Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract fluctuated and declined, with a change of -1.46% and an amplitude of 3.62%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton. The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate may show a situation where supply increases slightly and demand gradually rises, with positive industry expectations and gradual reduction of inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and declined, with a change of -1.46% and an amplitude of 3.62%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and the supply of domestic mining areas is expected to gradually become clear. Lithium ore may continue to have firm quotes. Supply is expected to show an increasing trend, and the overall domestic supply of lithium carbonate may increase slightly. Driven by the traditional consumption season, downstream orders and production schedules have improved, and the industry maintains a high - growth trend. Policy support is more positive, and the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to increase [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and control trading rhythm to manage risks [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 72,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,080 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was - 200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,180 yuan/ton [16]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 876 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous week. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1253, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [20]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, an increase of 8,001.6 tons from July, a growth rate of 57.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. The monthly export volume was 368.905 tons, an increase of 2.56 tons from July, a growth rate of 0.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 56.97%. The monthly output was 45,880 tons, an increase of 1,280 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.87%, and a year - on - year increase of 31.09%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [32]. 3.5 Downstream Market - **Demand Side**: - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 59,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 yuan/ton. As of August 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 192,100 tons, an increase of 10,150 tons from July, a growth rate of 5.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 43.84% [35]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 34,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 240,000 tons, an increase of 26,040 tons from July, a growth rate of 12.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.6%. The monthly operating rate was 57%, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 3% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 65,860 tons, an increase of 3,940 tons from July, a growth rate of 6.36%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.61%. The monthly operating rate was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. As of the latest data, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [43]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,330 tons, an increase of 210 tons from July, a growth rate of 2.08%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.09%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [48]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of August 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 14,980 tons, an increase of 2,110 tons from July, a growth rate of 16.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 92.05%. As of the latest data, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 230,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [51]. - **Application Side**: - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of August 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 45.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 8.03%. The monthly output was 1,391,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 11.91%; the sales volume was 1,395,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.54% [53]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of August 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.532 million, a year - on - year increase of 87.29% [58]. 3.6 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.18, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The hot - rolled coil futures price fluctuated downward this week. The macro - environment has tariff disturbances, the industrial situation shows high production, falling terminal demand, rising inventory, and falling apparent demand. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of September 26, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [5]. - Hot - rolled coil production decreased to 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Apparent demand was stable at 321.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons from the previous week, but an increase of 3.3 million tons year - on - year [5]. - Factory and social inventories increased. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, an increase of 2.51 million tons from the previous week, but a decrease of 19.13 million tons year - on - year [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week, but an increase of 39.40 percentage points year - on - year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on products from non - FTA partners including China, and the US may impose a 25% tariff on all imported heavy - duty trucks. Domestically, five ministries jointly issued a work plan for the steel industry, aiming for an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026 [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils remained high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.81%. Terminal demand declined slightly, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased but remained above 3.2 million tons [7]. - **Cost aspect**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated and corrected. Although the molten iron production was high, the arrival volume and port inventory increased. The coking coal futures price first rose and then fell. There was a pre - holiday restocking demand from downstream, but the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate increased for three consecutive weeks, with an expected increase in supply [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract's center of gravity moved down, and the futures price was under pressure below multiple moving averages. It may test the support near 3300 and the previous low of 3280 in the short term. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were under pressure below the 0 - axis, and the red bar shrank [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro - environment, tariff disturbances have resurfaced. In the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand has declined, inventory continues to increase, and apparent demand has decreased, but overall resilience is strong. The long - term bullish sentiment is not high, and cost - side support has weakened. Before the holiday, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the market may fluctuate. The HC2601 contract is considered to be in a volatile and bearish trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the HC2601 contract fluctuated downward. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, and the spread on the 26th was 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On September 26, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 46314 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6986 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 75554 lots, a decrease of 30039 lots from the previous week [20]. - **Spot price**: On September 26, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3430 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 26th was 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw material prices**: On September 26, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 851 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 15 - 21, 2025, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China was 2750.