Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Considering Iran's low inventory and the potential for a sharp decline in shipments due to gas - related shutdowns, short - sellers are more willing to reduce positions, and long - positions are entering the market, leading to marginal improvement in methanol. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the low - level entry opportunity presented by the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Fundamentally, downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates. It is suggested to continue holding long positions and short put options [4]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a historical percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a historical percentile of 78.5% [3]. Methanol Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short methanol futures (MA2601) at a 25% ratio in the 2250 - 2350 range, buy put options (MA2601P2250) at a 50% ratio, and short call options (MA2601C2350) at a certain ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and the company wants to purchase based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy methanol futures (MA2601) at a 50% ratio in the 2450 - 2550 range, short put options (MA2601P2300) at a 75% ratio to reduce procurement costs and lock in purchase prices [3]. Core Contradictions - Restricted by gas supply, methanol prices are rebounding. Short - sellers are reducing positions, and long - positions are entering the market. The 1 - 5 and 11 - 1 spreads show strong expectations for the 01 contract. After the 09 contract delivery, it is recommended to hold long positions and short put options. Downstream demand is improving, with increased procurement and higher olefin plant operation rates [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the arrival of foreign vessels at ports is expected to be scattered, and the port inventory of methanol is expected to increase [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been falling continuously, and short positions in the futures market have been increasing daily. The main reason for the futures price falling more than the spot price is the elimination of export expectations, and urea prices in the future will be more determined by the domestic market [4]. - There may be some discrepancies in inventory expectations. Some enterprises with export quotas may accelerate cargo collection at ports in September, and ports will intensify inventory clearance before October 15 [6]. - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, but there is still demand. Considering its unique sales attributes and potential expectation discrepancies, urea may have short - term upward momentum [7]. Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - The basis (Henan's lowest deliverable product price) was around - 110 last Tuesday and is currently - 70. The futures price has fallen more than the spot price, mainly due to the extrusion of export expectations from the futures market [4]. Inventory - After entering the second quarter, urea enterprises have slow de - stocking due to high daily production and export quota occupation, and current enterprise inventory fluctuates around 1 million tons. Port inventory has increased due to the opening of exports [6]. - Since August, the increase in enterprise inventory has mainly occurred in Inner Mongolia. Considering the low export quota of Inner Mongolian factories and the single - peak season in a year, the Northeast market should be considered when analyzing future enterprise inventory trends. Northeast urea demand is gradually starting, which may drive the de - stocking of Inner Mongolian inventory [6]. Supply and Demand - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, but the time is still early and there is still demand [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 11, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the trend of ferroalloys has mainly followed the price trend of coking coal. After the military parade, the logic of steel mill production restrictions has gradually disappeared, and the bearish factor restricting coking coal has also diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products such as polysilicon and coking coal. Ferroalloys, which were near the cost line after the decline, also rebounded. The decline in ferroalloy production profits is expected to weaken the drive for further production increases. With the arrival of the normal water season, the output in the southern silicon-manganese production areas will gradually decline. The term structure of ferroalloys has gradually improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for a short-term rise in ferroalloys. However, the term structure of coking coal on the raw material side has not improved, and its contango has deepened. The long-term trading logic still lies in the "anti-involution" expectation. The market still has some momentum, and there are still expectations for supply-side contraction. The market's long-short logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The market expects that the supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese, semi-coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, making it cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract price difference of the two silicons at -400. However, without substantial progress and actions in "anti-involution," there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline. It is recommended to lightly test long positions near 5450 for the ferrosilicon main 11 contract and near 5700 for the silicon-manganese main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.78%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 34.7% - Silicon-manganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000, current volatility (20-day rolling): 15.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 29.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases based on orders, to prevent rising ferroalloy prices from increasing procurement costs, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradictions - The recent trend of ferroalloys follows the price of coking coal. After the military parade, the production restriction logic for steel mills has faded, and the bearish factor for coking coal has diminished. The "anti-involution" news on Friday led to a sharp rise in star products like polysilicon and coking coal, causing ferroalloys near the cost line to rebound. The decline in production profits is expected to limit further production increases, and the output in southern silicon-manganese production areas will decline with the normal water season. The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, while that of coking coal has not. The long-term trading logic is based on the "anti-involution" expectation, and the market's long-short logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The supply-demand pressure of ferroalloys may ease, and it is cost-effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. However, without substantial "anti-involution" progress, there is a high risk of a rally followed by a decline [4] Bullish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: The operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 36.34%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 91,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.76%, and the total inventory is 158,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.47% [6] - **Silicon-manganese**: The government's control policies on high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon-manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations. South 