weekly production data of battery - material factories, including the production and start - up rates of lithium - iron - phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, are provided. The production of lithium - iron - phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased, while that of ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium decreased [88]. - **Material factory inventory**: Seasonal inventory data of different materials in material factories are provided [101]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - **China's power - cell production**: The weekly production of power cells is 29.34 GWh, with decreases in both iron - lithium - type and ternary - type power - cell production [102]. - **China's lithium - battery installation volume**: Seasonal data on China's total lithium - battery installation volume and the installation volume of power lithium - batteries by vehicle type are provided [106]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - **New - energy vehicle production and sales**: Data on the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, including the production of Chinese new - energy vehicles, global sales by country, and the sales of new - energy passenger and commercial vehicles, are provided. The sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increased this week, and the penetration rate also increased slightly [108][109][111]. - **Automobile inventory**: Seasonal data on the inventory - warning index of domestic automobile dealers are provided [121]. 5.6 Energy Storage - Data on the total winning - bid power scale and capacity scale of energy - storage projects, as well as the seasonal data of the total winning - bid capacity scale, are provided [123].

南华期货LPG2026年年度展望 ——供给韧性延续，需求承压加深 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 2025年内盘LPG价格呈现宽幅震荡的格局，整体价格重心下降，价格波动加剧。展望26年，我们认为需要重 点关注以下几个方面： 1）供应端：预期明年整体供应依然有韧性。中东明年虽然暂时OPEC+增产放缓，但仍有多个气田相关项目 将投入运营，预期LPG供应仍有增长趋势；美国产量在疲软的原油价格影响下，预期增速放缓，但出口终端 仍持续扩张，对出口量形成正向驱动。 2）需求端：中印作为亚洲LPG需求的主要增长引擎，增速预期也将放缓。在中国，化工行业持续低迷的利润 水平抑制了相关需求；印度方面，民用领域的普及率已逐渐接近饱和，化工需求增长相对缓慢，同时其港口 基础设施仍存在一定限制。另外，韩国裂解产能的整合退出情况也需要持续关注。 综合来看，在供应保持韧性而主力需求增长放缓的背景下，2026年全球LPG市场可能继续呈现价格重心 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction this week lies in the impact of the US non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate on the probability of interest rate cuts, the supply-demand relationship in the copper market, and the confirmation of the tight supply of copper mines in 2026. Looking ahead to next week, macroeconomic data will affect market sentiment and copper prices. The strategy is to follow the trend if there is a breakthrough; otherwise, buy at low levels within the range [2][3]. - Cathode copper is currently in the mid - stage of an uptrend with a neutral cycle, while LME copper is in the late stage of an uptrend at a high cycle level, and there is a risk of a pullback. The risk - return ratios for going long on SHFE copper and LME copper are low, so caution is advised [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: The US non - farm payroll data and unemployment rate exceeded market expectations, slightly increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 26.6% (24.4% the previous week), and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.4%. By March 2026, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 46.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 11.5%. Next week, the release of macroeconomic data such as the US initial jobless claims and core PCE price index will affect market sentiment [2][3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: Near the end of the year, holders of copper have a stronger willingness to destock. In the context of increasing electrolytic copper production from November to December, the sellers' willingness to sell continues to rise, while downstream processing enterprises are still hesitant to buy at high prices, resulting in limited spot price increases. The LME copper cancelled warrants remain above 60,000 tons, supporting the rebound of the copper premium in China's bonded area. The export window is still open. The 2026 copper long - term TC/RC, announced over the weekend, is set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, confirming the tight supply of copper mines in that year [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper is in the mid - stage of an uptrend with a neutral cycle; LME copper is in the late stage of an uptrend at a high cycle level, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback. The risk - return ratio for going long on SHFE copper is 0.69% (low risk - return ratio), and for LME copper is 0.71% (low risk - return ratio), so caution is advised [3][14]. - **Price Range**: The price range for SHFE copper is [89,735, 95,178], with a price center of 92,457; for LME copper, it is [11,303, 12,145], with a price center of 11,724 [14]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Follow the trend if there is a breakthrough; otherwise, buy at low levels within the range [3]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategy**: The basis strategy is to expect it to strengthen. On December 19, the basis was - 565 yuan/ton, in the lowest 10% of historical quantiles, and the probability of an expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks is 82.3%. The calendar spread strategy is neutral, with the main fluctuation range of the spread between the first - and third - month contracts being [- 90, 260], and the current spread is - 40. The cross - border spread is within the normal range, and it is recommended to wait and see. The current SHFE - LME ratio is 7.89, at the 43.3% historical quantile (lower than last week) [14][16]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Suggestion - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, when the expected price has strong resistance at 95,000 yuan/ton and the lower limit is 90,000 yuan/ton, they can short the SHFE copper main contract at the resistance level, build positions at high prices, and stop losses if the price breaks through. They can also sell call options or buy put options but should wait and see for now. