1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current stainless - steel price shows a range - bound oscillatory trend, and market sentiment is easily affected by policy factors. Considering the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that the spot prices of 304 hot - and cold - rolled stainless steel will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12][13]. - The market trading atmosphere was generally weak this week. Only at the beginning of the week, driven by a short - term rise in futures prices, did market inquiries and trading show a slight improvement. As the market trend oscillated downward, the market's wait - and - see sentiment significantly increased, and the procurement pace of traders and downstream industries slowed down notably. High - priced resources were particularly difficult to sell [12][13]. - On the supply side, leading steel mills continued to use the goods - distribution model to regulate market supply, effectively avoiding the impact of concentrated arrivals on the market. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for demand. The actual steel demand in major downstream industries such as building decoration and home appliance manufacturing is relatively weak. Most end - users maintain a cautious procurement strategy, with no signs of concentrated restocking or inventory hoarding, and a strong resistance to high - priced resources. Market demand shows no obvious signs of improvement [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Futures and Spot Market**: On August 15th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - **Supply**: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][30][33]. - **Demand**: From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][44][47]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week. The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][55][58]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [12][66]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi on August 15th was 13,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.54%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 13,010 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.19% [12][19]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about 210 yuan lower than the main contract (-7), and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 110 yuan lower than the main contract (+3). The market position was 245,091 lots, a month - on - month increase of 3.91% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 75 (-10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 135 (-25) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July was 6.48% [12][30]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel in July reached 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%. The cold - rolled output of 300 - series stainless steel in July was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [12][33]. - It is estimated that the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia in July was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [36]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [39]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to July 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%. In July alone, the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40% [12][44]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was +14.4% [12][47]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In July, the automobile sales volume was 2.5934 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66% [50]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0789 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. The inventory of futures warrants this week was 103,300 tons, an increase of 294 tons from last week [12][55]. - The social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel this week were 198,900 tons, 644,500 tons, and 235,600 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 1.99% month - on - month. The floating inventory of stainless steel this week was 59,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58.02%, and the unloading volume was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.66% [12][58]. 3.6. Cost Side - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the quoted price for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 10.9516 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.98% [63]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 930 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan/nickel from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently operating at a loss of 101 yuan/nickel [66]. - This week, the quoted price for chrome ore was 55 yuan/dry ton, the same as last week. The quoted price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,000 yuan/50 - base tons, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base tons from last week. In July, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 801,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.38% [69]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 665 yuan/ton, with a profit margin of - 4.83%. As downstream consumption sentiment warms up, the situation of steel mills has improved [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated. In terms of supply, the slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand continued to limit import supplements. Yunnan faced intensified raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi had a broken scrap - tin supply chain. In terms of demand, it was the off - season, with traditional consumption areas weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, it had limited impact on overall demand. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly. Overall, short - term supply was tight and demand was weak, but as Myanmar's resumption of production advanced, tin prices were expected to fluctuate. The short - term operating range of domestic tin prices was 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin prices was 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [11][12][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The slow resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar and blocked land transportation in Thailand restricted imports. In June 2025, China's tin concentrate imports were 11,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.08%. From January to June, the total imports were 62,130 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.41%. The mineral exploitation license in the Wa State of Myanmar had been approved, and significant recovery of tin ore supply was expected in the fourth quarter [12] - **Supply Side**: Yunnan was constrained by raw - material shortages, with smelters' tin ore inventories generally less than 30 days. High competition for procurement led to high processing costs for low - grade ores, and rising power costs dampened production willingness. Some manufacturers planned maintenance. Jiangxi faced a broken scrap - tin supply chain, with the secondary material circulation volume down over 30% year - on - year, restricting refined production capacity. In July 2025, refined tin output was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% and a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 87,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.95% [12] - **Demand Side**: Off - season consumption was poor. Downstream factories' orders were low, and they were cautious about restocking tin raw materials. In different fields, photovoltaic tin - bar orders in East China declined after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, and the production schedule of home - appliance enterprises in July decreased significantly. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics grew weakly, and the market was wait - and - see. The demand for tin in tin - plated sheets and the chemical industry was relatively stable [12] - **Summary**: Short - term supply was tight, demand was weak, and tin prices were expected to fluctuate, with domestic tin prices in the range of 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton and LME tin prices in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 US dollars/ton [12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market No other content except for the source information and some data charts is provided, so no further summary can be made. 3. Cost Side - Tin ore supply was tight in the short term, and processing fees remained low [26] 4. Supply Side - The report presents multiple charts related to domestic refined tin production, recycled tin production, production and operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi, export and import profits, domestic and Indonesian import and export volumes, etc., but no additional written summary content is provided. 5. Demand Side - **Semiconductor**: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [45] - **PC and Smartphone**: In Q2 2025, global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption remained sluggish, with global smartphone shipments expected to increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units in 2025. