——锂矿库存偏紧，上方空间略有想象 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场运行态势震荡走强，符合之前预期。展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的核心驱动逻辑将聚 焦于这些方面："国内锂矿紧张程度"、"十一月份枧下窝复产情况"和"下游11月份排产节奏"，上述因 素将主导后续市场情绪。 南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 锂矿端，若国内可流通的锂精矿库存持续维持低位，那么市场原料端的紧张格局将有进一步加深的可能性， 并通过产业链传导逐步推升碳酸锂价格；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝 复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求 端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸 锂的需求韧性；若下游11月排产延续高景气度，锂盐需求将维持强势格局，进而反向加剧锂矿的供需错配情 况。此外，从 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current dominant logic of polysilicon futures price trends focuses on whether the photovoltaic storage platform can be established in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and whether photovoltaic policies can be effectively and timely introduced [1] - The short - term trading mainline of the current market revolves around "whether the storage platform will be established in November", and will gradually shift to the expectation game of "concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November". It is necessary to be vigilant against the disturbance of various false information to market sentiment during the policy or node vacuum period [2] - The polysilicon market is still under the double pressure of "high inventory + weak demand", showing a generally bearish pattern [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors affecting polysilicon futures prices are the potential establishment of a photovoltaic storage platform in November, the pressure of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November, and the introduction of photovoltaic policies. The market rumor suggests that the establishment of the photovoltaic storage platform has been postponed from mid - October to November, and as November approaches, the PS2511 contract may face significant closing pressure if long - positions lack the willingness to take over [1] - The current market shows characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand". The supply of upstream polysilicon in the photovoltaic industry remains stable but there is no obvious inventory reduction. On the demand side, although the winning bid scale of components has increased week - on - week, the winning bid price has decreased. Long - term demand depends on the 2026 photovoltaic policies to be introduced by the state in the fourth quarter and whether the grid - connected electricity price of terminal photovoltaics can rise [2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Positioning of the market**: Observe the basis strategy; under the premise of low volatility, buy PS2512 - C - 58000 and PS2512 - P - 49000 [8] - **Review of recent strategies**: Futures, arbitrage, and option trading positions proposed on October 18, 2025, have all been closed [8] 1.3 Industrial Operation Recommendations - **Price prediction of polysilicon futures**: The support level is 47,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) is 83.6% [9] - **Risk management strategies**: Different hedging strategies and entry ratios are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management [9][11] - **Trend judgment and strategy suggestions**: The trend is expected to be wide - range oscillation. The oscillation range is 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, the low - level range is 47,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, and the high - level range is 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to go long on the PS2601 contract at the low - level range and go short at the high - level range; the monthly spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage on PS2601 - PS2605 [10] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - On October 24, the "14th Five - Year Plan" proposed to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industrial clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy [12] 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - From October 27 - 30, the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held; on October 31, China's official manufacturing PMI for October will be released [18] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Market review and technical analysis**: The weighted index contract of polysilicon closed at 52,045 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The trading volume was 289,188 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 29.56%, and the open interest was 231,619 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 45,326 lots. The price of polysilicon has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth is narrowing. The MACD and open interest changes show that the market presents the characteristic of "long - position reduction and price decline", and the market may weaken further [16] - **Option situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility has shown an upward trend, indicating an increase in the historical fluctuation range of polysilicon futures prices. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has weakened, suggesting that the market's expectation of future price fluctuations of polysilicon is decreasing. The PCR of option open interest has weakened, indicating that the market's bearish sentiment is gradually weakening [20] - **Capital flow**: The net long - position scale shows signs of reduction [22] - **Monthly spread structure**: The term structure of polysilicon futures remains in a contango structure, and the contracts have followed the reverse arbitrage logic in the past week, with little change in forward prices [24] - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main contract has weakened this week due to the sharp rise in futures prices, and the futures price is in the normal range from a historical statistical perspective [28] 3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, with most showing little change in daily and weekly comparisons [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is