1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures**: The domestic economy is under downward pressure and has entered a policy observation period. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range. The stock market is expected to be volatile, and it's recommended to wait and see. The bond market is suitable for band - trading. The EC in the shipping market is expected to be volatile and decline [1][2][3][4][6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals are expected to stop falling and rise, and it's recommended to buy on dips. Copper is recommended to hold cash and wait. Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short term. Tin is expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to hedge inventory. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a wide - range shock. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to enter a shock range. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have limited upward and downward space. Iron ore is expected to be strong. Coking coal and coke have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended not to be overly pessimistic [11][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][24][26][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space. LPG supply and demand remain loose. It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels. MEG and bottle chips are expected to fluctuate in a range. Methanol's short - term fundamentals are weak. PP is expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern. PE is expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery. Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to narrow the price difference. Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and falls. Urea's 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak. Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [32][34][35][38][39][40][42][43][44][45][46][47][49][50][53][54][55][56][57][58][60]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oilseeds, it's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts. Vegetable oils are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger. Corn and starch are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly [67][68][69][70][71][72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are affected by non - farm data and inflation [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is affected by the weakening of the US dollar and the central bank's guidance, and it's expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock market is expected to be volatile due to the lack of a continuous leading sector and short - term positive factors [5][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline of treasury bond futures in the afternoon is affected by the A - share market and false news. It's recommended for band - trading [6][7]. - **Shipping (EC)**: Affected by US tariffs and spot quotes, the EC is expected to be volatile and decline [9][10]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose due to the recovery of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and they are expected to stop falling and rise [11]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are affected by the US dollar index, and it's recommended to hold cash and wait [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is under pressure and fluctuates, alumina is weak, and cast aluminum alloy is in a shock state [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to decline slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar index [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It's expected to be in a wide - range shock due to supply - side disturbances [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to enter a shock range, and it's recommended to pay attention to the callback buying opportunity for industrial silicon [19][20]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: They have limited upward and downward space due to unclear driving factors [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: It's expected to be strong due to good fundamentals and high demand [24][26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They have short - term callback pressure but are not pessimistic in the long term [27][28]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are recommended not to be overly pessimistic as the market sentiment has cooled but the fundamentals are supported [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It's under supply - surplus risk and has limited upward space due to weakening seasonal demand [32][34]. - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose [35][37]. - **PX - PTA**: It's recommended to expand the TA processing fee at low levels as the TA processing fee is at a historical low [38][39]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate in a range as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out [40][42]. - **Methanol**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, and it's necessary to pay attention to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [43][44]. - **PP**: It's expected to return to a weak and volatile pattern due to supply - demand imbalance [45][46]. - **PE**: It's expected to be volatile in the short term and wait for demand recovery [47][49]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: It's recommended to narrow the price difference between them, and styrene is recommended to be shorted on rallies [50][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: It's weak due to sufficient supply and low demand [54]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It's affected by crude oil and falls, and it's recommended to be short - configured [55]. - **Urea**: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile and weak due to the pressure on the spot market and the weakening of agricultural demand [56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass is in a weak - balance state and will move towards the delivery logic. Caustic soda needs to pay attention to the delivery logic and supply - side pressure [57][58][60]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: It's recommended to go long on the far - month contracts as the domestic far - month has a supply - demand gap [67][68][69]. - **Vegetable Oils**: They are expected to be weak and adjust, with soybean oil being relatively stronger [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: They are expected to be in a narrow - range shock and decline slightly due to weak demand [71][72]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: It's expected to be in a shock state after the price decline, and it's recommended to wait and see [61]. - **Log**: It's recommended for non - industrial customers to operate in a range and for industrial customers to hedge. The price fluctuates around the warehouse - receipt cost [62][63][64]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is weak, and the cost is disturbed. The supply is loose, and the demand changes little [64][65][66].