1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the performance of various indicators shows different trends. For example, the PPI in November 2025 is 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November. The GDP in 2025 is expected to increase, and the PCE is 3.1%. In 2026, GDP growth and PPI trends also have corresponding forecasts, with GDP expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%, and PPI expected to be between -1% - 0 [36][40] - The performance of different investment - related data such as 300, 50, 500, and 1000 also shows different percentage changes in different periods from 2005 - 2025 [7][11][16] 3. Summary by Directory Section 1: 2025 - **1.1**: The data of 300 in 2005 was 300, with a 60% change. In 2007, it was still 300. From 2008 - 2020, it had a 25% - 40% change, and in 2020, it had a 10% - 20% change. In 2025, there is also a certain change range [7] - **1.2**: The data of 300 is involved, and in 2025, the combined data of 300, 50, 500, and 1000 shows different percentage distributions [27] - **1.3**: It involves data from 1 - 3, related to Deepseek AI, and there is a 0.03% - 2.38% change, with 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.4**: It involves data from 4 - 6, with a value of 5 in a certain situation [34] - **1.5**: It involves data from 7 - 8, with values of 7, 8, 9, and a 0.03% - 2.38% change, 17% in a certain situation [34] - **1.6**: It involves data from 9 - 12, related to AI, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [34] - **1.7**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.8**: The data of 1000 is involved, with a 25% change in a certain situation [21] - **1.10**: The data of 1000 is involved [32] Section 2: 2026 - **2.1**: In 2025, the interest rate increased by 75BP to 3.50% - 3.75% in December, and the GDP in 2026 is expected to grow by 0.5 - 2.3%. The PCE in 2025 is 3.1%, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.6% - 2.5%, reaching 2% in 2028. The FED may adjust the interest rate, with possible adjustments of 25bp, 50bp, or 75 - 100bp [36] - **2.2**: PPI in 2026 is involved. In 2023, PPI was - 2.5%, and in November 2025, it was 2.2%, with a 0.1% change in October and November [40] - **2.3**: It is related to the PPI situation from 2012 - 2015 and 2016, and the PPI in 2026 is expected to be between - 1% - 0 [43][46] - **2.6**: In 2025, the PE - TTM of 300 and 50 is involved [50] - **2.7**: No specific content provided - **2.8**: No specific content provided - **2.9**: No specific content provided Section 3 - **3.1**: It involves IC, IM, IF, and IH [59] - **3.2**: It involves IM and IF, with a 5% change in a 1 - 3 situation [59] - **3.3**: It involves MO, and the end - of - year data is for 2025 [59]

南华期货焦煤焦炭2026年度展望 ——终端需求弹性缺失下的价格僵局 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月23日 第一章 观点概要 【核心观点】展望2026年，国内煤焦市场将继续在"能源保供稳价"的基础上，通过"环保限产"、"查超产"、"控 能耗"等行政手段约束过量供应、稳定价格预期，并为焦煤价格提供相对稳固的底部支撑，预计全年国内焦煤 产量将同比小幅收紧（-0.5%）。此外，焦煤进口规模有望进一步扩张，预计全年净进口量较今年增加 （+3.3%）。在总量扩张的同时，焦煤进口结构也将面临调整，具体表现为来自蒙古、俄罗斯、加拿大的焦 煤进口增加，美国煤进口减少，澳煤份额则维持相对稳定。投资者需重点关注蒙煤进口规模扩大对国内焦煤 供需结构的冲击，以及澳煤作为海运市场的关键定价基准，其对国内焦煤价格反弹空间的估值约束。焦炭方 面，我们认为2026年焦化行业的利润修复面临双重制约。一方面，钢材出口监管趋严与"反内卷"政策共同作 用，或将削弱我国钢材的国际价格优势，进而拖累短期出口增速；另一方面，国内房地产、基建等传统内需 领域难有起色，黑色终端需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market. The market will maintain low - level fluctuations, waiting for the US energy policy and further news on Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8,200 yuan/ton, and the palm oil may have a chance to improve in the future [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the oil market lies in the external market. Key issues include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed oil supply, and the overall sufficient supply of the three major domestic oils [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - No specific content provided other than the headings. 1.3 Industry Client Operation Suggestions - The short - term trend is low - level shock adjustment, with a possible rebound in Q1 2026. The price ranges for P2605, Y2605, and OI2605 are [8,200 - 8,800], [7,600 - 8,100], and [8,600 - 9,500] respectively. Technical analysis suggests a short - term low - level consolidation approach for single - side trading and observing the weakening trend of rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads for arbitrage. The current basis is expected to be weak in the short term, and the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads are expected to weaken [19]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on basis, spreads, and other indicators [21][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The US will exempt Indonesia's palm oil tariffs. Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in December. Indonesia has started the B50 biodiesel road test, and its implementation is likely in H2 2026. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased in October [23][24]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025. China's palm oil inventory increased in December. Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased in December. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [25]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Key events include domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysia's palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the US small refinery exemption re - allocation, China - Canada trade negotiation progress, and producing area weather information [33]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was weak this week, lacking upward drivers. Capital trends showed a bearish sentiment in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The basis continued to be weak, and the market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. The rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads weakened slightly [32][35][43]. - **International Market**: The international market was weak and volatile. Palm oil producing areas faced pressure, and the US soybean market lacked positive drivers. The market sentiment was pessimistic [45]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread rebounded slightly, and the BOHO spread continued to weaken [49]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Import profits fluctuated slightly, but were limited. Profits weakened again near the end of the year [51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Producing Area Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Malaysia's palm oil inventory pressure remained in November. December production decreased, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [55]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: Low - season demand and winter factors limit domestic purchases. Wait for inventory pressure relief. - Soybean oil: December raw material arrivals may decline, but inventory is still abundant. Pay attention to potential short - term supply shortages in Q1. - Rapeseed oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed arrivals have increased, the supply gap may gradually disappear [57]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - Short - term demand for the three major oils is weak. The traditional consumption peak in Q4 has limited impact, and the overall demand is expected to remain stable and weak [60].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - The Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 1.42% to 2584.69, with an annualized return of 2.01% and an annualized volatility of 11.58% [1][3] - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest increase of 3.45%, reaching 1826.04, while the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest increase of 0.28%, at 2527.31 [1][3] - Among the theme indices, the Energy Index rose 2.05% to 972.56, and the Economic Crop Index had the smallest increase of 0.14% at 903.49. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.28% to 679.92 [1][3] - In the single - variety commodity futures indices, the Silver index had the largest increase of 5.42%, and the Polypropylene index had the largest decline [1][4] 2. Index Data Details | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily Change | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2584.69 | 2548.39 | 36.30 | 1.42% | 2.01% | 11.58% | 0.17 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1826.04 | 1765.15 | 60.89 | 3.45% | 74.65% | 19.20% | 3.89 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3493.62 | 3460.46 | 33.16 | 0.96% | - 8.14% | 13.81% | -0.59 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6723.72 | 6672.06 | 51.66 | 0.77% | 4.58% | 11.97% | 0.38 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1513.23 | 1497.21 | 16.02 | 1.07% | -16.78% | 16.60% | -1.01 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1851.85 | 1831.17 | 20.68 | 1.13% | 11.83% | 12.67% | 0.93 | | Black Index NHFI | 2527.31 | 2520.31 | 7.00 | 0.28% | -7.98% | 16.36% | -0.49 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1030.32 | 1024.66 | 5.66 | 0.55% | -3.64% | 8.19% | -0.44 | | Mini Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1161.70 | 1146.24 | 15.46 | 1.35% | -1.31% | 9.70% | -0.14 | | Energy Index NHEI | 972.56 | 953.02 | 19.53 | 2.05% | -1.10% | 18.01% | -0.06 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 872.46 | 862.93 | 9.53 | 1.10% | -0.81% | 9.56% | -0.08 | | Coal - based Chemical Index NHCCI | 886.96 | 889.22 | -2.27 | -0.25% | -3.37% | 10.33% | -0.33 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHEM | 1064.11 | 1061.85 | 2.27 | 0.21% | 0.54% | 15.68% | 0.03 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 679.92 | 681.80 | -1.88 | -0.28% | -1.85% | 11.78% | -0.16 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1195.55 | 1185.56 | 9.99 | 0.84% | -1.57% | 7.80% | -0.20 | | Economic Crop Index NHAECI | 903.49 | 902.24 | 1.25 | 0.14% | 0.58% | 7.43% | 0.08% [3] 3. Other Information - The calculation method of the contribution degree in the report is the product of the daily increase/decrease and the weight. The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when the commodity contract changes months, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [9] - The report provides the industrial chain diagrams and the daily increase/decrease of single - variety indices of some varieties in the agricultural products, energy and chemical, and black sectors [7][13]

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 12 月 22 日 聚酯开枪、全面反内卷还远吗 本周主要观点： 近期市场分化程度有所减弱，主要是受到国家整治内卷式竞 争的政策预期影响，PTA 已经开始反内卷，龙头企业主动减产， 价格明显反弹。在此背景下，其他化工品可能会仿效或跟进。这 也是响应国家政策的号召。另外，农产品整体仍然震荡格局不 变，全球大豆供应过剩的局面暂难缓解，豆粕依然以震荡看待。 从市场整体来看，低估值的化工和黑色板块，可能面临反内卷行 情，不宜过分看空做空，农产品板块仍然维持震荡判断，新能源 基本面改善，强势趋势延续。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、移仓换月； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 周行情观点综述 本周商品市场总体呈现出支撑反弹的迹象。但是，结构还不够稳，焦煤和玻 璃、塑料等品种，依然有二次寻底的可能。（1）铜和铝、白银等品种，依然强势 不减，作为中长期基本面的品种，供需矛盾的转换周期略长，短期品种仍然会受制 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market showed a narrow - range oscillation this week, with a significant increase in the implied volatility of metal options. In the financial options market, the trading volume of 50ETF options increased compared to the previous week, and the put - call trading ratio decreased, while the put - call holding ratio increased. Different types of options had various changes in trading volume, holding volume, and implied volatility [1][2]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Options - **Trading Volume and Holding Volume**: 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1.0623 million contracts this week, a 37.14% increase from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.83, lower than the historical average, and the put - call holding ratio last week was 1.01, higher than the historical average. Other options such as Huatai - Baorui 300ETF options, Southern China CSI 500ETF options, etc., also had corresponding average daily trading and holding