improving. After hitting a phased low in June, the industry's profitability has been continuously restored with the synchronous increase in polysilicon futures and spot prices. The spot profit of polysilicon has reached a maximum of 10,000 yuan/ton, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [32] - From the perspective of the futures end, under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the current gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.66%, and the profit has declined this week mainly due to the rise in industrial silicon futures prices and the fall in polysilicon futures prices [32] Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic production**: The SMM - weekly output is 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84%; the Baichuan - weekly output is 31,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.46%. The Baichuan - weekly operating rate is 49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [35] - **Inventory**: The total weekly inventory of polysilicon is 508,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts has all increased to varying degrees [42] 5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly output of silicon wafers is 14.73 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%, and the weekly inventory is 18.47 GW, a week - on - week increase of 6.70% [45] 5.3 Battery Cell Supply - The weekly inventory of battery cells is 7.1 GW, a week - on - week increase of 7.09%, but a month - on - month decrease of 12.45% [57] 5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components is 33.5 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.90% [68] 5.5 Bidding - The winning bid capacity of photovoltaic components is 383.53 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 68.70% and a month - on - month decrease of 88.31%. The average winning bid price is 0.72 yuan/watt, with no change [70] 5.6 Installation and Application - The chart shows the seasonal data of China's monthly new photovoltaic installation capacity, but no specific data is provided in the text [73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term spot liquidity is tightening due to fewer imported shipments and potential unloading issues. In the long - term, domestic and imported supplies are expected to increase, leading to a high - supply situation in the fourth quarter that downstream industries can't fully absorb, and the inventory build - up pattern is hard to change [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply is tightening as more units are under maintenance and the return of Jingbo's styrene is uncertain. However, terminal demand recovery after the National Day holiday is limited, and port inventory remains high. With new plants coming into operation, the de - stocking pressure is expected to increase. In the short term, one can short the spread between pure benzene and styrene when prices are high, and consider widening the processing spread after seeing significant unplanned styrene production cuts or an increase in pure benzene imports. Given the large macro - level disturbances, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be 5200 - 5800 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 6200 - 6800 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over three years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventories and concerns about price drops, one can short styrene futures (EB2512) at 25% with an entry range of 6600 - 6650 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2512C6700) at 50% with an entry range of 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventories and the need to purchase based on orders, buy styrene futures (EB2512) at 50% with an entry range of 6350 - 6400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EB2512P6400) at 75% with an entry range of 55 - 70 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term supply tightness due to import issues, but long - term high supply and difficult de - stocking due to insufficient downstream demand [4]. - **Styrene**: Supply reduction due to maintenance, but limited demand recovery and high port inventory. New plant startups will increase de - stocking pressure. Macro factors drive price increases, but the rebound is weaker than that of crude oil [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - In early October, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China decreased to 4.7 tons, and some import cargoes faced unloading difficulties, tightening short - term spot liquidity [5]. - Dalian Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton styrene plant is planned to shut down for half a month starting in early November [7]. - US sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors in Venezuela have pushed up crude oil prices, strengthening the cost side [7]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of October 20, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 202,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period, indicating difficulty in reducing high inventory [8]. - The 600,000 - ton styrene plants of Guangxi Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into production around October 18 and 19 respectively [8]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The daily basis changes of pure benzene and styrene in different regions and contracts are provided, showing various trends [8]. - **Industry Chain Spreads**: The spreads between pure benzene and styrene in the industry chain, including spot, paper - based, and different contract months, are presented, along with their daily changes [9]. - **Price Data**: The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, are given for different dates, including daily and weekly changes [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US and geopolitical rumors about Venezuela have pushed up the crude oil market, with Brent crude returning to $65, a cumulative increase of over $5. However, the current geopolitical risks are only at the news level and have not escalated into major conflicts. The impact is estimated to be $2 - 3 for 1 - 2 trading days, and the market has basically reflected this. Sanctions mainly affect sentiment, and the actual supply - demand is less affected. If the situation does not escalate, there is a risk of a market decline due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment before next Monday. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives, and the rebound space is limited [1]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Close short positions on the monthly spread at an appropriate time and wait and see in the short term [3]. - **Options**: Wait and see [4]. 4. Logic梳理 Short - term rise driver - The core driver of the short - term rise is the increase in geopolitical risk sentiment. US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors about Venezuela have pushed up the overnight crude oil market. The impact of geopolitical news on the crude oil market is currently in the "news disturbance stage", with a neutral estimated impact of $2 - 3 for 1 - 2 trading days [7]. Limited impact on actual supply - demand - The US sanctions have room for maneuver. Rosneft's German subsidiary is exempted, and Russia can hedge the impact by increasing oil transportation to Germany and supplies to the Asia - Pacific region. - The supply side has spare adjustment capacity. The Kuwaiti oil minister said OPEC is ready to increase production. - Russia's stance indicates that the sanctions are more for pressure rather than blocking exports, and the impact on actual exports is limited. - The current rise is mainly sentiment - driven and does not change the medium - to - long - term fundamental pattern of the crude oil market. Compared with July - September, the geopolitical support has weakened, and the fundamental pressure has increased [8]. 5. Related Information - Brazilian President Lula will discuss topics including Venezuela with Trump. He hopes to persuade Trump to cancel tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctions on Brazilian officials [9]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said OPEC is ready to increase oil production if requested [9]. - As of the week ending October 17, US natural gas inventories were 380.8 billion cubic feet, an increase of 8.7 billion cubic feet from the previous week, 3.4 billion cubic feet more than the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 0.9%), and 16.4 billion cubic feet higher than the 5 - year average (a 4.5% increase) [9]. 6. Price and Spread Changes - **Global crude oil prices**: On October 24, 2025, Brent crude M + 2 was $65.27, WTI crude M + 2 was $61.19, SC crude M + 3 was 459.70 yuan/barrel, etc. There were corresponding price changes compared with previous periods [4][10][11]. - **Arbitrage indicators**: Various indicators such as Brent M + 2 SC M + 3, SC M + 3 theoretical price, SC theoretical landing profit, etc. showed different degrees of change in weekly and monthly terms [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 23.73 points, a 0.94% increase, with crude oil and copper being the most influential, contributing 1.13% and 0.3% respectively [1][4]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 95.36 points, a 2.75% gain, where crude oil and copper were the most influential, contributing 1.2% and 0.34% respectively [1][4]. - The Nanhua Metal Index went up 89.44 points, a 1.41% rise, with copper having the greatest influence, contributing 0.67% [1][4]. - The Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index climbed 56.78 points, a 3.66% increase, and crude oil was the most influential, contributing 1.72% [4]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 11.19 points, a 1.07% increase, and the most influential was live pigs, contributing 0.67% [4]. 2. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Point Change | Percentage Change | This Week's Max | This Week's Min | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2545.63 | 2521.90 | 23.73 | 0.94% | 2545.63 | 2515.75 | 29.88 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1524.01 | 1633.24 | - 109.23 | - 6.69% | 1633.24 | 1524.01 | 109.23 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3562.25 | 3466.89 | 95.36 | 2.75% | 3562.25 | 3466.89 | 95.36 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6439.19 | 6349.75 | 89.44 | 1.41% | 6439.19 | 6349.75 | 89.44 | | Energy - Chemical Index NHECI | 1606.45 | 1549.68 | 56.78 | 3.66% | 1606.45 | 1549.68 | 56.78 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1753.74 | 1715.43 | 38.31 | 2.23% | 1753.74 | 1715.43 | 38.31 | | Black Index NHFI | 2516.31 | 2486.47 | 29.84 | 1.20% | 2533.32 | 2486.47 | 46.85 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1055.84 | 1044.65 | 11.19 | 1.07% | 1058.23 | 1044.65 | 13.58 | | Mini - Composite Index NHCIMi | 1180.48 | 1169.02 | 11.46 | 0.98% | 1180.51 | 1165.33 | 15.18 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1042.63 | 980.68 | 61.95 | 6.32% | 1042.63 | 980.68 | 61.95 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 898.37 | 878.89 | 19.48 | 2.22% | 899.49 | 877.21 | 22.28 | | Coking Chemical Index MHCCI | 962.13 | 953.00 | 9.13 | 0.96% | 966.98 | 951.40 | 15.58 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1066.81 | 1048.30 | 18.51 | 1.77% | 1074.37 | 1047.48 | 26.89 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 705.61 | 704.05 | 1.56 | 0.22% | 711.73 | 704.05 | 7.68 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1235.04 | 1234.71 | 0.33 | 0.03% | 1243.65 | 1232.13 | 11.52 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 905.29 | 895.08 | 10.21 | 1.14% | 907.98 | 895.08 | 12.90 | [5] 3. Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of different Nanhua commodity indices, including the change from the previous week and the ranking. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Composite Index decreased from 0.648 to 0.522, with a change of - 0.048947482 and a ranking of 0.970 [8]. 