Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall methanol production has decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The average weekly operating rate of domestic methanol-to-olefins has increased slightly due to the offset between the load reduction of multiple MTO enterprises in East China and the load increase of inland enterprises. With the implementation of the later maintenance plan of East China MTO, there is an expectation of a short - term load reduction in the MTO industry. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. In January, there is an expectation of a decrease in imports, and the port methanol inventory may decline from a high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2263 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol is 863591 lots, an increase of 50636 lots. The net long order volume of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is - 173209 lots. The number of warehouse receipts of methanol is 7655 sheets [3]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 382.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 266 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 259 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [3]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, an increase of 7.62 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.39 tons, a decrease of 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 22.95 yuan/ton, down 1.93 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, an increase of 25100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.42%, an increase of 1.11 percentage points [3]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 34.07%, down 4.17 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.96%, down 0.64 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 76.99%, down 3.31 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 67.57%, down 0.44 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 88.06%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. The disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1029 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.42%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 18.79%, up 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 23.68%, up 1.82 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 23.7%, up 1.85 percentage points [3]. Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 44.77 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.75 tons, an increase of 2.95 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 153.72 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 5.72 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.64 tons. The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in Zhejiang. As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62% [3].

Report Date - The report is dated January 12, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This period, domestic cis - butadiene rubber production remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market was boosted by a significant rise in raw material prices, and producers' sales improved. However, there was some inventory of sold but undelivered products, and the overall inventory level changed little. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. But due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain just - in - time procurement. It is expected that the inventory of producers and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. With the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 11,700 - 12,500 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 22,742, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,597. The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,530 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,950 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 63.34 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.35 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan was 551.25 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 725 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,105 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil was 59.12 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 669 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons; the producer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 410 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2] Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. In December, the capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene plants, and the supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of producers have improved [2] Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, but the suppression from the equity market trend and fundamental recovery still exists. The short - term profit - taking demand has increased, and the upward pace may slow down. The liquidity pressure in the bond market is expected to ease. In the short term, the necessity of further implementing loose monetary policies has decreased. The issuance scale of government bonds in the first quarter is expected to be roughly the same as that in the same period of 2025, and the supply - demand contradiction of ultra - long bonds still exists. Under the interweaving of multiple factors, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume Changes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为107.845（+0.06%）、105.625（+0.05%）、102.340（0%）、111.200（+0.3%）；成交量方面，T主力成交量64381（-8052），TF主力成交量64931（+10966），TS主力成交量37294（+9140），TL主力成交量99196（-14131）[2] - **Spread Changes**: Various futures spreads showed different changes, such as TL2603 - 2606价差为 - 0.10（+0.01），T2603 - 2606价差为0.09（+0.02）等 [2] - **Position Changes**: T主力持仓量230631（-2956），TF主力持仓量138859（-4328），TS主力持仓量70788（+1695），TL主力持仓量146919（-1308）；各合约前20名多空头及净空仓也有相应变化 [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Price Changes**: The net prices of several CTD bonds showed different changes, such as 250018.IB (6y) at 100.2091 (-0.0062), 220025.IB (6y) at 99.0955 (+0.2328) [2] - **Active Bond Yield Changes**: The yields of active bonds with different maturities changed, with 1y at 1.2700 (-3.50bp), 3y at 1.4575 (+0.25bp), etc. [2] 3.3 Short - term Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rate Changes**: Silver - pledged overnight at 1.3486 (+6.86bp), Shibor overnight at 1.3160 (+4.40bp), etc. LPR rates for 1y and 5y remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 861 billion, the maturity scale was 500 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 361 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - **Domestic Policy**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, including loan interest - subsidy policies for service providers, small and medium - sized enterprises, etc. [2] - **Domestic Inflation**: In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. Core CPI increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points [2] - **Overseas Situation**: The Fed's expectation of a rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 15, at 03:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions; at 17:00, the ECB will release the economic bulletin [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The late Fuji Spring Festival stocking in apple production areas has begun, with merchants mainly packaging their own inventory. The transaction atmosphere of fruit farmers' goods is not strong. The transaction in Shandong is sporadic, while that in Gansu is relatively stable. The number of inquiring merchants has slightly increased, but the sales in the distribution area are still weak. The inventory removal speed has slightly accelerated compared with last week, but is still lower than the same period last year. There may be a short - term trend of fluctuating and strengthening [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9630 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the main contract position is 129,001 lots, down 16,135 