Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 0.57 points, a gain of 0.02%. The most influential varieties were gold and silver, with the gold variety index up 2.35% and contributing 0.17%, and the silver variety index up 2.31% and contributing 0.14%. The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.45 points, a decline of -0.46%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and natural rubber, with the crude oil variety index contributing -0.19% and the natural rubber variety index contributing -0.15%. The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with the most influential variety being iron ore, contributing 0.21%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 20.99 points, a decrease of -1.26%. The most influential variety was crude oil, contributing -0.27%. The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 7.14 points, a decline of -0.65%. The most influential variety was palm oil, contributing -0.32% [1][2]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Weekly Data Overview - **Comprehensive Index (NHCI)**: Closed at 2540.08 this week, up 0.57 points or 0.02% from last week [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Closed at 1356.24, up 30.99 points or 2.34% [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Closed at 3596.01, down 16.45 points or -0.46% [3]. - **Metal Index (NHMI)**: Closed at 6402.98, up 20.67 points or 0.32% [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Closed at 1641.37, down 20.99 points or -1.26% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNFI)**: Closed at 1700.91, up 5.96 points or 0.35% [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Closed at 2533.40, down 0.16 points or -0.01% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Closed at 1092.71, down 7.14 points or -0.65% [3]. - **Mini Comprehensive Index (NHCIMi)**: Closed at 1186.12, down 3.22 points or -0.27% [3]. - **Energy Index (NHEI)**: Closed at 1041.11, down 9.18 points or -0.87% [3]. - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCI)**: Closed at 928.44, down 11.69 points or -1.24% [3]. - **Coal - based Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Closed at 1003.47, down 13.37 points or -1.31% [3]. - **Black Raw Materials Index (NHFMI)**: Closed at 1061.21, up 3.05 points or 0.29% [3]. - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Closed at 731.80, down 4.36 points or -0.59% [3]. - **Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI)**: Closed at 1266.02, down 9.73 points or -0.76% [3]. - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Closed at 904.79, down 1.09 points or -0.12% [3]. 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua variety indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and position indicators. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the comprehensive index is 0.534, up 0.012084937 from last week [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuation to Index Fluctuation - The report shows the average position, month - on - month increase, and position share of various futures varieties. For instance, the average position of soybean meal is 4,190,794 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% and a position share of 10.82% [9]. 3.4 Contribution of Major Varieties in Each Index - **Industrial Products Index**: The most influential varieties are crude oil and natural rubber, with contributions of -0.19% and -0.15% respectively [10]. - **Metal Index**: The most influential varieties are iron ore, aluminum, and copper, with contributions of 0.21%, 0.21%, and 0.20% respectively [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index**: The most influential variety is crude oil, contributing -0.27% [2]. - **Agricultural Products Index**: The most influential variety is palm oil, contributing -0.32% [2][10]. - **Black Index**: The most influential varieties are coke, rebar, and ferrosilicon, with contributions of -0.24%, -0.18%, and -0.01% respectively [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: The most influential varieties are aluminum, copper, and zinc, with contributions of 0.37%, 0.35%, and 0.10% respectively [11].

股指期货日报 2025年9月12日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注国内外宏观信息变量，预计股市振幅扩大 市场回顾 今日股指小幅缩量，大小盘涨跌不一，小盘指数偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.57%。从资金面来 看，两市成交额回升832.07亿元。期指方面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC放量上涨，IM缩量上涨。 重要资讯 1、财政部部长蓝佛安表示，财政与货币政策协同，形成政策合力。今年专门发行5000亿元特别国债，为大 型商业银行注入资本金，预计可撬动信贷投放约6万亿元。 核心观点 今日股指先涨后跌，盘中多空博弈剧烈，收盘大盘指数回落，小盘指数上涨。盘前信息，昨日晚间公布美国 CPI数据基本符合预期，但截至9月6日当周，初请失业金人数大幅高于市场预期，叠加PPI低于预期影响以及 甲骨文热度仍在，美股大涨，今日开盘A股也受提振，以沪深300为代表突破前高，同时行业层面有色金属与 科技领涨。不过一方面前高附近预计A股存在一定的抛压，另一方面昨日上行幅度较大，盘间市场进一步上行 势能弱化。下周股市将围绕国内8月金融数据、经济运行数据以及美联储FOMC议息 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB reflects the relative advantages of the domestic fundamentals and the established shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between the two further amplifies the strong performance. The bullish trend of the stock market in the future still has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained [1][10] Summary by Directory 1. Abnormal Trends of Stock and Exchange Rates - The domestic stock market has hit consecutive new highs, with the CSI 300 index breaking through 4,500, and the trading volume of the two markets reaching a maximum of three trillion yuan. The USD/CNY exchange rate has appreciated significantly since the end of August, decoupling from the US dollar index. The on - shore USD/CNY has dropped from around 7.18 to around 7.13, with an appreciation of about 0.5% in the last week of August, while the US dollar index has only dropped by 0.1% and basically fluctuated around 98 [2] 2. Mutual Reinforcement of Stock and Exchange Rates - **Mutual Positive Feedback**: Exchange rate appreciation benefits A - shares through foreign capital demand support and liquidity - driven valuation boosts. Stock market rises enhance exchange rate appreciation expectations through increased foreign capital inflows and