1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Financial Futures - Domestic policies will focus more on the livelihood sector to address income - distribution imbalances and stimulate effective demand. The economy is marginally recovering, but government support is still needed. Overseas, US inflation remains resilient, and the market is concerned about the US employment market. The Fed's decision is crucial [1]. - The US dollar index shows signs of downward break - out. The short - term trend of the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate depends on internal and external factors. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern around 7.1 [2]. - For the stock index, the adjustment continues, and the market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [4]. - The bond market may have a certain downward space in yield this week, but the space may be limited. The progress of Sino - US talks may affect both the stock and bond markets [6]. - For the container shipping market, the SCFI European line continues to decline, and the short - term futures price is likely to maintain a downward trend. It is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions carefully [10]. Base Metals - Copper is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper prices may decrease, and the supply - demand situation is weak on both sides [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile. The key to aluminum prices is inventory, alumina has a supply - surplus problem, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum [12][13][15]. - Zinc is expected to be volatile. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile with bottom support. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton. The impact of monetary policy may decrease, and the supply is tight in the short term [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize. Policy support may extend the peak season, and the downside space of spot prices is limited [19]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon is expected to have limited upward space and may be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating [24]. - Polysilicon is expected to be volatile. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [25]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. The price is pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - For steel products, the market is expected to be in a volatile consolidation pattern. The fundamentals are under pressure, but macro expectations and pre - holiday demand provide some support [29]. - Iron ore prices are short - term strong but limited by steel demand and shrinking steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to be lightly long at certain price levels. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG is supported by the overseas market. The domestic supply is controllable, and the demand is slightly weak [37]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [39]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions. The port pressure is large, and the supply from Iran is increasing [41]. - PP is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support [45]. - PE is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations. The fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are weakly trending. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US government's "shutdown" risk, and China's August social financing and loan data [1]. - The core logic is that domestic policies will focus on the livelihood sector, the economy is marginally recovering, and overseas inflation and employment are key concerns [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange rate data is provided. The key factors affecting the exchange rate are the Fed's decision and internal and external factors in China [1][2]. - The short - term trend of the exchange rate depends on the interaction of internal and external factors, and the market may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2]. Stock Index - The previous trading day's stock index showed a slight volume contraction, with different performances between large and small - cap stocks. The market is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates [4]. - It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the Fed's decision and Sino - US economic and trade talks are important [6]. Bond Market - The bond market adjusted last week due to the regulations on public fund redemption fees. The fundamentals show weak loan demand, and the central bank's measures support the capital market [6][7]. - The yield may decline this week, but the space is limited. The progress of Sino - US talks is a key factor [6]. Container Shipping - The previous trading day's container shipping index (European line) futures declined. The spot market prices of major shipping companies have changed [7][8]. - The short - term futures price is likely to decline, and it is recommended to operate quickly in and out and beware of rebounds [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver's market performance last week was strong, with changes in inventory and fund positions. The market is focused on the Fed's decision, personnel adjustment, and bond - market risks [10]. - It is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Base Metals - Copper: The price increased last week due to the US inflation data. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and it is expected to be volatile around 81,000 yuan per ton [11]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum increased, alumina decreased, and cast aluminum alloy increased. The key factors are the Fed's decision, seasonal demand, and scrap aluminum supply [12][13][15]. - Zinc: The price was slightly up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and the demand outlook is average [15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The prices were up slightly. The new energy sector supports nickel, and stainless steel is affected by cost and seasonality [16]. - Tin: The price increased slightly. It is expected to be stable, fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton [18]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: The futures price declined last week. The supply and demand situation in the lithium battery industry chain has changed, and policy support may stabilize the price [19][20]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The futures price was slightly down. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating, so the upward space is limited [22][24]. - Polysilicon: The futures price declined. The supply is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong [23][25]. - Lead: The price increased. The price was pushed up by long - position funds, and the supply is relatively weak compared to demand [26]. Black Metals - Steel products: The price showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The supply has recovered, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile [28][29]. - Iron ore: The price is short - term strong. The supply is tightening in the short term, and the demand is recovering, but it is limited by steel demand and steel mill profits [30]. - Coking coal and coke: The price is affected by supply and demand changes. The supply is increasing, and the weak reality restricts the price rebound, but pre - holiday inventory transfer may support the price [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese: The prices were slightly up and down. The cost provides support, and the market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality [32][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The price was up. The supply is in an over - supply state, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35]. - LPG: The price was down. The overseas market provides support, and the domestic supply is controllable, with slightly weak demand [35][37]. - PX - TA: The price is volatile. The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and the PTA processing fee may be repaired [38][39]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is expected to be volatile between 4220 - 4400. It is not recommended to short further as the inventory build - up expectation has been priced in [40]. - Methanol: The price was down. It is recommended to reduce long positions due to port pressure and increasing Iranian supply [41]. - PP: The price was down. The supply pressure is relieved, and the cost provides support, so it is expected to be oscillating [45]. - PE: The price was down. The supply is decreasing, but the demand recovery is slow, so it is expected to be oscillating [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices were down. They follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the fundamentals are weak, so it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Fuel oil: The price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. The export is shrinking, the demand is recovering, and it is not recommended to short further [49]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The cracking spread is weakening. After the short - term decline, the negative factors have been priced in, and the cracking spread rebound should be watched [51]. - Asphalt: The price was down. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and it may have a chance to rise during the demand peak season [51]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The prices were down. The price has returned to the fundamental pricing range, and weather and macro factors are still uncertain [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent oil prices have been fluctuating weakly. The core reason is that the oversupply pressure in the crude oil market has become a reality, overshadowing recent geopolitical disturbances. The oversupply pressure mainly stems from the continuous production increase of global oil - producing entities on the supply side, while the demand side lacks support, and crude oil demand is about to peak and decline. Although macro and geopolitical factors have some influence, they are now secondary. The continuous acceleration of OPEC+'s production - increasing actions is the core driver determining the oil price direction, and supply pressure dominates the market. It is still recommended to sell high and pay attention to the rhythm and participate cautiously [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Trends**: The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.37%, at $62.60 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 1.18%; the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.77%, at $66.88 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.11% [9]. - **Position Analysis**: As of the week ending September 9, the speculative net short position of WTI crude oil futures increased by 14,840 lots to 24,905 lots; the speculative net long position of Brent crude oil futures decreased by 41,476 lots to 209,578 lots. The speculative net long position of gasoline futures increased by 8,965 lots to 107,376 lots. As of September 12, the open interest of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,024 lots, a week - on - week increase of 14,216 lots compared to September 5 [10]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads**: On Friday (September 12), the price spread between WTI and Brent was - $4.3 per barrel, a decrease of $0.67 per barrel compared to last Friday (September 5); the price spread between SC and WTI was $4.59 per barrel, a decrease of $1.11 per barrel compared to last Friday; the price spread between SC and Brent was $0.29 per barrel, a decrease of $1.78 per barrel compared to last Friday [11]. 3.2. Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Weak and fluctuating [12]. - **Arbitrage**: The seasonal spread of gasoline cracking weakens, while that of diesel cracking is strong [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [12]. 3.3. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 72,000 barrels per day. From September 6 to 12, the number of active US oil rigs was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 rigs [23]. - **Demand**: From August 30 to September 5, the crude oil input of US refineries was 16.818 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 51,000 barrels per day; the refinery utilization rate was 94.90%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [23]. - **Imports and Exports**: From August 30 to September 5, US crude oil exports were 2.745 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 1.139 million barrels per day; petroleum product exports were 7.195 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 barrels per day. From August 26 to September 1, the seaborne crude oil exports in the Middle East were 18.4189 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 19.77%; this week, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports were 2.9933 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 24.82% [23]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,939 thousand barrels; the total strategic petroleum inventory was 405,224 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 514 thousand barrels; the total oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23,857 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 365 thousand barrels. As of September 10, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 110.14, a week - on - week increase of 1.83%; the proportion of storage capacity to total storage capacity was 60.16%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall supply of coking coal is becoming more abundant with the resumption of mines after the military parade - related restrictions, active customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the arrival of overseas coal. The market is pessimistic about the future, with rumors of a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a decrease in coking enterprises' willingness to stockpile coking coal and a decline in spot prices [2]. - Although there is pressure to cut prices in the short term, coking enterprises have high enthusiasm to resume production after the lifting of restrictions, and the supply - demand gap for coke is narrowing. The high inventory of steel products needs time to be digested, and the weak reality will limit the rebound of coal - coke prices [2]. - In the long - term, "anti - involution" is the focus of the market in the second half of the year. The market's expectation has improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Inventory transfer before the National Day may improve the supply - demand structure of coal - coke, so coking coal is not recommended as a short - position variety in the black market [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply side**: The supply of coking coal is increasing, with mines resuming production, high - level coal shipments, and strong import supply. Coking enterprises are cautious about replenishing coking coal due to the expected price cut of coke, resulting in poor sales and price loosening of coking coal [2][4]. - **Demand side**: The social inventory of five major steel products is accumulating against the season, and the immediate profit of steel products is deteriorating. The second - round price cut for coke has officially started. The total supply of steel products remains high, and high inventory needs time to be digested [2][4]. - **Future outlook**: There are still profits in most steel products except for rebar in the blast furnace process, and blast furnace plants are reluctant to cut production. After the military parade, some electric - arc furnace plants are resuming production, while others are reducing or stopping production due to losses. The downstream replenishment before the National Day, the Fourth Plenary Session in October, and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline should be monitored [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. The oscillation range of JM2601 is 1060 - 1260, and that of J2601 is 1510 - 1750 [18]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Purchase cumulative options for JM2601 with an observation period of 30 days and a knock - in and knock - out range of (1075, 1275); short the coking profit on the futures market at an entry range of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55); conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal at an entry point of (- 50, - 40) [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The price range of coking coal is 1060 - 1260, and that of coke is 1510 - 1750 [19]. - **Risk management strategies**: For inventory hedging, short the J2601 contract of coke; for procurement management, long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [20][22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Supply and inventory data**: The production of coking coal and coke is generally increasing, while the inventory of coking coal is decreasing, and the inventory of coke is increasing [22]. - **Price data**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally declined, and the import profits of some coal types have changed [23]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are policies indicating more active macro - policies and efforts to promote economic growth [26]. - **Negative information**: Steel mills have cut the price of coke, and the total inventory of steel products has increased, with high social inventory pressure [26][27]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's August social retail sales year - on - year and industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year on September 15th. Also, pay attention to the resumption progress of hot metal, the production - cut rhythm of electric - arc furnaces, the verification of peak - season demand, the inventory - accumulation speed of finished products, and the downstream replenishment rhythm before the National Day [27]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The double - coke futures market is oscillating, with the 20 - day moving average forming pressure. The trading volume is shrinking, but the open interest of the main coking coal contract remains around 700,000 lots, indicating a large divergence between bulls and bears. The short - term lacks a clear directional driver [27]. - **Capital movement**: The net short - position of key coking coal seats first increased and then decreased, and there was a reduction in long - positions for coke, suggesting that the main capital is cautiously bearish but not overly pessimistic about the double - coke market [28]. - **Month - spread structure**: The coal - coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure, indicating