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.1 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14550.68 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 169.00 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 351.41 million tons, an increase of 0.38 million tons. On September 25, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 122.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.67 million tons [39]. - **Coking plant situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a decrease of 0.04%. Coke inventory decreased by 2.67 million tons to 39.54 million tons, while coking coal inventory increased by 53.06 million tons to 856.23 million tons, and the available days of coking coal increased by 0.76 days to 12.1 days [43]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Steel production and export**: In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to August, the cumulative crude steel production was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, China exported 951 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons and a 3.3% decrease; imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons and a 10.6% increase [46]. - **Blast furnace operation**: On September 26, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [50]. - **Hot - rolled coil production and inventory**: On September 25, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 enterprises was 324.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 27.91 million tons year - on - year. The in - factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons but a year - on - year decrease of 1.95 million tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.18 million tons. The total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13 million tons [50][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Automobile and home appliance**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, the production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 19964.62 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%; household refrigerators were 7018.91 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%; and household washing machines were 7826.28 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic environment has a mixed impact on the coking coal market. The LPR remains unchanged this month, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a work plan for stable growth in the steel industry. Some import ports will be closed from October 1 - 7, 2025. Overseas, new tariff policies have been introduced. The supply - side shows increasing production capacity utilization in mines and coal washing plants, while imports' cumulative growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. Before the holiday, funds are reducing positions to avoid risks, market sentiment is falling, and the downstream replenishment is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price trend is expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or hold no positions in the main contract [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - 523 coking coal mines had a daily average raw coal output of 194.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.1 million tons [8]. - 314 independent coal washing plants had a daily refined coal output of 27.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons [8]. - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1916.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42.91 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28% [8]. - The warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Meng 5 refined coal was 1366, with a converted futures price of 1146 [8]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 34 yuan/ton [8]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 58.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 39.40 percentage points [8]. - The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons [8] 3.1.2. Market Outlook - Macro: This month, the LPR remained unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan for stable growth in the steel industry, aiming to balance supply and demand. Some import ports will be closed from October 1 - 7, 2025 [9]. - Overseas: The US will impose tariffs on some products from October 1, and South Korea imposed temporary anti - dumping duties on certain steel products [9]. - Supply - demand: The capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, some coal types have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has continued to rise, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Strategy: Before the holiday, funds are reducing positions, market sentiment is falling, and downstream replenishment is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or hold no positions in the main contract [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - As of September 26, the open interest of coking coal futures contracts was 906,800 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 lots [13]. - As of September 26, the spread between the coking coal 5 - 1 contracts was 85.0, a week - on - week decrease of 17.0 points [13]. - As of September 26, the number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 100 lots [19]. - As of September 26, the ratio of the January futures contracts of coke and coking coal was 1.41, unchanged from the previous week [19] 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of September 25, 2025, the flat - price of coke at Rizhao Port was 1430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal (5, Ganqimaodu Port) was 1250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110 yuan/ton [27]. - As of September 26, the basis of coking coal was - 54.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 69.0 points [27] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Mining and Coal Washing - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 86.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%. The daily average raw coal output was 194.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.1 million tons. Raw coal inventory was 458.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.3 million tons. The daily average refined coal output was 77.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons. Refined coal inventory was 211.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.8 million tons [31]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 38.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.80%. The daily refined coal output was 27.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons. Refined coal inventory was 310.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4 million tons [31] 3.3.2. Coking and Steel - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04%. The daily coke output was 53.12 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 million tons. Coke inventory was 39.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.67 million tons. The total coking coal inventory was 856.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.06 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.76 days [35]. - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 242.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.50 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 34 yuan/ton; in different regions, the average profit per ton of coke in Shanxi was - 24 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 20 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 4 yuan/ton [51]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 796.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.73 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.89 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 days. The pulverized coal injection inventory was 420.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.85 million tons. The available days of pulverized coal injection were 12.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 days [51] 3.3.3. Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) was 1916.11 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42.91 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.28% [35]. - The import coking coal inventory of 16 ports was 496.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.47 million tons. Among them, the coking coal inventory of 3 ports in North China was 221.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.97 million tons; 2 ports in Northeast China was 41.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.70 million tons; 9 ports in East China was 128.50 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.80 million tons; 2 ports in South China was 106.00 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons [39] 3.3.4. Production - In August 2025, China's raw coal output was 39049.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output was 316517.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [55]. - In July 2025, China's coking coal output was 4089.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25 million tons [55] 3.3.5. Import - In 2024, China's coal imports were 540 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.4%, reaching a record high. Among them, the cumulative import of coking coal was 121.895 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.62% [59]. - In August, China's total imports were 1016.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [59]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors include stable September LPR in China, potential deposit - rate cuts in Q4, tariff measures by the US, and anti - dumping taxes by South Korea [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, iron - water production is high with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is higher than the same period. Independent coking plants are experiencing losses [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - After the holiday, the coke price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to trade the main contract with a view of oscillatory movement, and mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: China's September LPR remains unchanged; more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4; the US will impose tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping taxes on steel products [7]. - **Overseas**: The US plans tariff hikes, and South Korea imposes anti - dumping taxes on steel from China and Japan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons, with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is relatively high. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduce positions to avoid risks, market sentiment drops, and the downstream restocking is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the coke futures contract open interest is 56,700 lots, down 81 lots; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 143.0, down 1.50 points; the registered warehouse receipts are 1,690 lots, up 140 lots; the rebar - coke ratio of the futures main contract is 1.84, up 0.02 points [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 25, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of September 26, the coke basis is - 330.0 yuan, down 51.0 points [25]. - **Production**: In August 2025, China's raw coal output is 39,049.7 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to August is 316,517.4 million tons, up 2.8% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's coking coal output is 4,089.38 million tons, up 25 million tons month - on - month [28]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants is 75.31%, down 0.04%; the daily coke output is 53.12, down 0.02; the coke inventory is 39.54, down 2.67; the total coking coal inventory is 856.23, up 53.06; the available coking coal days are 12.1 days, up 0.76 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons week - on - week and 17.50 million tons year - on - year. As of September 26, the total coke inventory is 890.92 million tons, up 7.07 million tons week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory is 496.85, down 18.47; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 661.31, up 16.64; the available coke days are 11.66 days, up 0.24 days [40]. - **Fundamentals**: From January to August, the cumulative coke exports are 495 million tons, down 20.0% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's steel exports are 951.0 million tons, down 32.6 million tons month - on - month and 3.3% month - on - month; the cumulative steel exports from January to August are 7,749.0 million tons. In August 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities drop 0.60% month - on - month. As of the week of September 21, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities is 161.13 million square meters, up 16.47% week - on - week and 23.41% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities is 51.15 million square meters, up 9.49% week - on - week and 65.15% year - on - year; in second - tier cities, it is 69.51 million square meters, up 11.25% week - on - week and 11.32% year - on - year [46][49][54].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 新季玉米上市增加 期价维持底部震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 玉米类市场周报 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货小幅收涨。主力2511合约收盘价为2178元/吨，较前一周+10元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA报告预计，2025/26年度美国玉米产量将达到168.14亿蒲式耳，创历史新高，期 末库存也将达到七年来最高水平。且随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐步增加。不过，从早期 收割情况来看，产量报告好坏不一，使得美玉米产量或有下调的预期。国内方面，东北产区辽宁 及黑龙江新粮收获范围扩大，种植户售粮积极性较高，新粮陆续上市供应,开秤收购的加工企业增 多,不过随着新玉米上量增多，下游需求相对低迷,深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面 来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制。 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs remains under pressure as large - scale farms continue to sell and smallholders are also actively selling large pigs. Although demand has improved marginally due to cooler temperatures, price drops, and approaching holidays, the increase in demand is less than that in supply. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, which constrains prices. However, with the current price at a relatively low level and high positions held, there is a risk of price fluctuations caused by pre - holiday position changes. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The price of live pigs continued to decline, with the main contract 2511 falling 1.95% weekly [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is sufficient while demand growth is limited, keeping the supply - demand pattern loose. Pre - holiday position changes may cause price fluctuations. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fell, with the main contract 2511 down 1.95% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position increased, and there were 298 futures warehouse receipts, 130 less than last week. As of September 26, the net short position of the top 20 holders was 28,375 lots, up 2,571 lots from last week [13][17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 445, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was 50 [21]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week and 8.33% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 25.38 yuan/kg, down 2.62 yuan/kg from last week and 10.57% from last month [35]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.51 yuan/kg in the week of September 18, down 0.19 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.50 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of September 17, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.81, down 0.09 from the previous week [43]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, down 10,000 from the previous month and 0.025% year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month [48]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million, up 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the live pig inventory in large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased by 2.56% month - on - month, and that of small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.44% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight was 123.47 kg, down 0.04 kg from last week [59]. 