Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the furnace - starting rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall industrial silicon start - up rate is expected to peak, and supply pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand side: Organic silicon demand is stable, recycled aluminum alloy maintains rigid procurement, and polysilicon demand is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Overall: If supply decreases and polysilicon demand improves, the industrial silicon market may reverse at the price bottom. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are key variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Supply side: In October, polysilicon production is expected to be flat month - on - month, with a loose supply pattern and increasing futures warehouse receipts, which may suppress the market [10]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is slowing down, and procurement demand is limited. The industry's high - inventory situation persists, and the de - stocking cycle has not started [10]. - Overall: In the short term, if there is no strong policy by the end of November, the polysilicon futures may be under pressure. In the long term, its trend depends on policy strength [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8925 yuan/ton, down 0.28% daily and up 0.11% weekly. The trading volume and open interest have different degrees of change [12]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts also show certain trends [13]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different weekly changes, with some showing increases and some decreases [19]. - The prices of mid - stream and downstream products such as industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, and polysilicon also have corresponding fluctuations [19]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of different grades of industrial silicon in the East China region shows seasonal characteristics. The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 49,963 hands, with different changes in each delivery warehouse [26][31]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,260 yuan/ton, down 1.43% daily and 6.35% weekly. The trading volume and open interest also change [33]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts have their own trends [33]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have different degrees of change [39]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis rate of the polysilicon main contract shows seasonal characteristics. The basis of the main contract is 2170 yuan/ton, with a significant daily increase. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7870 hands [44][45][48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. It believes that the market decline today may be related to a widely - circulated fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts may be an emerging trend, which will bring some pressure to the market in the short - term. With the current stable capital situation and the central bank's reluctance to over - invest, the market lacks positive drivers and is vulnerable to potential negative factors. Trading should adopt a volatile approach, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures prices dropped rapidly after the opening, failed to rebound during the trading day, and all varieties closed lower. The open market only conducted 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 1.09 billion yuan. The capital situation tended to be stable, and the DR001 rate dropped to 1.41% [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - Federal Reserve Governor Milan estimated the neutral interest rate to be around 2.5% and proposed an additional 125 - basis - point interest rate cut within the year. However, three Fed officials poured cold water on the idea of rate cuts, stating that there is limited room for further action and no reason to cut rates again this year [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - The main reason for today's market decline may be related to a fund fee interpretation memo. The shift from institutional redemptions of fund products to ETFs and special accounts is likely a long - term trend, which will bring some pressure to the market during the transition. Currently, the capital situation is stable, and the central bank's open - market fund withdrawal indicates its reluctance to over - invest. The market lacks positive drivers and is easily affected by potential negative factors. Trading should be based on a volatile strategy, and when buying long positions, the intervals should be widened [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Price | 2025 - 09 - 22 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 23 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Position (Lots) | Position Change (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 23 Trading Volume (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 22 Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.396 | - 0.044 | 75408 | 76728 | - 1320 | 38495 | 28858 | 9637 | | TF2512 | 105.645 | 105.76 | - 0.115 | 144278 | 151551 | - 7273 | 81508 | 50317 | 31191 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 107.945 | - 0.19 | 246257 | 251433 | - 5176 | 110179 | 79097 | 31082 | | TL2512 | 114.54 | 115.09 | - 0.55 | 166622 | 169375 | - 2753 | 154093 | 113691 | 40402 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0467 | - 0.0141 | - 0.0326 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0531 | 0.0369 | - 0.09 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0321 | 0.1268 | - 0.0947 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.623 | 0.6336 | - 0.0106 | - | - | - | - | - | - | [4] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current inventory of old cotton is low, which supports cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the listing time of new cotton. However, the downstream spinning profit is poor, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is limited. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the support level around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton later [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,500 - 14,200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0882 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2287 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF601C14200) at 200 - 250 with a 75% hedging ratio to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,500 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13400) at 300 - 350 with a 50% hedging ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions The low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but the poor downstream spinning profit limits the acceptance of high - priced cotton. The new - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and there is large hedging pressure on cotton prices before the new cotton is listed. The overall trend is stable but weak, and attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton and the centralized listing of machine - picked cotton [4]. 3.3利多解读 - **Inventory Reduction**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of September 15, the domestic industrial and commercial cotton inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the previous month [5]. - **Retail Sales Growth**: In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles reached 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and a month - on - month increase of 8.74%. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream sales have improved month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory of yarn and cloth factories has further decreased [5]. 3.4利空解读 - **Bumper Harvest Expectation**: The growth of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast and in good condition. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, which will bring large hedging pressure on cotton prices [6]. - **Export Decline**: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Among them, clothing exports were 14.146 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7%, with a relatively obvious decline [6]. 3.5 Market Quotes - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of cotton 01, 05, and 09 were 13,540, 13,560, and 13,725 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 70, 55, and 80 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.51%, 0.4%, and 0.58% respectively. The closing prices of棉纱 01, 05, and 09 were 19,635, 19,730, and 0 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 45, 19,730, and 19,990 yuan/ton and decline rates of 0.23%, 100%, and 100% respectively [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,593 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 21 yuan. The spreads of cotton 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 were - 20, - 165, and 185 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 15, 25, and - 10 yuan. The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 65 yuan. The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,940 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 45 yuan, and the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 609 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 90 yuan [8]. - **Price Indexes**: The prices of CCI 3128B, CCI 2227B, and CCI 2129B were 15,133, 13,266, and 15,398 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 91, 81, and 99 yuan and decline rates of 0.6%, 0.61%, and 0.64% respectively. The prices of FCI Index S, FCI Index M, and FCI Index L were 13,494, 13,267, and 12,903 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 17 yuan and decline rates of 0.13% [9].

