1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: Lithium prices hit new lows, with frequent shutdowns and production cuts by upstream lithium salt plants, and a continuous decline in high - frequency weekly production data. Downstream pessimism is strong, with only rigid demand procurement in the spot market and limited pre - holiday inventory build - up by enterprises. Despite production contraction, inventory remains high [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber decreased to varying degrees [4]. - Market: The main contract had a large - scale position transfer, with a reduction of over 50,000 lots during the week. The 7 - 9 spread quickly converged and was close to par, and the monthly spread was insufficient to cover the bag - changing cost. As of Friday, although the main contract closed higher, there were no signs of increased positions and trading volume, and a bottom could not be confirmed technically [4]. - Future outlook: Issues such as environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 110 | 110 | 0 | 0% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 661 | 678 | - 17 | - 2.51% | CNY/ton | | USD/CNY exchange rate | 7.195 | 7.184 | 0.01 | 0.15% | - | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 5.98 | 6.01 | - 0.03 | - 0.50% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0 | 6.05 | - 6.05 | - 100% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 5.98 | 6.03 | - 0.04 | - 0.70% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) | 6.36 | 6.45 | - 0.09 | - 1.40% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) | 6.97 | 6.97 | 0 | 0% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 94,658 | 92,391 | 2,267 | 2.45% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.09 | 3.11 | - 0.02 | - 0.64% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 21.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.48% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 14.85 | 14.65 | 0.20 | 1.37% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 12.90 | 13.00 | - 0.10 | - 0.77% | CNY 10,000/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulation and delivery: As of May 30, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 33,457 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 CNY/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 261,000 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of May 30, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 1,539 tons, an increase of 350 tons from the previous period. Affected by the falling lithium prices, upstream lithium salt plants frequently had information about maintenance and production cuts. However, salt lakes were still ramping up production, and the supply contraction failed to effectively drive inventory reduction, indicating an oversupply situation. The lithium ore port inventory was abundant, and price recovery would quickly stimulate supply elasticity [8]. - Import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. Among them, 20,200 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; 6,850 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. In April, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. Among them, 15,500 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. Although Chile's total lithium carbonate exports increased in April, the scale of exports to China decreased, which may drag down the import volume of lithium carbonate in China in May. In addition, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly this period, but currently, the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it has no continuous reference value for now [9]. - In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 298,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Recently, a mining company in Mali, Africa, said that due to market regulatory disturbances, the shipment of its spodumene concentrate was blocked. Currently, the company has signed an underwriting agreement with Hainan Mining. Overall, although the shipment of some lithium mines is blocked, the overall shipment scale of African lithium mines is still increasing [10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of May 30, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,984 tons, with an operating rate of 58.05%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,083 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,850 tons, with an operating rate of 46.29%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. In terms of prices, as of May 30, the prices of ternary materials weakened slightly. The price of ternary 6 - series decreased from 14.08 CNY 10,000/ton to 13.99 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of 8 - series decreased from 14.59 CNY 10,000/ton to 14.49 CNY 10,000/ton; the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.31 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.23 CNY 10,000/ton, and the price of energy - storage type decreased from 3.25 CNY 10,000/ton to 3.145 CNY 10,000/ton. Overall, the slowdown in the growth of the power terminal suppresses the prices of cathode materials. However, with the increase in the supply of lithium iron phosphate, the spot inventory of lithium iron phosphate has decreased slightly, indicating that downstream battery factories have some signs of restocking after a period of active inventory reduction. The market expects the production of cathode materials in June to be flat overall, and the prices of cathode materials are still expected to be weak in the off - season of demand [11]. - New energy vehicles: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in May last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 4.