库存持续累积， 估值支撑走弱 PVC周报 2025/08/16 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2275元/吨，周同比下跌65元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比持平；兰炭陕西中料620元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润有所修复，乙烯制利润小幅下降，目前估值支撑较弱。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.3%，环比上升0.9%；其中电石法80%，环比上升1.3%；乙烯法81.3%，环比下降0.2%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升，主 因中泰阜康、福建万华开工提升，下周预期负荷回落。8月检修量下降，并且新装置逐渐释放产量，供应压力加大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度反倾销政策延期至9月底，三季度弱出口的压力缓解，存在雨季末抢出口的预期；三大下游开工上周持稳，管材负荷33%， 环比上升0.9%；薄膜负荷 ...

左侧布多 原油周报 2025/08/16 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 06 原油库存 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 2025/7/9 2025/ ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the improvement in downstream stainless - steel demand is limited, and nickel prices still face correction pressure. However, in the medium to long term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will provide strong support for nickel prices, and the new - year RKAB approval also poses potential positive factors. The downside space for nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term price range for the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract, it is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The rainy season in Sulawesi ended this week, leading to a short - term increase in nickel ore supply. Most RKAB approvals in Indonesia are nearly completed, with approved quotas of about 3.1 - 3.3 billion wet tons. The tight supply of nickel ore has eased, and short - term ore prices may decline slightly. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), and that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week) [12]. - **Ferronickel**: Supply decreased slightly due to low profit levels at iron plants. Stainless - steel supply remains low, with August production expected to be flat month - on - month. Downstream speculative restocking in the demand side provides some support for stainless - steel demand, and social inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks. It is expected that stainless - steel supply will increase slightly, driving up ferronickel demand. Overall, the surplus pressure of ferronickel has eased slightly, and prices are stable with an upward trend. A domestic iron plant's high - nickel ferronickel was traded at 950 yuan/nickel (ex - works tax - included) this week, and mainstream quotes rose to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (cargo - in - hold tax - included) [12]. - **Intermediate products**: For MHP, the external procurement demand from downstream nickel sulfate has been released, while the trading volume from traders is limited, resulting in a shortage of supply and a significant increase in coefficient prices. For high - grade nickel matte, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is relatively weak, market transactions are sluggish, and coefficient prices remain stable [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly this week and then declined, closing at 120,600 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.2% from last week. The release of US July CPI data strengthened market expectations of monetary easing, but the subsequent PPI data showed resilience, slightly cooling market expectations of interest - rate cuts. In the spot market, downstream orders in the alloy and electroplating industries are scarce, market transactions are dull, and spot prices mainly fluctuate with the futures market, with stable premiums and discounts [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined nickel prices**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 122,550 yuan/ton (down 410 yuan/ton, - 0.33% from last week), and that of Russian nickel was 120,750 yuan/ton (down 370 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from last week). The LME closing price was 15,195 US dollars (up 80 US dollars, + 0.53% from last week), and the SHFE closing price was 120,600 yuan (down 580 yuan, - 0.48% from last week) [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 211,700 tons (down 600 tons, - 0.27% from last week), SHFE inventory was 27,000 tons (up 800 tons, + 2.93% from last week), bonded - area inventory was 5,400 tons (unchanged from last week), nickel plate spot inventory was 37,500 tons (up 2,000 tons, + 5.53% from last week), and nickel bean spot inventory was 2,900 tons (unchanged from last week) [16]. - **Premium and discount**: As of August 15, the average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton from last week), and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from last week). The LME Cash/3M nickel discount was 207.88 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than the same period last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ex - works price of domestic high - nickel pig iron on Friday was 916 - 935 yuan/nickel point (average up 7 yuan/nickel point from last week), and the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,300 - 27,790 yuan/ton (average up 105 yuan/ton from last week) [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 15, nickel ore port inventories reached 1,095.16 million tons, up 6.0% from the same period last week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week), and the CIF price of 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore was 57 US dollars/ton (unchanged from last week) [34][37]. - **Intermediate products**: In June, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,000 nickel tons (basically flat month - on - month), and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons (significantly up month - on - month). As of August 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,684 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient to LME nickel of 0.86 (unchanged from last week); the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,054 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient to LME nickel of 0.88 (unchanged from last week) [44][49]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel production reached 36,200 tons, maintaining a historically high level [54]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [56][58]. - **Inventory**: Global refined nickel inventories increased slightly this week. According to Mysteel data, on August 15, the combined visible inventory in China and LME reached 252,000 tons, up 1,027 tons from the same period last month [63]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows production and net import volume data of nickel sulfate in China, but specific supply trends are not clearly summarized [69]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [72]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents the production cost, price, and profit - margin data of battery - grade nickel sulfate, but specific trends are not clearly summarized [74]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides quarterly supply - demand balance data from 2023 to 2025, showing that the overall supply of nickel exceeds demand, but the surplus is gradually narrowing. In 2025, the total supply is expected to be 3.7688 million nickel tons, and the total demand is 3.6024 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 8,000 yuan/ton, while keeping an eye on potential industry policies [15]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on prices and the progress of capacity integration [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights** - Polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; DMC production was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons [13]. - The spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [14]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [14]. - Industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; from