volumes [1]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 15.10%, a 1.06% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of 50ETF options was 12.61%, a 1.09% increase; the implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 17.41%, a 0.16% decrease [2]. Commodity Options - **Implied Volatility**: As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 15.41%, a 0.53% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of lithium carbonate options was 41.37%, an 8.43% increase; the implied volatility of rebar options was 21.57%, a 2.26% increase; the implied volatility of soda ash options was 23.53%, a 1.01% increase; the implied volatility of gold options was 21.57%, a 2.26% increase; the implied volatility of silver options was 43.74%, a 6.02% increase; the implied volatility of palm oil options was 16.79%, a 0.34% increase; the implied volatility of soybean oil options was 10.95%, a 0.71% decrease; the implied volatility of rapeseed oil options was 14.93%, a 1.86% increase; the implied volatility of rubber options was 16.20%, a 0.85% increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone. The US job market is cooling, and CPI data is suspected of being distorted. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, causing the global bond market to decline. Domestically, fiscal and monetary policies remain positive, but domestic demand is weak and needs policy support [2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may "break 7" and depreciate moderately in 2026, supported by factors such as narrowing monetary policy differentials, strengthening domestic economic fundamentals, and inflows of international capital [4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be volatile; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver prices are strong. In the short - term, silver should be cautiously chased due to rising price risks. In the long - term, factors such as the Fed's rate - cut rhythm, dollar index, and demand for gold by central banks should be considered [11][12]. - Copper prices may break through or return to a volatile pattern. Buying on dips is recommended [15]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - Zinc is expected to have a high - level wide - range shock in the short - term [17]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the market is affected by various factors. Tin prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [18][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices may have a short - term correction but are expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance in the long - term. Buying on dips is recommended [21]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron ore prices are range - bound, with upper pressure from high supply and lower support from steel mill profits and expected iron - water recovery [26][27]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by supply and demand and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - Crude oil prices may rise due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela [34]. - LPG is supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [38][39]. - MEG prices are under pressure from supply and demand and cost, and the upside is limited [41]. - Methanol is in a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - PP may have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [45]. - PE is affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [47]. - Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [50][51]. - Rubber is expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - Log prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - Propylene is expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - Oilseeds have a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - Oils are running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - Cotton prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - Sugar prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - Egg prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - Apple prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - Red date prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes the State Council meeting, TikTok news, price rules, Hainan's customs - closure, Trump's policies, Fed news, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and international negotiations [1]. - The core logic is the Fed's rate cut, the Bank of Japan's rate hike, and the domestic economic policy of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose. Important news includes the US Treasury Secretary's statement and Trump's pharmaceutical agreement. The 2026 exchange rate is expected to be volatile and depreciate moderately [3][4]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index rose, but the trading volume was low. The short - term is expected to be volatile [4][5]. Treasury Bond - The previous week's bond market rebounded. The market is not pessimistic in the medium - term, and short - term trading should avoid chasing highs [5][6]. Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFI European line slightly declined, and futures prices were volatile at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [7][8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are strong. In the short - term, silver price risks are rising; in the long - term, multiple factors need to be considered [11][12]. - **Copper**: Prices may break through or be volatile. Buying on dips is recommended [13][15]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium - term; alumina is weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [16]. - **Zinc**: Short - term high - level wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices have rebounded, affected by various factors [18]. - **Tin**: Prices should be cautiously chased above 340,000 [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May have a short - term correction, but long - term supply - demand is tight. Buying