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The mid - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and in the short - term, although the multi - short game is intense, the bulls are mainly in control. Precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rebound. The support for London gold is 3340, with resistance at 3400 and 3450; the support for London silver is 37, with resistance at 38. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情回顾] - On Monday, the precious metal market stopped falling and rebounded. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 781.42 yuan/gram, up 1.36%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 1.3%. The main reason for the price increase was the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2]. [本周关注] - This week's data is light. Pay attention to the US ISM Services PMI and import - export data on Tuesday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy; on Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. [南华观点] - The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the multi - short game is fierce, but the bulls control the rhythm. The precious metal prices are expected to stop falling and rise. For London gold, the support level is 3340, and the resistance levels are 3400 and 3450; for London silver, the support level is 37, and the resistance level is 38. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. [贵金属期现价格表] - SHFE gold main continuous contract: 781.42 yuan/gram, up 10.7 yuan, or 1.39%. SGX gold TD: 775.55 yuan/gram, up 8.37 yuan, or 1.09%. CME gold main contract: 3428.6 dollars/ounce, up 12.6 dollars, or 0.37%. SHFE silver main continuous contract: 9039 yuan/kilogram, up 121 yuan, or 1.36%. SGX silver TD: 8999 yuan/kilogram, up 111 yuan, or 1.25%. CME silver main contract: 37.445 dollars/ounce, up 0.34 dollars, or 0.92%. SHFE - TD gold: 5.87 yuan/gram, up 2.33 yuan, or 65.82%. SHFE - TD silver: 40 yuan/kilogram, up 10 yuan, or - 37.5%. CME gold - silver ratio: 91.5636, down 0.4995, or - 0.54% [5]. [库存持仓表] - SHFE gold inventory: 35889 kilograms, up 144 kilograms, or 0.4%. CME gold inventory: 1206.6166 tons, up 2.426 tons, or 0.2%. SHFE gold position: 217696 lots, down 1072 lots, or - 0.49%. SPDR gold position: 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons, or 0.18%. SHFE silver inventory: 1174.273 tons, down 9.684 tons, or - 0.82%. CME silver inventory: 15757.0987 tons, down 1.8489 tons, or - 0.01%. SGX silver inventory: 1368.435 tons, up 56.415 tons, or 4.3%. SHFE silver position: 371051 lots, up 5858 lots, or 1.6%. SLV silver position: 15021.873699 tons, down 34.7912 tons, or - 0.23% [14]. [股债商汇总览] - US Dollar Index: 98.757, up 0.0664, or 0.07%. US Dollar to Chinese Yuan: 7.1842, down 0.0093, or - 0.13%. Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44173.64 points, up 585.06 points, or 1.34%. WTI crude oil spot: 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars, or - 2.79%. LmeS copper 03: 9708.5 dollars/ton, up 75.5 dollars, or 0.78%. 10 - year US Treasury yield: 4.22%, down 0.01%, or - 0.24%. 10 - year US real interest rate: 1.85%, down 0.05%, or - 2.63%. 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread: 0.54%, up 0.11%, or 25.58% [17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an August 4th risk management daily report on nickel and stainless steel, written by the New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team of Nanhua [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy level of 2 [4] - **Procurement Management**: When concerned about rising raw material prices for future production needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan, with strategy levels of 3 and 1 respectively [4] Group 4: Core Contradictions - For nickel, the macro - level sentiment has faded. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore arriving at ports is stable, with a loosening price expectation. The August premium adjustment in Indonesia is limited. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and iron mills have a certain price - holding sentiment. The new energy salt factories have some support, and the demand of some downstream precursor factories has increased [5] - For stainless steel, the spot price has increased, and the transaction has improved. Some steel mills have adjusted their production schedules in August, with some resuming production for the peak seasons in September and October. Attention should be paid to downstream demand trends [5] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements like iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase stainless steel demand [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season, with slow inventory reduction - Pure nickel inventory is high - Nickel ore seasonal inventory rises, weakening the bottom support - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [7] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - The latest value of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The LME nickel 3M is 15,020 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.05% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 120,522 lots, and the open interest is 95,467 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 21,170 tons, with a - 0.95% month - on - month change [7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 209,082 tons, unchanged; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [9] Stainless Steel Market - The latest value of the stainless steel main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 122,249 lots, and the open interest is 87,475 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, with a - 0.06% month - on - month change [8] - The stainless steel social inventory is 966,200 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous period [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent mild policy statements have revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform, cooling market sentiment. The market may return to the fundamental logic of supply - demand, and the coking coal near - month contract faces delivery pressure with short - term price correction pressure [4]. - The strict inspection of over - production in coking coal mines is true, which limits the coking coal开工率 in the second half of the year. The "anti - involution" policy details are yet to be released, and policy expectations will support the overall valuation of commodities. The pre - parade production limit expectation will support the finished product prices. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. - In terms of operation, due to the recent sharp fluctuations in the market, unilateral speculation is not recommended. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Dual - Coking Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range forecast is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. 3.2. Dual - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For the arbitrage scenario of inter - month arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread. The hedging tools are jm2509&jm2601, the trading direction is to sell, and the recommended entry range is (-40, -30) [3]. 3.3. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantities of various black commodities changed. For example, the quantity of rebar decreased by 2394 tons to 82640 tons, the quantity of hot - rolled coil decreased by 1176 tons to 55998 tons, the quantity of coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, etc. [3] 3.4. Core Contradictions - The recent policy is mild, which has revised the market's expectations of the "supply - side" reform. The market sentiment has cooled, and the market may return to the supply - demand fundamental logic. The coking coal near - month contract has delivery pressure and short - term price correction pressure. However, the coking coal production is restricted in the second half of the year, and policy expectations support the overall valuation of commodities. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - to - long - term trend of coal and coke [4]. 3.5. Bullish Interpretations - There is still an expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. - The downstream steel mills have good profits, and raw materials have a basis for price increases. - There is room for policy expectation games before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. 3.6. Bearish Interpretations - The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there is pressure on subsequent arrivals. - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has recovered, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. - The off - balance - sheet inventory of futures and spot flows into the market, pressuring the spot price [5]. 3.7. Coal and Coke Futures Prices - The report provides the coal and coke futures prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs, basis, inter - month spreads, on - disk coking profit, and various ratios such as the main mine - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main carbon - coal ratio, as well as their daily and weekly changes [6]. 3.8. Coal and Coke Spot Prices - The report shows the coal and coke spot prices on August 4, 2025, August 1, 2025, and July 28, 2025, including the prices of various types of coking coal and coke, their price types, units, and daily and weekly changes, as well as import and export profits and the coking coal/thermal coal ratio [7][8].

国债期货日报 2025年8月4日 下一个修复的会是价差吗？ 观点：波段交易 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货高开后早盘整体震荡，午后价格持续回落，最终T、TL合约小幅收涨，短端合约收跌。现券走势相 反，全天下来各期限利率整体上行，截至收盘收益率水平已经接近上周五收盘后，即增值税消息的影响被抹 平。跨月后流动性充裕，DR001加权在1.31%，GC001尾盘也收在1.3%附近。公开市场方面，今天逆回购到 期4958亿元，但央行新做5448亿，依旧保持了490亿的净投放。本周公开市场到期量较大，央行在周一给出 这样的续作信号，便于稳定市场预期和情绪。 日内消息： 1.央行公布7月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，其中MLF净投放1000亿元，买断式逆回购净投放2000亿 元，未进行公开市场国债买卖。 行情研判： 国债期货午后的下跌主要受两方面影响，一是A股强势风险偏好压制，另一方面关于国开债发行的小作文导致 现券盘中砸盘，从而带崩整个债市。尽管随后消息被迅速证伪，但行情整体偏弱，较开盘回撤明显。增值税 短期内对老券的利多在周五盘后和今早盘前 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the meeting last week, the market became clearer about the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The policy fell short of expectations, and the commodity market cooled down. Ferroalloys gave back previous gains and returned to their fundamentals. Steel mills' good profit and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand in the short - term, but long - term demand faces challenges from the weak real estate market and uncertain policy - driven support in the home appliance and automotive sectors. The manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support from the ore end to ferromanganese is insufficient. Although the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, there is still some market expectation for supply - side contraction, and the risk of shorting further is high with limited downside space [4] Detailed Summaries Price Forecast and Volatility - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, sell SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradictions - Policy on capacity governance is not as expected, leading to market cooling. Short - term ferroalloy demand is supported by steel mills' profit and high hot metal production, but long - term demand is uncertain due to the real estate market and policy - dependent sectors. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support for ferromanganese from the ore end is weak. There is still some expectation for supply - side contraction, but shorting further is risky [4] Bullish Factors - Silicon iron: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased, with Inner Mongolia at +85 yuan/ton (+6) and Ningxia at 282 yuan/ton (+56). The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry [5] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%, and the weekly output was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The five - major steel products' demand for silicon iron this week was 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory was 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, and the total inventory was 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. The profits in the northern and southern regions of ferromanganese are negative and decreasing. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the weekly output was 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The total inventory was 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the spot prices in various regions decreased, and the basis and futures spreads also changed. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton [7] - **Ferromanganese**: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the basis and futures spreads changed, and the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials also had slight fluctuations. For example, the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 46 yuan/ton, and the price of Tianjin Australian ore decreased by 0.5 [8] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and ferromanganese are provided, which can help analyze the historical performance and trends of the products [9][18][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and then fluctuated upwards. Except for the EC2508 contract which remained relatively stable as it entered the delivery month, the prices of other contracts declined slightly. The US tariff policy affected the macro - sentiment, and the sentiment of the EC contract was also negatively impacted, causing it to open lower. Additionally, the futures price trend was also affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European line, which led to a slight downward movement. For the future, it is expected that the EC will likely maintain a volatile and slightly downward trend, with some contracts possibly experiencing a slight rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden events, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - **Position Management**: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1700 - 1800 to lock in profits [1]. - **Cost Management**: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1300 - 1400 to lock in booking costs in advance [1]. EC Market Analysis - **Contract Price and Position Changes**: As of the close, the EC2510 contract saw long positions reduce by 4 to 26,442, short positions reduce by 1,190 to 30,717, and trading volume decrease by 5,287 to 38,535 (bilateral) [1]. - **Price and Spread**: On August 4, 2025, the closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 decreased by - 0.20%, - 0.15%, - 0.90%, - 1.33%, - 1.11%, and - 0.81% respectively compared to the previous day. The spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Base Difference**: The base differences of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on August 4, 2025, were 175.56, 876.06, 620.66, 827.66, 982.76, and 844.66 respectively, with daily and weekly changes [4]. Market News and Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factor**: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's determination to "eliminate" Hamas may have an impact on the market, but the specific impact on the container shipping market is not detailed [2]. - **Negative Factors**: Some major shipping companies lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European line in mid - August. The US implemented new tariffs, which increased the actual tariff rate to 17%, affecting the macro - trade environment and the container shipping market [1][3]. Shipping Quotes and Indexes - **Container Shipping Spot Quotes**: The total quotes for 20GP and 40GP containers on different shipping lines from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different trends of increase or decrease in mid - to late August [6]. - **Global Freight Rate Indexes**: The SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX comprehensive freight rate indexes for European and US - West routes showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 0.81% to 2297.86 points, and the FBX comprehensive freight rate index increased by 0.09% to 2302 dollars/FEU [7]. Port and Shipping Data - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore showed different changes on August 3, 2025, compared to the previous day and the same period last year [14]. - **Shipping Speed and Waiting Ships**: The average speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage on August 3, 2025, showed certain changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report After two consecutive days of significant corrections last week, the sentiment in the stock market has recovered today. However, although the market has moved upward, the trading volume remains in a contraction state. The leading industries are mainly related to military (Pakistan's defense layout information), robotics (mass production of robot orders and accelerated corporate financing), and precious metals (due to the unexpected US non - farm data, the US dollar index declined, and the risk - aversion sentiment increased), all driven by short - term information changes, and their sustainability is expected to be limited. From the perspective of stock index futures indicators, the market shows short - sellers leaving, which mainly reflects that investors believe the possibility of short - term corrections has decreased. Without obvious bullish factors, the possibility of a continuous upward trend is low. It is expected that the stock index will fluctuate within the week, so it is not advisable to chase high in operation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review The stock index generally moved upward today, with small - cap stocks showing stronger performance. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 99.8 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all stock index futures increased in price with reduced volume, indicating that the market was mainly driven by short - covering [2]. Important Information - HSBC raised its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [3]. Strategy Recommendation It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.52 | 0.54 | 0.97 | 1.42 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 7.71 | 3.8519 | 7.7587 | 18.9239 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 2.2338 | - 1.2314 | - 1.1855 | - 2.3743 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.4635 | 9.2065 | 21.695 | 33.7048 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | - 0.7234 | - 0.4835 | - 0.3294 | - 0.1172 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.66 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.46 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.08 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 14985.50 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (billion yuan) | - 998.00 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The BDI composite freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices all declined this week, with mainstream vessel types dropping by over 10%. The demand for shipping vessels showed no significant increase compared to the same period last week. The decline in most agricultural product shipping demand, except for an increase in soybean shipping volume, supported the demand for Panamax vessels but dragged down the demand for Handysize vessels. Meanwhile, the high shipping volumes of coal and iron ore supported the demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 1st, compared with the previous week, the BDI composite freight index and its sub - vessel type freight indices all declined. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2018 points, down 10.59% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3296 points, down 13.92% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1644 points, down 10.55% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1259 points, down 1.93% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 678 points, down 0.59% week - on - week [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 1st, the FDI index rebounded across the board, but most routes in the FDI rental index declined, mainly concentrated in some routes of Panamax and Supramax vessels. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1318.03 points, up 1.58% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1606.13 points, up 1.79% month - on - month. Among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1729.93 points, up 7.39% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1552.84 points, down 3.43% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1494.35 points, down 0.62% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1125.97 points, up 1.38% month - on - month [7]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Shipping Vessels Used by Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 38 shipping vessels, Russia used 8, Argentina used 22, and Australia used 5. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 51, Guinea used 25, Indonesia used 33, Russia used 21, South Africa used 16, Brazil used 11, and the United States used 8 [16][17]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 14 vessels were used for corn shipping, 14 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 95 vessels were used for coal shipping, 68 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the most vessels required for agricultural product shipping were Post - Panamax vessels (36), followed by Supramax vessels (19) and Handysize vessels (15). For industrial product shipping, the most vessels required were Capesize vessels (77), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (63) and Supramax vessels (47) [18]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - This week's data showed that the number of vessels at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa continued to increase. Adjusted data showed that from July 1st to August 4th, there was "one port with a decrease and four ports with an increase". The number of dry bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased significantly by 30 compared to the previous period; the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 16; the number of vessels docked at six Indonesian ports increased by 1; the number of vessels docked at five Brazilian ports increased by 5; and the number of vessels docked at one South African port increased by 1 [19]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 1st, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On August 4th, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan per ton. On August 1st, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $27,300 per day, and the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $116.65 per thousand tons. On August 1st, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $12,235 per day, and the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 535.95 yuan per ton. On August 1st, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 678.4 points, and the CIF price of 4 - meter medium - grade radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [24].

南华期货集运周报 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数（SCFIS）欧洲航线继续下行，美西航线也再度小幅回 落。中国出口集装箱运价指数（CCFI）、上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）和宁波出口集装箱运价指数 （NCFI）均继续下降。 分航线来看，SCFI欧洲航线再度回落，美西航线和美东航线则继续下行。当周期价主要影响因素为欧线 现舱报价。当周主流船司8月现舱报价继续回落，带降了期货价格的估值。商品情绪则受宏观政策影响而有所 回落，同样利空EC的市场情绪。中美关税谈判基本无太多变化，整体对市场情绪影响短期中性略偏多。 对于后市而言，可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 受美国关税等宏观情绪影响，期价短期维持震荡略偏下行趋势的可能性仍相对较大，但需注意期价至短 期低位后可能的反弹。 2. 策略 期现（基差）策略：交易者宜保持观察，寻找短期做空基差的机会。 —— MSK开舱报价继续下行 2025/08/03 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣（Z0021065） 1. 摘要 套利（跨期）策略：可暂时保持观望。 3. 盘面回顾 截至周五，EC各月合约的收盘价与结算价均有 ...