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, when the expected price has strong support at 90,000 yuan/ton, they can buy the main contract futures near the support level. They can also buy up - and - out cumulative options in the range of 90,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton [20]. 1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - The previous long futures hedging positions bought at low levels can continue to be held. Those who have not hedged may have missed the ideal hedging price. If they are in a hurry to purchase, they can consider the "sell put option + buy call option" combination to synthesize a long strategy [25]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 20, Chinese smelters and Antofagasta set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee Benchmark at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. From January to October 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 122,000 tons, less than the 261,000 - ton surplus in the same period last year. Global copper demand growth forecasts have been revised upward, with the 2025 growth rate expected to increase from 2.4% to 2.7%. China's demand expectation has been raised from 3.3% to 3.7%, and demand outside China has been raised from 1.0% to 1.2%. Institutions expect the 2026 market to remain slightly in surplus, with the surplus potentially expanding in 2027, and the market to return to a structural shortage by 2030 [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: In November 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 106,210 tons, a 7.87% increase from October, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 54.08%, a 3.95% increase from the previous month. The Chinese copper industry monthly prosperity index in November was 39.7, a 2 - point decrease from the previous month, and continued to operate in the "normal" range. The LME plans to implement new position limit regulations from July next year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 and cumulative cuts by March 2026 has been adjusted [30][31][32]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation Next week, many macroeconomic indicators will be released, including the UK GDP year - on - year, US PCE price index, initial jobless claims, etc., which will affect market sentiment on copper prices [34]. 3. Interpretation of Price, Volume, and Capital on the Disk 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation This week, the trading volume and open interest of the SHFE copper weighted index decreased significantly, and the market speculation degree dropped below the mid - line. The price of the SHFE copper main contract fluctuated around 92,579 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57% and an amplitude of 3.95%, and closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday [35][36]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation This week, the overseas copper futures performed better than the domestic market. The Comex copper price reached a one - month high on Friday night and then pulled back, while the LME copper price maintained an uptrend with a small amplitude. The LME copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [11,536.5, 11,928] dollars/ton, increased by 1.58% week - on - week, and closed at 11,870.5 dollars/ton. The Comex copper price mainly fluctuated in the range of [531.75, 556.55] cents/pound, increased by 1.41% week - on - week, and closed at 548.35 cents/pound. The LME copper term structure has gradually changed from contango to backwardation, and the positive spread between months has widened negatively. The open interest of the Comex copper active contract remains at a high level in the same period [35][38]. 4. Analysis of Spot Price and Profit 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit In the second half of this week, the electrolytic copper spot price strengthened, but the discount widened. The scrap copper market showed "higher prices but less volume", and the invoice situation in Guangdong and Jiangxi was tight, increasing the capital cost pressure on scrap copper enterprises. The purchasing and selling sentiment in the electrolytic copper spot market changed. The smelting income of refined copper increased week - on - week [42][43]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume This week, the copper import profit and scrap copper import profit increased significantly year - on - year, and domestic enterprises' willingness to import copper is expected to increase. The Yangshan copper premium in the bonded area has been rising, which will continue to support smelters' copper exports. It is expected that the copper inventory in the bonded area will remain balanced. It is estimated that China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates in December 2025, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% [45][46]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis This week, the "siphon effect" of the Comex copper inventory still exists. The domestic copper inventory increased year - on - year, and the LME copper inventory decreased year - on - year. The LME copper cancelled warrants remained above 60,000 tons but decreased compared to the previous week, while the LME copper registered inventory increased significantly. The total Comex copper inventory increased, and the registered inventory continued to rise, indicating that holders continued to sell on the disk [49]. 5. Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - **Global Perspective**: In 2025, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 19.871 million metal tons, with an actual copper rough - smelting output of 20.154 million metal tons, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is - 166,000 metal tons. In 2026, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 20.441 million metal tons, with an actual copper rough - smelting output of 20.664 million metal tons, and the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is - 331,000 metal tons [55]. - **Domestic Perspective**: In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a 1.05% month - on - month increase and a 9.75% year - on - year increase. The cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a 11.76% year - on - year increase. In December, it is expected that 4 smelters will be under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 million tons. It is estimated that the electrolytic copper production in December will be 1.1688 million tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 6.69% year - on - year increase [56][57]. 5.2 Demand Expectation In November, the domestic copper product output was 1.7879 million tons, slightly lower than expected, and the comprehensive copper product operating rate was 61.6%, a 3.8% month - on - month increase. Except for the recycled copper rod industry, the operating rates of other industries increased. In December, it is expected that the operating rates of most industries will continue to increase slightly. The expected copper product output, copper rod output, copper strip output, copper tube output, and copper rod output are likely to increase month - on - month, and the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper will also increase month - on - month [59][60][61]. 5.3 Price Expectation This Friday, the market sentiment was high, and the copper price increased significantly, especially in the Comex copper market, where the price reached a one - month high. The copper price can either rise or fall at the current level. From the perspective of the 2026 long - term TC/RC announced over the weekend, the confidence of funds to buy at low levels will be re - stimulated, and the probability of the copper price breaking through again will increase. If the breakthrough is less than expected and the market returns to a volatile situation, it is still advisable to buy at low levels within the range [65].

南华期货锌产业周报 ——进口窗口开启，区间震荡 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 宏观情绪回暖，但产业基本面呈现"外松内紧"的剧烈分化。 宏观层面，美国11月CPI低于预期 （2.7%）且美联储降息预期增强，叠加国内经济会议释放积极信号，为锌价提供了金融属性的底部支撑 。然 而，供需的核心矛盾在于全球库存周期的错配。LME库存因大幅交仓激增至10万吨级别，0-3月差迅速转为 Contango（C结构），直接证伪了海外供应短缺的逻辑 。反观国内，虽然消费端受北方环保预警抑制导致镀 锌开工下滑 ，但冶炼厂年末集中检修导致供应边际收缩，叠加进口矿实际流通量尚未完全释放，国内现货升 水持续走高 。结论：短期基本面处于"海外利空压顶，国内供应底支撑"的僵持阶段，单边驱动不足，更多 表现为比价修复。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 元/吨 沪锌期货主力合约收盘价 沪铜期货主力收盘价(右轴) 元/吨 15000 20000 25000 30000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market showed a bottom - up rebound last week, mainly due to the impact of the news about accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, as well as the continuous production cut under profit losses and cost support. The fundamentals of ferroalloy are characterized by weak supply and demand. The future production of ferroalloy is likely to decrease further, and the demand will decline as the molten iron production continues to decrease. The inventory of ferroalloy is at a high level. The upward space of ferroalloy prices is limited, but the downward space is also restricted by cost support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Positive factors**: The news of controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects from next year, continuous production cut under profit losses, cost support with some regions raising electricity prices, and the start of destocking of ferrosilicon enterprise inventory (with a week - on - week decrease of 16.28%) [2]. - **Negative factors**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises continued to increase (with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%), although the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly [2][5]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestions - **Trend judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The price range of the main contract 2603 of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 5800, and that of the main contract 2603 of silicomanganese is 5500 - 6000 [5]. - **Base - spread, month - spread and hedging arbitrage strategy suggestions**: All strategies suggest waiting and seeing [5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range forecast**: The monthly price range forecast of ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.49% and a historical percentile of 17.5% (3 - year). The monthly price range forecast of silicomanganese is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.99% and a historical percentile of 3.3% (3 - year) [5]. - **Hedging suggestions**: For inventory management, if the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 15% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5800 - 6000 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 6000 - 6200 to prevent inventory depreciation losses. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a hedging ratio of 25% when the price of ferrosilicon is in the range of 5200 - 5300 and that of silicomanganese is in the range of 5300 - 5400 to lock in procurement costs in advance [5]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Ferroalloy has maintained a production - cut trend recently, and the magnesium ingot output in November increased by 7.7% month - on - month, continuing the production - increase trend [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's one - year loan prime rate and November social electricity consumption. Next Wednesday: The number of initial jobless claims in the US. Next Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [13]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Price - volume and capital interpretation**: Analyzed the unilateral trends and capital movements of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as their price - volume relationships and historical data [11]. - **Base - spread and month - spread structure**: Considered factors such as the improvement of downstream steel profits, the control of high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects, the production cut of ferrosilicon inventory, the slowdown of silicomanganese inventory accumulation, the decline of steel mill profitability, and