on dips is recommended [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and polysilicon trading should focus on technical analysis [21]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 [23]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices are volatile, affected by cost support and demand weakness [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are range - bound, with supply pressure on the upside and demand support on the downside [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Affected by supply, demand, and inventory. The third - round price cut of coke is expected to land, and the coking coal inventory structure may improve [30]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, but the upside is limited [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices are expected to be volatile, and offset paper can be lightly shorted [32]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices may rise due to the tense US - Venezuela situation [34]. - **LPG**: Supported in the near - term but under pressure in the long - term [35]. - **PTA - PX**: In a good supply - demand pattern, but PTA processing fees have limited upside. Buying on dips is recommended [36][38]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Prices are under pressure from supply, demand, and cost, and the upside is limited [40][41]. - **Methanol**: In a mixed situation, and the 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage can be held [43]. - **PP**: May have reduced supply in January, and buying on dips can be considered [44][45]. - **PE**: Affected by the weak spot market, but the downside is limited due to potential supply reduction [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in a surplus situation, and styrene is changing from a strong to a weak situation [48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is improving [49][51]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be under pressure and volatile, and synthetic rubber's upside is limited [52][53]. - **Urea**: Expected to be volatile in the short - term [54]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Volatile, with soda ash facing surplus pressure and glass having high inventory [54][55][56]. - **Log**: Prices may improve due to supply reduction expectations, and a short put option strategy can be considered [58]. - **Propylene**: Expected to be weakly volatile [60]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: May be affected by policies in the long - term, but the short - term is based on fundamentals. The near - term has high supply pressure, and the far - term is stronger [61]. - **Oilseeds**: Near - strong and far - weak pattern. Soybean meal's near - term is supported, and rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [62][63]. - **Oils**: Running weakly following the external market. Buying near - term contracts can be tried [63][64]. - **Cotton**: Prices lack a short - term driver but may rise in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream order situation before the festival [66]. - **Sugar**: Prices have rebounded after a sharp decline, and the downward trend continues [67]. - **Egg**: Prices may have a short - term rebound, but the long - term capacity is still excessive [68]. - **Apple**: Prices may have a pull - back, and buying on dips can be considered [69]. - **Red Date**: Prices have limited downside in the short - term, and attention should be paid to pre - festival procurement [70].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The urea market is within the range of fundamentals and policies. In the short term, its downside space is strongly supported, but there is also pressure on the upside. It is expected to show a volatile trend [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is weak and stalemated. The weekend domestic urea market continued to be firm and rising, but the mid - to - long - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [10][18][19]. - The overall urea market is expected to be volatile, with a possible narrow rebound followed by a stalemate, and the bottom range may continue to rise [16]. Group 3: Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The change in phosphate fertilizer policy suppresses the speculative nature of the fertilizer sector, weakening the spot trading of urea. The high daily production of urea under policy support and profit repair exerts significant pressure on prices, but the export policy adjustment weakens the downward price drive. The short - term domestic urea market is weak, but the continuous destocking of explicit inventory supports prices [3]. - Regarding futures trading, although new delivery warehouses are added, the cheapest deliverable goods are still from Henan and Shandong. Considering the disappearance of the export expectation for the 01 contract, a reverse arbitrage strategy is adopted for the 1 - 5 month spread. The 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [5]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. - **Price Range**: UR2601 is expected to trade between 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Short positions are recommended when the price is above 1750 yuan/ton, and a reverse arbitrage is recommended for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [12]. - **Basis, Month - spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Suggestions**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. The 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton and a lower static support range of 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices and conduct a reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. No hedging arbitrage strategy is provided [13][14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [15]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. After the maintenance of some plants in Shandong and Jiangsu, and the expected concentrated maintenance of some gas - based urea plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan, the domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly to around 200,000 tons [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - China's urea production is expected to reach around 1.34 million tons next week, an increase from this week. There are no plans for plant shutdowns, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production, increasing the probability of production growth [17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender boosted market sentiment, but mid - to - downstream resistance emerged. The short - term market is still strong [18]. - The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand, so the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse arbitrage pattern [19]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is predicted to be 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% over three years. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, shorting urea futures, buying put options, and selling call options are recommended to lock in profits and reduce costs. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, buying urea futures, selling put options are recommended to lock in procurement costs and reduce expenses [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The report presents the seasonal trends of the weekly fixed - bed production cost, natural - gas production cost, water - coal slurry gasification profit, and fixed - bed production profit of urea [27][30][33]. 4.2 Upstream Production Rate Tracking - The report shows the seasonal trends of the daily urea production, weekly production capacity utilization rate, coal - based production capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based production capacity utilization rate [36][37]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides the seasonal trends of China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the combined port and inland inventory [39][41][43]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report presents the seasonal trends of the weekly production capacity utilization rate and inventory of compound fertilizers, the production profit, production capacity utilization rate, market price, and weekly output of melamine, as well as the market prices of compound fertilizers in different regions and the daily market price of synthetic ammonia in Henan [45][48][52][58][65]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report shows the seasonal trends of the average production and sales of urea and the production and sales of urea in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [67][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core framework for interest rate bond pricing remains the attitude of monetary policy, market expectations (liquidity), and fundamental expectations [2][92]. - The market has a highly consistent confidence and expectation in re - inflation, but the specific height of recovery depends on the improvement of demand [2][92]. - Next year, external demand is unlikely to continue to provide "above - expected" growth, and the actual growth rate will offset the contribution of re - inflation to the nominal growth rate to some extent [2][92]. - The bond market is facing two major risks: marginal improvement in inflation and supply - demand mismatch at the ultra - long end. The supply - demand mismatch of ultra - long - term government bonds will become more obvious [2][92]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, and the central bank's increase in tools such as bond - buying may bring phased market opportunities [2][92]. - Next year, interest rates will generally continue the low - level shock market, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate between 1.7% - 2% [3][93]. - It is recommended to increase timing and attention to market data to play for band trading opportunities. Before the cycle indicator indicates that the interest rate will break away from the low level, each approach to the upper limit of the range will be a suitable allocation opportunity [3][93]. - In terms of arbitrage strategies, considering the inevitable rise of inflation and the necessity of maintaining monetary easing under the current fundamentals, steepening the 30 - 2 yield curve is the most certain choice [3][93]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Priced by Marginal Increment - **Spring Festival - end of March**: There was a resonance between tightened funds and risk appetite, and policy expectations were significantly revised [6]. - **Second Quarter**: Geopolitical disturbances led to the early implementation of easing policies [6]. - **Third Quarter**: Market sentiment reversed [6]. - **End of October - End of the Year**: The restart of bond - buying triggered new policy games [6]. 2. Interest Rate Decomposition: Correctly View "Re - inflation" - **Price Trend Improvement**: CPI and PPI showed certain trends of improvement, with PPI having a more obvious bottom - up trend [26]. - **Consistent Direction, Diverse Optimism Levels** - Do not over - estimate the effectiveness of anti - involution policies [6]. - The rise in commodity prices is structurally obvious, with price increases concentrated in some industries [6]. - Demand determines the height of the rebound. The recovery height of CPI and PPI depends on demand improvement, with CPI expected to be between 0 - 1% and PPI between - 1% - 1% [6][40]. 