Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - The report provides option strategies and suggestions for selected varieties in each sector, covering underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - It is recommended to construct option - combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy and chemical futures are presented, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 437, down 2 with a decline rate of - 0.36%, trading volume of 6.61 million lots (down 0.71 million lots), and open interest of 3.04 million lots (down 0.18 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.56 (down 0.23), and the open interest PCR is 0.66 (down 0.02) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum call and put option open interests. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 435 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.515%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.23% (up 1.59%) [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The US Department of Energy delayed data release due to the Christmas holiday. Military interceptions in Venezuela and production changes in Kazakhstan and the Middle East affected the market. The price showed a weak trend [7]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 435 [7]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **LPG**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply had no significant increase, and chemical demand supported the price. The price showed a volatile and downward trend [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a weak trend with limited rebound [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2100 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a continuous weak trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.3 Olefin - Related Options - **PVC**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased overall, and the price showed a weak rebound after a continuous decline [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weak trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was at a medium level, and the price showed a warming - up trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall trend. The pressure level was 17000, and the support level was 14000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed analysis and strategy recommendations in the above - mentioned format were found. 3.5.5 Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Polyester load decreased, and PTA inventory decreased. The price showed a strong short - term rebound [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low level, the open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong market. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bull - spread call option strategy; construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali - Related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate increased, and the price showed a weak and stable trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2040 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased, and the price showed a low - level volatile trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production decreased, and the price showed a short - term weak trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated, OPEC's production increase is minimal. As the OPEC supply has not yet increased significantly, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market will enter a short - term consolidation. The inventory in ports will further decline due to reverse flow and trans - shipment. However, the import volume will remain high, and the olefin plants in ports have maintenance plans, so the port pressure still exists. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure, with the price expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have boosted short - term demand, and the supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited, and it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand prospects, while bears are pessimistic because of weak demand. Currently, it is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [9][10]. - The PVC market has low valuation pressure in the short term, but the supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and although the Indian BIS policy has been revoked and there is no expected anti - dumping tax, there is still off - season pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. - The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. - The PTA supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. - The ethylene glycol industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 0.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.11% increase, at 436.10 yuan/barrel. The US EIA weekly data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.41 million barrels to 424.82 million barrels, a 0.10% increase; the SPR increased by 0.80 million barrels to 412.97 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 2.86 million barrels to 228.49 million barrels, a 1.27% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 118.70 million barrels, a 0.17% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.85 million barrels to 22.99 million barrels, a 3.85% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.32 million barrels to 44.89 million barrels, a 3.02% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 58 yuan/ton, at 2219 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was - 26 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory will decline, but there is still pressure. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals face some pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Shandong changed by - 20 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 43 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 8 yuan/ton, at 1743 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand balance is improving. With export policy and cost support, the downside space is limited. It is advisable to consider buying at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The bullish view of natural rubber RU is based on limited production growth in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand in China. The bearish view is due to uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and the postponed EUDR. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than last week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than last week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 tons, a 2.5% increase [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach, wait and see, and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 257 (+75) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 133 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.2%, a 0.2% decrease; the calcium carbide method was 78.5%, a 0.8% increase; the ethylene method was 74.3%, a 2.3% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. The factory inventory was 30.6 tons (- 2.2), and the social inventory was 106 tons (+0.4) [11][13]. - **Strategy**: The valuation pressure is low in the short term, but the supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, it is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 5487 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 177 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan reduction. The spot price of styrene was 6850 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6781 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan increase; the basis was 69 yuan/ton, a 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.93 tons, a 0.46 - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.60%, a 1.67% decrease; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, a 3.80% decrease; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, a 1.96% decrease; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, a 0.47% increase [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is significant room for valuation repair. The cost - side pure benzene supply is still abundant, and the styrene production is increasing. The styrene port inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is in the off - season. