--美联储主席候选人之争进入白热化阶段 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1核心矛盾 贵金属周报 上周贵金属价格继续偏强运行，伦敦现货黄金接近10月份历史高位4380附近，伦敦现货白银则续刷历史新高 至67附近，从K线技术形态看，短期仍未出现拐头信号。周二后美联储降息预期略有回升，主要非农与CPI就 业数据补发，显示美经济下行压力与通胀缓和。另外，上周美联储主席候选人之争继续发酵，集中在哈塞 特、沃什和沃勒之间，不同候选人与特朗普政府的立场关联度依次减弱，这也就意味着对于美联储独立性的 维护能力依次增强，但总体而言，三位候选人皆属于宽货币的鸽派支持者。 11月底以来，白银表现远强于黄金，金银比进一步大幅回落。主要原因在于白银低供给弹性与低库存的现 实，叠加COMEX 2512合约大量交割、白银工业需求刚性、ETF投资需求持续流入（但上周iShares白银ETF 周度流出36.7吨）、绿色新能源与数字AI经济对白银需求的增长预期，以及美国对白银的232矿产调查结果不 确定性引发的进口关税担忧等多重因 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the coking coal and coke market lies in the divergence in coking coal production data, weak replenishment demand from coking enterprises, and the potential for further price cuts in coke. However, with the approaching winter storage, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downward space of the coking coal futures market may be limited. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the driving force for valuation repair may weaken, and end - users can consider selling hedging opportunities at low basis levels. The overall trend is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase [1][11]. - The price ranges are predicted as follows: JM2605 is expected to trade between 1050 - 1198, and J2605 is expected to trade between 1680 - 1768 [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal production data from Fenwei and Steel Union diverge. Steel Union data shows mine production increase and inventory accumulation, while Fenwei data shows production decrease and inventory accumulation. Coking enterprises are less enthusiastic about replenishing inventory due to expected price cuts, and the inventory structure of coking coal continues to deteriorate [1]. - The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal this week exceeded 1500 vehicles per day. The Australian coal price index was stable with a slight increase. The price difference between domestic and international coal is severely inverted, and the import window for seaborne coal is narrowing, so the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports may decline [1]. - The third - round price cut of coke has officially started. The current immediate coking profit is near the break - even point. After the third - round price cut, some coking enterprises are expected to face slight losses. The coking enterprise operating rate decreased slightly due to environmental protection restrictions, and the demand for coke shrank as blast furnace hot metal production decreased rapidly, leading to a marginal deterioration of the coke fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Market Positioning - The price range of JM2605 is predicted to be 1050 - 1198, and that of J2605 is predicted to be 1680 - 1768. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coking coal is 37.95%, with a historical percentile of 74.63%. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of coke is 33.24%, with a historical percentile of 72.10% [9]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - In terms of coking coal supply, the operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 1.31 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily raw coal production increased by 2.91 tons. The average daily clean coal production of 314 coal washing plants decreased by 0.63 tons [9]. - In terms of coking coal inventory, the total sample inventory increased by 29.11 tons week - on - week. The inventory of 523 mine raw coal and 523 mine clean coal increased, while the inventory of 314 coal washing plant clean coal decreased [9]. - In terms of coke supply, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises decreased by 1.11 percentage points week - on - week, and the average daily coke production decreased by 0.98 tons [9]. - In terms of coke inventory, the total sample inventory decreased by 3.32 tons week - on - week. The inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports decreased [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Indonesia plans to impose a 1 - 5% export tax on coal from 2026; relevant departments issued the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)"; the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to expand domestic demand and promote consumption; and market - related departments emphasized the construction of a unified national market and the control of high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects [20]. - **Negative Information**: Some steel products were included in the export license management scope; in November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, and the year - on - year decline of national fixed asset investment from January to November was 2.6% [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On Monday, pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of December 22. - On Tuesday, pay attention to the preliminary value of the annualized quarterly rate of the US core PCE price index in the third quarter. - On Wednesday, pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20. - The 19th session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held from December 22 to 27 [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: From a technical analysis perspective, after getting support near 1000 points, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded rapidly driven by improved sentiment and basis repair. If there is no new driving force in the future, the JM05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1198. The coke trend still follows coking coal, and the J05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1680 - 1768 [25]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal strengthened, and the 1 - 5 positive spread of coke strengthened. The term structure remains in a deep C - shape, indicating an over - supplied industrial pattern [29]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main coking coal futures contract rebounded strongly. The prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi followed the increase, and the 05 basis shrank. Currently, the coking coal basis is moderately high. From the perspective of valuation repair, the rebound space of the coking coal futures market may be larger than that of coke. The spot price of coke has started the third - round price cut, and the futures market rebounded rapidly following coking coal. Currently, the coke futures market has a premium over the dry - quenched coke warehouse receipt after the third - round price cut, and industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the prices of Mongolian coal at ports and some coal types in Shanxi increased following the futures market. With the upcoming third - round price cut of coke, the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink. As the iron ore spot price rebounded following the futures market, the profitability of downstream steel mills decreased slightly [36]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - This week, the minimum customs clearance at the 288 port was about 1491 vehicles, and the maximum was 1637 vehicles, with an average daily customs clearance of over 1500 vehicles. In terms of profit, the Mongolian coal quotation fluctuated