4. Contribution of Futures Varieties - The report shows the contribution of each futures variety to the index's rise or fall, including the week - on - week increase, position - holding ratio, etc. For example, rebar had a week - on - week increase of 1.74% and a position - holding ratio of 6.83%, contributing to the index [10]. 5. Contribution of Key Varieties in Each Sector - In the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, copper, coke, etc. were the varieties with the greatest contribution [11]. - In the Nanhua Metal Index, copper had the highest contribution of 0.67%, followed by lithium carbonate with 0.17% [11]. - In the Nanhua Energy - Chemical Index, crude oil was the most influential [11]. - In the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, live pigs, soybean meal, and eggs were the varieties with the greatest contribution [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The marginal bullish factors under the influence of shipping sanctions are unstable. If the special port charges are mutually cancelled, the current price of the 01 contract may not support the log valuation and is likely to correct downward. [5] - Seasonal inventory reduction continues, but the downstream processing plants feel the market is not booming. The spot price has not increased, indicating a lack of prosperity in the spot market. [5] - The adjustment of delivery premium and discount in Chongqing and Penglai is unlikely to be realized in the 01 contract. If the impact of port charges fades, it may enter a rhythm of deep discount for delivery in mid - to late December. [5] - The near - term trading logic is that the repair of the discounted basis on the futures market is driven by the bullish factors in the far - term. [6] - The far - term trading expectation is the marginal bullish expectation caused by the increase in import costs or the reduction in import volume due to shipping sanctions, but this expectation has weakened. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The implementation of the special port charges for US ships since October 14, 2025, has led to a short - term price increase in the market. However, the far - term bullish factors may become unstable as the Sino - US trade consultation in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 may propose a phased solution. [5] - Seasonal inventory reduction continues, but the downstream market is not strong, and the spot price has not increased, indicating a weak spot market. [5] - The adjustment of delivery premium and discount in Chongqing and Penglai is unlikely to be realized in the 01 contract, and it may enter a deep - discount delivery rhythm in mid - to late December if the port charge impact fades. [5] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The 11 - contract is expected to enter delivery at a discount, and the 01 - contract is expected to rise and then fall, with a focus on short - selling on rallies. [9] - For basis and calendar - spread strategies, industrial customers can consider buying the basis, and the 11 - 01 calendar spread should be on the sidelines. The short 11 - 01 calendar spread has been stopped for profit, and the covered call strategy for the 01 contract has also been stopped for profit. [14] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 820 - 830. [12] - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 780 - 800. [12] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low, and the collection of special port charges is bullish for far - term prices. [15] - Bearish information: Low willingness of buyers to take delivery and high delivery costs for sellers in the delivery process, and there is an expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation in the next week's consultation. [15] - Spot transaction information: The report provides the spot prices and basis of different log specifications on October 24, 2025. [16] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - The 01 - contract added 4520 lots this week, showing a pattern of breaking through and then rising and oscillating technically. [17] - In terms of the calendar - spread structure, the C - structure deepened this week, with the calendar spread reaching a maximum of - 44 from - 30 last week's close and returning to - 32 by Friday's close. No new positions should be added considering the limited trading days. [19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 831, and in Shandong region it is around 836. The willingness of buyers to take delivery is around 792. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued. [28] 4.2 Import Profit - The import profit has been repaired to some extent. Reducing the proportion of imported materials and increasing the proportion of integrated materials can improve the import profit of the whole ship. [29] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From October 25 to November 3, 16 ships are expected to arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of 564,000 cubic meters. The trend of inventory reduction is expected to continue. [35] - As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume at the port reached 63,200 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5,900 cubic meters. [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is facing pressures of abundant supply, high port inventories, and limited demand growth. The industrial chain contradictions are difficult to ease before large - scale substantial production cuts by steel mills. After macro events are finalized, the market will return to fundamental - driven, and iron ore prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure [3]. - Currently, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply and demand, with prices under significant pressure. The supply side is abundant, and the demand side has limited growth, and the macro - level lacks policy support for iron ore demand [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Likely Positive Factors**: The daily average pig iron output remains around 2.4 million tons, providing basic demand support [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" reduces dependence on traditional infrastructure and real estate; global iron ore shipments are at a high level with a year - to - date cumulative incremental of 19 million tons; hot - rolled coil inventories are accumulating seasonally, and export profits are shrinking; steel mill profits are dropping significantly, and the pressure of production cut feedback is increasing; rising coking coal prices are squeezing steel mill profits and the upside price space of iron ore; the 45 - port iron ore inventory has reached 144 million tons, with nearly 4 million tons of inventory accumulation in the past two weeks, suppressing prices [5]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Operate the Iron Ore 2601 contract within the range of [760, 810] [9]. - **Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory and worried about future price drops, directly short iron ore futures (I2511) with a 25% short position at 800 - 810, and sell call options (I2511 - C - 850) with a 30% position at high prices [10]. - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, directly long iron ore futures (I2511) with a 30% long position at 750 - 760, and sell out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 790) with a 40% position at high prices [10]. - **Core Data** - **Cost - profit Table**: In the week of October 24, 2025, the iron water cost was 2463.56 yuan/ton, the blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast furnace rebar profit was - 56 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62% [10]. - **Weekly Shipment Data**: The global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, with an increase of 1.26 million tons compared to the previous week [10]. - **Weekly Demand Data**: The daily average ore handling volume was 3.1265 million tons, and the daily average pig iron output was 2.399 million tons [11]. - **Inventory Data**: The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 144.2359 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.4532 million tons [13]. Chapter 2: Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Global iron ore shipments are at a high level, with the year - to - date cumulative incremental reaching 19 million tons. Shipments from major mines and non - major mines have both increased [5][6]. - **Analysis of Shipments from Four Major Mines**: Shipments from Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, and FMG have shown different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. - **Analysis of Non - major Mine Shipments**: Non - major mine shipments are also relatively strong, and the Platts iron ore index leads non - major mine shipments by about 5 weeks [29]. - **Arrival and Berthing Analysis**: The arrival volume at 47 ports and related berthing data such as the number of ships in port and berthing days are presented in a seasonal analysis [31][33]. - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Analyzes the freight prices, shipping speeds, and sea - floating inventories of Capesize ships [39][46]. - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Presents the production of domestic iron ore concentrates from 186 and 433 mine enterprises in a seasonal analysis [49]. Chapter 3: Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzes the seasonal trends of pig iron output, the relationship between pig iron output and iron ore prices, and the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron output [52]. - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzes the production profits of different steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the profitability rate of steel mills, and shows that profits guide future steel production [58][66]. - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and cost - price relationship of rebar [72]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and price differences of hot - rolled coils [80]. - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzes the production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [85]. - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimates the off - balance - sheet production and analyzes the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, and galvanized sheets [89]. - **Export Analysis**: Analyzes China's steel export volume, port departure volume, export orders, and export profits [106]. Chapter 4: Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzes the seasonal trends of 45 - port iron ore inventories, including the inventory of different types of iron ore, the proportion of trading ores, and the ratio of different types of iron ore in the total inventory [110]. - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzes the inventories of steel mills, including in - plant inventories, sea - floating in - transit inventories, and inventory turnover days [128]. Chapter 5: Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Presents the basis data of different iron ore varieties and the term structure of iron ore futures [130]. - **Rebar - to - Ore and Hot - rolled Coil - to - Ore Ratios**: Analyzes the seasonal trends of rebar - to - ore and hot - rolled coil - to - ore ratios [133]. - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzes the seasonal trends of the price differences between coking coal and iron ore [135]. - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzes the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel through the iron - scrap price difference and its relationship with pig iron and scrap steel consumption [138].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report As calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.08% today. Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the largest increase of 0.68%, while the Nanhua Metals Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of - 0.74%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline of - 0.06%. Among the theme indices, the Energy Index had the largest increase of 0.9%, and the Building Materials Index had the largest decline of - 0.86%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Fuel Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.25%, and the Red Date Index had the largest decline of - 3.72% [1][3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index closed at 2545.63 yesterday and 2543.71 today, with an increase of 1.92 points and a daily increase of 0.08%, an annualized return rate of - 0.31%, and an annualized volatility of 11.87% [3]. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index closed at 1535.31 yesterday and 1524.01 today, with a decrease of 11.31 points and a daily decline of - 0.74%, an annualized return rate of - 0.03%, and an annualized volatility of 50.30% [3]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index closed at 3562.25 yesterday and 3555.56 today, with an increase of 6.69 points and a daily increase of 0.19%, an annualized return rate of - 8.16%, and an annualized volatility of 14.21% [3]. - Other indices such as the Metals Index, Energy and Chemical Index, etc., also have corresponding data on closing prices, daily changes, annualized return rates, and annualized volatilities [3]. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Changes to Index Changes - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, varieties such as crude oil and fuel oil have positive contributions, while natural rubber and PVC have negative contributions [3]. - For the Nanhua Composite Index, crude oil and fuel oil have positive contributions, while natural rubber and iron ore have negative contributions [3]. - Similar contribution analyses are also provided for other indices such as the Nanhua Mini - Composite Index, Nanhua Metals Index, etc [3]. Single - Variety Index Data - Some single - variety index data are presented, including the daily changes of individual products such as glass, LLDPE, and natural rubber [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus persists, and the expected increase in production in India and Thailand in October is suppressing sugar prices. Typhoons in late September and early October affected Guangxi, causing significant sugarcane lodging, and the losses are yet to be estimated [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for sugar is predicted to be between 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2601) at 5500 - 5550 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR601C5600) at 25 - 30 with a 50% ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2601) at 5400 - 5420 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR601P5300) at 20 - 25 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The global sugar supply surplus continues. The expected production increase in India and Thailand in October is keeping sugar prices low. Typhoons in late September and early October damaged sugarcane in Guangxi, and the losses are still unknown [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - **Yunnan's Sugar Production**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, about 51 - 52 sugar mills in Yunnan are expected to start operations. In late October, 2 mills are expected to start, and in early November, 2 - 3 mills are expected to start, 1 - 2 more than last year. Typhoons have affected some areas, potentially impacting sugarcane yield and sugar content [5]. - **Brazil's Shipping and Exports**: As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 90 from 83 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased by 11.91 million tons (3.3%) to 3.7272 million tons. In the first two weeks of October, Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses, a 9.45% increase from the same period last year [5]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - **Inner Mongolia's Sugar Production**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, all 12 planned sugar mills in Inner Mongolia have started operations. Affected by rainfall in September, the start - up time was delayed by about 10 days, and beet sugar content decreased. The estimated sugar output is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, similar to the previous season [6]. - **Xinjiang's Sugar Production**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started operations, and the last one is expected to start after October 20. With good weather, the output is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Brazil's Sugar Production**: In the second half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.858 million tons, a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The sugar production was 3.137 million tons, a 10.76% increase. From the start of the 2025/26 season to the second half of September, the cumulative sugar production was 33.524 million tons, an 0.84% increase [9]. - **Brazil's Sugarcane Planting Forecast**: Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.355219 million hectares, a 1.5% increase from last month's forecast and the same as in 2024. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 695.532937 million tons, the same as last month's forecast but a 1.6% decrease from 2024 [10]. 3.5 Sugar Price Data - **Basis**: On October 23, 2025, the basis between Nanning and various futures contracts showed daily and weekly declines. For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 293, with a daily decline of 31 and a weekly decline of 89 [11]. - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 24, 2025, most sugar futures contracts showed slight declines. For example, SR01 closed at 5446, a 0.2% daily decline but a 0.63% weekly increase [12]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On October 24, 2025, the spot price of Nanning was 5750, unchanged daily but a 40 - point weekly decline. The price difference between Nanning and other regions also changed [13]. - **Sugar Import Prices**: On October 24, 2025, the quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand both decreased. For example, the in - quota import price from Brazil was 4166, a 29 - point daily decline and a 168 - point weekly decline [14].