Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global new - crop soybean production has been marginally reduced, and the total output is now equal to the total demand. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. With large domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories but fewer near - month purchases, the de - stocking rate is expected to accelerate, and soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. - For palm oil, the outlook for first - quarter inventory depends on production and export data. If production remains high and exports are sluggish, prices may decline unilaterally; if production returns to a lower - than - normal trend, it could stimulate buying and drive up prices. Short - term operations guided by high - frequency data are recommended [8]. - For sugar, the raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of Brazil's ethanol conversion price. After the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest in February next year, international sugar prices may rebound. With a decreasing supply of imported sugar in China, the price may continue to rebound in the short term [12]. - For cotton, the market had anticipated the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The current price is at a recent high with increased volatility. Fundamentally, the off - season is not weak, and the supply - demand balance, combined with positive expectations, supports the price. It is advisable to wait for a pullback to go long [16][17]. - For eggs, after a price drop, there is reluctance to sell in the spot market, and with upcoming consumer stocking and chicken culling, the market outlook is improving. However, the absolute supply pressure still weighs on the spot and near - month contracts. The futures market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. Short - term selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the upper pressure for far - month contracts are recommended [20]. - For hogs, the combination of reduced group sales and the entry of second - round fattening has led to a less - than - expected price drop after the Winter Solstice, causing more short - covering in the futures market. Spot strength may continue in the short term. However, the current supply tightness is mainly structural, and the large - scale supply and heavy pig weights remain the main factors. A strategy of selling on rallies for near - month contracts and long - term attention to the lower support for far - month contracts is maintained [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Brazil's soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and Argentina has good soil moisture but less rainfall in some areas in the future. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 30 yuan/ton on Monday, with weak trading volume and high pick - up volume. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.0644 million tons, up from 1.8404 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days increased by 0.22 days to 9.45 days, soybean inventory decreased by 400,000 tons (but was about 500,000 tons higher year - on - year), and oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 30,000 tons (about 460,000 tons higher year - on - year) [2]. - **Weather**: Forecasts show that there will be more rainfall in the main soybean - growing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks, while the main producing provinces in Argentina will have less rainfall. The weather situation needs continuous monitoring [2]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% in the first 25 days of December compared to the same period. Ship - tracking data indicates mixed export trends. In the domestic market on Monday, palm oil prices declined slightly, while rapeseed oil prices rose, and domestic palm oil inventory is high. The basis for various oils is as follows: Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil 05 - 40 (0) yuan/ton, Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil 05 + 500 (0) yuan/ton, and East China rapeseed oil 05 + 700 (0) yuan/ton [6]. - **Argentina Situation**: Argentina exported 6.48 million tons of soybean oil in the first 11 months of this year, less than in 2024. With reduced soybean processing expected, further shipments are likely to be lower than last year. Argentina's soybean inventory at the beginning of December was 4.5 million tons, lower than last year [6]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices dropped slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 0.61%. Spot prices in various regions also declined. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 57 yuan/ton [10]. - **Import and Production Data**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November, the cumulative import was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of the end of November, imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons. Brazil's mid - southern region's sugar production and cane - crushing volume in the second half of November decreased significantly year - on - year, and India's cumulative sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year [11]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton or 0.69%. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B increased, and the basis between the spot and the main contract was 1,106 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry News**: In December 2025, Xinjiang held a meeting to discuss reducing cotton planting area. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of December 26, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.7%, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were generally stable with minor adjustments. The average price in the main producing areas rose slightly to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream market had slow sales, and traders were less willing to buy. It is expected that today's prices may be stable in some areas and decline in others [19]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly rose, with some areas seeing small declines. The average price in Henan increased by 0.16 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, while in Sichuan, it decreased by 0.04 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. Some farmers reduced their sales at the end of the month, which was beneficial to prices, but the slaughterhouses' acceptance of high prices was limited, and the trading volume was low [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. - For rubber, the price is oscillating weakly. Bulls and bears have different views. The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [8][9][11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [15][16]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [18][19]. - For polypropylene, with expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [20][21]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [23][24]. - For PTA, after short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [25][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline, at 434.80 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed changes in refined oil inventories, with a 1.49% overall increase in refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had varying declines. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2161 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was 137 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market is in short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and expected port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices remained unchanged, with a total basis of - 25 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: The market is oscillating higher. With improved supply - demand conditions, lower inventory, and support from export policies and costs, it is expected to build a bottom through oscillation. At low prices, consider buying on dips [5][6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple previously strong varieties declined, and the rubber price oscillated weakly. The tire开工率 showed mixed changes, and the domestic natural rubber social inventory increased [8][10]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy is neutral, with a partial closing of the hedge of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 recommended [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 55 yuan to 4777 yuan. The cost - side prices were mostly stable. The overall开工率 was 77.2%, with a 0.2% decline. The downstream开工率 was 44.5%, with a 0.9% decline. Factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals show low comprehensive corporate profits, high supply, and weak domestic demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was unchanged, with an expanded basis. The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell, with a strengthened basis. Supply - side开工率 increased, and demand - side开工率 showed mixed changes. Port inventories of both increased [15]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low with large upward valuation repair space. Before the first quarter of next year, consider going long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6453 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decline. The spot price rose 50 yuan to 6340 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 increased slightly, and inventory decreased. The downstream average开工率 decreased [18]. - **Strategy**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the price may have bottomed. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and high - level inventory reduction, consider going long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6274 yuan/ton, an 18 - yuan decline. The spot price was unchanged at 6250 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 decreased slightly, and inventory showed mixed changes. The downstream average开工率 decreased [20]. - **Strategy**: With expected supply surplus expansion and seasonal oscillation in downstream demand, the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out after the supply surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [21]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 286 yuan to 7270 yuan. PX CFR fell 28 dollars to 891 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. Import volume increased, and inventory increased [23]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory slightly before the maintenance season. In the short - term, beware of correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [24]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 158 yuan to 5122 yuan. The East China spot price fell 110 yuan to 5065 yuan. The load decreased slightly, and some plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and inventory decreased. The spot and futures processing fees increased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: After short - term destocking, it is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. In the short - term, beware of over - expectation correction risks, and in the medium - term, look for long - buying opportunities [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan. The East China spot price rose 21 yuan to 3687 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and some domestic and overseas plants had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased, and port inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy**: The overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all experiencing such a market condition [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial - long seller strategy and a bull spread combination strategy of call options; for index options, in addition to the above strategies, an arbitrage strategy of synthetic long futures with options and short futures can also be constructed [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Financial Market Index Overview - The closing prices of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (3,963.68), Shenzhen Component Index (13,603.89), and Shanghai 50 Index (3,045.40) are presented, along with their corresponding changes and trading volumes [4]. Option - related Data Option - Based ETF Market Overview - Data on multiple ETF options including the Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, etc., such as closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts are provided [5]. Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Volume and position PCR data of various option varieties are given, which can be used to analyze market trends and turning points [6][7]. Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - Pressure and support points of different option varieties are identified from the exercise prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [8][10]. Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of different option varieties, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility, are presented, providing a basis for analyzing market volatility [11][12]. Strategy and Recommendations Sector Classification - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board, with specific ETFs and indices assigned to each sector [13]. Strategy for Each Sector - For different sectors such as the financial stock sector (Shanghai 50ETF), large - cap blue - chip stock sector (Shanghai 300ETF), etc., strategies including directional strategies, volatility strategies, and spot long - covered strategies are proposed based on the analysis of underlying market conditions, option factors [14][15][16]. Option Charts - Option charts of various varieties such as the Shanghai 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, etc., including price trends, trading volume and open interest distributions, PCR trends, and implied volatility trends, are provided to visually present market conditions [17][33][48][67][83][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. The report analyzes the underlying market, option factors, and offers option strategy recommendations for each option variety [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 433, with a decrease of 11 and a decline rate of -2.44% [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report provides the trading volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, trading volume PCR, volume PCR changes, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR changes of various energy and chemical options. The volume PCR and open interest PCR are mainly used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the report shows the pressure and support levels of various energy and chemical option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 400 [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various energy and chemical options. The weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions - **Energy Options (Crude Oil and LPG)**: For crude oil, due to factors such as the delay of data release by the US Energy Department, the interception of Venezuelan VLCCs by the US military, and the decline in exports from Kazakhstan and the Middle East, the market shows a weak trend. Options strategies include constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies for spot hedging. For LPG, with limited supply growth and support from chemical demand, the market is also weak. Strategies involve constructing bear put spread strategies and short - biased call + put option combination strategies [8][10]. - **Alcohol Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol)**: Methanol has a high inventory