Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Monthly price range for soybean meal: 2800 - 3300 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.8%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 3.8% [3] - Monthly price range for rapeseed meal: 2350 - 2750 yuan, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.6%, and historical percentile (3 - year) is 15.3% [3] Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory, to prevent losses from inventory and price decline, sell 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 yuan [3] - For feed mills with low inventory, to prevent cost increase from price rise, buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 yuan [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices, sell 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 yuan [3] Group 3: Core Contradictions Soybean Meal - Short - term: Argentina's export tax exemption policy has a negative impact on the market. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a maximum exportable volume of 10 million tons to China. The policy may support domestic soybean meal cost by approaching Brazilian prices [4] - Long - term: Focus on the impact of Sino - US trade relations on soybean supply [4] Rapeseed Meal - Short - term: Follows soybean meal, but will be stronger than soybean products before November due to China's extension of anti - dumping investigation on Canada. After November, it will face the issue of Australian rapeseed arrivals, and inventory may increase by the end of the year [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gap [7] - Brazil's export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [7] Bearish Factors - High inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, increasing oil mill crush volume, and seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal but is slightly stronger [4] - After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a dominant supply pressure narrative in the near - month market [5] Group 5: Futures Prices and Spreads Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: Closing price is 2928 yuan, down 106 yuan (-3.49%) [8] - Soybean meal 05: Closing price is 2733 yuan, down 49 yuan (-1.76%) [8] - Soybean meal 09: Closing price is 2843 yuan, down 48 yuan (-1.66%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 01: Closing price is 2447 yuan, down 81 yuan (-3.2%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 05: Closing price is 2328 yuan, down 45 yuan (-1.9%) [8] - Rapeseed meal 09: Closing price is 2411 yuan, down 36 yuan (-1.47%) [8] - CBOT yellow soybeans: Closing price is 1011.25, unchanged [8] - Offshore RMB: Closing price is 7.1178, up 0.0241 (0.34%) [8] Spreads - M01 - 05 spread is 195 yuan, down 57 yuan; RM01 - 05 spread is 119 yuan, down 36 yuan [9] - M05 - 09 spread is - 110 yuan, down 1 yuan; RM05 - 09 spread is - 83 yuan, down 9 yuan [9] - M09 - 01 spread is - 85 yuan, up 58 yuan; RM09 - 01 spread is - 36 yuan, up 45 yuan [9] - Soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2930 yuan, down 50 yuan; basis is 2 yuan, up 56 yuan [9] - Rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2655 yuan, up 145 yuan; basis is 127 yuan, up 139 yuan [9] - Spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 275 yuan, down 50 yuan; futures price difference is 481 yuan, down 25 yuan [9] Group 6: Import Costs and Profits - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%): 4423.6298 yuan/ton, down 74.2222 yuan daily, up 0.0177 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import cost: 3934.29 yuan/ton, down 11.28 yuan daily, down 121.95 yuan weekly [10] - Cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%): - 719.2894 yuan, up 9.2866 yuan daily, up 14.2315 yuan weekly [10] - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%): - 593.4053 yuan, down 74.2222 yuan daily, down 25.1891 yuan weekly [10] - Brazilian soybean import profit: 135.1432 yuan, up 45.0221 yuan daily, up 3.9232 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (on - paper): 987 yuan, up 56 yuan daily, up 224 yuan weekly [10] - Canadian rapeseed import profit (spot): 1169 yuan, up 62 yuan daily, up 244 yuan weekly [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of pure benzene and styrene are still weak, with low valuations but high inventories, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. In the short term, they mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil and are expected to move in a range. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pure benzene is 5600 - 6200, and for styrene is 6800 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile in 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about styrene price decline, they can short styrene futures (EB2511, 25% hedging ratio, entry range 7000 - 7100) and sell call options (EB2511C7100, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 70 - 90) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, they can buy styrene futures (EB2511, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 6800 - 6850) and sell put options (EB2511P6800, 75% hedging ratio, entry range 120 - 150) [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Supply**: In the pure benzene market, two sets of devices in East China postponed their maintenance plans, two long - shut small pure benzene devices in Shandong plan to resume production, and there are import transactions from Europe to China, so the supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. For styrene, two new large - scale devices had short - term shutdowns, and the supply continued to tighten in September but is expected to increase monthly after September [4]. - **Demand**: Downstream production and maintenance coexist in the pure benzene market, and the terminal is likely to have an off - peak season this year, so the pattern of inventory accumulation is difficult to change. The terminal demand for styrene has limited growth, and the pick - up is average [4]. 