improved economic expectations. The foreign capital inflows and valuation boosts brought by RMB appreciation were important reasons for the stock market breakthrough in late August, and the optimism from the stock market rise was the basis for the RMB's significant appreciation at the end of August [5] - **Underlying Drivers**: Domestically, policies such as real - estate policies have boosted economic expectations in August, while in the US, data divergence and external fiscal issues have increased recession expectations. In terms of liquidity, the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September is almost certain, and the market expects a relatively "aggressive" monetary policy easing path, which supports the stock market valuation and the RMB [6] 3. Future Outlook - **Economic Fundamentals**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies. The US fundamentals face multiple uncertainties such as large fiscal deficits, policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, inflation risks, and employment pressures [8] - **Liquidity**: The domestic monetary policy remains moderately loose, and the Fed's interest rate cut provides more room for domestic monetary easing. US employment data has increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. If there is no unexpected data adjustment, the Fed's interest rate cut will be dovish, which is beneficial for the release of domestic monetary easing expectations [9] 4. Conclusion - The strong performance of the domestic stock market and the RMB is based on the relative advantages of domestic fundamentals and the shift in liquidity expectations. The positive feedback between them further amplifies the trend. The stock market's strength in the future has fundamental and policy support, and a long - position mindset can be maintained, with the main risk being the unexpected deterioration of tariff policies [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - The implementation of domestic service - consumption stimulus policies may form a synergistic effect with commodity - consumption boosting measures to support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods, but the actual effect needs further observation. Overseas, the CPI data rebounded in August, and the weakening of the US employment market has increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed's interest rate dot - plot will be the focus of the market [1]. - The US dollar index is in a volatile range. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy near the 7.10 mark [2][3]. Stock Index - The sentiment and capital situation of the stock index have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. However, if the stock index continues to rise rapidly, there will be a need for adjustment due to over - heated sentiment [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market rebounded due to rumors of the central bank restarting bond purchases. The central bank's attitude needs to be closely watched, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4][5]. Shipping - The new weekly opening quotes of Maersk are lower than the previous values, and CMA CGM and Evergreen have also followed up and lowered their quotes for European routes, which is likely to drive down the futures price valuation. It is recommended to operate with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a high - level shock. In the medium and long term, they may be bullish. In the short term, gold and silver are in a high - level consolidation. It is advisable to maintain the idea of buying on dips [9][11]. Copper - US inflation - related data are lower than expected, which increases the expectation of interest rate cuts and causes the copper price to strengthen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro environment is favorable, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support, and it is advisable to consider arbitrage operations [13][14][15]. Zinc - In the short term, the zinc price is in a bottom - strengthening shock. It is advisable to continue to observe the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price has risen slightly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The "Golden September and Silver October" downstream peak - season demand provides support for the lithium - carbonate price, and short - term supply - side disturbances do not change the fundamental support logic [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - In the short term, the Inner Mongolia meeting has a positive impact on sentiment. In the long term, the industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policy expectations, and investors are advised to be cautious [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money call options or using a double - selling strategy [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply of crude steel has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased. The steel inventory pressure is large, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [26][27]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore price is difficult to rise unilaterally. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected. The coal - coke market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends mainly follow the coking - coal price. It is recommended to lightly try long positions on the main contracts, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase dominates the oil - price trend. It is recommended to short on rallies [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weakened [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. It is recommended to expand the processing margin below 260 and try to lay out long positions on TA01 below 4650 [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short on rallies [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak. It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and further demand increase signals need to be awaited [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow the cost - end fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak in the short term, and styrene is in a shock state and it is advisable to wait and see [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to wait to short the cracking spread [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It is recommended to wait to go long on the cracking spread [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, but the inventory is improving. It is advisable to try long positions after the crude - oil price stabilizes [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high in the medium and long term. The supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to cost and supply expectations [53]. Glass - The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase. The market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and demand factors [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot price is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the spot rhythm, peak - season performance, and downstream stocking enthusiasm [55][56]. Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and see and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57]. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic service - consumption stimulus policies are expected to be introduced, and overseas, the US employment market is weakening, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week. Different strategies are recommended for export and import enterprises [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The sentiment and capital situation have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the central bank's attitude is the focus. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. Shipping - Maersk's new quotes and the follow - up actions of other shipping companies drive down the futures price valuation. A quick - in - and - quick - out strategy is recommended [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - The inflation data are in line with expectations, and the employment market is cooling. Precious metals are in a high - level shock, and a long - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][11]. Copper - US inflation data increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the copper price strengthens slightly. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [12]. Aluminum Industry Chain - For aluminum, the macro and fundamental factors are favorable, but investors should be cautious. For alumina, the supply is excessive. For cast aluminum alloy, the cost provides support [13][14][15]. Zinc - The supply is in excess, and the demand is average. The short - term trend is a bottom - strengthening shock [16]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They maintain a shock trend, with limited downward space [17][18]. Tin - Affected by US PPI data, the tin price rises slightly. Selling out - of - the money put options is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The downstream peak - season demand supports the price, and short - term supply disturbances do not change the fundamentals [20][21]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The short - term sentiment is supported, but the long - term industry is under structural pressure. The polysilicon market is affected by news and policies [22][23]. Lead - The lead price is in a narrow - range shock. It is advisable to consider option - selling strategies [24]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The crude - steel supply has recovered, but the overall supply of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Iron Ore - The price is difficult to rise unilaterally due to weak demand. Taking profit on long positions is recommended [28]. Coking Coal and Coke - A second - round price cut is expected, and the market is in a wide - range shock in the short term [29]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Their trends follow coking coal. Lightly trying long positions is recommended, but beware of risks [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Production increase leads to a decline in oil prices. A short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [33]. LPG - It maintains a shock trend, with controllable supply and slightly weakened demand [34][35]. PTA - PX - The industrial profit is under pressure, but the support is strengthening. Processing - margin expansion and long - position layout strategies are recommended [35][38]. MEG - Bottle Chip - There is a pre - expected inventory build - up. It is recommended to wait and look for short - on - rallies opportunities [39][40]. PP - The cost provides support, and it is expected to be stronger than PE in the short term [41][43]. PE - The current driving force is weak, and it is in a shock pattern, awaiting demand increase signals [44][45]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - They follow cost fluctuations. Pure benzene is expected to be weak, and styrene is in a shock state [45][47]. Fuel Oil - It follows cost fluctuations. Waiting to short the cracking spread is recommended [46][47]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Waiting to go long on the cracking spread is recommended [48]. Asphalt - The demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is improving. Trying long positions after crude - oil price stabilization is advisable [49][50]. Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The downstream operating rate has increased, and the domestic demand is resilient. Short - term long positions can be considered [50][52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda Soda Ash - The supply is expected to remain high, and the supply - demand pattern is one of strong supply and weak demand [53]. Glass - The supply is stable or slightly increasing, and the market is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state [54]. Caustic Soda - The near - end spot is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. Spot rhythm and demand need to be watched [55][56]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - The fundamental improvement is not obvious. It is recommended to wait and not chase short positions [56][57]. Logs - There are no new factors, and it is in a shock state. It is advisable to wait and see [57].