1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all experiencing this pattern [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long - side seller strategy and a bull spread strategy for call options; for index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of combining long synthetic futures with short futures can also be constructed [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market Overview - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,968.84, up 3.72 points or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 829.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 58 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,525.02, down 79.04 points or 0.58%, with a trading volume of 1,215.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.2 billion yuan; other indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed different trends [4] - **ETF Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading volume changes of various option - underlying ETFs are different. For example, the SSE 50ETF closed at 3.105, down 0.003 or 0.10%, with a trading volume of 9.1147 million shares, an increase of 9.0623 million shares, and a trading volume of 2.833 billion yuan, an increase of 1.204 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Option Factor Analysis - **Volume and Position PCR**: The volume and position PCR of different option varieties show different trends. For example, the volume PCR of the SSE 50ETF is 0.97, a decrease of 0.01, and the position PCR is 0.90, a decrease of 0.04 [6] - **Pressure and Support Points**: From the perspective of the strike prices of the maximum positions of call and put options, the pressure and support points of different option - underlying assets are determined. For example, the pressure point of the SSE 50ETF is 3.10, and the support point is 3.00 [8] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of different option varieties also shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50ETF is 13.71%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.75%, a decrease of 0.13% [11] 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Market Segmentation**: The financial option market is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board. Each board includes different option varieties [13] - **Option Strategies**: For different option varieties, corresponding strategies are proposed, including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long - side covered call strategies. For example, for the SSE 50ETF, a partial neutral seller strategy can be constructed to obtain time - value income [14]

农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2603 | 4,201 | 36 | 0.86 | 1.28 | -0.96 | 5.04 | -0.05 | | 豆二 | B2602 | 3,800 | 21 | 0.56 | 1.49 | 0.89 | 3.23 | -0.32 | | 豆粕 | M2603 | 3,080 | 8 | 0.26 | 17.49 | 5.12 | 56.36 | -2.84 | | 菜籽粕 | RM2603 | 2,437 | -18 | -0.73 | 0.71 | -0.06 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Energy - chemical sectors are divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubbers, polyesters, alkalis, and others[9]. - Strategies focus on constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered - call strategies to enhance returns[3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: The SC2602 contract's latest price is 432, down 6 (-1.46%), with a trading volume of 5.20 million lots (down 1.41 million lots) and an open interest of 2.96 million lots (down 0.08 million lots)[4]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The PG2602 contract's latest price is 4,132, up 40 (0.98%), with a trading volume of 8.66 million lots (up 1.37 million lots) and an open interest of 5.94 million lots (down 0.32 million lots)[4]. - **Methanol**: The MA2602 contract's latest price is 2,207, up 21 (0.96%), with a trading volume of 13.53 million lots (up 3.48 million lots) and an open interest of 4.46 million lots (down 0.95 million lots)[4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG2602 contract's latest price is 3,649, down 57 (-1.54%), with a trading volume of 0.89 million lots (up 0.32 million lots) and an open interest of 1.33 million lots (up 0.15 million lots)[4]. - **Polypropylene**: The PP2602 contract's latest price is 6,231, up 40 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 1.42 million lots (down 0.31 million lots) and an open interest of 3.47 million lots (down 0.29 million lots)[4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The V2602 contract's latest price is 4,539, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 2.37 million lots (up 1.00 million lots) and an open interest of 5.46 million lots (up 0.14 million lots)[4]. - **Plastic**: The L2602 contract's latest price is 6,299, down 1 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 1.93 million lots (up 0.56 million lots) and an open interest of 3.51 million lots (down 0.92 million lots)[4]. - **Styrene**: The EB2602 contract's latest price is 6,791, up 12 (0.18%), with a trading volume of 30.05 million lots (down 2.76 million lots) and an open interest of 31.13 million lots (down 0.88 million lots)[4]. - **Rubber**: The RU2605 contract's latest price is 15,605, down 75 (-0.48%), with a trading volume of 21.78 million lots (down 4.24 million lots) and an open interest of 16.88 million lots (down 0.68 million lots)[4]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR2602 contract's latest price is 11,520, down 30 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 9.77 million lots (down 2.36 million lots) and an open interest of 4.13 million lots (down 0.83 million lots)[4]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX2603 contract's latest price is 7,260, down 54 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 25.77 million lots (down 7.48 million lots) and an open interest of 22.95 million lots (down 1.69 million lots)[4]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: The TA2602 contract's latest price is 5,084, down 38 (-0.74%), with a trading volume of 7.04 million lots (down 2.55 million lots) and an open interest of 5.58 million lots (down 0.41 million lots)[4]. - **Short - Fiber**: The PF2602 contract's latest price is 6,514, down 50 (-0.76%), with a