Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Coal Turmoil Resurfaces, EG Slightly Strengthens [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in the third quarter is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is further postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 25% in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 10 - 15 [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 4280 - 4330 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a hedging ratio of 75% in the entry range of 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - The "anti-involution" logic has ended, and prices have returned to fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has limited downward space in the third quarter due to small inventory accumulation and low inventory levels, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and production costs to increase [3] 利空解读 - There are market rumors that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering serious losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation remains to be observed. The "anti-involution" sentiment has cooled after the July 30 Politburo meeting, and valuations have returned to fundamentals. The restart of previously shut - down Saudi Arabian plants has led to an upward revision of September import expectations [6] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - The report lists the production devices of MEG, PX, and PTA put into operation before May 30, 2005, including their regions, enterprises, addresses, capacities, production times, operating statuses, total capacities, capacity proportions, and monthly production impacts [7] Polyester Daily Table - It provides price, spread, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and profit data for various polyester - related products on August 6, 2025, August 5, 2025, and July 30, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel iron [1] - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile, with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The first - phase benchmark price for Indonesia in August was released, nickel ore prices stabilized with a slight upward movement, and downstream products were differentiated. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, and stainless steel showed a relatively strong intraday trend, but the stability of its current position remains to be tested. Macroscopically, the movement of the US dollar index can be followed [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The predicted price range of stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of NI main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short stainless steel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of SS main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [3] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [3] Market Conditions Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 120,910 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,060 yuan/ton, and 121,230 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.27%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0.30%. Trading volume decreased by 29.62% to 84,818 lots, open interest decreased by 5.16% to 90,543 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.17% to 20,923 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 75.0% to - 1,190 yuan/ton [6] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 12,960 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,005 yuan/ton, and 13,035 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.27%, 0.27%, and 0.15%. Trading volume decreased by 34.70% to 79,826 lots, open interest decreased by 1.74% to 85,949 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06% to 102,865 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 4.55% to 345 yuan/ton [7] Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 211,254 tons, an increase of 2,172 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [8] Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel; nickel iron trading is warming up [6] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; pure nickel inventory is high; nickel ore seasonal inventory increases, and the bottom support is somewhat weakened; Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment was reignited by the news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad such as the military parade, the Fed's interest rate cut game, and the Fourth Plenary Session. Investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game near the 09 contract delivery. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of monthly spread arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), with a suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 5723 tons to 88363 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 55998 tons, iron ore remained unchanged at 3600 hands, coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, coke remained unchanged at 760 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 112 sheets to 21930 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 243 sheets to 77611 sheets [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - The news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines reignited market sentiment, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad. Near the 09 contract delivery, investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game, and the previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 4. Profit and Loss Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases. There is room for policy expectation game before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. Off - balance - sheet inventory in the spot - futures market flows into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 5. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke futures had different degrees of change, and the on - disk coking profit decreased from - 18 to - 50 [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, most coal and coke spot prices remained unchanged, and the immediate coking profit increased from - 60 to - 12 [7]. 6. Import Profits and Ratios - **Import Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term agreement) decreased by 51 to 234 yuan/ton, the import profit of Australian coal (Peak Downs) increased by 15 to - 241 yuan/ton, etc [8]. - **Ratios**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.39 to 2.4072 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/08/05 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2800 | 24.94% | 63.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降 | SH2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 2600-2650 | | | | | 空烧碱期货来锁定利润，弥 | | | | | | | | | 补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | | | 低成本，若烧 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].

盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025年8月5日 市场降波 观点：波段交易，等待布局机会 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货全天震荡上行，斜率不算陡峭，但波动同样比较平稳。午后盘中转头回落，涨幅有所收窄，最终除 TS2509外，其余合约均收涨。期现两端表现一致，长端均强于短端，5Y以上现券收益率均小幅回落约 0.5bp，而短端则基本持平。此外，日内12合约普遍强于09，跨期价差向下小幅修正。公开市场到期4492亿 元，央行新做1607亿，日内净回笼2885亿元。资金利率保持平稳，隔夜匿名和DR001加权保持在1.31%附 近，非银尾盘资金需求增加，交易所隔夜下午逐步走高至1.54%附近。总体来看，流动性保持平稳。 日内消息： 1.央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。《意见》加强金融服务能力和长效机制建 设，促进保持制造业合理比重投入。健全金融机构服务制造业的内部机制安排，单列制造业信贷计划，针对 细分行业和企业成长阶段特点制定差异化授信政策。 行情研判： 债市日内稳步走强，结合周一的小幅上涨，目前对增值税恢复利好老券的逻辑的计价是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - Overnight, influenced by the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the U.S. stocks soared due to the trading of economic expectation repair, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 1.33%. Affected by this information, the morning review suggested that the sentiment might be optimistically driven, which was basically verified by today's stock market trend. At the industry level, the robot concept has been strong in recent days, and the financial and real - estate sectors also led the rise. At the futures index level, after the small - cap futures index has been strong for many days, today's trading data shows that IF and IM tend to have long - position additions, while IC and IM tend to have short - position closures, and the subsequent strength may switch. In terms of trend, the previous view is maintained. Due to the lack of obvious positive pull, it is difficult to have continuous rises, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate around the current central level [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index continued to rise, and the small - cap stocks maintained their strength. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 97.31 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with increasing volume, while IC and IM rose with decreasing volume, and the sentiment of large - cap futures indexes was positive [3] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in July rose to 52.6, the highest since May last year. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, with three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts. The bank also said that if the next employment report shows a further rise in the unemployment rate, the Fed may cut interest rates by an additional 50 basis points [4] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.84 | 8.0521 | 0.3421 | 25.564 | 0.1005 | | IH | 0.83 | 4.0737 | 0.2218 | 9.2725 | 0.066 | | IC | 0.66 | 6.5859 | - 1.1728 | 21.5144 | - 0.1806 | | IM | 0.90 | 15.5305 | - 3.3934 | 32.9938 | - 0.711 | [6] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.96 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.59 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 3.12 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 15960.81 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | 975.31 | [7]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" speculative funds exited the market, causing the urea futures to decline, leading to the release of spot and futures sources, and the urea spot market will face pressure. In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports will support the demand side. There are traders picking up goods for export, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term. Factory backlogs and inventory pressures are not large, and spot quotes fluctuate slightly, supporting urea prices. With the gradual opening of export channels, there may be a phased rebound. However, agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. Overall, urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [4] - Urea exports have been confirmed. Urea futures are mainly priced speculatively in the context of strong market speculation, so the futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with enhanced support below. Domestic policy suppression and the association's requirement for factories to sell urea at low prices have a negative impact on the spot sentiment [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Price Range Forecast - Urea price range forecast (monthly) is 1650 - 1950, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 27.16% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 62.1%. Methanol's price range is 2200 - 2400, with a volatility of 20.01% and a percentile of 51.2%. Polypropylene and plastic both have a price range of 6800 - 7400, with volatilities of 10.56% and 15.24% and percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% respectively [3] Urea Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When finished - product inventory is high and worried about urea price decline, for a long spot position, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short urea futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can sell UR2509 and buy UR2509P1850 with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 1800 - 1950. Buying put options to prevent large price drops and selling call options to reduce capital costs. Buying put options has a 50% hedging ratio, and selling UR2509C1950 has a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 45 - 60 [3] Procurement Management - When procurement of regular inventory is low and wants to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising urea prices, buy urea futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs. Buy UR2509 with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 1750 - 1900. Selling put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the urea price drops. Sell UR2509P1750 with a 75% hedging ratio in the range of 20 - 25 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - "Anti - involution" sentiment recedes, the market returns to fundamentals, and the methanol industry is weak after excluding macro - interference. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 10.56%, and historical percentile is 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, volatility is 15.24%, and historical percentile is 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (High Product Inventory, Fear of Price Drop)**: To prevent inventory losses, short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. Buy put options (MA2509P2250) and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 50% and 45 - 60% hedging ratio respectively [3] - **Procurement Management (Low Standing Inventory, Purchase Based on Orders)**: To prevent price increases, buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. Sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradictions - Xingxing's shutdown is confirmed, changing the previous non - shutdown expectation. Iranian shipments in July exceeded expectations by about 50,000 tons, reaching 753,000 tons. Combined with poor port提货 due to typhoons, there is high port arrival pressure in August, increasing 08 warehouse receipts. Downstream profits are poor, and although Baofeng maintained inland prices this week, other downstream sectors are weak in following the price increase [4] Negative Factors - This week, it is expected that foreign vessels will arrive at scattered ports, with sufficient arrival volume, and port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate [5]