Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has fluctuated. The bullish sentiment in commodities is expected to continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are more affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment radiation may shrink in the short term [8]. - The prices of steel products are in a weak oscillation at the bottom. The supply of hot - rolled coils may contract in the short term, and the overall supply - demand of rebar is neutral. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [2]. - The price of iron ore may adjust at a high level and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and molten iron production rhythm [5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are mainly affected by market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and high - volatility risks [14]. - The price of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [17]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and new changes in exchange risk - control measures [20]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash market will continue to be weakly sorted out. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand situation of both [23][25]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Market Quotes**: The total price of steel is 3170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract is 3276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts are 190,202 tons, a decrease of 4160 tons compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 1.4861 million lots, a decrease of 15,864 lots compared with the previous period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The steel price is in a weak oscillation at the bottom. The explosion accident at Baogang may lead to a short - term decline in the start - up rate of steel mills in some areas and support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction and policies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 789.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.57% (- 4.50). The position changed by - 29,929 lots to 586,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore is 944,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.48 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.01% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume continues to decline, the molten iron output decreases, and the port inventory accumulates. The iron ore price may adjust at a high level and fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and molten iron production rhythm [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Quotes**: On January 20, the main ferromanganese contract (SM603) continued to fall, closing at 5760 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rebounded after reaching the bottom, closing at 5552 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The bullish sentiment in commodities will continue, but the main line is still precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes**: On January 20, the main coking coal contract (JM2605) fell 4.30%, closing at 1124.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) fell 2.76%, closing at 1673.5 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and fell last week, mainly due to the decline in market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment and high - volatility risks [13][14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% (- 100). The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 50,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% (+ 195) [16][18]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The price of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction by large factories and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises. The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and new changes in exchange risk - control measures [17][20]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The main glass contract closed at 1056 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, a decrease of 1.31% (- 14). The main soda ash contract closed at 1177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% (- 15) [22][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The glass market is expected to oscillate widely, and the soda ash market will continue to be weakly sorted out. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand situation of both [23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's expectation of imposing tariffs on key minerals weakens, and the US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, causing the equity market to weaken and market sentiment to cool. In the copper industry, the supply of copper mines remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong but North American inventories are increasing marginally, and the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. Therefore, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [3][4]. - Tensions between Europe and the US have weakened market sentiment. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low global LME aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downward space of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment is expected to increase, and with the "rush to export" expectation in the photovoltaic industry, aluminum prices still have support in the short term [4][5]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong price support. However, demand is relatively average, so prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [8][9]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates is declining, the operating rate of primary lead remains high and is further slightly adjusted upwards, the raw material inventory of the secondary lead end is rising, and the weekly operating rate of secondary lead is marginally adjusted upwards. The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises is marginally improving, and the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Lead prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the medium term during the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12][13]. - The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly declined, and the imported TC of zinc concentrates has slightly declined. Although the rise in zinc prices has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, the industrial situation has not significantly improved. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to accumulate, and the Shanghai - London ratio has stagnated and declined. Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14][15]. - The supply - demand situation of tin has marginally improved, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. [16][17][18] - Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The progress of mine type changes in two lithium mines in Jiangxi has been made, but the market is more worried about the reduction of mica ore mining due to compliance issues. The main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit at the end of the session. The uncertainty of the mine end is strong in the short term, and the expectation of supply contraction has not been falsified. Market sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt [21][22]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the market's expectation of supply contraction policies is increasing, there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. - The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to remain tight, and market sentiment is optimistic. Stainless steel shows a trend of increasing volume and price. The supply of raw materials is restricted, the production scheduling of many mainstream steel mills has slowed down, and market arrivals are tight. Although price increases have stimulated some traders to stock up, end - users' acceptance of high prices is limited. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and prices may show a high - level fluctuation pattern [27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and copper prices declined. LME copper 3M closed down 1.47% to $12,796/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99,930 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.4 to 148,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and the market trading sentiment was weak. The spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and trading was average. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The price difference between refined and scrap copper was 3,000 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. In December 2025, the import volume of copper scrap increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is expected to trade in the range of $12,500 - 13,000/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum closed down 1.48% to $3,118/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,775 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum slightly increased to 699,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 140,000 tons. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in three major regions increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods slightly increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rebound, and market sentiment was cautious. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of 23,500 - 24,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is expected to trade in the range of $3,080 - 3,150/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.55% to 22,765 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position declined to 23,800 lots, and the trading volume was 11,800 lots, with increased trading volume. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 69,100 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in domestic mainstream regions decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. Trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three major regions decreased by 0.01 to 43,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.25% to 17,228 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 9.5 to $2,058/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 165,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 203,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 40,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.13 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 115.6 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.21, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 106.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 29,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [12][13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% to 24,417 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 4.5 to $3,227/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 233,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 35 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai region basis was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,500 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 41.66 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 4.06 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,034.38 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 112,100 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, tin prices stabilized and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 399,000 yuan/ton, a 2.44% increase from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 461 tons from the previous day to 8,860 tons. In terms of supply, the smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and with normal production. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, was accelerating, and the rise in tin prices increased the enthusiasm for resumption of production. In December, it was estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore would be imported, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan had been significantly alleviated compared with the previous period, with an expected increase in subsequent imports. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, the sharp rise in Shanghai tin futures prices last week significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. Currently, enterprises generally followed up with small amounts based on rigid demand, controlled inventory levels, and there was no obvious release of spot circulation. Under the high - premium pattern, market trading was light, and the operating rates of some processing enterprises decreased significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade in the range of 360,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to trade in the range of $47,000 - 51,000/ton [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands varied. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price of Shanghai nickel is expected to trade in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to trade in the range of $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 152,431 yuan, a 5.52% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 - 156,400 yuan, and the average price increased by 8,050 yuan (+5.56%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 146,200 - 153,200 yuan, and the average price increased by 5.31% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 160,500 yuan, an 8.99% increase from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. According to customs data, in December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month and a 14% decrease from the same period last

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] - For methanol, with low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] - For rubber, expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] - For PVC, in the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] - For polyethylene, although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] - For PX, expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] - For PTA, expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.27%, at 437.00 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed inventory accumulation. Crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.90 million barrels to 92.37 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.00 million barrels to 95.56 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.90 million barrels to 187.93 million barrels [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed changes, with Jiangsu down 13 yuan/ton, Lunan down 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract decreased by 27.00 yuan/ton to 2206 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 64 yuan [1][2] - **Strategy View**: With low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, with Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, Henan down 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1775 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 25 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire factory operating rates changed, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China increased. Spot prices of related products also changed [7][8][9] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 6 yuan to 4807 yuan, and the basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. changed. Cost - end prices were stable, and the overall operating rate was 79.6%. Factory and social inventories changed [12] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, while styrene spot prices rose and futures prices fell. Supply - side operating rates and inventories changed, as did demand - side operating rates [15] - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [20] - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7232 