Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. The trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the latest PCE price index was not available, and the expectation of interest rate cuts did not change much. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the weak fundamental state. Without new positive factors, the stock index maintained a volatile trend today. However, except for the slight convergence of the discount of IF in the basis of stock index futures, the discounts of the rest deepened. The dividend index led the rise again, indicating that market sentiment has cooled down and become more cautious. Currently, both the upper pressure and the lower support have weakened. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a narrow - range oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.05%. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 735.53 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IM declined with increasing volume, and the rest of the varieties also declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, with an expected 225,000 [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.0893 | 4.2497 | 11.2976 | 18.3443 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.3606 | 0.7008 | 0.6006 | 0.5893 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4196 | 9.2285 | 25.457 | 36.4043 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.4902 | 0.6077 | 0.5482 | 0.2816 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.29 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17097.94 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -735.53 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. Given the weakening economic fundamentals, interest rates are expected to remain low for a certain period. Mid - term bottom positions should be held, and new long positions can be gradually established on dips, with price intervals widened [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面点评 - On Thursday, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. TS closed up, TF and T closed down, and TL remained flat. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 356.4 billion yuan, with a net injection of 56.4 billion yuan [1]. 3.2.重要资讯 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 17 basis points to 7.0779, reaching the highest level since October 14, 2024. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Vanke announced that it will hold a meeting to review matters related to bond extension [2]. 3.3.行情研判 - Today, Treasury bond futures showed weak fluctuations after a sharp decline, and the trading volume of the main contracts of each variety decreased significantly. In terms of data, industrial enterprise profits in October decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate of profits from January to October slowed down. The weakening economic fundamentals determine that interest rates need to remain low for a certain period. Operationally, mid - term bottom positions should be held, and new long positions can be gradually established on dips, with price intervals widened [3]. 3.4.国债期货日度数据 - **Price and price change**: TS2603 closed at 102.394, up 0.012; TF2603 closed at 105.78, down 0.005; T2603 closed at 107.905, down 0.05; TL2603 closed at 114.43, unchanged [4]. - **Position change**: TS contract positions decreased by 4,339 to 66,382; TF contract positions decreased by 15,019 to 146,639; T contract positions decreased by 27,648 to 237,119; TL contract positions decreased by 14,248 to 169,380 [4]. - **Base - spread change**: TS basis (CTD) increased by 0.0302 to - 0.0566; TF basis (CTD) increased by 0.1322 to 0.0093; T basis (CTD) increased by 0.1048 to 0.0632; TL basis (CTD) increased by 0.3829 to 0.6666 [4][5]. - **Trading volume change**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 6,816 to 29,291; TF main contract trading volume decreased by 18,744 to 58,494; T main contract trading volume decreased by 34,131 to 75,691; TL main contract trading volume decreased by 40,220 to 99,298 [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Overall Market - Overseas, US employment data shows significant differentiation. The Fed's 12 - month rate - cut expectation is strengthened, and the focus is on November employment data and the Fed chair selection process. Domestically, the economic fundamentals cool marginally, but policy remains firm, and the market expects more policies. [2] - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to "oscillate and build a bottom, with a slowly declining central value". RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, but it's hard to have a unilateral rapid appreciation in the short - term. [4] Commodities - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand will push up prices. Short - term, focus on the December Fed rate - cut expectation and 60 - day moving average. [12] - Copper prices are expected to be strong, with the futures price possibly breaking through 87,000. [13][14] - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. [15] - Zinc is expected to oscillate. [16] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are in a wait - and - see state. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger. [17][18] - Tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and it's recommended to enter the market on dips. [18] - Lithium carbonate may have a phased correction, and it's advisable to enter on dips after the correction. [20] - Industrial silicon will oscillate in the short - term and has long - term value for bottom - fishing. Polysilicon should pay attention to the position risk. [21][22] - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar may move between 2,900 - 3,200, and hot - rolled coils between 3,100 - 3,400. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] - Coking coal's 01 contract may be under pressure, while the 05 contract has long - term long - allocation potential. Coke's short - selling space is limited. [28][29] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly. [33] - PX - PTA may correct, and it's advisable to go long after the correction. [33][34][35] - MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. [38] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. [40] - PE is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a put - option strategy can be considered. [42] - Pure benzene and styrene are affected by export and maintenance news. Pay attention to actual transactions and maintenance plans. [43] - Fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. Consider widening the high - low sulfur spread. [44][45][46] - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] - Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] - Soda ash is expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [51] - Glass's 01 contract will follow the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - Caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high - level supply pressure. [54] - Logs' 01 contract is weak in reality, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] - Propylene's supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: China promotes new business forms and AI application, urges a solution for Anshi Semiconductor, and Vanke discusses bond extension. US jobless claims fall, durable goods orders rise, and the Fed's Beige Book shows limited economic change. The UK announces a tax - increase plan, and there are developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas, US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthened. Domestically, economic fundamentals cool, but policy is firm. [2] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthens against the USD. Policies are introduced to boost consumption, and the New Zealand central bank cuts rates. The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD in the long - term but may slow down in the short - term. [3][4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices fall. Rumors of new public - fund fee regulations may cause selling pressure, but policies may hedge it. It's advisable to go long on dips. [5] - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Futures prices fall due to the Red Sea resumption expectation and weak spot prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. It's advisable to hold mid - term long positions and go long on dips. [5][6][7] Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Prices rise. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and delivery pressure affect prices. Platinum and palladium futures are listed. [9] - **Rate - cut Expectation and Fund Holdings**: The Fed's rate - cut probability is high. Gold ETF holdings increase, while silver, platinum, and palladium ETF holdings change differently. Inventories of gold and silver change. [10] - **This Week's Focus**: US Thanksgiving affects CME precious - metal trading hours. [11] - **View**: In the medium - to - long - term, prices will rise. Short - term, focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and technical indicators. [12] Copper - **Market Review**: Copper prices rise. The basis and the Shanghai - London ratio change. [13] - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventories change, and the 2026 copper concentrate benchmark price may decline. US jobless claims data is released. [13][14] - **View and Strategy**: Spot trading has a price - pressing mentality, but futures have an upward expectation. It's advisable to pay attention to support and pressure levels and go long on dips for downstream enterprises. [14] Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices change. [14] - **Core View**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina weakly, and cast aluminum alloy at a high level. [15] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices oscillate, and the night - session opens higher. [16] - **Core Logic**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is high, and the dollar is weak. The smelting end has a strong demand for ore, and domestic inventories are decreasing while LME inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate. [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rise. [17] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices, premiums, and inventories are reported. [17] - **Market Analysis**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel - iron prices fall, and stainless steel has export benefits but weak demand. [18] Tin - **Market Review**: Tin prices oscillate, and the night - session price rises due to long - position funds. [18] - **Core Logic**: Supply is weaker than demand due to production resumption issues. It's recommended to enter on dips. [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and trading volume and open interest increase. [19] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and downstream materials change. [19] - **View**: In December, the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price may correct at 100,000 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to go long on dips. [20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Futures prices change, and trading volume and open interest change. [20] - **Industry Performance**: Spot prices of industrial silicon and photovoltaic products change. [21] - **View**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks. [21][22] Lead - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillate, and the night - session price is pressured. [22][23] - **Core Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Review**: Prices fall slightly. Iron ore affects the rise of finished - product prices. [25] - **Core Logic**: Steel supply and demand both increase, and inventories decline slowly. Iron ore prices oscillate. Finished - product prices are expected to oscillate within a range. [25] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Prices are at a high - level oscillation. [24] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and