January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%; the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - For industrial silicon, 553 and 421 are at a premium to the futures, costs are basically stable, supply continues to increase this week, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains high [15]. - For polysilicon, the futures are at a premium, supply increases week-on-week, profit is positive, demand improves slightly, and inventory remains high [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed material (SMM) was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week; N-type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Production** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; in July 2025, production was 321,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9,800 tons; from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 464,500 tons or 17.56% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas** - No specific production data for each main producing area was summarized in the text, but there are relevant production trend charts [32][34]. - **Production Cost** - As of August 15, 2025, electricity prices in main producing areas were flat week-on-week, and silica prices were stable week-on-week [43]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [46]. - **Visible Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 267,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,100 tons; market inventory was 172,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 253,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; in July (SMM), production was 106,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 679,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.03% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduled Production** - In July (Baichuan Yingfu), the polysilicon operating rate was 39.23%, a month-on-month increase of 3.91 percentage points. SMM expects August production to be 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon factory inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 267,900 tons; inventory (SMM) was 242,000 tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. - **Cost and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon production cost (Baichuan Yingfu) was 41,453.24 yuan/ton, a slight week-on-week increase; gross profit was 3,784.86 yuan/ton [63]. - **Downstream Products** - **Silicon Wafer**: As of August 15, 2025, weekly production (SMM) was 12.1 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; in July, production was 52.75 GW, a month-on-month decrease of 6.09 GW; from January to July, cumulative production was 373.08 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 10.31%. Inventory was 19.8 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is predicted to be 53.29 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In July (SMM), production was 58.19 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 GW; the operating rate was 62.4%, a month-on-month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 388.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.06%. Inventory was 4.98 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is expected to be 59.15 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [74][77]. - **Component**: In July (SMM), production was 47.1 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 GW; the operating rate was 45.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 330.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. Inventory was 34.5 GW, continuing to rise week-on-week; August production is expected to be 46.82 GW, a decrease from July [82][85]. 05. Silicone - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons; in July, production was 206,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 1.4334 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.17% [92]. - **Price and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of silicone (SMM) was 11,400 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 750 yuan/ton; DMC gross profit (Baichuan Yingfu) was -1,659.38 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decline [95]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 48,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,400 tons [98]. 06. Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of August 15, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,130 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,410 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 120 yuan/ton; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [103]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53% [106]. - **Exports** - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [109].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpectedly positive USDA report, both domestic and international cotton prices rebounded. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, with the operating rate remaining at a historically low level and the pace of cotton inventory reduction slowing down. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the international market, the price of US cotton futures rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 67.48 cents per pound, up 0.84 cents per pound from the previous week, a increase of 1.26%. The December - March spread of US cotton weakened slightly, closing at - 1.55 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,120 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan per ton from the previous week, a increase of 2.32%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,216 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened significantly, closing at 1,163 yuan per ton on Friday, down 287 yuan per ton from the previous week. The January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, closing at 30 yuan per ton on Friday, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production forecast for August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was lowered by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; China's production forecast was raised by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts for Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was lowered by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was lowered by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, domestic and international spreads, and US cotton spreads, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [26][28][30]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection volume and total processing volume of domestic cotton [39]. - **Imports**: Include the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton, the cumulative and weekly export contract volume of the US to China, and the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton yarn [41][43][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **Sales Progress**: Include the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Inventory**: Include the weekly commercial inventory of domestic cotton, the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills [53][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Show the net positions of CFTC funds and commercial entities [59]. - **US Situation**: Include the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - to - excellent rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume, production and planted area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [61][63][70][72][73]. - **Brazil Situation**: Include the planted area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [75][78][80]. - **India Situation**: Include the planted area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [83][86][88].

