Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View - Copper prices rose in the overnight session on Wednesday due to the lower - than - expected US PPI data. Investors expect inflation data to further decline, which removes obstacles to the Fed's interest rate cuts and increases the probability of rate cuts, thus pushing up copper prices. The US inflation data on Thursday night met expectations, validating the PPI data. In the short term, with a tight supply side, copper prices face significant resistance at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with prices expected to stabilize above 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Content Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,130 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 7.44%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.5% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 7,8000 yuan per ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased rate - cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and the lower support level has been raised [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are unstable; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; and the US copper tariff policy adjustment has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [6] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 340 | 0.43% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 80,100 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,057 | 45 | 0.45% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.25% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 80,175 | 430 | 0.54% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 80,140 | 415 | 0.52% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 80,120 | 380 | 0.48% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 80,270 | 390 | 0.49% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 85 | 25 | 41.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | Yuan/ton | 40 | 15 | 60% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 60 | 15 | 33.33% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 100 | 5 | 5.26% | [13] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,628.51 | - 60 | - 3.55% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,498.2 | - 0.6 | - 0.04% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 130.31 | - 59.4 | - 31.31% | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,320 | - 60 | - 0.94% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,239.51 | - 4.16 | - 0.07% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 80.49 | - 55.84 | - 40.96% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 5,419 | 1,001 | 22.66% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 1,530 | 0 | 0% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | Tons | 154,175 | - 875 | - 0.56% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | Tons | 22,675 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | Tons | 16,500 | - 115,875 | - 87.54% | | LME copper inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 133,325 | 0 | 0% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,850 | - 875 | - 4.03% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | Tons | 309,834 | 7,090 | 2.34% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 147,589 | - 3,239 | 1.09% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 162,245 | - 458 | - 0.28% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | Yuan/ton | - 104.48 | - 109.58 | - 2148.63% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 40.5 | 0 | 0% | [25]

南华金属日报：CPI符合预期 贵金属高位震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月12日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场高位震荡，白银走势略强于黄金，一方面美通胀数据符合预期而周度初请失业金人数超预期 凸显就业市场降温压力，另一方面欧美货币政策反差推动美指走低利多美元计价贵金属，此外白银现货租赁 利率偏高反映白银现货市场偏紧格局。8月底来贵金属的强势主要受美联储宽松预期增强以及长端美债收益率 大幅下滑影响。目前市场焦点在美联储降息预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及债市风险上。最终 COMEX黄金2512合约收报3673.4美元/盎司，-0.23%；美白银2512合约收报于42.065美元/盎司， +1.12%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约收830.78元/克，-0.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9798元/千克， +0.28%。数据方面，周四晚公布的美8月CPI通胀基本符合预期，8月核心CPI同比增3.1%，环比增0.3%， CPI 同比上涨2.9%，环比升至0.4%；美上周首申失业金人数不降反增至26.3万，创近四年新高。周四晚间举 ...

锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/12 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 271260 | 245000-263000 | 12.82% | 21.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1060 - 1260, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.86% and a historical percentile of 80.58% [3] - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1510 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.97% and a historical percentile of 61.85% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills start a round of price cuts (2 - 3 rounds are generally expected), coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1750, 1800) and 50% at (1800 - 1850) [3] - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - over - limit inspections in the fourth quarter, coking plants worried about future price increases can long the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1050, 1100) and 50% at (1000, 1050) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 8525 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 33782 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, coke increased by 90 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 585 sheets, and ferromanganese decreased by 118 sheets [4] Market Analysis - Coking Coal: After the end of production - restriction disturbances, mines resumed production, a round of price cuts was fully implemented, and coke producers were pessimistic about the future, reducing coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance sheet of coking coal deteriorated marginally, and mines lowered spot prices. In the short term, the rebound space of coking coal is limited; in the long term, enterprises with raw - material procurement plans can consider long - position hedging in the far - month contracts [4] - Coke: Coke producers' immediate profits are good, and after the lifting of production restrictions, production is expected to quickly recover. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. Coke is restricted by price - cut expectations, and the market performance may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] Group 4: Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Basis - Coking Coal: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Tangshan Mongolian No. 5, Port Mongolian No. 5) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched, Jinzhong Wet - Quenched) also showed different changes [7] Futures Spread - Coking Coal: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05) changed on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The spreads between different contracts also changed [7] Other Ratios - The current盘面coking profit is - 87, the main mine - coke ratio is 0.488, the main screw - coke ratio is 1.897, and the main carbon - coal ratio is 1.429, all showing certain changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] Group 5: Spot Price and Profit Data Spot Price - Coking Coal: The spot prices of various coking coal varieties (e.g., Anze Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal, Mongolian No. 5 Raw Coal at 288 Port) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [8] - Coke: The spot prices of various coke varieties (e.g., Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Wet - Quenched Coke, Lvliang Quasi - First - Grade Dry - Quenched Coke) also showed different changes [10] Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit is 127 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared with the previous day but a decrease compared with the previous week [10] - Import Profit: The import profits of different coal - importing sources (e.g., Mongolian coal, Australian coal, Russian coal) showed different changes [10] - Export Profit: The coke export profit is 364 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease compared with the previous week [10] Group 6: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors Market Outlook - In the short term, downstream steel inventories continue to accumulate, the blast - furnace link still has profits, and the supply of hot metal is resilient. The contradiction in the steel market is difficult to resolve in the short term, limiting the rebound space of coking coal. Coke may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] - In the long term, "anti - involution" is the focus in the second half of the year. Investors need to be vigilant about the impact of repeated macro - sentiment on the coal and coking market [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The details of the "anti - involution" policy have not been announced, and there may be repeated macro - sentiment. Downstream coke producers have seasonal inventory - replenishment demand for coking coal before the National Day holiday [4][6] - Bearish Factors: The daily consumption of thermal coal has reached an inflection point, and the demand for thermal coal has weakened, dragging down the price of coking blending coal [6]