high near - term pressure and support for far - month prices from the "anti - involution" expectation. There is no significant change in the month - spread this week [33]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of coking coal is mainly oscillating, and the basis of coke has narrowed due to the implementation of the spot price cut. There is no definite spot - futures positive - spread opportunity in the short term [39]. - **Spread structure**: The coking profit on the futures market continues to fluctuate at a low level. The strategy of shorting the coking profit on the futures market at high prices is maintained [42]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking - The first - round price cut for coke has been fully implemented, the cost of coal for coking has slightly decreased, and the immediate coking profit has declined from a high level. The blast - furnace profit has slightly improved, but rebar in the blast - furnace process has serious losses, and and and electric - furnace, and the electric - arc furnace is in a serious loss situation [44]. - The second - round price cut for coke started on September 12th and is expected to be implemented next week, and the immediate coking profit is expected to continue to shrink [44]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered since June, and the customs - clearance enthusiasm at ports has significantly increased, with the import of Mongolian coal expected to accelerate. Tracking the theoretical import profit of overseas coal can predict the coking coal import volume in the next month, and it is inferred that there will be some pressure on the arrival of coking coal [48][51]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The production of coking coal is expected to increase, with an estimated weekly average output of 9.77 million tons next week and 9.8 million tons in the week of September 20th. The import volume of coking coal is also expected to rise, with a net import of about 9.85 million tons in August and a weekly average net import of about 2.2 - 2.23 million tons in September [67]. - The production of coke is expected to recover rapidly, with a weekly output of 7.95 million tons next week and 7.98 million tons in the week of September 20th [67]. 5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - The daily average hot - metal output is expected to be 2.4 million tons next week, basically the same as this week [73]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **Coking coal**: After the lifting of restrictions, domestic mines are expected to resume production quickly. Coking coal maintains a tight supply - demand balance, with an immediate balance of 2.3803 million tons of hot - metal [75]. - **Coke**: The immediate coking profit is good, and coking enterprises have strong enthusiasm to resume production. The supply - demand gap is narrowing rapidly. The second - round price cut has been initiated, and the spot price of coke is still under pressure in the short term, but downstream replenishment before the National Day provides some support, making the third - round price cut more difficult [75].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, but the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and persistent funding shortages, resulting in the short - term peak season not exceeding expectations. The inventory structure has improved with factory and social inventories declining. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, southern rainfall will continue to be high, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing as OPEC increases production. In the medium - to - long - term, demand will pick up as construction conditions improve in autumn, and there may be only one last chance for asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions. After the short - term stabilization of crude oil, a long - position allocation can be attempted [3]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.26% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.93% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs; they can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory hoping to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs; they can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3530 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, and 3500 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract on September 12, 2025, had daily changes of 17 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, 27 yuan/ton, and 27 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 142.4603 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 1.7328 yuan/barrel; the crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent was 114.3876 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of - 16.4623 yuan/barrel [8]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Low pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - **Negative Factors**: An increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in the short - term, the drag on demand from the southern rainy season, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in operating rates due to consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is expected to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak fundamentals and difficulty in inventory reduction. Without macro - level positive factors, its price is likely to fluctuate weakly. The styrene market has seen a reduction in supply in September due to increased maintenance, but faces challenges such as high inventory, slow terminal order recovery, and weak confidence in the peak season. The absolute prices of both pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows, showing undervaluation but high inventory. Short - term market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pure benzene is predicted to be 5600 - 6200 yuan/ton, and for styrene, it is 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short styrene futures (EB2510, sell, 25%, entry range: 7300 - 7400 yuan/ton) to lock in profits and sell call options (EB2510C7200, sell, 50%, entry range: 15 - 30) to reduce capital costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy styrene futures (EB2510, buy, 50%, entry range: 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (EB2510P7000, sell, 75%, entry range: 35 - 50) to reduce procurement costs [3]. Market Situation Analysis - **Core Contradictions**: Pure benzene has an unfavorable supply - demand situation, and styrene has issues such as high inventory and slow terminal order recovery. Both markets need macro - level policies or unplanned production cuts to change the situation [4]. - **Leveraging Factors**: No relevant information provided. - **Negative Factors**: - The price of crude oil, a cost - end factor, has weakened significantly due to production - increase news [6]. - New production capacity of pure benzene is being added, while downstream demand is decreasing. For example, a 23 - ton pure benzene cracking unit in Shandong will be put into production in mid - September, and a 9 - ton pure benzene reforming unit in Hebei is planned to be put into production at the end of September. There are also new styrene production units coming online, and the monthly production schedule of major white goods is not optimistic [9]. Market Data - **Inventory**: As of September 8, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 17.65 tons, a decrease of 2 tons (- 10.18%) from the previous period, mainly due to fewer arriving ships in the previous period [8]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides detailed data on the daily changes in the basis of pure benzene and styrene, as well as the price spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain [10][11]. - **Industrial Chain Prices**: It shows the price data of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain from September 5 to September 12, 2025, including crude oil, naphtha, pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products, as well as the profit data of some products [12][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, and the focus is on the delivery of new apples. New late Fuji apples may have a high opening price due to small fruit sizes, but it's uncertain if the price will keep rising. There may be a polarization of high - quality apples with high prices and low - quality apples with low prices [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential overall quality - related yield reduction. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction, price differences between high - and low - quality early - maturing apples, and a slowdown in inventory decline [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 8100 - 8700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 41.5% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: - For those worried about low apple purchase prices due to a potential new apple harvest, they can sell AP2510 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 8500 - 8600 range to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell AP2511C8600 call options at a 50% hedging ratio in the 30 - 40 range to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management**: - For those worried about high apple purchase prices due to a decline in old - crop inventory and potential new - crop yield reduction, they can buy AP2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio in the 8300 - 8400 range to lock in purchase costs. They can also buy AP2511P8100 put options at a 75% hedging ratio in the 70 - 80 range to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if the price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On September 12, 2025, AP01 closed at 8329 with a daily increase of 0.93% and a weekly increase of 0.40%. AP10 closed at 8438 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.68%. The spot prices of various apple grades remained unchanged on that day. The daily increase of the盘面 profit was 6.01%, and the weekly decrease was 6.81% [6]. Apple Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 20.91, with a weekly decrease of 6.44. The national cold - storage inventory according to Zhuochuang on September 4 was 30.62, with a weekly decrease of 4.73. The inventory in some production areas like Shandong and Shaanxi also decreased, while the inventory in Gansu, Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning was zero. The arrival volume of apples at some Guangdong wholesale markets increased [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Attention to USDA Report Adjustment [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Jianing (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0020097) [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the inventory of old cotton is low, new cotton is mostly pre - sold, and the downstream maintains a de - stocking state, which supports cotton prices. However, the spinning profit of yarn mills is poor, and the hedging pressure is large under the expectation of a bumper harvest, which may limit the upside of cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may fluctuate within the previous range. Attention should be paid to the listing situation of new cotton and the adjustment of the USDA's September supply - demand forecast report [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of September 4, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.1%, the same as the same period last year (neutral) [2]. Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons; the cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57% (neutral) [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic retail sales of textile and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In August, the export volume of textile and clothing was 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% (bearish) [2]. Inventory - As of the end of August, the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton in China was 2.374 million tons, a decrease of 714,200 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 622,000 tons. Among them, the commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July, and the industrial inventory was 892,300 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from the end of July (bullish) [2]. International Market US Supply - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 97%, 1 percentage point behind the same period last year and