1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, and the recent increase in Brazil's crushing volume, especially with a sugar - making ratio above 55%, has suppressed international sugar prices. In China, apart from a large amount of imports in recent months, consumption has declined year - on - year, and the expected increase in production in the new crushing season has raised market concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling sugar prices, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5600 - 5650 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR511C5600) at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5450 - 5500 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR511P5400) at 20 - 25 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - High expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons, increased crushing volume and high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, large imports in China, decreased consumption, and expected production increase in the new crushing season are suppressing sugar prices [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: India's 2024/25 crushing season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption in 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol and biodiesel. Trump said Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive again, and Pepsi may follow [5]. - **利空 Factors**: In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased despite less cane input. Analysts expect Brazil's 25/26 crushing season's sugar production to increase by 5% to 46 million tons. Thailand's 24/25 crushing season's production is expected to reach 10.39 million tons. India's early monsoon may lead to a strong production recovery in the 25/26 crushing season. China's sugar imports in July increased significantly, and syrup imports also had some changes. Brazil's mid - southern region had a large increase in sugar production in the first half of August. China's sugar sales and inventory data show some trends [5][6][7][8]. 3.4 Price Data - **Base Difference**: On September 10, 2025, the base differences between different regions and futures contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [9]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices such as SR01 - SR11 and spreads between different contracts had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: Spot prices in regions like Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao, as well as regional spreads, had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [11]. - **Sugar Import Price**: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, and the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar had daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [12][13].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 10, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions gradually disappeared, and a major bearish factor restricting coking coal also faded. On Friday, news of anti - involution emerged again, leading to significant increases in popular varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after a decline, also rebounded. The expected decline in ferroalloy production profit means there is limited incentive for further production increases. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the output in the southern silicon - manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys is gradually improving, with some contract structures changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long - term trading logic lies in the anti - involution expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are expectations of supply - side contraction. The market's long - short logic is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The widening price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese, namely semi - coke and manganese ore, makes it cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400. It is also suggested to lightly go long on the ferrosilicon main contract 11 at around 5450 and the silicon - manganese main contract 01 at around 5700. However, if there is no substantial progress in anti - involution, the risk of a sharp fall after a rise is relatively high [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.74%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 34.5% [3] - Silicon - manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.67%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 29.1% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is planned based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, enterprises can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward trend of ferroalloys is affected by the price trend of coking coal and anti - involution news. The production profit decline and the flat - water season will lead to a decrease in production. The term structure of ferroalloys is improving, while that of coking coal is not. The long - term trading logic is based on anti - involution expectations, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon - manganese**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi - carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton - degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton - degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October, which may affect manganese ore prices and thus the cost of manganese - silicon [6] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The enterprise inventory of ferrosilicon is 66,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon - manganese**: In the long run, the sluggish real - estate market and the decline of the black - related sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon - manganese. The enterprise inventory of silicon - manganese is 160,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.72%, and the demand from the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [7] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: The report provides daily data on ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai [8] - **Silicon - manganese**: The report provides daily data on silicon - manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts from September 3 to September 10, 2025, including data from different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou [9][10] Term Structure and Seasonal Charts - The report includes term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon - manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and silicon - manganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads [11][12][13]

集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 傅小燕（投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1350~1450 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1150~1250 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货早盘开盘后多头抢跑明显，但不敌现货预期疲软，多空胶着，盘整收尾。 截 至收盘，各合约都有不同程度增仓，其中EC2512合约增仓幅度最大，除了反弹的两 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Shanghai nickel futures market continues to fluctuate, with fundamental support still present. Nickel ore production and shipping in the Philippines are not significantly affected by rainfall, and domestic arrival inventories remain high. The new energy sector remains supportive, with tight supply and expected continued strength. Ferronickel prices are also strong, and stainless steel maintains a volatile trend. The report suggests paying attention to the impact of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased export difficulties [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, shortening of the nickel ore quota license period, increasing September interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous de - stocking of stainless steel. Negative factors involve high pure nickel inventories, rising seasonal nickel ore inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, and the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates by South Korea [6] Group 3: Price and Volatility Forecasts Nickel - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.51% and a historical percentile of 0.8% [2] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3] Group 