following the futures market, and the long - term contract trade profit first decreased and then increased. Recently, the Australian coal price has been firm. Although the spot price of some domestic coking coal has rebounded following the futures market, the price difference between domestic and international coal is still inverted, and the subsequent arrival of coking coal at ports is expected to decline [39][45]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Side Projection - Limited by over - production checks and safety supervision, the production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. According to the seasonal forecast of the operating rate, the average weekly production of coking coal in December is expected to be around 948 - 950 tons. In terms of imports, based on the customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the shipping volume of seaborne coal, the average weekly net import volume of coking coal in December is estimated to be about 240 tons. Due to stricter environmental protection restrictions in some areas recently, the coke production capacity has declined marginally, and the weekly coke production in December is expected to remain at 768 - 770 tons [60][62]. 5.2 Demand - Side Projection - Based on the SMM maintenance data, the estimated daily hot metal production next week is 222.74 tons, and the hot metal production the week after next is expected to be 224.05 tons [65]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, explicit inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal and inventory changes in each week from Week 40, 2025, to Week 53, 2026 [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price will maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout 2026. The price will be relatively strong in the first half of the year due to the structural shortage of domestic raw materials, and the center of gravity may move slightly downward in the second half as the incremental supply is fully transmitted to zinc ingots [1]. - The global zinc mine is entering an expansion cycle (with an expected increase of 290,000 tons), but the domestic market will still be in a tight - balance state in the first half of the year. Driven by the repair of TC, the smelting output will show a trend of "first decreasing and then increasing", with an expected year - on - year growth of over 4.5% for the whole year, and the supply pressure will gradually shift from the mine end to the ingot end [1]. - Although affected by the real estate industry, at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure (UHV, wind power) and high - end manufacturing (new energy vehicle exports) will significantly increase the zinc consumption density, effectively offsetting the decline in real estate. The actual consumption is expected to maintain positive growth and achieve a soft landing [1]. - The core fluctuation range of the SHFE Shanghai zinc main contract in 2026 is predicted to be between 21,500 - 24,800 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc will fluctuate between 2,750 - 3,350 US dollars/ton. In the first half of the year, the domestic market will be stronger than the overseas market, and the price is likely to rise. In the second half, with the arrival of imported ores, the increase in TC will drive smelters to release production. Coupled with the potential drag from the real estate completion end, supply - demand pressure will gradually emerge, and the price center of gravity may decline under pressure [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2025, zinc prices fluctuated widely due to repeated macro - expectations and mismatches in industrial supply - demand rhythms. In Q1, the shortage of mines supported the price increase. In Q2, trade frictions and the strong US dollar led to a significant price correction. In Q3, the supply - demand mismatch between domestic and overseas markets led to a resistance - style upward trend with the overseas market stronger than the domestic one [3]. - In Q4, the structural contradiction in the global zinc market reached an extreme. The market shifted from unilateral gambling to cross - market arbitrage. The large gap between domestic and overseas inventories opened the export profit window for Chinese zinc ingots. The export - driven marginal inventory reduction became the core variable affecting price fluctuations, and the market established a pattern of re - balance through exports [5]. Chapter 3: Supply Side 3.1 Zinc Concentrate - In 2025, global zinc mine supply recovered. The annual output is expected to reach 12.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. In 2026, the output is expected to continue to grow by 2.27% to 12.61 million tons [12]. - Overseas mine production is growing steadily, driven by the resumption of old capacities and the ramping - up of new mines. Key mining enterprises such as Glencore, Ivanhoe Mines, and Teck Resources have good production performance. In 2026, the global new zinc mine increment is about 290,000 tons, and the market will be in a tight - balance state [14][15]. - The overall cost center of global zinc mines has shifted upward. The 90 - percentile line (about $2,400 - $2,550/ton) is considered a long - term "price bottom". If the zinc price falls below this line, about 10% of high - cost mines will face cash - flow losses and trigger passive production cuts [17]. - In 2025, domestic zinc concentrate supply was sufficient in general, but production was affected by environmental and safety inspections at the end of the year. In 2026, new and resumed projects are expected to contribute about 60,000 tons of output (excluding Huoshaoyun). The Huoshaoyun lead - zinc mine needs attention regarding the commissioning of supporting smelters [22]. 3.2 Smelting End - From 2024 to the first half of 2025, the global zinc smelting industry was in a difficult situation due to the extreme shortage of mine supply. In the second half of 2025, with the supplement of imported ores and the increase in TC, domestic smelters' production willingness was positive. The cumulative zinc ingot output from January to October was 5.686 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the annual output is expected to be 5.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [35]. - In 2026, the long - term benchmark TC is expected to rise significantly. Domestic smelting capacity can be released with high elasticity, but the supply pressure is expected to be less than that in 2025 [35]. - For overseas smelters, high and volatile energy costs in Europe are a major risk. Other regions such as South Korea, Japan, and Canada are expected to maintain high and stable operating rates. Globally, the refined zinc output is expected to grow by 3% to 14.12 million tons in 2026, indicating a gradual entry into the inventory accumulation cycle [38]. 3.3 Import and Export and Internal - External Price Ratio - In 2025, the zinc import window was mostly in a deep - loss state, especially in the second half of the year. From January to October, China's cumulative refined zinc imports were 2.