the decrease of molten iron production and its impact on ferroalloy demand [12]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The downstream demand is gradually weakening. Steel mills purchase on demand, and the profit of ferroalloy production enterprises is gradually in the red. Due to the decline of ferroalloy production profit and seasonal laws, the market has little expectation for the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and it is expected to maintain the production - cut trend [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between ferrosilicon export profit and export volume, and other related factors [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Supply side**: The downstream demand has entered the off - season. The previous continuous decline of ferroalloy production profit does not support the continued increase of ferroalloy production, and the possibility of production - cut drive by manufacturers is increasing. It is expected that the ferroalloy production will decline [63]. - **Demand side**: The molten iron production decreased last week due to the decline of steel mill profitability and seasonal laws, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of five major steel products needs to be reduced through production cut, so the demand for ferroalloy is expected to decline. The high inventory of ferroalloy itself also further suppresses the demand [63]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, with great inventory pressure. Inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cut [63]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese weekly production, and the relationship between production profit and production [66][67]. 3.5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese demand from five major steel products, and the relationship between demand and factors such as molten iron production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and steel product production profit [70][71]. 3.5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt quantity, and total inventory, and their seasonal characteristics [85][86].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Since the listing of propylene futures on July 22, the price of the main contract has shown an overall downward trend, affected by factors such as a loose fundamental situation, weakened cost support, and sluggish downstream demand [1][7]. - In 2026, it is necessary to focus on the production progress of the industrial chain, the PDH's phased adjustment of the supply - demand balance, the slow - down of PP growth but persistent pressure, and changes in the import - export pattern [1][2]. - The expected price range of propylene in 2026 is between 5,400 - 6,400 yuan/ton [3]. - Recommended strategies include unilateral interval operations and variety - based interval operations such as PP - PL and PL/PG (FEI/CP) [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - After the listing of propylene futures on July 22, the main contract price declined from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 5,715 yuan/ton, driven by factors such as a shift to a loose fundamental situation, weakened cost support, and sluggish downstream PP demand [7]. - There were also some phased disturbance factors during the decline, including the "anti - involution" policy expectation and unstable device operations [7][8]. - The propylene basis fluctuated between - 250 and 250 yuan/ton. The futures price was affected by fundamental over - supply pressure and the weakening of the PP end, while the spot price was more sensitive to device changes [10]. - The spot price difference between propylene and polypropylene (PP) fluctuated significantly, while the futures price difference had a relatively narrow range. The PP - PL spread showed different trends at different times due to factors such as device maintenance and new capacity addition [12]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points - **3.1 Production Growth Slowdown**: From 2019 - 2025, the cumulative new propylene production capacity was about 45.87 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 13%. As of now in 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity is about 9.93 million tons, a 14.24% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned new capacity is about 6 - 8 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.5% - 10%. The upstream - downstream integration trend is significant, and the actual supply - demand difference is also related to the start - up situation of upstream and downstream [14][16][18]. - **3.2 PDH's Phased Adjustment of Supply - Demand Balance**: PDH and refinery catalytic cracking devices have a greater impact on the propylene trading market. In 2025, the overall PDH operating rate was around 71%, with profit being the core driving factor. In 2026, low profit may become the norm, and some enterprises under greater operating pressure may arrange maintenance. Attention should be paid to enterprises with frequent start - stop operations and those that can significantly affect regional prices [20][21][23]. - **3.3 PP Growth Slowdown but Persistent Pressure**: The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. In 2025, the total production capacity of polypropylene powder and granules reached 57.85 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.82%. In 2026, the planned new production capacity is 3.6 - 4.4 million tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the production rhythm, maintenance, and capacity clearance on the supply side, as well as domestic demand resilience and export increments on the demand side [25]. - **3.4 Import - Export Pattern Changes**: China is still a net importer of propylene. In January - October 2025, 1.83 million tons were imported, with 1.25 million tons from South Korea, accounting for 68.31% of the total imports. South Korea plans to restructure its petrochemical business, which may lead to a reduction in China's propylene imports from South Korea and have a positive impact on the domestic supply - demand and price [30][31][33]. Chapter 3 (Continued) - **3.1 Valuation Feedback**: PDH profit has room for repair. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the PDH profit space was significantly compressed. After the new year, some enterprises may arrange maintenance, and the PDH profit is expected to recover to some extent. The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level, and there may be some room for expansion in the future if PP device maintenance increases [36][38]. - **3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook**: From January - November 2025, the domestic propylene production was 55.35 million tons, a 13.82% year - on - year increase, with an average operating rate of 74%. In 2026, the production is expected to remain high, and the supply will remain loose. The demand side is affected by the over - supply pressure of PP and other downstream industries, and the over - supply pressure will increase with new capacity addition [40][42]. - **Shandong Market Balance**: The supply in the Shandong market is mainly affected by PDH and refinery catalytic cracking, with PDH having greater fluctuations. The demand is mainly affected by PP and PO. In 2026, attention should be paid to the operation of existing capacities on the supply side and the start - up of new downstream devices on the demand side [45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of external propane and crude oil. Recently, the domestic PG has been relatively strong, mainly influenced by its stable fundamentals. However, from an expected perspective, the trend is under pressure. Overseas supply remains resilient, and domestic PDH profits are severely pressured. There is short - term support, and marginal changes should be monitored [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that the current situation is relatively neutral to strong, while the expectation is relatively weak. The long - term trading expectation is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: The international crude oil market is volatile, facing fundamental pressure of oversupply and geopolitical risks. It once fell below $60 this week but rebounded later and remained weak overall [1]. - External propane: The overseas propane market is relatively strong. US production decline has led to inventory reduction, and Middle - Eastern shipments are still low, with a tight supply pattern continuing [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: Supply - side arrivals are low this week, and port inventories are decreasing. On the chemical demand side, PDH's operating rate has risen to 75% but is in deep - loss, and there are rumors of some enterprises' planned maintenance [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a volatile state, with the PG02 price range at 3800 - 4400 [13]. - Strategy suggestions: The basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy are both volatile. For the hedging and arbitrage strategy, narrow the internal - external price difference and widen the PP/PG ratio when the price is low [13]. - Recent strategy review: PG1 - 2 and PG3 - 4 reverse spreads have been closed with profits. The long - PP and short - PG position is under observation. It is expected that some enterprises will enter maintenance in the first quarter, and attention should be paid to widening the 05PP/03PG ratio [14]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: The monthly price range is 3800 - 4400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.82% and a historical percentage of 39.18% in three years [15]. - Hedging strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including futures and options hedging, with specific suggestions on the trading direction, hedging ratio, and entry range [15]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Six departments have issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal projects and eliminate backward production capacity. Geopolitical factors support oil prices, and domestic fundamentals are relatively strong, with port inventories decreasing and PDH demand stable in the short - term [16]. - Bearish information: No bearish information is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - December 22: China's December LPR. - December 23: The revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic market: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week. There were minor changes in the net positions of major profit - making seats, long - 5 and short - 5 positions in the top - 10 list, and net positions of powerful seats, foreign investors, and retail investors [19]. - Technical analysis: The PG01 contract fluctuated upward this week, oscillating between 4000 - 4200 on the daily chart [20]. - Basis and calendar - spread structure: The LPG calendar - spread still shows a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 month spread at 119 yuan/ton (+35) [24]. 3.3.2 External Market - Unilateral trend: FEI M1 closed at $512/ton (-2), CP M1 at $498/ton (-9), and MB M1 at $339/ton (-9). The swap market weakened along with crude oil, and there were many cancellations of Chinese tenders for January - February [27]. - Calendar - spread structure: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $20/ton (+1), CP M1 - M2 was $6/ton (-3), and MB M1 - M2 was $1.3/ton (-1.6) [35]. - Regional price - difference tracking: US propane demand weakened recently, and the FEI - MB and CP - MB price differences strengthened [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 614 yuan/ton (-31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 471 yuan/ton (+29). Profit fluctuations were small [40]. 