trading volume of 16.58 million lots (down 0.74 million lots) and an open interest of 13.20 million lots (down 2.12 million lots)[4]. - **Bottle Chips**: The PR2602 contract's latest price is 6,006, down 32 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 1.09 million lots (up 0.51 million lots) and an open interest of 0.69 million lots (down 0.26 million lots)[4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The SH2602 contract's latest price is 2,164, down 14 (-0.64%), with a trading volume of 4.01 million lots (down 1.65 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.36 million lots)[4]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA2602 contract's latest price is 1,151, down 2 (-0.17%), with a trading volume of 2.04 million lots (down 0.58 million lots) and an open interest of 2.06 million lots (down 0.42 million lots)[4]. - **Urea**: The UR2602 contract's latest price is 1,670, down 7 (-0.42%), with a trading volume of 0.69 million lots (down 0.27 million lots) and an open interest of 1.47 million lots (down 0.23 million lots)[4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Crude Oil**: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.02), and open interest PCR is 0.64 (down 0.03)[5]. - **LPG**: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.68 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Methanol**: Volume PCR is 0.34 (up 0.01), and open interest PCR is 0.62 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Volume PCR is 0.38 (up 0.12), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (up 0.02)[5]. - **Polypropylene**: Volume PCR is 0.28 (down 0.09), and open interest PCR is 0.60 (down 0.02)[5]. - **PVC**: Volume PCR is 0.34 (down 0.14), and open interest PCR is 0.28 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Plastic**: Volume PCR is 0.39 (down 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Styrene**: Volume PCR is 0.32 (down 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.44 (unchanged)[5]. - **Rubber**: Volume PCR is 0.30 (up 0.10), and open interest PCR is 0.37 (unchanged)[5]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volume PCR is 0.47 (up 0.03), and open interest PCR is 0.80 (down 0.03)[5]. - **Para - Xylene**: Volume PCR is 0.73 (down 0.34), and open interest PCR is 1.93 (up 0.07)[5]. - **PTA**: Volume PCR is 0.76 (up 0.13), and open interest PCR is 1.06 (up 0.09)[5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Volume PCR is 0.58 (up 0.04), and open interest PCR is 1.02 (unchanged)[5]. - **Bottle Chips**: Volume PCR is 0.88 (down 0.39), and open interest PCR is 1.30 (down 0.01)[5]. - **Caustic Soda**: Volume PCR is 0.38 (down 0.04), and open interest PCR is 0.46 (down 0.05)[5]. - **Soda Ash**: Volume PCR is 0.51 (down 0.07), and open interest PCR is 0.34 (down 0.02)[5]. - **Urea**: Volume PCR is 0.45 (up 0.06), and open interest PCR is 0.81 (unchanged)[5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Crude Oil**: Pressure point is 540, support point is 440[6]. - **LPG**: Pressure point is 4,200, support point is 4,000[6]. - **Methanol**: Pressure point is 2,300, support point is 2,100[6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pressure point is 4,000, support point is 3,500[6]. - **Polypropylene**: Pressure point is 6,500, support point is 6,200[6]. - **PVC**: Pressure point is 5,000, support point is 4,300[6]. - **Plastic**: Pressure point is 6,600, support point is 6,200[6]. - **Styrene**: Pressure point is 7,000, support point is 6,300[6]. - **Rubber**: Pressure point is 17,000, support point is 14,000[6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Pressure point is 12,600, support point is 11,000[6]. - **Para - Xylene**: Pressure point is 7,600, support point is 5,800[6]. - **PTA**: Pressure point is 5,300, support point is 4,800[6]. - **Short - Fiber**: Pressure point is 7,200, support point is 6,100[6]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pressure point is 6,400, support point is 5,300[6]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pressure point is 2,400, support point is 2,080[6]. - **Soda Ash**: Pressure point is 1,200, support point is 1,100[6]. - **Urea**: Pressure point is 1,700, support point is 1,640[6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Crude Oil**: At - the - money implied volatility is 27.75%, weighted implied volatility is 34.02% (up 1.79%), annual average is 31.44%, call implied volatility is 37.40%, put implied volatility is 28.22%, HISV20 is 26.32%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.43[7]. - **LPG**: At - the - money implied volatility is 21.17%, weighted implied volatility is 25.21% (up 1.37%), annual average is 22.22%, call implied volatility is 26.41%, put implied volatility is 21.49%, HISV20 is 18.92%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.25[7]. - **Methanol**: At - the - money implied volatility is 20.195%, weighted implied volatility is 24.65% (down 1.03%), annual average is 20.48%, call implied volatility is 26.16%, put implied volatility is 20.21%, HISV20 is 18.50%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.70[7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: At - the - money implied volatility is 15.23%, weighted implied volatility is 21.72% (down 1.60%), annual average is 15.97%, call implied volatility is 23.89%, put implied volatility is 15.99%, HISV20 is 16.78%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.55[7]. - **Polypropylene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 10.705%, weighted implied volatility is 21.30% (up 3.98%), annual average is 12.53%, call implied volatility is 23.68%, put implied volatility is 12.86%, HISV20 is 12.44%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.73[7]. - **PVC**: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.475%, weighted implied volatility is 24.68% (up 0.52%), annual average is 19.06%, call implied volatility is 26.95%, put implied volatility is 17.98%, HISV20 is 16.