Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and support from coal - based prices. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. There is a high risk of chasing high prices in the short term, especially after the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which may lead to a correction in ferroalloys. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with low operating rates. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually reducing it, while silicon manganese's inventory reduction is accelerating. The market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance is weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Silicon iron: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia is 5600 yuan/ton (+270). In trading areas, it is 5900 yuan/ton (+400) in Hebei and Tianjin. Silicon manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5700 yuan/ton (+70), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6090 yuan/ton (+100) [2]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the profit in Inner Mongolia's production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia's production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). For silicon manganese, the profit in the northern region is - 66.74 yuan/ton (-0.1), and in the southern region is - 430.33 yuan/ton (-5.13). Manganese ore port inventory is increasing, and the shipment of Australian ore is expected to resume [2]. Supply - Silicon iron: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. Silicon manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 41.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%, and the weekly output is 18.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.02%. Although the profit of ferroalloy plants has recovered, facing weak downstream demand, the operating rates remain low [3]. Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high pig iron production supports the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese. Pig iron production has rebounded above the seasonal level this week. On the other hand, the slow inventory reduction of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space of silicon iron and silicon manganese is limited. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the overall black sector is declining, causing doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%; the demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [3]. Inventory - Silicon iron: This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. Silicon manganese: The enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse receipt is 38.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%. Silicon iron currently has high inventory pressure, while the inventory pressure of silicon manganese is weakening [3].

Group 1: Report Summary - The Shanghai Nickel main contract showed an overall volatile and upward trend, closing at 124,360 yuan/ton, while the stainless steel main contract also trended upward, closing at 13,030 yuan/ton [2]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel maintained a premium, battery - grade nickel sulfate had an average price of 27,280 yuan/ton, and the profit margins of nickel - stainless steel products showed different trends [2]. Group 2: Core Logic - The Shanghai Nickel futures price was strong during the week but retreated on Friday night due to factors such as anti - involution price guidance. The cost support of nickel - iron has been adjusted [3]. - The supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose. The rainfall in the main mining areas in the Philippines has improved, and the nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia has declined [3]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained stable, and the downstream demand for new - energy nickel salts was weak. The price of nickel - iron continued to decline, and the bottom support of nickel - stainless steel strengthened [3]. - The cost support of stainless steel increased, and the market sentiment was boosted by the production cuts of leading manufacturers. However, the market transactions were mainly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The nickel - stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan for nickel and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan for stainless steel [3]. Group 4: Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 124,360 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 830 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.67% [4]. - The trading volume increased by 51.98% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 178.0% [4]. Stainless Steel Futures - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,030 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 100 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1% [5]. - The trading volume increased by 4.36% week - on - week, and the open interest increased by 0.56% [5]. Nickel Spot - The price of Jinchuan Nickel was 125,650 yuan/ton, with no daily change [6]. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,281 tons, a decrease of 57 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - The LME nickel inventory was 203,922 tons, a decrease of 534 tons [7]. Stainless Steel Inventory - The stainless steel social inventory was 967,400 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market theme remained clear this week, but the strength of the market exceeded expectations. Some varieties showed signs of taking over the upward trend on Friday. The exchange resolved the position - holding risk of the coking coal 09 contract through position limits and promoted position transfer. The overall market's bullish trend is unlikely to reverse completely due to position limits, but future market movements may not be as intense, and differentiation will be more obvious. The black sector is generally bullish [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Market Data Overview - The market continued the "anti - involution" theme this week. Under the notice of controlled coal over - production, coking coal led the market. The coking coal 09 contract had 4 out of 5 K - lines hitting the daily limit this week. After a sudden news on July 22, it hit the daily limit, with partial short - covering and fluctuations on the 23rd. It added 50,000 lots on the 24th and 25th, maintaining its strength. Many related varieties such as glass, soda ash, PVC, and ferrosilicon also strengthened significantly. However, on Friday night after the Dalian Commodity Exchange limited the position of the coking coal 09 contract to 500 lots, coking coal, glass and other varieties corrected sharply, and the coking coal 09 contract reduced its position by 100,000 lots. Since July 22, the coking coal 09 contract only rose by 92 points (less than 10%) by Friday night's close. The position limit successfully released the potential risk of the coking coal 09 contract's reluctance to transfer positions, but it is unlikely to reverse the trend of the leading variety in the anti - involution market. Similar cases in the past show that position limits are to prevent extreme market risks and do not change the variety's trend, but large fluctuations require risk control [4]. 