3.4.2 Downstream Profits - PDH profits calculated by FEI and CP were - 289 yuan/ton (-46) and - 430 yuan/ton (+122) respectively, indicating continuous losses. MTBE gas - fractionation profit, isomerization profit, and alkylation oil profit were - 80 yuan/ton (-17), - 265 yuan/ton (-77), and - 510 yuan/ton (-37) respectively, with small recent fluctuations [42]. - Import profits: External spot prices weakened slightly this week, while domestic import gas prices remained stable, leading to the restoration of import profits [45]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - US supply - demand: This week, production declined slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was slowly decreasing. From January to November, US LPG exports totaled 62,703 kt, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%, with exports to China decreasing by 40% [49][56]. - Middle - Eastern supply: From January to November, Middle - Eastern LPG exports totaled 44,850 kt, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Exports to India decreased by 1.55%, while those to China increased by 27%. Shipments have been low recently [59]. - Indian supply - demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and imports totaled 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak, with high demand and imports [64]. - South Korean supply - demand: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. Imports were high from May to September. Currently, propane cracking profits are still better than naphtha, and imports are expected to remain relatively high [73]. - Japanese supply - demand: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. With the cooling weather, imports are expected to increase [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but external sales volume is not high. Import volume is also not high [87]. - Demand: Chemical demand decreases, while combustion demand increases. Chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected [87]. - Inventory: Overall, inventory decreased slightly, mainly at ports [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The current new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rapidly rebounded. In the short term, there is still supply and hedging pressure above. However, based on the low inventory from the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the overall increase in domestic supply in the new year has narrowed. Downstream, domestic spinning capacity has expanded, Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, and the rigid demand for cotton consumption has increased. Domestic demand shows a moderate growth trend supported by macro - policies. At the same time, the reduction of Sino - US tariffs is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting domestic cotton consumption. The supply - demand outlook for domestic cotton in the new year is expected to be tight, and the center of cotton prices is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to whether the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy will be adjusted next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable. The predicted range for Zhengzhou cotton is around 13,500 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: In 2025, Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly in the second quarter and then rebounded, fluctuating in the range of 13,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton with low volatility. At the beginning of the year, domestic textile enterprises replenished raw materials rigidly at low prices, but with high cotton inventories, cotton prices fluctuated. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, due to the significant increase in US foreign tariffs, Zhengzhou cotton dropped sharply, but after the Sino - US talks, the tariff policy was postponed, and cotton prices rebounded. With low domestic imported cotton and better - than - expected downstream demand, Xinjiang cotton destocked quickly, and the year - end inventory was low, so cotton prices were strong. However, with the upcoming new cotton listing and a large number of pre - sales for the new year, ginneries hedged in advance under the expectation of a bumper Xinjiang cotton harvest, and cotton prices fell before the acquisition period, then fluctuated slightly with the new - season output expectation [1]. - **US Cotton**: In 2025, US cotton fluctuated narrowly in the range of 63 - 70 cents/pound. At the beginning of the year, the export progress of the 24/25 US cotton season was slow, and the unpriced purchase contracts and non - commercial short positions were high, with significant upward pressure. After the implementation of the US import tariff increase policy, cotton prices tested down to around 60 cents/pound, but after the annual export target was completed, cotton prices recovered. Then, US cotton fluctuated narrowly under the expectations of slow export contracts and a decline in new - cotton output. With the upward adjustment of the global output expectation, the global cotton supply - demand outside China was loose, and the trend of US cotton was weakening [6]. 3.2 Core Concerns 3.2.1 Xinjiang Cotton Output Reaches a New High, Pay Attention to Next Year's Policy Adjustment - **Output**: The new - season Xinjiang cotton output is expected to be high. The initial national estimate is that the average yield per mu in Xinjiang is 171.8 kg, an increase of 3.7% year - on - year, and the output is 704.7 tons, an increase of 12.2% year - on - year. The national total cotton output is expected to be 740.9 tons, an increase of 11.0% year - on - year. The current market mainstream estimates that Xinjiang's output has increased to 730 - 750 tons, and the China Cotton Information Network has adjusted the national output expectation to 767.9 tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year, with Xinjiang's output increasing to 736.9 tons. As of December 15, 2025, the national new - season cotton notarized inspection volume was 544.05 tons, an increase of 13.89% year - on - year [8]. - **Acquisition**: This year, there are 1069 target - price reform processing enterprises in Xinjiang. The cotton processing capacity is still in excess, but ginneries have low risk preferences, and the new - cotton acquisition price is relatively stable. There were many pre - sales of new cotton this year, and the sales speed was fast. Some enterprises hedged in advance, causing Zhengzhou cotton to fall before the National Day, and the overall new - cotton acquisition price was low. The acquisition price in southern Xinjiang is slightly higher than that in northern Xinjiang, and there is still some high - cost new cotton in southern Xinjiang to be hedged [8][10]. - **Policy**: This year is the last year of the 18,600 yuan/ton target - price subsidy policy for cotton. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the subsidy policy next year and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [10]. 3.2.2 Imports Remain Low, Quota Supply is Limited - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, and cumulative棉纱 imports were 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons year - on - year. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference has been at a relatively high level, and the import profit is considerable, but the import quota is limited. The 1% import tariff quota for cotton in 2026 remains at 894,000 tons, plus the additional 200,000 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued at the end of August 2025. The probability of further increasing the cotton import quota is low, and the new - year import volume is expected to be around 1.1 million tons, similar to the 24/25 season [13]. 3.2.3 Demand is Resilient, Pay Attention to Policy Support - **Domestic Demand**: From January to November 2025, the retail sales of domestic clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles totaled 1.37029 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.91% year - on - year. Since August, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic textile and clothing retail sales has exceeded that of social consumer goods retail sales. The China Cotton Textile PMI has been rising since the third quarter and returned above the boom - bust line in October. In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, domestic textile enterprises' order - receiving situation improved later. With the decline in cotton prices, spinning profits were repaired, and downstream product destocking was good. The expansion of Xinjiang's spinning capacity and the high - load operation of yarn mills have increased the rigid demand for cotton. With the continuous influence of consumption - promotion policies next year, domestic terminal textile and clothing sales are expected to maintain a moderate growth trend [18][19]. - **Export Demand**: From January to November 2025, China's total textile and clothing export volume was 267.853 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.09% year - on - year. Since July, exports have declined continuously. After the Sino - US summit in October, the US tariff policy was adjusted, which is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. In November, exports rebounded month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's cotton - product exports totaled 55.086 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.45% year - on - year, and the export volume was 6.1442 million tons, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year, showing a "quantity - for - price" situation, which still supports cotton consumption [22][23]. 3.2.4 Low Cotton - Grain Price Ratio in the US, Slow Cotton Export Progress - **Output**: In the 25/26 season, due to the low cotton - grain price ratio in the US, the cotton - planting area decreased. However, the drought in Texas has been significantly alleviated, the national cotton abandonment rate has decreased by 5.28 percentage points to 20.7%, and the yield per mu has increased by 4.9% to 69.4 kg. The USDA predicts that the US cotton output in the 25/26 season will be 3.106 million tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. If the cotton - grain price ratio remains low before the planting season next year, it may further suppress farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [25]. - **Export**: As of November 20, 2025, the US's cumulative net export contracts for 25/26 - season cotton were 1.306 million tons, a decrease of 262,000 tons year - on - year, reaching 49.16% of the annual expected export volume. China's cumulative import contracts for 25/26 - season US cotton were only 39,000 tons, a decrease of 112,000 tons year - on - year. Vietnam's cumulative import contracts were 379,000 tons, accounting for 29.02% of the contracted US cotton. Pakistan's cumulative import contracts were 138,000 tons, accounting for 10.57% of the contracted US cotton. US cotton exports have been affected by high tariffs, and the export progress has been slow. In the future, with the competition from Brazilian cotton exports, attention should be paid to changes in US foreign tariff policies [30]. 3.2.5 Abundant Foreign New - Cotton Supply, Loose Global Supply - Demand Outlook According to the USDA's December global cotton supply - demand report, the global cotton output in the 25/26 season is expected to be 26.081 million tons, an increase of 111,000 tons year - on - year. China and Brazil continue to increase production, and the US's production decline is narrower than previously expected. The global cotton output is at a relatively high historical level. The global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.823 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton ending inventory is expected to be 16.541 million tons, an increase of 296,000 tons year - on - year. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of trade policies between countries and the impact of US interest - rate cuts on terminal consumption [35]. 3.3 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook The new - season Xinjiang cotton harvest is abundant, and domestic commercial inventories have rebounded rapidly. In the short term, there is supply and hedging pressure. However, due to the low inventory in the previous year and the expected low imports in the new year, the increase in domestic supply has narrowed. Downstream demand is strong, and domestic cotton consumption is supported. The new - year domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight, and cotton prices are expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the Xinjiang target - price subsidy policy next year, as the area of new - season Xinjiang cotton is still variable [37].