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6461 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6365 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 96 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a 0.05% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 45.86 tons, a 2.92 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 3.25 tons, a 0.32 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a 0.45% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, a 3 - yuan reduction [19]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene has increased, and the inventory is expected to decline from a high level. It is advisable to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6321 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 46 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a 0.32% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 53.33 tons, a 0.45 - ton decrease; the trader inventory was 18.72 tons, a 1.11 - ton decrease; the port inventory was 6.87 tons, a 0.12 - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 140 yuan/ton, a 39 - yuan reduction [21]. - **Strategy**: The EIA monthly report predicts an increase in global oil inventories and a potential expansion of the supply surplus. The supply pressure will ease in the first half of 2026, and the demand is in a seasonal oscillation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 286 yuan, at 7270 yuan; the PX CFR decreased by 28 dollars, at 891 dollars; the basis was - 47 yuan (+56), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 26 yuan (- 26). The Chinese PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as shutdown and restart. In December, South Korea's PX exports to China increased. The inventory at the end of October increased [24]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased significantly, and both PX and PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand in the coming year. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices in the medium term while being aware of the callback risk [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 158 yuan, at 5122 yuan; the East China spot price decreased by 110 yuan, at 5065 yuan; the basis was - 63 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 110 yuan (- 20). The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some plants had operations such as restart and production reduction. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The social inventory on December 26 decreased. The spot processing fee and the disk processing fee increased [26][27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand will decline due to profit pressure and the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - building stage during the Spring Festival after short - term inventory reduction. The valuation has room to increase in the coming year, but attention should be paid to the callback risk in the short term. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the medium term [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 29 yuan, at 3817 yuan; the East China spot price increased by 21 yuan, at 3687 yuan; the basis was - 136 yuan (+16), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 71 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had operations such as load reduction and restart. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import forecast was 11.8 tons, and the port inventory increased by 1.4 tons. The profits of different production methods varied, and the cost of ethylene was stable while the price of coal decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The industry has a high overall load, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. Although the overseas unexpected maintenance has increased, the domestic reduction is insufficient. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and the valuation may need to be compressed without further domestic production cuts in the medium term [30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility selling strategy for sellers can be constructed as they tend to move upwards; for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable; for precious metals with a rebound, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper contract CU2602 is 96,060, with a decrease of 4,400 and a decline rate of 4.38% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.45, and the open interest PCR is 0.78 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets of various metal options are given. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 110,000, and the support point is 92,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of different metal options are presented. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 31.29% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, strategies such as a short - volatility seller option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a spot covered - call strategy are proposed [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Silver**: A neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. - **Black Series** - **Rebar**: A short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, a short - volatility strategy is recommended; for silicon iron, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [14]. - **Glass**: A bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly oscillating, by - products are oscillating, soft commodities like sugar are slightly oscillating, cotton is strongly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly consolidating with a bullish bias [2]. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2603) is 4,143, up 21 with a 0.51% increase, trading volume is 1.72 million lots (up 0.67 million lots), and open interest is 5.05 million lots (down 0.05 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open - Interest PCR**: Each option variety has different volume and open - interest PCR values and their changes, which reflect the sentiment and strength of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.41, up 0.06, and the open - interest PCR is 0.89, down 0.04 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of option factors, each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200, and the support level is 4000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of each option variety also varies. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.535, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.76, up 0.40 [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, China's soybean procurement and Brazilian soybean import costs have an impact. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Fundamentally, trading volume, delivery volume, and basis have changed. Option strategies involve constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentally, production has decreased and exports have increased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Fundamentally, downstream consumption is weak. The option strategy is to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **By - product Options** - **Pig**: Fundamentally, supply has decreased and demand is in the peak season. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: Fundamentally, supply is sufficient and demand is weak. Option strategies involve constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Fundamentally, cold - storage inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Fundamentally, inventory has decreased. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: Fundamentally, production in Thailand has decreased and domestic industrial inventory is increasing. Option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Fundamentally, China's cotton production has increased. Option strategies include constructing a bull - spread call option strategy, a neutral short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot [13]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn**: Fundamentally, the corn germ market is weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. - **Starch**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [309][311]. - **Log Options**: Option strategies are not detailed in the text, but related data on price trends, option factors, etc. are provided [328][330]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market, including the Shanghai Composite Index, large-cap blue-chip stocks, small and medium-cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, shows a high-level oscillating upward trend [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has declined to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy and a bull spread combination strategy for call options. For index options, it is suitable to construct a bullish seller strategy, a bull spread combination strategy for call options, and an arbitrage strategy between synthetic long futures with options and short futures [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,965.28, up 1.60 points or 0.04%, with a trading volume of 903.8 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,537.10, down 66.80 points or 0.49%, with a trading volume of 1,235.5 billion yuan [4]. - The SSE 50 Index closed at 3,034.63, down 10.77 points or 0.35%, with a trading volume of 117.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,639.37, down 17.87 points or 0.38%, with a trading volume of 482.6 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,430.61, down 28.22 points or 0.38%, with a trading volume of 390.4 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,594.16, down 11.37 points or 0.15%, with a trading volume of 466.9 billion yuan [4]. ETF Market Overview - The SSE 50 ETF closed at 3.109, down 0.011 or 0.35%, with a trading volume of 4.8702 million shares and a turnover of 1.519 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 300 ETF closed at 4.763, down 0.021 or 0.44%, with a trading volume of 8.5291 million shares and a turnover of 4.070 billion yuan [5]. - The SSE 500 ETF closed at 7.548, down 0.032 or 0.42%, with a trading volume of 3.3780 million shares and a turnover of 2.559 billion yuan [5]. - The Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.417, down 0.002 or 0.14%, with a trading volume of 25.7752 million shares and a turnover of 3.675 billion yuan [5]. - The E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF closed at 1.373, down 0.001 or 0.07%, with a trading volume of 6.8515 million shares and a turnover of 0.946 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 300 ETF closed at 4.838, down 0.022 or 0.45%, with a trading volume of 2.2579 million shares and a turnover of 1.095 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 500 ETF closed at 2.979, down 0.012 or 0.40%, with a trading volume of 1.0772 million shares and a turnover of 0.322 billion yuan [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 ETF closed at 3.470, down 0.015 or 0.43%, with a trading volume of 0.7215 million shares and a turnover of 0.251 billion yuan [5]. - The ChiNext ETF closed at 3.205, down 0.021 or 0.65%, with a trading volume of 9.5207 million shares and a turnover of 3.056 billion yuan [5]. Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.96, up 0.08, and the open interest PCR was 0.94, down 0.04 [6]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.89, up 0.22, and the open interest PCR was 0.92, down 0.04 [6]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.83, down 0.01, and the open interest PCR was 1.05, down 0.03 [6]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.56, up 0.02, and the open interest PCR was 0.79, down 0.02 [6]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.75, up 0.26, and the open interest PCR was 0.88, down 0.02 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.92, up 0.21, and the open interest PCR was 0.96, down 0.01 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the volume PCR was 1.04, up 0.25, and the open interest PCR was 1.07, up 0.03 [6]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the volume PCR was 2.34, up 0.91, and the open interest PCR was 1.55, up 0.19 [6]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the volume PCR was 0.86, up 0.05, and the open interest PCR was 1.07, down 0.05 [6]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the volume PCR was 0.52, up 0.08, and the open interest PCR was 0.69, unchanged [6]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the volume PCR was 0.54, up 0.03, and the open interest PCR was 0.71, unchanged [6]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the volume PCR was 0.66, up 0.02, and the open interest PCR was 0.98, unchanged [6]. Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the pressure level was 3.20, and the support level was 3.00 [8]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the pressure level was 4.80, and the support level was 4.70 [8]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the pressure level was 7.50, and the support level was 7.25 [8]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure level was 1.45, and the support level was 1.40 [8]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the pressure level was 1.50, and the support level was 1.30 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the pressure level was 4.90, and the support level was 4.80 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the pressure level was 3.00, and the support level was 2.90 [8]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the pressure level was 3.50, and the support level was 3.40 [8]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the pressure level was 3.20, and the support level was 3.10 [8]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the pressure level was 3,100, and the support level was 3,000 [8]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the pressure level was 4,700, and the support level was 4,600 [8]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the pressure level was 7,600, and the support level was 7,300 [8]. Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For the SSE 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 13.35%, the weighted implied volatility was 13.36%, down 0.27% [11]. - For the SSE 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 15.43%, the weighted implied volatility was 15.05%, down 0.12% [11]. - For the SSE 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 19.30%, the weighted implied volatility was 19.51%, up 0.15% [11]. - For the Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 27.51%, the weighted implied volatility was 27.14%, up 0.88% [11]. - For the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 27.37%, the weighted implied volatility was 28.03%, up 0.48% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 300 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 15.51%, the weighted implied volatility was 18.62%, up 1.73% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 500 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 19.41%, the weighted implied volatility was 19.95%, up 0.77% [11]. - For the Shenzhen 100 ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 19.83%, the weighted implied volatility was 21.21%, down 0.11% [11]. - For the ChiNext ETF option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 26.80%, the weighted implied volatility was 26.69%, up 0.40% [11]. - For the SSE 50 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 13.69%, the weighted implied volatility was 14.20%, down 0.36% [11]. - For the CSI 300 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 15.88%, the weighted implied volatility was 15.57%, down 0.04% [11]. - For the CSI 1000 index option, the at-the-money implied volatility was 20.07%, the weighted implied volatility was 20.23%, up 0.57% [11]. Strategy and Recommendations - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50 ETF)**: - The SSE 50 ETF showed a high-level oscillating and consolidating trend. - The implied volatility of the SSE 50 ETF option remained at a relatively low level. - The open interest PCR of the SSE 50 ETF option was around 1.00, indicating oscillation. - The pressure level was 3.20, and the support level was 3.00. - Strategies: Construct a neutral seller combination strategy; implement a covered call strategy by holding the SSE 50 ETF and selling call options [14]. - **Large-Cap Blue-Chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300 ETF)**: - The SSE 300 ETF showed a rebound after a decline. - The implied volatility of the SSE 300 ETF option remained at a relatively low level. - The open interest PCR of the SSE 300 ETF option was around 1.00, indicating a weak oscillation. - The pressure level was 4.80, and the support level was 4.70. - Strategies: Construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options; implement a covered call strategy by holding the SSE 300 ETF and selling call options [14]. - **Small and Medium-Cap Stocks Sector (SSE 500 ETF)**: - The SSE 500 ETF showed a rebound and then a decline. - The implied volatility of the SSE 500 ETF option remained below the historical average. - The open interest PCR of the SSE 500 ETF option was above 1.00, indicating an oscillating trend. - The pressure level was 7.50, and the support level was 7.00. - Strategies: Construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options; implement a covered call strategy by holding the SSE 500 ETF and selling call options [15]. - **Large and Medium-Sized Stocks Sector (Shenzhen 100 ETF)**: - The Shenzhen 100 ETF showed a bullish high-level oscillation and then a decline. - The implied volatility of the Shenzhen 100 ETF option fluctuated around the average level. - The open interest PCR of the Shenzhen 100 ETF option was above 1.00, indicating a bullish oscillating and declining trend. - The pressure level was 3.40, and the support level was 3.30. - Strategies: Construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options; implement a covered call strategy by holding the Shenzhen 100 ETF and selling call options [15]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF)**: - The ChiNext ETF showed a bullish high-level oscillation. - The implied volatility of the ChiNext ETF option remained at a relatively high level. - The open interest PCR of the ChiNext ETF option was above 1.00, indicating a strengthening trend. - The pressure level was 3.20, and the support level was 3.00. - Strategies: Construct a short volatility strategy; implement a covered call strategy by holding the ChiNext ETF and selling call options [16]. - **Small and Medium-Cap Stocks Sector (CSI 1000)**: - The CSI 1000 index showed a high-level decline and then an oscillation. - The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index option fluctuated below the average level. - The open interest PCR of the CSI 1000 index option was around 0.90, indicating a weak oscillating trend. - The pressure level was 7,400, and the support level was 7,000. - Strategies: Construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options and dynamically adjust the position to keep the delta negative [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are in an accelerated upward phase, but may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed "holding steady", yet this does not mark the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver [4] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down [4] - Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and not open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15666 - 18658 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Categories Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold dropped 4.00% to 975.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver dropped 8.74% to 17237.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4344.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 71.20 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.01 [2] - Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell and thought he should resign. The new Fed Chairman's candidate will be announced in January [2] Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. Although the current Fed officials only expect one 25bps interest - rate cut next year, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are focused on the new chairman's selection. Two Trump - camp members are likely candidates, and both support Trump's desired interest - rate cut policy. The Fed is likely to conduct more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price decreased by 4.64% to 4350.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 71.84% to 30.78 million lots, and open interest increased by 8.91% to 47.11 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price dropped by 3.21% to 4337.05 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's closing price fell by 0.90% to 1007.18 yuan/gram, trading volume rose by 56.72% to 50.22 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.15% to 33.76 million lots [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 10.08% to 71.64 dollars/ounce, open interest decreased by 1.19% to 15.29 million lots, and inventory dropped by 0.13% to 13969 tons; LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.40% to 74.64 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's closing price fell by 0.62% to 18205.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose by 70.96% to 493.06 million lots, and open interest decreased by 6.77% to 72.23 million lots [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 28.52 yuan/gram (126.53 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 29.13 yuan/gram (129.47 dollars/ounce) [53] - **Silver**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 2288.16 yuan/kilogram (10.17 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 2569.09 yuan/kilogram (11.42 dollars/ounce) [53][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sector, some varieties are selected to provide options strategies and suggestions [9]. - An options strategy report is prepared for each options variety according to the underlying market analysis, options factor research, and options strategy suggestions [9]. - It is recommended to construct an options portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different options varieties [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - Presents the underlying contracts, at - the - money strike prices, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various options [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Displays the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of different options [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions 3.3.