5: Market Data Nickel - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,850 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; Shanghai nickel continuous - first contract is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - second contract is 120,880 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - third contract is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month. Trading volume is 75,006 lots, down 25.20% month - on - month; open interest is 81,612 lots, up 0.96% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 22,304 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is - 710 yuan/ton, down 52.0% month - on - month [7] Stainless Steel - The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,915 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; stainless - steel continuous - first contract is 12,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - second contract is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.19% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - third contract is 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. Trading volume is 115,463 lots, up 5.43% month - on - month; open interest is 123,168 lots, down 0.01% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 98,288 tons, down 0.25% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.29% month - on - month [9] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons compared to the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 221,094 tons, an increase of 3,024 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 918.7 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons; ferronickel inventory is 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10][11]

国债期货日报 2025/09/10 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.348 | 102.39 | -0.042 | TS合约持仓(手） | 73128 | 72585 | 543 | | TF2512 | 105.445 | 105.58 | -0.135 | TF合约持仓(手） | 144218 | 145470 | -1252 | | T2512 | 107.505 | 107.785 | -0.28 | T合约持仓(手） | 230673 | 224582 | 6091 | | TL2512 | 114.87 | 115.76 | -0.89 | TL合约持仓(手） | 153937 | 144317 | 9620 | | TS基差（CTD) | -0.0418 | -0.03 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction lies in the conflict between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are disagreements in far - month pricing without a clear direction, and the destocking ability of the mid - stream during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - For glass, upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The supply - side daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. Normal maintenance continues, and in the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.34% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.2%. The monthly price range of纯碱 is predicted to be 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.7% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures and FG601C1400 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1400 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures and sell FG601P1100 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1100 - 1150 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures and SA601C1500 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1550 - 1600 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures and sell SA601P1200 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1250 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] Group 5: Market Price and Spread Glass - On September 10, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1279, down 10 (- 0.78%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 995, down 35 (- 3.4%); the 01 contract was 1181, down 11 (- 0.92%) [4] - The average price of glass in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1162.4, down 3.6 from the previous day [5] 纯碱 - On September 10, 2025, the price of the 纯碱 05 contract was 1353, down 5 (- 0.37%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1162, up 3 (0.26%); the 01 contract was 1281, up 3 (0.23%) [6] - The market price of heavy 纯碱 in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1186, up 3 from the previous day [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The stock market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend today. The pre - market information of the significant downward revision of US non - farm data had been pre - announced, and the financial market didn't over - react. Overnight US stocks were generally strong, with US technology stocks like Google rising significantly, providing an optimistic tone for A - shares. Coupled with positive domestic technology - related information, technology concepts led the rise again today, but the upward movement was concentrated in heavy - weight stocks, with large - cap indexes outperforming small - cap indexes. The price data announced today didn't significantly exceed expectations. The year - on - year decline in CPI was mainly dragged down by food items, while core CPI showed resilience, and the narrowing of the year - on - year decline in PPI was in line with expectations, so the market reaction was relatively flat. Only the pan - consumer industry oscillated upward after a brief correction. In the short term, the stock market continues. The strategy recommends paying attention to the opportunity of selling call options on the CSI 300 ETF, with the strike price being one or two out - of - the - money levels [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index showed a volatile trend with mixed gains and losses. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.21%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1404.01 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF rose with increasing volume, IH rose with decreasing volume, and IC and IM fell with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - According to the latest data from Goldman Sachs Research Department, in August, global hedge funds' net buying of China reached a new high since September last year, and their gross positions in China reached a two - year high. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly deployed a special rectification campaign against network chaos in the automotive industry. In August, China's CPI turned negative year - on - year by 0.4%, core CPI rebounded to 0.9%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.9% [3]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.26 | 0.54 | - 0.05 | - 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 13.068 | 5.3249 | 13.4597 | 27.5094 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.9016 | 0.055 | - 0.3849 | 2.1363 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.5475 | 9.5887 | 24.7388 | 38.3703 | | Open interest change compared with the previous day (10,000 lots) | 0.7307 | - 0.0093 | 0.1732 | 0.3043 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.13 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.38 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.92 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 19781.23 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 1404.01 | [6]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——累库预期提前，估值供需承压 2025/09/10 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 1、本周计划到港14.33万吨，港口发货不佳，下周一港口库存预计累库3万吨左右，现货流动性预计将逐步放 松。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4600 | 11.05% | 6.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 13.78% | 30.4% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 12.97% | 20.1% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 10.02% | 10.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/10 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 21.53% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年09月10日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 采购管理 | 产品价格无相关性：未来有 未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据 | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 20% | 67000-70000 | | | 生产电池材料的计划，担心 | 生产计划需买入对应生产计 | | | | | | | | 划的期货合约锁定采购成本 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出看跌期权 | 30% | LC2511-P-6800 | | | 导致采购成本上涨的风险 | | | | | 0 | | | 产品价格有相关性：未来有 | | 期货 | 依据采购进度卖出期货主力 | 70% | 依据采购成本 | | | 生产电池材料的计划，担心 | 为防止采 ...