electric - furnace steel mills' capacity utilization and scrap consumption change. [26] - **View**: Prices are strong in the short - term, affected by coking coal. It's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices are at the bottom and oscillate widely. [27] - **Information Arrangement**: A consumption promotion plan is released, and coking coal auction prices fall. [27][28] - **Core Logic**: Coking coal supply is marginally loose, and demand is weak. Coke has priced in multiple rounds of price cuts. It's advisable to go long on coking coal's 05 contract on dips and avoid short - selling coke blindly. [28][29] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Review**: Prices fall. [29] - **Core Logic**: Steel mills' profitability declines, iron - water production decreases, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese face high - inventory and weak - demand issues. It's expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals LPG - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices change. [32] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand change slightly, and inventories increase. [32] - **View**: The RMB - denominated LPG is relatively strong, and the market may oscillate strongly. [33] PTA - PX - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is expected to be high, and PTA has many shutdowns. Polyester demand is expected to be high. PX benefits are good, and PTA processing fees are low. [33][34][35] - **View**: The PX - PTA market is affected by oil - blending speculation. It's advisable to go long on dips after the correction. [35] MEG - Bottle Chips - **Inventory and Devices**: Port inventory is stable, and some devices restart or shut down. [35][36] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand is expected to be high. Inventories may decline to a tight balance. [36][37] - **View**: Demand is stable, but supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. It's advisable to sell call options on rebounds. [38] PP - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [38] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and demand growth slows after the "Double 11" festival. Inventories decline. [39] - **View**: PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to weak demand and cost support. [40] PE - **Market Dynamics**: Futures and spot prices fall. [41] - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand weakens as the agricultural - film season ends. Inventories decline. [41][42] - **View**: PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and is expected to oscillate at a low level. It's advisable to use a put - option strategy. [42] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise. [42] - **Inventory and View**: Pure - benzene and styrene inventories change. The market is affected by export and maintenance news. [42][43] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: Futures prices are reported. [43] - **Industry Performance**: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil change in November, and inventories change. [43][44][45] - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply increases, and demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply may be affected by refinery issues, and demand is relatively stable. High - sulfur cracking is expected to fall, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. [44][45][46] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices change. [47] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, demand increases slightly, and inventories decline. [47][48] - **View**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Macro and Inventory Information**: China conducts MLF operations, and US economic data is released. Rubber inventories change, and Thailand's floods affect production. [48][49] - **Core View**: Rubber supply tightens, and demand weakens. It's expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Inventory decreases, and it's expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [50][51] - **Glass**: The 01 contract follows the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices change locally, and supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high - level supply pressure. [54] Logs - **Market and Valuation**: Futures prices change, and spot prices and inventory costs are reported. [54][55] - **Core Contradiction**: The 01 contract is weak in reality, and the 03 contract has a weak peak - season expectation. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] Propylene - **Market Dynamics**: Futures prices fall, and the PP - PL spread compresses. [57] - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreases, and demand increases. Other downstream industries have low profit levels. [57][58] - **View**: Supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Futures prices rise, and spot prices change. The near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals. In the short - term, pay attention to the change of the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation, and Fed officials' speeches are the only signal when data is lacking. Technically, pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and corrections are regarded as mid - to - long - term opportunities to add long positions. The resistance of London gold is 4250, support is 4000, and strong support is in the 3900 area; the resistance of silver is 54.5, and support is 50. Platinum and palladium prices currently mainly follow gold and silver, dominated by investment attributes [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December and the delivery pressure of COMEX gold and silver in December's delivery month made precious metals prone to rise and hard to fall. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in economic activity during the government shutdown period. US economic data included a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims to 216,000 and a 0.5% month - on - month increase in the preliminary value of September durable goods orders. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted a 3.9% GDP growth rate in Q3. Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures were listed today, and options will be listed on Friday. Finally, COMEX gold 2602 contract closed at $4160.6/oz (+0.5%); COMEX silver 2603 contract closed at $53.05/oz (+4.09%); SHFE gold 2602 contract closed at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.55%); SHFE silver 2602 contract closed at 12,227 yuan/kg (+1.79%); NYMEX platinum 2601 contract closed at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium 2603 contract closed at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [1] Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 was 15.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 84.9%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.57 tons to 1045.43 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15,511.81 tons; global platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.0003 tons to 96.271 tons; global palladium ETF holdings decreased by 0.079 tons to 32.2961 tons (-0.24%). SHFE gold inventory remained at 9.04 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.1 tons to 531.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 58.8 tons to 715.9 tons in the week ending November 21. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged [2] This Week's Focus - Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving in the US. CME precious metal futures contract trading will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 28th on Thursday and at 03:45 Beijing time on the 29th on Friday [3] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.02%); SGX gold TD was at 941.17 yuan/g (+0.05%); CME gold main contract was at $4196.1/oz (+0.74%); SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 12,227 yuan/kg (+0.82%); SGX silver TD was at 12,209 yuan/kg (+0.63%); CME silver main contract was at $53.76/oz (+5.25%); SHFE - TD gold was at 5.55 yuan/g (-4.48%); SHFE - TD silver was at 18 yuan/kg (-73.68%); CME gold - silver ratio was 78.0525 (-4.28%); NYMEX platinum main - continuous contract was at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium main - continuous contract was at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [6] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 90,423 kg (0%); CME gold inventory was 1137.3521 tons (-0.01%); SHFE gold position was 188,763 lots (+4.19%); SPDR gold position was 1045.43 tons (+0.44%); SHFE silver inventory was 531.211 tons (-1.73%); CME silver inventory was 14,248.0999 tons (-0.25%); SGX silver inventory was 715.875 tons (-7.59%); SHFE silver position was 385,232 lots (+5.07%); SLV silver position was 15,582.334202 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum inventory was 19.1893 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum position was 88,642 lots (-2.45%); NYMEX palladium inventory was 5.3879 tons (0%); NYMEX palladium position was 21,673 lots (-4.82%); global platinum ETF was 96.271 tons (0%); global palladium ETF was 32.2961 tons (-0.24%) [13] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 99.5831 (-0.22%); the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0693 (-0.19%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 47,427.12 points (+0.67%); WTI crude oil spot was $58.65/barrel (+1.21%); LmeS copper 03 was $10,953/ton (+1.11%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4% (-0.25%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.77% (-1.12%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.55% (-5.17%) [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In 2026, the non-ferrous metal market will continue to trade on the two themes of "macro-policy disturbances" and "mine supply security." The prices of different metals will significantly diverge based on their supply-demand fundamentals. It is advisable to focus on structural opportunities, such as the long-term allocation value of copper, aluminum, and tin, the internal and external arbitrage window in the zinc market, and the banded rebound opportunities of cobalt, nickel, and other varieties due to policy or cost support. The strength ranking of major global non-ferrous metals in 2026 is: tin > copper > aluminum > cobalt > zinc > nickel > lithium > lead [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry Background: Game, Deviation, and Resource Security - **Geopolitical Aspect**: Sino-US game remains a long-term core variable affecting global trade and the basic metal market. Although there was a period of relaxation since October this year, the long-term structural competition pattern remains unchanged, bringing continuous uncertainty to the market [2]. - **Economic Deviation**: The weak global manufacturing PMI data deviates from the strong performance of some basic metal prices. The OECD predicts that China's GDP growth rate will drop from 4.7% this year to 4.4% next year, confirming the weak real economy [2]. - **Monetary Environment**: The market highly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy path. Overall, global liquidity will remain relatively loose in the future. The long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit will provide systematic support for commodity prices [4]. - **Resource Dependence Crisis**: China has a very high external dependence on non-ferrous metal minerals. Any supply disturbances in overseas mines will be magnified and quickly transmitted to the price end [6]. - **Low Inventory Effect**: Globally, the exchange inventories of most basic metals are at historically low levels, which weakens the market's buffer capacity against sudden supply-demand changes and increases price volatility [6]. 