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.6%. The reason is the difference in the fundamentals of domestic and overseas markets, with overseas smelters having difficulty in restoring production due to high costs [39]. - In the future, the repair of the price ratio may be a prerequisite for the reversal of TC. With the increase in overseas mine supply and the resumption of smelter production, the shortage of LME zinc will be alleviated, the premium will decline, the price structure will turn to Contango, and the SHFE - LME price ratio will rise, narrowing the import loss [40][41]. Chapter 4: Demand Side - In 2026, China's refined zinc consumption is expected to show a slight increase of 0.5% - 1.5%, and the demand side is expected to be more resilient than the market's concerns about the drag from the real estate industry, achieving a soft landing [43]. 4.1 Real Estate - In 2025, real estate indicators such as new construction, construction, and completion areas all declined. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to drag down the zinc market. The new construction area is expected to maintain a negative growth of - 10% to - 15%, and the decline in the completion area is expected to narrow significantly to about - 10%. The direct drag on zinc consumption is expected to be about - 2.3% to - 2.7% [47][48]. 4.2 Infrastructure - In 2026, infrastructure investment will benefit from the "15th Five - Year Plan" and is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth of 6.8%. UHV grid construction will be a major highlight, and the demand for high - quality hot - dip galvanized pipes will increase significantly, making the infrastructure sector a key factor in stabilizing the demand base [50]. 4.3 Automobile - In 2025, the Chinese automobile market grew strongly, especially in terms of exports and new energy vehicle penetration. In 2026, although the new energy vehicle purchase tax will be reduced from full exemption to half exemption, the decline in battery costs and price competition among car companies will offset the impact of the policy. The output of new energy vehicles is expected to grow by 22.0%. The high - growth of automobile exports will reshape the zinc consumption structure, as export - oriented vehicles have a higher demand for zinc [52][53][54]. 4.4 Home Appliances - In 2026, the home appliance sector is expected to show a stable growth in zinc consumption, with an expected growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0%. This is mainly due to policy - driven replacement demand, the lagging dividend of real - estate completion, and the increasing demand for anti - corrosion materials in emerging markets [59][60]. 4.5 Photovoltaic and Emerging Fields - In 2026, although the growth rate of new photovoltaic installations is expected to decline to 18.0%, the absolute increment is still high. The penetration rate of Zn - Al - Mg alloy - coated brackets will further increase, and the expansion of application scenarios will ensure that the photovoltaic sector continues to contribute to zinc consumption [69]. 4.6 Downstream High - Frequency Demand Indicators - Various downstream high - frequency demand indicators such as galvanized sheet coil inventory, production, and zinc downstream consumption index show certain seasonal trends, which reflect the real - time demand situation in the zinc market [75][77]. 4.7 Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory was at a historical low, and in the second half, the social inventory began to accumulate, but the accumulation rate was lower than expected. This is mainly due to stronger - than - expected demand, the integration of zinc alloy smelting capacity, and the opening of the export window. In 2026, factors affecting inventory include the recovery of the internal - external price ratio and the increase in overseas smelter production due to the rise in TC [79]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 5.1 Global Zinc Concentrate Balance - In 2026, the global zinc concentrate supply is expected to be 12.6094 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.27%, and the demand is expected to be 12.6342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The market will be in a tight - balance state [81]. 5.2 Global Refined Zinc Balance - In 2026, the global refined zinc output is expected to be 14.1215 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.01%, and the consumption is expected to be 13.9837 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The market will turn from a shortage to a surplus [82]. 5.3 China's Refined Zinc Balance - In 2026, China's refined zinc output is expected to be 7.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.55%. The net import is expected to decrease by 100%. The apparent consumption is expected to be 7.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%, and the actual consumption is expected to be 7.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.00%. The supply - demand surplus is expected to decrease by 8.92% [83].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the plastic industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on polyethylene (PE) [1][2] - It assesses the current market situation, provides trading strategies, and forecasts future trends Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The core driver of the current decline is the continuous pessimism in the spot market, leading to a negative cycle of price drops, weak sales, inventory accumulation, and further price drops [2] - Although PE demand is entering the off - season, supply pressure may ease due to increased device maintenance and potential production shifts, limiting the further decline of the futures market [2] - In the short - term, the space for further decline in the PE market is limited, but in the long - term, the large - scale production of non - standard products next year may suppress LLDPE prices [10][11] Group 4: Chapter 1 - Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The spot market's weakness drags down the futures market, but fundamental improvements in supply may limit further declines [2][10] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The short - term decline space may be limited, with the price range for L2605 between 6200 - 6500; recommend holding short positions but not adding new ones [13] - Arbitrage strategy: Short - term attention on narrowing the L - P spread; two previous L - P spread narrowing strategies, one to be closed next week, the other stopped out after the holiday [16] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when product inventory is high, short plastic futures and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy plastic futures and sell put options to lock in procurement costs [17] Group 5: Chapter 2 - This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Shabic's Jubail plant outage (7.8 million tons of PE), Luqing's linear device shutdown due to profit issues, and Yulong's planned production shift of its full - density second - line to HDPE [23] - Bearish information: BASF's 500,000 - ton full - density plant is expected to start production by the end of the year [19] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - No important events are expected next week [20] Group 6: Chapter 3 - Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The PE futures market continues to decline; capital flow: 01 - contract positions decline, 05 - contract positions rise rapidly, and the net short positions of major profitable seats decrease slightly [25] - Basis structure: The spot price decline drives the futures down, and the basis weakens further. As of Friday, the basis in North China is - 90 yuan/ton, in East China is - 20 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton [29] - Spread structure: Due to the low valuation of the 01 - contract and approaching delivery, short - term positive arbitrage opportunities emerge [33] Group 7: Chapter 4 - Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, production profits of all production lines are compressed [36] Group 8: Chapter 5 - Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In December, the inventory reduction is limited. Supply increases due to limited planned maintenance, increased production capacity, and potential import growth; demand weakens as the agricultural film peak season ends [45] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PE operating rate is 83.86% (- 0.25%). More devices are under maintenance this week, and several new devices are expected to start production soon [51] 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - PE imports from the US may decrease, but overall imports are expected to increase slightly at the end of this year and early next year. PE exports continue to grow [60] 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 44.3% (- 0.55%), and all major downstream sectors show a downward trend, indicating a clear entry into the off - season [68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a stage of divergence between "current shortage and expected surplus." The low inventory and cost - loss bottom of secondary lead limit the downside, but without new consumption drivers and with a confirmed long - term surplus, the price will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [3] - In the short - term, the sharp increase in LME inventory eases the overseas squeeze risk and puts pressure on LME lead. In the domestic market, the low inventory leads to a "reluctance to sell" sentiment, but the upside pressure level is difficult to break through [7] - In the long - term, the core contradiction lies in the mismatch between the profit - repair cycle of the secondary lead industry and the downstream demand recession cycle. If the downstream lithium - battery substitution is faster than the supply clearance, the lead price center will move down in the long run [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Strong current situation: Domestic lead ingot social inventory and smelter inventory have both reached 15 - month lows, offsetting the year - end weak consumption. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with primary lead production increasing after maintenance and secondary lead production decreasing due to raw material shortages and environmental protection [3] - Weak expectations: The market expects a supply surplus in 2026, with overseas supply growth exceeding demand growth [3] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: Range operation (buy low and sell high). Buy long positions in the range of 16,750 - 16,800 with a stop - loss at 16,600, and take profit and reverse to short positions around 17,100 [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage (long SHFE and short LME) [9] - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options. Sell put options with an exercise price of 16500 and call options with an exercise price of 17300 [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17400 to hedge against price drops [10] - For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16500 to hedge against price increases [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Supply disruptions intensify as the Australian Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter's union votes for industrial action, and the weakening US dollar provides a valuation - repair window for non - ferrous metals [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: A sharp increase in LME inventory and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16725 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the average price of recycled lead is 16775 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [13] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) on December 22; monitor whether the lead ingot social inventory will show an inflection point of accumulation due to year - end account closing [13] - **International**: The Christmas holiday in Europe and America on December 25 may cause abnormal market fluctuations; follow the progress of the strike at the Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16880 yuan/ton this week. Profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the monthly - spread structure of Shanghai lead maintains a C - structure [15][17] - **International market**: As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead was at 1973 US dollars/ton. The LME lead maintains a C - structure [20][38] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between lead - concentrate monthly production and processing fees [43] 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Examine the import - profit and loss and import volume of lead concentrates, as well as the seasonal patterns of refined - lead and lead - battery imports and exports [45] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual consumption [50] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Examine the monthly production of lead concentrates, electrolytic lead, and secondary refined lead, as well as the seasonal patterns of global lead - mine and refined - lead production [52][54][59] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of lead - battery开工率, exports, and imports, and the inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers [61][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The recent weakening of the futures market, while the spot market remains stable, is mainly due to the loose supply - demand of propylene itself and the continuous suppression from the PP end. Short - term policy news may drive valuation repair, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual improvement of the fundamentals [2]. - The near - term trading is affected by the overall loose fundamentals and the weak PP trend. The long - term outlook is bearish due to expected new production capacity, the imbalance between PP terminal demand and supply growth, and cost - side pressure [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment and policy disturbances: The recent market is influenced by "anti - involution" news, leading to a short - term low - level rebound of some chemical products. The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1]. - Stable spot supply - demand: This week, the overall supply - demand gap changed little. On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted and Jinhai Chemical had maintenance, with little change in overall production and capacity utilization. On the demand side, there was a slight increase. In the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased, causing a slight price decline [1]. - Suppression from major downstream PP: PP supply is abundant, and the price spread between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk. The weak PP price continues to suppress the propylene market. Short - term "anti - involution" may cause a phased rebound in the futures market, mainly for sentiment repair [1]. - PDH profit pressure: The price of propane in the international market remains strong. The PDH industry is in a continuous loss state, and attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback caused by profit contraction [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the PL03 price range at 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is still weakly fluctuating, and it may rebound slightly due to some macro factors, but the short - term expectation is a weakly fluctuating trend. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance [15]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - Basis strategy: The basis is expected to shrink as the spot price weakened slightly this week while the futures market was fluctuating [16]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider expanding the PP - PL spread on dips and the PL/PG ratio on dips, but stay on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to PP unit maintenance [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Propylene price range forecast: The price of propylene is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1319, and the historical percentage of volatility in the past 3 years is 0.7378 [19]. - Hedging strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Six departments issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of new and existing coal development projects and eliminate backward production capacity and processes. Geopolitical tensions may support oil prices [22]. - **Negative information**: Some PDH units under maintenance will restart, and the PDH operating rate has returned to a relatively high level of 75%. The PP market remains in a state of high supply [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On December 22, China's December LPR will be announced. On December 23, the revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in Q3 will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic market**: The PL03 contract fluctuated this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net long positions of profitable seats, foreign investors decreased slightly, and the net short positions of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, the daily - line chart shows a downward trend, suppressed by the middle Bollinger Band. In the short - term, it fluctuated in the range of 5,650 - 5,800 [25]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared with last week. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - **Upstream profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 614 yuan/ton (- 31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 472 yuan/ton (+ 29). The operating rate at the cracking end changed little [31]. - **Mid - stream profit**: The propane cracking profit declined significantly, and the profitability of LPG cracking decreased. The PDH profit based on FEI was - 289 yuan/ton (- 46), and that based on CP was - 431 yuan/ton (+ 122). The PDH industry remained in a loss state [32]. - **Down - stream profit**: The price spreads between PP拉丝/PP powder and propylene rebounded slightly. The profit of the chlorohydrin method for propylene oxide decreased. The overall loss of acrylonitrile was still large. The profit of acrylic acid weakened. The profit of butanol was compressed, and the profit of octanol recovered at a low level but was still under pressure. The profit of phenol - acetone weakened [34]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The price spread between China and South Korea for propylene has been stable recently. The CFR China price is 740 US dollars (- 5) [49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market - This week, supply increased and demand decreased slightly in the Shandong market, and the spot price declined. The increase in supply mainly came from the复产 of PDH units, and the decrease in demand was due to the maintenance of Jineng and Yulong in the PP sector [51]. 5.2 Market Supply and Projection - This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall operating rate of propylene was 74.11% (- 0.1%), still at a high level. Guangzhou Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton steam cracking unit restarted, and Jinhai Chemical's 210,000 - ton steam cracking unit was under maintenance [54]. 5.3 Demand and Projection - This week, the price spreads between PP granules/powder and propylene rebounded slightly, and the operating rate of the granule end remained stable. The price spread of PP powder also rebounded slightly but was still at a low level, and the number of maintenance units increased. For other downstream products, the price of propylene oxide declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of acrylonitrile changed little. The operating rate of butanol and octanol increased. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid was at a phased high. The production of phenol - acetone changed due to unit restarts and maintenance. The demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the复产 and increased load of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [63][78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed a volatile and weakening trend. The core logic guiding the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, the industry currently shows a feature of "weak supply and weak demand". The polysilicon production has a downward trend, and the downstream silicon wafer, cell, and component production is also under pressure. The polysilicon inventory remains at a recent high, and the terminal demand in the component bidding market is weak. It is expected that the weak - balance state of the fundamentals will continue [3]. - In terms of trading sentiment, the market has reacted to platform companies, and subsequent actual implementation actions need attention. The subsequent trading logic is recommended to be mainly based on the technical logic supported by price trends and volume - energy changes [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamental factors**: The industry shows "weak supply and weak demand". Supply - side production expansion has slowed down, downstream production is under pressure, inventory is high, and the component bidding market is weak [3]. - **Trading logic**: Near - end trading logic (before the end of the year) focuses on warehouse receipt registration and supply - demand side reduction and shutdown. Distant - end trading logic (after the end of the year) involves observing the progress of "anti - involution" policies and the implementation of new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026, as well as downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [5][6]. 