3.3利多 and利空解读 - **利多 Factors**: As of September 22, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 10.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.15%. Pre - holiday stocking led to destocking of pure benzene ports. In September, two sets of 600,000 - ton styrene devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical were under maintenance, and the supply of styrene continued to tighten [5]. - **利空 Factors**: It is heard that there are import transactions from Europe to China in November and December, and the import volume of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is expected to return to a high level. The maintenance plans of some factories' devices in East China were postponed, and two long - shut pure benzene devices in Shandong plan to resume production in mid - October. Two large - scale styrene devices in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter [6][9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Changes - **Basis Changes**: - **Pure Benzene**: The basis of East China - BZ03 on September 23 was - 30, up 36 from the previous day; the basis of East China - BZ04 was 10, up 41 from the previous day [10]. - **Styrene**: The basis of East China - EB09 on September 23 was 81, down 100 from the previous day; the basis of East China - EB10 was 34, down 34 from the previous day [10]. - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of pure benzene and styrene in various periods generally showed a downward trend, such as the spot spread of pure benzene decreased by 35 yuan/ton from September 22 to September 23 [11]. 3.5 Industrial Chain Price - **Pure Benzene**: The prices of pure benzene in various markets and futures contracts generally declined on September 23 compared with the previous day. For example, the price of BZ2603 decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the price of the pure benzene East China market decreased by 15 yuan/ton [12]. - **Styrene**: The prices of styrene in various regions and futures contracts also declined. For example, the price of EB2510 decreased by 76 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Related Products**: The prices and profits of related products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline also changed to varying degrees [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]

南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/23 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511- ...

股指期货日报 2025年9月23日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 风止则树静 市场回顾 今日股指走势震荡，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.06%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨3729.00亿元。 期指方面，IF、IH放量上涨，IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1、近日，市场监管总局约谈货拉拉，要求其严格遵守《中华人民共和国反垄断法》等法律规定，落实反垄断 合规主体责任，及时规范经营行为，公平参与市场竞争，维护货车司机、消费者等相关主体合法权益，推动 平台规则和算法公平公正、公开透明，促进行业规范健康发展。 2、市场监管总局会同国家网信办起草的《直播电商监督管理办法》今年6月至7月向社会公开征求意见，目前 已进入法制审查程序，近期将正式发布出台。 3、工信部：开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新赛道，创建一批未来产业先导区。 核心观点 期前夕。短期继续观望为主。 策略推荐 观望为主 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly on Monday and reached new highs. The decline of the US dollar index, the selling of US Treasury bonds, and the drop of Bitcoin reflect the erosion of the US dollar's credit and the security flaws of virtual currencies, increasing the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The Fed's monetary policy and the performance of the US stock market may increase the risk of a bubble in the US stock market or economic stagflation, further boosting the demand for gold as a hedge. The report suggests a long - term bullish outlook, and a short - term strong pattern for London gold and silver. It maintains the idea of buying on dips, but advises caution for existing long positions due to the approaching National Day holiday [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 2.03%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.315 per ounce, up 3.17%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 846.5 yuan per gram, up 2.01%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10,317 yuan per kilogram, up 3.81% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 13.8%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 52.7%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.5%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1,000.57 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 10.8 tons to 1,148.