2. Outlook for the Non-Ferrous Metal Market in 2026: Differentiation and Structural Opportunities 2.1 Copper - **Core Logic**: Tight mine supply is the dominant contradiction, and financial attributes determine price elasticity [9]. - **Supply Side**: Copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the spot TC price index has been low or even negative for nearly 8 - 9 months. Global mine disturbances are frequent, and the supply-demand shortage of copper concentrate is expected to be about 500,000 tons in 2026 [9]. - **Demand Side**: New energy is the core driving force. In 2026, the new energy sector is expected to bring 213,000 tons and 141,000 tons of copper consumption increments to the Chinese and overseas markets respectively [9]. - **Inventory and Balance**: Although the global refined copper inventory as of November 6 is at a five-year high, the fundamental shortage at the mine end will push the price center upward. The current copper price close to 90,000 yuan/ton is expected to break through the 90,000 mark in 2026 [9]. 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Logic**: The "ceiling" of production capacity formed by China's supply-side reform and the new production capacity in Indonesia are the main contradictions, and low inventory amplifies price volatility [12]. - **Supply Side**: China's production capacity has reached the ceiling, and the key variable next year is the progress of Indonesia's new production capacity of about 600,000 tons and power supply. Overseas disturbances intensify the tightness. The global electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.15 million tons [12]. - **Demand Side**: Consumption growth is concentrated in the new energy field, and the consumption growth rate of the transportation sector in 2026 is expected to be 5% [12]. - **Inventory and Balance**: The global inventory is about 1.49 million tons, and the domestic inventory is less than 800,000 tons. A supply gap of 180,000 tons is expected in 2026, maintaining a tight balance [12]. - **Attribute Evolution**: The strategic attribute of aluminum is becoming increasingly prominent, enhancing its financial attribute and increasing its linkage with copper [12]. 2.3 Lead & Zinc - **Zinc**: The core feature is the serious divergence of internal and external market inventories, which creates a historical window for internal and external arbitrage. The growth rate of global zinc concentrate is expected to fall below 4% in 2026. China's zinc ingot is expected to have a surplus of 1.15 million tons in 2026, while overseas may reverse the shortage situation [13]. - **Lead**: It has entered an "internal circulation" cycle dominated by recycled lead, with a proportion of over 50%. The domestic market maintains a tight balance, while overseas may have a slight surplus. China's production is expected to slightly increase from 6.92 million tons to 6.95 million tons in 2026 [14]. 2.4 Nickel & Cobalt - **Nickel**: The primary nickel market remains in surplus, and the supply-demand difference in 2026 is expected to be 46,000 tons. The sufficient supply of nickel pig iron and MHP continues to suppress the nickel price. The future core variables are Indonesia's industrial policies and cost competition among different process routes [17]. - **Cobalt**: The floating quota policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the biggest variable. This mechanism has become an "automatic stabilizer" for the price, giving the cobalt price strong elasticity [17]. 2.5 Tin & Lithium - **Tin**: The core logic is the rigid supply constraint versus the structural growth of demand. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is less than expected, and the grade of overseas tin mines is declining. The global supply gap in 2026 is expected to be 730,000 tons, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous strengthening of the tin price for three years [19]. - **Lithium**: The global supply surplus pattern continues. The concentrated release of medium and low-grade lithium resource production capacity and the maturity of technologies such as lithium extraction from salt lakes lead to a downward shift in the cost center. The lithium price still faces downward pressure in the medium and long term [19]. 3. Summary - **Supply-Driven First Echelon**: Tin, copper, and aluminum have the strongest foundation for a structural bull market [21]. - **Policy/Structural Disturbance Second Echelon**: Cobalt and zinc have significant banded and structural opportunities [21]. - **Surplus Suppression Type**: Nickel, lithium, and lead are under overall pressure, mainly based on the logic of rebound and cost support [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overall, the domestic demand for ethylene glycol in the demand side has declined at a moderate pace. After the liberalization of BIS, the export orders for filament have increased significantly. The polyester demand is expected to remain above 91% in November, and the average monthly load in December is expected to be adjusted from 90% to slightly below 91%. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. However, the coking coal trading in the cost side has weakened, indicating a reduced concern about the cost side, and the price has continued to break through and decline. In the long - term, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of oversupply in supply - demand cannot be reversed. The current expectation of near - end explicit inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability against supply - side accidents has also increased. Therefore, the idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In terms of the downward space, the cash flow of the current coal - based marginal ethylene glycol devices has been compressed below the cost line. Considering the start - up situation of coal - based devices, if the valuation continues to be compressed, it is expected to receive strong support from the supply side around 3700. Specifically, for the 01 contract, short positions or selling call options can be considered above 3900 [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 3650 - 4100 | 16.39% | 34.0% | | PX | 6300 - 