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2250-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 理 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空尿素期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | U ...

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/11 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 20.80% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...

甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心甲醇价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2601 MA2601 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].

尿素期货持仓/期货价格对比图 source： 同花顺,南华研究,上海钢联 元/吨 尿素期货加权持仓量(右轴) CZCE：尿素：主力合约：收盘价（日） 万手 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 25 50 75 2000 2500 3000 尿素期货持仓/现货价格对比图 source： 同花顺,南华研究,上海钢联 元/吨 尿素期货加权持仓量(右轴) 尿素：小颗粒：市场主流价：河南（日） 万手 23/06 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 25 50 75 1500 2000 2500 3000 【核心矛盾】 近期尿素接连下跌，期货空头持仓逐日增加。从基差（河南最低交割品价格）来看，上周二基差仍处于-110 附近，截至目前基差为-70。盘面下跌超过现货下跌幅度，其中最主要的原因是盘面将出口预期挤出，后面 三、四尿素价格更多将由国内定价。 据我们了解，目前尿素400w+出口配额已全部分发完毕（市场近期传增加50w，尚不确定），考虑到配额出 口窗口截至在10月15号，因此在本次印标彻底落地后（大概率中国最低价），市场对出口预期快速回落。 尿素底部在哪里 2025/09/11 张博 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 11, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the trend of ferroalloys has mainly followed the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions has gradually disappeared, and the bearish factor restricting coking coal has also diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after the decline, also rebounded. The decline in ferroalloy production profits is expected to weaken the drive for further production increases. With the arrival of the normal water season, the output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for a short-term rise in ferroalloys. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long-term trading logic still lies in the "anti-involution" expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are still expectations for supply-side contraction. The market's long-short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The market expects that the supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese, semi-coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, making it cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract price difference of the two silicons at -400. However, without substantial progress and actions in "anti-involution," there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5450 for the ferrosilicon main 11 contract and near 5700 for the silicon-manganese main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.78%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 34.7% - Silicon-manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 29.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The recent trend of ferroalloys follows the price of coking coal. After the military parade, the production restriction logic for steel mills has faded, and the bearish factor for coking coal has diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products like polysilicon and coking coal, causing ferroalloys near the cost line to rebound. The decline in production profits is expected to limit further production increases, and the output in southern silicon-manganese production areas will decline with the normal water season. The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, while that of coking coal has not. The long-term trading logic is based on the "anti-involution" expectation, and the market's long-short logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease, and it is cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. However, without substantial "anti-involution" progress, there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline [4] Bullish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon-manganese**: The government's control policies on high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon-manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton-degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton-degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October. Attention should be paid to the impact on manganese ore prices and silicon-manganese costs [6] Bearish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.88%. The demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon-manganese**: In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the overall black sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon-manganese demand. Silicon-manganese enterprise inventory is 160,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.72%. The demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37% [7] Ferrosilicon Daily Data - Data includes ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [8] Silicon-manganese Daily Data - Data includes silicon-manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [9][10] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Data - The report provides term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][34]