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the perspective of weekly consumption growth, the consumption growth of new energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the sales growth rate decreased from 32% at the beginning of the month to 31% this period. From the perspective of consumption structure, since the new - replacement policy has shown fatigue in tapping the potential consumption of residents, the consumption growth of passenger vehicles may be difficult to support the continuous growth of the industry. Currently, the policy focus is gradually shifting from passenger vehicles to heavy - duty trucks, electric boats, etc. Multiple departments have issued documents saying that they will increase the purchase subsidy for heavy - duty trucks, transportation, and other industries. According to the information from the Passenger Car Association, Beijing will issue an additional 20,000 new energy passenger vehicle indicators [12]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 94,658 tons, an increase of 2,267 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 33,401 tons, a decrease of 1,142 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 61,257 tons, an increase of 3,409 tons from the previous period. Overall, although the weekly production of lithium salt increased, the inventory accumulation was much higher than the production increase. There was some restocking behavior by downstream enterprises before the holiday, but the supply side was resilient, and the inventory reduction of upstream enterprises was weak, dragging down the inventory reduction process [13]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook Lack of driving factors for price increases, lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. The issues of environmental protection and involution governance in the lithium - battery market have not been verified. In the short term, there may be no external disturbances, and lithium prices will return to being dominated by supply - demand logic. The overall bearish fundamentals remain unchanged. In June, the production plans of cathode material plants vary, and it is difficult to effectively boost lithium salt consumption. Although there is information about production cuts on the supply side, inventory has not been effectively reduced, and the fundamentals lack support. Technically, although the main contract tried to rise on Friday, the upper shadow ended at the 10 - day moving average, and it finally closed below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume was limited, positions weakened, and there were no signs of bulls increasing positions at the bottom. The technical bottom has not been confirmed, and lithium prices may rebound and then fall again [14] 3.3 Industry News - A 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou will start trial production this year. According to the news from the Dalong Economic Development Zone, workers are currently carrying out operations such as factory building decoration, greening, and construction of auxiliary facilities at the construction site of the second - phase project of Guizhou Jiashang New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.'s 250,000 - ton lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park. The project is expected to complete equipment installation and commissioning in October and start trial production of the production line. After reaching full production, it can produce more than 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials per year [15]. - Longpan Technology plans to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan by 369.7056 million CNY. On May 29, Longpan Technology announced that it plans to use 80% of the funds raised from the issuance of H - shares to increase the capital of its subsidiary Changzhou Liyuan. Changzhou Liyuan plans to use the increased capital to increase the capital of its subsidiary LBM NEW ENERGY (AP) PTE. LTD. by 14 million USD. This capital increase constitutes a related - party transaction and needs to be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for review [15]. - Tianqi Lithium's 26,000 - ton lithium carbonate project is located in Jiangsu. Recently, the Zhangjiagang Municipal People's Government has publicized the environmental assessment of the 26,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of Tianqi Lithium New Energy Materials (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. The total investment is 207.4845 million CNY, and the construction scale is large. Relying on the existing lithium hydroxide production workshop and lithium hydroxide warehouse, a new carbon dioxide tank area will be added. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 26,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [15]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures price of lithium carbonate, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide, the price trend of imported lithium concentrate (6%), the production of lithium carbonate, etc., with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][22]

光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic expectations are somewhat divided. The US manufacturing PMI has a revision expectation, but the seasonally - adjusted non - farm employment expectation is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost support logic still exists, and the price may be corrected as the rumor about the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines is unconfirmed, but macro - disturbances need to be watched out for [3][11]. - On the fundamental side, last week, the rumor that the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines might be increased to 3.2 billion tons hit the previous strong cost - support expectation, and the nickel price hit a new low. After the rumor was unconfirmed, the main contract significantly reduced positions, pushing up the price. The supply of Indonesian laterite nickel ore remains tight, and the spot premium stays at a high level. The demand side has no incremental expectation, and the supply may remain high driven by export profits [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/26 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121100 | 122780 | - 1680 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15237 | 15594 | - 357 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 199380 | 198636 | 744 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 22057 | 22250 | - 193 | Tons | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Ore The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remains at $48.5 per wet ton, and that in Indonesia remains at $40.8 per wet ton. The rumor of increasing the approval quota of Indonesian nickel mines has not been confirmed, and the short - term cost - support logic still applies [6]. 3.2.2 Ferronickel The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 952 yuan per nickel point to 955 yuan per nickel point. In May, the expected output of Chinese ferronickel was about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. The import volume of domestic ferronickel in April was about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The expected output of Indonesian ferronickel in May was 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of +16.9%/-0.47%. Domestic steel enterprises have production - control expectations, and stainless - steel production may be suppressed. In addition, some stainless - steel plants and ferronickel plants in Indonesia are expected to reduce production, and the traditional consumption area may be sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 28,015 yuan per ton to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan per ton. In May, the expected output of nickel sulfate in terms of metal was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month change of -20.51%/0.39%. In June, the output of ternary materials is expected to increase month - on - month, about 64,600 tons in total, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of +30.95%/+1.36%. The consumption increment in the new - energy field is not clear, and it is difficult to have an obvious driving force for price increase [8]. 