3.2 Variety Price Movement Structure - From last week's variety price movement structure, low - priced varieties have shown a comprehensive upward trend, and some varieties have signs of continuing the bullish market. This is a systematic market that will not end abruptly due to the position limit on coking coal. Funds may look for new varieties to take advantage of the good market profit - making effect [5]. 3.3 Capital Flow in Different Sectors - The total capital flow was 14.391 billion. Among them, precious metals had a capital flow of 522 million, non - ferrous metals 5.558 billion, black metals 85 million, energy 72 million, chemicals 517 million, feed and breeding - 239 million, oils and fats - 1.769 billion, and soft commodities 164 million [9]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Different Commodity Categories - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals**: Data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. were provided [9]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. were presented [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. were given [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin price showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with persistent upward pressure. It is expected to decline slightly in the coming week, with a weekly operating range of 262,000 - 272,000 yuan per ton [1]. - The mid - week increase in tin price was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metal sector from anti - involution, while its own fundamentals remained largely unchanged. Considering the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin, the price increase is understandable. As the anti - involution heat fades, the tin price may decline slightly. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on the tin price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Futures盘面 Data (Weekly) - The futures prices of Shanghai tin all increased this week. The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 271,630 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 7,090 yuan or 2.68%. The London tin 3M price was 34,140 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 785 US dollars or 2.35%. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, a weekly decrease of 0.06 or 0.76% [2]. 3.2 Tin Spot Data (Weekly) - The prices of various tin spot products all increased this week. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots was 271,100 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 5,600 yuan or 2.11%. The 1 tin premium was 700 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan or 40% [4]. 3.3 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) - Tin imports continued to be at a loss, with the latest loss at 21,486.26 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 5,942.25 yuan or 38.23%. The 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable at 12,200 yuan per ton, and the 60% tin ore processing fee remained stable at 10,550 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Tin Inventory (Weekly) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was stable at around 7,000 tons, with the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt totaling 7,125 tons, a weekly increase of 308 tons or 4.52%. The LME tin inventory dropped significantly to 1,690 tons, a weekly decrease of 345 tons or 16.95%. The social inventory was 9,644 tons, a weekly decrease of 110 tons or 1.13% [1][10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot prices of coking coal continued to rise, with the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal quoted at 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton and the price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal at 1400 - 1450 yuan/ton. The third round of price increases for coke spot was implemented, and the fourth round was initiated on Sunday, expected to be officially implemented on Monday. The coking coal and coke futures experienced sharp fluctuations during the week, with significant changes in price and spreads [4]. - The coking coal market: Domestically, coal mines that had reduced or suspended production due to environmental protection and inventory issues are gradually resuming production, but at a slow pace. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports has returned to normal, and the import profit of overseas coal is continuously improving, which is expected to be reflected in the arrival volume in 1 - 2 months. The rebound in the futures market has driven the speculative demand for spot coking coal, leading to a rapid price increase and stimulating downstream coking plants to replenish raw material inventories. The short - term demand for coking coal has been boosted, and the inventory structure has improved significantly [4]. - The coke market: Due to the sharp increase in the price of coking coal, the losses of coking plants have widened, and their production enthusiasm is average. With the implementation of the third - round price increase and the ongoing pursuit of the fourth round, and considering the high profits of steel products, coke has a basis for further price increases. The demand for coke is strong, with high iron - making water production, rigid procurement demand from steel mills, and active participation of futures - cash traders in the market [5]. - After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures on Friday night, the coking coal futures market experienced a sharp decline, and related industrial futures also tumbled. If the speculative demand that entered the market earlier is unwound, the outflow of off - balance - sheet inventory will impact the spot market. Coking plants are currently in a wait - and - see mode, with insufficient motivation to continue replenishing inventories. Further price increases require the introduction of more than expected macro - policies. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and focus on the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 for arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Balance Sheet - **Coking Coal**: The total supply of coking coal has shown certain fluctuations. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coking coal production was 977.08 million tons, and the net import was 190 million tons, with a total supply of 1167.08 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production also had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 69.57 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Coke**: The total supply of coke also fluctuated. In Week 27 (2025/7/25), the coke production was 782.32 million tons, and the net export was 10.88 million tons, with a total domestic supply of 771.44 million tons. The theoretical iron - making water supply and the actual iron - making water production had differences, and the explicit inventory decreased by 7.42 million tons compared to the previous week [8]. 