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core View - Copper prices rose in the overnight session on Wednesday due to the lower - than - expected US PPI data. Investors expect inflation data to further decline, which removes obstacles to the Fed's interest rate cuts and increases the probability of rate cuts, thus pushing up copper prices. The US inflation data on Thursday night met expectations, validating the PPI data. In the short term, with a tight supply side, copper prices face significant resistance at 79,000 yuan per ton, and the 20 - day moving average may provide support, with prices expected to stabilize above 80,000 yuan per ton [4] Content Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,130 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 7.44%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.5% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, the strategy is to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 7,8000 yuan per ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased rate - cut expectations led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and the lower support level has been raised [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are unstable; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; and the US copper tariff policy adjustment has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [6] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 80,130 | 340 | 0.43% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 80,100 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,057 | 45 | 0.45% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.25% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Market | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 80,175 | 430 | 0.54% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 80,140 | 415 | 0.52% | | Guangdong Nanchu | Yuan/ton | 80,120 | 380 | 0.48% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 80,270 | 390 | 0.49% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 85 | 25 | 41.67% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium | Yuan/ton | 40 | 15 | 60% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | Yuan/ton | 60 | 15 | 33.33% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 100 | 5 | 5.26% | [13] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,628.51 | - 60 | - 3.55% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,498.2 | - 0.6 | - 0.04% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 130.31 | - 59.4 | - 31.31% | | Current refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,320 | - 60 | - 0.94% | | Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,239.51 | - 4.16 | - 0.07% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 80.49 | - 55.84 | - 40.96% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 5,419 | 1,001 | 22.66% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 1,530 | 0 | 0% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,028 | 902 | 4.72% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | Tons | 154,175 | - 875 | - 0.56% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | Tons | 22,675 | 0 | 0% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | Tons | 16,500 | - 115,875 | - 87.54% | | LME copper inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 133,325 | 0 | 0% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 20,850 | - 875 | - 4.03% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | Tons | 309,834 | 7,090 | 2.34% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | Tons | 147,589 | - 3,239 | 1.09% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | Tons | 162,245 | - 458 | - 0.28% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | Yuan/ton | - 104.48 | - 109.58 | - 2148.63% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 40.5 | 0 | 0% | [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, gold and silver are consolidating at high levels. For London gold, the support level is around $3600, with strong support in the $3500 area, and the resistance level has moved up to $3700. For London silver, the short - term support is around $40.5, with strong support in the $39.5 - 40 area, and the upper target has moved up to the $44 - 45 area. The operation strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated at high levels, with silver outperforming gold. The US inflation data met expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, indicating cooling pressure in the job market. The contrast in monetary policies between Europe and the US pushed the US dollar index lower, which was beneficial for dollar - denominated precious metals. The high spot lease rate of silver reflected a tight supply in the silver spot market. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly driven by the increasing expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. As of the end, COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.23%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $42.065 per ounce, up 1.12%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.31%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.28%. The US CPI inflation in August basically met expectations, with the core CPI up 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, and CPI up 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, a nearly four - year high. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, and President Lagarde's hawkish remarks weakened the expectation of ECB rate cuts [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has slightly rebounded. Traders have priced in three rate cuts within the year, but the expectation of a 50 - basis - point cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 6.1%. For October, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 7.