3.2.4 Macro - level Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but was later postponed. The market generally believes that Trump's tariff policy will still show the characteristic of "starting high and ending low". The US core PCE in April was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure has eased, which may boost the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [3][9]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - level - Supply side: In May, domestic production capacity was stable, and smelter production scheduling declined. The expected output of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons. The export scale of domestic electrolytic nickel in April was about 17,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150.3%. As of May 30, the export profit of Chinese nickel was $53.99 per ton. The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream has a strong willingness to buy at low prices [9]. - Terminal consumption: From May 1 - 25, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 53.5%. The consumption increment of new - energy vehicles weakened slightly in May, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to heavy - duty trucks and electric boats [10]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 41,553 tons, a decrease of 836 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,057 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 193 tons, and the LME inventory is 199,380 tons, a month - on - month increase of 744 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 221,437 tons, a month - on - month increase of 551 tons [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The 2.5 - billion - yuan lithium - ion battery cathode material industrial park project in Guizhou Dalong is expected to start trial production this year, with an estimated annual output value of 10 billion yuan after full operation [12]. - Guangxi Jinchuan Company has developed a new method for producing nickel sulfate [12]. - Trump postponed the decision on imposing a 50% tariff on the EU [12]. - The US International Trade Court initially blocked Trump's tariff measures, but the decision was postponed [12]. 3.4 Later Outlook The macro - economic expectations are divided, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. The cost - support logic still exists. Since the rumor about the approval quota is unconfirmed, the price may have a small - scale rebound, but macro - disturbances need to be vigilant [11].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Federal Court's block of Trump's tariff policy has temporarily alleviated market concerns about a "full - scale trade war," leading to a significant repair of market risk appetite. However, Trump may still restart protectionist policies, so policy risks need to be monitored [2]. - The domestic economy continues to show the characteristic of "volume up, price down" after the weakening of the policy pulse effect at the beginning of the year. Although export pressure has eased, domestic demand repair is weak, and the next policy observation window will be at the end of July [2]. - Various commodities have different trends. Precious metals are under pressure due to the decline in risk - aversion demand; copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level; aluminum prices are expected to oscillate; zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly; lead prices have limited downward space; tin prices may be weakly adjusted; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices may correct the price difference; nickel prices are weakly adjusted; crude oil prices oscillate; steel and iron ore prices are weakly adjusted; and agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil also show different trends [3][6][8][12][13][14][16][18][21][22][23][24][25][26] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.04%; LME copper closed at 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars or 0.31% [27]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,095 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.27%; LME aluminum closed at 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars or 0.72% [27]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 0.89% [27]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.54%; LME zinc closed at 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars or 0.74% [27]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.71%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar or 0.03% [27]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan or 1.93%; LME nickel closed at 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars or 1.85% [27]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,690 yuan or 2.91%; LME tin closed at 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars or 2.82% [27]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,312.40 dollars/ounce, up 12.70 dollars or 0.38%; SHFE silver closed at 8,225.00 yuan/kg, up 8.00 yuan or 0.10%; COMEX silver closed at 33.10 dollars/ounce, down 0.29 dollars or 0.87% [27]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan or 0.54%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% [27]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [27]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 28, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,870 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,566 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,850 tons to 154,300 tons [28]. - **Nickel**: On May 28, SHFE nickel's main contract was 119,950 yuan/ton, down 2,360 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,095 dollars/ton, down 285 dollars. LME inventory increased by 864 tons to 200,862 tons [28]. - **Zinc**: On May 28, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,210 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME zinc was 2,689 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 143,450 tons [31]. - **Lead**: On May 28, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,705 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; LME lead was 1,989 