the same as the five - year average; the lint - opening rate was 40%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the overall good - to - excellent rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year (neutral) [2][3]. US Demand - From August 29 to September 4, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 upland cotton was 29,393 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47% and a 33% decrease from the four - week average; the shipment volume of upland cotton was 29,529 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% and a 2% decrease from the four - week average; the net signing volume of Pima cotton was 272 tons, and the shipment volume was 1,315 tons. There were no signings of 2026/2027 upland cotton and Pima cotton this week (bearish) [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 29, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.88 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.3% (bullish) [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In August, the export volume of textile and clothing in Vietnam was 3.86 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%; the export volume of clothing in Bangladesh was 3.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, the export volume of clothing in India was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export volume of textile and clothing in Pakistan was 1.68 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 10.37% and a year - on - year increase of 32.13% (bearish) [3]. Market Situation - This week, Zhengzhou cotton further tested the lower limit of the oscillation range. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be harvested about 10 days earlier than usual. Next week, there may be a new round of cooling in Xinjiang, and there may be precipitation in northern Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the lint - opening and harvesting progress of new cotton. Downstream, in the seasonal peak season, the overall load of gauze mills has been further increased, and the finished - product inventory has continued to decline. Recently, the profit of yarn mills has been repaired, but the amplitude is limited. Spinning enterprises in the inland still face great operating pressure, and the replenishment intensity of yarn mills is weak, with insufficient market confidence. Abroad, as of September 6, the harvesting progress of new cotton in Brazil has reached 86.9%. CONAB's latest forecast for the new - season cotton output in Brazil is 4.061 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase and a 9.7% year - on - year increase, with the expectation of a bumper harvest remaining unchanged. As of September 4, the cumulative signed export volume of US 2025/2026 cotton was 882,000 tons, reaching 33.74% of the annual expected export volume. Recently, India has accelerated the signing and import of US cotton under the extension of the import tariff exemption period, but the overall export progress of US cotton has been continuously slow [5]. Data Overview Futures Data - Zhengzhou cotton 01 closed at 13,860 yuan, down 140 yuan or 1% from the previous week; Zhengzhou cotton 05 closed at 13,820 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.86%; Zhengzhou cotton 09 closed at 13,380 yuan, down 200 yuan or 1.47% [7]. Spot Data - CC Index 3128B was priced at 15,248 yuan, down 198 yuan or 1.28%; CC Index 2227B was priced at 13,379 yuan, down 159 yuan or 1.17%; CC Index 2129B was priced at 15,526 yuan, down 168 yuan or 1.07% [7]. Spread Data - The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, down 20 yuan; the CF5 - 9 spread was 440 yuan, up 80 yuan; the CF9 - 1 spread was - 480 yuan, down 60 yuan [8]. Import Price - FC Index M was priced at 13,371 yuan, up 96 yuan or 0.72%; FCY Index C32s was priced at 21,249 yuan, down 48 yuan or 0.23% [8]. Cotton Yarn Data - The futures price of cotton yarn closed at 19,845 yuan, down 120 yuan or 0.6%; the spot price was 20,745 yuan, down 15 yuan or 0.07% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction affecting the log price trend is not obvious. Spot price cuts and the decline in foreign quotes have been fully factored in. If the 11 - contract follows the trend of the 09 - contract with low buyer acceptance for delivery, there is still room for price decline, but the current time is not right. Spot prices remained stable this week, with no significant supply - demand contradictions, and prices are slowly declining with low volatility, but the downside space is also limited. Next week, inventory reduction is expected to continue [3]. - The near - end price does not offer delivery profit. The futures price is lower than all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the price at which buyers are willing to take delivery. The long - short contradiction is not obvious, and the price will continue to fluctuate in the range of 780 - 820 until a new variable emerges [4]. - The price of the 01 - contract cannot be accurately valued at present. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading situation of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are all unknown. The monthly spread structure is at a reasonable level, and the trading volume of the 01 - contract is low, so it is not considered for now [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The core contradiction affecting log price trends is not evident. Spot price drops and foreign quote decreases have been priced in. If the 11 - contract replicates the 09 - contract's pattern with low buyer delivery willingness, prices may fall further, but the current timing is inappropriate. Spot prices were stable this week, with no significant supply - demand imbalances. Prices are slowly declining with low volatility, and the bottom space is limited. Next week, inventory is expected to continue to decrease [3]. - Near - end trading logic: There is no delivery profit in the near - end price. The futures price is below all specification warehouse - receipt costs but has not reached the buyer's acceptance price. The long - short conflict is not clear, and the price will move within the 780 - 820 range until new factors emerge [4]. - Distant - end trading expectation: The 01 - contract price