1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View - The current spot market shows no obvious restocking behavior, slightly falling short of expectations, and the spot price is oscillating weakly. It may wait for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. The market still anticipates subsequent periodic restocking in non - aluminum sectors, but it remains to be seen whether this expectation will be falsified. In the long - term, high profits limit the price increase, and there is continuous production capacity expansion pressure. The implementation and timing of downstream alumina production capacity expansion may vary, affecting the periodic restocking rhythm [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.96% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.2% [2] 3.2 Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2601, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell call options (SH601C2680, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises. For those concerned about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2400 - 2450) to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can sell put options (SH601P2400, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 70 - 80) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] 3.3 Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Near - term restocking falls short of expectations, the spot market is weak; there is production capacity expansion pressure and policy expectations in the medium - to - long term [3] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - There is limited real - world pressure in areas outside Shandong. However, Shandong faces significant spot pressure, and the spot price may weaken after the periodic restocking ends. The profit is moderately high [3] 3.4 Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Spread - On October 15, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract was 2539 (up 6 or 0.24% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 2592 (up 4 or 0.15%), and the 01 contract was 2438 (up 10 or 0.41%). The month - spread (5 - 9) was - 53 (up 2), (9 - 1) was 154 (down 6), and (1 - 5) was - 101 (up 4) [4] Spot Price - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory price in different regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong (Jingling 2406, unchanged), (Haihua 2656, unchanged), (Lutai 2875, unchanged), (Hengtong 2750, up 63 or 2.3%); Jiangsu (Xinpu 3088, unchanged), (Jinqiao 2837.5, unchanged); Zhejiang (Zhenyang 3419, unchanged); Shaanxi (Beiyuan 3350, unchanged). The 50% caustic soda ex - factory price: Jinling 2480 (unchanged), Lutai 2800 (unchanged), Beiyuan 3420 (unchanged). The flake caustic soda market price in different regions remained unchanged on October 15, 2025 [5][6] Price and Spread Differences - The price differences between different caustic soda grades and regions on October 15, 2025: Shandong 50% - 32% caustic soda was 74 (unchanged); Jiangsu 49% - 32% caustic soda was 31 (unchanged); Jiangsu 48% - 32% caustic soda was 83 (unchanged); Northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda was 533 (unchanged); Jiangsu - Shandong (32% caustic soda converted to 100%) was 150 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Jiangsu - Shandong) was 420 (unchanged); 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) was 620 (down 10) [6]

Report Overview - The report is the Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 14, 2025, released by Nanhua Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) fluctuated first, and the far - month contracts rose significantly in the afternoon. All EC contracts closed higher. The upward price is due to Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and the price increase letters issued by the top three global shipping companies, as well as the escalation of the strike at the Port of Rotterdam. In the short term, the prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategies can be to stay on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Section EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate drops, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1700 - 1750 to lock in profits [2] - For those hoping to book cabins according to orders and worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2512) at 1450 - 1500 to determine booking costs in advance [2] Core Contradictions - The futures prices of EC rose today. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and price increase letters from major shipping companies, along with the Rotterdam port strike, supported the prices. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and trade relations [3] 利多解读 - The strike at the Port of Rotterdam has escalated, paralyzing container handling operations and increasing supply - side pressure. Maersk's successful price - holding in mid - to - late October and CMA CGM's price increase in November are positive factors [4] 利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump proposed to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products, which is a negative factor [5] EC Basis Daily Changes - On October 15, 2025, the basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of change. For example, the basis of EC2510 was - 104.40, with a daily decrease of 6.80 and a weekly decrease of 109.89 [7] EC Price and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts all increased. For example, EC2512 closed at 1674.1, with a daily increase of 7.14% and a weekly decrease of 4.68% [7] Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On October 30, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam were the same as the previous two periods. CMA CGM's quotes increased in November, while ONE's quotes decreased in mid - to - late October [9] Global Freight Rate Indexes - Different global freight rate indexes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European route index decreased by 1.40%, while the SCFI European route index increased by 9.99% [9] Global Major Port Waiting Times - On October 14, 2025, the waiting times at major ports changed compared to the previous day. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.400 days [16] Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On October 14, 2025, the speeds of different - sized container ships decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal ports increased by 4 [24]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 15, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures have declined rapidly in recent days, with the near - term November contract breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark. Based on the fourth - quarter forecast range, the price has taken an important step in bottom - finding. The price structure shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, corresponding to the decreasing pressure of spot supply. The 2601 contract is about to become the main contract, and the futures price regained 2,100 yuan yesterday. It may form a short - term consolidation and repair, and the opening of storage warehouses to purchase supports the rebound of the futures price. The registered warehouse receipts have slightly increased to 36,709 lots. [2] - In the spot market, the market continues to digest the pressure of new grain listing, and the spot price is weak. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong and North China have more declines than increases. There are positive changes in the Heilongjiang production area, where some direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation have started to purchase corn, which stabilizes the price. With the start of purchases by the China Grain Reserves Corporation, the decline of the corn spot price may change rhythmically, and the recent large decline needs to be repaired. The positive factors in the market are accumulating, but during the period of new grain supply, the support is insufficient, and the market will mainly digest the pressure in the short term. By the end of this month, the new grain harvesting will enter the final stage, and important price nodes may appear. [2] - The CBOT corn futures price is running weakly, waiting for further guidance from the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report. Due to the government shutdown, the report release time has been postponed. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - **Corn Spot Price**: The price of Jinzhou Port is 2,140 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shekou Port is 2,310 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price of Harbin is 2,020 yuan, unchanged. The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - connected contract is 47, down 11. [4] - **Corn Starch Spot Price**: The price in Shandong is 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin is 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang is 2,460 yuan, down 20 yuan. The basis of Shandong's main - connected contract is 355, up 16. [4] - **Futures Price**: For corn futures, from October 13 to 14, 2025, the price of the November contract increased by 1 yuan (0.05%), the January contract increased by 5 yuan (0.24%), the March contract increased by 15 yuan (0.71%), the May contract increased by 10 yuan (0.46%), the July contract increased by 9 yuan (0.41%), and the September contract remained unchanged. For corn starch futures, the November contract decreased by 16 yuan (- 0.67%), the January contract decreased by 1 yuan (- 0.04%), the March contract increased by 6 yuan (0.25%), the May contract increased by 2 yuan (0.08%), the July contract increased by 3 yuan (0.12%), and the September contract decreased by 3 yuan (- 0.12%). The wheat average price remained unchanged. [4][7] Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factors**: The purchase by direct - affiliated warehouses of the China Grain Reserves Corporation restricts the price decline space; relevant national departments have intensively investigated the North China and Huang - Huaihai production areas and taken multiple measures to relieve the impact of rainfall on the harvest and listing of crops; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, and it is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure. [2] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the medium - term demand for corn for feed; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - finding or at the bottom; there are many trucks arriving in Shandong, and deep - processing enterprises generally purchase at reduced prices; the deteriorated corn in North China still impacts the price. [6] US Corn Market - **US Futures Price and Import Profit**: The price of CBOT corn main - connected contract is 413.25, up 2.75 (0.67%); the price of COBT soybean main - connected contract is 1,006.25, down 2 (- 0.2%); the price of CBOT wheat main - connected contract is 500.25, up 3.5 (0.7%). The duty - paid price of the US Gulf is 2,081.57 yuan, down 7.51 (- 0.36%), with an import profit of 248.43 yuan; the duty - paid price of the US West is 1,933.38 yuan, down 7.47 (- 0.38%), with an import profit of 396.62 yuan. [29]

Report Title - Nanhua Metal Daily: High-level Operation with Intensified Fluctuations [1] Report Date - October 15, 2025 [2] Market Review - On Tuesday, the rally in the precious metals sector stalled. Gold edged up, while silver rallied and then pulled back. European and US stocks fluctuated, and Bitcoin continued to decline. The silver lease rate dropped slightly, indicating a slight easing of the tightness in the physical silver market. However, dovish remarks from Fed officials continued to support precious metals, especially gold prices. Fed Chair Powell signaled a dovish stance, acknowledging that the economic outlook has not changed significantly since the September meeting and highlighting the prominent downside risks in the job market, suggesting that the window for rate cuts has opened. He also mentioned the possibility of halting quantitative tightening (QT) earlier due to recent signs of tightening liquidity, emphasizing the need to avoid a repeat of the "repo crisis" in 2019. Fed Governor Bowman explicitly predicted two more rate cuts by the end of the year. Fed 2025 voting member Collins said that a 25-basis-point rate cut might be appropriate. The "New Fed Wire" reported that the Fed is on a "rate-cutting track," setting the tone for a rate cut at the end of October. The market is betting on a further rate cut in December. Investors should continue to monitor the US "232" investigation into silver and palladium, with the results expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive issue of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on silver and palladium. Finally, the COMEX December 2025 gold contract closed at $4,159.6 per ounce, up 0.64%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at $50.345 per ounce, down 0.17%. The SHFE December 2025 gold contract closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%; the December 2025 silver contract closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, up 2.64% [2]. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations remained stable overall. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 2.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 0.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 6.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 93.5%. In terms of long-term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 1,021.45 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings decreased by 21.17 tons to 15,733.09 tons. In terms of inventories, SHFE silver inventories decreased by 44.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventories decreased by 43.6 tons to 1,124.4 tons per week [3]. This Week's Focus - In terms of data, investors should focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data this week. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. In terms of events, there will be a flurry of speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the US FOMC meeting on October 31. At 00:30 on Thursday, Fed Governor Milan will speak at the Nomura Research Forum; at 02:00, ECB President Lagarde will participate in a debate on the global economy organized by the International Monetary Fund; at 21:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak. Also at 02:00 on Thursday, the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions; at 00:15 on Saturday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak [4]. Nanhua's View - In the medium to long term, the outlook is bullish, but short-term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short-term trading with quick entry and exit. However, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to build long positions in the medium to long term. The resistance levels for London gold are $4,200 and then $4,300, with support in the $4,100 area. The resistance level for silver is $55, and the support level is $50 [5] Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan per gram | 938.98 | 11.42 | 1.23% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan per gram | 939.95 | 13.47 | 1.45% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars per ounce | 4,159.6 | 29.6 | 0.72% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan per kilogram | 11,533 | 2 | 0.02% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan per kilogram | 11,530 | 77 | 0.67% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars per ounce | 50.345 | -0.43 | -0.85% | | SHFE-TD Gold | Yuan per gram | -0.97 | -2.05 | -189.81% | | SHFE-TD Silver | Yuan per kilogram | 3 | -75 | 239.13% | | CME Gold-Silver Ratio | / | 82.6219 | 1.2827 | 1.58% | [6] Inventory and Position Table | | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilograms | 72,183 | 1,455 | 2.06% | | CME Gold Inventory | Tons | 1,233.586 | -2.0018 | -0.16% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lots | 228,459 | -11,537 | -4.81% | | SPDR Gold Position | Tons | 1,021.45 | 2.57 | 0.25% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,063.072 | -61.384 | -5.46% | | CME Silver Inventory | Tons | 16,037.977 | -141.8256 | -0.88% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Tons | 1,108.065 | -64.305 | -5.49% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lots | 467,690 | -27,889 | -5.63% | | SLV Silver Position | Tons | 15,733.091271 | -21.1697 | -0.13% | [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary | | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.0393 | -0.2051 | -0.21% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1408 | 0.0042 | 0.06% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Points | 46,270.46 | 202.88 | 0.44% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars per barrel | 58.7 | -0.79 | -1.33% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars per ton | 10,584.5 | -217.5 | -2.01% | | 10-Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.03 | -0.02 | -0.49% | | 10-Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.73 | -0.02 | -1.14% | | 10-2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.55 | 0.02 | 3.77% | [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Financial Futures - The current core issue in the economic recovery is the lack of effective demand. Future policies may be introduced to promote stable price recovery, and the key trigger for policy introduction may be a significant decline in economic data. The recent escalation of Sino-US trade friction may not repeat the situation in April, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress remains relatively high. The short - term view on the stock market is wide - range fluctuation, and the foreign exchange market's pricing logic may shift to a "geopolitical risk premium" - dominated model [1][4] - The stock market shows a defensive trading pattern, with high - dividend and low - rising cyclical industries being more resilient, and the overall sentiment is cautious. The short - term view on the stock market is wide - range oscillation due to multiple uncertainties [4] - The bond market shows a "stock - bond seesaw" effect. If the A - share market adjusts, it will be beneficial for the bond market. For the current period price at the upper edge of the oscillation range, some low - position long orders can be closed for profit, and some can be continued to be held [5] - The container shipping index futures price may continue to oscillate in the short term. The Maersk's price stability and the Rotterdam port strike support the price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try positive arbitrage [8] Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are operating at high levels with increased volatility. The dovish signals from the Fed support the prices, but investors need to pay attention to the "232" investigation results. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, and short - term operations should be cautious [9][11] - Copper prices have entered a high - level oscillation range. The support at 84,000 is effective. The price may oscillate between 86,000 - 88,000 without the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies [12][13] - Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short term considering the easing of tariff issues and interest - rate cut expectations. Alumina is in a weak position due to over - supply, and cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly. For zinc, the short - term logic is bearish, and positive arbitrage can be held [13][14][15] - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure from tariff issues. The fundamentals of nickel ore and new energy are different, and the price of nickel - iron may be weak. Stainless steel exports have positive factors, and the overall market needs to wait for a callback [16] - Tin prices are currently weak due to the overall market, but from a fundamental perspective, it is still bullish. It is recommended to wait for a callback to 278,000 yuan to enter the market [17] - Lead prices oscillate narrowly. The supply and demand of the industry chain are relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [17] Black Metals - For steel, the market is weak with high inventory and low demand. The price of iron ore may first rise and then fall, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is strengthening. The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are challenged by the contradiction between high supply and weak demand [18][20][22] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand. The short - term trend is downward adjustment, and the risk of falling below 60 dollars for Brent crude oil needs to be vigilant [23][24] - The profit of LPG's PDH on the disk is continuously shrinking. The domestic fundamentals change little, and the profit - shrinking drive still exists [25] - The PTA - PX market is dominated by macro events. The terminal demand has seasonal improvement but cannot drive the price up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral operations [26][27] - PP prices follow the cost side down. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] - PE prices are falling due to a pessimistic sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [32] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by macro factors and are moving downward. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene will be tightened in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [35] - For fuel oil, it is recommended to try shorting the cracking profit. The low - sulfur fuel oil price has broken through the support level and is moving downward. The asphalt price may have a last upward opportunity this year after the digestion of crude oil's negative factors [35][36][37] - The prices of rubber and 20 - number rubber are under pressure from both supply and demand sides. The short - term view is weak oscillation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [37][38][39] - The prices of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are weak in the near term. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high in the long term, the inventory of glass is high, and the demand for caustic soda is not as expected in the short term [39][40][41] - For pulp, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity of Russian needles. The price is restricted by factors such as high - level port inventory and weak downstream demand. For logs, the deep - discount logic is repeating, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][44] - The price of propylene is affected by the cost side, and the spot price has a slight increase. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has a slight improvement [44][45] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening trends [47] - The oilseed market is dominated by Sino - US trade relations. The price of domestic soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade policies. It is recommended to hold the sold call option on M2601 [47][48][49] - The price of vegetable oils is weak due to the influence of the external market and crude oil. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on palm oil after a callback [50] - The price of soybeans may oscillate in the short term with limited upward space. It is recommended to short at the 4000 - level [51][52] - The prices of corn and starch are continuously weak. For the 11 - contract of corn, the short - hedge positions can be gradually reduced according to the spot sales progress [52] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Key events include China's response to the US 301 investigation, Li Qiang's emphasis on expanding domestic demand, and the Fed's dovish signals on interest - rate cuts and possible early termination of balance - sheet reduction. The core issue in economic recovery is the lack of effective demand, and future policies may be introduced to promote price stability. The Sino - US trade friction may not repeat the April situation, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress is high [1] Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. The Fed's dovish signals support the RMB to some extent, but the short - term influence of Sino - US trade friction on the exchange rate is limited. The foreign exchange market's pricing logic may shift to a "geopolitical risk premium" - dominated model [1][2] Stock Index - The stock market showed a defensive trading pattern on the previous day, with high - dividend and low - rising cyclical industries being more resilient. The overall sentiment is cautious due to Sino - US mutual measures. The short - term view is wide - range oscillation [3][4] Treasury Bond - The bond market showed a "stock - bond seesaw" effect on the previous day. If the A - share market adjusts, it will be beneficial for the bond market. For the current period price at the upper edge of the oscillation range, some low - position long orders can be closed for profit, and some can be continued to be held [5] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures price rose on the previous day. The Maersk's price stability at the end of October and the Rotterdam port strike support the price. The short - term price may continue to oscillate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try positive arbitrage [6][8] Commodities Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They are operating at high levels with increased volatility. The dovish signals from the Fed support the prices. Investors need to pay attention to the "232" investigation results. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, and short - term operations should be cautious [9][11] - **Copper**: The price has entered a high - level oscillation range. The support at 84,000 is effective. The spot market shows weak downstream buying power, and the futures market may oscillate between 86,000 - 88,000 without the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies [12][13] - **Aluminum and Related Industries**: Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short term considering the easing of tariff issues and interest - rate cut expectations. Alumina is in a weak position due to over - supply, and cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly. For zinc, the short - term logic is bearish, and positive arbitrage can be held [13][14][15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices are under pressure from tariff issues. The fundamentals of nickel ore and new energy are different, and the price of nickel - iron may be weak. Stainless steel exports have positive factors, and the overall market needs to wait for a callback [16] - **Tin**: The price is currently weak due to the overall market, but from a fundamental perspective, it is still bullish. It is recommended to wait for a callback to 278,000 yuan to enter the market [17] - **Lead**: The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand of the industry chain are relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [17] Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The steel market is weak with high inventory and low demand. The price of iron ore may first rise and then fall, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The implementation of China's special port - fee policy on US ships eases the concern about iron ore transportation costs [18][19][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is strengthening. The downstream steel market's supply - demand contradiction is deteriorating, and the cost support of coke is weakening. The long - term supply of coking coal is restricted, and the price's upward space depends on the steel market's supply - demand balance [20][21][22] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent. The downstream demand is not as expected during the peak season, and the cost support is challenged [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand. The short - term trend is downward adjustment, and the risk of falling below 60 dollars for Brent crude oil needs to be vigilant [23][24] - **LPG**: The profit of PDH on the disk is continuously shrinking. The domestic fundamentals change little, and the profit - shrinking drive still exists [25] - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro events. The terminal demand has seasonal improvement but cannot drive the price up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral operations [26][27] - **PP**: The price follows the cost side down. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] - **PE**: The price is falling due to a pessimistic sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [32] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices are affected by macro factors and are moving downward. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene will be tightened in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [35] - **Fuel Oil**: It is recommended to try shorting the cracking profit. The low - sulfur fuel oil price has broken through the support level and is moving downward. The asphalt price may have a last upward opportunity this year after the digestion of crude oil's negative factors [35][36][37] - **Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: The prices are under pressure from both supply and demand sides. The short - term view is weak oscillation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [37][38][39] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices are weak in the near term. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high in the long term, the inventory of glass is high, and the demand for caustic soda is not as expected in the short term [39][40][41] - **Pulp and Logs**: For pulp, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity of Russian needles. The price is restricted by factors such as high - level port inventory and weak downstream demand. For logs, the deep - discount logic is repeating, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][44] - **Propylene**: The price is affected by the cost side, and the spot price has a slight increase. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has a slight improvement [44][45] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening trends [47] - **Oilseeds**: The market is dominated by Sino - US trade relations. The price of domestic soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade policies. It is recommended to hold the sold call option on M2601 [47][48][49] - **Vegetable Oils**: The price is weak due to the influence of the external market and crude oil. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on palm oil after a callback [50] - **Soybeans**: The price may oscillate in the short term with limited upward space. It is recommended to short at the 4000 - level [51][52] - **Corn and Starch**: The prices are continuously weak. For the 11 - contract of corn, the short - hedge positions can be gradually reduced according to the spot sales progress [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the changes in capital market sentiment. If the A-share market starts to adjust, it will be beneficial for the bond market to rise. The recommended operation is to partially take profits on long positions at low levels and hold some to observe if it can continue to rise. For those with no positions, it is advisable to go long on dips [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher, with all varieties closing up. Most spot bond yields declined, with a larger decline in the long - end yields in the afternoon, but the decline narrowed at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 at around 1.31%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 9.1 billion yuan, with a net injection of 9.1 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today. Industry insiders suggest that a document to strengthen the regulation of photovoltaic production capacity may be issued soon [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The capital market sentiment changed again today. In the morning, the stock market opened higher while the bond market sentiment was low. After the opening, bond futures once retraced deeply, and then the bond market recovered as the stock market declined. In the afternoon, the sharp decline of the stock market drove up the gains of medium - and long - term bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect again. From the market trends in the past two days, the A - share market has some adjustment pressure due to the excessive rise of the main sectors. With November 1st being an important