yuan, and the CFR price rose 9 dollars to 888 dollars. PX and PTA operating rates changed, and import and inventory data were reported [22] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 114 yuan to 5144 yuan, and the spot price rose 35 yuan to 5015 yuan. PTA and downstream operating rates changed, and inventory decreased. Processing fees increased [25] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 81 yuan to 3661 yuan, and the spot price fell 36 yuan to 3601 yuan. Supply - side operating rates changed, and downstream operating rates decreased. Import and inventory data were reported, and cost - end prices changed [29] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as tariff expectations and market liquidity. Although there are some negative factors, the sentiment is not overly pessimistic in the context of a bullish precious metals market and loose US financial market liquidity expectations. In the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is generally regarded positively. However, the prices of different metals will show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME copper 3M rose 1.28% to $12,987/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 101,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 3,850 tons to 147,425 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by about 10,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The SHFE copper spot import loss was about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,440 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump's additional tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the US plan to impose additional tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment. However, with the strong performance of precious metals and the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market, the sentiment is not pessimistic. The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME spot market is strong, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 100,000 - 103,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,200/ton. [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On January 19th, LME aluminum closed up 1.12% at $3,165/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,225 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract position slightly increased to 698,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 tons to 141,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 15,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum bar social inventory increased by 9,000 tons. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 485,000 tons. [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The precious metals market has strengthened again, and market sentiment has improved. The high spot premium of US aluminum and the low LME global aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downside of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment may increase. Coupled with the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, the aluminum price may be relatively strong in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 23,900 - 24,400 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,120 - 3,200/ton. [5][6] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.68% at 22,890 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 11,100 lots, a decrease month - on - month. The warehouse receipts decreased by 400 tons to 69,700 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts was 1,200 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month. The average price of mainstream domestic ADC12 remained flat, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased by 300 tons to 43,200 tons. [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and supply - side disturbances continue. However, demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [9] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 1.65% to 17,185 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S fell $26.5 to $2,048.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 166,000 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 135 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 206,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 43,700 tons. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has declined, and the operating rate of primary lead has remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory on the recycling side has increased, and the weekly operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery manufacturers has improved marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots has increased. After the winter cooling, the transportation of waste batteries has become difficult, the scrap pricing coefficient has increased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has declined slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [11][12] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index fell 1.17% to 24,456 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 232,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S fell $41.5 to $3,222.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 232,200 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,420 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was at par, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 40 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,500 tons. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrates has decreased slightly. However, the increase in zinc price has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, and the industrial situation has not improved significantly. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to increase, and the SHFE - LME ratio has stopped rising and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of SHFE zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. The zinc price has a large potential for catch - up growth compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. It has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades. However, in the double - wide cycle, the non - ferrous metals sector is still regarded positively. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the SHFE - LME ratio need to be observed. [14] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the tin price continued to weaken. The SHFE tin main contract closed at 389,500 yuan/ton, a 3.88% decrease from the previous day. The smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and production was normal. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar has accelerated, and the increase in tin price has boosted the enthusiasm for resumption. In addition, it is estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore will be imported in December, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan has significantly eased compared to the previous period, with an expectation of further import increases. However, after the two regions resumed from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were constraints on the scrap side and downstream high - price waiting - and - seeing. The short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday. [15][16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation of tin has improved marginally, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on the price. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, the tin price may continue to decline in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME tin is $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [17] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 19th, the nickel price rebounded after hitting a low. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 142,710 yuan/ton, a 0.66% increase from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand gradually declined. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The nickel ore price remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of nickel iron increased significantly, and the average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,012 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day. [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory in the short term. It is expected that the SHFE nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the SHFE nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton. [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 144,461 yuan in the evening session, a 2.84% decrease from the previous working day. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 143,500 - 146,300 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 4,100 yuan (- 2.75%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 140,600 - 143,700 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 3.30% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 147,260 yuan, a 0.73% increase from the previous day's closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. [22][23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic sentiment has eased, and the lithium price fluctuated widely on Monday. The progress of mine type change in Jiangxi mines has been made, but even if the mining license is obtained, there are still procedures such as the safety production license and environmental impact assessment approval, and it is difficult to directly translate into supply at present. The impact of this event on the sentiment level should be mainly concerned. If the increase in lithium price is fully transmitted to the end - users, the increase in battery cost will suppress some energy - storage demand, and the current price still has a certain emotional premium. The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly recently, and there are many disturbances in the industrial and macro aspects. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt. Pay attention to the market atmosphere, demand policies, downstream acceptance willingness, and changes in position on the disk. The reference range for the GZFE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 140,200 - 151,000 yuan/ton. [23] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 19, 2026, as of 3 pm, the alumina index fell 0.69% to 2,726 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 704,400 lots, an increase of 12,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,565 yuan/ton, at a discount of 168 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $305/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 82 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Monday were reported at 187,900 tons, an increase of 111,000 tons from the previous trading day. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $63/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $60/ton. [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the resumption of production in the AXIS mine is expected to cause the ore price to decline in an oscillatory manner. Pay attention to the support at the import cost position of Guinea ore. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to prevent blind investment and disorderly construction in alumina and copper smelting, and the market expectation for the implementation of supply - contraction policies in the future has increased. However, continued rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The cost - performance of chasing up is not high. One can wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contract at a high price. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [26] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,305 yuan/ton, a 0.21% (+ 30) increase on the day, with a unilateral position of 263,700 lots, an increase of 2,294 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 455 (- 130), and the Wuxi basis was - 205 (- 80). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 1,015 yuan/nickel, unchanged from the previous day. The recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market continued to cool, and the prices of finished steel products remained in a weak oscillation within the bottom range. The explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory may lead to a new round of safety inspections in the steel industry, with a possible short - term decline in the operating rate of some steel mills, which supports the prices of hot - rolled coils [2]. - The prices of iron ore may face adjustments at high levels due to market sentiment fluctuations and the impact of the explosion accident. Future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. However, short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [15]. - The prices of industrial silicon may oscillate repeatedly. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts by large factories and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - The prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [21]. - The glass market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3140 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2132 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 27384 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3299 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 12645 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices both decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views** - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled, and steel prices oscillated at the bottom. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to supply contractions, supporting hot - rolled coil prices. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils and rebar is generally neutral, and future focus should be on inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils and "dual - carbon" policies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 794.00 yuan/ton, down 2.22% (-18.00). The positions decreased by 32521 lots to 61.63 million lots. The weighted positions were 96.64 million lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 804 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.07% [3]. - **Strategy Views** - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the recent arrival volume decreased. The daily molten iron output decreased, and the blast furnace maintenance and restart were both ongoing. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. The iron ore price is supported but lacks new driving forces. After the explosion accident, the molten iron production may decline slightly, and future focus should be on steel mill restocking and molten iron production rhythms [4]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 19, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.34%, closing at 5808 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 62 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) fell 0.39%, closing at 5548 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a premium of 252 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment of many commodities has cooled, and the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have adjusted. The supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future price trends will be affected by the overall market sentiment, cost factors, and "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to potential supply - restricting events in manganese ore and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 19, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) rose 0.30%, closing at 1174.