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,325 tons to 291,050 tons [31]. - **Aluminum**: On May 28, SHFE aluminum's continuous - three contract was 19,975 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,465 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 377,325 tons [31]. - **Alumina**: On May 28, SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,991 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the previous day; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,289 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [31]. - **Tin**: On May 28, SHFE tin's main contract was 257,000 yuan/ton, down 7,790 yuan from the previous day; LME tin was 31,495 dollars/ton, down 915 dollars. LME inventory increased by 20 tons to 2,680 tons [31]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices were mostly unchanged on May 28. COMEX gold's inventory remained unchanged at 38,814,647 ounces, and COMEX silver's inventory increased by 1,070,427 ounces to 498,373,208 ounces [31][33]. - **Steel Products and Iron Ore**: Rebar's main contract was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; iron ore's main contract was 698.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Other related prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [33]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's main contract was 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 25.5 yuan from the previous day; coking coal's main contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan [33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 28, lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.05 yuan, down 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.3 yuan, down 0.08 yuan [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 28, industrial silicon's main contract was 7,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the average price of 421 silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: On May 28, CBOT soybean's main contract was 1048.5 yuan/ton, down 13.25 yuan from the previous day; the main contract of soybean meal was 2961 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract of rapeseed meal was 2604 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [33][35].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The US "soft data" has significantly recovered, with the May consumer confidence index and Dallas Fed business activity index exceeding expectations. Market risk appetite has been boosted, leading to a strong rebound in US stocks, a rise in the US dollar index, and a decline in gold, copper, and oil prices. In China, industrial enterprise profits have shown a weak recovery, and the A-share market has been volatile and differentiated [2][3]. - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to the easing of the US - EU trade war and the return of market risk appetite. Gold and silver futures closed lower on Tuesday [4]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, while disruptions in overseas mines and low domestic inventories provide support [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate. Low inventory provides support, but the expectation of the consumption off - season exerts pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate with both support and pressure. The reduction of imported bauxite in Guinea provides bottom - price support, while the resumption of production in domestic southern enterprises limits the upside [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to return to low - level oscillation. The market has digested the news of extended maintenance in South China, and supply is expected to recover [11]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillation. Tight lead ore supply and cost support limit the adjustment space, but weak consumption lacks a strong rebound driver [12]. - Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the market is waiting for more driving factors [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to decline. Supply is tightening, but demand is weak, and social inventory has decreased slightly due to reduced production [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing a large - scale position - changing. Short - term long - short competition may intensify. Attention can be paid to the effectiveness of the bottom signal of the 09 contract [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. Although macro - economic data is better than expected, weak demand drags down prices [19][20]. - Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. OPEC + is expected to maintain significant production increases in July, and the US - Iran negotiation has eased contradictions [21]. - Steel prices are expected to run weakly. Spot trading volume has increased slightly, but demand is weak, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. - Iron ore prices are expected to run weakly. Supply pressure is emerging, and demand is weakening as the steel market enters the off - season [23][24]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean sowing progress is slightly lower than expected, and Brazilian exports are normal. Rapeseed meal prices are supported by tight supply [25][26]. - Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate. There is no clear driving factor, and the market is waiting for new information [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - SHFE copper closed at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 0.47%; LME copper closed at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 0.19% [28]. - SHFE aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.57%; LME aluminum closed at 2,483 dollars/ton, up 0.69% [28]. - SHFE zinc closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; LME zinc closed at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 0.13% [28]. - SHFE lead closed at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 1,989 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [28]. - SHFE nickel closed at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 0.38%; LME nickel closed at 15,380 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [28]. - SHFE tin closed at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME tin data was not available [28]. - COMEX gold closed at 3,327.40 dollars/ounce, down 0.90%; SHFE silver closed at 8,217.00 yuan/kg, down 0.76%; COMEX silver closed at 33.39 dollars/ounce, down 0.76% [28]. - SHFE rebar closed at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,111 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [28]. - DCE iron ore closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [28]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, SHFE