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated consumer electronics growth, but the demand recovery was limited [48][51] - **Automobile**: In the first half of 2025, new - energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year [54] - **Home Appliance**: The first five months saw a near - 100% year - on - year increase in photovoltaic installation due to the installation rush, but the actual impact was less than expected [61] - **Other Fields**: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while PVC production increased slightly in the first half of the year [64] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet from January 2023 to June 2025, including refined tin production, exports, imports, social inventory, inventory changes, and apparent consumption [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices due to significant price drops suppressing supply and the current bottom - building stage. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices may have risen too much and need to consolidate through oscillations. There is a risk of prices rising and then falling back [11]. - The market logic for bulls is the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year. The main reason for bears is the dull demand reality and the expected decline in demand due to the US tariff - increasing policy [13]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and decrease processing profit. The maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the 20250704 monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a huge impact and was a significant macro - bullish factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price increase in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices, but in the short term, beware of the risk of prices rising and then falling back. After the sharp decline on August 2, 2025, the outlook for rubber prices is not pessimistic [11]. - The key points of rubber RU: prices are oscillating with a bullish bias. Pay attention to the overall rise - fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies in the short term. The market logic for bulls and bears is different, and it is recommended to focus on the long - RU2601 and short - RU2511 spread trading strategy [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [26]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, etc. are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [42]. - Black commodities and rubber follow a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [45]. 3.4 Cost Side - The general view on the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [53]. - Rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, and vice versa [53]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate data of tire factories shows that the full - steel tire operating rate is 63.09% (2.09%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is highly prosperous but is expected to decline slightly in the future [63][66]. 3.6 Supply Side - Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are still significant differences in the mid - term supply expectations, with some expecting small fluctuations and others expecting an increase in production. There are also market expectations of a small - scale rubber purchasing and storage plan [13]. - In May 2025, rubber production and export data showed different year - on - year and month - on - month changes in different regions [104][105].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].

铜周报 2025/08/16 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 波动下降，等待进一步驱动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比持平，冷料供应边际平稳。消息面，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，埃尔特尼恩 特（EI Teniente）铜矿的冶炼厂已经重启运行。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.4至8.6万吨，LME库存微增至15.6万吨，COMEX库存增加0.3至24.2万吨。上 海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货180元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水93.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年7月我国未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，环比增加 1.6万吨，同比增加9.6%，1-7月累计进口量为3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro sentiment is high, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600 - point mark, and the capital market sentiment has turned warm. Along with the "anti - involution" policy of domestic chemical enterprises, the polyolefin reverse spread market has stabilized. Currently, the crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. In the first half of the year, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.5 million tons; 4.5 million tons of PP production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.9 million tons. Against the background that the supply - side pressure of the polyolefin 09 contract has not been falsified, even if the agricultural film orders at the demand - side rebound, the upward momentum of the polyolefin seasonal peak season is limited [15][16]. 3. Summaries according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - level Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The domestic macro sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600 points, and the capital market sentiment has improved. The weekly increase rates of polyethylene and polypropylene are in the order of cost > futures > spot [15]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The cost - side support has weakened [15]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 84.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.53%, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%, and a decrease of 5.72% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 78.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74%, a year - on - year increase of 8.51%, and a decrease of 9.16% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the PE production capacity will face greater pressure in August [15]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic PE import volume was 959,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. The PP import volume was 153,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.78%. The import profit has decreased, and the PE supply from North America has decreased, reducing the import - side pressure. In June, the PE export volume was 96,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95% and a year - on - year increase of 48.84%. The PP export volume was 209,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.29% and a year - on - year increase of 39.35%. The 40% transit tariff imposed by the US on Vietnam, the largest destination of China's PP exports, may hinder PP exports [15]. - **Demand**: The PE downstream operating rate is 39.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.45%. The PP downstream operating rate is 49.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59%. At the end of the seasonal off - season, no increase in downstream agricultural film orders has been seen [15]. - **Inventory**: The PE production enterprise inventory is 444,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 13.76% and a year - on - year destocking of 2.63%; the PE trader inventory is 60,900 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.48%. The PP production enterprise inventory is 587,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 0.07% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 10.25%; the PP trader inventory is 179,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 4.06%; the PP port inventory is 60,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.98% [15]. - **Prediction and Strategy**: This week, the reference oscillation range for polyethylene (LL2509) is (7200 - 7500); for polypropylene (PP2509), it is (7000 - 7300). It is recommended to continue holding the LL9 - 1 reverse spread position for profit - taking [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In August, there are many PE production plans, and the LL - PP spread may oscillate weakly [65]. 3.3 Cost - side - **Overall Cost Changes**: The oil - based cost has decreased significantly. Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00% [15]. - **LPG - related Situation**: The gross profit of major refineries has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased. In July, the LPG shipment volume rebounded, and the supply from the Middle East continued to increase [97][117]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 62.00% oil - based, 19.00% light - hydrocarbon - based, 15.00% coal - based, 3.00% methanol - based, and 1.00% purchased ethylene - based [151]. - **Capacity and Production Plan**: The total domestic PE production capacity has been increasing. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of production capacity has been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons is yet to be put into operation. Some projects have been postponed [155][157]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PE capacity utilization rate and maintenance reduction volume have shown certain trends over time [160][162].