7100 | 14.77% | 37.9% | | PTA | 4300 - 4900 | 11.91% | 15.7% | | Bottle Chips | 5400 - 6000 | 9.91% | 13.7% | [4] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ethylene glycol price, for long - position spot exposure, shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 3880 - 3980 can lock in profits and make up for production costs. Buying put options (EG2601P3750) and selling call options (EG2601C3900) with a 50% hedging ratio can prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 3700 - 3750 can lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (EG2601P3750) with a 75% hedging ratio can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [4]. Polyester Daily Table 01 - **Price**: It shows the prices of various polyester - related products on 2025 - 11 - 27, 2025 - 11 - 26, and 2025 - 11 - 20, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester fibers, etc., as well as their daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Spread**: It includes the basis differences of TA, EG, PF, and the month - to - month spreads of PX, TA, EG, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [8][9]. - **Processing Fee**: It shows the processing fees and profits of various products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, naphtha cracking spread, etc., and their daily and weekly changes. It also includes the production and sales rates of polyester products [9]. Core Contradictions - Demand for polyester remains relatively high, with an expected load of over 91% in November and an adjusted average monthly load of slightly below 91% in December. Supply - side device accidents have led to a slowdown in inventory accumulation, but the weakening of coking coal trading in the cost side has reduced cost concerns, and the price has continued to decline. In the long - term, the oversupply situation persists, and the valuation pressure pattern cannot be reversed. The expectation of near - end inventory accumulation has been partially fulfilled, and the anti - risk ability has increased. The idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. The ethylene glycol price is expected to receive support around 3700 [5]. 利多解读 (Likely to be "Positive Interpretations") - Recently, there have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices in the Chinese mainland, involving a total capacity of 1 million tons. Some overseas shutdown devices' restart expectations have also been delayed [6]. 利空解读 (Likely to be "Negative Interpretations") - A new 830,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and it is expected to bring a small additional supply increment in December [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end oil price pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical issues, with a recent downward shift in the price center; the release of the CP November contract price with a decline; a slight inventory reduction of US C3 but still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with a slight increase in supply and strong chemical demand [3]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral to positive, with low expected arrivals and high seasonal开工 of PDH and MTBE [3]. - Negative factors include the downward shift of the oil price center and relatively high domestic valuation [4]. Summary by Directory LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction of LPG is 4000 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.05%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in 3 years is 4.00% [2]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in profits; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and based on order - based procurement, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4000 - 4100 to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2601P4000 put options with a 25% ratio in the range of 30 - 50 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [2]. Industry Data - A large amount of data on prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products are presented, including daily and weekly changes [7]. Price Seasonality - Seasonal charts of various prices such as MB M1, NWE C3 M1, FEI, CP, LPG futures, and LPG cheapest delivery products are provided [9][10][11]. Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, PG - CP, etc. are shown [17][19][20]. Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of monthly spreads such as LPG01 - 02, LPG12 - 01, FEI M1 - M2, etc. are presented [33][34][28]. Ratio Seasonality - Seasonal charts of ratios such as FEI/Brent, MB/WTI, FEI/MOPJ M1, etc. are provided [37][39]. Profit Seasonality - Seasonal charts of profits including LPG import profit - FEI, LPG import profit - CP, PDH profit, and various spot profits are shown [44][45][46]. Freight Seasonality - Seasonal charts of freight from the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are presented [62][63]. Other Seasonality - A seasonal chart of the water level of the Panama Canal - Gatun Lake is provided [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated mention of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, weak coal prices, supply - demand changes in the spot market, the impact of downstream PP on PL, and the rebound of external propane prices leading to continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls in the industrial end driving up spot prices, while negative factors are the lack of significant negative feedback in PDH despite losses and the weak downstream demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1232 and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 0.5581 [1]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (PL2603, sell, 50%, entry range 6100 - 6200) and sell call options (PL2601C6000, sell, 25%, entry range 60 - 80) [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices (PL2603, buy, 25%, entry range 5700 - 5800) and sell put options (PL2601P5700, sell, 25%, entry range 50 - 70) [1]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly mentioned, but there is no actual progress, and coal prices are relatively weak recently [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. This week, supply decreased and demand increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and raising the overall spot price. In Shandong, after device overhauls and some downstream restarts, the spot price rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - The main downstream product PP has sufficient supply. Recently, the compression of the PP - PL price has led to new lows in the PP end, suppressing the space for PL and causing a divergence between PL's futures and spot prices [2]. - The external propane price has rebounded, with the calculated cost at around 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the calculated PDH profit is continuously in the red. Currently, there is no more feedback on overhauls [2]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors: Device overhauls in the industrial end, such as those of Binhua, Haiwei, and Xintai, have led to a rebound in the spot price from the low level [3]. - Negative factors: Although PDH is in a loss state, there is still no significant negative feedback in the short term, and the supply end remains high; the PP downstream is weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with high supply pressure and continuous new lows in the market, and most other downstream products are also in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced propylene [3][5]. 3.4 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream raw material prices: Brent crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel on November 25, 2025, down 0.83 dollars from the previous day and 2.46 dollars from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as WTI, MOPJ, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream propylene prices: On November 25, 2025, the propylene price in East China was 5945 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 yuan from the previous week; the price in Shandong was 6020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan from the previous day and 130 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Downstream prices: On November 25, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week; the price of polypropylene pellets was 6400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Profits: The main refinery profit was 854.72 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 240.83 yuan/ton. Different production methods and products had different profit situations [6]. - Price spreads: Various price spreads such as PL01 - 02, PP01 - PL01, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy attitude. New long positions can be established on dips, and mid - term bottom positions should continue to be held [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, all varieties of treasury bond futures weakened across the board, with the decline intensifying in the afternoon, and TL having the largest decline. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.31%. Open - market reverse repurchase was 21.33 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 9.72 billion yuan [1] 2. Important Information - Six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The US PPI in September increased by 2.6% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.7% [2] 3. Market Judgment - The early - morning rebound of A - shares on this day had a certain suppressing effect on the bond market, but the afternoon decline of A - shares did not benefit the bond market. Rumors of the upcoming implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, with redemption fees still applicable for institutional redemptions within 6 months and even rumors of large - scale redemptions of some funds, led to the intensified decline of the bond market in the afternoon. If the new regulations are implemented, the negative impact will be exhausted. After the futures market closed, the yield of spot bonds dropped significantly, indicating that there were buyers when the yield rose to a certain level. The T contract has filled the lower gap [3] 4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - For TS2603, the price on November 26, 2025, was 102.382, down 0.04 from the previous day, and the contract position decreased by 1156 hands. For TF2603, the price was 105.785, down 0.185, and the contract position decreased by 1621 hands. For T2603, the price was 107.955, down 0.285, and the contract position decreased by 16292 hands. For TL2603, the price was 114.43, down 0.85, and the contract position increased by 4449 hands. Regarding the basis, the TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0033, the TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1056, the T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1013, and the TL basis (CTD) increased by 0.1255. In terms of trading volume, the TS main - contract trading volume increased by 2913 hands, the TF main - contract trading volume decreased by 4983 hands, the T main - contract trading volume decreased by 5363 hands, and the TL main - contract trading volume increased by 15730 hands [4]

股指期货日报 2025年11月26日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指涨跌不一，市场存在分歧 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，除中证1000指数收跌外其余均收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落288.01亿元。期指 方面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC持平，IM缩量下跌。 重要资讯 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | -0.15 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 1.02 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 0.47 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 17833.46 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -288.01 | 核心观点 昨晚美国公布最新PPI数据，核心PPI环比增速低于市场预期，强化市场降息预期，不过由于在数据公布前， 联邦基金利率期货价格显示美联储12月降息概率已高于80%，即市场已提前交易降息预期，因此市场反应相 对平淡。期指基差方面，与现货表现分化，今日现货走势相对较弱的IH、IM贴水收敛，IF、IC则贴水加深， 表明市场存在分歧，多空博弈特征较强。关注今晚将公布的美国PCE物价数据，若超出市场 ...