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - **Term Structure and Capital**: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations**: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1200-1350 | 41.63% | 81.94% | | 焦炭 | 1650-1850 | 31.38% | 67.08% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 利可关注煤焦1-5反套。 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 建议套保 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | 比例 | 间 | | 库存套 | | | 做空焦炭260 | | | 25% | （1780，18 30） | | 保 | 焦炭开工快速恢复，现货供需趋于宽松，焦企担心未来销售价格下降，想提前锁定焦炭销售价格 | 多 | 1合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - Today, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. The short - term futures prices are likely to continue the oscillatory trend, and low - long opportunities for the 12 - contract can be continuously monitored, with an overall approach of waiting and watching or quick in - and - out trading [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor during the peak season, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling direction and an entry range of 1100 - 1200 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping space based on order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to pre - determine the shipping space booking cost. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying direction and an entry range of 900 - 1000 [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 846 lots to 26004 lots, short positions increased by 334 lots to 27322 lots, and trading volume increased by 15727 lots to 51358 lots (bilateral). After the futures prices, especially the prices of the main contract, had basically maintained a large decline in the previous two weeks and reached a short - term low, they rebounded at the low level today as the current spot cabin quotes of mainstream shipping companies on the European line were basically stable. As it is the last week before the holiday, the risks brought by pre - holiday capital fluctuations also need to be monitored this week [3]. 利多解读 - The Israeli military stated that after about two weeks of intensive preparation, the troops of the 36th Division have started to enter Gaza City as part of the "Chariot of Gideon 2" operation to expand the scope of operations. In addition, the Israeli military also said that in recent days, under the leadership of the divisional firepower command post, the Israel Defense Forces carried out strikes on dozens of military targets in the Gaza Strip to separate the combat areas and allow ground troops to enter the area [4]. 利空解读 - Evergreen and ONE continued to lower the current spot cabin quotes on the European line for early October. The daily changes in the EC basis showed different degrees of decline for each contract [5]. Price and Spread - The closing prices and price changes of each EC contract on September 22, 2025 are as follows: EC2510 closed at 1093.7 points, with a daily increase of 4.11% and a weekly decrease of 5.97%; EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.47% and a weekly decrease of 0.14%; EC2602 closed at 1573.6 points, with a daily increase of 0.71% and a weekly increase of 3.74%; EC2604 closed at 1275.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.94% and a weekly increase of 1.68%; EC2606 closed at 1454.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.07% and a weekly increase of 1.58%; EC2608 closed at 1609.0 points, with a daily increase of 0.88% and a weekly increase of 0.33% [6]. Spot Cabin Quotes - According to the data of the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on the day, on October 6, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $840, and the total quote for 40GP was $1400, both remaining the same as the previous period. On October 2, for Evergreen Marine's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $950, a decrease of $50 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1500, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period. In early October, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $915, a decrease of $300 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP remained the same as the previous period at $1435 [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest values, previous values, price changes, and percentage changes of various global freight rate indexes are as follows: SCFIS for the European line decreased by 12.87% to 1254.92 points; SCFIS for the US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI for the European line decreased by 8.84% to $1052 per TEU; SCFI for the US - West line decreased by 30.97% to $1636 per FEU; XSI for the European line decreased by 0.40% to $1983 per FEU; XSI for the US - West line decreased by 4.0% to $2159 per FEU [9]. Port Waiting Time - The waiting times and their daily changes at major global ports on September 21, 2025 are as follows: Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days; Shanghai Port decreased by 0.086 days to 1.596 days; Yantian Port increased by 0.072 days to 0.951 days; Singapore Port increased by 0.106 days to 0.548 days; Jakarta Port increased by 0.625 days to 2.114 days; Long Beach Port increased by 0.392 days to 2.048 days; Savannah Port increased by 0.280 days to 1.083 days [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Quantity - The speeds and their daily changes of different container ship types on September 21, 2025 are as follows: for ships with a capacity of over 8000, the speed decreased by 0.148 knots to 15.516 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 3000, the speed increased by 0.143 knots to 14.827 knots; for ships with a capacity of over 1000, the speed decreased by 0.133 knots to 13.098 knots. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage decreased by 10 to 15 ships [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, marginally supporting the transportation demand for Capesize vessels. The Capesize vessel freight index BCI maintained a weekly increase, supporting the continued rise of the BDI composite freight index. However, the BPI freight index continued to decline, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling, indicating that freight rates on some routes were starting to weaken. The significant reduction in wheat and soybean shipments dragged down the transportation demand for Handysize vessels, while the high shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared with the data on September 12, the range of decline in the route - specific freight index widened, the decline of the BPI freight index increased, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling. In addition, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index narrowed, which also led to a narrowing of the increase in the BDI composite freight index. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2203 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%; the BCI freight index closed at 3437 points, a week - on - week increase of 11.95%; the BPI freight index closed at 1845 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.03%; the BSI freight index closed at 1489 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the BHSI freight index closed at 815 points, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded, but the rebound amplitude decreased. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize vessels still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1389.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the FDI rental index closed at 1725.57 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1926.47 points, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1550.88 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1632.4 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%; the FDI freight index closed at 1166.17 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - The main sending countries of industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main sending countries of agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 22, among the main sending countries of agricultural products, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 22 vessels, and Australia used 3 vessels. Among the main sending countries of industrial products, Australia used 57 vessels, Guinea used 34 vessels, Indonesia used 39 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [14][15]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 21 vessels were used for corn shipment, 21 for wheat, 11 for soybeans, 12 for soybean meal, and 17 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 108 vessels were used for coal, 82 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 35 Post - Panamax vessels, followed by 21 Handymax vessels, and finally 17 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 96 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 Post - Panamax vessels, and finally 53 Handymax vessels [15]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - The data for the week showed that the number of vessels at major Chinese ports decreased week - on - week. Data from mid - to late September showed that "three ports increased, two ports decreased." The expected number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased by 8 week - on - week, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 5 week - on - week, the number of vessels at South African ports increased by 1 week - on - week, the number of vessels at Brazilian ports increased by 1 week - on - week, and the number of vessels at six Indonesian ports decreased by 2 week - on - week [16]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On September 22, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3945.57 yuan per ton. On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30205 per day. On September 19, the latest quote for the CIF price of iron ore was $120.75 per thousand tons. On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14490 per day. On September 18, the latest quote for the CIF price of thermal coal was 558.34 yuan per ton. On September 19, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 807.6 points. On September 19, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The biggest contradiction in the methanol market lies in the port. Continuous high shipments from Iran make the contradiction in the 01 contract difficult to resolve, and the 15 contract has shown a reverse spread. The price in the inland may peak in September. It is recommended to reduce long positions and continue to hold short put options [6] 3. Summaries by Related Contents Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, it is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, it is also 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3] Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Long Spot)**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a 25% hedge, sell MA2601 futures at 2250 - 2350. Also, buy 50% MA2601P2250 put options and sell 50% MA2601C2350 call options [3] - **Inventory Management (Short Spot)**: When the procurement inventory is low and want to purchase according to orders, buy 50% MA2601 futures at 2450 - 2550. Sell 75% MA2601P2300 put options to reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction - At the beginning of the week, the inland and the port were segmented. The port had continuous reverse flow, and after the inland weakened, the futures price declined. As of this week, Iran's shipment was 700,000 tons, and the September shipment is expected to be over 900,000 tons. The inland has a small inventory, some devices have recovered, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped procurement [6] Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at the port is expected to be scattered, and the port's methanol inventory is expected to increase [7]

Report Title - "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" released on September 22, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock market was oscillating strongly today. In terms of index style, small and medium - cap stock indices were dominant again. The trading volume of the two markets narrowed to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The phone call between the Chinese and US leaders sent a positive signal. The volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures declined today, affected by the decline of most futures contract basis and the listing of new contracts. Recently, the news was relatively calm and lacked unexpected information. The market was mainly a game between bulls and bears. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, some funds might leave the market to deal with uncertain risks, resulting in a decline in both spot and futures trading volume and a weakening of market trading enthusiasm. However, supported by the expectation of favorable policies, the downside space of the stock index was limited. It was expected that the stock index would continue to oscillate in the short term [4] Market Review - The stock index oscillated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.46%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2023.47 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume [2] Important Information - The Chinese and US leaders had a phone call. According to the Global Times, Trump said the call was "very productive", and the two leaders would meet during the APEC meeting and he planned to visit China early next year. The 5 - year and 1 - year LPR quotes remained unchanged in September. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes at 3 p.m. [3][6] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday gain/loss (%) | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.0121 | 5.0813 | 11.4627 | 21.3295 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.2955 | - 1.6499 | - 7.2929 | - 10.545 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.6208 | 9.9659 | 23.8802 | 35.4212 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.0745 | 0.3869 | - 0.743 | - 1.0197 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index gain/loss (%) | 0.22 | | Shenzhen Component Index gain/loss (%) | 0.67 | | Ratio of rising and falling stocks | 0.69 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21214.83 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (billion yuan) | - 2023.47 | [7]