expectation, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies and long collar strategies. Ethylene glycol has an inventory accumulation expectation, and the market is bearish. Strategies include constructing bear put spread strategies and short - volatility strategies [10][11]. - **Olefin Options (PVC)**: PVC's inventory has decreased, but the market is still under pressure. The strategy mainly focuses on spot long hedging by holding spot long + buying at - the - money put options + selling out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Rubber Options**: Rubber's inventory is at a medium level, and the production of full - latex is squeezed. The market shows a warming trend. Strategies include constructing neutral - biased call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Polyester Options (PTA)**: PTA's inventory is decreasing, and the market is short - term strong. Strategies include constructing bull call spread strategies and long - biased call + put option combination strategies [12]. - **Alkali Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash)**: Caustic soda's capacity utilization rate has increased, but the market is still weak. Strategies include constructing bear spread strategies and long collar strategies. Soda ash's inventory has decreased, and the market is in a low - level weak shock. Strategies include constructing bear spread strategies and short - volatility combination strategies [13]. - **Urea Options**: Urea's production has decreased, and the market is short - term weak. Strategies include constructing neutral - biased call + put option combination strategies and spot hedging strategies [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility strategy for sellers can be constructed as they are trending upwards; for black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull - spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding and rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2602) closed at 101,380, up 3,270 (3.33%), with a trading volume of 28.70 million lots and an open interest of 25.21 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2602) closed at 22,520, up 135 (0.60%), with a trading volume of 35.36 million lots and an open interest of 29.96 million lots [3] - Zinc (ZN2602) closed at 23,215, up 85 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 14.57 million lots and an open interest of 9.74 million lots [3] - And so on for other metals including lead, nickel, tin, etc. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.45 (down 0.13), and the open interest PCR is 0.74 (up 0.08) [4] - For aluminum, the volume PCR is 0.25 (down 0.29), and the open interest PCR is 0.52 (down 0.04) [4] - Similar data are provided for other metals 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper, the pressure level is 98,000 and the support level is 90,000 [5] - For aluminum, the pressure level is 23,000 and the support level is 21,400 [5] - Other metals also have their corresponding pressure and support levels 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For copper, the at - the - money implied volatility is 30.23%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.68% (up 5.44%) [6] - For aluminum, the at - the - money implied volatility is 18.46%, the weighted implied volatility is 22.02% (up 3.56%) [6] - Implied volatility data are available for all metals 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [9] - Similar strategies are provided for zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - call + put option combination strategy for a short - bias; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + sell call options [13] - **Iron ore**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [13] - Similar strategies are provided for ferroalloys, industrial silicon, and glass

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, oils, by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a strong consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a narrow - range bullish consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, soybean No. 1 (A2603) has a latest price of 4,105, a rise of 13, and a trading volume of 1.05 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different option varieties are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No. 1 is 0.35, and the open - interest PCR is 0.93 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open - interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No. 1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No. 1 is 10.81% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No. 1**: The fundamental situation is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean purchases and Brazilian soybean import costs. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals show a production decline and an export increase. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The downstream consumption is weak. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 By - products Options - **Pig**: The supply is reduced, and the demand is in the peak season. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is relatively weak. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The cold - storage inventory is decreasing. The option strategy includes constructing a long - delta call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The inventory is decreasing. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Thailand is declining, and the domestic industrial inventory is increasing. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton production in Xinjiang has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a bull - spread call option combination strategy, a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The domestic corn oil market price is in a weak state. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise further due to the marginal easing of liquidity in the US financial market, the continuous rise of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar, and the tight supply of copper mines, but the accumulation of inventory may suppress the upward trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to continue rising under the influence of the continuous rise of precious metals and the increase of copper price, despite the current high price and the off - season demand [4][5] - The lead price is driven by the marginal contraction of the domestic secondary lead supply and extremely low visible inventory, but the price shock caused by the departure of long - position funds in precious metals should be vigilant [7][8] - The zinc industry's fundamentals are still weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to the high sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors [9][10] - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, and it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] - The lithium carbonate price is affected by factors such as the change of spot pricing method and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [18][19][20] - The alumina price is affected by factors such as the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction [22][23] - The stainless steel price may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25][26] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strong cost and supply disruptions [28][29] Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME was closed. Driven by supply - side disturbances and the rise of precious metals, the copper price continued to strengthen, and the Shanghai copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark. The weekly inventory of SHFE copper increased by 16,000 tons to 112,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in the Shanghai and Guangdong regions expanded, and the downstream operating rate decreased [1] - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to rise further, but the impact of inventory accumulation on the upward trend should be noted. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M, it is 12,400 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm macro - sentiment, the high prices of precious metals and copper, the aluminum price fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58% to 22,405 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased by 20,000 to 674,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount in the East China region was 190 yuan/ton, and the year - end spot trading was still weak [4] - **Strategy View**: The current high aluminum price and the off - season demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the low inventory pattern of LME aluminum remains unchanged. The aluminum price is expected to rise further. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,920 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 1.37% to 17,548 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 11,600 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [7] - **Strategy View**: The primary lead supply is loose, and the secondary lead supply contracts marginally. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the domestic visible inventory is at an absolute low and continues to decline. The lead price is expected to be strong, but the price shock caused by precious metals should be vigilant [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.49% to 23,192 yuan/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,200 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory declines, and the zinc smelting profit stabilizes. The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to sector sentiment [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading is light [11][12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin, it is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 126,750 yuan/ton, up 1.10%. The spot premium of various brands was stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared due to the expected tax on cobalt in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract, it is 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.56% to 120,913 yuan, up 15.08% for the week. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The LC2601 contract closed at 130,520 yuan, up 5.67%, and up 17.16% for the week. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [18][19] - **Strategy View**: The change of spot pricing method by Tianqi Lithium and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises are beneficial to the restoration of spot valuation. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 127,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the alumina index rose 5.23% to 2,748 yuan/ton. The position increased by 25,200 to 644,900 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 160,800 tons. The ore price was stable [22] - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of the AXIS mine. The over - capacity in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 11,745 to 182,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 607 tons. The social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% [25][26] - **Strategy View**: Driven by the Indonesian nickel ore quota plan in 2026, the stainless steel price continued to rise last week. The inventory decreased, and the cost was supported. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose first and then fell. The main AD2602 contract rose 0.21% to 21,390 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 21,700 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 70,400 tons. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 300 tons to 46,300 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The short - term price is expected to be strong [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is currently in an accelerating upward phase. However, from January next year to May when Powell officially steps down as the Fed Chairman, precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction," but this does not mean the end of the current upward cycle of gold and silver prices. The Trump administration has the motivation to implement broader fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new round of more aggressive interest - rate cuts after Powell's departure. The peak of gold and silver prices is expected to occur when the new Fed Chairman hints at the end of interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Market Quotes and Influencing Factors - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold rose 0.17% to 1018.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 6.03% to 19204.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold was reported at 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 79.68 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.04 [2]. - **Influencing Factors on Gold**: The expectation of the US's broader fiscal policy has further strengthened, driving the steady rise of gold prices. Facing the 2026 mid - term elections and low approval ratings, Trump is likely to adopt more aggressive expansionary fiscal policies, which will expand the US fiscal deficit and increase the long - term supply of US Treasuries. Gold's characteristic as a "substitute for credit currency" is more prominent compared to before Trump took office [2]. - **Influencing Factors on Silver**: The market is pricing in the Fed's aggressive easing next year due to the selection of the new Fed Chairman. Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, two members of the Trump camp, are likely to be nominated as candidates for the new Fed Chairman, and they support Trump's interest - rate cut policy. The expectation of the Fed's more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year has driven international silver prices to reach new historical highs [3]. 2. Strategy Suggestions - It is recommended to take profit on long positions in gold and silver when the hourly technical pattern weakens, and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 16752 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Data Summary - **Gold Data**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, and AuT + D all showed different degrees of changes. For example, the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract rose 1.26% to 4562.00 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume increased 19.47% to 17.91 million lots [7]. - **Silver Data**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and AgT + D also changed. For instance, the closing price of COMEX silver's active contract rose 10.85% to 79.68 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume of AgT + D increased 106.00% to 1034.37 tons [7]. 4. Price and Market Structure Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold; the relationship between the price of COMEX silver and trading volume, open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver; and the total open interest of gold and silver ETFs, as well as the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices [9][12][17][22][23][27][29][31][39][42][46]. 5. Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - **Gold Internal - External Price Difference**: On December 25, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 10.01 yuan/gram (- 44.44 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 0.38 yuan/gram (- 1.70 dollars/ounce) [53]. - **Silver Internal - External Price Difference**: On December 26, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 544.74 yuan/kilogram (2.42 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 604.90 yuan/kilogram (2.69 dollars/ounce) [53][61].