Report Title - Aluminum Weekly Report: US Adjusts Aluminum Tariff Scope, Sentiment May Be Pressured [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The US-Russia leaders' talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives, which may put pressure on sentiment. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the strong aluminum product export data still supports the aluminum price. However, the pressure comes from the weak downstream consumption and the volatile trade situation. In the short term, the aluminum price may experience a volatile correction. The reference range for the domestic main contract this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 2,520 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [13] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at par with the futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.8 US dollars/ton [13] - **Imports and Exports**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports has narrowed [13] - **Demand**: According to Aizhi Consulting's research, the weekly operating rates of aluminum products were differentiated. The operating rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloys rebounded, while those of aluminum sheets, strips, aluminum rods, and aluminum foils declined. Currently, the improvement in downstream consumption is still not significant, and the spot trading is mediocre [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices were volatile. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.41% week-on-week (as of Friday's close), and LME 3M aluminum closed down 0.46% to 2,603 US dollars/ton [24] - **Term Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot discount in major regions narrowed oscillatingly [31] - **Spot Basis**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M turned to a slight premium [41] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit increased to 3,577 yuan/ton [46] - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots increased week-on-week. The LME inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons [49][52][55] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were stable [60] - **Alumina Price**: Both domestic and overseas alumina prices decreased [65] - **Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [70] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6% and a year-on-year production increase of 5.4%. The overall supply was relatively sufficient [75] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [78] - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee was oscillating. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to about 976,000 tons. With the rebound of the aluminum rod processing fee, the aluminum water ratio is expected to rebound in August [81] 6. Demand Side - **Output and Outbound Volume**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods was expected to increase month-on-month, slightly better than the same period last year. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots declined month-on-month. In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods dropped from a high level [86][90][92] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand expectation related to home appliances was weak. Currently, the real estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were fair, and the photovoltaic installation decreased significantly, and the related demand was also under pressure [100] 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [103] - **Aluminum Products and Recycled Aluminum**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [108] - **Bauxite and Alumina**: In June 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month-on-month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.7% [111]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiakeng lithium mine has ignited the bullish sentiment. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic lithium carbonate. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Recently, the supply side will be the focus of the market. The emotional fluctuations brought by news are significantly greater than the actual changes in the fundamentals. The rise in lithium prices will drive the supply of hard - rock resources in Africa, Australia and other places to fill the gap of domestic mines. The extent of domestic lithium carbonate destocking remains to be observed. Currently, the uncertainty of capital gaming is high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to the industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Period - spot Market**: On August 15, the morning quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 82,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 18.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, with a weekly increase of 12.92% [12][20]. - **Supply**: On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In June, China imported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12][32][41]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [12][48][57]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [12][64]. - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The pressure on high - cost hard - rock mines overseas has eased [12][75]. 2. Period - spot Market - On August 15, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index quoted 82,832 yuan in the morning, up 18.62% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, up 12.92% week - on - week [20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 450 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 8,660 yuan [26][27]. 3. Supply Side - On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 25.5% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.6% in the first seven months [32]. - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.8% in the first seven months. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.0% in the first seven months [35]. - The output of salt - lake lithium carbonate in July decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.6% from January to July. Some salt - lake mines reduced production or stopped production, and the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate declined during the peak season. The output of recycled lithium carbonate in July increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.4% from January to July [38]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. The total import of lithium carbonate in China from January to June was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium carbonate was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportions and weak growth [45]. - In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively [48]. - The total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to June were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to the previous year. The total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States from January to June were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year [51]. - In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [54][57]. 5. Inventory - On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [64]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to the rush for exports [67]. 6. Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month [75]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of poor consumption and high finished - product inventory. The primary lead ore inventory remains tight with processing fees declining rapidly. The primary lead smelting profit is good, and the primary lead operating rate has increased again. The recycled lead raw materials are in short supply, and the recycled lead operating rate has slightly declined. The battery operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is weaker than that of the same period in previous years. The finished - product inventory of lead - acid batteries is at a historical high, and the terminal consumption pressure is large. The social inventory of lead ingots maintains a slow accumulation trend. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly operate weakly [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.43% at 16,849 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 99,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 4 to $1,987.5/ton with a total position of 154,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 80 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30% [11]. - **Industry Information**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan received a notice from relevant departments that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expected to launch air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3 according to air - quality conditions, which may restrict the transportation of some vehicles [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6% [15]. - **Production**: In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total lead concentrate production was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore production was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total lead ore production was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days [21]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In July 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 18.2585 million pieces, and the net export weight of batteries was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 3.1% [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries of dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - **Overseas Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [65]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton [70]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton [73]. - **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [76]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead maintained a relatively high net short position. The net long position of investment funds in London Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Zinc ore's visible inventory is decreasing marginally, but the TC of zinc concentrate is still on an upward trend. The production schedule of zinc smelting is expected to be high, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is rising rapidly. Downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, and the domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The registered zinc ingot warrants overseas have reached a new low since 2024, but the reduction rate has slowed down slightly, the monthly spread of LME zinc has decreased marginally, and the structural disturbances in the LME market are gradually subsiding. In the medium term, the scenario of industry oversupply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.15% at 22,521 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 215,500 lots for unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S rose 18.5 to $2,835.5/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total open interest of 193,700 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,450 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -50 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -60 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis of -70 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $90/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 213,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Industry Information**: South American mining company Nexa Resources announced that its Cerro Pasco integrated mining area, which includes the Atacocha and El Porvenir mines, was partially shut down temporarily due to an illegal blockade by a small number of people from the San Juan de Milpo community. The mines involved have an annual zinc production of 63,000 - 74,000 metal tons and lead production of 34,000 - 39,000 metal tons, and the current production guidance remains unchanged [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of -32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of -13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, the zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 23.1% and a month - on - month change of 3%. From January to July, the total zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -17.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.5% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [39][41]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc has rebounded again. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, precious metal prices were relatively weak due to unexpected US inflation data. The market is closely watching Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If his remarks are dovish, it is recommended to go long on gold and silver at low prices. The expected trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: Affected by unexpected US inflation data, gold and silver prices were weak this week. Shanghai gold fell 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 0.80% to 9204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 2.21% to 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.27% to 38.02 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.85 [11]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected. These data suggest the impact of Trump's tariff policy on US prices, and Fed officials' views on inflation are divided [11]. - **Policy Expectations**: The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September with a probability of 92.1%, and another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will see the announcement of the new Fed chair, which may further boost rate - cut expectations [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index is approaching the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The Shanghai silver index is forming a high - level diamond pattern, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities around the Jackson Hole meeting [13][14]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: Gold and silver prices were weak, and both domestic and foreign gold and silver positions declined. As of August 15, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.95% to 423,600 lots, and COMEX gold decreased by 0.78% to 446,200 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.16% to 761,000 lots, and COMEX silver decreased by 3% to 156,400 lots [27][29][32]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 15, the total holding of gold ETFs was 2185.3 tons, and the total holding of foreign silver ETFs was 27,406 tons [37]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Trends**: The yield curve of US Treasury bonds and inflation expectations are presented through various charts. The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows that the Treasury General Account on the liability side replenished 5.115 billion US dollars, and the reverse repurchase balance decreased by 4.367 billion US dollars [49][52][58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected [63]. - **Employment Data**: As of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, lower than expected [66]. - **PMI and PPI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, both lower than expected [69]. - **Housing Data**: In June, the annualized number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, and the annualized number of building permits was 1.397 million, both higher than expected [72]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: The base spreads of gold and silver between TD and SHFE are presented through charts, and the spreads of both gold and silver have increased [75][77]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also presented through charts [81][83]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through charts [88][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through charts [93].