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Polysilicon futures price range**: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% over three years [8]. - **Risk management strategies**: Different strategies are proposed for various scenarios such as sales, procurement, and inventory management of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and cells, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% to 40% [8]. Chapter 2: Market Information - On December 12, a 1 - gigawatt photovoltaic power generation project in Wusu City, Xinjiang, started an open tender for engineering procurement and construction (EPC), with a construction period of no more than 360 calendar days [9]. - On December 17, SEG Solar, a US - based solar component manufacturer, started the construction of a 3 - gigawatt monocrystalline silicon and silicon wafer production base in Indonesia, which is expected to expand to 5 gigawatts and be put into operation in Q3 2026. The company has a cumulative photovoltaic component shipment of over 6 gigawatts and a global solar cell installation capacity of 5 gigawatts [9]. - On December 18, *ST Haiyuan announced that its subsidiary would purchase a second - hand 150MW TOPCON photovoltaic component production line and upgrade it to a 300MW production line [9]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Market review**: The polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 60,521 yuan/ton this week, up 4.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was 362,864 lots, down 19.17% week - on - week, and the open interest was 247,847 lots, down 21,847 lots week - on - week. The PS2602 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, down 575 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 20 lots week - on - week [13]. - **Technical analysis**: The polysilicon futures price ran above the 5 - day moving average, showing a "long - position increasing and price rising" feature. It reached the upper edge of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band showed a volatile trend [14]. - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon were in a volatile state. The option open interest PCR was in a volatile and strengthening state, indicating a rising bearish sentiment in the market [16]. - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed an increasing sign [18]. - **Spread structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure showed a phased back structure, and the basis of the main contract showed a volatile and weakening trend [20][23]. 3.2 Futures and Price Data - **Polysilicon prices**: The prices of N - type polysilicon materials such as N - type re - feeding materials, N - type dense materials, etc., showed little change, with only a slight increase in N - type re - feeding materials by 0.19% week - on - week [26]. - **Silicon wafer prices**: The silicon wafer price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week, and the prices of some N - type silicon wafers also increased [26]. - **Cell and component prices**: The prices of some cell and component products showed small changes, with the prices of some Topcon cells increasing by 3.53% - 6.12% week - on - week [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is stable. The spot profit of polysilicon shows a stable trend, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [27]. - From the futures perspective, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 39.89% under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components [27]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with SMM - reported production at 25,000 tons, down 0.40% week - on - week and 7.75% month - on - month, and Baichuan - reported production at 26,330 tons, down 0.53% week - on - week and 7.35% month - on - month. The Baichuan - reported weekly operating rate was 41%, down 0.0238 week - on - week and 8.89% month - on - month [35]. - **Overseas production**: Overseas polysilicon monthly production and operating rate data are provided, showing certain trends [37]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory was 512,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week - on - week but an increase of 2.08% month - on - month. The inventory of production enterprises increased, while that of silicon wafer enterprises decreased [40]. 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production and inventory**: The domestic silicon wafer weekly production was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week and 16.51% month - on - month. The weekly inventory was 21.5GW, down 7.73% week - on - week but up 14.85% month - on - month [43]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly net export of domestic silicon wafers are provided, showing seasonal trends [46]. 5.3 Cell Supply - **Production and inventory**: The monthly production and operating rate data of domestic cells are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 9.44GW, up 4.08% week - on - week but down 7.54% month - on - month [50][53]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly export of domestic photovoltaic cells are provided [52]. 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - **Production and inventory**: The monthly production and operating rate data of photovoltaic components are provided, showing seasonal trends. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 31.2GW, up 2.63% week - on - week and 2.97% month - on - month [56][59]. - **Export**: Data on the monthly net export of photovoltaic components are provided [58]. 5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 4,322.84MW, up 162.03% week - on - week and 439.36% month - on - month, and the winning bid average price was 0.76 yuan/watt, up 2.70% week - on - week and 5.56% month - on - month [61]. 5.6 Installation and Application - Data on the monthly new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaics, green power generation, and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power are provided, showing seasonal trends [64][67].

——基本面驱动有限 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 基本面支撑有限，淡季来临需求端有进一步走弱预期，碱厂库存偏高；估值上，液氯价格中性，氯碱利润虽 有下滑但产量偏高，供应压力持续 。 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱。 南华期货烧碱产业周报 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 30 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the price trends of softwood pulp and offset printing paper are expected to be described as "low recovery" and "weak stabilization" respectively. The price center of softwood pulp is expected to move slightly upward, while the price of offset printing paper is expected to remain weak and stable, mainly supported by costs [5]. - Overall, the futures prices of pulp and offset printing paper will fluctuate. In the medium - term, low - buying opportunities can be considered for pulp futures, and high - selling opportunities can be considered for the near - month contracts of offset printing paper [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Trend Forecast - In 2026, the supply expansion trend of softwood pulp will slow down, and the demand is expected to stabilize and rebound. However, the market sentiment is limited, and there are still upper limits, with inventory pressure needing continuous attention. The price of double - offset paper is expected to be mainly supported by costs and remain weak and stable [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Outlook - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices will fluctuate. Mid - term, consider low - buying for pulp futures and high - selling for near - month offset printing paper contracts [8]. 