1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern. The downward movement of the futures price is supported by cost, while the upward space is restricted by supply and weakening demand. Price fluctuations are continuously narrowing, and the implied volatility of options has returned to historical lows. Although the current reality is still weak, the enterprise profit is at a low level, so the downward space is limited. If there is further positive news, the price is expected to break out of the trading range. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Price fluctuations gradually narrowed, and the price closed slightly lower throughout the week. The actual agricultural demand weakened, the compound fertilizer start - up rate increased, and the export volume was moderate. The overall performance was average, the basis of the futures market was weak, and the inter - month spread was at a low level in the same period. It is currently in a low - valuation and weak - driving pattern, and the further downward space is expected to be limited, but there is a lack of effective positive factors for an upward movement [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic enterprise start - up rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 1.24%, and it was at a medium - to - high level year - on - year. The daily output was 19.12 tons, and it is expected to rise again later [12]. - **Demand**: The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. Due to the production of autumn fertilizers, the start - up rate is expected to further increase in the short term. The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the fixed - bed production was in the red. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export is progressing moderately, showing a rather dull performance [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit was at a high level, and the domestic market was relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - to - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was low [12]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons. The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the inventory was at a high level year - on - year due to weakening demand [12]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts, including the seasonal chart of the 01 contract basis, the spot market price chart of Shandong urea, the 1 - 5 spread chart of urea, the term structure chart of urea, the position and trading volume charts of the 01 contract and the weighted position and trading volume charts of urea, to show the price, spread, position, and trading volume changes in the futures and spot markets [20][21][23][27]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The enterprise profit was at a low level, and the cost support will gradually strengthen. The report shows the profit charts of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - head production [30]. - **Inventory** - The enterprise inventory was 95.74 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.98 tons, and the port inventory was 46.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 tons [12]. - The report also includes inventory change projection charts, such as the end - of - month enterprise inventory projection chart and the port inventory and export volume chart [37][38]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Production Capacity**: It shows the urea production capacity chart and the planned production - start device chart. Multiple enterprises have planned new production capacity from 2024 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Urea Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate has fluctuated and declined. The report lists the start - up rate chart, the planned maintenance and long - shut - down device information of enterprises, and also includes the main production area enterprise advance order and monthly output projection charts [45][46][48][50]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: It shows the monthly consumption chart and the downstream demand proportion chart [53][54]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The start - up rate was 43.48%, a week - on - week increase of 1.98%. The report includes the compound fertilizer start - up rate, production profit, and price ratio charts with urea [56][57]. - **Melamine**: It shows the melamine start - up rate, profit, and export volume charts [61][64]. - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the export volume chart of plywood and similar multi - layer boards, the housing start - up and completion chart, and the 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction area chart [69][70][74]. - **Export**: The export profit was relatively high. The report shows the urea export volume, profit, export region, and sea - freight charts, as well as the export volume charts of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers [80][81][87][90]. 3.6. Options - Related - The report presents the position, trading volume, position PCR, trading volume PCR, and volatility charts of urea options [94][95][97][99][105]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - It includes the urea industrial chain chart, the research framework analysis mind - map chart, and the urea industrial chain characteristic chart. It also provides a seasonal overview of domestic and international crop fertilizer demand [107][108][111][113][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [1][81]. - The "anti - involution" policy has led to price fluctuations in related commodities, but the market is still in a state of emotional disturbance. Eventually, prices will move towards the fundamentals, which will take time [15][95]. - In the future, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, as well as the entire black sector, are likely to face a situation of weakening marginal demand. It is necessary to focus on changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state will introduce relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level. Manganese silicon production profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 298 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 258 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 476 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon production cost increases slightly, with Inner Mongolia at 6098 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6376 yuan/ton. Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week. Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week [14]. - Strategy: Given the current market situation of commodity price fluctuations and emotional disturbances, speculative funds are advised to wait and see, while industrial players can choose the right time for hedging [15]. 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 298 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is - 258 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [25]. - Production cost: Inner Mongolia is 6098 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 6058 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is 6376 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. - Manganese ore imports: In June, manganese ore imports were 268 tons, down 25.95 tons month - on - month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative imports were 1446 tons, up 48.52 tons or 3.47% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 9, 2025, manganese ore port inventory is 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons week - on - week [36]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week, with an accelerating increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is down about 4.34% year - on - year. In July 2025, manganese silicon output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 32.51 tons or 5.39% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. As of this week, cumulative weekly output is down about 2.57% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. Weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.54 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week [14][58]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [69]. - Sample enterprise inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 15.88 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [72]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon steel mill inventory is 14.24 days, down 1.25 days month - on - month, at a historical low [75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the manganese silicon futures price maintained a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.26%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, but the daily K - line is loose, disorderly, and the trend is weakening. Short - term support levels at around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level. Ferrosilicon production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The production cost of the main producing areas is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year [94]. - Strategy: Similar to manganese silicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [95]. 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - Production cost: The main producing areas' production cost is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke small material is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year. In July 2025, ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 0.56 tons or 0.18% year - on - year [116]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year [94]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period [139]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon steel mill inventory is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days month - on - month, at a historical low [142]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the ferrosilicon futures price continued to show a wide - range volatile trend, with a slightly narrowed fluctuation range and a weekly decline of 10 yuan/ton or - 0.17%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, and the daily K - line is loose and disorderly. Short - term support levels at around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [148].