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 86.8%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 5.6%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 0.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 13.1%, a 75 - basis - point cut is 81.2%, and a 100 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased slightly by 2.01 tons to 977.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15,069.6 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 1240.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Attention should be paid to the preliminary value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index tonight. This week marks the quiet period for Fed officials ahead of the September 18 Fed interest rate decision [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract was at 830.78 yuan per gram, down 0.32%; SGX gold TD was at 826.09 yuan per gram, down 0.44%; CME gold main contract was at $3673.4 per ounce, down 0.19%. SHFE silver main contract was at 9798 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02%; SGX silver TD was at 9772 yuan per kilogram, down 0.12%; CME silver main contract was at $42.065 per ounce, up 1%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 4.69 yuan per gram, up 26.76%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 26 yuan per kilogram, down 1300%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 87.3268, down 1.17% [6]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 50,151 kilograms, up 9.14%; CME gold inventory was 1210.3089 tons, unchanged. SHFE gold position was 114,423 lots, down 4.19%; SPDR gold position was 977.95 tons, down 0.21%. SHFE silver inventory was 1240.187 tons, down 0.96%; CME silver inventory was 16,314.2027 tons, up 0.26%; SGX silver inventory was 1248.255 tons, down 2.75%. SHFE silver position was 203,343 lots, down 4.32%; SLV silver position was 15,069.602597 tons, down 0.45% [15][17]. 3.5 Other Market Data - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview**: The US dollar index was at 97.5392, down 0.29%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1152, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46,108 points, up 1.36%. WTI crude oil spot was at $62.37 per barrel, down 2.04%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,057 per ton, up 0.45%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, down 0.74%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was at 1.67%, down 1.18%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was at 0.49%, down 2% [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Affected by the lower - than - expected US PPI data, tin prices rose slightly on Thursday, with no significant change in its fundamentals. CPI data met expectations, echoing PPI. In the short term, factors influencing tin price trends are not obvious, and technical analysis can be used for judgment. The price level of 270,000 yuan per ton provides some support and can be used as a reference price for the next few trading days [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest closing price of tin is 271,260 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 12.82%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 21.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high product inventories and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the SHFE tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventories and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the SHFE tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [3]. 3.3 Market Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and lower - than - expected resumption of production in Myanmar [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Fluctuating tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector shifting from expansion to contraction [6]. 3.4 Futures Market Data - **SHFE Tin Futures**: The latest prices of SHFE tin main, SHFE tin consecutive - one, and SHFE tin consecutive - three are all 271,260 yuan/ton, 271,260 yuan/ton, and 271,460 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 34,700 dollars/ton, up 65 dollars or 0.19%. The SHFE - LME ratio is 7.94, up 0.07 or 0.89% [7]. 3.5 Spot Market Data - Various tin - related spot prices, including Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, tin concentrates, and solder bars, all showed weekly declines, with decreases ranging from 0.36% to 0.57% [12]. 3.6 Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,422.39 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7.68%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remained unchanged [15]. 3.7 Inventory Data - SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased by 0.29% to 7,504 tons, with Guangdong up 0.11% to 5,245 tons and Shanghai up 1.13% to 1,438 tons. LME tin inventory increased by 2.34% to 2,410 tons [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coking Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - Coking Coal: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1060 - 1260, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.86% and a historical percentile of 80.58% [3] - Coke: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1510 - 1750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.97% and a historical percentile of 61.85% [3] Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Hedging: For coke, when steel mills start a round of price cuts (2 - 3 rounds are generally expected), coke producers worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1750, 1800) and 50% at (1800 - 1850) [3] - Procurement Management: For coking coal, due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - over - limit inspections in the fourth quarter, coking plants worried about future price increases can long the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1050, 1100) and 50% at (1000, 1050) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - On September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day, the inventory of rebar increased by 8525 