32 announced its manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.1 per ton-degree (+0.05) and Australian manganese ore at $4.5 per ton-degree (+0.05). There are market rumors about changes in the shipping situation of Gabonese ore, with a possible reduction in October. Attention should be paid to the impact on manganese ore prices and silicon-manganese costs [6] Bearish Factors - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon enterprise inventory is 66,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.88%. The demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel products is 20,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. Ferrosilicon output is 115,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.68% [7] - **Silicon-manganese**: In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the overall black sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicon-manganese demand. Silicon-manganese enterprise inventory is 160,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.72%. The demand for silicon-manganese in the five major steel products is 123,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.37% [7] Ferrosilicon Daily Data - Data includes ferrosilicon basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [8] Silicon-manganese Daily Data - Data includes silicon-manganese basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts on September 11, 10, and 4, 2025, as well as day-on-day and week-on-week changes [9][10] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Data - The report provides term structure spread charts for ferrosilicon, silicon-manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and silicon-manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory [11][12][34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a view that the nickel and stainless steel markets will remain volatile with limited downside potential, but no specific industry investment rating is provided [1]. 2. Core View The nickel market shows a continuous volatile trend with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.39% and a historical percentile of 0.5% [3]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Nickel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risks, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [4]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The nickel market is volatile with limited downside but lacks upward momentum. Nickel ore production and shipments are stable, and domestic arrival inventories are high. The new energy sector still provides support, and the supply is relatively tight. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel also maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impacts of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased difficulties in stainless - steel exports [5]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, there is an increased expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, and stainless steel has been de - stocking for several weeks [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Pure nickel inventories are high, nickel ore seasonal inventories are rising, there are still Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs have increased, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates [7]. 3.5 Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous is 120,620 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 87,538 lots, an increase of 12,532 lots or 16.71% month - on - month; the open interest is 81,691 lots, an increase of 79 lots or 0.10% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 tons, a decrease of 193 tons or 0.87% month - on - month [8]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous is 12,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton and a 0% month - on - month change; the trading volume is 112,848 lots, a decrease of 2,615 lots or 2.26% month - on - month; the open interest is 128,344 lots, an increase of 5,176 lots or 4.20% month - on - month; the warehouse receipt volume is 97,554 tons, a decrease of 734 tons or 0.75% month - on - month [9]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic social nickel inventories are 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons; LME nickel inventories are 223,152 tons, an increase of 2,058 tons; stainless - steel social inventories are 918,700 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons; nickel pig iron inventories are 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10].

Report Overview - The report is the Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated September 11, 2025, released by Nanhua Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened significantly lower and declined today. The short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relative downward trend, but a rebound after reaching short - term lows should be guarded against. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if the position has been taken but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1300 - 1400 to lock in profits [2] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the number of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2] Core Contradiction - As of the close, all contract prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures declined. For the EC2510 contract, long positions increased by 2011 lots to 27563 lots, short positions increased by 943 lots to 28905 lots, and trading volume increased by 19234 lots to 36335 lots (bilateral) [3] - Maersk's new weekly opening quotation was lower than the previous value, and the price of 20 - foot containers fell below $1000. CMA CGM and Evergreen also followed to lower the European line quotations, dragging down the futures price valuation [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports was 694,000, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% and a month - on - month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile commodities was $24.98 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export amount was $20.48 billion, a year - on - year increase of 13.6% and a month - on - month increase of 6% [4] EC Basis and Price Changes - The basis and price of each EC contract showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes on September 11, 2025. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 362.66 points, with a daily increase of 63.60 points and a weekly decrease of 110.24 points. The closing price of EC2510 was 1203.8 points, with a daily decrease of 5.02% and a weekly decrease of 7.45% [6][7] Spot Freight Quotations - Maersk's 20 - foot and 40 - foot container quotations for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - to - late September showed fluctuations. Some quotations increased slightly, while others decreased significantly. For example, on September 25, the opening quotation of 20 - foot containers decreased by $90 compared to the previous week [9] - CMA CGM and Evergreen also lowered their quotations for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - to - late September [9] Global Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 11.68% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS US West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 3.30% [10] - The SCFI European route was $1315 per TEU, a decrease of 11.21%; the SCFI US West route was $2189 per FEU, an increase of 13.83% [10] Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major global ports on September 10, 2025, showed different changes compared to September 9, 2025. For example, the waiting time at Shanghai Port increased by 0.251 days to 1.506 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port decreased by 0.233 days to 0.690 days [17] Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of container ships of different sizes on September 10, 2025, showed slight increases compared to September 9, 2025. For example, the speed of 8000 + container ships increased by 0.081 knots to 15.798 knots [25] - The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 3 to 8 on September 10, 2025, compared to September 9, 2025 [25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, due to the continuous improvement in commodity shipping volume, the demand for mainstream ship types has significantly increased, especially for Capesize and Panamax vessels. This has led to a substantial week - on - week increase in the BCI and BPI freight rate indices, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to rise by over 8%. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products has increased significantly, benefiting all dry - bulk carriers. [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with September 3 data, the week - on - week increase in the freight rate indices of mainstream ship types was significant. The BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2112 points, up 8.87% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index was at 3071 points, up 10.75% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index was at 1975 points, up 14.89% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index was at 1478 points, up 0.75% week - on - week; and the BHSI freight rate index was at 798 points, up 1.27% week - on - week. [4] - The BDI composite freight rate index increased by 4.30% month - on - month and 105.25% compared to the beginning of the year; the BCI index decreased by 6.37% month - on - month but increased by 143.54% compared to the beginning of the year; the BPI index increased by 23.90% month - on - month and 97.5% compared to the beginning of the year; the BSI index increased by 10.63% month - on - month and 64.40% compared to the beginning of the year; the BHSI index increased by 15.65% month - on - month and 44% compared to the beginning of the year. [5][7] 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On September 10, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all increased. Among them, the rental freight of Panamax vessels in the FDI rental freight index had the largest month - on - month increase. - The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1366.34 points, up 1.11% month - on - month; the FDI rental index was at 1686.96 points, up 1.3% month - on - month. The Capesize vessel rental index was at 1822.95 points, up 1.77% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index was at 1546.77 points, up 2.03% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index was at 1645.83 points, down 0.03% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index was at 1152.59 points, up month - on - month. [8] 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On September 11, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 58 vessels, Russia 8 vessels, Argentina 18 vessels, Uruguay 0 vessels, and Australia 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 vessels, Guinea 37 vessels, Indonesia 47 vessels, Russia 15 vessels, South Africa 19 vessels, Brazil 13 vessels, and the United States 8 vessels. [15][16] 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 22 vessels were used for corn shipping, 21 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 20 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 104 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 23 for other dry goods. - For agricultural product shipping, the most required were Post - Panamax vessels (42), followed by Handymax vessels (22), and then Handysize vessels (27). For industrial product shipping, the most required were Capesize vessels (92), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (72), and then Handymax vessels (60). [17] 4. Main Port Vessel Quantity Tracking - In mid - September, the number of vessels docked at Chinese ports continued to increase. The data showed that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 22 week - on - week, while the number at Australian ports decreased by 2, and the number at Indonesian ports increased by 1. The number of vessels at Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged. [18] 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 10, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4033.52 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28045/day, and the latest quote for iron ore CIF price was $123.95/kiloton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14227/day, and the latest quote for steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 790.4 points. On September 12, the 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114/cubic meter. [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the price trend of lithium carbonate futures lies in the interaction between supply - side disturbances and the peak - season expectations on the demand side. The news of the restart of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has caused abnormal fluctuations in futures prices, and the market shows signs of irrational sentiment. The social inventory has been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and the downstream inventory is in a healthy range, indicating the resilience of terminal demand. The demand side provides key support, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton in the next month. However, if the supply - side disturbances are less than expected or the demand - side restocking weakens, the price may face downward pressure [2][4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include potential production suspension risks of lithium mines in Jiangxi, uncertainties in supply due to green mine construction, and expected growth in downstream production. Negative factors include the filling of supply gaps as prices rise, the acceleration of overseas lithium mine production, and the risk of insufficient restocking on the demand side [4][5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Interval Prediction - The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 76,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 40.7% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 67.2% [2]. Lithium - Ion Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Procurement Management - For cases where product prices are not correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, buy corresponding futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 20% and an entry range of 67,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 30% and an entry point of LC2511 - P - 68000 [2]. - For cases where product prices are correlated: When there is a plan to produce battery materials in the future and there is a concern about rising procurement costs, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 70% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% based on the procurement cost. When there is a plan to produce lithium carbonate in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the sales profit; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% based on the sales profit [2]. Sales Management - When raw materials are highly correlated with lithium carbonate prices and finished products have a low correlation with lithium carbonate prices: When there is a plan to purchase lithium - containing raw materials to produce finished products in the future and there is a concern about falling sales profits, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress with a hedging ratio of 80% based