需求承压，情绪降 温 螺纹钢周报 2025/08/16 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需189万吨，前值211万吨，环比-10.4%，同比-3.6%，累计需求6853万吨，同比-3.8%。 螺纹钢本周需求下降明显，除了本身淡季需求偏弱之外，还有一部分受到库存显性化的影响。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯06月进口15.5万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹社会库存415万吨，前值388万吨，环比+6.8%，同比-22.5%，厂库172万吨，前值168万吨，环比+2.4%，同比-6.9%。 合计库存587，前值557，环比+5.5%，同比-18.5%。 螺纹钢库存本周累库速度加快。 ◆ 利润:铁水成本2601元/吨，高炉利润131元/吨，独立电弧炉钢厂平均利润-56元/吨。 ◆ 基差：最低仓单基差-24元/吨，基差率-0.7%。 ◆ 小结：商品市场整体氛围明显降温，成材价格小 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - USDA significantly reduced the soybean planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month. In the short term, it is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, given the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the positive impact of EPA policies, and the sole supply of soybeans from Brazil from September to January, it is expected to maintain a stable and slightly upward trend. - The domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, USDA lowered the US soybean planting area by about 2.5 million acres. Farmers switched to corn due to the decline in fertilizer prices. After the yield per unit was increased, the total production decreased by about 1 million tons month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped from 7.06% to 6.66%, and that of global soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased from 29.65% to 29.38%. Trump called on China to buy soybeans, and US soybeans rose due to these two factors. The Brazilian premium quotes remained firm as there was no actual soybean trade between China and the US, and the soybean import cost increased significantly this week. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a low level, and Brazilian soybean quotes are supported by China's vessel bookings and Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes later, the rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Overall, the overseas soybean market is in a state of low valuation, support, and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a slightly stronger and stable state due to a single supply source. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot prices mainly followed the futures prices higher. The increase in soybean import costs drove the soybean meal futures to strengthen. This week, domestic trading was average, and提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.35 days, slightly higher than the same period last year and down 0.02 days month - on - month. As of August 12, institutional statistics showed that vessel bookings were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.17 million tons in August, 8.31 million tons in September, and 4.23 million tons in October. The current vessel - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. In the future, attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations and Brazilian premium information [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to be volatile. Given the bullish and bearish factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. No information on the arbitrage strategy was provided [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: Included charts of the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong to show the price trends [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Included charts of the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract to show the basis trends [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Included charts of various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc., to show the spread trends [22][23]. - **Fund Positioning**: Included charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds to show the fund positioning trends [25][27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included charts of the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate to show the growth situation of US soybeans [30][31]. - **Weather Conditions**: Mentioned that La Nina may occur from October 2025 to January, and included charts related to El Nino outlook, La Nina probability, and the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [33][36][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Included charts of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year to show the export situation of US soybeans [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Included charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China to show China's oilseed import situation [53][54]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Included charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China to show the crushing situation of Chinese oil mills [55][56]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China to show the oilseed inventory situation [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills to show the protein meal inventory situation [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Included charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast to show the protein meal crushing profit situation [64][65]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Included charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal to show the demand situation of soybean meal [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: Included charts of the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers to show the breeding profit situation [69][70].

Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/08/16 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished products have slightly corrected. The real estate industry continues to be in a downturn, and the demand outlook remains pessimistic. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows signs of recovery, with production basically unchanged and the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to being dominated by supply and demand. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of terminal demand repair and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Points Summary - **Cost Side**: The profit of hot-rolled coil blast furnaces is 154 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The spot price is about 11 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a moderately high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.0% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the pig iron output has remained above 2.4 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 85,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 5.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 1.5%. The demand has increased significantly, with the demand for medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils performing well, while the demand for cold-rolled coils remains weak [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.5747 million tons, with a slight inventory accumulation but a significantly slower growth rate [10] 2. Trading Strategy Suggestion - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13] 3. Other Sections - The report also includes various charts related to the hot-rolled coil market, such as spot and futures prices, regional price differences, basis, profit, inventory, and cost, as well as data on related products like cold-rolled coils, coated plates, and raw materials such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel [17][56][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stainless - steel price shows a range - bound oscillatory trend, and market sentiment is easily affected by policy factors. Considering the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that the spot prices of 304 hot - and cold - rolled stainless steel will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12][13]. - The market trading atmosphere was generally weak this week. Only at the beginning of the week, driven by a short - term rise in futures prices, did market inquiries and trading show a slight improvement. As the market trend oscillated downward, the market's wait - and - see sentiment significantly increased, and the procurement pace of traders and downstream industries slowed down notably. High - priced resources were particularly difficult to sell [12][13]. - On the supply side, leading steel mills continued to use the goods - distribution model to regulate market supply, effectively avoiding the impact of concentrated arrivals on the market. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand. The actual steel demand in major downstream industries such as building decoration and home appliance manufacturing is relatively weak. Most end - users maintain a cautious procurement strategy, with no signs of concentrated restocking or inventory hoarding, and a strong resistance to high - priced resources. Market demand shows no obvious signs of improvement [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Futures and Spot Market**: On August 15th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][30][33]. - **Demand**: From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][44][47]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][55][58]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [12][66]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi on August 15th was 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about 210 yuan lower than the main contract (-7), and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 110 yuan lower than the main contract (+3). The market position was 245,091 lots, a month - on - month increase of 3.91% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 75 (-10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 135 (-25) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48% [12][30]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][33]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [36]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [39]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40% [12][44]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][47]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In July, the automobile sales volume was 2.5934 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66% [50]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week [12][55]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][58]. 3.6. Cost Side - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the quoted price for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 10.9516 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.98% [63]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [66]. - This week, the quoted price for chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, the same as last week. The quoted price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,000 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In July, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 801,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.38% [69]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 665 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of - 4.83%. As downstream consumption sentiment warms up, the situation of steel mills has improved [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated. In terms of supply, the slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand continued to limit import supplements. Yunnan faced intensified raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi had a broken scrap - tin supply chain. In terms of demand, it was the off - season, with traditional consumption areas weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, it had limited impact on overall demand. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly. Overall, short - term supply was tight and demand was weak, but as Myanmar's resumption of production advanced, tin prices were expected to fluctuate. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices was 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin prices was 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand restricted imports. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41%. The mineral exploitation license in the Wa State of Myanmar had been approved, and significant recovery of tin ore supply was expected in the fourth quarter [12] - **Supply Side**: Yunnan was constrained by raw - material shortages, with smelters' tin ore inventories generally less than 30 days. High competition for procurement led to high processing costs for low - grade ores, and rising power costs dampened production willingness. Some manufacturers planned maintenance. Jiangxi faced a broken scrap - tin supply chain, with the secondary material circulation volume down over 30% year - on - year, restricting refined production capacity. In July 2025, refined tin output was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.95% [12] - **Demand Side**: Off - season consumption was poor. Downstream factories' orders were low, and they were cautious about restocking tin raw materials. In different fields, photovoltaic tin - bar orders in East China declined after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, and the production schedule of home - appliance enterprises in July decreased significantly. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, and the market was wait - and - see. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry was relatively stable [12] - **Summary**: Short - term supply was tight, demand was weak, and tin prices were expected to fluctuate, with domestic tin prices in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and LME tin prices in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market No other content except for the source information and some data charts is provided, so no further summary can be made. 3. Cost Side - Tin ore supply was tight in the short term, and processing fees remained low [26] 4. Supply Side - The report presents multiple charts related to domestic refined tin production, recycled tin production, production and operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi, export and import profits, domestic and Indonesian import and export volumes, etc., but no additional written summary content is provided. 5. Demand Side - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45] - **PC and Smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption remained sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units in 2025. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated consumer electronics growth, but the demand recovery was limited [48][51] - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [54] - **Home Appliance**: The first five months saw a near - 100% year - on - year increase in photovoltaic installation due to the installation rush, but the actual impact was less than expected [61] - **Other Fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while PVC production increased slightly in the first half of the year [64] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2023 to June 2025, including refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices due to significant price drops suppressing supply and the current bottom - building stage. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices may have risen too much and need to consolidate through oscillations. There is a risk of prices rising and then falling back [11]. - The market logic for bulls is the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year. The main reason for bears is the dull demand reality and the expected decline in demand due to the US tariff - increasing policy [13]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and decrease processing profit. The maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the 20250704 monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a huge impact and was a significant macro - bullish factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price increase in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices, but in the short term, beware of the risk of prices rising and then falling back. After the sharp decline on August 2, 2025, the outlook for rubber prices is not pessimistic [11]. - The key points of rubber RU: prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. Pay attention to the overall rise - fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies in the short term. The market logic for bulls and bears is different, and it is recommended to focus on the long - RU2601 and short - RU2511 spread trading strategy [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [26]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, etc. are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [42]. - Black commodities and rubber follow a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [45]. 3.4 Cost Side - The general view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [53]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, and vice versa [53]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate data of tire factories shows that the full - steel tire operating rate is 63.09% (2.09%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but is expected to decline slightly in the future [63][66]. 3.6 Supply Side - Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are still significant differences in the mid - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase in production. There are also market expectations of a small - scale rubber purchasing and storage plan [13]. - In May 2025, rubber production and export data showed different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions [104][105].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].

铜周报 2025/08/16 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 波动下降，等待进一步驱动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比持平，冷料供应边际平稳。消息面，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，埃尔特尼恩 特（EI Teniente）铜矿的冶炼厂已经重启运行。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.4至8.6万吨，LME库存微增至15.6万吨，COMEX库存增加0.3至24.2万吨。上 海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货180元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水93.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年7月我国未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，环比增加 1.6万吨，同比增加9.6%，1-7月累计进口量为3 ...