copper主力 was at 77,900 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; LME copper 3 - month was at 9,596 dollars/ton, down 18 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,575 tons to 162,150 tons [29]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel主力 was at 122,310 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month was at 15,380 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 199,998 tons [29]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc主力 was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; LME zinc was at 2,709 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 151,150 tons [30]. - For lead, SHFE lead主力 was at 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; LME lead was at 1,988.5 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons to 292,375 tons [30]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum连三 was at 19,925 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month was at 2,483 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 381,575 tons [30]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina主力 was at 3,018 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 3,275 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [30]. - For tin, SHFE tin主力 was at 264,050 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan; LME tin data was not available. LME inventory decreased by 2,665 tons to 0 tons [30]. - For precious metals, there were no significant changes in SHFE gold and silver prices on May 27 compared to the previous day. COMEX gold and silver inventories had some changes [31][34]. - For steel products, the rebar主力 was at 2,980 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the iron ore主力 was at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [34]. - For lithium carbonate, relevant price data on May 27 was not fully available [34]. - For industrial silicon, the industrial silicon主力 was at 7,610 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan [34]. - For beans and rapeseeds, CBOT soybean主力 was at 1,061.75 cents/bushel; the bean粕主力 was at 2,966 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the菜粕主力 was at 2,599 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [34][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upstream lithium salt supply continues to shrink, but the overall scale is small, and port resources are still abundant, so there is no immediate concern on the supply side. The market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, but the actual implementation is uncertain, and the market has not fully priced in the incremental demand expectations. The spot market remains sluggish, with poor downstream stocking willingness and only meeting rigid procurement needs [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber both declined to varying degrees [4]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to severely rectify vicious involution and achieve healthy industrial competition. On May 21, affected by price declines, there were reports of production suspension and maintenance at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. Additionally, the market was worried about the impact of environmental protection incidents in Jiangxi on supply. Under these events, lithium prices rebounded after hitting a low on May 20 due to a large number of short - position profit - taking. However, as concerns eased, most of the previous gains were reversed on Friday [4]. - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), battery - grade lithium carbonate spot, industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot, lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained), lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary material (811), and ternary material (622) all declined to varying degrees, with the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 100%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.35% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,773 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 318,500 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 15,048 tons, a decrease of 805 tons from the previous period. Affected by weak prices, there were reports of production cuts at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. A smelter under Zhongkuang will start a 4 - month production suspension and maintenance in June, affecting a monthly output of about 1,500 tons. Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that the 40,000 - ton salt lake lithium project put into production this year may achieve an actual output of 3,000 tons within the year, and it is likely to be put into production in the fourth quarter. Overall, although there are more definite production suspension information, the scale is limited. Supported by high imports and abundant lithium ore, there is no immediate concern on the supply side [8]. - In terms of imports, in April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import volume from Chile was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%. The import volume from Argentina was 6,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. Chile's lithium carbonate export volume in April was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. The export volume to China was 15,500 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. The scale of lithium carbonate exported to China has weakened, which may drag down the import volume in May. The scale of lithium salt imported from Argentina has increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it currently has no continuous reference value. In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The incremental volume mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Although the shipping of lithium ore from a mining company in Mali, Africa, was blocked, the overall shipping scale of African lithium ore is still on the rise [9][10]. - On the demand side, in the downstream cathode materials sector, as of May 23, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,275 tons, with an operating rate of 57.3%, unchanged from the previous period, and inventory decreased by 587 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,820 tons, with an operating rate of 46.19%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory increased by 90 tons. The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate also decreased. The market expects a slight expansion of cathode plant production scheduling in June, but the terminal consumption is about to enter the off - season, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation can be realized [11]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, from