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 33782 tons, iron ore remained unchanged, coking coal decreased by 800 hands, coke increased by 90 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 585 sheets, and ferromanganese decreased by 118 sheets [4] Market Analysis - Coking Coal: After the end of production - restriction disturbances, mines resumed production, a round of price cuts was fully implemented, and coke producers were pessimistic about the future, reducing coking coal inventory. The supply - demand balance sheet of coking coal deteriorated marginally, and mines lowered spot prices. In the short term, the rebound space of coking coal is limited; in the long term, enterprises with raw - material procurement plans can consider long - position hedging in the far - month contracts [4] - Coke: Coke producers' immediate profits are good, and after the lifting of production restrictions, production is expected to quickly recover. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. Coke is restricted by price - cut expectations, and the market performance may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] Group 4: Price and Spread Data Futures Price and Basis - Coking Coal: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Tangshan Mongolian No. 5, Port Mongolian No. 5) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The basis of different varieties (e.g., Rizhao Port Wet - Quenched, Jinzhong Wet - Quenched) also showed different changes [7] Futures Spread - Coking Coal: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05) changed on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] - Coke: The spreads between different contracts also changed [7] Other Ratios - The current盘面coking profit is - 87, the main mine - coke ratio is 0.488, the main screw - coke ratio is 1.897, and the main carbon - coal ratio is 1.429, all showing certain changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7] Group 5: Spot Price and Profit Data Spot Price - Coking Coal: The spot prices of various coking coal varieties (e.g., Anze Low - Sulfur Main Coking Coal, Mongolian No. 5 Raw Coal at 288 Port) showed different changes on September 11, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [8] - Coke: The spot prices of various coke varieties (e.g., Jinzhong Quasi - First - Grade Wet - Quenched Coke, Lvliang Quasi - First - Grade Dry - Quenched Coke) also showed different changes [10] Profit Data - Coking Profit: The immediate coking profit is 127 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase compared with the previous day but a decrease compared with the previous week [10] - Import Profit: The import profits of different coal - importing sources (e.g., Mongolian coal, Australian coal, Russian coal) showed different changes [10] - Export Profit: The coke export profit is 364 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease compared with the previous week [10] Group 6: Market Outlook and Influencing Factors Market Outlook - In the short term, downstream steel inventories continue to accumulate, the blast - furnace link still has profits, and the supply of hot metal is resilient. The contradiction in the steel market is difficult to resolve in the short term, limiting the rebound space of coking coal. Coke may be slightly weaker than coking coal [4] - In the long term, "anti - involution" is the focus in the second half of the year. Investors need to be vigilant about the impact of repeated macro - sentiment on the coal and coking market [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: The details of the "anti - involution" policy have not been announced, and there may be repeated macro - sentiment. Downstream coke producers have seasonal inventory - replenishment demand for coking coal before the National Day holiday [4][6] - Bearish Factors: The daily consumption of thermal coal has reached an inflection point, and the demand for thermal coal has weakened, dragging down the price of coking blending coal [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market showed a narrow adjustment with a pattern of strong - then - weak performance, with a weekly adjustment range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation remained weak. After the parade, there was a slight regional increase in industrial and compound fertilizer demand, but the overall impact was limited. The market is more concerned about China's supply volume in the Indian tender and whether it will cause concentrated cargo collection at ports. The upstream is facing increasing pressure to receive orders, and urea factories started to lower prices to receive orders over the weekend. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [4]. - The export of urea has been confirmed. The futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with stronger support at the bottom due to speculative pricing [5]. - Domestic policies are suppressing the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Urea | 1650 - 1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | Methanol | 2250 - 2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | Polypropylene | 6800 - 7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | Plastic | 6800 - 7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management** - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, short - sell urea futures (UR2601, sell, 25%, 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options (UR2601P1850, buy, 50%, 15 - 20) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (UR2601C1950, sell, 45 - 60) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management** - When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy urea futures (UR2601, buy, 50%, 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options (UR2601P1650, sell, 75%, 20 - 25) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3].

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/11 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 20.80% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...