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal price was 1582.1 yuan/ton, up 1.7 yuan/ton, with a premium of 218 yuan/ton over the futures. The coke main contract (J2605) rose 0.23%, closing at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke price was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a discount of 105.5 yuan/ton to the futures [11]. - **Strategy Views** - The prices of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined last week due to the cooling of market sentiment. In the future, the overall commodity market may maintain a bullish sentiment, but short - term fluctuations may occur. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and short - term market sentiment fluctuations and high - volatility risks should be noted [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8845 yuan/ton, up 2.79% (+240). The weighted positions decreased by 2267 lots to 369608 lots. The spot prices of East China 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with bases of 355 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 50505 yuan/ton, up 0.61% (+305). The weighted positions decreased by 1833 lots to 82463 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material all rose by 0.15 yuan/kg, with a basis of 4495 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Views** - Industrial silicon: The price may oscillate repeatedly due to short - term news disturbances. The supply has decreased, and the demand has weakened. If the production cut of a large northwest factory is implemented, the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Future focus should be on the implementation of production cuts and the production adjustment rhythms of downstream enterprises [18]. - Polysilicon: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The futures positions and liquidity have declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and potential changes in exchange risk - control measures [20][21]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: The closing price of the main contract was 1070 yuan/ton, down 2.99% (-33). The North China and Central China spot prices remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 250.50 million cases (-4.51%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 18703 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 34198 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract was 1192 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda spot price remained unchanged. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 0.23 million tons (-4.51%), with the heavy - soda inventory increasing by 0.18 million tons and the light - soda inventory increasing by 0.05 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders decreased 14963 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased 30133 lots [25]. - **Strategy Views** - Glass: The market sentiment has weakened, and the supply - demand is in a loose balance. The supply is at a low level, the demand is light, and the inventory is still higher than in previous years. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 1015 - 1170 yuan/ton [24]. - Soda ash: The market continued to oscillate weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend, with the main contract reference price range of 1150 - 1270 yuan/ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Stock Index**: In the long - term, policies support the capital market, and in the short - term, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 2. **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery momentum needs further observation, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market rally, government bond supply pressure, and inflation expectations in the first quarter [6]. 3. **Precious Metals**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, it is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [8]. 4. **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as supply and demand, tariffs, and market sentiment [11][13][16]. 5. **Black Building Materials**: The steel market continues to be weak and volatile, and iron ore prices may be adjusted at high levels. Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and strong. Glass and soda ash markets lack obvious drivers and are expected to be volatile [32][35][39]. 6. **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be short - sold if it breaks through a certain price, and methanol is recommended to be bought on dips [57][61]. 7. **Agricultural Products**: The short - term of some agricultural products such as live pigs and eggs may be strong, while the medium - term of live pigs may be under pressure. Protein meal and oil prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [81][83][86]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. Memory chip shortages intensify, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short - term, as the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year and the unchanged policy support for the capital market in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts change. China's GDP in 2025 grows by 5%, and relevant economic data for December 2025 is released. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 722 million yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum is uncertain, the demand side is weak, and the bond market is expected to be volatile in the first quarter, affected by factors such as the stock market rally and government bond supply [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rise, and relevant information about the Fed's new chairman's candidate and the Fed's independence is provided [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is negative for gold and silver prices, but in the medium - term, buy on dips after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rise, LME copper inventory increases, domestic electrolytic copper inventory changes, and the import loss and refined - scrap copper price difference are given [10]. - **Strategy**: Although market sentiment is affected by tariffs, it is not pessimistic. The copper price is expected to be volatile at a high level, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise, inventory changes, and the processing fee and spot premium/discount are provided [12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [14][15]. - **Strategy**: The industrial situation has no obvious improvement, but zinc has a large room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fall, inventory and basis data are provided, and LME's delivery policy change is announced [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead supply increases, and the price may be affected by market sentiment. Observe the trend of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise, and the cost and price of nickel ore and nickel iron change [19][20]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall, supply and demand change, and inventory increases [21]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price index of lithium carbonate falls, and the futures price rises [22]. - **Strategy**: The price fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price index of alumina falls, inventory increases, and relevant cost data are provided [24][25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts on rallies, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise, inventory decreases, and raw material prices are provided [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, with a reference price range for the main contract [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is stable, inventory decreases, and the price difference between contracts changes [28]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile and consolidate in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall, and inventory and position data change [31]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is weak and volatile. The explosion at Baotou Steel may lead to a short - term supply contraction, and attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking and policy