1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It points out that the short - term bond market lacks positive drivers, but after continuous declines, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. One can attempt bottom - fishing, stagger the purchase intervals for long positions, and control positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated in the morning and tumbled in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. Spot bond yields rose across the board, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term. The open market had a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan. The money market tightened marginally, and the DR001 rebounded to 1.44% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - Powell stated that the slowdown in the labor market prompts the Fed to cut interest rates. One must remain vigilant about inflation, there is no risk - free path for the Fed, and the stock market seems to be quite highly valued [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The market continued its weakness from the previous day in the morning, and the decline widened in the afternoon due to the rise of A - shares. The central bank continued a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the money market tightened marginally. With 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing tomorrow, attention should be paid to the central bank's renewal scale. Factors such as the new rules on fund redemption fees and the strong stock market still suppress the bond market [3] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - For TS2512, the price on September 24, 2025, was 102.324, down 0.028 from the previous day, and the contract position increased by 476 to 75,884 hands. For TF2512, the price was 105.54, down 0.105, and the position increased by 1,924 to 146,202 hands. For T2512, the price was 107.62, down 0.135, and the position decreased by 40 to 246,217 hands. For TL2512, the price was 113.99, down 0.55, and the position increased by 1,459 to 168,081 hands. Trading volumes of all contracts decreased [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0016367) [2] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: Securities Regulatory Permission [2011] No. 1290 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The stock market oscillated upward today, with small and medium - cap stocks rising significantly, mainly driven by Alibaba's positive news which led to the overall upward movement of the science and technology sector. The main contracts of IC and IM index futures corresponding to small and medium - cap indexes both rose by more than 3%. The basis increased significantly, and there was a phenomenon of short - sellers leaving the market considering the open interest. The overall stock index was still running below the previous high. [5] - Today, the total trading volume of the two markets narrowed to about 2.3 trillion yuan. In a market with shrinking volume driven by structural factors, the sustainability of the stock index rebound remains to be seen. It is not advisable to enter the market aggressively to chase the high before the holiday. Considering the previous day's market, there is still optimistic sentiment supporting the short - term market. It is expected that the stock index will continue to oscillate around the previous high central point. The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and see. [5] Market Review Summary - Today, the stock index trended upward. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.02%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 16.7598 billion yuan. In the futures market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume. [3] Important Information Summary - On September 24, at the 2025 Hangzhou Yunqi Conference, Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA reached a cooperation in the Physical AI field. Alibaba Cloud's artificial intelligence platform PAI will integrate NVIDIA's Physical AI software stack, providing enterprise users with full - link platform services such as data pre - processing, simulation data generation, model training and evaluation, robot reinforcement learning, and simulation testing, further shortening the development cycle of applications such as embodied intelligence and assisted driving. [4] - Alibaba Cloud announced the launch of Qwen3 - Max, the largest and most powerful model developed by the Tongyi Qianwen team to date. [4] Index Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Percentage Change (%) | 1.69 | 0.94 | 3.90 | 3.21 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.6745 | 6.2124 | 17.718 | 29.362 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 2.4218 | - 0.9047 | - 0.4626 | - 3.5404 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.37 | 9.8305 | 25.5972 | 36.5491 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.314 | - 0.3523 | - 0.589 | - 2.7949 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Percentage Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Percentage Change (%) | 1.80 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 5.18 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 23267.84 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | - 1675.98 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Before the holiday, the market sentiment was cautious, with the black - series commodities reducing positions on the pre - holiday disk and price fluctuations decreasing. The current contradictions in iron ore are not significant. The supply of iron ore shipments has recovered to a medium - high level, and steel mills are replenishing stocks before the holiday, resulting in a tight balance in overall demand. On the demand side, the marginal profit of steel mills has slightly recovered, the inventory of rebar has marginally eased, and the contradictions have been alleviated, but increased rainfall in the South is unfavorable for demand. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and future attention should be paid to whether the demand can further increase. Currently, overseas orders support the price. After the interest rate cut, trading is expected to be closer to the fundamentals, with prices expected to fluctuate without a strong trend. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **October Price Forecast for Iron Ore 11 Contract**: The price forecast range is 780 - 850, the current at - the - money option IV is 20.94%, and the historical volatility quantile is 11.3% [2] - **October Iron Ore Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2511, short, 25%, entry range 840 - 850) and sell call options to collect premiums (I2511 - C - 850, 30%, sell on rallies) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2511, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2511 - P - 790, 40%, sell on rallies) [2] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Before the holiday, the market was cautious, with reduced positions in the black - series commodity market and smaller price fluctuations. Iron ore supply has recovered, and steel mills are restocking, maintaining a tight balance in demand. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered, and rebar inventory has eased, but southern rainfall affects demand. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are strong, but inventory is accumulating. After the interest rate cut, trading will be more fundamental - based, and prices will fluctuate without a clear trend. Position reduction is recommended before the holiday [3] - **Positive Factors** - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and two more cuts are expected this year, with global financial conditions being loose and the manufacturing PMI rising [4] - Hot - rolled coils have regained export profits after price drops [4] - Steel mill profits have slightly recovered [4] - Rebar inventory has decreased, and industrial chain contradictions have not further accumulated, releasing some risks [4] - There are expectations of economic stimulus due to weak domestic economic data [4] - **Negative Factors** - Steel inventory remains high under high hot - metal production, putting pressure on the fundamentals [4] - Iron ore shipments have increased, and non - mainstream shipments are at a seasonal high [4] Iron Ore Price and Index Data - **Contract Closing Prices and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 803.5, the 05 contract at 783, and the 09 contract at 762. The 01 basis was - 9.5, the 05 basis was 11, and the 09 basis was 32 [5][6] - **Spot Prices**: On September 24, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 794, Rizhao Carajás fines was 929, and Rizhao Super Special fines was 720 [6] - **Platts Index**: On September 23, 2025, the Platts 58% index was 95.3, the Platts 62% index was 106.2, and the Platts 65% index was 120.15 [7] Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Production and Transportation Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 241.02, the 45 - port desulfurization volume was 339.17, the global shipment volume was 3324.8, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2693.3, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 2675 [13] - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the 45 - port inventory was 13801.08, the 247 - steel mill inventory was 9309.43, and the 247 - steel mill available days were 31.3 [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content **Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies** - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders with high oil and fat inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - **Refineries with low procurement inventory**: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - **Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices**: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. **Market Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. **Market Price Data** - **Palm Oil**: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月24日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格整体呈现冲高回落走势，反映为上涨动能的减弱。盘中伦敦金最高上摸3791附近，伦敦银亦 接近44.5。随着国内国庆假期临近，以及前期贵金属涨幅较大，建议前多减仓过节，节中将公布重磅美非农 与ISM PMI数据。周边美指与1Y美债收益率震荡，10Y美债收益率则回落，比特币延续弱势，原油回升一定 程度增加短期通胀压力并抑制近端货币政策降息预期与贵金属价格。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3796.9 美元/盎司，+0.58%；美白银2512合约收报于44.265美元/盎司，+0.12%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收 855.44元/克，+1.%；SHFE白银2512合约收10349元/千克，+1.78%。消息面，周三凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔 讲话，指出美股估值偏高，并再次强调当前经济面临通胀上行与就业市场疲软的双重压力，但对10月是否降 息仍未作出明确表态。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月维持利率不变概率7%，降息25个基点的概率为93 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures (EC) first declined and then slightly increased in a volatile manner. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined to varying degrees. Near the National Day holiday, some investors gradually closed their positions, and the trading sentiment was relatively calm. The spot cabin quotes of major shipping companies on the European line continued to decline, and the futures price valuation decreased slightly. In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue the volatile trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with positions but full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about freight rate decline, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at the entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For those with empty positions and hoping to prevent freight rate increase and fix booking costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at the entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - The EC2510 contract saw a reduction of 2531 long positions to 23345 and a reduction of 2882 short positions to 24440. The trading volume decreased by 16714 to 34452 (bilateral). The spot cabin quotes of major shipping companies on the European line continued to decline, and the futures price valuation decreased slightly. The futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be monitored [3]. 利多解读 - Israel will prevent the "Global Resilience Fleet" from reaching the Gaza Strip, which may have an impact on shipping in the region [4]. 利空解读 - MSC and CMA CGM continued to lower the recent spot cabin quotes on the European line, and the market cargo volume was relatively insufficient. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different trends for different contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and spreads of different EC contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.) are presented, showing different price trends and spread changes [7]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On October 2, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route was $875, up $10 from the previous period, and the 40GP total quote was $1470, up $20. MSC's 20GP total quote decreased by $60 to $890, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $100 to $1490. Hapag - Lloyd's 20GP total quote was adjusted down by $50 to $935, and the 40GP total quote was adjusted down by $100 to $1435 [9]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX comprehensive freight rate indices for European and US - West routes all showed declines, with the SCFIS European route down 12.87%, the SCFIS US - West route down 11.57%, etc. [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - The waiting times of ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian decreased on September 23 compared with September 22, while the waiting times of Long Beach and Savannah increased [16]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships all decreased on September 23 compared with September 22, and the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages decreased from 25 to 15 [24].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - New grain seasonal supply is loose, putting pressure on spot prices; short - term supply is limited but expectations are weak, and the enthusiasm of middle and downstream buyers to enter the market is limited; the soybean No.1 futures have broken through the downward trend again, with active contracts increasing positions and trading volume; the resumption of auctions has increased market supply pressure [3] - The approaching of double festivals may delay the price decline; the National Food and Material Reserves Administration emphasizes the importance of autumn grain procurement and project construction [3] - The resumption of the domestic soybean auction on September 26, 2025, with a sales volume of 19,349 tons, increases the pressure on the spot market [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No.1 11 - contract in the monthly period is 3850 - 4000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a current volatility historical percentile of 31.4% [2] 2. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new beans after autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the soybean No.1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4000 - 4050 [2] - When there is a concentrated listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio and an entry range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] 3. Market Price Changes - From September 22 to September 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No.1 contracts (11, 01, 03, 05, 07, 09) all declined, with daily declines ranging from 22 to 36 and daily decline rates ranging from 0.56% to 0.92% [3][7]

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/24 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力驱动价格下行，东北多地深加工企业继续下调新粮报价，华北地区深加工（除山东）价格走 弱； 玉米需求端整体稳定，进口压力有限； 当前玉米上量有限，现货价格下跌幅度较小，使得提前收获地区获益，后期价格压力将逐步增加； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； 【利多解读】 1、山东深加工企业报价坚挺； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、近日，国家粮食和物资储备局举行2025年全国秋粮收购暨粮食产业项目推进工作会议。会议指出，抓好粮 食收购和项目建设，对保持粮食市场平稳运行、加快粮食产业高质量发展具有重要意义。做好秋粮收购工 作，需在提升收储能力等五方面下功夫，坚决守住农民"种粮卖得出"的底线，不断提升国家粮食安全保障能 力。 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期，供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力； 2、多地深加工企业下调新粮收购报价，尤其黑龙江地区新粮报价较初期有连续下跌过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the alumina market lies in the conflict between the tight supply of domestic bauxite, low shipments from Guinea, and the high absolute level of bauxite inventory. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. After a short - term price correction, the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with inventory being the key focus [3]. - In the case of cast aluminum alloy, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the registration of standard warehouse receipts [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2877 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.78%, and a historical percentile of 10.14% over 3 years [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20685 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45%, and a historical percentile of 18.82% over 3 years [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19900 - 20800 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.96%, and a historical percentile of 30.26% over 3 years [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 2850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 90% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 21300 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 80% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19900 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Alumina**: The core contradiction in the bauxite market is the conflict between tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high inventory levels. The main factor affecting alumina prices is supply surplus, and the surplus state is expected to continue [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and downstream purchasing sentiment, and is expected to remain volatile at a high level [3]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: The market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. On one hand, raw material prices provide cost support, and pre - holiday restocking demand is positive; on the other hand, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [6]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price**: The prices of various aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts have shown different degrees of change, such as a - 0.29% daily decline in the Shanghai Aluminum main contract to 20685 yuan/ton [1][7]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts has shown significant fluctuations [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Aluminum**: The total Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts are 68960 tons, a decrease of 2.55%. The total LME aluminum inventory is 513850 tons, a decrease of 0.01% [29]. - **Alumina**: The total warehouse receipts for alumina in warehouses are 151006 tons, a decrease of 0.79% [29].