on the procurement cost; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, buy put options and sell call options with a hedging ratio of 60% based on the procurement cost [2]. Inventory Management - When there is a concern about inventory depreciation due to future price drops in the inventory of raw materials/lithium carbonate with a high price correlation, for the futures tool, sell the main futures contract with a hedging ratio of 60% - 80% in the range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton; for the on - or off - exchange option tool, sell call options with a hedging ratio of 40% - 60% at LC2511 - C - 79000 [2]. Futures Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 71,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 280 yuan (0.40%) and a weekly decrease of 2,420 yuan (- 3.30%); the trading volume is 426,041 lots, with a daily decrease of 325,439 lots (- 43.31%) and a weekly decrease of 286,110 lots (- 40.18%); the open interest is 323,456 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,358 lots (- 5.09%) and a weekly decrease of 30,218 lots (- 8.54%) [10]. - The closing price of the weighted lithium carbonate contract is 71,181 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 354 yuan (0.50%) and a weekly decrease of 2,218 yuan (- 3.02%); the trading volume is 564,454 lots, with a daily decrease of 498,948 lots (- 46.92%) and a weekly decrease of 382,933 lots (- 40.42%); the open interest is 778,508 lots, with a daily decrease of 17,672 lots (- 2.22%) and a weekly increase of 552 lots (0.07%) [10]. Spot Data - Lithium ore prices: The average price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 2.2%) daily and 90 yuan (- 4.83%) weekly; the average price of spodumene (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 2.56%) daily and 250 yuan (- 7.58%) weekly; etc. [19]. - Lithium carbonate/hydroxide prices: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.84%) daily and 2,100 yuan (- 2.89%) weekly; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan (- 0.82%) daily and 2,150 yuan (- 2.87%) weekly; etc. [21]. - Price differences in the lithium industry chain: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 yuan (- 2.17%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 6,570 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan (5.63%) and a weekly increase of 750 yuan (12.89%); etc. [25]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Brand basis quotes for lithium carbonate: For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 100 yuan, with no change [31]. - Warehouse receipt data: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 38,391 lots, an increase of 290 lots from the previous day. For example, the warehouse receipts of Zhongchu Lingang increased by 220 lots to 750 lots, and the warehouse receipts of Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots to 0 lots [34]. Cost and Profit - Lithium carbonate production profit: The production profit from purchasing spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) shows certain trends over time [35]. - Lithium carbonate import profit and theoretical delivery profit also show certain trends over time [35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The stock market rose significantly with higher trading volume today, and the trading volume of the two markets returned above 2.4 trillion yuan. The closing price of the CSI 300 index reached a new high this year, and the industry indices of the stock market generally increased. The positive impact of the US PPI data on the stock market was limited. The rise was mainly due to the industry - pulling effect of Oracle. After several days of adjustment in the A - share market, funds re - entered the market, pushing up the overall stock market. In the context of a structural market, attention should be paid to the sustainability of market enthusiasm, mainly by tracking changes in trading volume, and being vigilant against sharp rises and falls [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rose significantly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 2.31%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 459.96 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties increased in volume [2] Important Information - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors within 2 years starting from today. OpenAI has signed an agreement to purchase $300 billion worth of computing power from Oracle in about five years, causing Oracle to surge nearly 36% overnight and its market value to soar by $243.8 billion [3] Strategy Recommendation Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main - contract intraday percentage change (%) | 2.64 | 1.56 | 3.44 | 2.94 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 16.9613 | 7.0995 | 19.5795 | 31.8107 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 3.8933 | 1.7746 | 6.1198 | 4.3013 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 28.2139 | 10.4398 | 26.6336 | 38.8332 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 0.6664 | 0.8511 | 1.8948 | 0.4629 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index percentage change (%) | 1.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index percentage change (%) | 3.36 | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 4.17 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 24377.19 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | 4595.96 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver may face correction pressure due to overbought technical indicators. The inflation data is not expected to support a 50BP rate cut, and economic or employment deterioration is the main driving factor. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated at high levels. Investors are waiting for the US August CPI data to guide the rate cut amplitude in mid - September. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly affected by the enhanced expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. The market focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment and independence issues, and bond market risks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3680.4 per ounce, down 0.05%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.65 per ounce, up 0.75%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 833.42 yuan per gram, up 0.21%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%. The US August PPI data supported the September rate cut expectation and did not rule out the possibility of a 50BP rate cut [2]. 3.2 Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - The expectation of a rate cut within the year has slightly declined, and the expectation of a 50BP rate cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings slightly increased by 0.27 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings were 15069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.9 tons to 1252.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US CPI data at 20:30 on Thursday. In terms of events, this week is the blackout period for Fed officials before the September 18 Fed interest rate decision. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 833.42 yuan per gram, down 1.06 yuan or 0.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various inventories and holdings, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings. For instance, SHFE gold inventory was 45951 kilograms, up 1536 kilograms or 3.46% [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial indicators, including the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, etc. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.8197, up 0.0573 or 0.06% [18].