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 1.17[7]. - **Plastic**: At - the - money implied volatility is 13.345%, weighted implied volatility is 17.71% (down 2.13%), annual average is 13.27%, call implied volatility is 18.82%, put implied volatility is 14.86%, HISV20 is 13.27%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.07[7]. - **Styrene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 19.3%, weighted implied volatility is 23.95% (down 2.05%), annual average is 21.03%, call implied volatility is 24.96%, put implied volatility is 20.77%, HISV20 is 18.73%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.57[7]. - **Rubber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.62%, weighted implied volatility is 22.07% (up 0.77%), annual average is 22.84%, call implied volatility is 23.14%, put implied volatility is 18.45%, HISV20 is 18.41%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 0.21[7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 24.805%, weighted implied volatility is 28.06% (down 1.22%), annual average is 27.11%, call implied volatility is 29.07%, put implied volatility is 25.92%, HISV20 is 22.31%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 2.50[7]. - **Para - Xylene**: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.64%, weighted implied volatility is 25.42% (down 4.04%), annual average is 21.70%, call implied volatility is 27.78%, put implied volatility is 22.18%, HISV20 is 16.77%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 5.87[7]. - **PTA**: At - the - money implied volatility is 22.11%, weighted implied volatility is 24.96% (down 5.56%), annual average is 20.29%, call implied volatility is 27.77%, put implied volatility is 21.25%, HISV20 is 14.35%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 7.76[7]. - **Short - Fiber**: At - the - money implied volatility is 18.185%, weighted implied volatility is 21.88% (down 2.37%), annual average is 17.61%, call implied volatility is 23.08%, put implied volatility is 19.78%, HISV20 is 13.57%, and the implied - historical volatility difference is 4.62[7]. - **Bottle Chips**: At - the - money implied volatility is 17.42%, weighted implied volatility is 23.18% (down 3.08%),

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals with a bullish upward trend, construct a neutral volatility strategy for sellers; for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for precious metals with a rebound, construct a bull spread combination strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 98,240, with a price increase of 820 and a price change rate of 0.84% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: The report presents the volume - to - open - interest PCR of various metal options, which is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.42, with a change of - 0.13, and the open - interest PCR is 0.67, with a change of - 0.02 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interests of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper options is 110,000, and the support level is 94,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various metal options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 27.36%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.51%, with a change of - 0.18% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper market shows a bullish upward trend with support below. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for volatility strategies and a spot hedging strategy for spot positions [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is in a short - term retracement after a bullish rise. It is recommended to construct a call option bull spread combination strategy for directional strategies and a short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility strategies [9]. - **Other non - ferrous metals**: Similar analyses and strategy recommendations are provided for zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate options, including fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, option factor research, and corresponding option strategies [9][10][11]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)**: The silver market shows large - amplitude fluctuations in a bullish trend. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy for volatility strategies and a spot hedging strategy for spot positions [12]. - **Black Series**: - **Rebar**: The rebar market shows a weak oscillatory retracement with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a short - bearish call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility strategies and a spot covered - call strategy for spot positions [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a bullish oscillatory trend with support below and pressure above. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy for volatility strategies and a long - collar strategy for spot positions [13]. - **Other black series**: Similar analyses and strategy recommendations are provided for ferroalloys, industrial silicon, and glass options [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the re - inflow of institutional allocation funds at the beginning of the year and policy support suggest a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but with uncertain economic recovery momentum, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, they may experience a short - term correction, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to be in a high - level or upward - trending state, but some may face short - term adjustments [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors [30][33]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks, such as rubber being neutral, crude oil having an upward potential for heavy oil products, etc. [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the price trends of different products are diverse. For example, pig prices may weaken in the medium - term, while egg prices may rise first and then fall [77][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Events include the US raid on Venezuela, a nuclear fusion conference, a company's IPO application, and changes in shareholding ratios [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term strategy of buying on dips due to institutional funds and policy support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Contract prices of TL, T, TF, and TS decreased. PMI data improved, and there were regulations