cannot be accurately estimated. Overseas shipping volume, CFR quotes, the trading status of the 11 - contract, and subsequent delivery volume are unknown. The monthly spread structure is reasonable, and the 01 - contract has low trading volume, so it is not considered [5]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: The market is in a downward trend. After a rebound on reduced positions, it is in low - volatility oscillation, moving towards the previous low. - Strategy suggestions: Mainly short at high prices; use the interval grid strategy with 805 as the central price, a grid interval of 5 - 10, and an interval range of 790 - 820. Set the short position twice the long position, and pay attention to risk control. If the grid is broken and exceeds the risk - control range, stop losses promptly [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short log futures to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 820 - 830 [11]. - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging tool is lg2511, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry recommendation between 780 - 800 [11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - Bullish information: Inventory is seasonally declining and at a historical low [11]. - Bearish information: Outbound volume is weak; foreign quotes have dropped by $2; there is uncertainty about further spot price cuts [12][14]. - Spot transaction information: The prices of various log specifications in different ports remained stable this week, with varying degrees of year - on - year decline [12][15]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - After a rebound on reduced positions on Monday, the futures market mainly oscillated downward. There was a slight increase in positions and a price drop on Friday. With no new variables, trading was characterized by low volatility this week, and capital mainly flowed out [16]. 3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - The monthly spread structure maintains a C - structure. The price decline of the delivery - month contract is more obvious, and there are few changes in the structure except for the delivery - month contract [19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 822, and in Shandong, it is around 817. The price at which buyers are willing to take delivery, calculated at a 20 - point discount on the spot price, is around 782. The current price is within a reasonable range [24]. 4.2 Import Profit - In Shandong, imports of 3.9/5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs continue to incur losses, and the losses deepen after the spot price drop. In the Yangtze River Delta region, the profit of 6 - meter medium - grade A logs is also negative but better than in Shandong [25]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From September 13th to 22nd, 9 ships are expected to arrive (- 2), with a total cargo volume of 328,000 cubic meters (- 90,000). - Based on the current daily outbound volume, significant inventory reduction is expected next week, continuing the seasonal inventory - reduction trend. On the demand side, the daily outbound volume is 61,200 cubic meters (- 800), showing a slight weakening trend. Whether the demand weakening will continue needs further observation. The reduction of national subsidies may reduce support for pallets, and the continuous decline of the second - hand housing market since July is not a positive sign for the furniture market. The real - estate sector remains weak [32]. - On the supply side, with the decline in CFR quotes, the possibility of continuous high shipping volume is low. Supply and demand are expected to remain in a weak balance [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. The bond market may maintain a weak and volatile trend without a positive statement from the central bank. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Friday, Treasury bond futures showed a volatile intraday trend, with long - term varieties closing higher. The short - end yield of spot bonds increased, while the long - end yield decreased. The open - market had a net injection of 4.17 billion, and the funding situation was stable, with DR001 around 1.36% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the current week was 263,000, rising to a nearly four - year high. The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [2] - The weighted winning bid rates for the 2 - year and 7 - year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.44% and 1.78% respectively, and the marginal winning bid rates were 1.47% and 1.81% respectively [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market reached a new high and then declined today, but the bond market was hardly affected, and long - term bonds showed a weak rebound. The central bank continued to inject funds in the open - market, and the funding situation was stable. The issuance of 2Y and 7Y Treasury bonds in the primary market was acceptable. The new 2Y bonds may become the CTD of TS2512 in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the futures price will be under pressure. Currently, the market's expectation for the central bank to restart bond purchases has increased, but with the acceptable performance of the primary market, the central bank may not be in a hurry to act [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - TS2512 closed at 102.364, down 0.042 from the previous day; TF2512 closed at 105.58, down 0.01; T2512 closed at 107.68, up 0.035; TL2512 closed at 115.16, up 0.33 [4] - TS contract positions decreased by 1,839 to 70,916; TF contract positions decreased by 10,207 to 136,763; T contract positions decreased by 2,661 to 231,546; TL contract positions increased by 3,489 to 160,648 [4] - TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.035 to - 0.053; TF basis (CTD) increased by 0.0101 to 0.0401; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.039 to 0.3793; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.1874 to 0.3058 [4] - TS main contract trading volume decreased by 772 to 34,239; TF main contract trading volume decreased by 11,105 to 71,456; T main contract trading volume decreased by 22,253 to 103,800; TL main contract trading volume decreased by 56,563 to 150,180 [4]