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1,252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Key data to watch include the final value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests, and at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will speak [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 855.44 yuan per gram, up 3%; SGX gold TD is at 839.93 yuan per gram, up 1.69%; CME gold main contract is at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 1.66%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 3.79%; SGX silver TD is at 10,275 yuan per kilogram, up 0.31%; CME silver main contract is at $44.315 per ounce, up 2.19%. SHFE - TD gold is at 6.57 yuan per gram, up 44.08%; SHFE - TD silver is at 74 yuan per kilogram, up 29.17%. CME gold - silver ratio is 85.3255, down 0.52% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 59,013 kilograms, up 2.76%; CME gold inventory is 1,234.2735 tons, up 0.56%; SHFE gold holdings are 260,256 lots, up 8.36%; SPDR gold holdings are 1,000.57 tons, up 0.6%. SHFE silver inventory is 1,148.624 tons, down 0.93%; CME silver inventory is 16,309.9981 tons, up 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1,252.41 tons, up 0.33%; SHFE silver holdings are 504,051 lots, up 16.15%; SLV silver holdings are 15,368.895541 tons, up 1.08% [18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 97.3263, down 0.33%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1178, up 0.34%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46,381.54 points, up 0.14%; WTI crude oil spot is at $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10,002 per ton, up 0.06%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.15%, up 0.24%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.78%, up 1.71%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.54%, down 5.26% [21].

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/23 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石11合约月度价格预测（10月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 780-850 | 21.06% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（10月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2511 | 空 | 25% | 840-850 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2511-C-850 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2511 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 关性 | | | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 60% | 67000-7 1000 | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 | | | | | | | | 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | | | | | | | | 涨导致采购成本上涨的风险 | 期货合约锁定采购成本 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出看跌期权 | 40% | LC2511- | | | | | | | | | P-68000 | | | | 产品价格有相关性：未来有生 | | 期货 | 依据采购进度卖出期 | 20% | 依据采购 | | | 产成品价格有相 | 产电池材料的计划，担心未来 | 为防止采到碳酸锂后库存减 | | 货主力合约 | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Research team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price range forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current volatility historical percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price range forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.91% - Current volatility historical percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main contract futures to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts to lock in production costs according to the production plan, with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel in the Shanghai market oscillated weakly during the day, and the non - ferrous metals market as a whole was weak - In the nickel ore market, the Indonesian Energy Ministry imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies on September 18, with an estimated impact on nickel ore quotas of less than 3 million tons. As the quota approval for the next year approaches in October, concerns about the stability of ore supply have increased - In the new energy sector, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to extend the cobalt export ban, and the total export quotas for 2025 and 2026 have been announced, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The market circulation is tight, inventories are low, and there are still inquiries - Nickel iron prices have remained firm recently, with no downward driving force under cost support - In the stainless steel market, there has been repeated bargaining during the week. The spot market is in a contradiction, trying to support prices but facing weak demand. The wait - and - see sentiment is strong before the holiday [3] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, including elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - Stainless steel has seen continuous de - stocking for several weeks - Indonesia's forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [5] Bearish Factors - High inventory of pure nickel - Sino - US tariff disturbances persist - Uncertainty about the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented - Weak spot trading in the stainless steel market [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel Market - Closing prices of nickel futures contracts decreased, with the main contract closing at 120,730 yuan/ton, down 1% - Trading volume decreased by 19.97% to 52,899 lots - Open interest decreased by 15.70% to 37,993 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.28% to 25,464 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 3.8% to - 550 yuan/ton [5] Stainless Steel Market - Closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts showed mixed trends, with the main contract closing at 12,890 yuan/ton, unchanged - Trading volume increased by 0.29% to 139,017 lots - Open interest decreased by 4.71% to 123,891 lots - Warehouse receipts decreased by 0.41% to 89,008 tons - The basis of the main contract decreased by 7.04% to 660 yuan/ton [5] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory of nickel: 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons - LME nickel inventory: 230,454 tons, an increase of 1,554 tons - Stainless steel social inventory: 897.2 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons - Nickel pig iron inventory: 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Group 8: Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]