3.3.2. Industry Profitability - **Live Pig Farming**: As of September 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 236.57 yuan/head, an increase of 37.25 yuan/head. The loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 74.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 49.66 yuan/head [64]. - **Poultry Farming**: As of September 26, the profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/bird, down 0.06 yuan/bird week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.40 yuan/bird [64]. 3.3.3. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, with a monthly average of 88,750 tons. In August, the import volume was 80,000 tons, down 11.11% year - on - year [65][69]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken Price**: As of the week of September 26, the price of white - striped chicken was 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week [72]. - **Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of the week of September 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.39 yuan/kg, 0.39 yuan/kg less than last week [72]. 3.3.5. Feed Market - **Feed Prices**: As of September 26, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,019.71 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of corn was 2,365.29 yuan/ton, up 4.9 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of September 26, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 894.31, down 0.56% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [83]. - **Feed Output**: In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and 0.74% year - on - year [87]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [91]. 3.3.7. Downstream Market - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 39th week, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate was 32.82%, up 1.05 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.65%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, up 5.32% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [99]. 3.4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [100][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is supported by tight raw materials and boosted consumption. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply growth and demand boost, with positive industry expectations and gradual inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 3.2% and an amplitude of 4.09%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Incident**: Mining giant Freeport reported that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident, causing casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine suspended operations [6]. - **Domestic Meeting**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting, firmly opposing the "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry [6]. - **Fundamentals - Ore End**: The TC fee continued to operate in the negative range, the supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the port inventory of copper concentrates might decline due to the decrease in raw material imports. The cost - support logic for copper prices remained [6]. - **Supply**: In the peak consumption season and with relatively firm copper prices, smelters were still enthusiastic about production. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials limiting production capacity, domestic copper production would maintain a slight growth trend [6]. - **Demand**: The central government would implement a more active consumption - expansion policy, and with the help of the traditional peak consumption season, the expectations of the copper industry were repaired, and the starting situation of downstream copper products would significantly improve [6]. - **Inventory**: With positive consumption expectations and the development of industries such as power and new energy in the application end, the demand for refined copper might significantly increase, and the previously slightly accumulated social inventory might gradually decrease [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of September 26, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 82,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,560 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 112,498 lots [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 82,485 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,475 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [17]. - **Bill of Lading Premium**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0 US dollars/ton [23]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of the latest data, the net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a decrease of 325 lots compared with last week [23]. 3.3 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: As of September 26, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai copper main contract fell to around the 75th percentile of historical volatility [28]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6986, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0510 [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate Price**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 72,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,340 yuan/ton [31]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fee**: As of the latest data this week, the southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [29]. - **Copper Ore Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 7.78%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.27% [34]. - **Scrap - Refined Copper Price Difference**: As of the latest data this week, the scrap - refined copper price difference (including tax) was 2,764.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,063.8 yuan/ton [34]. - **Global Copper Ore Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly global production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared with June [39]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,000 tons [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.44%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared with June, a growth rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared with June [41]. - **Refined Copper Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared with July, a decline of 8.17%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 407.95 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.86 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 3,225 tons compared with last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 4,282 tons compared with last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,281 tons compared with last week. The total social inventory was 145,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons [53]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products Production and Import**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared with July, a growth rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with July, a decline of 10.42%, and a year - on - year growth rate of 2.38% [59]. - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.5% and 14% respectively. The year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of August 2025, the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 6.030919 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342,912,327,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [70]. 3.7 Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of July 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of June 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 46,500 tons [75][76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 合成橡胶市场周报 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 策略建议： br2511合约短线预计在11150-11600区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内山东市场顺丁橡胶价格窄幅偏弱震荡，现货价格区间在11450-11800元/吨。 中石化化销及中油主要销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶价格稳定。截止2025年9月25日，中国高顺顺丁橡 胶主流出厂价格在11700-11800元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升，国内顺丁橡胶总体供应 充足，本周原料丁二烯外放资源增多，成本及供应面缺乏利好带动，部分业者对两油资源出厂价 格下调持观望态度，生产企业库存略提升，贸易企业库存下降。临近国庆假期，下游终端或逐步 提货，预计企业库存水平整体小幅下降。需求方面，本周轮胎企业多维持前期开工水平，以适当 储备节后库存，整体开工小幅调整为主，个别小规模半钢胎样本企业，因订单不足 ...