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: In terms of fundamentals, data release is delayed, and there are changes in supply. The market shows a weak - biased trend. Options strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: Supply has no significant increase, and chemical demand supports the price. The market is in a weak - biased shock. Strategies involve a bear spread of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Inventory is expected to increase, and the market is weak. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory is expected to increase, and the market is weak. Strategies include a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **PVC**: Inventory shows a mixed trend, and the market is in a weak rebound. A long collar strategy for spot hedging is suggested [11]. 3.3.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Inventory is at a medium level, and the market is in a warming - up trend. A short - neutral call + put option combination strategy is recommended [12]. 3.3.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Polyester load changes, and inventory is expected to decrease. Strategies include a bull spread of call options, a short - long - biased call + put option combination [12]. 3.3.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Capacity utilization changes, and the market is weak. Strategies include a bear spread and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory decreases, and the market is in a weak shock. Strategies include a bear spread, a short - volatility combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Production and capacity utilization decline, and the market is short - term weak. Strategies include a short - neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The continuous rebound of alumina prices still faces triple pressures, and attention should be paid to domestic and foreign policy changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Smelting End - Focus on Domestic Policy Implementation - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission's article raised market expectations for alumina supply contraction policies, leading to a significant rebound in futures prices [6] - The latest weekly alumina production is 183.8 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 517 million tons, with a weekly increase of 5.7 million tons. Since July, production has remained high, and demand is close to the policy ceiling, resulting in continuous oversupply. To achieve supply - demand balance, about 2.6 billion tons/year of production capacity (2.8% of the total) needs to be cut. In 2026, with 13.4 billion tons of planned projects, the oversupply pattern may intensify [7] 2. Ore End - Focus on Guinea's Price - Support Willingness - The short - term oversupply at the smelting end is difficult to change, and the bauxite price at the cost end is the core contradiction. After the rainy season in Guinea, ore shipments increased, and the restart of the AXIS mine in early December exacerbated the bauxite oversupply. The latest sea - floating inventory of bauxite reached 15.01 billion tons, and the port inventory was 26.02 billion tons. High inventory and shrinking downstream profits drove the bauxite price down. A large Guinean mine will lower the Q1 2026 long - term price by $7.5 to $66.5/ton [14] - The reversal of bauxite prices depends on large - scale overseas supply contraction. The FOB cost of Guinean bauxite is in the range of $20 - $50/ton, and the sea freight from Guinea to China is $20 - $25/ton. The CIF price of $60 - $65/ton is expected to be a strong support, corresponding to an alumina cost support of 2450 - 2550 yuan/ton. If the price falls below this range, the Guinean government may have a strong willingness to support prices [15] 3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - Need to Be Digested - The standard warehouse receipts of alumina have a 180 - day validity period. The concentrated expiration of warehouse receipts in December, January, and February may drive the futures price to be at a discount for delivery, suppressing the short - term sharp rebound of futures prices [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of precious metals has ebbed, but the copper price still has strong support due to tight supply in the copper industry and potential downstream consumption recovery. The aluminum price has a strong support as well, with low inventory and possible consumption increase after price decline. Lead shows a supply - demand weak pattern, and low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up. Zinc's fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin's supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields. Nickel's short - term price bottom may have emerged. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. Alumina's supply - side reform needs actual production cuts. Stainless steel may rise if the nickel ore supply quota tightens. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly volatile [2][5][8][11][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The London copper rose 0.45% to $12,187 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,060 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,450 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 21,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the copper price has strong support. If the price continues to adjust, downstream consumption may improve. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan per ton, and for the London copper 3M is $12,000 - 12,500 per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The London aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,950 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,320 yuan per ton. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and possible consumption recovery support the price. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan per ton, and for the London aluminum 3M is $2,920 - 2,980 per ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.40% to 17,477 yuan per ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The primary lead supply is loose, the secondary lead supply is contracting, and the lead market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up, but the exit of long - positions may impact the price [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.34% to 23,271 yuan per ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are weak. The exit of long - positions may impact the price [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.17% to 334,590 yuan per ton. The supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan per ton, and for the overseas London tin is $39,000 - 43,000 per ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.81% to 126,080 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rose [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price bottom of nickel may have emerged. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan per ton, and for the London nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,000 per ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.03%, and the LC2605 contract fell 8.96% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.04% to 2,720 yuan per ton. The inventory of futures decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.35% to 12,910 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Policy expectations drive up raw material prices and inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.94% to 21,590 yuan per ton, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and supply disturbances [28].