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures is 6,264 lots, down 1,942 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commodities) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade second - class fruit farmers' goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons; the weekly apple fruit wholesale price is 0.06 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 168.34 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 720.90 million tons, down 12.66 million tons; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 51.85%, down 0.57%; in Shaanxi is 55.35%, down 0.80%. The monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; the monthly export amount year - on - year is - 216,418 US dollars; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 11,179,460 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan; of bananas is 5.84 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan; of watermelons is 6.93 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.4 vehicles, down 4.85 vehicles; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 23.6 vehicles, down 8.15 vehicles; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 17 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 26.24%, up 1.22%; that of at - the - money put options is 26.21%, up 1.19% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continued to be strong during intraday trading. The prices of London silver and the main contract of Shanghai silver reached record highs. Driven by the shortage of physical inventory, the silver market continued to rise. The haze gradually dissipated, the US consumer confidence rebounded steadily, and the strong resilience of the employment market weakened the interest - rate cut expectation slightly. However, the market generally expected a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut within the year. In the future, due to the recent geopolitical turmoil, the safe - haven demand for precious metals increased, and the price center was expected to remain high. The shortage of physical silver inventory was difficult to ease quickly, significantly amplifying price elasticity. In the short term, it was necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk driven by concentrated long - position liquidation. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan strengthened the narrative of loose liquidity. Against the background of loose liquidity and stable interest - rate cut expectations, the medium - term bullish logic for precious metals had not changed significantly. In the medium and long term, the strategy of bargain - hunting should be adopted, while paying attention to short - term callback risks. Key attention should be paid to this week's US CPI inflation indicator [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was 1026.280 yuan/gram, up 19.8 yuan; the main Shanghai silver futures contract was 20945 yuan/kilogram, up 2214.00 yuan. - The main contract's open interest for Shanghai gold was 116,448.00 lots, down 2838.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,474.00 lots, up 6.00 lots. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai gold contract was 238,101.00 lots, up 76913.00 lots; for Shanghai silver, it was 1,207,190.00 lots, down 65969.00 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai gold was 97653 kilograms, unchanged; for Shanghai silver, it was 649,643 kilograms, up 29381 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1023.71 yuan/gram, up 20.22 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,432.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2081.00 yuan. - The basis of the main Shanghai gold futures contract was - 2.57 yuan/gram, up 0.42 yuan; for Shanghai silver, it was - 513.00 yuan/kilogram, down 133.00 yuan. - The holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF were 1067.13 tons, up 2.00 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,118.16 tons, down 235.44 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial net long position of gold in the CFTC was 227632.00 contracts, down 3541.00 contracts; for silver, it was 30,063.00 contracts, down 5821.00 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. - The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. - The US dollar index was 0.00, up 0.27; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 0.00, down 0.02 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 14.49, down 0.96; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.00, down 0.64. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.55, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 57.51, down 1.39 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In November 2025, global central banks net - purchased 45 tons of gold, a slight decline from the previous month but still at a high level. From the beginning of 2025 to the end of November, the cumulative net gold purchases reported by global central banks reached 297 tons. - On January 9, 2026, the US Supreme Court did not make a ruling on the tariffs imposed by President Trump. January 14 would be the next day for it to announce a decision. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that if the Supreme Court overturned the global tariffs, the government was ready to use other powers to quickly re - impose them. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 was completely dashed. In December 2025, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in January was 54, reaching a four - month high, with the expected value rising to 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectation for the next year was 4.2%, the same as the previous month. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 4.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95.6%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 27.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 71.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 1.1% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US December PPI year - on - year (%) - On January 13 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month (%) - On January 15 at 01:00, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate - On January 15 at 20:30, the European Central Bank to release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the gradual recovery of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 200,506 lots, up 2,788 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 70,564 lots, down 442 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,704 lots, down 3,822 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 14,823 lots, down 1,236 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 104,590 tons, up 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 330 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,408 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 458 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.27 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.54%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.82%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.76%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.74%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the corn industry dated January 12, 2026, covering various aspects of the corn and corn starch markets [1][2]. 1. Market Data Summary Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2,290 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,566 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is -18 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is -30 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1,092,707 lots, up 42,864 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 199,117 lots, up 1,957 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn is -161,288 lots, down 14,814 lots; for corn starch is -40,016 lots, up 664 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn is 38,075 lots, up 1,520 lots; for corn starch is 12,477 lots, unchanged [2]. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 329 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 445.25 cents/bushel, down 0.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly) is 1,537,728 contracts, down 5,287 contracts [2]. - Non - commercial net long positions in CBOT corn (weekly) is 60,112 contracts, up 6,920 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn is 2,354.41 yuan/ton, up 2.55 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CIF price of imported corn is 2,064.44 yuan/ton, down 1.78 yuan; international freight for imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis of the main corn contract is 64.41 yuan/ton, down 24.45 yuan; basis of the main corn starch contract is 4 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 424 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 626 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is -218 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; sown area is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine is 32 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 77.2 million tons, up 11.4 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 354 million tons, up 4.6 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly) is 175 million tons, up 18 million tons [2]. Industry and Downstream Situation - Import volume of corn (monthly) is 36 million tons, up 30 million tons; export volume of corn starch (monthly) is 19,170 tons, up 6,390 tons [2]. - Feed production (monthly) is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong is -9 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is 61 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is -49 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) is 30.1 days, up 0.18 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.17 million tons, down 0.11 million tons [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 62.04%, down 1.46 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 59.37%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.6%, up 0.25 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.01%, down 2.12 percentage points; for at - the - money put options is 11.01%, down 2.12 percentage points [2]. 2. Industry News - As of January 7, the sown area of the 2025/26 corn season in Argentina reached 89.1% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 84.2% a week ago but still 3.2% behind last year, indicating slower sowing this year [2]. - US corn has entered the export peak season, with relatively high short - term supply pressure. However, good US corn export conditions support its price. The market is awaiting the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [2]. - In China, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast production area is faster than the same period last year, and the traditional selling window has shortened, but there has been no large - scale supply. The regulatory reserve corn has not been implemented, while the supply from CGS and other sources continues to increase. CGS Inner Mongolia Branch has supplied 200,000 tons in a single week. Recently, snowfall has limited the supply from the grass - roots level, and traders' purchases are small. Deep - processing enterprises have slightly raised purchase prices [2]. - In the North China and Huanghuai production areas, as the Spring Festival approaches, the grain - selling speed of grass - roots farmers has not accelerated significantly. As the amount of dry grain increases and the quality improves, traders' willingness to build inventories of high - quality corn has gradually increased, and grass - roots trading is relatively stable. Feed - using enterprises have sufficient safety inventories, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. Processing enterprises adjust purchase prices according to the arrival volume [2]. 3. Core Views Corn - The corn futures price has increased with rising positions recently, showing a relatively strong performance, but the driving force for continuous growth remains to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Starch - As of January 7, the total corn starch inventory of enterprises is 112.5 million tons, up 0.20 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.14%. The enterprise inventory is still at a high level in the same period, and the overall supply pressure remains. However, after the sharp increase in tapioca starch prices, some downstream customers have resumed purchasing corn starch, increasing its demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking on corn starch prices. Recently, driven by the rise in corn prices, starch prices have also increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. 4. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rates, and inventory levels on Thursday and Friday [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract fluctuated with a bullish bias. The macro - environment is positive, with the National Business Work Conference from January 10th to 11th stating that the national business system in 2026 will focus on eight aspects, including optimizing the implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy and promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.05%. Terminal demand is relatively stable, and inventories continue to decline. Overall, the positive macro - atmosphere and positive market expectations support the bullish trend of hot - rolled coils. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 axis. The reference view is to go short on pullbacks and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,311 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,427,498 lots, up 10,408 lots [2]. - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 8,155 lots, down 1,248 lots [2]. - HC5 - 10 contract spread: - 19 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 139,537 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - HC main contract basis: 19 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 16,279.94 million tons, up 418 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 43.98 million tons, down 4.62 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 645.86 million tons, up 2.03 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 140.75 million tons, up 14.14 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 79.33%, up 0.37 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 86.06%, up 0.78 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 305.51 million tons, up 1 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 78.05%, up 0.26 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 77.32 million tons, down 5 million tons [2]. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 290.81 million tons, up 2.17 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 6,987 million tons, down 213 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 948 million tons, up 20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 0.1729 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 0.1069 million vehicles [2]. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 0.822 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 0.654 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 0.978 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and high vitality, and will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the cumulative annual retail sales were 23.744 million vehicles, an increase of 3.8%. In December, the retail sales of new - energy passenger cars were 1.337 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the cumulative annual sales were 12.809 million vehicles, an increase of 17.6% [2].

少，云南糖产糖进度较快，销量稍好于去年同期，整体数据中性偏空，不过市场对巴西出口前景下滑预期 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 白糖产业日报 2026-01-12 ，支撑糖市，短期糖价料震荡为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5285 | -3 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 431395 | -1418 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 8 ...