1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import cost of soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. Attention should be paid to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market has been experiencing high - level提货, and it is expected that the spot side may start destocking in September, which will support the oil mills' profit margins. In the future, it is necessary to focus on whether the improving situation of US soybeans and the trading during the Brazilian planting season can marginally improve the current oversupply situation. Regarding the profit margins, attention should be paid to whether the提货 level can be sustained. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: In August, US soybeans maintained a monthly - level sideways oscillation trend. The US soybean balance sheet tightened marginally as the production decreased, but the global soybean supply remained loose without significant marginal improvement. The expected good situation of the US soybean balance sheet supported the CBOT futures. The Brazilian soybean premium quotes decreased due to rumors of Sino - US soybean negotiations, and the import cost of soybeans slightly declined in August. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a slightly low level. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes as normal, the Brazilian soybean quotes may still have a small downward space compared with previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decrease in the US soybean yield per unit and the trading during the Brazilian planting season, the room for further decline in the domestic soybean import cost is limited, but the upward space is also restricted by the fact that the supply side has not shown a significant downward trend [10]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: In August, the domestic soybean meal spot price was mainly weakly stable, and the basis was stable. The decrease in Brazilian prices led to a decline in import costs, which pressured the domestic soybean meal futures prices. The domestic trading volume was average, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.87 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of August 26, the institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases for March were 1.379 billion tons, April 1.029 billion tons, May 1.181 billion tons, June 1.272 billion tons, July 1.069 billion tons, August 917 million tons, September 850 million tons, and October 706 million tons. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale提货 of domestic soybean meal currently, the market may have stocked up in advance for the double festivals. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong提货 situation. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will first experience a decline in profit margins due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season. After that, the market trend will depend on the development of the South American planting season [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [10][11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Relevant charts show the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Relevant charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [21][22]. - **Price Spreads**: Relevant charts show the price spreads such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, soybean meal 01 - 05, and soybean meal 03 - 05 [24][25]. - **Fund Positions**: Relevant charts show the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [27][29][30]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Relevant charts show the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate from 2021 - 2025 [33][34]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Relevant charts show the precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the probability of La Nina occurrence and its impact on climate [36][38][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Relevant charts show the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year [52][53]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Relevant charts show the monthly import and forecast of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 - 2025 [55][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Relevant charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills in China [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Relevant charts show the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2021 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Relevant charts show the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills from 2021 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Relevant charts show the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast from 2021 - 2025 [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption**: Relevant charts show the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021 - 2025 [69]. - **Breeding Profit**: Relevant charts show the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2021 - 2025 [71][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recovery speed of the terminal market is slow, and the upstream valuation is difficult to expand. PX, PTA, and MEG markets have different supply - demand and inventory situations. PX and MEG are expected to have inventory accumulation, while PTA is expected to continue de - stocking. The polyester end is gradually warming up, but the terminal performance is still poor. Attention should be paid to the follow - up performance of terminal orders and the opportunities of going long on dips following the raw materials during the peak season [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last month, the price first declined with crude oil and then increased due to unexpected production cuts in the raw material end. However, the actual unexpected maintenance volume was lower than expected, and the terminal performance was weak, suppressing the raw material valuation. Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. But due to the commissioning of new PTA devices, the inventory accumulation range of PX is not large. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downside space. However, due to the lack of driving force, PXN has limited upward momentum. The current valuation is at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [11] - **PTA**: Last month, the processing fee first increased after unexpected maintenance and then was compressed again. PXN was weak due to inventory accumulation, and crude oil fluctuated downward, causing the PTA price to rise and then fall. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to de - stocking. However, due to the non - implementation of some maintenance, the processing fee is suppressed. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester and chemical fiber is low, and the downstream and terminal operations have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. In terms of valuation, PXN has limited downside space under the improved pattern brought by PTA commissioning, and the raw material end valuations are all at low levels. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the terminal performance improves during the peak season [12] - **MEG**: Last month, the port inventory continued to decline, providing strong support for the overall valuation. However, the valuation weakened with the news of new device commissioning plans. In terms of industry fundamentals, the maintenance devices at home and abroad have gradually started, and the operation rate has reached a high level, with a high domestic supply. However, due to the low port arrival volume in the short term, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the low short - term arrival volume supports the valuation, but there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread strengthened. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [32][39][42] - **PTA**: The basis gradually weakened, and the spread was weak. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are shown in relevant charts [45][51][54] - **MEG**: The basis first declined and then strengthened, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The open interest was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [57][63][66][69] - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are shown in relevant charts [71][72] 3. Para - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025, such as the 300 - ton new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao [76] - **Supply**: The domestic and Asian PX loads are at a high level, and the maintenance volume in September is expected to further decrease, with an expected increase in production. The import volume from South Korea to China in August increased slightly [11] - **Demand**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [11] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased year - on - year at the end of July, is expected to accumulate slightly in August, and will continue to accumulate in September [11] - **Cost and Profit**: PXN decreased by 33 dollars last month, and the short - process profit is relatively strong. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending oil market improved slightly, and the gasoline cracking spread was weak [11][95] 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 250 - ton new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) in 2025 [127] - **Supply**: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [12] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [12] - **Inventory**: The PTA social inventory decreased year - on - month in August, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in September [12] - **Profit and Valuation**: The spot and futures processing fees increased month - on - month, but the overall processing fee is still weak [12] 5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity**: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 80 - ton new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical 1 in 2025 [142] - **Supply**: The overall load of MEG has risen to a high level. The load of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production has increased. The import volume decreased slightly in July, and the arrival volume is expected to increase in the middle and late September [13][145] - **Demand**: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased year - on - month, and the downstream factory inventory days decreased slightly. Although the domestic production increased in September, the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the concentrated arrival of ships in the middle and late period. In the medium term, inventory accumulation is expected [13] - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price was weakly volatile, and the ethylene price increased slightly. The valuation of MEG profit is relatively high [13][167] 6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **Capacity**: New polyester filament devices have been commissioned, and new capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 20 - ton new capacity of Hengchao in 2024 [184][187] - **Supply**: The operation rate has continued to recover, and the operation rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have increased [190][193] - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polyester filament is moderate, the short - fiber inventory is neutral year - on - year, and the bottle - chip inventory is still high [197][200] - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [206] - **Terminal** - **Operation**: The operation rate is still weak year - on - year [210] - **Orders and Inventory**: Orders have continued to improve, inventory has decreased, and raw material inventory has increased [219] - **Consumption**: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand has decreased, and exports are weak [224]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream market consumption is still average during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season. However, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined. - In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton prices rose and then fell, facing significant selling pressure, and cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - **External Market**: In August, the price of US cotton futures showed a weak oscillation. As of August 29, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 66.53 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.69 cents per pound from the previous month, a decline of 1.03%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton weakened slightly, reaching - 1.9 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.52 cents per pound from the previous month. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of August 29, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,240 yuan per ton, an increase of 400 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 2.89%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis weakened, reaching 1,128 yuan per ton, a decrease of 453 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, reaching 40 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information** - As of the week of August 29, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.9%, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.2%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.55 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons from the same period last year. - At the end of August, the National Development and Reform Commission announced matters related to the electronic application for the processing trade import quota of preferential tariff rates outside the cotton tariff quota in 2025. The total volume of the sliding - scale duty processing trade quota for cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons. - According to the August forecast data of the US Department of Agriculture, the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was reduced by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; the Chinese production forecast was increased by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts of Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was reduced by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was reduced by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio was reduced by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies** - Based on fundamental analysis, the short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The short - term assessment of various factors shows that the basis weakened slightly, the monthly spread oscillated, the spinning immediate profit remained inverted, and the marginal changes in the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and cost were not significant [9][10]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the historical trends and changes of these spreads [26][27][29]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation The report shows multiple charts related to the domestic cotton market, including domestic cotton production (processing and inspection quantity, processing volume), cotton import volume (monthly and annual cumulative), US export contract quantity to China,棉纱 import volume, downstream operating rates (spinning and weaving mills), national sales progress, cotton inventory (weekly commercial and monthly commercial + industrial), and spinning mill raw material and finished product inventories [38][40][42]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Charts of CFTC fund net positions and commercial net positions are presented [58]. - **US Situation**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation (proportion of non - drought - affected planting area, excellent - good rate), production situation (bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume), production and planting area forecasts, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [60][62][64]. - **Brazil Situation**: Charts of Brazil's cotton planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [73][76]. - **India Situation**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [81][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI in August improved compared to the previous month but remained below the boom-bust line. Both supply and demand showed a month-on-month improvement, and the price level rebounded under the "anti-involution" policy. However, the export may face pressure in the future as the effect of pre-exporting weakens. In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of supporting funds, and it is generally expected that the funds will remain loose in the future. Looking ahead, with weak domestic demand recovery and the likelihood of continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward room. However, in terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the bond market is expected to be in a short-term volatile pattern. The bond market should be considered for long positions on dips in the medium to long term [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Environment**: The manufacturing PMI data in August showed a slight overall improvement, with both supply and demand ends recovering. The "anti-involution" policy boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, although the import and export data in July exceeded expectations due to the pre-exporting effect, exports may face pressure in the future due to the overdraft of pre-exporting and the rising base in the second half of the year. Overseas, the market has strong expectations for a US interest rate cut in September, which is beneficial for financial market liquidity. On September 5, the central bank conducted a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [14]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [15]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y Treasury yield closed at 1.80%, down 4.76BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield closed at 2.07%, down 6.85BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.17%, down 6.00BP week - on - week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to take long positions on dips for a single - sided strategy, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [20][23][26][29][32][33]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [38]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In August, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry recovered. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and computer communication and electronic equipment had production and new order indices higher than the overall manufacturing PMI, while industries such as textile and clothing, wood processing and furniture, and chemical raw materials and chemicals were below the boom - bust line [44]. - **Price Index**: In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0.0%, the core CPI was up 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was 0.4%, the core CPI was 0.4%, and the PPI was - 0.2%. The increase in the month - on - month CPI was mainly driven by seasonal factors and the rise in consumer goods prices, while the year - on - year decline in PPI remained flat and the month - on - month decline narrowed [47]. - **Export Data**: In July, China's imports and exports recovered due to pre - exporting, with exports (in US dollars) increasing by 7.2% year - on - year and imports increasing by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.59% year - on - year [50]. - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, both showing a slowdown [53]. - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.0%. In July, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.5%, and the year - on - year price was - 5.9%. The new construction area in July was 352060000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the new construction area under construction was 6387310000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion data in July decreased by 29.46% year - on - year, and the new home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [56][59][62]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the annualized US GDP at current prices was 30331 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In July, the unadjusted CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The durable goods orders in July were 3028 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 3.26%. The non - farm payrolls increased by 73000 in July, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52 [65][68][71]. - **European Economy**: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter. In August, the preliminary value of the eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI in August was 50.7, and the service industry PMI was 50.5 [71][74]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In July, the growth rate of M1 was 5.6%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The incremental social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with an increase of 3893 billion yuan year - on - year. The new RMB loans were nearly - 500 billion yuan, and social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds. Both corporate and household credit weakened [79]. - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In August, the MLF balance was 55500 billion yuan, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [85]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [88]. - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts**: The report presents charts of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and exchange rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [92][95][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently adjusted, and together with the shrinking market trading volume, the short - term index faces certain adjustment pressure. However, in the long - run, policies still support the capital market, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Chinese President proposed to build an AI application cooperation center; the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of repurchase operations; Wu Qing aimed to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6%, and retail sales rose by 3.7% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points. In July, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, and exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% respectively [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: In August, the stock market rose significantly, causing the 10 - year Treasury bond rate to rebound and the credit bond rate to decline, with a lower credit spread and loose liquidity [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3857.93, up 7.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12696.15, up 15.32%, etc. [14]. - **Futures Market**: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of increase [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%. In July, consumption growth was 3.7%, exports increased by 7.2%, and investment growth was 1.6% [31][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rate was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the net profit growth rate was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [40]. 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded, and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate is presented in the chart [43]. - **Credit Environment**: In July 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly due to government bonds and bill financing growth, while resident and corporate credit data declined [54]. 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 20.528 billion shares of partial - stock funds were newly established, and ETF trading volume increased rapidly. In August, the margin trading balance increased by nearly 300 billion yuan, reaching a record high [60][63]. - **Outflow**: In August, major shareholders had a net increase of - 34.467 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 7 [66]. 3.6 Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 11.83, 13.85, 32.09, and 44.68 respectively; the price - to - book ratios (LF) were 1.29, 1.44, 2.13, and 2.37 respectively [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon remained in a "weak reality" situation in August with both supply and demand increasing, and its price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. The market should pay attention to the second - wave fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment and the impact of downstream polysilicon capacity integration [15]. - Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. If there was substantial progress in capacity integration in September, the price was expected to rise, with high volatility in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67%. DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58%. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33%. At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) [13]. - As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Industrial Silicon**: In August, both supply and demand of industrial silicon increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" pattern. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with an estimated price range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price was expected to be highly volatile in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 49 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg [25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Production**: In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas**: The document shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main producing areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. - **Production Cost**: As of August 31, 2025, the electricity price and silicon coal price in main producing areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan [46]. - **Visible Inventory**: At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 261,400 tons, market inventory was 174,500 tons, and registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Production**: In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduling**: In August, the operating rate of polysilicon was 45.78% (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 6.55 percentage points. SMM predicted that the production in August would be 126,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in the operating rate [57]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, polysilicon inventory was 233,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) and 213,000 tons (SMM), with a certain reduction in factory inventory [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,322.29 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), and the gross profit was 6,153.90 yuan/ton, showing a continuous month - on - month improvement [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: In August, silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 3.29 GW; cumulative production from January to August was 429.12 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. As of August 31, 2025, silicon wafer inventory was 18.05 GW (SMM), a slight month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in September was 57.53 GW, a continuous month - on - month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In August, battery cell production was 58.27 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 0.08 GW; the operating rate was 56.89%, a monthly decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 446.87 GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81 GW (SMM), a month - on - month increase; the predicted production in September was 60.04 GW, a slight month - on - month increase [74][77]. - **Module**: In August, module production was 49.2 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 2.1 GW; the operating rate was 49.09%, a monthly increase of 3.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 379.6 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. As of September 1, 2025, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.9 GW (SMM), a month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in August was 50.3 GW, an increase compared to August [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Production**: In August, DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 10,750 yuan/ton (SMM), a monthly decrease of 1,650 yuan/ton. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,859.38 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), showing a month - on - month weakening [95]. - **Inventory**: As of August 31, 2025, DMC inventory was 49,300 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 3,600 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of August 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,140 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,770 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 680 yuan/ton. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.3% [103][106]. - **Export**: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33% [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In August, aluminum prices showed a high - level oscillating trend. The spread of SHFE aluminum continued to narrow, and the spot market showed obvious regional differentiation, with the East China region relatively stronger. The LME market's Cash/3M shifted to a premium structure. - Fundamentally, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate, and the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. Demand showed structural differentiation, the proportion of molten aluminum rebounded, and the production scheduling data of home appliances indicated a weak expectation for "Golden September". The production schedules of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all decreased year - on - year. - Overall, aluminum prices oscillated between macro expectations and fundamental realities. The enhanced overseas interest - rate cut expectation provided support, but the continued domestic inventory accumulation and the weak improvement in terminal demand restricted the upward price space. This month, focus on the fulfillment of peak - season demand and the inventory trend. If the inventory shows an inflection point, aluminum prices are expected to rise further. The operating range of the main SHFE aluminum contract this month is expected to be 20,300 - 21,400 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME 3M aluminum is expected to be 2,540 - 2,720 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. The domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. The spot basis of aluminum ingots both at home and abroad strengthened during the month [12]. - Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In August, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports widened month - on - month [12]. - Demand: According to Aizhe Consulting's research, the weekly downstream operating rate rebounded at the end of August, but the operating rates of each sector varied. Most processing plants increased production, and there were signs of improvement in the demand side. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in September, consumption may continue to improve [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In August, SHFE aluminum oscillated at a high level, rising 250 yuan/ton during the month with the center of gravity shifting upward, and LME aluminum rose 2.11% [22]. - Term Spread: In August, the spread of SHFE aluminum continued to decline [27]. - Spot Basis: In August, the aluminum ingot spot in the East China region changed from a short - term premium to a discount, and the discounts in the South China and Central China regions widened [30]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In August, the East China spot strengthened relatively [33]. - LME Premium and Discount: In August, the LME market's Cash/3M changed from a discount to a premium [39]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: In August, the average smelting profit of primary aluminum was 4,284.