3. Interest Rate Decomposition: The Elasticity of Real Interest Rates Still Lies in Domestic Demand - **Economic Growth: Expected Difference Abroad, Elasticity at Home**: In 2025, GDP showed certain growth characteristics, and the expected difference in economic growth mainly comes from external factors, while the elasticity lies in domestic demand [46]. - **Exports: Maintaining Stability, Difficult to Have Expected Differences** - Geopolitical visibility has increased, and the global cycle is improving, but external demand is unlikely to exceed expectations [54]. - The proportion of exports is at a historical high, and the export situation of some countries such as South Korea shows a downward trend in the central level [54][61]. - **Domestic Demand: Policy Support, Emphasizing Both Quantity and Structure** - **Policy Emphasizes Quantity and Quality, "Price" over "Quantity"**: The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of the year emphasized high - quality development and structural adjustment. In the context of continuing the dual - loose monetary and fiscal policies, the increase in policy intensity in 2026 is likely to be weaker than in 2025 [69][70]. - **Still Facing Downward Pressure in the Short Term**: Domestic demand, especially consumption and investment, still faces certain downward pressure, and the non - government sector's financing is continuously sluggish and the leverage ratio is still high [72][75]. 4. How to Understand Monetary Policy? - **Supportive Policy Stance Remains Consistent**: Although the use of traditional aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has converged this year, the improvement of the policy tool system has reduced the necessity of continuous use of aggregate policies, and the overall capital cost is low. As long as there is pressure on the demand side, there is no need to doubt the central bank's policy stance [79]. - **The Necessity of Interest Rate Cuts is Decreasing, but the "Threshold" to Become a Market Catalyst is also Decreasing**: There are concerns that the supply pressure of ultra - long bonds will be too large next year. Bond - buying by the central bank corresponds to the release of long - term liquidity, and if the central bank extends the bond - buying period, it means further improvement in the expectation of monetary easing [91]. 5. Summary and Outlook - Re - emphasize the core framework for interest rate bond pricing, the situation of re - inflation and external demand, and the risks faced by the bond market [92]. - Forecast the trend of interest rates next year, and give suggestions on trading and arbitrage strategies [93].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, which leads to the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The 01 contract of domestic sugar is unlikely to have a large - scale rebound and may transition smoothly with the spot price; the 05 contract may face greater pressure and has the possibility of falling to a very low price [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to have limited rebound height in the near - term, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Domestic Contracts**: The 01 contract's pricing and the 05 contract's trend are key issues. The 01 contract is less likely to rebound significantly and may align with the spot price. The 05 contract has the greatest pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future and may fall to a low price [1]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price has fallen sharply, and it is difficult for it to firmly stand above 15 cents. The near - term rebound is limited, and the game around 15.2 cents will continue [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Situation**: The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is slowing. Although the long - term structure is bearish, there is a short - term need for price to rebound and return to the 10 - day moving average [10]. - **Strategy Review**: Unilateral long position on SR2511 has been stopped out. There are also some basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies [12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of sugar is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 7.29% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [13]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, enterprises with high finished - product inventory can short Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell call options. For procurement management, enterprises with low procurement inventory can long Zhengzhou sugar futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to November increased. The imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased. In the second half of November, Brazil's sugar production decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the export volume in the first two weeks of December increased [14]. - **Negative Information**: In November 2025, China's dairy product production decreased year - on - year, and the number of sugar mills in Guangxi that started production decreased. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor the weekly quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped and the number of ships in Brazilian ports (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's sugar export data for November (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar pressing progress [17][20]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar price fell by 2.42% this week. The position of the SR2605 contract increased seasonally and reached a historical high. The market shows a bearish technical pattern. The basis of the 01 contract is expected to repair to near - par, and the market presents a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread expanding [19][22]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price fell by 1.66% last week. Although it rebounded on Friday, it still closed below 15 cents. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position. The market shows a back structure, and there is pressure from hedging positions above 15.2 cents [24][26]. - **Domestic - International Price Difference**: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to weak domestic and strong international [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is very rich. The imports of syrup and premixed powder are relatively stable [32]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1156 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and the current situation [37].