on fund sales fees. The central bank had a net injection of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to economic improvement expectations, but with uncertain economic recovery, it's expected to be weak and volatile in Q1 [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign prices of gold and silver decreased. The Fed's policy may turn tight, and silver's lease rate is high [8]. - **Strategy**: A short - term correction may occur, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Peripheral copper prices fluctuated, LME and domestic inventories changed, and Chile's copper production decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to remain high with a slowdown in the upward trend, supported by supply and geopolitical factors [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum prices were strong, and domestic inventories and spot prices changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to external factors and supply - side support [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign zinc prices changed, and inventories and basis data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may correct in the short - term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign lead prices decreased, and inventories and basis data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated, and cost and supply - related data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decreased, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices of carbonate lithium changed, and import prices of lithium concentrate increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Although the first - quarter demand is weak, the future supply - demand is expected to improve. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index prices increased, and basis, inventory, and ore prices were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to short if there are no production cuts [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel futures prices increased, and spot prices and inventory data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices increased, and inventory and trading volume data were provided [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong and oscillate due to cost and supply factors [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory and spot price data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices and basis data were provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass futures prices were flat, and soda ash futures prices decreased. Inventory and trading data were provided [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices may rise in the short - term, and it's recommended to short soda ash at high prices in the 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton range [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. Spot prices and basis data were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment may continue to be bullish, but attention should be paid to risks. The future market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices decreased, and polysilicon prices increased slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak and oscillate. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [47][50]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and partially close the hedging position [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil futures prices decreased, and inventory data were provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The value of heavy oil products is expected to rise, and the crack spread of asphalt or fuel oil may increase [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices of methanol changed [55]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips due to low valuation and improved future outlook [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to take profit at high prices due to expected fundamental negatives [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Prices, basis, and supply - demand data of pure benzene and styrene were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before Q1 [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC futures prices decreased, and cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to the supply - demand imbalance [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation needs improvement, and it's expected to compress valuation without further production cuts [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: PTA may enter a inventory accumulation period after the Spring Festival. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [66][67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory before the maintenance season. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE futures and spot prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP futures prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out after the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices decreased in most areas, and demand varied in the north and south [76]. - **Strategy**: Short - term pig prices may be strong, but they may weaken in the medium - term. It's recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to far - month contract support [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable in most areas, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall [78]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to limited price increase and decrease space [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [80]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate due to supply - demand factors [81]. Oils - **Market Information**: Futures prices of three major oils were weak and oscillated, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Oil prices are close to the bottom range due to weak current fundamentals but optimistic expectations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and production data of India and Thailand were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton futures prices increased slightly, and supply - demand, inventory, and export data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to wait for a correction and then go long on cotton [88].

黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 黑色建材日报 2026-01-05 钢材 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3122 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.38%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 1212 吨。主力合约持仓量为 150.5284 万手，环比减少 55522 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3270 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. Although short - term downside risks remain, due to geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long on dips [3]. - Urea: The current domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - Rubber: The current situation calls for a neutral approach and temporary observation. Partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [14]. - PVC: Fundamentally, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, supply reduction is limited, production is at a historical high, and domestic demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, strong sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, the strategy is to go short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. Before the first quarter of next year, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - Polyethylene: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - induced decline to production mismatch. Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - Polypropylene: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - PX: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern. In the short - term, there is a large expected component in the market, so beware of correction risks. In the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [27]. - PTA: In the short - term, supply will maintain high - level maintenance. Demand for polyester and chemical fibers is under pressure, and due to the off - season, the load will gradually decline. After short - term inventory depletion, PTA will enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage. In the short - term, beware of corrections due to over - expectation, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall load is still relatively high. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue, and in the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. Valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Detailed Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Futures Prices: As of the last trading day of the holidays, the INE main crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% decline, at 432.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 37.00 yuan/ton (1.49%) at 2447.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton (2.17%) at 2935.00 yuan/ton [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels (15.07% MoM), diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels (0.81% MoM), fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels (5.60% MoM), naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels (15.18% MoM), aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels (4.43% MoM), and the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels (1.00% MoM) [1]. Methanol - Spot Price Changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Spot Price Changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 59 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Price: The main contract changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 1749 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - Price Movement: Rubber prices were in a sideways consolidation. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand [10][11]. - Tire Industry: As of December 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, down 2.46 ppts from last week and 0.02 ppts from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, up 0.98 ppts from last week but down 5.05 ppts from the same period last year. Tire inventories were under high pressure [12]. - Inventory: As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 million tons, a 2.5% increase MoM. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons (3.4% increase), and that of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons (1% increase). The inventory in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons [12]. - Spot Prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14650 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1855 (- 5) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1860 (0) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8350 (0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11000 (0) yuan [13]. PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The PVC05 contract fell 5 yuan to 4805 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 305 (+5) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 134 (- 1) yuan/ton [15]. - Cost and Supply: The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 745 (0) dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 703 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase MoM; the calcium carbide method was 78.4% (0.1% decrease), and the ethylene method was 79.3% (5% increase) [15]. - Demand and Inventory: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease MoM. Factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Price and Basis: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active contract was 5463 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 123 yuan/ton (24 - yuan expansion). The spot price of styrene rose 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 6791 yuan/ton, and the basis was 109 yuan/ton (40 - yuan strengthening) [18]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.05 million tons to 13.88 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase. The operating rate of PS was 59.40% (4.90% increase), EPS was 52.56% (0.76% increase), and ABS was 69.40% (0.70% decrease) [18]. - Profit: The BZN spread was 133.37 yuan/ton (4 - yuan decrease), and the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 76.1 yuan/ton (40 - yuan increase) [18]. Polyethylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 6472 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 6375 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (1 - yuan weakening) [21]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 82.27%, a 0.82% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.79 million tons to 37.07 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 2.76 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease MoM. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton (2 - yuan narrowing) [21]. Polypropylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 6348 yuan/ton, the spot price was unchanged at 6275 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 73 yuan/ton (27 - yuan weakening) [23]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 75.65%, a 1.76% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.45 million tons to 53.33 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.24%, a 0.56% decrease MoM. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton (16 - yuan narrowing) [23][24]. PX - Futures and Spot Prices: The PX03 contract fell 56 yuan to 7260 yuan, PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 893 dollars, and the basis was - 25 yuan (+42). The 3 - 5 spread was - 6 yuan (+10) [26]. - Load and Inventory: China's PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. In December, South Korea exported 28.3 million tons of PX to China, a 0.8 - million - ton increase YoY. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease MoM [26]. - Valuation and Cost: PXN was 355 dollars (- 1), South Korea's PX - MX was 143 dollars (- 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 89 dollars (+3) [26]. PTA - Futures and Spot Prices: The PTA05 contract fell 34 yuan to 5110 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 5095 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan (- 18) [29]. - Load and Inventory: The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. On December 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease [29]. - Valuation and Cost: The spot processing fee of PTA rose 4 yuan to 349 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 347 yuan [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Prices: The EG05 contract fell 44 yuan to 3803 yuan, the East China spot price fell 13 yuan to 3681 yuan, the basis was - 141 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan (- 9) [31]. - Supply and Demand: The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 10.7 million tons, and the East China departure on December 30 was 1.1 million tons. The port inventory was 73 million tons, a 1.4 - million - ton increase [31]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit was - 829 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 925 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 188 yuan. The cost of ethylene was flat at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 540 yuan [31].

从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2026-01-05 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 元旦节前郑州白糖期货价格窄幅震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5251 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌元/吨，或 0.13%。现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5300-5400 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 10 元/吨；云南制 糖集团新糖报价 5170-5240 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5780-5810 元/吨，报价较上个交易日下跌 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 49 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据印度全国合作糖厂联合会有限公司(NFCSF)发布的数据显示，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印度糖厂已压 榨甘蔗 1.33 亿吨，同比增加 0.23 亿吨。本榨季截至目前共有 499 家糖厂开榨。截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日 食糖产量达 1183 万吨，同比增加 227 ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-05 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 内盘截至节前最后一个交易日，沪金跌 0.85 %，报 977.56 元/克，沪银跌 4.27 %，报 17074.00 元/千克；外盘截至 1 月 2 日，COMEX 金报 4341.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 72.27 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.19%，美元指数报 98.41 ； 贵金属，尤其是白银价格在加速上涨阶段已经充分体现了哈塞特或沃什就任的货币政策预期。 而在明年一季度，仍在鲍威尔领导下的美联储，其宽松步伐将会显著放缓。12 月份联储议息 会议宣布进行降息和扩表的"双宽操作"，但点阵图所显示的 2026 年降息预期仅为一次，当 前联储已在过去三次议息会议中进行连续的降息操作，在一月份进一步宽松的可能性较小。我 们预计，一季度整体的联储货币政策表态将会边际转紧。而这对于贵金属价格形成宏观层面的 利空因素。而在现货数据方面，截至 1 月 4 日，白银一月期隐含 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend, influenced by factors such as loose financial market liquidity in the US, mild policy stimulus in China, geopolitical disturbances, tight mine - end supply, and tariff expectations. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner, driven by high - priced precious metals and copper, relatively low overseas aluminum inventories, and supply - side disturbances. The expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the market returns to industrial reality, with rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand [8] - Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] - For lithium carbonate, short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] - Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] - Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: On the first trading day of 2026, LME copper prices rose first and then fell, closing at 12,460 dollars/ton, down 0.3% from before the domestic holiday. SHFE copper main contract closed at 98,240 yuan/ton before the holiday. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 145,325 tons, and the cash/3M premium strengthened. Domestic pre - holiday SHFE weekly inventory increased by 34,000 tons to 145,000 tons, and daily warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons to 82,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong regions narrowed, and the import loss of SHFE copper spot decreased to 800 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,300 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. Chile's copper production in November decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons [1] - **Strategy View**: With loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical disturbances, copper prices are expected to remain high but with a slowdown in the upward trend. The expected trading range for the SHFE copper main contract is 97,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,200 - 12,800 dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: During the New Year's Day holiday, LME aluminum prices remained strong, closing at 3,021 dollars/ton, up 0.8%. SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 22,925 yuan/ton before the holiday. The pre - holiday weighted contract position of SHFE aluminum decreased by 7,000 to 666,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 82,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 210 yuan/ton, and the transaction was weak. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 to 509,000 tons, and the cash/3M discount narrowed to 24.9 dollars/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Affected by overseas geopolitical factors, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. With high aluminum prices suppressing downstream production, but low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances, the expected trading range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,980 - 3,050 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: Last Wednesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.86% at 17,356 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 86,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 17,125 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME lead fell 1.02% to 1,994 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 76,800 tons. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged at 17,400 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: With rising lead ore inventory, high primary lead production, and weakening downstream demand, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.43% at 23,305 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 195,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 23,300 yuan/ton. During the holiday, LME zinc rose slightly by 0.34% to 3,127 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 106,300 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 8,400 tons. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3,200 tons to 108,800 tons [9] - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices may give back some gains in the short term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the smelting profit has stabilized [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 31, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 322,920 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi maintained a high - level operation, but there were problems such as low processing fees and shortage of raw materials. In terms of demand, although the downstream consumer electronics entered the off - season, the tin solder production and operation rate were stable supported by emerging industries. The spot market demand was weak, and the inventory increased for three consecutive weeks before decreasing [11] - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate according to market sentiment in the short term. With weak demand and expected supply improvement, but low downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, SHFE nickel main contract closed at 132,850 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable. The price of nickel pig iron continued to rise [13] - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have reached the bottom in the short term, affected by Indonesia's policy. With large excess pressure, it is recommended to wait and see. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,000 - 16,500 dollars/ton [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On December 31, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 116,867 yuan, up 0.41% from the previous working day and down 3.35% for the week. The SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate CIF price increased by 2.65% for the week [17] - **Strategy View**: Short - term capital games will dominate the market. With positive expectations for future supply and demand but a weak first - quarter demand, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The expected trading range for the GZEE lithium carbonate main contract is 117,500 - 124,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 31, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.16% to 2,724 yuan/ton, and the single - side trading position decreased by 51,400 lots. The Shandong spot price was 2,600 yuan/ton, at a discount of 178 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was 308 dollars/ton, and the import loss was 83 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 900 tons to 156,900 tons. The CIF price of Guinea and Australia ore remained unchanged [20] - **Strategy View**: Alumina prices are recommended to wait and see in the short term. With the recovery of ore transportation and over - capacity in the smelting end, there are difficulties in continuous rebound. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday afternoon, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,125 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The single - side position increased by 18,307 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices such as high - nickel pig iron rose, and the futures inventory decreased. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [23] - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. With rising raw material prices and inventory reduction, it is recommended to consider going long at low prices while paying attention to policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Before the New Year's Day holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy strengthened. The main AD2603 contract closed up 1.77% at 21,855 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased, and the trading volume decreased but remained at a relatively high level. The inventory of the SHFE increased, the domestic main market inventory decreased, and the factory inventory increased [26] - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term, supported by strong cost and supply - side disturbances, but with average demand [26]