3.1.3 Risk Points - Risks include changes in macro - policies, significant changes in international trade situations, large - scale shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills, and restrictions on some supply and transportation channels [9]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Spot Price Review of Softwood Pulp and Double - Offset Paper - Softwood pulp spot prices declined this year, with a short - term increase in January - February due to domestic supply gaps. After reaching a high of about 6617 yuan/ton in early February, prices dropped by 17.84% by the end of November. Recent slight rebounds are due to traders' reluctance to sell and spot enterprise regulation. The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp prices has fallen to a reasonable range. Double - offset paper prices also declined after a slight increase in Q1, dropping by 13.02% from 5087.5 yuan/ton in mid - March to 4425.0 yuan/ton at the end of November, due to weak demand and over - supply [10][12][16]. 3.2.2 Futures Price Trend Review of Pulp and Offset Printing Paper - Pulp futures reached a high of 6204 yuan/ton in February, then declined, with a temporary halt in the decline in Q3 due to North American pulp mill maintenance expectations. After reaching a low of 4750 yuan/ton in mid - October, prices reversed and rose due to downstream paper mills' price increases, positive macro - sentiment, and news of a US pulp mill shutdown. Offset printing paper futures were listed in September, fluctuated in the first month, rose to 4360 yuan/ton due to paper mills' price support, and then dropped to 3980 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.72% [19]. 3.2.3 Continued Weak Overall Demand - Weak demand is a major factor for the weak pulp and double - offset paper prices. China's softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption in the first 10 months was 707.3 tons, up 2.84% year - on - year, with only 6, 7, 9 months above the average. European consumption of bleached softwood pulp was the lowest in a decade. Paper industry's start - up rates were low, with softwood pulp downstream demand improving slightly but still weak. Double - offset paper demand was even weaker, with the apparent consumption in the first 10 months at 666.7 tons, down 9.87% year - on - year [25]. 3.2.4 Supply Growth Slowed but Pressure Persisted - Pulp supply growth slowed this year, but the overall stock was still high. China's softwood pulp imports had low growth but a high base and increased since August. Paper pulp production increased significantly after mid - September, with a 17.43% year - on - year increase in early December. Global pulp shipments were relatively high, and those to China were lower than in 2023 but higher than last year. Double - offset paper's start - up rate was at a low, but production increased in the second half of the year, and the supply pressure remained due to new capacity [30][32]. 3.2.5 High Inventory and Low Profit - High inventory suppressed pulp and paper prices. China's pulp port inventory was above 200 tons for a long time this year, dropping to 199.3 tons by December 19. Double - offset paper inventory also increased, with both production enterprise and social inventories above the average. Most small and medium - sized enterprises in the softwood pulp and double - offset paper markets were in a loss - making state, with negative gross margins for Chinese softwood pulp since April last year [34][37]. 3.3 Core Focus Points 3.3.1 Macro Changes - Pulp is significantly affected by macro - factors. Interest rate cuts may reduce import costs. Policy changes and tariff adjustments can also impact the industry. For example, if Brazil's export tariff exemption to the US is removed, it may increase China's pulp supply pressure [41]. 3.3.2 Inventory Reduction - High inventory is a key factor suppressing pulp and paper prices. Pulp inventory has declined recently, and the reduction in available registered warehouse receipts due to the adjustment of delivery standards has provided some support to futures prices [42]. 3.3.3 Shutdown/Resumption of Pulp and Paper Mills - Shutdowns or resumptions of pulp and paper mills can affect supply and market sentiment. For example, Domtar's permanent shutdown of the Crofton pulp mill had a positive impact on futures prices [44]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Valuation: Relatively Reasonable - Pulp futures valuation is relatively reasonable, with the basis fluctuating and the number of warehouse receipts at a historical low. Offset printing paper futures valuation is currently weak, but the rising basis provides some support at the bottom. The volatility of both pulp and offset printing paper futures is expected to remain low in 2026 [45][47][50]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Stabilization - Pulp demand is expected to stabilize and rebound in 2026, with the "14th Five - Year Plan" promoting economic growth and the narrowing price spread between softwood and hardwood pulp potentially increasing softwood pulp demand. Double - offset paper demand is expected to be weak, with factors such as the decline in textbook demand and the popularity of paperless office, but policies like the "National Reading Promotion Regulations" may bring some positive effects [52][57]. 3.4.3 Supply: Pressure Converging - In 2026, the supply pressure of softwood pulp is expected to converge, with limited new capacity growth. Double - offset paper supply pressure remains due to continuous new capacity investment in recent years. Overall, the supply - demand situation of softwood pulp in 2026 is expected to be slightly better than this year, while double - offset paper supply and demand are expected to remain weak and stable [59][61][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the polyester production growth rate is expected to gradually slow down, but the demand growth rate is still estimated to reach around 4.5%, maintaining resilience. The terminal weaving orders have declined comprehensively, and the demand negative feedback will gradually spread upstream. The polyester load is expected to decline from late December, with the monthly average polyester load in January - March estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% respectively. In the off - season, the demand side is difficult to drive prices upward [1]. - For MEG in 2026, the main trend will return to a pattern of oscillating and bottom - grinding. With the successive launch of new production capacities, high - level operation and high valuation are difficult to maintain. After the inventory accumulation expectation, the valuation has been rapidly compressed. Although the static supply - demand balance has improved, the cost side may bring additional negative factors. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation to clear marginal production capacities, and the "reversal" may depend on macro - narrative drivers [1][19]. - PTA's production cut since the fourth quarter of 2025 has exceeded market expectations, alleviating the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, there are plans to launch two PX production facilities with a total capacity of 5 million tons, expected to be put into operation after the third quarter, while PTA is not expected to have new capacity launches. In the first half of 2026, PTA's supply is expected to be tight against downstream demand, but the final inventory reduction depends on PTA's production cut intensity. PX's supply - demand pattern is favorable, and it is expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall. However, before the upward driver appears, there may be a phased correction [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In Q1 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and weakening supply - demand patterns. In January, prices oscillated at a high level; in February, they rebounded slightly and then fell; in March, they were in low - level consolidation [3]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once hit a low of 3956 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The geopolitical events in June led to price fluctuations [4]. - In Q3 2025, the "anti - involution" sentiment affected prices. The price reached a high of 4580 yuan/ton and then oscillated [4]. - In Q4 2025, MEG's valuation was continuously compressed with inventory accumulation and weak cost, and the price showed an oscillating downward trend [4][5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In Q1 2025, PTA prices mainly fluctuated with the cost, oscillating between 4700 - 5350 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q2 2025, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. The price once dropped to 4016 yuan/ton and then rebounded [9]. - In Q3 2025, PTA prices oscillated widely between 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton under the influence of cost and macro factors [10]. - In Q4 2025, PTA prices lacked a core driver after a rebound, oscillating narrowly between 4550 - 4800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - In 2026, MEG will be in an oscillating and bottom - grinding pattern. The short - term weak pattern will continue, with port inventory expected to reach over 1.1 million tons in Q1 2026. The demand negative feedback will spread upstream, and the cost side remains weak [19][20]. - The "anti - involution" as a macro - mainline trading focus may repeatedly dominate the commodity market. The risk points for upward rebound mainly include unexpected reduction in large - scale production facilities, macro - policy benefits, and significant cost increase [23]. 3.2.2 PTA - PTA's production cut since Q4 2025 has alleviated the PX - TA structural contradiction. In 2026, PX has new capacity launch plans, while PTA has none. In H1 2026, PTA supply is tight against downstream demand, and PX is expected to be in a favorable supply - demand pattern, prone to rising and difficult to fall [2][26]. - In the near - term, the negative feedback from the terminal will spread upstream, and PX's valuation may correct. In the long - term, PX is expected to maintain an upward - prone pattern, and PTA's processing fee may be further repaired, but the supply - benefit dynamic balance will be the long - term main logic [28][29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: MEG Industry Analysis 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - China's MEG production capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - supply. In 2025, new capacity launches led to inventory accumulation expectations and a decline in valuation [33]. - Currently, the total MEG production capacity in the Chinese mainland is 30.275 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for 63% and coal - based capacity accounting for 37%. The production efficiency of coal - based MEG has improved, but it is expected to face pressure in 2026 [33][34]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - In 2025, China's MEG production increased mainly due to the increase in operating rates. However, after the launch of new capacity in September, the valuation was under pressure, and the production profit of coal - based MEG was compressed in Q4 [36]. - In terms of product switching, some enterprises switched production between EO and EG based on production efficiency. In 2026, under the background of loose supply - demand, the MEG load is expected to decrease year - on - year [37]. - In 2025, the MEG import volume increased year - on - year, and the import source concentration increased. If India's anti - dumping policy is implemented, the global MEG logistics pattern may be reconstructed [48][49]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In Q1 2026, MEG is expected to have a slight over - supply, with an estimated cumulative over - supply of about 350,000 tons. In Q2, if the maintenance plans are implemented as scheduled and the polyester demand is in the peak season, there may be a supply - demand gap of about 300,000 tons. The annual demand growth rate is estimated at around 4.5% [57]. 3.4 Chapter 5: PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - China's PX production capacity expansion has paused since 2024, while PTA has maintained a high - speed growth trend. The PX supply - demand pattern is relatively tight, while PTA has an over - supply problem, and the clearing of backward production capacities and the increase in exports are the main focuses for improving the supply - demand structure [59]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA's processing fee showed significant fluctuations. In Q4, due to production cuts, the processing fee was repaired, but in the long - term, it is expected to remain under pressure. In 2026, the supply - benefit dynamic balance is expected to be maintained, and the processing fee's upward space is limited [63][64]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - In 2025, PTA exports decreased year - on - year, mainly due to the new production capacity in Turkey. The export reduction was partially transferred to other countries [67]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, the polyester load is expected to decline seasonally. In Q1, PTA is expected to have a slight over - supply of 100,000 - 150,000 tons, and in Q2, there will be a large supply - demand gap. The actual inventory reduction depends on the restart plans of PTA production facilities [74][75]. 3.5 Chapter 6: Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - In 2025, polyester production increased by 7.4% year - on - year, and the production capacity growth rate slowed down. Currently, the terminal orders have declined, and the polyester demand load is expected to decline from late December. In Q1 2026, the polyester load is estimated at 89%, 84%, and 89.5% in January - March respectively [77]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4% year - on - year, while textile and clothing consumption maintained a low - speed growth. The export demand was affected by international situations, with the growth rate decreasing in the second half of the year [98][103].