changes [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore falls, and relevant data such as inventory and basis are provided [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure eases, but the new driving force is insufficient. The price may be adjusted at high levels, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and hot metal production [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rise, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but attention should be paid to short - term market sentiment shocks and high volatility risks [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: - **Market Information**: The price of glass falls, inventory decreases, and position changes [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand are in a loose balance, and the price is expected to be volatile in a wide range, with a reference price range for the main contract [40]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash is stable, inventory changes, and position changes [41]. - **Strategy**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted out, with a reference price range for the main contract [42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fall, and relevant spot and futures price and basis data are provided [43][44]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment affects the price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [47]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of large - factory production cuts [49]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon rises, and relevant inventory and basis data are provided [50]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [51]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are weak, with different views from bulls and bears. Tire factory开工率 changes, and inventory increases [53][54][55]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy if the price breaks through a certain level, and consider partial position - building for a spread trading strategy [57]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the inventory of refined oil products changes [58]. - **Strategy**: Raise the valuation of heavy - oil products, and expect the spread of asphalt or fuel oil to rise [59]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol changes, and MTO profit changes [60]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips due to geopolitical expectations [61]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea changes, and the basis is provided [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC falls, and relevant cost, supply, and demand data are provided [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is poor, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term, with short - term support from electricity prices and export - rush [68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short - term and expect further valuation compression in the medium - term [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy**: The price may be supported by inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on the spread between LL5 and LL9 contracts on dips [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP falls, and relevant supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [77]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year under the background of weak supply and demand [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends in the north and south, and the market sentiment changes [80]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure due to large supply [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mostly stable with some declines, and inventory and demand data are provided [82]. - **Strategy**: The short - term is strong, but the overall supply is abundant. The long - term of the far - end contract is expected to be good, but there are uncertainties [83][84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal fall, and relevant trade and inventory data are provided [85]. - **Strategy**: The prices are affected by multiple negative factors, and short - term fluctuations may increase [86]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils fall, and relevant inventory and policy information are provided [87][88]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term is expected to be optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fluctuates, and relevant import and production data are provided [90][91]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. The short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton fluctuates, and relevant import, production, and inventory data are provided [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room for growth in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February when the increase in production is fully realized. The domestic sugar price has limited downside in the short - term due to reduced imported sugar supply, and it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - For cotton, in the long - term, cotton prices have room to rise due to reduced planting area and positive macro - expectations. However, due to the recent large increase, it is recommended to wait for a pullback before buying [8]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly negative, and the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is negative for domestic meal prices. The potential reduction of the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is also negative for domestic rapeseed prices. The price of protein meal is at a previous low, and short - term volatility will increase [11]. - For oils, the current fundamental situation is weak with high inventory in palm oil - producing areas and in China. However, the long - term outlook is optimistic, so it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term [16]. - For eggs, the near - term contracts may fluctuate with limited upside and downside, while the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is positive but uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the short - term structural contradiction supports the near - term contracts, while the medium - term supply pressure may weigh on far - end prices [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5244 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The new sugar prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups decreased, while the mainstream price of processed sugar increased slightly [2]. - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons [3]. - In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of then, the cumulative sugar production was 40.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The sugarcane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%, and the cumulative crushing volume was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36% [3]. - As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 [3]. - As of the week of January 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 48, up from 44 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.6629 million tons, up from 1.5823 million tons [3]. Strategy - Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February. Domestically, due to reduced imported sugar supply and low prices, wait and see in the short - term [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [5]. - As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons [5]. - The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December forecast and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [7]. - The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease from the previous forecast [7]. - Brazil's cotton production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, India's decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [7]. - As of the week of January 8, the current - year US cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 191,000 tons. The export sales to China were 13,600 tons that week, and the cumulative export sales to China were 85,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 71,200 tons [7]. Strategy - In the long - term, cotton prices have room to rise. Wait for a pullback to buy [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, protein meal futures prices declined. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2727 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% [10]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2370 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton [10]. - China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the total import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% [10]. - As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans that week, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. The US exported 1.22 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 8.12 million tons [10]. - As of the week of January 16, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, a 6.47 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [10]. Strategy - The January USDA report is slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet is better than in 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is negative for domestic meal prices. The potential tax reduction on Canadian rapeseed is negative for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price is at a previous low, and short - term volatility will increase [11]. Oils Market Information - On Monday, oil futures prices declined. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 7996 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.25%, the closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8648 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.3%, and the closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8902 yuan/ton, down 161 yuan/ton or 1.78% [13]. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [13]. - As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week [13]. - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it at the current proposed level and may abandon the plan to impose penalties on the import of renewable fuels and raw materials [15]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan [15]. - The January USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 billion tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast but an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year [15]. - In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [15]. - As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. Wait and see in the short - term [16]. Eggs Market Information - Most egg prices in the country were stable, with a few declining. The average price in the main production areas dropped slightly to 3.66 yuan/jin. The supply was basically stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were confident about the future, the inventory at each level increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average. It is expected that most egg prices in the country will be stable, with a few declining [18]. Strategy - Near - term contracts may fluctuate with limited upside and downside, while the long - term outlook for far - end contracts is positive but uncertain [19]. Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices were weak in the north and strong in the south, with mixed trends. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.04 yuan to 13.53 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.11 yuan to 13.02 yuan/kg. After the continuous price increase, the southern downstream began to resist high - priced pigs, the market sales slowed down, the enthusiasm of farmers to increase prices may weaken, and pig prices may stabilize. In some northern areas, transportation may still be restricted, and the increase in farmers' sales may lead to a decline in pig prices [21]. Strategy - Short - term structural contradictions support the near - term contracts, while medium - term supply pressure may weigh on far - end prices [22].

贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.35 %，报 1053.46 元/克，沪银涨 5.88 %，报 23565.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4676.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 94.28 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 99.03 ； 在联储独立性方面，鲍威尔宣布将在周三出席美国最高法院关于理事库克的口头辩论，这是鲍 威尔对其最为显著的支持，意在维护央行独立性。 美联储主席新任候选人预期产生较大边际变化，年内联储大幅降息的预期有所弱化：联储新主 席的竞争格局由"双凯文"转向"沃什领跑"，此前，下任美联储主席的角逐主要聚焦在哈塞 特与前美联储理事凯文·沃什之间。哈塞特曾被视为头号热门人选，因为他与特朗普关系极度 亲近且政策立场更为鸽派，即最不具备独立性。但特朗普昨晚直言"哈塞特在媒体中表现不错， 可能会让他继续留任"。特朗普的表态令市场迅速调高了沃什接任联储主席的概率。沃什被认 为在维护美联储独立性与执行总统意志 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Middle East does not strongly support overall oil prices, but the valuation of heavy - oil products will rise significantly. The valuation of heavy - oil products is upgraded to overweight, and the crack spreads of asphalt or fuel oil may have upward momentum [2] - The current methanol valuation is low, and its outlook for the next year will improve marginally, with limited downside space. Despite short - term negative pressure, the recent geopolitical instability in Iran has created certain geopolitical expectations, making it feasible to buy on dips [4] - The current domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations for urea are approaching, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [7] - Rubber is in a seasonally weak period. Currently, a bearish mindset is adopted. If RU2605 falls below 16,000, a short - term bearish strategy will be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 [12] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. Although short - term electricity price expectations and pre - export rush support PVC, in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is still the main approach until there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14] - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [17] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch issues. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20] - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The futures price is expected to bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [23] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season, but there are medium - term opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil on dips [26] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, and the rhythm should be grasped [29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. In the medium term, if there are no further domestic production cuts, the valuation is expected to be compressed [31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.52%, at 437.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil products rose 3.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.12%, at 2538.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.07%, at 3060.00 yuan/ton [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 1.12 million barrels to 11.72 million barrels, a 10.56% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.16 million barrels to 14.99 million barrels, a 1.06% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.08 million barrels to 6.74 million barrels, a 1.12% decrease; naphtha inventory increased by 0.95 million barrels to 6.19 million barrels, an 18.21% increase; aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 7.62 million barrels, a 0.72% decrease; the total refined oil inventory increased by 2.10 million barrels to 47.25 million barrels, a 4.65% increase [1] 3.2 Polyester - Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 17 yuan/ton, southern Shandong by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main futures contract changed by 36.