May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 484,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 52%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 3.808 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a weakening trend in early May, and the year - on - year sales growth rate decreased from 37% in April to 32%. Although the International Energy Agency predicts that new energy vehicle consumption is expected to exceed 20 million units this year, accounting for about 25% of the total new car sales, with high hopes for China's consumption growth, the purchasing power of Chinese residents may be lower than expected. With the arrival of the consumption off - season in the third quarter and the base effect of last year's replacement policy, the future consumption growth rate is not optimistic [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,391 tons, an increase of about 318 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons, and market inventory increased by 560 tons. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate despite the further contraction of supply, and the scale of resource transfer from upstream to downstream was limited [14]. This Week's Outlook - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [15]. Industry News - On May 22, Rio Tinto was confirmed as the preferred partner for the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in northern Chile by the Chilean National Mining Company (ENAMI). Rio Tinto will acquire an initial 51% stake in the project, and the Chilean National Mining Company will hold the remaining stake. Rio Tinto will provide about $425 million in cash and non - cash contributions, including its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology [16]. - On May 20, Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its new 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and the company will strive to further increase production [16]. - On May 21, the Zhangye Municipal People's Government promoted the investment attraction of a metal lithium project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone. The project is expected to invest 560 million yuan, and the estimated annual output value after completion is 300 million yuan. The project is currently in the planning and preparation stage [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [18][20][23][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. The month - on - month increase in palm oil production in the producing areas narrowed, showing a moderate growth trend. The export demand increased month - on - month, and it was in a stage of both supply and demand growth. It was expected that the inventory in May would increase. The domestic palm oil inventory stopped falling and increased, and the tight pattern was alleviated. Market news said that the US biodiesel exemption might reduce the consumption of oils and fats, which had an overall negative impact. [3][6] - Macroscopically, Trump agreed to resume the window period of trade negotiations with the EU, the risk - aversion sentiment might ease, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the oil price continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased moderately, the export demand increased slightly month - on - month, and it was expected that the inventory in May would continue to rise. At the same time, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy still existed. The fluctuation range of the market decreased, and the subsequent trend should be monitored. In general, palm oil might fluctuate in the short term. [3][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 0.3 to 49.22 cents per pound, with a gain of 0.61%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 13 to 3825 ringgit per ton, with a gain of 0.34%. The DCE palm oil contract rose 22 to 8006 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.28%. The DCE soybean oil contract rose 20 to 7774 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.26%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 114 to 9391 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.23%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 50 to 8600 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.58%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 to 8030 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 160 to 9610 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.69%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 232 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan from the previous period. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1617 yuan per ton, up 94 yuan from the previous period. [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.72%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.38%, and the production increased by 3.72%. UOB estimated that the production from May 1 - 20 would decrease by 1% to increase by 3%. MPOA data showed that the production increased by 3.51%. [7] - Export: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products was 741,560 tons, a 5.3% increase. According to SGS data, the export volume was expected to be 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase. According to Amspec, the export volume was 720,422 tons, a 1.55% increase. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the 9.5% export tariff range. [7][8] - Import: In April 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to April, China's soybean oil import volume was 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. In April, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume was 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase. [8] - Policy impact: The US government planned to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which would reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel. It was expected that the US biodiesel production would decrease by nearly 4.6 million tons, and the consumption of about 5 million tons of oil raw materials would be reduced. If the exemption period lasted for 3 years, the annual consumption of biodiesel made from oils and fats in the US would decrease by nearly 1.6 million tons in the future. [9] - Inventory: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8085 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from the previous week and 160,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 656,300 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 204,500 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 359,700 tons, an increase of 22,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 39,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 403,900 tons from the same period last year. [9] - Transaction volume: As of the week of May 23, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 36,420 tons, compared with 11,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly trading volume of palm oil was 504 tons, compared with 531 tons in the previous week. [9] Industry News - MPOC stated that the price of crude palm oil in May was expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. It was expected that the global vegetable oil demand from June to September would be beneficial to palm oil, limiting the further decline of prices. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs was expected to increase the import volume and might reduce the import demand for soybean oil. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil had narrowed to $51. Due to the high - base effect, the production from May to September was expected to only increase moderately. The sluggish export performance in March and April led to an increase in inventory. The export of Malaysian palm oil to Sub - Saharan Africa increased by 24% in the first four months of 2025, and the export to ASEAN increased by 8%, but the export to other regions decreased. The production of US biodiesel decreased, and the consumption of major biodiesel raw materials also decreased sharply. [11][12] - The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Eddy Martono said that increasing the special export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10% would weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil products in the global market. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance decided to increase the special export tax on palm oil from 7.5% to 10% from May 17, 2025. [12] Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the spot - futures spreads of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils. [13][14][15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated and declined. The macro - situation is complex, with the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the recovery of US PMI in May, and a stable employment market, but the US Treasury market turmoil continues and Trump's tariff policy affects market risk appetite. In China, economic indicators in April weakened. Fundamentally, global zinc ore supply recovery remains on track, refinery profits are being repaired, and the zinc ingot import window has closed. However, domestic refined zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand shows mixed performance. Overall, due to the fragility of market risk appetite, weak domestic economic drive, and the expectation of looser supply, zinc prices are expected to remain volatile and weak [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,500 yuan/ton to 22,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,686 dollars/ton to 2,712.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.38 to 8.19. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,278 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 250 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc changed to ZN2507, with the price rising first and then falling, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. LME zinc fluctuated around 2,700 dollars/ton, closing at 2,712.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. In the spot market, the supply was not significantly loose, and the spot premium was relatively stable. In terms of inventory, as of May 23rd, LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,278 tons, and as of May 22nd, social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. In the macro - aspect, the US May PMI improved, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9th. In China, economic indicators in April weakened [6][7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 23rd, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates remained unchanged. Canada's Ivanhoe Mines suspended the underground mining of Kakula copper mine due to earthquakes. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The import of refined zinc was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. The export of galvanized sheets was 1.2901 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.32%, and the export of alloys was 1,281.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 472.07%. Russia's Kyzyl - Tashtyg zinc mine will continue to operate [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [1][4][10]. - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.47 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.16 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.04 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the factory inventory was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.63 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons [1][5]. - Overall, the industrial data last week was poor. The overall steel production increased, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline. The real estate continued its weak trend, infrastructure investment was stable but not strong, terminal data was poor. Coupled with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot - rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | - 36 | - 1.17 | 6951630 | 2902476 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3189 | - 37 | - 1.15 | 2170566 | 1353196 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 718.0 | - 10.0 | - 1.37 | 1542621 | 756347 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 801.5 | - 51.0 | - 5.98 | 2192852 | 568597 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1383.0 | - 62.5 | - 4.32 | 110769 | 56994 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The real estate investment at the terminal was weak, industrial data was poor, and the expectation of weak consumption increased, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 10) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3180 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (- 30) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, presided over a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It also emphasized increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption boosting, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, making full use of existing and incremental policies, strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, and maintaining a fair market competition order [6][7]. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the rebar basis trend, the hot - rolled coil basis trend, the rebar spot regional price difference trend, the hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the profit of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][13]