3.2 Key News This Week - **Macro News**: China's Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law [11]. - **Industry News**: Shagang raised the price of scrap steel by 50 yuan/ton. The third - round price increase of coke was fully implemented. Steel enterprises at the Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprises Summit Forum agreed to strengthen industry self - discipline. The Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of coking coal futures [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Data**: The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines increased by 0.83 percentage points to 86.9%, and the daily average raw coal production increased by 1.86 million tons to 194.74 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 62.31%, and the daily average cleaned coal production decreased by 1.23 million tons to 52.145 million tons. The total inventory of coking coal decreased by 69.57 million tons to 2982.88 million tons. The total inventory of coke decreased by 7.42 million tons to 918.23 million tons [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Futures Prices**: The basis and spreads of coking coal and coke futures showed significant changes. For example, the basis of coking coal (Tangshan Mongolian 5) decreased by 203 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [18]. - **Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke generally increased. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur prime coking coal increased by 150 yuan/ton to 1450 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Luliang quasi - first - grade wet coke increased by 100 yuan/ton to 1130 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price, Profit, and Spread**: The coking profit was negative, and the import profit of some coking coals improved. The ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.0732 to 2.4123 [20]. 3.4 Coking Coal Supply and Inventory - Mines: The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.9%, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average raw coal production was 194.7 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons, and the raw coal inventory decreased by 79.3 million tons to 536.0 million tons. The daily average cleaned coal production was 77.7 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 60.6 million tons to 278.4 million tons [63]. - Coal - washing Plants: The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points. The daily average production was 52.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.23 million tons. The raw coal inventory decreased by 6.16 million tons to 292.53 million tons, and the cleaned coal inventory decreased by 15.93 million tons to 175.61 million tons [65]. - Ports: The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports decreased by 41.46 million tons to 512.04 million tons [65]. 3.5 Coke Supply and Inventory - Independent Coking Plants: The capacity utilization rate was 73.45%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The daily average coke production was 64.60 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons, and the coke inventory decreased by 7.43 million tons to 80.12 million tons. The total coking coal inventory increased by 56.27 million tons to 985.38 million tons [96]. - Steel Mills: The daily average coke production was 47.16 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons. The coke inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 639.98 million tons. The coking coal inventory increased by 8.41 million tons to 799.51 million tons [96]. - Ports: The inventory of coke at 18 ports decreased by 2.38 million tons to 250.33 million tons [96]. 3.6 Steel Production and Inventory - 247 steel mills: The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The daily average iron - making water production was 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons [130]. - Steel Supply and Demand: The production of five major steel products was 866.97 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The total steel inventory was 1336.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.1%. The steel consumption was 868.13 million tons, with an increase of 2.7% in building material consumption and a decrease of 1.7% in plate consumption [130]. 3.7 Coal and Coke Import and Export - Coking Coal Import: The import volume of coking coal showed certain fluctuations, and the import structure also changed. The import volume from Mongolia, Russia, and other countries had different trends [169]. - Coke Export: The export volume of coke and semi - coke also showed seasonal changes, and the export profit also fluctuated [180][194].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution expectation may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, and market sentiment is also volatile. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate between reality and expectation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and short - term sentiment changes. As August approaches, the 09 contract will follow the delivery logic [2]. - For glass, the supply end daily melting volume has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month. The market is in a weak balance. The manufacturer's inventory has decreased, while the middle - stream inventory has increased rapidly, and the overall social inventory remains high [2]. - For soda ash, the overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance. The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of glass is 159,000 tons. The supply end has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected changes. From an environmental perspective, the daily melting volume of petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines accounts for 17% and 12% respectively; from the kiln age perspective, the daily melting volume of glass production lines in operation for more than 10 years accounts for about 15% [1]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory glass inventory is 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days are 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. The middle - stream inventory in Shahe has increased rapidly, and under the positive feedback, the manufacturer's inventory has continuously decreased [1]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are - 168 yuan for natural gas, + 129 yuan for coal - gas, and + 53 yuan for petroleum coke [1]. - **Demand**: As of mid - July, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% week - on - week and 7% year - on - year. The deep - processing enterprises' original glass inventory is 10.4 days, an increase of 13% week - on - week and year - on - year. The average production and sales rate in each region this week is 123, a significant increase compared to the previous week. The spot price in Hubei has continued to rise [1]. Soda Ash Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week, including a decrease of 0.58 tons in heavy soda ash and 0.36 tons in light soda ash). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The impact of short - term output fluctuations is weakening. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance [4]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash factory inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous week (a decrease of 40,800 tons in light soda ash and 200 tons in heavy soda ash). The delivery warehouse inventory is 305,000 tons (an increase of 58,400 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.1696 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory is still accumulating at a high level [4]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash produced by the combined soda process is + 18 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - soda process is - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 87,700 tons and continues to decline slowly. The inventory of photovoltaic finished products has started to decrease, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The float glass end remains stable overall [4]. Glass Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on glass futures' main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity [7][8]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the price of Shahe delivery products, the market price of 5mm float glass in different regions, regional price differences, and size - plate price differences [10][18]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on glass futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [20][25]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the production, loss, start - up rate, and production line start - up number of float glass [33][35]. - **Production and Sales**: Offers seasonal data on the glass production - sales rate in different regions [39]. - **Deep - Processing**: Provides seasonal data on the original glass inventory days, order days, and their ratios and differences in glass deep - processing enterprises [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of float glass using different processes [50]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the import and export volume of float glass [53]. - **Statistics Bureau Data**: Provides seasonal data on the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [56]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the inventory of float glass manufacturers, average available inventory days, and inventory in different regions and in Shahe [60][62]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of float glass, with and without imports and exports [73]. Soda Ash Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on the main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of soda ash futures [78]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [82][92]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on soda ash futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [96][100]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the weekly and monthly production, heavy - quality rate, capacity utilization rate, and production of heavy and light soda ash in different regions [104][124]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of light soda ash using different processes [126]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the monthly import, export, and net export volume of soda ash [135]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the factory inventory, average available inventory days, delivery warehouse inventory, and inventory in different regions of soda ash [138]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash, with and without imports and exports, as well as the raw material inventory days of glass factories and the pending order days of soda ash enterprises [144][151]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Provides seasonal data on the daily melting volume, loss volume, and inventory of photovoltaic glass, as well as the combined daily melting volume and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass [155][158].

Report Details - Report Date: July 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Nanhua Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment. The main pressure came from risk assets, and the tightening of the capital market worsened the situation. Treasury bonds and commodities are two types of assets with highly similar but opposite price trends. When commodities rebounded, the bond market faced substantial pressure and significant pullbacks [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, fundamentals and liquidity expectations are the two most crucial factors for the bond market. The report does not believe that the fundamentals have changed drastically in just one week, nor does it think that production restrictions can solve demand - side problems. The significant fluctuations in commodities and the bond market are related to the long - term low (high) valuation and low - volatility market structure, and market behavior has amplified the intensity of the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - **Futures Data**: The settlement prices of various Treasury bond futures contracts decreased this week. For example, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures T2509.CFE closed at 108.195, down 0.57%; the 30 - year Treasury bond futures TL2509.CFE closed at 118.120, down 2.00% [8]. - **Spread Data**: In terms of inter - period spreads, T2509 - T2512 was - 0.015, down 0.667; in terms of inter - variety spreads, 2TS - T was 301.109, up 0.183 [8]. - **Spot Bond Yields**: The yields of various Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased this week. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 6.79 BP to 1.73%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 8.70 BP to 1.98% [8]. - **Funding Rates**: Bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates and SHIBOR rates showed different degrees of increase. For example, DR001 rose 6.08 BP to 1.52%, and SHIBOR1M rose 0.90 BP to 1.55% [8]. 2. Graphical Analysis - **Bond Yield Curve Changes**: The report shows the changes in Treasury bond yields at different time points, reflecting the trends in yield curve movements [10][12]. - **Bond Spread Trends**: The report presents the trends of inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads, such as the 2TF - T and 2TS - T spreads [21]. - **Treasury Bond Term Spread Trends**: The report shows the trends of 5Y - 2Y BP, 10Y - 5Y BP, and 10Y - 2Y BP [25].

Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 [3] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - Today's stock index showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices falling and small - and medium - cap indices rising slightly. The trading volume of the two markets shrank slightly. Some previously leading sectors adjusted significantly. From futures indicators, the basis of each contract declined, and trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating a cooling market sentiment. The index may undergo a phased adjustment, but the positive trend logic remains unchanged. If there are unexpected policies released after the Politburo meeting next week, it will drive the index up [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance, with large - cap indices closing down and small - and medium - cap indices closing up. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 57.369 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM rose on shrinking volume, while other varieties fell on shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law. The draft improves the criteria for identifying predatory pricing, regulates market price order, and addresses "involution - style" competition, as well as the criteria for identifying unfair price behaviors such as price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions and wait and see [7] Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | - 0.50 | - 0.60 | - 0.03 | 0.03 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.2446 | 4.7227 | 7.6933 | 15.9413 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.1687 | - 0.6615 | - 1.8535 | - 4.5693 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.0176 | 9.744 | 22.5556 | 32.7023 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.1192 | - 0.3451 | - 0.4233 | - 1.129 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | - 0.33 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.22 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.93 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 17873.37 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 573.69 | [8]

1. Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in India and Thailand during the 25/26 sugar - making season, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slow production progress in Brazil and a high sugar - to - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new - season sugar production in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger with a short - term upward trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5800 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5900 - 6000 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C6000) with a 25% ratio at 40 - 50 to collect premiums and lower costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5750 - 5800 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SR509P5800) with a 75% ratio at 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand in the 25/26 season suppresses sugar prices. Brazil's slow production progress and high sugar - to - ethanol ratio lead to an increasing expectation of reduced production, causing price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger due to the open profit window for out - of - quota imports [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Domestic Sales and Inventory**: As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 514.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61.44 million tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, up 6.29 percentage points year - on - year. June's single - month sales were 49.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.73 million tons. Industrial inventory was 132.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.08 million tons [5]. - **Indian Inventory**: The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be between 480 - 500 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic consumption from October to November 2025 [6]. - **Import Restrictions**: China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder [6]. - **Brazilian Production**: As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 season, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative cane crush of 206.198 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.747 billion tons (14.06%); cane ATR was 122.19 kg/ton, a decrease of 6.14 kg/ton year - on - year; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, an increase of 2.33 percentage points year - on - year; cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.639 billion liters (14.81%); and cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.036 million tons (14.25%) [6]. - **Import Reduction**: In June, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 10.35 million tons [8]. - **Biofuel Policy**: Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [8]. - **Market Demand**: Trump announced that Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive in the US again and launch new sugar - containing cola, and PepsiCo is also willing to enter the sugar - containing cola market if there is demand [9]. 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Guangxi Production**: In the 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crush was 485.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.847 million tons; mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2836 million tons; and the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - **Brazilian Production Forecast**: Analysts at JOB expect Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9]. - **Thai Production Forecast**: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season is expected to reach 10.39 million tons [9]. - **Indian Production Forecast**: India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual. The chairman of the federation expects a strong recovery in sugar production in the 2025/26 season, reaching about 35 million tons, due to favorable monsoon conditions, expanded cane - planting areas in major producing regions, and an increase in the minimum cane purchase price [9]. - **Import Volume**: In June, sugar imports were 424,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 397,000 tons, and the profit for out - of - quota imports is open [9]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Base Difference**: On July 25, 2025, the base differences between Nanning and various futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and between Kunming and various futures contracts showed different daily and weekly changes [10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes of various sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) and their spreads were presented. For example, SR01 closed at 5706, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a weekly increase of 0.88% [11]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao and their regional spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, Nanning's price was 6050, with no daily or weekly change [12]. - **Import Price**: On July 25, 2025, the in - quota and out - of - quota import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar and their spreads with domestic prices (Rizhao, Liuzhou, Zhengzhou sugar) showed different daily and weekly changes [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 25, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang [2] Core Views - The current market is in the apple fruit expansion period with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early-maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early-maturing apple prices, and sales. After August, the supply of early-maturing apples will increase significantly, and consumption should be monitored [4]. - The main bullish factors are that the inventory in apple-producing areas is at a historical low, and unstable weather in production areas has attracted capital attention, with possible large-scale production cuts in the Northwest [4]. - The main bearish factors are that the overall production cut is less than expected based on bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits is approaching, which impacts apple sales and reflects weak consumption [4][5]. Price Forecast and Strategy Recommendations Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7,650 - 7,950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over the past three years [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: To prevent losses from new - season inventory accumulation, enterprises can short sell Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 25% when the price is between 8,100 - 8,150 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, buyers can buy Apple Futures (AP2510) at a hedging ratio of 50% when the price is between 7,900 - 7,950 [3]. Price and Inventory Data Apple Futures and Spot Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7,879 | 0.33% | 1.65% | | AP03 | 7,790 | 0.37% | 1.5% | |... |... |... |... | [5] Inventory Data - **Steel Union Data**: As of July 25, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 70.45 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 10.15. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 11.12, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 3.65, down 0.98; Gansu's was 2.77, down 0.92 [7]. - **Zhuochuang Data**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was 100.07 (unit not specified), a weekly decrease of 8.76. Shandong's storage capacity ratio was 12.31, down 1.03; Shaanxi's was 7.03, down 0.65 [7]. Wholesale Market Arrival Data | Market | Arrival Quantity | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangdong Chalong | 16 | - 3 | | Guangdong Jiangmen | 8 | - 1 | | Guangdong Xiaqiao | 10 | - 2 | [7]