04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 区间思路 生猪周报 2025/08/16 010-60167188 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价普遍小涨后回落，整体窄幅波动，周内均重维持平稳，局部降重继续进行，局部有压栏惜售迹象，周内肥标差小幅反 弹，屠宰量环比仍增加；具体看，河南均价周涨0.1元至13.9元/公斤，周内最高14元/公斤，四川均价周涨0.15元至13.56元/公斤，周内最 高13.66元/公斤，广东均价周落0.44元至14.96元/公斤；养殖端降重行为接近尾声，出栏节奏放缓，需求端随着北方降温存在小幅回暖空间， 预计本周猪价环比平稳，局部或小幅上涨。 ◆ 供应端：6月官方母猪存栏为4043万头，环比小升，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.7%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或导致25年基本面弱于24 年；不过，当前政策端强制去产能的预期较强，或在今年无明显亏损的背景下改善明年的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats overall closed higher. The bullish factors such as the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's imposition of temporary margins on Canadian rapeseed stimulated the market. However, the actual weak consumption and rumors of Australian rapeseed purchases led to profit - taking. The high - frequency data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from August 1st to 15th increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. The strong pattern of oils and fats is difficult to change in the short term [11]. - The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons. India may have started the restocking process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will show a slight downward trend, the export willingness of palm oil will increase after the production rises, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected US biodiesel policy draft, the limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expected increase in oil production, the relatively high near - term production of palm oil in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, and the adjustment of demand by major importing countries [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: The three major oils and fats closed higher this week. The bullish factors included the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's measures against Canadian rapeseed. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil exports in August was good. The supply - demand of Southeast Asian palm oil was basically balanced, and the observable oil inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The price of domestic rapeseed oil was also pushed up by the tension in China - Canada trade relations [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the US will increase the industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed production will increase by 100,000 tons to 19.25 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India may start the restocking process [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, the export willingness of palm oil will increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, multiple factors support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, the current high valuation restricts the upside space [11][12][13]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. No relevant content is provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2510, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 10, and the basis of 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [18][20][23][26] 3.3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, and the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32][33] - **Palm Production Area Weather**: The report provides charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm production areas, as well as charts related to the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][36] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report presents the charts of the total domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [42] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It shows the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysian and Indonesian producing areas [44][46][48][49] 3.5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report presents the charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [53] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed [56] 3.6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transaction**: The report presents the charts of the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the weekly performance of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and terminal products. It points out that the market is in a state of waiting for the peak season. Although there are some improvements in the terminal, the overall upstream valuation is still suppressed by the weak performance of the terminal and polyester. It also suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last week, the price fluctuated. The supply side saw an increase in load, with some domestic and overseas device changes. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load, but the overall load in August decreased. The inventory continued to decline in July - August. The PXN fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11]. - **PTA**: The price also fluctuated last week. The supply side had an increase in load, but the overall load in August decreased due to more maintenance. The new device put into production increased the supply pressure. The demand side saw an increase in polyester load, and the terminal showed some improvement. The inventory continued to accumulate. The processing fee rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the peak season [12]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated last week. The supply side had a decrease in load, mainly due to the decline in ethylene - based load. The subsequent load is expected to increase. The demand side is similar to PTA. The inventory in ports and downstream factories increased. The valuation is relatively high, and there is a downward pressure on the short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis rebounded, and the spread was weak. The trading volume was small, and the open interest was stable [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was continuously weak, and the spread fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest were at a relatively high level [42]. - **MEG**: The trading volume and open interest were at a low level [60]. 3.3 p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The device load increased. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes in operation status. The new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [72][74]. - **Import**: The import volume in June was stable [77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in June [85]. - **Cost - profit**: The PXN fluctuated, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending was weak, and the US - South Korea aromatics spread was also weak [89][96][105]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: The new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 has been or will be put into production. The load in June decreased, and the export volume was low [129][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased from a low level [137]. - **Profit - valuation**: The processing fee was repaired [140]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The Zhengdakai Phase I was put into production. The ethylene device had an accident, and the load of the syngas - based device was at a historical high. The new capacity of Ningxia Kunpeng Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and BASF will be put into production in the future [144][148]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased this week [158]. - **Cost**: The coal price decreased, and the ethylene price increased slightly [168]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated. The operating rate increased, and the export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of long - filament was neutral, the inventory of staple fiber increased, and the absolute inventory of bottle chips was high. The profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [186][189][192][198][201][212]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate increased. The orders of textile enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, and the raw material inventory increased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing decreased, and the export was weak [214][222][226].