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2212 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Urea - Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast China by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 22 yuan/ton [6] - The main futures contract changed by - 19 yuan/ton, closing at 1772 yuan/ton [6] 3.4 Rubber - Rubber prices fluctuated weakly, with a technical bearish outlook. Bulls cited seasonal expectations and improved demand expectations, while bears pointed to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal weak demand [9] - As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than the previous week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of all - steel tires was under pressure, and it was in the pre - Spring Festival inventory production stage. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year [10] - As of January 11, 2026, China's total social inventory of natural rubber was 1.256 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 2.5% to 835,000 tons, the inventory of light - colored rubber increased by 0.8% to 421,000 tons, and the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 563,900 (+19,600) tons [10] - In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was at 15,000 (- 100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1880 (- 20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was at 1885 (- 20) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at 9500 (- 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was at 11300 (- 200) yuan [11] 3.5 PVC - The PVC05 contract fell 2 yuan, closing at 4801 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4560 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 18) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 115 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - In terms of cost, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2500 (+100) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 710 (- 20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 635 (- 23) yuan/ton [13] - The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 80%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 78.8%, a 0.8% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 43.9%, a 0.1% decrease. The in - factory inventory was 311,000 (- 17,000) tons, and the social inventory was 1.144 million (+30,000) tons [13] 3.6 Pure Benzene & Styrene - In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure - benzene contract was 5827 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton; the pure - benzene basis was - 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7295 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton; the basis was - 45 yuan/ton, a weakening of 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 157.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.75 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 38.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [16] - On the supply side, the upstream operating rate was 70.86%, a 0.06% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 31,700 tons to 100,600 tons [16] - On the demand side, the weighted operating rate of three S products was 41.91%, a 1.02% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.40%, a 1.50% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 54.05%, a 7.34% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 69.80%, unchanged [16] 3.7 Polyethylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6775 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 108 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 28 yuan/ton [19] - The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 45,100 tons to 350,300 tons, and the inventory of traders was 29,200 tons, unchanged. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan expansion [19] 3.8 Polypropylene - Fundamentals showed that the closing price of the main contract was 6482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6565 yuan/ton, unchanged, the basis was 83 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 14 yuan/ton [21] - The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 36,700 tons to 431,000 tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 10,800 tons to 193,900 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 500 tons to 70,600 tons [21] - The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 185 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan narrowing [22] 3.9 PX - The PX03 contract rose 20 yuan, closing at 7106 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 879 US dollars. The basis was - 9 yuan (- 25) after conversion according to the central parity of the RMB, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (+2) [25] - In terms of PX load, China's load was 89.4%, a 1.5% decrease; Asia's load was 80.6%, a 0.6% decrease. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, while overseas, Thailand's PTTG and Israel's Gadiv plants restarted [25] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 146,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of January, a year - on - year increase of 7000 tons [25] - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of November was 4.46 million tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 331 US dollars (+6), South Korea's PX - MX was 142 US dollars (0), and the naphtha crack spread was 78 US dollars (- 10) [25] 3.10 PTA - The PTA05 contract rose 12 yuan, closing at 5030 yuan. The East China spot price rose 10 yuan, closing at 4970 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 42 yuan (- 2) [28] - The PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Dushan Energy's plant increased its load, while Yisheng New Materials' plant shut down. The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted [28] - The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 9 was 2.005 million tons, a 25,000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee rose 11 yuan to 314 yuan, and the on - paper processing fee fell 2 yuan to 368 yuan [28] 3.11 Ethylene Glycol - The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan, closing at 3755 yuan. The East China spot price fell 28 yuan, closing at 3637 yuan. The basis was - 121 yuan (+11), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (- 4) [30] - On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 74.4%, a 0.3% increase. Among them, the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol load was 80.2%, a 0.9% increase; the ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol load was 71.2%, a 0.1% decrease. Tianye reduced its load in the synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol segment; Chengdu Petrochemical shut down in the oil - chemical segment; overseas, a Kuwaiti plant shut down, and the US Sasol reduced its load [30] - The downstream load was 88.1%, a 2.7% decrease. Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament, China Resources' 1.2 - million - ton bottle chip, Shenghong's 250,000 - ton filament, Hanjiang's 300,000 - ton bottle chip, and Quandi's 250,000 - ton filament were under maintenance, Wankai's 200,000 - ton bottle chip reduced its load, and a large factory's 350,000 - ton bottle chip restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 70%, and the weaving load decreased by 1% to 55% [30] - The import arrival forecast was 148,000 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 16 - 18 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 795,000 tons, a 7000 - ton decrease. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - to - ethylene - glycol was - 904 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - to - ethylene - glycol was - 771 yuan, and the profit of coal - to - ethylene - glycol was - 5 yuan. The cost of ethylene fell to 710 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines rose to 600 yuan [30]