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 104.5% [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 610,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation continued, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 126.1%. The LME inventory was 481,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% [47][53]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of August, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 143,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to accumulate [50]. - LME Inventory Structure: The proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing the proportion of Russian aluminum [57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In August, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite were stable [65]. - Alumina Price: In August, the domestic alumina price decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the import price decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In August, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased by 24 yuan/ton during the month [75]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July and a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects. The output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [83]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: In August, the domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.3%. The ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. As downstream consumption enters the peak season, it is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will continue to rebound in September [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In August, the output of each province remained basically unchanged compared with July. The output in Shandong decreased by 18,700 tons, and the output in Yunnan increased by 28,000 tons [89]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In August, the output of Chinese aluminum rods was 1.5345 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, plate - strip - foil, primary aluminum - based alloy ingots, and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises was weak in the off - season in July. In August, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys decreased by 504 yuan/ton to 424 yuan/ton [95][104][108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in September 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 10.75 million units, a decrease of 12.0% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.21 million units, a decrease of 6.3% compared with the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 8.11 million units, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year. The demand expectation related to home appliances was still weak. Currently, the real - estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were acceptable, the photovoltaic installation decreased, and the related demand also faced pressure [112]. 7. Imports and Exports - Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, China imported 248,200 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month increase of 29.07% and a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.99%. In August, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports widened. In July, the aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc., with 190,834 tons from Russia, accounting for 77% [117][120]. - Aluminum Product Exports: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [123]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In July 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. The import volume in the first seven months was 1.173 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [123]. - Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports: In July 2025, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, with the imported ore accounting for 77.7%. The cumulative imported bauxite from January to July was 123.31 million tons. In July, China exported 229,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 34.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export from January to July was 1.57 million tons [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is the worst in reality, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future, and the room for further price decline is relatively limited. The market is currently in a state of weak reality but improving expectations, with spot prices stabilizing, and basis and inter - month spreads rising from the bottom. The market has started to focus on potential subsequent positive factors [11]. - It is recommended to pay attention to going long and positive spread trading opportunities at low prices [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, against the backdrop of the domestic downstream off - season and increased imports, port inventories continued to rise, spot prices fluctuated weakly, and the basis and inter - month spreads generally fell to low levels. As negative factors were gradually realized, the market began to focus on potential positive factors in September, such as the expected startup of port MTO and the impact of overseas gas restrictions [11]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In August, domestic methanol production was 8.36 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. Overseas operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and imports were expected to return to high levels in August. Coal prices declined slightly from high levels, with a relatively small impact on the cost side [11]. - **Demand**: Port olefin plants continued to be shut down in August but were expected to resume operation in September. Traditional demand was currently weak but was expected to improve in the peak season [11]. - **Valuation**: As spot prices bottomed out and rebounded, the basis and inter - month spreads showed signs of stabilization. Coal prices declined slightly, and coal - to - methanol profits remained at a high level compared to the same period last year. The profits of port MTO plants returned to the medium - high level of the same period, and the high valuation of methanol began to be corrected downward [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories increased by over 570,000 tons in August, reaching a new high, with the latest port inventory at 1.4277 million tons. Enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly month - on - month, and the current inventory level was at a low level compared to the same period, with less pressure on enterprises [11]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to going long and positive spread trading opportunities at low prices [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Transaction Volume and Open Interest**: The market continued to increase positions [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Cost and Profit**: Coal - to - methanol production profits were good, while port inventories were at a historical high, and factory inventories had less pressure [34][37][39]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Capacity**: New domestic methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into operation in 2025, mainly in the northwest region [48]. - **Production and Import**: Domestic methanol operating rates are expected to continue to rise, and overseas operating rates have returned to a high level compared to the same period, with subsequent import pressure remaining [11]. - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume data shows the arrival situation in different regions [63][64]. - **International Price Difference and Domestic Freight**: There are price differences between domestic and international markets, and domestic freight also shows certain trends [68][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: MTO profits are continuously being repaired, and the operating rates of related plants are expected to improve [79]. - **Downstream Products**: The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as PP also show different trends [81]. - **Related Spreads and Demand Structure**: There are certain spreads between MTO - related products, and the demand structure of methanol downstream also shows different characteristics [84][92]. 3.6 Option - Related - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Volatility**: The document provides data and trends on methanol option volume, open interest, and volatility [107][109]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The document provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [112][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].

OPEC测试市场 价值修复不改 原油月报 2025/09/05 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估&策略推荐 05 原油需求 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 08 另类数据 01 月度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 资料来源：NYMEX、五矿期货研究中心 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6 ...