node for the China - US meeting, the capital market may have a certain cautious attitude before then. If the A - share market starts to adjust in the future, it will be conducive to the rise of the bond market [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 13 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.386 | 102.366 | 0.02 | | TF2512 | 105.765 | 105.665 | 0.1 | | T2512 | 108.19 | 108.05 | 0.14 | | TL2512 | 114.74 | 114.37 | 0.37 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0117 | 0.0017 | - 0.0134 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.002 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0631 | 0.082 | - 0.0189 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2925 | 0.3522 | - 0.0597 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 74633 | 74436 | 197 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 155962 | 147179 | 8783 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 263295 | 252554 | 10741 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 180122 | 172579 | 7543 | | TS Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 32167 | 31658 | 509 | | TF Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 73462 | 60280 | 13182 | | T Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 125811 | 85927 | 39884 | | TL Main Transaction Volume (lots) | 155935 | 124744 | 31191 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply surplus and geopolitical issues, an unexpected decline in the CP October contract price, the recurrence of Sino - US contradictions, and a loose domestic market with stable supply - demand and weak combustion demand [2] - Bullish factors include a small rebound in the crude oil market, the expansion of PDH profits supporting demand, and the widening FN spread attracting cracking demand [3] - Bearish factors are the persistent supply surplus of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weak performance of both the outer - market propane and domestic spot [2] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 3800 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.39% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.37% [1] LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and fear of price drops, sell PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits and sell PG2511C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory, buy PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs and sell PG2511P3800 put options at a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Industry Data Price - Brent crude was at $63.39 on October 13, 2025, up $1.3 from the previous day and down $2.76 from the week - ago level. WTI was at $59.14, up $1.3 and down $2.88 respectively [5] - LPG's main contract closed at 4082 yuan/ton on October 13, 2025, up 12 yuan from the previous day and down 155 yuan from the week - ago level [5] Spread - FEI - MOPJ M1 was - 86.30 on October 13, 2025, down 19.43 from the previous day and 14.67 from the week - ago level [5] - LPG - FEI was 49.85, up 150.25 from the previous day and 198.37 from the week - ago level [5] Monthly Spread - LPG11 - 12 was 107 on October 13, 2025, up 29 from the previous day and the week - ago level [5] - FEI M1 - M2 was - 13.63, down 0.38 from the previous day and up 0.63 from the week - ago level [5] Ratio - MB/WTI was 0.44 on October 13, 2025, down 0.03 from the previous day and up 0.01 from the week - ago level [5] - FEI/Brent was 0.60, down 0.03 from the previous day and 0.02 from the week - ago level [5] Disk Profit - The disk import profit - FEI was - 400.55 on October 13, 2025, up 14.53 from the previous day and down 152.04 from the week - ago level [5] - The PDH disk profit - PG was 278.7, down 42.8 from the previous day and up 19.25 from the week - ago level [5] Spot Profit - The Asian naphtha cracking profit was - 32.4996 on October 13, 2025, up 7.99 from the previous day and 17.54 from the week - ago level [5] - The Asian propane cracking profit was 47.0266, up 30.56 from the previous day and 53.52 from the week - ago level [5] Freight - The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 62.667 on October 13, 2025, down 1 from the previous day and 7.5 from the week - ago level [5] - The freight from the US to Europe was 67.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and 11.625 from the week - ago level [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the current trend of propylene include sufficient supply but insufficient demand in the main downstream PP, small price differences between PP powder, granules, and propylene, and low acceptance of high - priced propylene. Most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene. Also, the PDH cost has collapsed, with the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly [3]. - The positive factor is that the cracking failure of Yulong has led to a slight reduction in the supply in the Shandong market [3]. - The negative factors are that after the decline of propane, the PDH profit has expanded, but propylene and PP cannot accept high profits, which exerts pressure. The spot market is also weak, with spot prices falling continuously, and high - priced products are still resisted [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6000 - 6400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 0.0797 and the current volatility's historical percentage (3 - year) at 0.537 [2]. Propylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices according to the enterprise's inventory to lock in profits, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 6500 - 6600 for PL2601. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6600) to collect premiums can reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a 50% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular inventory for procurement is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry price of 6000 for PL2601. Selling put options (PL2601P5900) to collect premiums can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a 25% hedging ratio and an advisable entry range of 40 - 60 [2]. Industrial Data Summarization - The report provides a large amount of data on upstream, mid - stream, and downstream prices, as well as profit margins and price differentials of propylene and related products from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025, including Brent, WTI, various raw material prices, propylene market prices in different regions, downstream product prices, and corresponding profit indicators [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, precious metals are surging rapidly. It is recommended that existing long positions be held cautiously, and new long positions should be entered with caution. Short - term investors are advised to either observe the market or conduct quick - in - quick - out trades. Price pullbacks are considered opportunities to build long positions for the medium - to long - term. The resistance levels for London gold are 4200 and then 4300, with support around 4100. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals sector continued its strong performance. The lease rates of silver and palladium remained high after a sharp increase, and the lendable quantity of SLV ETF was extremely low, indicating shortages in the spot market and potential short - squeeze issues. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive topic of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on these metals. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $50.775 per ounce, up 7.47%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 1.99%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 2.84% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 98.3%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 95.5%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 49.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 48.6%. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1018.88 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 310.5 tons to 15754.26 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 44.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: This week, focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. - Events: There will be numerous speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the October 31 FOMC meeting. Key speeches include those by Fed Governor Bowman on Tuesday at 20:45, Fed Chair Powell at 23:30, Fed Governor Waller on Wednesday at 03:25, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins at 03:30, Fed Governor Milan on Thursday at 00:30, ECB President Lagarde at 02:00, and Fed Governor Waller at 21:00. Additionally, the IMF will release the "Global Economic Outlook Report" on Tuesday at 21:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book on Thursday at 02:00, and 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on Saturday at 00:15 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 2.88%; SGX gold TD was at 926.48 yuan per gram, up 3.2%; CME gold main contract was at $4130 per ounce, up 2.34%. - SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 4.05%; SGX silver TD was at 11453 yuan per kilogram, up 3.56%; CME silver main contract was at $50.775 per ounce, up 6.86%. - SHFE - TD gold was at 1.08 yuan per gram, down 71.73%; SHFE - TD silver was at 78 yuan per kilogram, down 428.57%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 81.3392, down 4.23% [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1235.5878 tons, down 0.54%; SHFE gold positions were 239996 lots, up 0.62%; SPDR gold positions were 1018.88 tons, up 0.17%. - SHFE silver inventory was 1124.456 tons, down 3.82%; CME silver inventory was 16179.8026 tons, down 0.43%; SGX silver inventory was 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver positions were 495579 lots, up 7.71%; SLV silver positions were 15754.260981 tons, up 2.01% [15][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 99.2444, up 0.41%; the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1366, up 0.18%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 46067.58 points, up 1.29%; WTI crude oil spot was $59.49 per barrel, up 1%; LmeS copper 03 was $10802 per ton, up 4.13%. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05%, down 2.17%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.75%, down 2.78%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [22].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 14, 2025 - Analysts: Bian Shuyang, Kang Quangui Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has increased the bullish sentiment in the soybean market, leading to a halt in the decline of spot and futures prices or a slight rebound. However, the fundamental pressure cannot be ignored in the short term, and the support of the sentiment boost on prices is expected to decrease, with the risk of a renewed decline [3]. - The domestic soybean market is currently in the peak season of new crop harvest and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. The prices of new low and medium protein soybeans are gradually falling, and there is still a possibility of further decline as the listing volume continues to increase [3]. - The soybean futures price has been fluctuating recently, supported by the sentiment of trade deterioration and pressured by the sufficient supply in the fundamentals, with limited actual gains. Attention should be paid to the risk of decline after the accumulation of fundamental pressure [3]. Section Summaries Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the Soybean No. 1 contract 11 in October is predicted to be between 3,850 and 4,000, with a current volatility of 10.17% and a historical percentile of 24.3% [2]. - **Risk Strategies**: - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, such as growers with a high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price rebounds to the range of 4,000 - 4,050 to lock in planting profits. Also, selling the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and then go long on the A2603 and A2605 contracts [2]. Market Data - **Daily Price Changes**: On October 13, 2025, compared with October 10, 2025, the closing prices of various soybean futures contracts showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 contract 11 increased by 8 to 3,961, with a daily increase of 0.20%; the closing price of contract 01 increased by 19 to 3,967, with a daily increase of 0.48% [4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The report also presents data on soybean price trends, seasonal changes in trading volume, and seasonal changes in registered warehouse receipts, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [6][7][11] Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade relations has provided emotional support for domestic soybeans [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Attention should be paid to the results of today's auctions, policy procurement trends, and the short - term support from the purchase demand driven by the return of grain in two - way auctions [3][5]